Final · 5 setsFri, Sep 4, 2026

North Carolina def. Colorado St. 3–2

North Carolina beat visiting Colorado St. 3-2 (25-19, 25-21, 21-25, 18-25, 16-14) on Fri, Sep 4, 2026. North Carolina's Bridget Malone led with 23 kills, and Carly Markham added 13 digs.

Data through · final Sep 4

Set12345Sets
CO ST19212525142
UNC25252118163

Win probability

North Carolina above 50 · Colorado St. below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 4SET 510050100+26.3% UNCrally 209 · set 5

Biggest swing: 26.3% to North Carolina — set 5, CO ST 13-14 UNC. Halle Jameson stuffed by Lauren Schutter & Laynie Smith. UNC win probability 49% → 75%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

CO ST 37.1%62.9% UNC

Colorado St. wins

3-0
7.8%
3-1
13.4%
3-2
15.9%

North Carolina wins

3-0
18.8%
3-1
24.1%
3-2
20.0%
CO ST break %
40.3% vs this opp
UNC break %
42.8% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01

    Halle Jameson stuffed by Lauren Schutter & Laynie Smith

    Set 5 · CO ST 13-14 UNC · UNC 49% → 75%

  2. 02
    Ella StowellAttack error+24.8%

    Attack error by Ella Stowell

    Set 5 · CO ST 14-16 UNC · UNC 75% → 100%

  3. 03
    Halle JamesonAttack error+20.8%

    Attack error by Halle Jameson

    Set 5 · CO ST 13-13 UNC · UNC 28% → 49%

  4. 04
    Halle JamesonKill+18.5%

    Kill by Halle Jameson (set by Eve Wilson)

    Set 5 · CO ST 14-14 UNC · CO ST 25% → 43%

  5. 05
    Safi HamptonKill+18.5%

    Kill by Safi Hampton (set by Carly Markham)

    Set 5 · CO ST 14-15 UNC · UNC 57% → 75%

  6. 06
    Eve WilsonKill+13.3%

    Kill by Eve Wilson (set by Erin Debiec)

    Set 5 · CO ST 13-11 UNC · CO ST 68% → 81%

  7. 07
    Eve WilsonAttack error+12.7%

    Attack error by Eve Wilson

    Set 5 · CO ST 12-11 UNC · UNC 19% → 32%

  8. 08
    Ella StowellKill+11.1%

    Kill by Ella Stowell (set by Erin Debiec)

    Set 5 · CO ST 9-6 UNC · CO ST 68% → 79%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
519846.23910180031.520.5
513423.3910000024417
514738.18400020132.516.5
512419.4213011012214
55423.043430101010.58.5
5217.1435000130010.52.5
5102.500111700002
5102.5003031610001
5000–002000000
11011.000000000001
Team totals6828161.248624857441411104
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
523651.33310151132.525.5
518343.3494017100018
58523.13010030052.510.5
56316.18802430052.510.5
5205.400000101646
5000–30101000001
56722-.04500010031.57.5
5000–1911800001
5001.0003001300000
5000–000300000
21011.000000000001
1000–000000000
1000–000000000
Team totals6424162.247584754422213105

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 4 CO ST · UNC 6

Set 1

19-25

Longest run 3 CO STUNC 4

Set 2

21-25

Longest run 3 CO STUNC 6

Set 3

25-21

Longest run 3 CO STUNC 3

Set 4

25-18

Longest run 4 CO STUNC 3

Set 5

14-16

Longest run 3 CO STUNC 3

Bars above the line = North Carolina leads, below = Colorado St. leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Colorado St.

SlotSideout %Break %
1
85%11/13
44%7/16
2
64%9/14
41%7/17
3
53%9/17
31%4/13
4
57%8/14
33%4/12
5
88%7/8
50%8/16
6
50%7/14
36%4/11
All
64%51/80
40%34/85

North Carolina

SlotSideout %Break %
1
61%11/18
44%7/16
2
67%10/15
27%4/15
3
53%8/15
40%6/15
4
80%8/10
47%7/15
5
50%7/14
36%4/11
6
54%7/13
13%1/8
All
60%51/85
36%29/80

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 5 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

209 rallies

#CO ST-UNCSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
11-0UNCCO STBlockedChelsea Thorpeblk Kekua Richards, Ella Stowell+1.8
2–73-4CO ST 2 · UNC 4
NCAA feed gap6 points not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+4.8
84-4CO STCO ST×3KillSophie Stephensonset Karsyn Fetzer+2.5
94-5CO STUNCKillLauren Schutterset Zoe Behrendt+1.8
105-5UNCCO STKillMaria Brunset Eve Wilson+1.9
115-6CO STUNCAttack errHalle Jameson+1.9
125-7UNCUNCAttack errEve Wilson+2.6
136-7UNCCO STKillHalle Jamesonset Erin Debiec+1.8
146-8CO STUNCKillSafi Hamptonset Sienna Cozza+1.8
156-9UNCUNCKillSafi Hampton+2.4
167-9UNCCO STAttack errMaria Brun+1.6
177-10CO STUNCAttack errElla Stowell+1.7
187-11UNCUNCBlockedElla Stowellblk Chelsea Thorpe, Jackie Taylor+2.2
198-11UNCCO STKillKekua Richardsset Maria Brun+1.4
209-11CO STCO STKillElla Stowellset Karsyn Fetzer+2.3
219-12CO STUNCBlockedMaria Brunblk Jackie Taylor, Chelsea Thorpe+1.8
2210-12UNCCO STAttack errChelsea Thorpe+1.7
2310-13CO STUNCServe errColorado St.+1.9
2410-14UNCUNCKillBridget Malone+2.3
2511-14UNCCO STKillKarsyn Fetzerset Maria Brun+1.4
2611-15CO STUNCKillBridget Maloneset Zoe Behrendt+1.7
2712-15UNCCO ST×3KillHalle Jamesonset Erin Debiec+1.4
2813-15CO STCO ST×3KillHalle Jamesonset Erin Debiec+2.5
2914-15CO STCO ST×3Attack errSafi Hampton+3.1
3014-16CO STUNCBlockedEve Wilsonblk Bridget Malone+2.5
3115-16UNCCO STKillMaria Brunset Erin Debiec+2.3
3215-17CO STUNCKillLaynie Smithset Sienna Cozza+2.6
3315-18UNCUNCBlockedHalle Jamesonblk Jackie Taylor, Laynie Smith+3.2
3416-18UNCCO STBlockedBridget Maloneblk Kekua Richards+1.9
3516-19CO STUNCKillSafi Hamptonset Sienna Cozza+2.4
3617-19UNCCO STKillHalle Jamesonset Erin Debiec+1.9
3717-20CO STUNCAttack errErin Debiec+2.5
3817-21UNCUNCAttack errElla Stowell+2.6
3918-21UNCCO STServe errNorth Carolina+1.2
4018-22CO STUNC×3KillBridget Maloneset Zoe Behrendt+1.8
4118-23UNCUNC×3KillBridget Maloneset Carly Markham+1.4
4218-24UNCUNC×3BlockedMaria Brunblk Chelsea Thorpe, Lauren Schutter+0.5
4319-24UNCCO STServe errNorth Carolina+0.1
4419-25CO STUNCKillBridget Maloneset Zoe Behrendt+0.2
Set 2
11-0CO STCO STKillHalle Jamesonset Karsyn Fetzer+2.2
22-0CO STCO STKillHalle Jamesonset Erin Debiec+2.2
32-1CO STUNCKillJackie Taylorset Zoe Behrendt+1.5
42-2UNCUNCKillBridget Malone+2.2
53-2UNCCO ST×3KillEve Wilsonset Erin Debiec+1.6
64-2CO STCO ST×3KillEve Wilsonset Erin Debiec+2.3
75-2CO STCO ST×3Attack errBridget Malone+2.3
85-3CO STUNCKillBridget Maloneset Zoe Behrendt+1.5
95-4UNCUNCAceNorth Carolina+2.3
106-4UNCCO STKillErin Debiec+1.7
117-4CO STCO STBlockedChelsea Thorpeblk Eve Wilson, Ella Stowell+2.4
127-5CO STUNCAttack errElla Stowell+1.6
138-5UNCCO STAttack errLaynie Smith+1.8
148-6CO STUNCKillLaynie Smithset Sienna Cozza+1.6
159-6UNCCO STKillElla Stowellset Erin Debiec+1.8
1610-6CO STCO STBlockedLaynie Smithblk Kekua Richards, Ella Stowell+2.4
1710-7CO STUNCBlockedElla Stowellblk Lauren Schutter, Laynie Smith+1.4
1811-7UNCCO STKillElla Stowellset Erin Debiec+1.7
1912-7CO STCO STAttack errLaynie Smith+2.2
2012-8CO STUNCKillSafi Hamptonset Sienna Cozza+1.2
2112-9UNCUNCKillSafi Hamptonset Erin Debiec+2.1
2213-9UNCCO STKillMaria Brunset Erin Debiec+1.8
2313-10CO STUNCKillSafi Hamptonset Bridget Malone+1.5
2414-10UNCCO STKillHalle Jamesonset Erin Debiec+1.9
2515-10CO STCO STAceColorado St.aced Safi Hampton+2.2
2615-11CO STUNCKillChelsea Thorpeset Zoe Behrendt+1.2
2716-11UNCCO STKillErin Debiecset Halle Jameson+1.6
2816-12CO STUNCKillChelsea Thorpeset Zoe Behrendt+1.2
2917-12UNCCO STKillEve Wilsonset Erin Debiec+1.6
3017-13CO STUNC×3Serve errColorado St.+1.1
3117-14UNCUNC×3Attack errElla Stowell+2.1
3217-15UNCUNC×3KillHalle Jamesonset Ella Stowell+2.7
3318-15UNCCO STServe errNorth Carolina+2.4
3418-16CO STUNCKillSafi Hamptonset Sienna Cozza+1.9
3519-16UNCCO STKillMaria Brunset Erin Debiec+2.5
3619-17CO STUNC×6Serve errColorado St.+1.9
3719-18UNCUNC×6Attack errKekua Richards+3.5
3819-19UNCUNC×6BlockedHalle Jamesonblk Chelsea Thorpe, Jackie Taylor+4.2
3919-20UNCUNC×6Attack errKekua Richards+4.5
4019-21UNCUNC×6KillChelsea Thorpeset Zoe Behrendt+4.2
4119-22UNCUNC×6AceNorth Carolinaaced Maria Brun+3.4
4220-22UNCCO STKillHalle Jamesonset Erin Debiec+1.6
4320-23CO STUNCKillSafi Hamptonset Zoe Behrendt+2.5
4421-23UNCCO STKillSofia Zabjekset Erin Debiec+1.4
4521-24CO STUNCKillJackie Taylorset Zoe Behrendt+2.5
4621-25UNCUNCAceNorth Carolina+1.3
Set 3
11-0UNCCO STAttack errJackie Taylor+0.9
22-0CO STCO STAceColorado St.aced Bridget Malone+1.3
32-1CO STUNCKillSafi Hamptonset Zoe Behrendt+0.9
42-2UNCUNCKillBridget Maloneset Zoe Behrendt+1.3
53-2UNCCO STKillHalle Jamesonset Erin Debiec+0.9
63-3CO STUNCKillBridget Maloneset Safi Hampton+0.9
74-3UNCCO ST×3Attack errBridget Malone+1.0
85-3CO STCO ST×3AceColorado St.+1.4
96-3CO STCO ST×3KillHalle Jamesonset Sophie Stephenson+1.4
106-4CO STUNCKillChelsea Thorpeset Zoe Behrendt+0.9
116-5UNCUNCAceNorth Carolinaaced Karsyn Fetzer+1.3
127-5UNCCO STServe errNorth Carolina+1.0
138-5CO STCO STBlockedBridget Maloneblk Eve Wilson+1.4
148-6CO STUNCAttack errBridget Malone+0.9
159-6UNCCO STKillEve Wilsonset Erin Debiec+1.1
169-7CO STUNCServe errColorado St.+0.9
1710-7UNCCO STKillHalle Jamesonset Erin Debiec+1.1
1811-7CO STCO STKillElla Stowellset Erin Debiec+1.4
1911-8CO STUNCKillSafi Hamptonset Sienna Cozza+0.8
2011-9UNCUNCKillChelsea Thorpeset Zoe Behrendt+1.4
2112-9UNCCO STAttack errChelsea Thorpe+1.1
2213-9CO STCO STKillKekua Richardsset Erin Debiec+1.5
2313-10CO STUNCAttack errHalle Jameson+0.9
2414-10UNCCO STKillKekua Richardsset Jackie Taylor+1.1
2514-11CO STUNC×3KillBridget Maloneset Zoe Behrendt+0.9
2614-12UNCUNC×3BlockedMaria Brunblk Lauren Schutter, Bridget Malone+1.5
2714-13UNCUNC×3BlockedHalle Jamesonblk Lauren Schutter, Chelsea Thorpe+1.7
2815-13UNCCO STKillHalle Jamesonset Erin Debiec+1.4
2915-14CO STUNCKillChelsea Thorpeset Zoe Behrendt+1.2
3016-14UNCCO STKillHalle Jamesonset Erin Debiec+1.4
3117-14CO STCO STKillElla Stowellset Erin Debiec+1.9
3217-15CO STUNCServe errColorado St.+1.1
3318-15UNCCO STKillElla Stowellset Eve Wilson+1.4
3419-15CO STCO STBlockedSafi Hamptonblk Kekua Richards+1.7
3519-16CO STUNCServe errColorado St.+0.8
3620-16UNCCO STKillKekua Richardsset Maria Brun+1.2
3720-17CO STUNCKillLaynie Smithset Sienna Cozza+0.8
3821-17UNCCO STKillMaria Brunset Erin Debiec+1.2
3922-17CO STCO STKillHalle Jamesonset Erin Debiec+1.1
4022-18CO STUNC×3KillJackie Taylorset Zoe Behrendt+0.4
4122-19UNCUNC×3KillChelsea Thorpeset Carly Markham+0.9
4222-20UNCUNC×3BlockedMaria Brunblk Bridget Malone, Jackie Taylor+1.5
4323-20UNCCO STKillKekua Richardsset Erin Debiec+1.8
4423-21CO STUNCKillBridget Maloneset Zoe Behrendt+0.9
4524-21UNCCO STAttack errHalle Jameson+1.8
4625-21CO STCO STAceColorado St.+1.0
Set 4
11-0CO STCO STKillKekua Richardsset Erin Debiec+3.0
21-1CO STUNCServe errColorado St.+2.1
32-1UNCCO STKillEve Wilsonset Erin Debiec+2.2
42-2CO STUNCKillBridget Maloneset Safi Hampton+2.1
53-2UNCCO ST×3Serve errNorth Carolina+2.3
64-2CO STCO ST×3KillElla Stowellset Erin Debiec+3.2
75-2CO STCO ST×3KillEve Wilsonset Erin Debiec+3.2
85-3CO STUNC×3KillBridget Maloneset Zoe Behrendt+2.1
95-4UNCUNC×3KillErin Debiec+3.2
105-5UNCUNC×3BlockedEve Wilsonblk Lauren Schutter, Bridget Malone+3.3
116-5UNCCO STKillElla Stowellset Erin Debiec+2.4
126-6CO STUNCKillLaynie Smithset Sienna Cozza+2.3
136-7UNCUNCAttack errKekua Richards+3.3
147-7UNCCO ST×4KillElla Stowellset Erin Debiec+2.4
158-7CO STCO ST×4Attack errLaynie Smith+3.6
169-7CO STCO ST×4KillKekua Richards+3.7
1710-7CO STCO ST×4KillKekua Richardsset Erin Debiec+3.6
1810-8CO STUNCKillSafi Hamptonset Sienna Cozza+2.3
1911-8UNCCO ST×3KillElla Stowellset Bridget Malone+2.7
2012-8CO STCO ST×3KillKekua Richardsset Maria Brun+3.5
2113-8CO STCO ST×3BlockedLaynie Smithblk Erin Debiec, Halle Jameson+3.0
2213-9CO STUNCKillSafi Hamptonset Sienna Cozza+1.7
2314-9UNCCO STKillKekua Richardsset Erin Debiec+2.2
2415-9CO STCO STKillEve Wilson+2.5
2515-10CO STUNCKillJackie Taylorset Zoe Behrendt+1.3
2616-10UNCCO STKillEve Wilsonset Erin Debiec+1.7
2717-10CO STCO STBlockedChelsea Thorpeblk Halle Jameson, Eve Wilson+1.8
2817-11CO STUNCKillBridget Maloneset Zoe Behrendt+0.8
2918-11UNCCO STServe errNorth Carolina+1.2
3018-12CO STUNC×3KillBridget Maloneset Zoe Behrendt+0.7
3118-13UNCUNC×3KillBridget Maloneset Safi Hampton+1.5
3218-14UNCUNC×3KillBridget Maloneset Sienna Cozza+2.1
3319-14UNCCO STKillElla Stowellset Erin Debiec+2.2
3419-15CO STUNCKillLaynie Smithset Sienna Cozza+1.4
3520-15UNCCO ST×3KillElla Stowellset Erin Debiec+2.1
3621-15CO STCO ST×3BlockedLaynie Smithblk Ella Stowell+1.9
3722-15CO STCO ST×3BlockedSafi Hamptonblk Maria Brun, Kekua Richards+1.0
3822-16CO STUNCKillSadie Swiftset Sienna Cozza+0.3
3923-16UNCCO STKillKekua Richardsset Erin Debiec+0.5
4023-17CO STUNCKillLaynie Smithset Sienna Cozza+0.1
4124-17UNCCO STKillHalle Jamesonset Erin Debiec+0.3
4224-18CO STUNCKillSafi Hamptonset Zoe Behrendt+0.1
4325-18UNCCO STAttack errBridget Malone+1.4
Set 5
11-0UNCCO STAttack errBridget Malone+6.4
21-1CO STUNCKillChelsea Thorpeset Zoe Behrendt+6.2
32-1UNCCO STKillKekua Richardsset Erin Debiec+6.6
43-1CO STCO STKillCarly Markhamset Zoe Behrendt+9.5
53-2CO STUNCServe errColorado St.+6.2
64-2UNCCO STKillEve Wilsonset Erin Debiec+7.1
75-2CO STCO STKillHalle Jamesonset Erin Debiec+9.5
85-3CO STUNCKillBridget Maloneset Sienna Cozza+5.7
96-3UNCCO STKillHalle Jamesonset Erin Debiec+7.0
106-4CO STUNCKillSafi Hamptonset Sienna Cozza+5.8
117-4UNCCO STKillEve Wilsonset Erin Debiec+7.3
127-5CO STUNCKillSafi Hamptonset Sienna Cozza+5.9
137-6UNCUNCAttack errKekua Richards+10.2
148-6UNCCO ST×3KillElla Stowellset Erin Debiec+8.6
159-6CO STCO ST×3KillElla Stowellset Erin Debiec+11.1
1610-6CO STCO ST×3Attack errJackie Taylor+9.1
1710-7CO STUNCKillSafi Hamptonset Zoe Behrendt+4.3
1811-7UNCCO STAttack errJackie Taylor+6.5
1911-8CO STUNCKillJackie Taylorset Zoe Behrendt+4.0
2012-8UNCCO STKillHalle Jamesonset Erin Debiec+6.4
2112-9CO STUNC×3KillBridget Maloneset Zoe Behrendt+3.5
2212-10UNCUNC×3Attack errSophie Stephenson+8.2
2312-11UNCUNC×3Attack errEve Wilson+12.7
2413-11UNCCO STKillEve Wilsonset Erin Debiec+13.3
2513-12CO STUNC×3KillBridget Maloneset Sienna Cozza+9.1
2613-13UNCUNC×3Attack errHalle Jameson+20.8
2713-14UNCUNC×3BlockedHalle Jamesonblk Lauren Schutter, Laynie Smith+26.3
2814-14UNCCO STKillHalle Jamesonset Eve Wilson+18.5
2914-15CO STUNCKillSafi Hamptonset Carly Markham+18.5
3014-16UNCUNCAttack errElla Stowell+24.8

Score shown after each rally, Colorado St. first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).