North Carolina def. Colorado St. 3–2
North Carolina beat visiting Colorado St. 3-2 (25-19, 25-21, 21-25, 18-25, 16-14) on Fri, Sep 4, 2026. North Carolina's Bridget Malone led with 23 kills, and Carly Markham added 13 digs.
Data through · final Sep 4
| Set | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | Sets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CO ST | 19 | 21 | 25 | 25 | 14 | 2 |
| UNC | 25 | 25 | 21 | 18 | 16 | 3 |
Win probability
Biggest swing: 26.3% to North Carolina — set 5, CO ST 13-14 UNC. Halle Jameson stuffed by Lauren Schutter & Laynie Smith. UNC win probability 49% → 75%.
Pre-match
Season fit · includes this match
Colorado St. wins
North Carolina wins
- CO ST break %
- 40.3% vs this opp
- UNC break %
- 42.8% vs this opp
Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.
Top plays
Largest win-probability swings
- 01Lauren Schutter&Laynie SmithBlock+26.3%
Halle Jameson stuffed by Lauren Schutter & Laynie Smith
Set 5 · CO ST 13-14 UNC · UNC 49% → 75%
- 02
- 03
- 04Halle JamesonKill+18.5%
Kill by Halle Jameson (set by Eve Wilson)
Set 5 · CO ST 14-14 UNC · CO ST 25% → 43%
- 05Safi HamptonKill+18.5%
Kill by Safi Hampton (set by Carly Markham)
Set 5 · CO ST 14-15 UNC · UNC 57% → 75%
- 06Eve WilsonKill+13.3%
Kill by Eve Wilson (set by Erin Debiec)
Set 5 · CO ST 13-11 UNC · CO ST 68% → 81%
- 07
- 08Ella StowellKill+11.1%
Kill by Ella Stowell (set by Erin Debiec)
Set 5 · CO ST 9-6 UNC · CO ST 68% → 79%
Box score
Official NCAA box
| Player | S | K | E | TA | Hit% | AST | SA | SE | DIG | RE | BS | BA | BLK | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 19 | 8 | 46 | .239 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1.5 | 20.5 | |
| 5 | 13 | 4 | 23 | .391 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 17 | |
| 5 | 14 | 7 | 38 | .184 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2.5 | 16.5 | |
| 5 | 12 | 4 | 19 | .421 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 14 | |
| 5 | 5 | 4 | 23 | .043 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 8.5 | |
| 5 | 2 | 1 | 7 | .143 | 50 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 2.5 | |
| 5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | .500 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| 5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | .500 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.000 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| Team totals | 68 | 28 | 161 | .248 | 62 | 4 | 8 | 57 | 4 | 4 | 14 | 11 | 104 |
| Player | S | K | E | TA | Hit% | AST | SA | SE | DIG | RE | BS | BA | BLK | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 23 | 6 | 51 | .333 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2.5 | 25.5 | |
| 5 | 18 | 3 | 43 | .349 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18 | |
| 5 | 8 | 5 | 23 | .130 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2.5 | 10.5 | |
| 5 | 6 | 3 | 16 | .188 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2.5 | 10.5 | |
| 5 | 2 | 0 | 5 | .400 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 6 | |
| 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 30 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 5 | 6 | 7 | 22 | -.045 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1.5 | 7.5 | |
| 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 19 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .000 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.000 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team totals | 64 | 24 | 162 | .247 | 58 | 4 | 7 | 54 | 4 | 2 | 22 | 13 | 105 |
Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.
Momentum
Point differential by rally
Set 1
19-25
Set 2
21-25
Set 3
25-21
Set 4
25-18
Set 5
14-16
Bars above the line = North Carolina leads, below = Colorado St. leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.
Rotations
Sideout and break % by rotation slot
Colorado St.
| Slot | Sideout % | Break % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 85%11/13 | 44%7/16 |
| 2 | 64%9/14 | 41%7/17 |
| 3 | 53%9/17 | 31%4/13 |
| 4 | 57%8/14 | 33%4/12 |
| 5 | 88%7/8 | 50%8/16 |
| 6 | 50%7/14 | 36%4/11 |
| All | 64%51/80 | 40%34/85 |
North Carolina
| Slot | Sideout % | Break % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 61%11/18 | 44%7/16 |
| 2 | 67%10/15 | 27%4/15 |
| 3 | 53%8/15 | 40%6/15 |
| 4 | 80%8/10 | 47%7/15 |
| 5 | 50%7/14 | 36%4/11 |
| 6 | 54%7/13 | 13%1/8 |
| All | 60%51/85 | 36%29/80 |
Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 5 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.
Rally log
209 rallies
| # | CO ST-UNC | Srv | Point | End | Player | Setter / blockers / passer | WP Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Set 1 | |||||||
| 1 | 1-0 | UNC | CO ST | Blocked | Chelsea Thorpe | blk Kekua Richards, Ella Stowell | +1.8 |
| 2–7 | 3-4 | CO ST 2 · UNC 4 | NCAA feed gap6 points not loggedWhy?The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected. | +4.8 | |||
| 8 | 4-4 | CO ST | CO ST×3 | Kill | Sophie Stephenson | set Karsyn Fetzer | +2.5 |
| 9 | 4-5 | CO ST | UNC | Kill | Lauren Schutter | set Zoe Behrendt | +1.8 |
| 10 | 5-5 | UNC | CO ST | Kill | Maria Brun | set Eve Wilson | +1.9 |
| 11 | 5-6 | CO ST | UNC | Attack err | Halle Jameson | +1.9 | |
| 12 | 5-7 | UNC | UNC | Attack err | Eve Wilson | +2.6 | |
| 13 | 6-7 | UNC | CO ST | Kill | Halle Jameson | set Erin Debiec | +1.8 |
| 14 | 6-8 | CO ST | UNC | Kill | Safi Hampton | set Sienna Cozza | +1.8 |
| 15 | 6-9 | UNC | UNC | Kill | Safi Hampton | +2.4 | |
| 16 | 7-9 | UNC | CO ST | Attack err | Maria Brun | +1.6 | |
| 17 | 7-10 | CO ST | UNC | Attack err | Ella Stowell | +1.7 | |
| 18 | 7-11 | UNC | UNC | Blocked | Ella Stowell | blk Chelsea Thorpe, Jackie Taylor | +2.2 |
| 19 | 8-11 | UNC | CO ST | Kill | Kekua Richards | set Maria Brun | +1.4 |
| 20 | 9-11 | CO ST | CO ST | Kill | Ella Stowell | set Karsyn Fetzer | +2.3 |
| 21 | 9-12 | CO ST | UNC | Blocked | Maria Brun | blk Jackie Taylor, Chelsea Thorpe | +1.8 |
| 22 | 10-12 | UNC | CO ST | Attack err | Chelsea Thorpe | +1.7 | |
| 23 | 10-13 | CO ST | UNC | Serve err | Colorado St. | +1.9 | |
| 24 | 10-14 | UNC | UNC | Kill | Bridget Malone | +2.3 | |
| 25 | 11-14 | UNC | CO ST | Kill | Karsyn Fetzer | set Maria Brun | +1.4 |
| 26 | 11-15 | CO ST | UNC | Kill | Bridget Malone | set Zoe Behrendt | +1.7 |
| 27 | 12-15 | UNC | CO ST×3 | Kill | Halle Jameson | set Erin Debiec | +1.4 |
| 28 | 13-15 | CO ST | CO ST×3 | Kill | Halle Jameson | set Erin Debiec | +2.5 |
| 29 | 14-15 | CO ST | CO ST×3 | Attack err | Safi Hampton | +3.1 | |
| 30 | 14-16 | CO ST | UNC | Blocked | Eve Wilson | blk Bridget Malone | +2.5 |
| 31 | 15-16 | UNC | CO ST | Kill | Maria Brun | set Erin Debiec | +2.3 |
| 32 | 15-17 | CO ST | UNC | Kill | Laynie Smith | set Sienna Cozza | +2.6 |
| 33 | 15-18 | UNC | UNC | Blocked | Halle Jameson | blk Jackie Taylor, Laynie Smith | +3.2 |
| 34 | 16-18 | UNC | CO ST | Blocked | Bridget Malone | blk Kekua Richards | +1.9 |
| 35 | 16-19 | CO ST | UNC | Kill | Safi Hampton | set Sienna Cozza | +2.4 |
| 36 | 17-19 | UNC | CO ST | Kill | Halle Jameson | set Erin Debiec | +1.9 |
| 37 | 17-20 | CO ST | UNC | Attack err | Erin Debiec | +2.5 | |
| 38 | 17-21 | UNC | UNC | Attack err | Ella Stowell | +2.6 | |
| 39 | 18-21 | UNC | CO ST | Serve err | North Carolina | +1.2 | |
| 40 | 18-22 | CO ST | UNC×3 | Kill | Bridget Malone | set Zoe Behrendt | +1.8 |
| 41 | 18-23 | UNC | UNC×3 | Kill | Bridget Malone | set Carly Markham | +1.4 |
| 42 | 18-24 | UNC | UNC×3 | Blocked | Maria Brun | blk Chelsea Thorpe, Lauren Schutter | +0.5 |
| 43 | 19-24 | UNC | CO ST | Serve err | North Carolina | +0.1 | |
| 44 | 19-25 | CO ST | UNC | Kill | Bridget Malone | set Zoe Behrendt | +0.2 |
| Set 2 | |||||||
| 1 | 1-0 | CO ST | CO ST | Kill | Halle Jameson | set Karsyn Fetzer | +2.2 |
| 2 | 2-0 | CO ST | CO ST | Kill | Halle Jameson | set Erin Debiec | +2.2 |
| 3 | 2-1 | CO ST | UNC | Kill | Jackie Taylor | set Zoe Behrendt | +1.5 |
| 4 | 2-2 | UNC | UNC | Kill | Bridget Malone | +2.2 | |
| 5 | 3-2 | UNC | CO ST×3 | Kill | Eve Wilson | set Erin Debiec | +1.6 |
| 6 | 4-2 | CO ST | CO ST×3 | Kill | Eve Wilson | set Erin Debiec | +2.3 |
| 7 | 5-2 | CO ST | CO ST×3 | Attack err | Bridget Malone | +2.3 | |
| 8 | 5-3 | CO ST | UNC | Kill | Bridget Malone | set Zoe Behrendt | +1.5 |
| 9 | 5-4 | UNC | UNC | Ace | North Carolina | +2.3 | |
| 10 | 6-4 | UNC | CO ST | Kill | Erin Debiec | +1.7 | |
| 11 | 7-4 | CO ST | CO ST | Blocked | Chelsea Thorpe | blk Eve Wilson, Ella Stowell | +2.4 |
| 12 | 7-5 | CO ST | UNC | Attack err | Ella Stowell | +1.6 | |
| 13 | 8-5 | UNC | CO ST | Attack err | Laynie Smith | +1.8 | |
| 14 | 8-6 | CO ST | UNC | Kill | Laynie Smith | set Sienna Cozza | +1.6 |
| 15 | 9-6 | UNC | CO ST | Kill | Ella Stowell | set Erin Debiec | +1.8 |
| 16 | 10-6 | CO ST | CO ST | Blocked | Laynie Smith | blk Kekua Richards, Ella Stowell | +2.4 |
| 17 | 10-7 | CO ST | UNC | Blocked | Ella Stowell | blk Lauren Schutter, Laynie Smith | +1.4 |
| 18 | 11-7 | UNC | CO ST | Kill | Ella Stowell | set Erin Debiec | +1.7 |
| 19 | 12-7 | CO ST | CO ST | Attack err | Laynie Smith | +2.2 | |
| 20 | 12-8 | CO ST | UNC | Kill | Safi Hampton | set Sienna Cozza | +1.2 |
| 21 | 12-9 | UNC | UNC | Kill | Safi Hampton | set Erin Debiec | +2.1 |
| 22 | 13-9 | UNC | CO ST | Kill | Maria Brun | set Erin Debiec | +1.8 |
| 23 | 13-10 | CO ST | UNC | Kill | Safi Hampton | set Bridget Malone | +1.5 |
| 24 | 14-10 | UNC | CO ST | Kill | Halle Jameson | set Erin Debiec | +1.9 |
| 25 | 15-10 | CO ST | CO ST | Ace | Colorado St. | aced Safi Hampton | +2.2 |
| 26 | 15-11 | CO ST | UNC | Kill | Chelsea Thorpe | set Zoe Behrendt | +1.2 |
| 27 | 16-11 | UNC | CO ST | Kill | Erin Debiec | set Halle Jameson | +1.6 |
| 28 | 16-12 | CO ST | UNC | Kill | Chelsea Thorpe | set Zoe Behrendt | +1.2 |
| 29 | 17-12 | UNC | CO ST | Kill | Eve Wilson | set Erin Debiec | +1.6 |
| 30 | 17-13 | CO ST | UNC×3 | Serve err | Colorado St. | +1.1 | |
| 31 | 17-14 | UNC | UNC×3 | Attack err | Ella Stowell | +2.1 | |
| 32 | 17-15 | UNC | UNC×3 | Kill | Halle Jameson | set Ella Stowell | +2.7 |
| 33 | 18-15 | UNC | CO ST | Serve err | North Carolina | +2.4 | |
| 34 | 18-16 | CO ST | UNC | Kill | Safi Hampton | set Sienna Cozza | +1.9 |
| 35 | 19-16 | UNC | CO ST | Kill | Maria Brun | set Erin Debiec | +2.5 |
| 36 | 19-17 | CO ST | UNC×6 | Serve err | Colorado St. | +1.9 | |
| 37 | 19-18 | UNC | UNC×6 | Attack err | Kekua Richards | +3.5 | |
| 38 | 19-19 | UNC | UNC×6 | Blocked | Halle Jameson | blk Chelsea Thorpe, Jackie Taylor | +4.2 |
| 39 | 19-20 | UNC | UNC×6 | Attack err | Kekua Richards | +4.5 | |
| 40 | 19-21 | UNC | UNC×6 | Kill | Chelsea Thorpe | set Zoe Behrendt | +4.2 |
| 41 | 19-22 | UNC | UNC×6 | Ace | North Carolina | aced Maria Brun | +3.4 |
| 42 | 20-22 | UNC | CO ST | Kill | Halle Jameson | set Erin Debiec | +1.6 |
| 43 | 20-23 | CO ST | UNC | Kill | Safi Hampton | set Zoe Behrendt | +2.5 |
| 44 | 21-23 | UNC | CO ST | Kill | Sofia Zabjek | set Erin Debiec | +1.4 |
| 45 | 21-24 | CO ST | UNC | Kill | Jackie Taylor | set Zoe Behrendt | +2.5 |
| 46 | 21-25 | UNC | UNC | Ace | North Carolina | +1.3 | |
| Set 3 | |||||||
| 1 | 1-0 | UNC | CO ST | Attack err | Jackie Taylor | +0.9 | |
| 2 | 2-0 | CO ST | CO ST | Ace | Colorado St. | aced Bridget Malone | +1.3 |
| 3 | 2-1 | CO ST | UNC | Kill | Safi Hampton | set Zoe Behrendt | +0.9 |
| 4 | 2-2 | UNC | UNC | Kill | Bridget Malone | set Zoe Behrendt | +1.3 |
| 5 | 3-2 | UNC | CO ST | Kill | Halle Jameson | set Erin Debiec | +0.9 |
| 6 | 3-3 | CO ST | UNC | Kill | Bridget Malone | set Safi Hampton | +0.9 |
| 7 | 4-3 | UNC | CO ST×3 | Attack err | Bridget Malone | +1.0 | |
| 8 | 5-3 | CO ST | CO ST×3 | Ace | Colorado St. | +1.4 | |
| 9 | 6-3 | CO ST | CO ST×3 | Kill | Halle Jameson | set Sophie Stephenson | +1.4 |
| 10 | 6-4 | CO ST | UNC | Kill | Chelsea Thorpe | set Zoe Behrendt | +0.9 |
| 11 | 6-5 | UNC | UNC | Ace | North Carolina | aced Karsyn Fetzer | +1.3 |
| 12 | 7-5 | UNC | CO ST | Serve err | North Carolina | +1.0 | |
| 13 | 8-5 | CO ST | CO ST | Blocked | Bridget Malone | blk Eve Wilson | +1.4 |
| 14 | 8-6 | CO ST | UNC | Attack err | Bridget Malone | +0.9 | |
| 15 | 9-6 | UNC | CO ST | Kill | Eve Wilson | set Erin Debiec | +1.1 |
| 16 | 9-7 | CO ST | UNC | Serve err | Colorado St. | +0.9 | |
| 17 | 10-7 | UNC | CO ST | Kill | Halle Jameson | set Erin Debiec | +1.1 |
| 18 | 11-7 | CO ST | CO ST | Kill | Ella Stowell | set Erin Debiec | +1.4 |
| 19 | 11-8 | CO ST | UNC | Kill | Safi Hampton | set Sienna Cozza | +0.8 |
| 20 | 11-9 | UNC | UNC | Kill | Chelsea Thorpe | set Zoe Behrendt | +1.4 |
| 21 | 12-9 | UNC | CO ST | Attack err | Chelsea Thorpe | +1.1 | |
| 22 | 13-9 | CO ST | CO ST | Kill | Kekua Richards | set Erin Debiec | +1.5 |
| 23 | 13-10 | CO ST | UNC | Attack err | Halle Jameson | +0.9 | |
| 24 | 14-10 | UNC | CO ST | Kill | Kekua Richards | set Jackie Taylor | +1.1 |
| 25 | 14-11 | CO ST | UNC×3 | Kill | Bridget Malone | set Zoe Behrendt | +0.9 |
| 26 | 14-12 | UNC | UNC×3 | Blocked | Maria Brun | blk Lauren Schutter, Bridget Malone | +1.5 |
| 27 | 14-13 | UNC | UNC×3 | Blocked | Halle Jameson | blk Lauren Schutter, Chelsea Thorpe | +1.7 |
| 28 | 15-13 | UNC | CO ST | Kill | Halle Jameson | set Erin Debiec | +1.4 |
| 29 | 15-14 | CO ST | UNC | Kill | Chelsea Thorpe | set Zoe Behrendt | +1.2 |
| 30 | 16-14 | UNC | CO ST | Kill | Halle Jameson | set Erin Debiec | +1.4 |
| 31 | 17-14 | CO ST | CO ST | Kill | Ella Stowell | set Erin Debiec | +1.9 |
| 32 | 17-15 | CO ST | UNC | Serve err | Colorado St. | +1.1 | |
| 33 | 18-15 | UNC | CO ST | Kill | Ella Stowell | set Eve Wilson | +1.4 |
| 34 | 19-15 | CO ST | CO ST | Blocked | Safi Hampton | blk Kekua Richards | +1.7 |
| 35 | 19-16 | CO ST | UNC | Serve err | Colorado St. | +0.8 | |
| 36 | 20-16 | UNC | CO ST | Kill | Kekua Richards | set Maria Brun | +1.2 |
| 37 | 20-17 | CO ST | UNC | Kill | Laynie Smith | set Sienna Cozza | +0.8 |
| 38 | 21-17 | UNC | CO ST | Kill | Maria Brun | set Erin Debiec | +1.2 |
| 39 | 22-17 | CO ST | CO ST | Kill | Halle Jameson | set Erin Debiec | +1.1 |
| 40 | 22-18 | CO ST | UNC×3 | Kill | Jackie Taylor | set Zoe Behrendt | +0.4 |
| 41 | 22-19 | UNC | UNC×3 | Kill | Chelsea Thorpe | set Carly Markham | +0.9 |
| 42 | 22-20 | UNC | UNC×3 | Blocked | Maria Brun | blk Bridget Malone, Jackie Taylor | +1.5 |
| 43 | 23-20 | UNC | CO ST | Kill | Kekua Richards | set Erin Debiec | +1.8 |
| 44 | 23-21 | CO ST | UNC | Kill | Bridget Malone | set Zoe Behrendt | +0.9 |
| 45 | 24-21 | UNC | CO ST | Attack err | Halle Jameson | +1.8 | |
| 46 | 25-21 | CO ST | CO ST | Ace | Colorado St. | +1.0 | |
| Set 4 | |||||||
| 1 | 1-0 | CO ST | CO ST | Kill | Kekua Richards | set Erin Debiec | +3.0 |
| 2 | 1-1 | CO ST | UNC | Serve err | Colorado St. | +2.1 | |
| 3 | 2-1 | UNC | CO ST | Kill | Eve Wilson | set Erin Debiec | +2.2 |
| 4 | 2-2 | CO ST | UNC | Kill | Bridget Malone | set Safi Hampton | +2.1 |
| 5 | 3-2 | UNC | CO ST×3 | Serve err | North Carolina | +2.3 | |
| 6 | 4-2 | CO ST | CO ST×3 | Kill | Ella Stowell | set Erin Debiec | +3.2 |
| 7 | 5-2 | CO ST | CO ST×3 | Kill | Eve Wilson | set Erin Debiec | +3.2 |
| 8 | 5-3 | CO ST | UNC×3 | Kill | Bridget Malone | set Zoe Behrendt | +2.1 |
| 9 | 5-4 | UNC | UNC×3 | Kill | Erin Debiec | +3.2 | |
| 10 | 5-5 | UNC | UNC×3 | Blocked | Eve Wilson | blk Lauren Schutter, Bridget Malone | +3.3 |
| 11 | 6-5 | UNC | CO ST | Kill | Ella Stowell | set Erin Debiec | +2.4 |
| 12 | 6-6 | CO ST | UNC | Kill | Laynie Smith | set Sienna Cozza | +2.3 |
| 13 | 6-7 | UNC | UNC | Attack err | Kekua Richards | +3.3 | |
| 14 | 7-7 | UNC | CO ST×4 | Kill | Ella Stowell | set Erin Debiec | +2.4 |
| 15 | 8-7 | CO ST | CO ST×4 | Attack err | Laynie Smith | +3.6 | |
| 16 | 9-7 | CO ST | CO ST×4 | Kill | Kekua Richards | +3.7 | |
| 17 | 10-7 | CO ST | CO ST×4 | Kill | Kekua Richards | set Erin Debiec | +3.6 |
| 18 | 10-8 | CO ST | UNC | Kill | Safi Hampton | set Sienna Cozza | +2.3 |
| 19 | 11-8 | UNC | CO ST×3 | Kill | Ella Stowell | set Bridget Malone | +2.7 |
| 20 | 12-8 | CO ST | CO ST×3 | Kill | Kekua Richards | set Maria Brun | +3.5 |
| 21 | 13-8 | CO ST | CO ST×3 | Blocked | Laynie Smith | blk Erin Debiec, Halle Jameson | +3.0 |
| 22 | 13-9 | CO ST | UNC | Kill | Safi Hampton | set Sienna Cozza | +1.7 |
| 23 | 14-9 | UNC | CO ST | Kill | Kekua Richards | set Erin Debiec | +2.2 |
| 24 | 15-9 | CO ST | CO ST | Kill | Eve Wilson | +2.5 | |
| 25 | 15-10 | CO ST | UNC | Kill | Jackie Taylor | set Zoe Behrendt | +1.3 |
| 26 | 16-10 | UNC | CO ST | Kill | Eve Wilson | set Erin Debiec | +1.7 |
| 27 | 17-10 | CO ST | CO ST | Blocked | Chelsea Thorpe | blk Halle Jameson, Eve Wilson | +1.8 |
| 28 | 17-11 | CO ST | UNC | Kill | Bridget Malone | set Zoe Behrendt | +0.8 |
| 29 | 18-11 | UNC | CO ST | Serve err | North Carolina | +1.2 | |
| 30 | 18-12 | CO ST | UNC×3 | Kill | Bridget Malone | set Zoe Behrendt | +0.7 |
| 31 | 18-13 | UNC | UNC×3 | Kill | Bridget Malone | set Safi Hampton | +1.5 |
| 32 | 18-14 | UNC | UNC×3 | Kill | Bridget Malone | set Sienna Cozza | +2.1 |
| 33 | 19-14 | UNC | CO ST | Kill | Ella Stowell | set Erin Debiec | +2.2 |
| 34 | 19-15 | CO ST | UNC | Kill | Laynie Smith | set Sienna Cozza | +1.4 |
| 35 | 20-15 | UNC | CO ST×3 | Kill | Ella Stowell | set Erin Debiec | +2.1 |
| 36 | 21-15 | CO ST | CO ST×3 | Blocked | Laynie Smith | blk Ella Stowell | +1.9 |
| 37 | 22-15 | CO ST | CO ST×3 | Blocked | Safi Hampton | blk Maria Brun, Kekua Richards | +1.0 |
| 38 | 22-16 | CO ST | UNC | Kill | Sadie Swift | set Sienna Cozza | +0.3 |
| 39 | 23-16 | UNC | CO ST | Kill | Kekua Richards | set Erin Debiec | +0.5 |
| 40 | 23-17 | CO ST | UNC | Kill | Laynie Smith | set Sienna Cozza | +0.1 |
| 41 | 24-17 | UNC | CO ST | Kill | Halle Jameson | set Erin Debiec | +0.3 |
| 42 | 24-18 | CO ST | UNC | Kill | Safi Hampton | set Zoe Behrendt | +0.1 |
| 43 | 25-18 | UNC | CO ST | Attack err | Bridget Malone | +1.4 | |
| Set 5 | |||||||
| 1 | 1-0 | UNC | CO ST | Attack err | Bridget Malone | +6.4 | |
| 2 | 1-1 | CO ST | UNC | Kill | Chelsea Thorpe | set Zoe Behrendt | +6.2 |
| 3 | 2-1 | UNC | CO ST | Kill | Kekua Richards | set Erin Debiec | +6.6 |
| 4 | 3-1 | CO ST | CO ST | Kill | Carly Markham | set Zoe Behrendt | +9.5 |
| 5 | 3-2 | CO ST | UNC | Serve err | Colorado St. | +6.2 | |
| 6 | 4-2 | UNC | CO ST | Kill | Eve Wilson | set Erin Debiec | +7.1 |
| 7 | 5-2 | CO ST | CO ST | Kill | Halle Jameson | set Erin Debiec | +9.5 |
| 8 | 5-3 | CO ST | UNC | Kill | Bridget Malone | set Sienna Cozza | +5.7 |
| 9 | 6-3 | UNC | CO ST | Kill | Halle Jameson | set Erin Debiec | +7.0 |
| 10 | 6-4 | CO ST | UNC | Kill | Safi Hampton | set Sienna Cozza | +5.8 |
| 11 | 7-4 | UNC | CO ST | Kill | Eve Wilson | set Erin Debiec | +7.3 |
| 12 | 7-5 | CO ST | UNC | Kill | Safi Hampton | set Sienna Cozza | +5.9 |
| 13 | 7-6 | UNC | UNC | Attack err | Kekua Richards | +10.2 | |
| 14 | 8-6 | UNC | CO ST×3 | Kill | Ella Stowell | set Erin Debiec | +8.6 |
| 15 | 9-6 | CO ST | CO ST×3 | Kill | Ella Stowell | set Erin Debiec | +11.1 |
| 16 | 10-6 | CO ST | CO ST×3 | Attack err | Jackie Taylor | +9.1 | |
| 17 | 10-7 | CO ST | UNC | Kill | Safi Hampton | set Zoe Behrendt | +4.3 |
| 18 | 11-7 | UNC | CO ST | Attack err | Jackie Taylor | +6.5 | |
| 19 | 11-8 | CO ST | UNC | Kill | Jackie Taylor | set Zoe Behrendt | +4.0 |
| 20 | 12-8 | UNC | CO ST | Kill | Halle Jameson | set Erin Debiec | +6.4 |
| 21 | 12-9 | CO ST | UNC×3 | Kill | Bridget Malone | set Zoe Behrendt | +3.5 |
| 22 | 12-10 | UNC | UNC×3 | Attack err | Sophie Stephenson | +8.2 | |
| 23 | 12-11 | UNC | UNC×3 | Attack err | Eve Wilson | +12.7 | |
| 24 | 13-11 | UNC | CO ST | Kill | Eve Wilson | set Erin Debiec | +13.3 |
| 25 | 13-12 | CO ST | UNC×3 | Kill | Bridget Malone | set Sienna Cozza | +9.1 |
| 26 | 13-13 | UNC | UNC×3 | Attack err | Halle Jameson | +20.8 | |
| 27 | 13-14 | UNC | UNC×3 | Blocked | Halle Jameson | blk Lauren Schutter, Laynie Smith | +26.3 |
| 28 | 14-14 | UNC | CO ST | Kill | Halle Jameson | set Eve Wilson | +18.5 |
| 29 | 14-15 | CO ST | UNC | Kill | Safi Hampton | set Carly Markham | +18.5 |
| 30 | 14-16 | UNC | UNC | Attack err | Ella Stowell | +24.8 | |
Score shown after each rally, Colorado St. first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).