FinalSun, Sep 13, 2026

AwayMETRO

0:3

HomeACC

Syracuse def. Canisius 3–0

(25-15, 25-23, 25-19)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
CANISI	15	23	19	0
SYR	25	25	25	3

RallyIQ model

Win probability

SYR above 50 · CANISI below

Biggest swing: 0.6% to Canisius — set 2, CANISI 20-16 SYR. Attack error by Kiernan Stamey. SYR win probability 97% → 97%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

CANISI 1.5%98.5% SYR

Canisius wins

3-0

0.1%

3-1

0.4%

3-2

1.0%

Syracuse wins

3-0

70.2%

3-1

23.4%

3-2

4.9%

CANISI break %: 35.0% vs this opp
SYR break %: 51.6% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Kiernan StameyAttack error+0.6%
Attack error by Kiernan Stamey
Set 2 · CANISI 20-16 SYR · CANISI 3% → 3%
02
Emily HelmersKill+0.6%
Kill by Emily Helmers (set by Kenslie Warmbrodt)
Set 2 · CANISI 19-16 SYR · CANISI 2% → 3%
03
Emma WilliamsAttack error+0.6%
Attack error by Emma Williams
Set 2 · CANISI 22-22 SYR · CANISI 1% → 1%
04
Bella RodriguezKill+0.5%
Kill by Bella Rodriguez (set by Kenslie Warmbrodt)
Set 2 · CANISI 20-20 SYR · SYR 98% → 99%
05
Abby NicholsonAttack error+0.5%
Attack error by Abby Nicholson
Set 2 · CANISI 18-16 SYR · CANISI 2% → 2%
06
Madison CowanAttack error+0.5%
Attack error by Madison Cowan
Set 2 · CANISI 20-19 SYR · SYR 97% → 98%
07
Emily HelmersBad set+0.5%
Bad set by Emily Helmers
Set 2 · CANISI 22-24 SYR · SYR 99% → 100%
08
Emma WilliamsKill+0.5%
Kill by Emma Williams (set by Charis Burge)
Set 2 · CANISI 22-23 SYR · SYR 99% → 99%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Canisiusaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
16Emma IsroffOH	3	5	4	21	.048	1	0	0	1	0	1	0.5	5.5
9Emily HelmersMB	3	5	0	8	.625	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	5
20McKenna CorcoranMB	3	3	0	11	.273	0	0	0	1	0	3	1.5	4.5
19Kenslie WarmbrodtS	3	0	0	1	.000	12	0	0	2	0	1	0.5	0.5
18Alli FarmerOH	2	3	6	13	-.231	0	3	0	3	1	0	0	6
7Julia LenikOH	2	0	2	10	-.200	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	1
12Hannah KosOH	3	2	1	9	.111	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	2.5
11Brenda ReynagaL/DS	3	0	0	1	.000	1	2	3	23	2	0	0	2
5Madison CowanOH	3	1	2	4	-.250	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	1
4Anna RichS	3	0	0	1	.000	8	0	1	1	0	0	0	0
17Azoria DavisOH	2	4	0	14	.286	0	1	0	3	1	0	0	5
6Cali TierneyOH	1	1	1	8	.000	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	1
Team totals		24	16	101	.079	22	7	8	40	8	6	3	57

Syracusehome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
8Kiernan StameyOH	3	10	7	27	.111	0	1	4	5	0	1	0.5	11.5
12Keila GabrielOPP	3	9	3	20	.300	0	2	1	1	0	0	0	11
23Abby NicholsonMB	3	3	3	13	.000	0	1	1	3	0	3	1.5	5.5
1Charis BurgeS	3	1	0	9	.111	29	2	2	9	0	2	1	4
10Bo NijenhuisMB	3	2	1	8	.125	1	0	0	4	0	0	0	2
6Marie LaurioOH	3	1	0	1	1.000	1	0	0	7	2	0	0	1
19Emma WilliamsOH	3	10	2	19	.421	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	10
21Bella RodriguezOH	3	4	1	9	.333	0	0	0	6	1	0	0	4
18Yuka UranoL/DS	3	0	0	1	.000	7	2	0	15	1	0	0	2
15Emma FaerberMB	1	0	1	1	-1.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		40	18	108	.204	38	8	8	51	7	6	3	75

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 5 CANISI · SYR 7

Set 1

15-25

Longest run 3 CANISISYR 4

Set 2

23-25

Longest run 5 CANISISYR 7

Set 3

19-25

Longest run 4 CANISISYR 4

Bars above the line = Syracuse leads, below = Canisius leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Canisius

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	54%7/13	54%7/13
2	39%7/18	36%4/11
3	42%5/12	46%6/13
4	44%4/9	29%2/7
5	44%4/9	50%4/8
6	33%4/12	43%3/7
All	42%31/73	44%26/59

Syracuse

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	47%7/15	38%3/8
2	78%7/9	59%10/17
3	58%7/12	50%7/14
4	50%4/8	64%7/11
5	67%4/6	60%6/10
6	44%4/9	69%9/13
All	56%33/59	58%42/73

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

132 rallies

Rally log

#	CANISI-SYR	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	CANISI	CANISI	Attack err	Kiernan Stamey		+0.3
2	2-0	CANISI	CANISI	Attack err	Keila Gabriel		+0.3
3	2-1	CANISI	SYR×4	Kill	Kiernan Stamey	set Yuka Urano	+0.2
4	2-2	SYR	SYR×4	Ace	SYR server	aced Team	+0.3
5	2-3	SYR	SYR×4	Kill	Keila Gabriel	set Yuka Urano	+0.2
6	2-4	SYR	SYR×4	Ace	SYR server	aced Alli Farmer	+0.2
7	3-4	SYR	CANISI	Kill	McKenna Corcoran	set Kenslie Warmbrodt	+0.2
8	3-5	CANISI	SYR	Kill	Keila Gabriel	set Yuka Urano	+0.1
9	4-5	SYR	CANISI	Attack err	Abby Nicholson	blk Emma Isroff, McKenna Corcoran	+0.2
10	5-5	CANISI	CANISI	Ace	CANISI server	aced Team	+0.3
11	5-6	CANISI	SYR×3	Kill	Marie Laurio	set Charis Burge	+0.2
12	5-7	SYR	SYR×3	Attack err	Julia Lenik		+0.2
13	5-8	SYR	SYR×3	Attack err	Madison Cowan		+0.2
14	6-8	SYR	CANISI	Serve err	SYR server		+0.1
15	6-9	CANISI	SYR×3	Serve err	CANISI server		+0.1
16	6-10	SYR	SYR×3	Kill	Bella Rodriguez	set Bo Nijenhuis	+0.1
17	6-11	SYR	SYR×3	Attack err	Emma Isroff		+0.1
18	7-11	SYR	CANISI	Kill	Emma Isroff	set Kenslie Warmbrodt	+0.1
19	8-11	CANISI	CANISI	Attack err	Emma Williams		+0.1
20	8-12	CANISI	SYR×4	Kill	Kiernan Stamey	set Charis Burge	+0.1
21	8-13	SYR	SYR×4	Ace	SYR server	aced Team	+0.1
22	8-14	SYR	SYR×4	Kill	Bo Nijenhuis	set Charis Burge	+0.1
23	8-15	SYR	SYR×4	Ace	SYR server	aced Brenda Reynaga	+0.0
24	9-15	SYR	CANISI×3	Serve err	SYR server		+0.0
25	10-15	CANISI	CANISI×3	Kill	Emily Helmers		+0.1
26	11-15	CANISI	CANISI×3	Ace	CANISI server	aced Yuka Urano	+0.1
27	11-16	CANISI	SYR×3	Serve err	CANISI server		+0.1
28	11-17	SYR	SYR×3	Attack err	Alli Farmer		+0.1
29	11-18	SYR	SYR×3	Bad set	Anna Rich		+0.0
30	12-18	SYR	CANISI	Kill	Alli Farmer	set Anna Rich	+0.0
31	13-18	CANISI	CANISI	Attack err	Bo Nijenhuis		+0.1
32	13-19	CANISI	SYR	Kill	Kiernan Stamey	set Charis Burge	+0.1
33	14-19	SYR	CANISI	Kill	Hannah Kos	set Anna Rich	+0.0
34	14-20	CANISI	SYR×3	Kill	Kiernan Stamey	set Marie Laurio	+0.0
35	14-21	SYR	SYR×3	Attack err	Alli Farmer	blk Charis Burge, Abby Nicholson	+0.0
36	14-22	SYR	SYR×3	Kill	Kiernan Stamey	set Charis Burge	+0.0
37	15-22	SYR	CANISI	Attack err	Abby Nicholson		+0.0
38	15-23	CANISI	SYR×3	Attack err	Julia Lenik	blk Charis Burge, Abby Nicholson	+0.0
39	15-24	SYR	SYR×3	Kill	Abby Nicholson	set Charis Burge	+0.0
40	15-25	SYR	SYR×3	Kill	Abby Nicholson		+0.0
Set 2
1	1-0	SYR	CANISI	Kill	Emma Isroff	set Kenslie Warmbrodt	+0.1
2	1-1	CANISI	SYR	Attack err	Alli Farmer		+0.1
3	2-1	SYR	CANISI	Kill	Alli Farmer	set Emma Isroff	+0.1
4	3-1	CANISI	CANISI	Ace	CANISI server	aced Marie Laurio	+0.2
5	3-2	CANISI	SYR	Kill	Abby Nicholson	set Charis Burge	+0.1
6	4-2	SYR	CANISI	Kill	Emma Isroff	set Kenslie Warmbrodt	+0.2
7	5-2	CANISI	CANISI	Ace	CANISI server	aced Bella Rodriguez	+0.3
8	5-3	CANISI	SYR	Serve err	CANISI server		+0.2
9	5-4	SYR	SYR	Attack err	Emma Isroff		+0.2
10	6-4	SYR	CANISI×4	Serve err	SYR server		+0.2
11	7-4	CANISI	CANISI×4	Attack err	Bella Rodriguez		+0.3
12	8-4	CANISI	CANISI×4	Ace	CANISI server	aced Emma Williams	+0.3
13	9-4	CANISI	CANISI×4	Kill	Alli Farmer	set Anna Rich	+0.4
14	9-5	CANISI	SYR×3	Kill	Emma Williams	set Charis Burge	+0.2
15	9-6	SYR	SYR×3	Attack err	Alli Farmer		+0.3
16	9-7	SYR	SYR×3	Attack err	Alli Farmer		+0.3
17	10-7	SYR	CANISI	Attack err	Kiernan Stamey	blk Hannah Kos, McKenna Corcoran	+0.3
18	11-7	CANISI	CANISI	Ace	CANISI server	aced Team	+0.4
19	11-8	CANISI	SYR×7	Kill	Keila Gabriel	set Charis Burge	+0.2
20	11-9	SYR	SYR×7	Attack err	Alli Farmer		+0.3
21	11-10	SYR	SYR×7	Kill	Keila Gabriel	set Charis Burge	+0.3
22	11-11	SYR	SYR×7	Ace	SYR server	aced Team	+0.3
23	11-12	SYR	SYR×7	Kill	Emma Williams	set Charis Burge	+0.2
24	11-13	SYR	SYR×7	Kill	Keila Gabriel	set Charis Burge	+0.2
25	11-14	SYR	SYR×7	Kill	Kiernan Stamey	set Charis Burge	+0.1
26	12-14	SYR	CANISI×4	Kill	McKenna Corcoran	set Kenslie Warmbrodt	+0.1
27	13-14	CANISI	CANISI×4	Kill	Emma Isroff	set Kenslie Warmbrodt	+0.2
28	14-14	CANISI	CANISI×4	Kill	Azoria Davis	set Kenslie Warmbrodt	+0.3
29	15-14	CANISI	CANISI×4	Ace	CANISI server	aced Marie Laurio	+0.4
30	15-15	CANISI	SYR	Kill	Kiernan Stamey	set Charis Burge	+0.2
31	15-16	SYR	SYR	Ace	SYR server	aced Team	+0.3
32	16-16	SYR	CANISI×5	Kill	Azoria Davis	set Kenslie Warmbrodt	+0.3
33	17-16	CANISI	CANISI×5	Kill	Emma Isroff	set Kenslie Warmbrodt	+0.4
34	18-16	CANISI	CANISI×5	Attack err	Abby Nicholson		+0.5
35	19-16	CANISI	CANISI×5	Kill	Emily Helmers	set Kenslie Warmbrodt	+0.6
36	20-16	CANISI	CANISI×5	Attack err	Kiernan Stamey		+0.6
37	20-17	CANISI	SYR×6	Kill	Emma Williams	set Charis Burge	+0.3
38	20-18	SYR	SYR×6	Kill	Emma Williams	set Charis Burge	+0.5
39	20-19	SYR	SYR×6	Attack err	Madison Cowan		+0.5
40	20-20	SYR	SYR×6	Kill	Bella Rodriguez	set Kenslie Warmbrodt	+0.5
41	20-21	SYR	SYR×6	Kill	Bo Nijenhuis	set Charis Burge	+0.5
42	20-22	SYR	SYR×6	Kill	Bella Rodriguez	set Charis Burge	+0.4
43	21-22	SYR	CANISI	Attack err	Kiernan Stamey		+0.3
44	22-22	CANISI	CANISI	Attack err	Emma Williams		+0.6
45	22-23	CANISI	SYR	Kill	Emma Williams	set Charis Burge	+0.5
46	22-24	SYR	SYR	Bad set	Emily Helmers		+0.5
47	23-24	SYR	CANISI	Serve err	SYR server		+0.2
48	23-25	CANISI	SYR	Kill	Emma Williams	set Charis Burge	+0.5
Set 3
1	0-1	CANISI	SYR	Kill	Keila Gabriel	set Charis Burge	+0.0
2	0-2	SYR	SYR	Kill	Keila Gabriel	set Yuka Urano	+0.0
3	1-2	SYR	CANISI	Kill	McKenna Corcoran	set Kenslie Warmbrodt	+0.0
4	1-3	CANISI	SYR	Kill	Kiernan Stamey	set Charis Burge	+0.0
5	2-3	SYR	CANISI	Attack err	Keila Gabriel	blk Kenslie Warmbrodt, McKenna Corcoran	+0.0
6	2-4	CANISI	SYR×3	Serve err	CANISI server		+0.0
7	2-5	SYR	SYR×3	Attack err	Emma Isroff		+0.0
8	2-6	SYR	SYR×3	Attack err	Emma Isroff		+0.0
9	3-6	SYR	CANISI	Serve err	SYR server		+0.0
10	3-7	CANISI	SYR	Kill	Bella Rodriguez	set Charis Burge	+0.0
11	3-8	SYR	SYR	Kill	Emma Williams	set Charis Burge	+0.0
12	4-8	SYR	CANISI	Serve err	SYR server		+0.0
13	4-9	CANISI	SYR	Kill	Emma Williams	set Charis Burge	+0.0
14	5-9	SYR	CANISI	Kill	Azoria Davis	set Anna Rich	+0.0
15	5-10	CANISI	SYR	Kill	Emma Williams	set Yuka Urano	+0.0
16	6-10	SYR	CANISI	Kill	Emily Helmers	set Anna Rich	+0.0
17	7-10	CANISI	CANISI	Attack err	Keila Gabriel		+0.0
18	7-11	CANISI	SYR	Kill	Keila Gabriel	set Charis Burge	+0.0
19	7-12	SYR	SYR	Attack err	Hannah Kos	blk Kiernan Stamey, Abby Nicholson	+0.0
20	8-12	SYR	CANISI	Kill	Cali Tierney	set Anna Rich	+0.0
21	8-13	CANISI	SYR	Kill	Kiernan Stamey	set Yuka Urano	+0.0
22	8-14	SYR	SYR	Attack err	Cali Tierney		+0.0
23	9-14	SYR	CANISI	Serve err	SYR server		+0.0
24	9-15	CANISI	SYR	Serve err	CANISI server		+0.0
25	10-15	SYR	CANISI	Serve err	SYR server		+0.0
26	11-15	CANISI	CANISI	Kill	Madison Cowan	set Charis Burge	+0.0
27	11-16	CANISI	SYR	Serve err	CANISI server		+0.0
28	11-17	SYR	SYR	Ace	SYR server	aced Azoria Davis	+0.0
29	12-17	SYR	CANISI	Kill	Emily Helmers	set Kenslie Warmbrodt	+0.0
30	12-18	CANISI	SYR	Serve err	CANISI server		+0.0
31	13-18	SYR	CANISI	Kill	Azoria Davis	set Brenda Reynaga	+0.0
32	13-19	CANISI	SYR	Kill	Emma Williams	set Charis Burge	+0.0
33	14-19	SYR	CANISI	Kill	Emily Helmers	set Anna Rich	+0.0
34	14-20	CANISI	SYR	Kill	Keila Gabriel	set Charis Burge	+0.0
35	15-20	SYR	CANISI	Kill	Hannah Kos	set Anna Rich	+0.0
36	15-21	CANISI	SYR×4	Kill	Kiernan Stamey	set Charis Burge	+0.0
37	15-22	SYR	SYR×4	Kill	Charis Burge	set Yuka Urano	+0.0
38	15-23	SYR	SYR×4	Bad set	Kenslie Warmbrodt		+0.0
39	15-24	SYR	SYR×4	Ace	SYR server	aced Brenda Reynaga	+0.0
40	16-24	SYR	CANISI×4	Attack err	Kiernan Stamey		+0.0
41	17-24	CANISI	CANISI×4	Attack err	Emma Faerber		+0.0
42	18-24	CANISI	CANISI×4	Attack err	Kiernan Stamey		+0.0
43	19-24	CANISI	CANISI×4	Attack err	Kiernan Stamey		+0.0
44	19-25	CANISI	SYR	Serve err	CANISI server		+0.0

Score shown after each rally, Canisius first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.