FinalFri, Sep 18, 2026

AwayNEC

0:3

HomeMETRO

Canisius def. Le Moyne 3–0

(25-18, 25-23, 25-20)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
LEMOYN	18	23	20	0
CANISI	25	25	25	3

RallyIQ model

Win probability

CANISI above 50 · LEMOYN below

Biggest swing: 2.1% to Canisius — set 2, LEMOYN 23-25 CANISI. Kill by Alli Farmer (set by Anna Rich). CANISI win probability 96% → 98%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

LEMOYN 9.8%90.2% CANISI

Le Moyne wins

3-0

1.3%

3-1

3.0%

3-2

5.5%

Canisius wins

3-0

44.8%

3-1

31.6%

3-2

13.8%

LEMOYN break %: 40.1% vs this opp
CANISI break %: 50.1% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Alli FarmerKill+2.1%
Kill by Alli Farmer (set by Anna Rich)
Set 2 · LEMOYN 23-25 CANISI · CANISI 96% → 98%
02
Emily HelmersKill+1.7%
Kill by Emily Helmers (set by Anna Rich)
Set 2 · LEMOYN 22-24 CANISI · CANISI 96% → 97%
03
Hannah KosKill+1.5%
Kill by Hannah Kos (set by Anna Rich)
Set 2 · LEMOYN 21-23 CANISI · CANISI 95% → 97%
04
Hannah KosAttack error+1.4%
Attack error by Hannah Kos
Set 2 · LEMOYN 21-22 CANISI · LEMOYN 3% → 5%
05
Payton HoranKill+1.2%
Kill by Payton Horan (set by Katie Barbour)
Set 2 · LEMOYN 22-23 CANISI · LEMOYN 3% → 4%
06
Payton HoranKill+1.1%
Kill by Payton Horan (set by Katie Barbour)
Set 2 · LEMOYN 23-24 CANISI · LEMOYN 3% → 4%
07
Emma IsroffKill+0.9%
Kill by Emma Isroff (set by Kenslie Warmbrodt)
Set 1 · LEMOYN 0-1 CANISI · CANISI 90% → 91%
08
Emma IsroffKill+0.9%
Kill by Emma Isroff (set by Kenslie Warmbrodt)
Set 2 · LEMOYN 19-22 CANISI · CANISI 97% → 97%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Le Moyneaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
2Branwyn LuptonOH	3	6	2	21	.190	0	0	0	2	0	3	1.5	7.5
11Eiley SchneiderMB	3	2	0	7	.286	0	0	0	0	0	4	2	4
22Alise EvansMB	3	2	1	6	.167	0	0	3	2	0	1	0.5	2.5
8Nina SalasOH	3	2	1	8	.125	0	0	0	4	2	0	0	2
7Avery Stromberg	1	1	3	8	-.250	1	0	0	5	1	0	0	1
3Skylar JehlenS	1	0	0	0	–	5	0	0	2	0	0	0	0
9Jazmin RodriguezOH	3	7	4	22	.136	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	7
4Katie Barbour	3	3	0	5	.600	13	1	0	9	0	0	0	4
10Haley BuescherL/DS	3	1	0	3	.333	2	0	1	20	0	0	0	1
1Aubrey Kimball	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	0
19Payton HoranOH	2	4	0	18	.222	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	4
13Cami ZajacL/DS	2	0	0	4	.000	2	0	0	3	0	0	0	0
18Gabriella Schemidt	1	0	0	5	.000	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	1
17Grace Turrell	1	0	1	2	-.500	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		28	12	109	.147	23	1	6	50	8	10	5	61

Canisiushome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
7Julia LenikOH	3	8	3	19	.263	0	2	1	15	0	0	0	10
16Emma IsroffOH	3	9	1	18	.444	0	0	0	3	0	2	1	10
18Alli FarmerOH	3	9	4	22	.227	0	0	2	7	1	0	0	9
9Emily HelmersMB	3	8	2	15	.400	1	0	3	4	0	0	0	8
20McKenna CorcoranMB	3	6	3	16	.188	0	0	0	1	0	3	1.5	7.5
19Kenslie WarmbrodtS	3	0	0	0	–	23	2	3	0	0	0	0	2
12Hannah KosOH	3	8	6	28	.071	0	0	0	5	0	1	0.5	8.5
11Brenda ReynagaL/DS	3	0	0	2	.000	2	2	1	18	0	0	0	2
4Anna RichS	3	0	0	0	–	15	2	1	4	0	0	0	2
5Madison CowanOH	3	0	1	2	-.500	0	0	0	6	0	0	0	0
Team totals		48	20	122	.230	41	8	11	63	1	6	3	75

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 6 LEMOYN · CANISI 4

Set 1

18-25

Longest run 3 LEMOYNCANISI 4

Set 2

23-25

Longest run 6 LEMOYNCANISI 4

Set 3

20-25

Longest run 5 LEMOYNCANISI 4

Bars above the line = Canisius leads, below = Le Moyne leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Le Moyne

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	35%6/17	67%14/21
2	55%6/11	0%0/6
3	46%6/13	33%3/9
4	60%6/10	33%3/9
5	38%6/16	33%3/9
6	86%6/7	25%2/8
All	49%36/74	40%25/62

Canisius

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	50%7/14	50%6/12
2	86%6/7	54%7/13
3	60%6/10	57%8/14
4	67%6/9	50%6/12
5	67%6/9	57%8/14
6	46%6/13	33%3/9
All	60%37/62	51%38/74

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

136 rallies

Rally log

#	LEMOYN-CANISI	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	0-1	CANISI	CANISI	Kill	Emma Isroff	set Kenslie Warmbrodt	+0.9
2	1-1	CANISI	LEMOYN	Kill	Avery Stromberg	set Skylar Jehlen	+0.8
3	1-2	LEMOYN	CANISI	Kill	Emma Isroff	set Kenslie Warmbrodt	+0.8
4	1-3	CANISI	CANISI	Kill	McKenna Corcoran	set Skylar Jehlen	+0.8
5	2-3	CANISI	LEMOYN	Kill	Jazmin Rodriguez	set Skylar Jehlen	+0.7
6	2-4	LEMOYN	CANISI	Kill	Julia Lenik	set Kenslie Warmbrodt	+0.7
7	2-5	CANISI	CANISI	Ace	CANISI server	aced Jazmin Rodriguez	+0.8
8	3-5	CANISI	LEMOYN	Kill	Jazmin Rodriguez	set Skylar Jehlen	+0.6
9	3-6	LEMOYN	CANISI	Kill	Emily Helmers	set Kenslie Warmbrodt	+0.6
10	4-6	CANISI	LEMOYN	Attack err	Hannah Kos		+0.7
11	4-7	LEMOYN	CANISI	Kill	Julia Lenik	set Anna Rich	+0.7
12	4-8	CANISI	CANISI	Kill	Emily Helmers	set Anna Rich	+0.7
13	5-8	CANISI	LEMOYN	Kill	Nina Salas	set Katie Barbour	+0.5
14	5-9	LEMOYN	CANISI	Kill	Alli Farmer	set Anna Rich	+0.6
15	5-10	CANISI	CANISI	Attack err	Avery Stromberg		+0.6
16	6-10	CANISI	LEMOYN	Attack err	Alli Farmer		+0.4
17	6-11	LEMOYN	CANISI	Kill	McKenna Corcoran	set Anna Rich	+0.5
18	7-11	CANISI	LEMOYN	Kill	Branwyn Lupton	set Avery Stromberg	+0.4
19	7-12	LEMOYN	CANISI	Attack err	Jazmin Rodriguez		+0.5
20	8-12	CANISI	LEMOYN	Kill	Branwyn Lupton	set Skylar Jehlen	+0.4
21	8-13	LEMOYN	CANISI×3	Serve err	LEMOYN server		+0.5
22	8-14	CANISI	CANISI×3	Kill	Emma Isroff		+0.4
23	8-15	CANISI	CANISI×3	Attack err	Branwyn Lupton		+0.3
24	9-15	CANISI	LEMOYN	Kill	Jazmin Rodriguez	set Skylar Jehlen	+0.2
25	10-15	LEMOYN	LEMOYN	Attack err	Emily Helmers		+0.4
26	10-16	LEMOYN	CANISI×3	Kill	Julia Lenik	set Kenslie Warmbrodt	+0.4
27	10-17	CANISI	CANISI×3	Ace	CANISI server	aced Jazmin Rodriguez	+0.3
28	10-18	CANISI	CANISI×3	Ace	CANISI server	aced Team	+0.2
29	11-18	CANISI	LEMOYN	Attack err	Madison Cowan		+0.1
30	12-18	LEMOYN	LEMOYN	Attack err	Hannah Kos	blk Gabriella Schemidt, Alise Evans	+0.2
31	12-19	LEMOYN	CANISI	Attack err	Avery Stromberg		+0.2
32	12-20	CANISI	CANISI	Ace	CANISI server	aced Avery Stromberg	+0.1
33	13-20	CANISI	LEMOYN×3	Kill	Alise Evans	set Katie Barbour	+0.1
34	14-20	LEMOYN	LEMOYN×3	Attack err	Emily Helmers		+0.1
35	15-20	LEMOYN	LEMOYN×3	Attack err	Alli Farmer	blk Eiley Schneider, Gabriella Schemidt	+0.3
36	15-21	LEMOYN	CANISI	Serve err	LEMOYN server		+0.3
37	16-21	CANISI	LEMOYN×3	Serve err	CANISI server		+0.2
38	17-21	LEMOYN	LEMOYN×3	Kill	Eiley Schneider		+0.4
39	18-21	LEMOYN	LEMOYN×3	Attack err	McKenna Corcoran		+0.7
40	18-22	LEMOYN	CANISI×4	Attack err	Nina Salas	blk McKenna Corcoran, Hannah Kos	+0.8
41	18-23	CANISI	CANISI×4	Ace	CANISI server	aced Nina Salas	+0.5
42	18-24	CANISI	CANISI×4	Kill	Alli Farmer	set Kenslie Warmbrodt	+0.2
43	18-25	CANISI	CANISI×4	Attack err	Avery Stromberg	blk McKenna Corcoran, Emma Isroff	+0.0
Set 2
1	1-0	LEMOYN	LEMOYN	Bad set	Kenslie Warmbrodt		+0.8
2	2-0	LEMOYN	LEMOYN	Attack err	Alli Farmer	blk Branwyn Lupton, Eiley Schneider	+0.9
3	2-1	LEMOYN	CANISI×4	Kill	Alli Farmer	set Kenslie Warmbrodt	+0.6
4	2-2	CANISI	CANISI×4	Kill	Alli Farmer	set Kenslie Warmbrodt	+0.7
5	2-3	CANISI	CANISI×4	Attack err	Branwyn Lupton		+0.7
6	2-4	CANISI	CANISI×4	Kill	Alli Farmer	set Katie Barbour	+0.6
7	3-4	CANISI	LEMOYN	Kill	Eiley Schneider	set Brenda Reynaga	+0.5
8	3-5	LEMOYN	CANISI×4	Serve err	LEMOYN server		+0.5
9	3-6	CANISI	CANISI×4	Attack err	Jazmin Rodriguez	blk Emma Isroff, McKenna Corcoran	+0.5
10	3-7	CANISI	CANISI×4	Kill	McKenna Corcoran	set Kenslie Warmbrodt	+0.5
11	3-8	CANISI	CANISI×4	Kill	Emma Isroff	set Kenslie Warmbrodt	+0.4
12	4-8	CANISI	LEMOYN	Serve err	CANISI server		+0.3
13	4-9	LEMOYN	CANISI×3	Kill	McKenna Corcoran	set Kenslie Warmbrodt	+0.3
14	4-10	CANISI	CANISI×3	Attack err	Alise Evans		+0.3
15	4-11	CANISI	CANISI×3	Ace	CANISI server	aced Aubrey Kimball	+0.2
16	5-11	CANISI	LEMOYN	Attack err	Julia Lenik		+0.2
17	5-12	LEMOYN	CANISI	Kill	Julia Lenik	set Kenslie Warmbrodt	+0.2
18	6-12	CANISI	LEMOYN	Kill	Jazmin Rodriguez	set Katie Barbour	+0.1
19	6-13	LEMOYN	CANISI×3	Kill	Emily Helmers	set Anna Rich	+0.2
20	6-14	CANISI	CANISI×3	Kill	Hannah Kos	set Anna Rich	+0.1
21	6-15	CANISI	CANISI×3	Kill	Emily Helmers		+0.1
22	7-15	CANISI	LEMOYN	Attack err	Alli Farmer		+0.1
23	7-16	LEMOYN	CANISI	Serve err	LEMOYN server		+0.1
24	8-16	CANISI	LEMOYN×6	Serve err	CANISI server		+0.0
25	9-16	LEMOYN	LEMOYN×6	Kill	Payton Horan	set Katie Barbour	+0.1
26	10-16	LEMOYN	LEMOYN×6	Kill	Branwyn Lupton	set Haley Buescher	+0.2
27	11-16	LEMOYN	LEMOYN×6	Attack err	Julia Lenik	blk Branwyn Lupton, Eiley Schneider	+0.2
28	12-16	LEMOYN	LEMOYN×6	Attack err	McKenna Corcoran		+0.4
29	13-16	LEMOYN	LEMOYN×6	Attack err	Hannah Kos		+0.5
30	13-17	LEMOYN	CANISI×3	Kill	Hannah Kos	set Anna Rich	+0.5
31	13-18	CANISI	CANISI×3	Kill	McKenna Corcoran		+0.4
32	13-19	CANISI	CANISI×3	Kill	Alli Farmer	set Kenslie Warmbrodt	+0.3
33	14-19	CANISI	LEMOYN	Serve err	CANISI server		+0.2
34	14-20	LEMOYN	CANISI	Kill	Emma Isroff	set Kenslie Warmbrodt	+0.2
35	15-20	CANISI	LEMOYN×3	Serve err	CANISI server		+0.1
36	16-20	LEMOYN	LEMOYN×3	Attack err	Emma Isroff		+0.3
37	17-20	LEMOYN	LEMOYN×3	Kill	Branwyn Lupton	set Katie Barbour	+0.5
38	17-21	LEMOYN	CANISI	Kill	Emma Isroff	set Kenslie Warmbrodt	+0.5
39	18-21	CANISI	LEMOYN	Kill	Alise Evans	set Katie Barbour	+0.4
40	19-21	LEMOYN	LEMOYN	Kill	Katie Barbour		+0.8
41	19-22	LEMOYN	CANISI	Kill	Emma Isroff	set Kenslie Warmbrodt	+0.9
42	20-22	CANISI	LEMOYN	Kill	Katie Barbour	set Haley Buescher	+0.7
43	21-22	LEMOYN	LEMOYN	Attack err	Hannah Kos		+1.4
44	21-23	LEMOYN	CANISI	Kill	Hannah Kos	set Anna Rich	+1.5
45	22-23	CANISI	LEMOYN	Kill	Payton Horan	set Katie Barbour	+1.2
46	22-24	LEMOYN	CANISI	Kill	Emily Helmers	set Anna Rich	+1.7
47	23-24	CANISI	LEMOYN	Kill	Payton Horan	set Katie Barbour	+1.1
48	23-25	LEMOYN	CANISI	Kill	Alli Farmer	set Anna Rich	+2.1
Set 3
1	0-1	CANISI	CANISI	Kill	Emma Isroff	set Kenslie Warmbrodt	+0.3
2	1-1	CANISI	LEMOYN	Serve err	CANISI server		+0.3
3	1-2	LEMOYN	CANISI	Kill	McKenna Corcoran	set Kenslie Warmbrodt	+0.2
4	2-2	CANISI	LEMOYN	Kill	Jazmin Rodriguez	set Katie Barbour	+0.3
5	3-2	LEMOYN	LEMOYN	Attack err	Julia Lenik		+0.4
6	3-3	LEMOYN	CANISI	Kill	Julia Lenik	set Kenslie Warmbrodt	+0.3
7	3-4	CANISI	CANISI	Serve err	CANISI server		+0.3
8	4-4	CANISI	LEMOYN	Kill	Branwyn Lupton	set Katie Barbour	+0.3
9	5-4	LEMOYN	LEMOYN	Kill	Haley Buescher	set Cami Zajac	+0.4
10	5-5	LEMOYN	CANISI	Kill	Julia Lenik	set Kenslie Warmbrodt	+0.3
11	5-6	CANISI	CANISI	Attack err	Jazmin Rodriguez		+0.3
12	6-6	CANISI	LEMOYN	Serve err	CANISI server		+0.3
13	6-7	LEMOYN	CANISI×4	Kill	Emily Helmers	set Brenda Reynaga	+0.3
14	6-8	CANISI	CANISI×4	Kill	Hannah Kos	set Anna Rich	+0.3
15	6-9	CANISI	CANISI×4	Ace	CANISI server	aced Team	+0.3
16	6-10	CANISI	CANISI×4	Kill	Alli Farmer		+0.2
17	7-10	CANISI	LEMOYN	Kill	Katie Barbour	set Cami Zajac	+0.2
18	7-11	LEMOYN	CANISI	Serve err	LEMOYN server		+0.2
19	8-11	CANISI	LEMOYN×5	Serve err	CANISI server		+0.2
20	9-11	LEMOYN	LEMOYN×5	Kill	Branwyn Lupton	set Katie Barbour	+0.3
21	10-11	LEMOYN	LEMOYN×5	Kill	Nina Salas	set Katie Barbour	+0.4
22	11-11	LEMOYN	LEMOYN×5	Attack err	McKenna Corcoran	blk Branwyn Lupton, Eiley Schneider	+0.5
23	12-11	LEMOYN	LEMOYN×5	Ace	LEMOYN server	aced Alli Farmer	+0.5
24	12-12	LEMOYN	CANISI	Kill	Alli Farmer	set Anna Rich	+0.4
25	13-12	CANISI	LEMOYN	Serve err	CANISI server		+0.5
26	13-13	LEMOYN	CANISI	Serve err	LEMOYN server		+0.4
27	13-14	CANISI	CANISI	Kill	Julia Lenik	set Kenslie Warmbrodt	+0.5
28	14-14	CANISI	LEMOYN	Kill	Jazmin Rodriguez	set Haley Buescher	+0.4
29	14-15	LEMOYN	CANISI	Kill	Julia Lenik	set Kenslie Warmbrodt	+0.4
30	14-16	CANISI	CANISI	Attack err	Jazmin Rodriguez		+0.5
31	15-16	CANISI	LEMOYN	Serve err	CANISI server		+0.4
32	15-17	LEMOYN	CANISI	Kill	Emma Isroff	set Kenslie Warmbrodt	+0.4
33	15-18	CANISI	CANISI	Kill	Hannah Kos	set Anna Rich	+0.4
34	16-18	CANISI	LEMOYN	Kill	Jazmin Rodriguez	set Katie Barbour	+0.3
35	17-18	LEMOYN	LEMOYN	Attack err	Hannah Kos		+0.5
36	17-19	LEMOYN	CANISI×4	Kill	Hannah Kos	set Emily Helmers	+0.4
37	17-20	CANISI	CANISI×4	Attack err	Grace Turrell		+0.4
38	17-21	CANISI	CANISI×4	Kill	Emily Helmers		+0.3
39	17-22	CANISI	CANISI×4	Kill	Hannah Kos	set Anna Rich	+0.2
40	18-22	CANISI	LEMOYN	Serve err	CANISI server		+0.1
41	18-23	LEMOYN	CANISI	Kill	Emily Helmers	set Anna Rich	+0.1
42	19-23	CANISI	LEMOYN	Kill	Payton Horan	set Katie Barbour	+0.1
43	20-23	LEMOYN	LEMOYN	Attack err	Hannah Kos		+0.2
44	20-24	LEMOYN	CANISI	Kill	Hannah Kos	set Brenda Reynaga	+0.2
45	20-25	CANISI	CANISI	Ace	CANISI server	aced Nina Salas	+0.1

Score shown after each rally, Le Moyne first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.