FinalSat, Sep 12, 2026

AwayBIG-12

0:3

HomePATRIOT

American def. Iowa St. 3–0

(25-23, 25-19, 25-22)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
IOWAST	23	19	22	0
AMER	25	25	25	3

RallyIQ model

Win probability

AMER above 50 · IOWAST below

Biggest swing: 10.4% to American — set 1, IOWAST 23-25 AMER. Kill by Deniz Dakak (set by Elise Sterling). AMER win probability 53% → 64%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

IOWAST 56.7%43.3% AMER

Iowa St. wins

3-0

15.5%

3-1

21.6%

3-2

19.6%

American wins

3-0

9.9%

3-1

15.9%

3-2

17.4%

IOWAST break %: 42.1% vs this opp
AMER break %: 40.9% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Deniz DakakKill+10.4%
Kill by Deniz Dakak (set by Elise Sterling)
Set 1 · IOWAST 23-25 AMER · AMER 53% → 64%
02
Alea GoolsbyAttack error+7.2%
Alea Goolsby stuffed by Elise Sterling & Deniz Dakak
Set 1 · IOWAST 23-24 AMER · AMER 46% → 53%
03
Elise SterlingAttack error+6.6%
Elise Sterling stuffed by Macie Lupkes
Set 1 · IOWAST 22-22 AMER · IOWAST 48% → 54%
04
Carly SciborskiKill+6.0%
Kill by Carly Sciborski (set by Deniz Dakak)
Set 1 · IOWAST 20-22 AMER · AMER 49% → 55%
05
Elise SterlingKill+5.8%
Kill by Elise Sterling (set by Deniz Dakak)
Set 1 · IOWAST 22-23 AMER · AMER 46% → 51%
06
Alea GoolsbyKill+5.4%
Kill by Alea Goolsby (set by Ella Florez)
Set 1 · IOWAST 23-23 AMER · IOWAST 49% → 54%
07
Nayeli GonzalezKill+5.3%
Kill by Nayeli Gonzalez (set by Rachel Van Gorp)
Set 1 · IOWAST 20-20 AMER · IOWAST 50% → 55%
08
Carly SciborskiKill+4.3%
Kill by Carly Sciborski (set by Nayeli Gonzalez)
Set 1 · IOWAST 20-21 AMER · AMER 45% → 49%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Iowa St.away

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
20Nayeli Ti'aOH	3	9	5	26	.154	1	1	3	5	0	0	3	1.5	11.5
14Nayeli GonzalezOH	3	10	4	19	.316	0	1	0	3	0	0	0	0	11
1Pam McCuneMB	3	5	0	13	.385	0	0	1	1	0	0	3	1.5	6.5
30Alea GoolsbyOH	3	3	3	12	.000	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	0	3
11Ella FlorezS	3	0	0	1	.000	21	1	1	12	0	0	2	1	2
8Macie LupkesMB	2	1	0	4	.250	0	0	0	2	0	1	1	1.5	2.5
9Mesaiya BettisOH	3	6	6	25	.000	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	6
10Rachel Van GorpL/DS	3	0	0	1	.000	3	2	0	7	0	0	0	0	2
5Daaliyah KempMB	2	4	2	9	.222	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	4.5
17Ava MartinS	2	0	1	1	-1.000	11	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
12Abbi BrenizerMB	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
3Layna WaselewskyL/DS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		38	21	111	.153	36	5	5	41	5	1	10	6	64

Americanhome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
20Prinzez ZeckMB	3	9	2	16	.438	0	0	0	1	0	2	3	3.5	12.5
14Elise SterlingMB	3	8	3	16	.313	1	1	0	3	0	1	4	3	12
17Salme HollasOH	3	10	3	30	.233	1	0	1	9	2	0	0	0	10
23Carly SciborskiOPP	3	7	1	16	.375	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	8
5Deniz DakakS	3	2	0	7	.286	37	2	0	12	0	0	4	2	6
10Alex IoannouL/DS	3	1	0	1	1.000	0	1	1	4	1	0	0	0	2
15Sam McMillanOH	3	6	3	20	.150	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.5	6.5
3Bella MarreroL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	1	1	3	11	1	0	0	0	1
19Olivia MillerDS	3	0	0	0	–	1	0	3	6	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		43	12	106	.292	41	5	8	46	5	3	14	10	75

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 5 IOWAST · AMER 6

Set 1

23-25

Longest run 4 IOWASTAMER 4

Set 2

19-25

Longest run 5 IOWASTAMER 6

Set 3

22-25

Longest run 4 IOWASTAMER 5

Bars above the line = American leads, below = Iowa St. leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Iowa St.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	62%8/13	40%4/10
2	57%8/14	33%4/12
3	57%8/14	33%4/12
4	78%7/9	20%2/10
5	50%5/10	30%3/10
6	36%5/14	55%6/11
All	55%41/74	35%23/65

American

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	62%8/13	59%10/17
2	89%8/9	11%1/9
3	67%8/12	50%8/16
4	64%7/11	36%4/11
5	75%6/8	50%6/12
6	42%5/12	44%4/9
All	65%42/65	45%33/74

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

139 rallies

Rally log

#	IOWAST-AMER	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	AMER	IOWAST	Kill	Nayeli Ti'a	set Ella Florez	+1.8
2	1-1	IOWAST	AMER	Kill	Salme Hollas	set Deniz Dakak	+1.8
3	2-1	AMER	IOWAST	Kill	Nayeli Gonzalez	set Ella Florez	+1.8
4	2-2	IOWAST	AMER	Kill	Salme Hollas	set Deniz Dakak	+1.8
5	2-3	AMER	AMER	Attack err	Alea Goolsby	blk Elise Sterling, Deniz Dakak	+2.7
6	3-3	AMER	IOWAST	Kill	Macie Lupkes	set Ella Florez	+1.9
7	3-4	IOWAST	AMER	Kill	Elise Sterling	set Deniz Dakak	+1.9
8	4-4	AMER	IOWAST	Kill	Mesaiya Bettis	set Rachel Van Gorp	+1.9
9	4-5	IOWAST	AMER	Attack err	Nayeli Ti'a		+2.0
10	4-6	AMER	AMER	Kill	Prinzez Zeck	set Deniz Dakak	+2.8
11	5-6	AMER	IOWAST	Kill	Mesaiya Bettis	set Ava Martin	+1.9
12	6-6	IOWAST	IOWAST	Attack err	Sam McMillan		+2.8
13	6-7	IOWAST	AMER×4	Kill	Sam McMillan	set Deniz Dakak	+2.1
14	6-8	AMER	AMER×4	Attack err	Mesaiya Bettis		+3.0
15	6-9	AMER	AMER×4	Bad set	Ava Martin		+2.9
16	6-10	AMER	AMER×4	Ace	AMER server	aced Team	+2.7
17	7-10	AMER	IOWAST	Kill	Pam McCune	set Ava Martin	+1.6
18	7-11	IOWAST	AMER×3	Kill	Salme Hollas	set Deniz Dakak	+1.9
19	7-12	AMER	AMER×3	Attack err	Nayeli Gonzalez	blk Prinzez Zeck, Carly Sciborski	+2.4
20	7-13	AMER	AMER×3	Ace	AMER server	aced Alea Goolsby	+2.0
21	8-13	AMER	IOWAST	Kill	Nayeli Ti'a	set Ella Florez	+1.0
22	8-14	IOWAST	AMER	Kill	Carly Sciborski	set Deniz Dakak	+1.4
23	9-14	AMER	IOWAST	Serve err	AMER server		+1.0
24	9-15	IOWAST	AMER	Kill	Salme Hollas	set Bella Marrero	+1.4
25	9-16	AMER	AMER	Kill	Elise Sterling	set Deniz Dakak	+1.4
26	10-16	AMER	IOWAST	Kill	Nayeli Gonzalez	set Ella Florez	+0.7
27	10-17	IOWAST	AMER	Kill	Salme Hollas	set Deniz Dakak	+1.0
28	11-17	AMER	IOWAST	Kill	Mesaiya Bettis	set Ava Martin	+0.6
29	11-18	IOWAST	AMER	Kill	Elise Sterling	set Deniz Dakak	+0.9
30	12-18	AMER	IOWAST	Kill	Nayeli Ti'a	set Ava Martin	+0.5
31	13-18	IOWAST	IOWAST	Kill	Mesaiya Bettis	set Ava Martin	+1.1
32	13-19	IOWAST	AMER	Kill	Prinzez Zeck	set Deniz Dakak	+1.2
33	14-19	AMER	IOWAST×3	Kill	Pam McCune	set Ava Martin	+0.7
34	15-19	IOWAST	IOWAST×3	Ace	IOWAST server	aced Sam McMillan	+1.6
35	16-19	IOWAST	IOWAST×3	Kill	Nayeli Ti'a	set Ella Florez	+2.3
36	16-20	IOWAST	AMER	Kill	Prinzez Zeck	set Deniz Dakak	+2.3
37	17-20	AMER	IOWAST×4	Kill	Nayeli Gonzalez	set Ella Florez	+1.5
38	18-20	IOWAST	IOWAST×4	Attack err	Prinzez Zeck		+3.1
39	19-20	IOWAST	IOWAST×4	Ace	IOWAST server	aced Bella Marrero	+4.2
40	20-20	IOWAST	IOWAST×4	Kill	Nayeli Gonzalez	set Rachel Van Gorp	+5.3
41	20-21	IOWAST	AMER	Kill	Carly Sciborski	set Nayeli Gonzalez	+4.3
42	20-22	AMER	AMER	Kill	Carly Sciborski	set Deniz Dakak	+6.0
43	21-22	AMER	IOWAST	Serve err	AMER server		+3.3
44	22-22	IOWAST	IOWAST	Attack err	Elise Sterling	blk Macie Lupkes	+6.6
45	22-23	IOWAST	AMER	Kill	Elise Sterling	set Deniz Dakak	+5.8
46	23-23	AMER	IOWAST	Kill	Alea Goolsby	set Ella Florez	+5.4
47	23-24	IOWAST	AMER	Attack err	Alea Goolsby	blk Elise Sterling, Deniz Dakak	+7.2
48	23-25	AMER	AMER	Kill	Deniz Dakak	set Elise Sterling	+10.4
Set 2
1	0-1	IOWAST	AMER	Kill	Prinzez Zeck	set Deniz Dakak	+1.9
2	1-1	AMER	IOWAST	Kill	Nayeli Ti'a	set Ella Florez	+1.9
3	1-2	IOWAST	AMER×4	Kill	Carly Sciborski	set Deniz Dakak	+2.0
4	1-3	AMER	AMER×4	Attack err	Nayeli Gonzalez		+2.8
5	1-4	AMER	AMER×4	Kill	Carly Sciborski	set Deniz Dakak	+2.8
6	1-5	AMER	AMER×4	Ace	AMER server	aced Team	+2.6
7	2-5	AMER	IOWAST	Kill	Mesaiya Bettis	set Ella Florez	+1.7
8	3-5	IOWAST	IOWAST	Ace	IOWAST server	aced Alex Ioannou	+2.6
9	3-6	IOWAST	AMER×4	Attack err	Mesaiya Bettis		+2.1
10	3-7	AMER	AMER×4	Attack err	Mesaiya Bettis	blk Elise Sterling, Deniz Dakak	+2.7
11	3-8	AMER	AMER×4	Attack err	Nayeli Gonzalez		+2.4
12	3-9	AMER	AMER×4	Kill	Deniz Dakak	set Salme Hollas	+2.1
13	4-9	AMER	IOWAST	Serve err	AMER server		+1.2
14	4-10	IOWAST	AMER	Attack err	Mesaiya Bettis	blk Elise Sterling, Deniz Dakak	+1.5
15	4-11	AMER	AMER	Kill	Sam McMillan	set Deniz Dakak	+1.7
16	5-11	AMER	IOWAST	Kill	Mesaiya Bettis	set Ella Florez	+0.9
17	5-12	IOWAST	AMER	Attack err	Mesaiya Bettis		+1.2
18	6-12	AMER	IOWAST×5	Kill	Nayeli Ti'a	set Ella Florez	+0.9
19	7-12	IOWAST	IOWAST×5	Kill	Nayeli Ti'a	set Ella Florez	+1.6
20	8-12	IOWAST	IOWAST×5	Attack err	Prinzez Zeck		+2.1
21	9-12	IOWAST	IOWAST×5	Attack err	Sam McMillan	blk Macie Lupkes, Ella Florez	+2.5
22	10-12	IOWAST	IOWAST×5	Kill	Nayeli Ti'a	set Ella Florez	+3.0
23	10-13	IOWAST	AMER×6	Kill	Prinzez Zeck	set Deniz Dakak	+2.4
24	10-14	AMER	AMER×6	Attack err	Mesaiya Bettis	blk Prinzez Zeck	+3.1
25	10-15	AMER	AMER×6	Kill	Prinzez Zeck	set Deniz Dakak	+2.6
26	10-16	AMER	AMER×6	Ace	AMER server	aced Team	+2.0
27	10-17	AMER	AMER×6	Kill	Sam McMillan	set Bella Marrero	+1.4
28	10-18	AMER	AMER×6	Attack err	Nayeli Ti'a		+0.9
29	11-18	AMER	IOWAST	Bad set	Bella Marrero		+0.4
30	12-18	IOWAST	IOWAST	Kill	Daaliyah Kemp	set Ella Florez	+0.8
31	12-19	IOWAST	AMER	Serve err	IOWAST server		+0.9
32	13-19	AMER	IOWAST	Attack err	Salme Hollas		+0.5
33	13-20	IOWAST	AMER×3	Serve err	IOWAST server		+0.8
34	13-21	AMER	AMER×3	Attack err	Daaliyah Kemp	blk Elise Sterling	+0.6
35	13-22	AMER	AMER×3	Attack err	Daaliyah Kemp		+0.3
36	14-22	AMER	IOWAST×3	Kill	Daaliyah Kemp	set Ella Florez	+0.1
37	15-22	IOWAST	IOWAST×3	Kill	Nayeli Gonzalez	set Nayeli Ti'a	+0.2
38	16-22	IOWAST	IOWAST×3	Ace	IOWAST server	aced Salme Hollas	+0.3
39	16-23	IOWAST	AMER	Kill	Elise Sterling	set Deniz Dakak	+0.4
40	17-23	AMER	IOWAST	Kill	Nayeli Gonzalez	set Ella Florez	+0.1
41	18-23	IOWAST	IOWAST	Attack err	Salme Hollas	blk Ella Florez, Pam McCune	+0.4
42	18-24	IOWAST	AMER	Kill	Elise Sterling	set Deniz Dakak	+0.5
43	19-24	AMER	IOWAST	Kill	Alea Goolsby	set Ella Florez	+0.1
44	19-25	IOWAST	AMER	Attack err	Nayeli Ti'a		+0.3
Set 3
1	0-1	AMER	AMER	Kill	Salme Hollas	set Deniz Dakak	+1.9
2	0-2	AMER	AMER	Kill	Carly Sciborski	set Deniz Dakak	+1.9
3	1-2	AMER	IOWAST	Kill	Pam McCune	set Ella Florez	+1.3
4	1-3	IOWAST	AMER	Serve err	IOWAST server		+1.4
5	2-3	AMER	IOWAST	Attack err	Elise Sterling		+1.3
6	2-4	IOWAST	AMER	Kill	Salme Hollas	set Deniz Dakak	+1.4
7	3-4	AMER	IOWAST	Kill	Daaliyah Kemp	set Ella Florez	+1.4
8	4-4	IOWAST	IOWAST	Kill	Nayeli Gonzalez	set Ava Martin	+2.0
9	4-5	IOWAST	AMER	Kill	Alex Ioannou	set Olivia Miller	+1.5
10	5-5	AMER	IOWAST×4	Kill	Alea Goolsby	set Olivia Miller	+1.5
11	6-5	IOWAST	IOWAST×4	Kill	Nayeli Ti'a	set Rachel Van Gorp	+2.1
12	7-5	IOWAST	IOWAST×4	Ace	IOWAST server	aced Salme Hollas	+2.1
13	8-5	IOWAST	IOWAST×4	Attack err	Elise Sterling	blk Nayeli Ti'a	+1.9
14	8-6	IOWAST	AMER	Kill	Sam McMillan	set Deniz Dakak	+1.3
15	9-6	AMER	IOWAST	Kill	Nayeli Gonzalez	set Ava Martin	+1.4
16	9-7	IOWAST	AMER	Kill	Salme Hollas	set Deniz Dakak	+1.3
17	9-8	AMER	AMER	Attack err	Nayeli Ti'a	blk Prinzez Zeck, Carly Sciborski	+2.1
18	10-8	AMER	IOWAST	Attack err	Sam McMillan		+1.6
19	10-9	IOWAST	AMER	Kill	Carly Sciborski	set Deniz Dakak	+1.5
20	10-10	AMER	AMER	Kill	Prinzez Zeck	set Deniz Dakak	+2.4
21	11-10	AMER	IOWAST	Attack err	Salme Hollas	blk Pam McCune, Nayeli Ti'a	+1.7
22	12-10	IOWAST	IOWAST	Kill	Nayeli Gonzalez		+2.4
23	12-11	IOWAST	AMER	Serve err	IOWAST server		+1.6
24	13-11	AMER	IOWAST	Serve err	AMER server		+1.7
25	13-12	IOWAST	AMER	Serve err	IOWAST server		+1.7
26	13-13	AMER	AMER	Attack err	Nayeli Gonzalez		+2.6
27	14-13	AMER	IOWAST	Serve err	AMER server		+1.9
28	14-14	IOWAST	AMER	Kill	Elise Sterling	set Deniz Dakak	+1.9
29	15-14	AMER	IOWAST	Serve err	AMER server		+2.0
30	15-15	IOWAST	AMER×5	Kill	Sam McMillan	set Deniz Dakak	+2.0
31	15-16	AMER	AMER×5	Attack err	Ava Martin	blk Prinzez Zeck	+3.1
32	15-17	AMER	AMER×5	Ace	AMER server	aced Team	+3.1
33	15-18	AMER	AMER×5	Attack err	Alea Goolsby	blk Prinzez Zeck, Sam McMillan	+2.9
34	15-19	AMER	AMER×5	Kill	Prinzez Zeck	set Deniz Dakak	+2.4
35	16-19	AMER	IOWAST	Kill	Daaliyah Kemp	set Ava Martin	+1.2
36	16-20	IOWAST	AMER	Kill	Prinzez Zeck	set Deniz Dakak	+1.7
37	17-20	AMER	IOWAST	Kill	Pam McCune	set Ava Martin	+1.2
38	18-20	IOWAST	IOWAST	Attack err	Carly Sciborski	blk Pam McCune, Nayeli Ti'a	+2.4
39	18-21	IOWAST	AMER	Attack err	Nayeli Ti'a		+2.3
40	19-21	AMER	IOWAST	Serve err	AMER server		+1.6
41	19-22	IOWAST	AMER	Kill	Salme Hollas	set Deniz Dakak	+2.4
42	20-22	AMER	IOWAST	Kill	Pam McCune	set Ella Florez	+1.6
43	20-23	IOWAST	AMER	Kill	Salme Hollas	set Deniz Dakak	+2.5
44	21-23	AMER	IOWAST	Serve err	AMER server		+1.4
45	21-24	IOWAST	AMER	Kill	Elise Sterling	set Deniz Dakak	+2.6
46	22-24	AMER	IOWAST	Kill	Nayeli Gonzalez	set Ava Martin	+1.0
47	22-25	IOWAST	AMER	Kill	Sam McMillan	set Deniz Dakak	+2.4

Score shown after each rally, Iowa St. first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.