Final · 4 setsSat, Oct 31, 2026Watch on ESPN+

American def. Lafayette 3–1

RallyIQ pre-match: American 96.8% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Oct 31, 4:55 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

American won at Lafayette 3-1 (25-21, 25-17, 22-25, 25-17) on Sat, Oct 31, 2026. American's Elise Sterling and Sophie Dufour led with 14 kills each, and Bella Marrero added 19 digs.

Data through · final Oct 31

Set1234Sets
AMER252522253
LAFAYE211725171

Match story · written from the play-by-play

American broke it open with an 8–0 run in the second set.

The biggest single-rally swing was 1.3 points, and Lafayette's high was 7% in Set 1. The gap came from these numbers. RallyIQ gave American 97% before first serve.

AmericanLafayette
  • Break %+10.7 pts
    49.038.3

    Points won on own serve: 47 of 96 vs 31 of 81. Lafayette sided out 51.0% of the time.

  • Hitting+.120
    .240.120

    Kills and errors: 57–21 vs 40–23.

  • Longest run+4
    84

    American scored 8 straight in the second set to turn a 10–16 deficit into an 18–16 lead. That set ended 25–17.

Lafayette above 50American belowMax swing 1.3%

AmericanLafayette

Aces
American 7·Lafayette 7
Serve err
American 10·Lafayette 8
Blocks
American 8·Lafayette 121 BS · 14 BA vs 1 BS · 22 BA
Digs
American 73·Lafayette 56

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Lafayette above 50 · American below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100+1.3% LAFAYErally 177 · set 4

Biggest swing: 1.3% to Lafayette — set 4, AMER 12-12 LAFAYE. Kill by Paige Chmura (set by Mackenzie Calhoun). LAFAYE win probability 3% → 4%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

AMER 96.4%3.6% LAFAYE

American wins

3-0
60.0%
3-1
28.2%
3-2
8.2%

Lafayette wins

3-0
0.4%
3-1
1.0%
3-2
2.2%
AMER break %
51.0% vs this opp
LAFAYE break %
37.2% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Paige ChmuraKill+1.3%

    Kill by Paige Chmura (set by Mackenzie Calhoun)

    Set 4 · AMER 12-12 LAFAYE · LAFAYE 3% → 4%

  2. 02
    LafayetteAce+1.2%

    Lafayette ace on Salme Hollas

    Set 4 · AMER 0-3 LAFAYE · LAFAYE 5% → 6%

  3. 03
    Salme HollasAttack error+1.2%

    Attack error by Salme Hollas

    Set 4 · AMER 3-5 LAFAYE · LAFAYE 4% → 6%

  4. 04
    Salme HollasAttack error+1.1%

    Attack error by Salme Hollas

    Set 4 · AMER 0-2 LAFAYE · LAFAYE 4% → 5%

  5. 05

    Sophie Dufour stuffed by Noa Kamphuis & Paige Chmura

    Set 1 · AMER 10-13 LAFAYE · LAFAYE 6% → 7%

  6. 06
    Prinzez ZeckKill+1.0%

    Kill by Prinzez Zeck (set by Deniz Dakak)

    Set 4 · AMER 14-12 LAFAYE · AMER 96% → 98%

  7. 07

    Kill by Elise Sterling (set by Deniz Dakak)

    Set 1 · AMER 16-16 LAFAYE · AMER 94% → 95%

  8. 08

    Kill by Elise Sterling (set by Bella Marrero)

    Set 4 · AMER 2-3 LAFAYE · AMER 95% → 96%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
414425.40001240153.518.5
414434.2943015100014
413643.16310092010.513.5
48221.286000200219
4309.3334121100031.56.5
4001.000131810003
44312.08310150031.55.5
4000–4021920000
3013-.3331011100000
1112.000000000001
1000–011000001
Team totals5721150.24052710737114897
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
4141045.08902115202117
49532.12500010052.511.5
44115.2000000001059
4000–2130900003
42210.00000421010.52.5
4028-.250112710001
46216.250000000428
4002.0004101110001
35113.308000801016
3001.0001001200000
1000–000000000
1000–200100000
Team totals4023142.12038785671221280

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

American vs Lafayette

Season series · American leads 2-0

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 8 AMER · LAFAYE 4

Set 1

25-21

Longest run 3 AMERLAFAYE 4

Set 2

25-17

Longest run 8 AMERLAFAYE 4

Set 3

22-25

Longest run 5 AMERLAFAYE 3

Set 4

25-17

Longest run 5 AMERLAFAYE 3

Bars above the line = Lafayette leads, below = American leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

American

SlotSideout %Break %
1
57%8/14
33%3/9
2
67%8/12
38%5/13
3
67%8/12
56%10/18
4
55%6/11
63%12/19
5
83%5/6
17%1/6
6
56%5/9
17%1/6
All
63%40/64
45%32/71

Lafayette

SlotSideout %Break %
1
62%8/13
46%6/13
2
73%8/11
43%6/14
3
36%8/22
33%4/12
4
42%5/12
22%2/9
5
83%5/6
38%3/8
6
71%5/7
38%3/8
All
55%39/71
38%24/64

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

177 rallies

#AMER-LAFAYESrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
10-1LAFAYELAFAYE×4AceLafayetteaced Salme Hollas+0.5
20-2LAFAYELAFAYE×4Attack errElise Sterling+0.6
30-3LAFAYELAFAYE×4BlockedSophie Dufourblk Paige Chmura, Noa Kamphuis+0.7
40-4LAFAYELAFAYE×4AceLafayette+0.8
51-4LAFAYEAMERKillElise Sterlingset Deniz Dakak+0.5
61-5AMERLAFAYEServe errAmerican+0.6
71-6LAFAYELAFAYEBlockedSophie Dufourblk Noa Kamphuis, Paige Chmura+0.8
82-6LAFAYEAMERKillSophie Dufourset Deniz Dakak+0.5
93-6AMERAMERAceAmericanaced Destiny McKenzie+0.7
103-7AMERLAFAYEKillJustine Puigset Mackenzie Calhoun+0.7
114-7LAFAYEAMERAttack errJohanna Groger+0.5
124-8AMERLAFAYEKillJustine Puigset Mackenzie Calhoun+0.7
135-8LAFAYEAMERKillSydney Guerrierset Deniz Dakak+0.6
146-8AMERAMERAttack errJohanna Groger+0.7
156-9AMERLAFAYEKillJohanna Grogerset LK LaMonica+0.7
167-9LAFAYEAMERKillElise Sterlingset Deniz Dakak+0.6
177-10AMERLAFAYEKillJohanna Grogerset LK LaMonica+0.7
188-10LAFAYEAMERServe errLafayette+0.6
198-11AMERLAFAYEAttack errNoa Kamphuis+0.8
209-11LAFAYEAMERKillSophie Dufourset Deniz Dakak+0.6
2110-11AMERAMERKillSophie Dufourset Deniz Dakak+0.8
2210-12AMERLAFAYEKillNoa Kamphuisset Mackenzie Calhoun+0.8
2310-13LAFAYELAFAYEBlockedSophie Dufourblk Noa Kamphuis, Paige Chmura+1.1
2411-13LAFAYEAMERServe errLafayette+0.7
2511-14AMERLAFAYEKillNoa Kamphuisset Mackenzie Calhoun+0.9
2612-14LAFAYEAMERKillSydney Guerrierset Deniz Dakak+0.7
2713-14AMERAMERKillSalme Hollasset Bella Marrero+0.9
2813-15AMERLAFAYEKillJustine Puigset Mackenzie Calhoun+0.9
2914-15LAFAYEAMERKillSalme Hollasset Deniz Dakak+0.7
3014-16AMERLAFAYEServe errAmerican+1.0
3115-16LAFAYEAMERKillSophie Dufour+0.8
3216-16AMERAMERKillElise Sterlingset Deniz Dakak+1.0
3316-17AMERLAFAYEBlockedSalme Hollasblk Jada Aksu, Johanna Groger+0.9
3417-17LAFAYEAMER×3Serve errLafayette+0.8
3518-17AMERAMER×3KillSophie Dufourset Salme Hollas+1.0
3619-17AMERAMER×3KillSophie Dufourset Bella Marrero+0.8
3719-18AMERLAFAYEAttack errElise Sterling+0.6
3820-18LAFAYEAMERAttack errDestiny McKenzie+0.7
3921-18AMERAMERKillSophie Dufourset Deniz Dakak+0.7
4021-19AMERLAFAYEAttack errElise Sterling+0.4
4122-19LAFAYEAMERKillSophie Dufourset Deniz Dakak+0.5
4222-20AMERLAFAYEKillNoa Kamphuisset Mackenzie Calhoun+0.4
4323-20LAFAYEAMERBlockedJustine Puigblk Sydney Guerrier, Prinzez Zeck+0.6
4424-20AMERAMERKillSalme Hollasset Deniz Dakak+0.4
4524-21AMERLAFAYEKillPaige Chmuraset Mackenzie Calhoun+0.1
4625-21LAFAYEAMERAttack errJustine Puig+0.2
Set 2
11-0AMERAMERAceAmericanaced Justine Puig+0.2
21-1AMERLAFAYEKillNoa Kamphuisset Mackenzie Calhoun+0.2
32-1LAFAYEAMERServe errLafayette+0.2
43-1AMERAMERBlockedJustine Puigblk Sydney Guerrier, Prinzez Zeck+0.2
53-2AMERLAFAYEKillJustine Puigset Mackenzie Calhoun+0.2
64-2LAFAYEAMERAttack errJustine Puig+0.2
75-2AMERAMERKillSalme Hollasset Deniz Dakak+0.2
85-3AMERLAFAYEKillJustine Puigset Alyssa Chu+0.2
96-3LAFAYEAMERKillSalme Hollasset Sophie Dufour+0.1
106-4AMERLAFAYE×4Serve errAmerican+0.2
116-5LAFAYELAFAYE×4AceLafayetteaced Bella Marrero+0.3
126-6LAFAYELAFAYE×4AceLafayetteaced Sophie Dufour+0.3
136-7LAFAYELAFAYE×4KillAuma Mbeche-Odhiamboset Sophia Wilson+0.4
147-7LAFAYEAMERKillElise Sterlingset Deniz Dakak+0.3
157-8AMERLAFAYEKillJada Aksuset Sophia Wilson+0.3
167-9LAFAYELAFAYEBlockedSophie Dufourblk Jada Aksu, Noa Kamphuis+0.5
178-9LAFAYEAMERServe errLafayette+0.3
188-10AMERLAFAYE×3KillJada Aksuset Sophia Wilson+0.4
198-11LAFAYELAFAYE×3KillAuma Mbeche-Odhiamboset Alyssa Chu+0.6
208-12LAFAYELAFAYE×3AceLafayetteaced Bella Marrero+0.6
219-12LAFAYEAMERKillSophie Dufourset Olivia Miller+0.4
229-13AMERLAFAYE×3Serve errAmerican+0.5
239-14LAFAYELAFAYE×3KillPaige Chmura+0.7
249-15LAFAYELAFAYE×3BlockedSydney Guerrierblk Justine Puig, Noa Kamphuis+0.7
2510-15LAFAYEAMERKillPrinzez Zeckset Deniz Dakak+0.4
2610-16AMERLAFAYEServe errAmerican+0.6
2711-16LAFAYEAMER×8KillSalme Hollasset Deniz Dakak+0.3
2812-16AMERAMER×8KillElise Sterlingset Deniz Dakak+0.5
2913-16AMERAMER×8KillSalme Hollasset Deniz Dakak+0.6
3014-16AMERAMER×8BlockedJustine Puigblk Sydney Guerrier, Elise Sterling+0.6
3115-16AMERAMER×8KillSydney Guerrierset Deniz Dakak+0.6
3216-16AMERAMER×8Attack errPaige Chmura+0.6
3317-16AMERAMER×8KillElise Sterlingset Bella Marrero+0.6
3418-16AMERAMER×8KillSydney Guerrierset Deniz Dakak+0.5
3518-17AMERLAFAYEKillPaige Chmuraset Mackenzie Calhoun+0.4
3619-17LAFAYEAMER×7KillElise Sterlingset Deniz Dakak+0.4
3720-17AMERAMER×7AceAmerican+0.4
3821-17AMERAMER×7KillElise Sterlingset Deniz Dakak+0.3
3922-17AMERAMER×7AceAmericanaced Alyssa Chu+0.1
4023-17AMERAMER×7KillElise Sterlingset Deniz Dakak+0.1
4124-17AMERAMER×7KillElise Sterlingset Deniz Dakak·
4225-17AMERAMER×7AceAmericanaced Johanna Groger·
Set 3
11-0LAFAYEAMERKillPrinzez Zeckset Deniz Dakak+0.1
21-1AMERLAFAYEAttack errSydney Guerrier+0.1
32-1LAFAYEAMERKillElise Sterlingset Deniz Dakak+0.1
43-1AMERAMERBlockedJustine Puigblk Deniz Dakak, Elise Sterling+0.1
53-2AMERLAFAYEServe errAmerican+0.1
63-3LAFAYELAFAYEKillPaige Chmuraset Mackenzie Calhoun+0.1
74-3LAFAYEAMERKillDeniz Dakakset Deniz Dakak+0.1
84-4AMERLAFAYEKillPaige Chmuraset Mackenzie Calhoun+0.1
94-5LAFAYELAFAYEKillJustine Puigset Alyssa Chu+0.2
105-5LAFAYEAMERServe errLafayette+0.1
115-6AMERLAFAYEKillJustine Puigset Sophia Wilson+0.1
126-6LAFAYEAMERServe errLafayette+0.1
136-7AMERLAFAYEKillJada Aksuset Sophia Wilson+0.1
146-8LAFAYELAFAYEBlockedPrinzez Zeckblk Jada Aksu, Noa Kamphuis+0.2
157-8LAFAYEAMERKillPrinzez Zeckset Sophie Dufour+0.1
167-9AMERLAFAYEBlockedSalme Hollasblk Jada Aksu, Noa Kamphuis+0.2
178-9LAFAYEAMERAttack errSalme Hollas+0.1
188-10AMERLAFAYEKillAuma Mbeche-Odhiamboset Mackenzie Calhoun+0.2
199-10LAFAYEAMERKillSalme Hollasset Deniz Dakak+0.2
209-11AMERLAFAYE×3KillJustine Puigset Destiny McKenzie+0.2
219-12LAFAYELAFAYE×3AceLafayetteaced Olivia Miller+0.3
229-13LAFAYELAFAYE×3KillPaige Chmuraset Mackenzie Calhoun+0.3
2310-13LAFAYEAMER×5Attack errDestiny McKenzie+0.2
2411-13AMERAMER×5KillSophie Dufourset Deniz Dakak+0.2
2512-13AMERAMER×5BlockedJustine Puigblk Deniz Dakak, Elise Sterling+0.2
2613-13AMERAMER×5Attack errJustine Puig+0.2
2714-13AMERAMER×5Attack errPaige Chmura+0.2
2814-14AMERLAFAYEKillJustine Puigset Mackenzie Calhoun+0.2
2915-14LAFAYEAMERAttack errJada Aksu+0.2
3015-15AMERLAFAYEKillJustine Puigset Sophia Wilson+0.2
3116-15LAFAYEAMERKillSophie Dufourset Deniz Dakak+0.2
3216-16AMERLAFAYEKillJustine Puig+0.2
3316-17LAFAYELAFAYEKillJada Aksuset Sophia Wilson+0.3
3417-17LAFAYEAMERKillPrinzez Zeckset Deniz Dakak+0.2
3517-18AMERLAFAYEServe errAmerican+0.3
3618-18LAFAYEAMER×3KillPrinzez Zeckset Deniz Dakak+0.2
3719-18AMERAMER×3BlockedNoa Kamphuisblk Elise Sterling, Salme Hollas+0.3
3820-18AMERAMER×3KillMonyay Crowderset Deniz Dakak+0.2
3920-19AMERLAFAYE×3Serve errAmerican+0.2
4020-20LAFAYELAFAYE×3BlockedElise Sterlingblk Noa Kamphuis, Paige Chmura+0.4
4120-21LAFAYELAFAYE×3BlockedMonyay Crowderblk Noa Kamphuis, Justine Puig+0.5
4221-21LAFAYEAMERKillSalme Hollasset Deniz Dakak+0.3
4321-22AMERLAFAYEKillPaige Chmuraset Mackenzie Calhoun+0.5
4421-23LAFAYELAFAYEAttack errSalme Hollas+0.7
4522-23LAFAYEAMERAttack errPaige Chmura+0.4
4622-24AMERLAFAYEKillJustine Puigset Mackenzie Calhoun+0.7
4722-25LAFAYELAFAYEKillJada Aksuset Sophia Wilson+0.6
Set 4
10-1AMERLAFAYE×3BlockedSydney Guerrierblk Noa Kamphuis, Paige Chmura+0.7
20-2LAFAYELAFAYE×3Attack errSalme Hollas+1.1
30-3LAFAYELAFAYE×3AceLafayetteaced Salme Hollas+1.2
41-3LAFAYEAMER×3KillSalme Hollasset Sydney Guerrier+0.8
52-3AMERAMER×3KillElise Sterlingset Bella Marrero+1.0
63-3AMERAMER×3Attack errJustine Puig+0.9
73-4AMERLAFAYEAttack errSalme Hollas+0.8
83-5LAFAYELAFAYEAttack errSalme Hollas+1.2
94-5LAFAYEAMERKillElise Sterlingset Deniz Dakak+0.8
105-5AMERAMERAttack errPaige Chmura+1.0
115-6AMERLAFAYEKillPaige Chmuraset Mackenzie Calhoun+0.9
126-6LAFAYEAMER×3KillElise Sterlingset Deniz Dakak+0.8
137-6AMERAMER×3BlockedJada Aksublk Elise Sterling, Deniz Dakak+0.9
148-6AMERAMER×3AceAmericanaced Justine Puig+0.8
158-7AMERLAFAYEServe errAmerican+0.7
169-7LAFAYEAMER×3KillSophie Dufourset Deniz Dakak+0.6
1710-7AMERAMER×3KillSophie Dufourset Deniz Dakak+0.7
1811-7AMERAMER×3KillDeniz Dakakset Sophie Dufour+0.5
1911-8AMERLAFAYEBlockedPrinzez Zeckblk Auma Mbeche-Odhiambo+0.4
2011-9LAFAYELAFAYEKillJada Aksuset Sophia Wilson+0.7
2112-9LAFAYEAMERServe errLafayette+0.5
2212-10AMERLAFAYE×3Attack errAuma Mbeche-Odhiambo+0.6
2312-11LAFAYELAFAYE×3KillAuma Mbeche-Odhiamboset Alyssa Chu+1.0
2412-12LAFAYELAFAYE×3KillPaige Chmuraset Mackenzie Calhoun+1.3
2513-12LAFAYEAMER×4KillSophie Dufourset Deniz Dakak+0.9
2614-12AMERAMER×4KillPrinzez Zeckset Deniz Dakak+1.0
2715-12AMERAMER×4Attack errAuma Mbeche-Odhiambo+0.8
2816-12AMERAMER×4Serve errAmerican+0.6
2916-13AMERLAFAYEKillAuma Mbeche-Odhiamboset Mackenzie Calhoun+0.5
3017-13LAFAYEAMERKillPrinzez Zeckset Bella Marrero+0.5
3117-14AMERLAFAYEKillJustine Puigset Mackenzie Calhoun+0.5
3218-14LAFAYEAMER×5Attack errJustine Puig+0.5
3319-14AMERAMER×5KillSalme Hollasset Deniz Dakak+0.4
3420-14AMERAMER×5BlockedPaige Chmurablk Elise Sterling+0.3
3521-14AMERAMER×5KillSalme Hollasset Deniz Dakak+0.1
3622-14AMERAMER×5KillSalme Hollasset Deniz Dakak+0.1
3722-15AMERLAFAYEAttack errZedo Yilmaz·
3823-15LAFAYEAMERKillDeniz Dakakset Zedo Yilmaz·
3923-16AMERLAFAYEKillJustine Puigset Sophia Wilson·
40–4124-17AMER · LAFAYE
NCAA feed gap2 points not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

·
4225-17AMERAMERKillPrinzez Zeckset Deniz Dakak·

Score shown after each rally, American first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).