Final · 5 setsSat, Aug 29, 2026

American def. Northwestern 3–2

American beat visiting Northwestern 3-2 (22-25, 25-21, 20-25, 25-19, 15-12) on Sat, Aug 29, 2026. American's Elise Sterling led with 20 kills, and Bella Marrero added 20 digs.

Data through · final Aug 29

Set12345Sets
NW25212519122
AMER22252025153

Win probability

American above 50 · Northwestern below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 4SET 510050100+17.9% AMERrally 209 · set 5

Biggest swing: 17.9% to American — set 5, NW 11-12 AMER. American ace on Drew Wright. AMER win probability 49% → 67%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

NW 45.0%55.0% AMER

Northwestern wins

3-0
10.5%
3-1
16.7%
3-2
17.8%

American wins

3-0
14.7%
3-1
20.8%
3-2
19.5%
NW break %
41.5% vs this opp
AMER break %
42.4% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    AmericanAce+17.9%

    American ace on Drew Wright

    Set 5 · NW 11-12 AMER · AMER 49% → 67%

  2. 02
    Elise SterlingKill+17.0%

    Kill by Elise Sterling (set by Deniz Dakak)

    Set 5 · NW 11-13 AMER · AMER 67% → 84%

  3. 03
    Mara StiglicKill+16.0%

    Kill by Mara Stiglic

    Set 5 · NW 11-10 AMER · NW 46% → 62%

  4. 04
    Hayley SchaafBlock+12.9%

    Prinzez Zeck stuffed by Hayley Schaaf

    Set 5 · NW 9-9 AMER · NW 34% → 47%

  5. 05
    AmericanAce+11.9%

    American ace on Gigi Navarrete

    Set 5 · NW 11-14 AMER · AMER 84% → 96%

  6. 06
    Salme HollasKill+11.2%

    Kill by Salme Hollas (set by Alex Ioannou)

    Set 5 · NW 11-11 AMER · AMER 38% → 49%

  7. 07
    Isabella BullingtonAttack error+10.2%

    Attack error by Isabella Bullington

    Set 5 · NW 9-10 AMER · AMER 53% → 64%

  8. 08
    Sam McMillanKill+10.2%

    Kill by Sam McMillan (set by Deniz Dakak)

    Set 5 · NW 4-5 AMER · AMER 50% → 61%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
515628.32121573111.517.5
514642.1900006002115
58415.26700020153.511.5
57317.235006101018
5305.60043111200004
5000–211410001
515331.3870001022318
5000–800530000
5000–100600000
4000–011000001
3000–000000000
2000–300000000
1103.333000000001
1000–000000000
Team totals6322141.2915941444751010102
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
520533.45502220031.523.5
514535.2571013002115
512524.29210010031.513.5
59221.3331000012211
5219.1115222601015
1025-.400000100000
55514.000000110216
5000–121300002
5000–4111010001
5000–1032010000
Team totals6225141.262617104742128107

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 5 NW · AMER 5

Set 1

25-22

Longest run 5 NWAMER 4

Set 2

21-25

Longest run 3 NWAMER 5

Set 3

25-20

Longest run 3 NWAMER 3

Set 4

19-25

Longest run 4 NWAMER 4

Set 5

12-15

Longest run 2 NWAMER 4

Bars above the line = American leads, below = Northwestern leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Northwestern

SlotSideout %Break %
1
65%13/20
17%2/12
2
57%12/21
38%8/21
3
50%12/24
25%4/16
4
61%11/18
50%11/22
5
67%10/15
15%2/13
6
89%8/9
50%9/18
All
62%66/107
35%36/102

American

SlotSideout %Break %
1
62%13/21
35%6/17
2
75%12/16
33%6/18
3
67%12/18
50%12/24
4
58%11/19
48%11/23
5
63%10/16
29%4/14
6
67%8/12
18%2/11
All
65%66/102
38%41/107

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (5 of 5 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

209 rallies

#NW-AMERSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
11-0NWNWKillEllie Stiernagleset Ellie Stiernagle+2.5
21-1NWAMERServe errNorthwestern+1.8
32-1AMERNWAttack errCarly Sciborski+1.9
42-2NWAMERServe errNorthwestern+1.8
52-3AMERAMERAttack errMara Stiglic+2.6
63-3AMERNWServe errAmerican+1.9
73-4NWAMERKillSalme Hollasset Deniz Dakak+1.9
84-4AMERNWKillMaya Stillwellset Ellie Stiernagle+1.9
94-5NWAMERKillElise Sterlingset Deniz Dakak+2.0
105-5AMERNWAttack errSophie Dufour+2.0
115-6NWAMERKillElise Sterlingset Deniz Dakak+2.0
126-6AMERNWKillCampbell Parisset Ellie Stiernagle+2.0
137-6NWNWAceNorthwestern+2.9
147-7NWAMERKillDeniz Dakakset Prinzez Zeck+2.1
158-7AMERNWAttack errSophie Dufour+2.2
168-8NWAMERKillCarly Sciborskiset Deniz Dakak+2.1
178-9AMERAMERKillSalme Hollasset Deniz Dakak+3.0
189-9AMERNW×3Serve errAmerican+2.2
1910-9NWNW×3KillMara Stiglicset Isabella Bullington+3.2
2011-9NWNW×3Attack errSalme Hollas+3.2
2111-10NWAMERKillCarly Sciborskiset Deniz Dakak+2.2
2212-10AMERNWKillMaya Stillwellset Ellie Stiernagle+2.4
2312-11NWAMER×4Serve errNorthwestern+2.2
2412-12AMERAMER×4BlockedMara Stiglicblk Elise Sterling, Salme Hollas+3.4
2512-13AMERAMER×4KillElise Sterlingset Deniz Dakak+3.5
2612-14AMERAMER×4KillSalme Hollasset Deniz Dakak+3.4
2713-14AMERNW×5Serve errAmerican+2.3
2814-14NWNW×5Attack errSalme Hollas+3.6
2915-14NWNW×5BlockedSalme Hollasblk Campbell Paris, Maya Stillwell+3.9
3016-14NWNW×5KillMaya Stillwell+3.9
3117-14NWNW×5KillMaya Stillwellset Ellie Stiernagle+3.6
3217-15NWAMERKillSalme Hollasset Deniz Dakak+2.2
3318-15AMERNWKillCampbell Parisset Ellie Stiernagle+2.7
3419-15NWNWKillIsabella Bullingtonset Drew Wright+3.1
3519-16NWAMERKillElise Sterlingset Deniz Dakak+1.6
3620-16AMERNWKillIsabella Bullingtonset Lauren Dignan+2.3
3720-17NWAMERBad setEllie Stiernagle+1.6
3821-17AMERNWKillIsabella Bullingtonset Drew Wright+2.3
3921-18NWAMERServe errNorthwestern+1.4
4022-18AMERNWKillHayley Schaafset Ellie Stiernagle+2.3
4122-19NWAMERServe errNorthwestern+1.3
4222-20AMERAMERBlockedMara Stiglicblk Elise Sterling, Carly Sciborski+2.9
4323-20AMERNWKillMara Stiglicset Ellie Stiernagle+3.4
4423-21NWAMERKillElise Sterlingset Deniz Dakak+1.9
4523-22AMERAMERKillElise Sterlingset Deniz Dakak+4.7
4624-22AMERNWKillCampbell Parisset Ellie Stiernagle+5.6
4725-22NWNWBlockedSalme Hollasblk Campbell Paris, Maya Stillwell+4.4
Set 2
11-0AMERNWServe errAmerican+1.9
21-1NWAMERKillCarly Sciborskiset Deniz Dakak+1.9
31-2AMERAMERAceAmericanaced Drew Wright+2.7
42-2AMERNWKillMara Stiglicset Ellie Stiernagle+1.9
53-2NWNWAceNorthwesternaced Alex Ioannou+2.8
63-3NWAMER×5KillPrinzez Zeckset Deniz Dakak+2.0
73-4AMERAMER×5KillElise Sterlingset Deniz Dakak+2.8
83-5AMERAMER×5KillSalme Hollasset Alex Ioannou+2.8
93-6AMERAMER×5BlockedMara Stiglicblk Elise Sterling, Salme Hollas+2.6
103-7AMERAMER×5KillElise Sterling+2.4
114-7AMERNWKillCampbell Parisset Ellie Stiernagle+1.6
125-7NWNWKillMaya Stillwellset Ellie Stiernagle+2.5
135-8NWAMERKillElise Sterlingset Deniz Dakak+2.0
146-8AMERNWKillIsabella Bullingtonset Ellie Stiernagle+1.8
156-9NWAMERKillSalme Hollasset Deniz Dakak+2.0
166-10AMERAMERKillSam McMillanset Salme Hollas+2.5
177-10AMERNWKillCampbell Parisset Ellie Stiernagle+1.6
188-10NWNWBlockedElise Sterlingblk Isabella Bullington+2.6
198-11NWAMERKillElise Sterlingset Deniz Dakak+2.1
209-11AMERNWKillHayley Schaafset Ellie Stiernagle+1.9
219-12NWAMERServe errNorthwestern+2.2
2210-12AMERNW×3KillHayley Schaafset Ellie Stiernagle+2.0
2311-12NWNW×3KillMara Stiglicset Gigi Navarrete+3.2
2412-12NWNW×3AceNorthwesternaced Sam McMillan+3.5
2512-13NWAMER×3KillPrinzez Zeckset Deniz Dakak+2.7
2612-14AMERAMER×3BlockedMara Stiglicblk Carly Sciborski, Prinzez Zeck+3.6
2712-15AMERAMER×3Attack errIsabella Bullington+3.3
2813-15AMERNWKillEllie Stiernagleset Isabella Bullington+2.1
2913-16NWAMERKillPrinzez Zeckset Deniz Dakak+2.5
3014-16AMERNWBlockedElise Sterlingblk Maya Stillwell+2.1
3115-16NWNWBlockedCarly Sciborskiblk Maya Stillwell, Isabella Bullington+3.6
3215-17NWAMERKillElise Sterlingset Deniz Dakak+3.0
3315-18AMERAMERAttack errMaya Stillwell+3.7
3416-18AMERNWKillCampbell Parisset Ellie Stiernagle+2.2
3516-19NWAMERKillElise Sterlingset Deniz Dakak+2.8
3617-19AMERNW×3KillIsabella Bullingtonset Ellie Stiernagle+2.2
3718-19NWNW×3Attack errSam McMillan+4.1
3819-19NWNW×3Attack errDeniz Dakak+5.1
3919-20NWAMERServe errNorthwestern+4.0
4020-20AMERNWAttack errSam McMillan+4.0
4120-21NWAMER×4Serve errNorthwestern+4.5
4220-22AMERAMER×4BlockedHayley Schaafblk Sam McMillan, Prinzez Zeck+6.0
4320-23AMERAMER×4KillPrinzez Zeckset Deniz Dakak+4.6
4420-24AMERAMER×4AceAmericanaced Isabella Bullington+2.5
4521-24AMERNWKillHayley Schaafset Ellie Stiernagle+0.5
4621-25NWAMERKillCarly Sciborskiset Deniz Dakak+1.3
Set 3
10-1NWAMERKillPrinzez Zeckset Deniz Dakak+2.4
21-1AMERNWKillIsabella Bullingtonset Ellie Stiernagle+2.4
31-2NWAMERKillCarly Sciborskiset Deniz Dakak+2.4
42-2AMERNWKillHayley Schaafset Ellie Stiernagle+2.5
52-3NWAMERKillElise Sterlingset Deniz Dakak+2.5
63-3AMERNWKillIsabella Bullingtonset Ellie Stiernagle+2.5
73-4NWAMERServe errNorthwestern+2.6
84-4AMERNWKillMara Stiglicset Ellie Stiernagle+2.6
94-5NWAMERServe errNorthwestern+2.6
105-5AMERNWServe errAmerican+2.6
115-6NWAMERAttack errMaya Stillwell+2.7
126-6AMERNWKillCampbell Parisset Kaitlyn Bodnar+2.7
137-6NWNWKillMaya Stillwellset Kaitlyn Bodnar+3.9
147-7NWAMERKillPrinzez Zeckset Deniz Dakak+2.8
158-7AMERNWKillIsabella Bullingtonset Ellie Stiernagle+2.9
168-8NWAMER×3Attack errHayley Schaaf+2.9
178-9AMERAMER×3BlockedIsabella Bullingtonblk Carly Sciborski+4.1
188-10AMERAMER×3Attack errCampbell Paris+4.0
199-10AMERNWKillCampbell Parisset Ellie Stiernagle+2.8
209-11NWAMERKillElise Sterlingset Deniz Dakak+3.0
2110-11AMERNWKillIsabella Bullingtonset Drew Wright+2.8
2210-12NWAMERKillSalme Hollasset Deniz Dakak+3.1
2311-12AMERNWServe errAmerican+2.9
2411-13NWAMERKillSam McMillanset Deniz Dakak+3.2
2512-13AMERNWKillMara Stiglicset Ellie Stiernagle+3.0
2613-13NWNWAttack errPrinzez Zeck+4.7
2713-14NWAMERKillSam McMillanset Deniz Dakak+3.5
2814-14AMERNWKillCampbell Parisset Ellie Stiernagle+3.5
2914-15NWAMERKillPrinzez Zeckset Deniz Dakak+3.7
3015-15AMERNWKillCampbell Parisset Ellie Stiernagle+3.7
3115-16NWAMERKillSalme Hollasset Deniz Dakak+3.9
3216-16AMERNW×3KillCampbell Parisset Ellie Stiernagle+3.9
3317-16NWNW×3KillIsabella Bullingtonset Ellie Stiernagle+5.8
3418-16NWNW×3Attack errElise Sterling+5.8
3518-17NWAMERKillCarly Sciborskiset Deniz Dakak+3.7
3619-17AMERNW×3KillIsabella Bullingtonset Drew Wright+4.5
3720-17NWNW×3KillMara Stiglic+5.5
3821-17NWNW×3AceNorthwesternaced Bella Marrero+4.2
3921-18NWAMERServe errNorthwestern+1.9
4022-18AMERNWKillHayley Schaafset Ellie Stiernagle+3.0
4122-19NWAMERServe errNorthwestern+1.7
4222-20AMERAMERAceAmericanaced Isabella Bullington+3.9
4323-20AMERNW×3KillMara Stiglicset Ellie Stiernagle+4.5
4424-20NWNW×3KillCampbell Parisset Drew Wright+3.5
4525-20NWNW×3BlockedPrinzez Zeckblk Maya Stillwell, Mara Stiglic+1.1
Set 4
11-0AMERNW×4KillMaya Stillwellset Ellie Stiernagle+2.6
22-0NWNW×4Attack errPrinzez Zeck+3.6
33-0NWNW×4Attack errSam McMillan+3.5
44-0NWNW×4KillHayley Schaafset Ellie Stiernagle+3.3
54-1NWAMERKillPrinzez Zeckset Deniz Dakak+2.1
64-2AMERAMERKillCarly Sciborskiset Deniz Dakak+3.3
75-2AMERNWKillCampbell Parisset Drew Wright+2.6
85-3NWAMER×3KillSalme Hollasset Carly Sciborski+2.4
95-4AMERAMER×3Attack errIsabella Bullington+3.6
105-5AMERAMER×3Attack errIsabella Bullington+3.8
116-5AMERNWServe errAmerican+2.9
127-5NWNWAttack errElise Sterling+4.0
137-6NWAMER×4KillElise Sterlingset Deniz Dakak+2.7
147-7AMERAMER×4Attack errHayley Schaaf+4.0
157-8AMERAMER×4Attack errMara Stiglic+4.1
167-9AMERAMER×4KillDeniz Dakakset Alex Ioannou+4.0
178-9AMERNWAttack errSalme Hollas+2.8
189-9NWNWKillIsabella Bullingtonset Ellie Stiernagle+4.2
199-10NWAMERServe errNorthwestern+3.2
209-11AMERAMERKillSam McMillanset Olivia Miller+4.3
2110-11AMERNW×3KillEllie Stiernagleset Gigi Navarrete+3.0
2211-11NWNW×3BlockedElise Sterlingblk Mara Stiglic, Maya Stillwell+4.5
2312-11NWNW×3BlockedSam McMillanblk Campbell Paris+4.8
2412-12NWAMERKillElise Sterlingset Deniz Dakak+3.4
2512-13AMERAMERAceAmericanaced Drew Wright+4.9
2613-13AMERNWServe errAmerican+3.5
2713-14NWAMER×4BlockedCampbell Parisblk Prinzez Zeck, Sam McMillan+3.7
2813-15AMERAMER×4Attack errMaya Stillwell+5.0
2913-16AMERAMER×4Attack errIsabella Bullington+4.6
3013-17AMERAMER×4AceAmericanaced Isabella Bullington+3.9
3114-17AMERNWKillCampbell Parisset Ellie Stiernagle+2.2
3215-17NWNWAttack errPrinzez Zeck+4.0
3315-18NWAMERBad setEllie Stiernagle+3.5
3415-19AMERAMERAttack errCampbell Paris+4.0
3516-19AMERNWKillIsabella Bullingtonset Ellie Stiernagle+2.1
3616-20NWAMER×3KillPrinzez Zeckset Deniz Dakak+2.9
3716-21AMERAMER×3KillCarly Sciborskiset Deniz Dakak+2.7
3816-22AMERAMER×3KillSalme Hollasset Alex Ioannou+1.5
3917-22AMERNWKillClara Schrammset Kaitlyn Bodnar+0.5
4017-23NWAMERKillCarly Sciborskiset Deniz Dakak+0.9
4118-23AMERNWKillMara Stiglicset Drew Wright+0.3
4218-24NWAMERKillElise Sterlingset Deniz Dakak+0.6
4319-24AMERNWKillMara Stiglicset Drew Wright+0.1
4419-25NWAMERKillElise Sterlingset Deniz Dakak+0.9
Set 5
11-0AMERNWBlockedSam McMillanblk Campbell Paris+6.4
21-1NWAMERKillPrinzez Zeckset Deniz Dakak+6.3
32-1AMERNWKillIsabella Bullingtonset Ellie Stiernagle+6.6
42-2NWAMERKillSalme Hollasset Deniz Dakak+6.5
53-2AMERNWKillIsabella Bullingtonset Ellie Stiernagle+6.9
63-3NWAMERKillSalme Hollasset Bella Marrero+6.8
74-3AMERNWKillMara Stiglicset Ellie Stiernagle+7.2
84-4NWAMER×3KillSalme Hollasset Deniz Dakak+7.0
94-5AMERAMER×3KillSam McMillanset Deniz Dakak+10.2
104-6AMERAMER×3KillElise Sterlingset Deniz Dakak+10.0
115-6AMERNWKillMaya Stillwellset Ellie Stiernagle+6.7
125-7NWAMERBlockedMaya Stillwellblk Deniz Dakak+7.6
136-7AMERNWKillMara Stiglicset Ellie Stiernagle+6.9
146-8NWAMERKillPrinzez Zeckset Deniz Dakak+8.0
157-8AMERNWServe errAmerican+7.2
167-9NWAMERKillPrinzez Zeckset Deniz Dakak+8.5
178-9AMERNWKillCampbell Parisset Ellie Stiernagle+7.6
189-9NWNWBlockedPrinzez Zeckblk Hayley Schaaf+12.9
199-10NWAMERAttack errIsabella Bullington+10.2
2010-10AMERNWServe errAmerican+10.1
2111-10NWNWKillMara Stiglic+16.0
2211-11NWAMER×4KillSalme Hollasset Alex Ioannou+11.2
2311-12AMERAMER×4AceAmericanaced Drew Wright+17.9
2411-13AMERAMER×4KillElise Sterlingset Deniz Dakak+17.0
2511-14AMERAMER×4AceAmericanaced Gigi Navarrete+11.9
2612-14AMERNWKillMara Stiglicset Ellie Stiernagle+3.3
2712-15NWAMERServe errNorthwestern+7.8

Score shown after each rally, Northwestern first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).