FinalSun, Sep 6, 2026

AwayCAA

3:0

HomePATRIOT

Stony Brook def. Navy 3–0

(25-16, 25-20, 25-22)

Set	1	2*	3	Sets
STONY	25	25	25	3
NAVY	16	20	22	0

* Set 2: the NCAA play-by-play has a gap or score correction here, so this set is left out of the rotation splits.

RallyIQ model

Win probability

NAVY above 50 · STONY below

Biggest swing: 1.8% to Stony Brook — set 3, STONY 23-21 NAVY. Kill by Ella Sanders (set by Rayanne Wheat). NAVY win probability 3% → 2%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

STONY 77.6%22.4% NAVY

Stony Brook wins

3-0

29.2%

3-1

29.5%

3-2

18.8%

Navy wins

3-0

3.8%

3-1

7.6%

3-2

11.1%

STONY break %: 47.8% vs this opp
NAVY break %: 42.0% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Ella SandersKill+1.8%
Kill by Ella Sanders (set by Rayanne Wheat)
Set 3 · STONY 23-21 NAVY · STONY 97% → 98%
02
Farrah EikeAttack error+1.7%
Attack error by Farrah Eike
Set 1 · STONY 1-0 NAVY · STONY 78% → 79%
03
Ella SandersKill+1.7%
Kill by Ella Sanders (set by Zayda Fuertez)
Set 3 · STONY 24-22 NAVY · STONY 97% → 99%
04
Ayanna Pierre LouisKill+1.7%
Kill by Ayanna Pierre Louis (set by Taryn Su)
Set 1 · STONY 4-2 NAVY · STONY 79% → 81%
05
Quinn AndersonKill+1.6%
Kill by Quinn Anderson (set by Zayda Fuertez)
Set 3 · STONY 22-21 NAVY · STONY 95% → 97%
06
Farrah EikeKill+1.6%
Kill by Farrah Eike (set by Isa Boyd)
Set 3 · STONY 20-20 NAVY · NAVY 3% → 5%
07
Caroline AdamsAttack error+1.5%
Attack error by Caroline Adams
Set 1 · STONY 5-2 NAVY · STONY 81% → 82%
08
Farrah EikeKill+1.5%
Kill by Farrah Eike (set by Isa Boyd)
Set 1 · STONY 2-2 NAVY · NAVY 21% → 22%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Stony Brookaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
15Ella SandersOH	3	18	4	40	.350	1	2	2	11	1	0	1	0.5	20.5
14Quinn AndersonOH	3	13	3	26	.385	0	0	0	2	1	0	2	1	14
5Damisi OsiboduMB	3	3	1	9	.222	1	0	0	0	0	1	5	3.5	6.5
7Ayanna Pierre LouisMB	3	3	2	9	.111	0	2	4	2	0	0	2	1	6
9Taryn SuS	3	0	0	0	–	20	3	3	3	0	0	0	0	3
2AaJaylah ZenoOH	3	1	5	13	-.308	0	0	0	2	0	0	3	1.5	2.5
10Mercedes MottonMB	3	2	1	8	.125	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	2.5
1Rayanne WheatS	3	1	0	2	.500	12	1	2	5	0	0	0	0	2
3Carey-Jean BlockL/DS	3	1	0	5	.200	0	0	0	6	0	0	0	0	1
18Zayda FuertezL/DS	3	0	0	1	.000	5	1	1	11	2	0	0	0	1
Team totals		42	16	113	.230	40	9	12	42	4	1	14	8	75

Navyhome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
4Farrah EikeOH	3	9	4	32	.156	0	0	1	5	1	0	2	1	10
24Siena MorganMB	3	5	1	9	.444	0	0	0	1	0	0	5	2.5	7.5
12Ellen GundlachMB	3	2	3	15	-.067	0	0	0	1	0	0	5	2.5	4.5
6Isa BoydS	3	0	0	0	–	13	2	1	11	0	0	0	0	2
22Grace BurgoyneMB	3	0	1	4	-.250	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	1	1
2Ally AlessioL/DS	2	0	0	0	–	0	1	0	2	2	0	0	0	1
9Caroline BuffumOH	3	6	4	20	.100	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	0	6
13Caroline AdamsS	3	0	1	2	-.500	9	0	0	4	0	0	0	0	0
21Amara ChambersL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	1	0	0	10	4	0	0	0	0
18Izzy PicardOH	2	1	2	6	-.167	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	1.5
17Avery MadduxMB	1	0	0	1	.000	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1.5	1.5
11Mackenzie PalumboOH	1	1	1	4	.000	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	1
16Lillian SchultheisS	1	0	0	0	–	0	1	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
3Hailey JacobusOH	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
1Madeline BildeauxMB	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		24	17	93	.075	23	4	5	39	9	1	16	9	58

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 9 STONY · NAVY 7

Set 1

25-16

Longest run 9 STONYNAVY 3

Set 2*

25-20

Longest run 3 STONYNAVY 4

Set 3

25-22

Longest run 4 STONYNAVY 7

Bars above the line = Navy leads, below = Stony Brook leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Stony Brook

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	36%4/11	67%8/12
2	80%4/5	43%3/7
3	40%4/10	69%9/13
4	67%4/6	33%2/6
5	75%3/4	40%2/5
6	100%2/2	71%5/7
All	55%21/38	58%29/50

Navy

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	33%4/12	0%0/2
2	57%4/7	64%7/11
3	31%4/13	20%1/5
4	67%4/6	60%6/10
5	60%3/5	33%2/6
6	29%2/7	25%1/4
All	42%21/50	45%17/38

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (2 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

133 rallies

Rally log

#	STONY-NAVY	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	STONY	STONY	Attack err	Farrah Eike		+1.7
2	1-1	STONY	NAVY	Kill	Farrah Eike	set Isa Boyd	+1.4
3	2-1	NAVY	STONY	Kill	Ella Sanders	set Taryn Su	+1.4
4	2-2	STONY	NAVY	Kill	Farrah Eike	set Isa Boyd	+1.5
5	3-2	NAVY	STONY×9	Kill	Quinn Anderson	set Taryn Su	+1.4
6	4-2	STONY	STONY×9	Kill	Ayanna Pierre Louis	set Taryn Su	+1.7
7	5-2	STONY	STONY×9	Attack err	Caroline Adams		+1.5
8	6-2	STONY	STONY×9	Attack err	Farrah Eike	blk Quinn Anderson, Ayanna Pierre Louis	+1.3
9	7-2	STONY	STONY×9	Attack err	Izzy Picard	blk Quinn Anderson, Ayanna Pierre Louis	+1.1
10	8-2	STONY	STONY×9	Kill	Quinn Anderson	set Taryn Su	+0.9
11	9-2	STONY	STONY×9	Ace	STONY server	aced Amara Chambers	+0.7
12	10-2	STONY	STONY×9	Attack err	Izzy Picard		+0.5
13	11-2	STONY	STONY×9	Kill	AaJaylah Zeno	set Taryn Su	+0.4
14	11-3	STONY	NAVY×3	Kill	Farrah Eike	set Caroline Adams	+0.2
15	11-4	NAVY	NAVY×3	Attack err	AaJaylah Zeno		+0.4
16	11-5	NAVY	NAVY×3	Kill	Caroline Buffum	set Caroline Adams	+0.6
17	12-5	NAVY	STONY	Serve err	NAVY server		+0.6
18	12-6	STONY	NAVY×3	Kill	Caroline Buffum	set Caroline Adams	+0.5
19	12-7	NAVY	NAVY×3	Attack err	Quinn Anderson	blk Izzy Picard, Siena Morgan	+0.8
20	12-8	NAVY	NAVY×3	Ace	NAVY server	aced Quinn Anderson	+1.1
21	13-8	NAVY	STONY	Serve err	NAVY server		+1.0
22	14-8	STONY	STONY	Kill	Ella Sanders	set Zayda Fuertez	+0.9
23	14-9	STONY	NAVY	Kill	Siena Morgan	set Caroline Adams	+0.6
24	14-10	NAVY	NAVY	Attack err	Ella Sanders	blk Ellen Gundlach, Siena Morgan	+1.1
25	15-10	NAVY	STONY	Kill	Ella Sanders	set Mercedes Motton	+1.0
26	16-10	STONY	STONY	Ace	STONY server	aced Amara Chambers	+0.9
27	16-11	STONY	NAVY	Serve err	STONY server		+0.6
28	17-11	NAVY	STONY×4	Kill	Ella Sanders	set Rayanne Wheat	+0.7
29	18-11	STONY	STONY×4	Kill	Damisi Osibodu	set Taryn Su	+0.6
30	19-11	STONY	STONY×4	Kill	Ella Sanders	set Taryn Su	+0.4
31	20-11	STONY	STONY×4	Kill	Ella Sanders	set Taryn Su	+0.2
32	20-12	STONY	NAVY	Serve err	STONY server		+0.1
33	20-13	NAVY	NAVY	Attack err	AaJaylah Zeno	blk Ellen Gundlach, Grace Burgoyne	+0.2
34	21-13	NAVY	STONY	Kill	Ella Sanders	set Taryn Su	+0.2
35	21-14	STONY	NAVY	Attack err	AaJaylah Zeno		+0.1
36	22-14	NAVY	STONY	Kill	Ella Sanders	set Taryn Su	+0.2
37	22-15	STONY	NAVY	Attack err	AaJaylah Zeno	blk Farrah Eike, Grace Burgoyne	+0.1
38	23-15	NAVY	STONY	Bad set	Caroline Adams		+0.1
39	24-15	STONY	STONY	Kill	Ayanna Pierre Louis	set Rayanne Wheat	+0.0
40	24-16	STONY	NAVY	Attack err	Quinn Anderson		+0.0
41	25-16	NAVY	STONY	Serve err	NAVY server		+0.0
Set 2
1	1-0	NAVY	STONY×3	Attack err	Caroline Buffum	blk AaJaylah Zeno, Damisi Osibodu	+1.0
2	2-0	STONY	STONY×3	Ace	STONY server	aced Amara Chambers	+1.2
3	3-0	STONY	STONY×3	Kill	Damisi Osibodu	set Taryn Su	+1.1
4	3-1	STONY	NAVY	Kill	Ellen Gundlach	set Isa Boyd	+0.9
5	4-1	NAVY	STONY×3	Kill	Quinn Anderson	set Taryn Su	+0.9
6	5-1	STONY	STONY×3	Kill	Quinn Anderson	set Taryn Su	+1.0
7	6-1	STONY	STONY×3	Attack err	Farrah Eike		+0.9
8	6-2	STONY	NAVY	Serve err	STONY server		+0.6
9	7-2	NAVY	STONY×3	Feed gap	Placeholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known.		+0.7
10	8-2	STONY	STONY×3	Attack err	Ellen Gundlach		+0.7
11	9-2	STONY	STONY×3	Attack err	Ellen Gundlach		+0.6
12	9-3	STONY	NAVY	Serve err	STONY server		+0.4
13	9-4	NAVY	NAVY	Attack err	Mercedes Motton		+0.6
14	10-4	NAVY	STONY	Kill	Quinn Anderson	set Zayda Fuertez	+0.6
15	10-5	STONY	NAVY	Attack err	Ayanna Pierre Louis		+0.5
16	11-5	NAVY	STONY	Kill	Ella Sanders	set Rayanne Wheat	+0.6
17	12-5	STONY	STONY	Attack err	Caroline Buffum	blk Damisi Osibodu, Mercedes Motton	+0.6
18	12-6	STONY	NAVY	Serve err	STONY server		+0.4
19	12-7	NAVY	NAVY	Attack err	Ella Sanders		+0.6
20	13-7	NAVY	STONY	Kill	Mercedes Motton	set Damisi Osibodu	+0.6
21	14-7	STONY	STONY	Attack err	Siena Morgan	blk Damisi Osibodu	+0.5
22	14-8	STONY	NAVY×3	Kill	Caroline Buffum	set Caroline Adams	+0.3
23	14-9	NAVY	NAVY×3	Kill	Caroline Buffum	set Isa Boyd	+0.6
24	14-10	NAVY	NAVY×3	Bad set	Taryn Su		+0.8
25	15-10	NAVY	STONY	Attack err	Caroline Buffum		+0.8
26	15-11	STONY	NAVY	Kill	Siena Morgan	set Isa Boyd	+0.7
27	16-11	NAVY	STONY	Serve err	NAVY server		+0.8
28	16-12	STONY	NAVY	Kill	Siena Morgan	set Isa Boyd	+0.7
29	17-12	NAVY	STONY×3	Kill	Ayanna Pierre Louis	set Taryn Su	+0.8
30	18-12	STONY	STONY×3	Attack err	Mackenzie Palumbo		+0.7
31	19-12	STONY	STONY×3	Ace	STONY server	aced Amara Chambers	+0.4
32	19-13	STONY	NAVY	Kill	Farrah Eike	set Isa Boyd	+0.2
33	19-14	NAVY	NAVY	Kill	Izzy Picard	set Amara Chambers	+0.5
34	20-14	NAVY	STONY	Kill	Rayanne Wheat	set Ella Sanders	+0.5
35	21-14	STONY	STONY	Kill	Ella Sanders	set Rayanne Wheat	+0.4
36	21-15	STONY	NAVY	Kill	Farrah Eike	set Caroline Adams	+0.2
37	22-15	NAVY	STONY	Kill	Carey-Jean Block	set Rayanne Wheat	+0.2
38	22-16	STONY	NAVY	Serve err	STONY server		+0.1
39	23-16	NAVY	STONY	Kill	Ella Sanders	set Rayanne Wheat	+0.2
40	24-16	STONY	STONY	Kill	Ella Sanders	set Taryn Su	+0.1
41	24-17	STONY	NAVY×4	Serve err	STONY server		+0.0
42	24-18	NAVY	NAVY×4	Kill	Mackenzie Palumbo	set Taryn Su	+0.0
43	24-19	NAVY	NAVY×4	Ace	NAVY server	aced Zayda Fuertez	+0.1
44	24-20	NAVY	NAVY×4	Kill	Caroline Buffum	set Isa Boyd	+0.2
45	25-20	NAVY	STONY	Bad set	Caroline Buffum		+0.3
Set 3
1	1-0	STONY	STONY×3	Attack err	Caroline Buffum	blk Damisi Osibodu, AaJaylah Zeno	+0.7
2	2-0	STONY	STONY×3	Ace	STONY server	aced Ally Alessio	+0.6
3	3-0	STONY	STONY×3	Ace	STONY server	aced Ally Alessio	+0.6
4	3-1	STONY	NAVY	Kill	Siena Morgan	set Caroline Adams	+0.5
5	4-1	NAVY	STONY	Serve err	NAVY server		+0.5
6	4-2	STONY	NAVY	Serve err	STONY server		+0.5
7	4-3	NAVY	NAVY	Attack err	Quinn Anderson	blk Siena Morgan, Ellen Gundlach	+0.7
8	5-3	NAVY	STONY	Attack err	Farrah Eike	blk Damisi Osibodu, AaJaylah Zeno	+0.5
9	5-4	STONY	NAVY×4	Bad set	Zayda Fuertez		+0.6
10	5-5	NAVY	NAVY×4	Attack err	Ayanna Pierre Louis	blk Avery Maddux	+0.8
11	5-6	NAVY	NAVY×4	Ace	NAVY server	aced Ella Sanders	+0.9
12	5-7	NAVY	NAVY×4	Attack err	AaJaylah Zeno	blk Avery Maddux, Farrah Eike	+0.9
13	6-7	NAVY	STONY	Kill	Quinn Anderson	set Taryn Su	+0.7
14	7-7	STONY	STONY	Kill	Quinn Anderson		+0.8
15	7-8	STONY	NAVY	Kill	Ellen Gundlach	set Isa Boyd	+0.7
16	8-8	NAVY	STONY	Kill	Quinn Anderson	set Rayanne Wheat	+0.7
17	8-9	STONY	NAVY	Kill	Farrah Eike	set Caroline Adams	+0.8
18	9-9	NAVY	STONY×4	Kill	Ella Sanders	set Rayanne Wheat	+0.7
19	10-9	STONY	STONY×4	Kill	Mercedes Motton	set Rayanne Wheat	+0.9
20	11-9	STONY	STONY×4	Attack err	Grace Burgoyne	blk Damisi Osibodu, Ella Sanders	+0.8
21	12-9	STONY	STONY×4	Kill	Ella Sanders	set Rayanne Wheat	+0.7
22	12-10	STONY	NAVY	Serve err	STONY server		+0.6
23	13-10	NAVY	STONY	Kill	Ella Sanders	set Rayanne Wheat	+0.6
24	14-10	STONY	STONY	Ace	STONY server	aced Farrah Eike	+0.6
25	14-11	STONY	NAVY×7	Serve err	STONY server		+0.5
26	14-12	NAVY	NAVY×7	Ace	NAVY server	aced Zayda Fuertez	+0.7
27	14-13	NAVY	NAVY×7	Kill	Caroline Buffum	set Isa Boyd	+0.9
28	14-14	NAVY	NAVY×7	Attack err	Ella Sanders	blk Siena Morgan, Ellen Gundlach	+1.1
29	14-15	NAVY	NAVY×7	Kill	Siena Morgan	set Isa Boyd	+1.2
30	14-16	NAVY	NAVY×7	Attack err	Damisi Osibodu		+1.3
31	14-17	NAVY	NAVY×7	Attack err	Ella Sanders	blk Ellen Gundlach, Siena Morgan	+1.3
32	15-17	NAVY	STONY×4	Kill	Ella Sanders	set Carey-Jean Block	+0.9
33	16-17	STONY	STONY×4	Attack err	Ellen Gundlach		+1.2
34	17-17	STONY	STONY×4	Kill	Quinn Anderson	set Taryn Su	+1.3
35	18-17	STONY	STONY×4	Ace	STONY server	aced Team	+1.3
36	18-18	STONY	NAVY	Serve err	STONY server		+1.1
37	19-18	NAVY	STONY	Kill	Damisi Osibodu	set Taryn Su	+1.1
38	20-18	STONY	STONY	Kill	Quinn Anderson	set Zayda Fuertez	+1.3
39	20-19	STONY	NAVY	Kill	Farrah Eike	set Isa Boyd	+1.0
40	20-20	NAVY	NAVY	Kill	Farrah Eike	set Isa Boyd	+1.6
41	21-20	NAVY	STONY	Kill	Quinn Anderson	set Taryn Su	+1.4
42	21-21	STONY	NAVY	Serve err	STONY server		+1.4
43	22-21	NAVY	STONY	Kill	Quinn Anderson	set Zayda Fuertez	+1.6
44	23-21	STONY	STONY	Kill	Ella Sanders	set Rayanne Wheat	+1.8
45	23-22	STONY	NAVY	Kill	Farrah Eike	set Caroline Adams	+1.1
46	24-22	NAVY	STONY	Kill	Ella Sanders	set Zayda Fuertez	+1.7
47	25-22	STONY	STONY	Ace	STONY server	aced Team	+1.1

Score shown after each rally, Stony Brook first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.