FinalFri, Sep 11, 2026

AwayCAA

3:0

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Stony Brook def. Rider 3–0

(25-16, 25-22, 25-12)

Set	1	2	3*	Sets
STONY	25	25	25	3
RIDER	16	22	12	0

* Set 3: the NCAA play-by-play has a gap or score correction here, so this set is left out of the rotation splits.

RallyIQ model

Win probability

RIDER above 50 · STONY below

Biggest swing: 1.0% to Rider — set 2, STONY 15-17 RIDER. Attack error by Ella Sanders. RIDER win probability 4% → 5%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

STONY 95.6%4.4% RIDER

Stony Brook wins

3-0

57.2%

3-1

29.2%

3-2

9.2%

Rider wins

3-0

0.5%

3-1

1.2%

3-2

2.7%

STONY break %: 50.9% vs this opp
RIDER break %: 37.8% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Ella SandersAttack error+1.0%
Attack error by Ella Sanders
Set 2 · STONY 15-17 RIDER · RIDER 4% → 5%
02
Damisi OsiboduKill+0.9%
Kill by Damisi Osibodu (set by Taryn Su)
Set 2 · STONY 24-22 RIDER · STONY 98% → 99%
03
Ella SandersKill+0.8%
Kill by Ella Sanders (set by Rayanne Wheat)
Set 2 · STONY 19-18 RIDER · STONY 97% → 98%
04
Mercedes MottonKill+0.8%
Kill by Mercedes Motton (set by Rayanne Wheat)
Set 2 · STONY 17-17 RIDER · STONY 96% → 97%
05
Makenna MasonKill+0.8%
Kill by Makenna Mason (set by Zayda Fuertez)
Set 2 · STONY 17-18 RIDER · RIDER 3% → 4%
06
Aubrey BakerKill+0.8%
Kill by Aubrey Baker (set by Makenna Mason)
Set 2 · STONY 23-22 RIDER · RIDER 1% → 2%
07
Damisi OsiboduAttack error+0.7%
Attack error by Damisi Osibodu
Set 2 · STONY 13-14 RIDER · RIDER 3% → 3%
08
Mercedes MottonKill+0.7%
Kill by Mercedes Motton (set by Rayanne Wheat)
Set 2 · STONY 20-18 RIDER · STONY 98% → 98%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Stony Brookaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
7Ayanna Pierre LouisMB	3	8	0	11	.727	1	1	1	3	0	0	1	0.5	9.5
15Ella SandersOH	3	7	2	21	.238	0	1	0	7	1	0	1	0.5	8.5
5Damisi OsiboduMB	3	5	3	11	.182	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	1.5	6.5
10Mercedes MottonMB	3	4	0	11	.364	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.5	4.5
3Carey-Jean BlockL/DS	3	2	2	6	.000	0	2	0	8	0	0	0	0	4
1Rayanne WheatS	3	0	0	0	–	18	2	0	5	0	0	0	0	2
14Quinn AndersonOH	3	7	1	15	.400	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	7
6Leimaile LasikeMB	3	4	1	9	.333	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	2	6
18Zayda FuertezL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	1	4	0	13	1	0	0	0	4
9Taryn SuS	3	0	0	0	–	16	1	3	6	0	0	0	0	1
4Hanna BerkefeltOH	1	1	1	6	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team totals		38	10	90	.311	36	11	4	43	3	1	8	5	75

Riderhome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
7Rylah RobinsonOH	3	10	4	26	.231	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	10
6Molly RohdeMB	3	4	1	11	.273	0	1	1	0	0	2	1	6
9Makenna MasonS	3	2	0	3	.667	20	0	0	13	0	0	0	2
16Maisie NawrockiOH	2	4	4	15	.000	1	0	1	4	3	0	0	4
22Anja KellyOPP	2	2	4	13	-.154	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.5	2.5
3Annabell ZachritzMB	1	0	0	2	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
23Tori BonacciMB	3	5	1	9	.444	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	5
17Simone LangfordL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	5	1	1	7	2	0	0	1
4Olivia DeSaroL/DS	3	0	1	1	-1.000	0	0	2	4	0	0	0	0
0Aubrey BakerOH	2	2	0	7	.286	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	2
13Tyler AdamsL/DS	2	0	0	1	.000	1	0	1	1	2	0	0	0
10Carly AllenL/DS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	3	3	0	0	0
1Madison DaleyOPP	1	2	2	6	.000	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	2.5
19Cecilia DeCaroOH	1	2	0	4	.500	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	2
14Katie CookS	1	0	0	1	.000	4	1	1	1	0	0	0	1
Team totals		33	17	99	.162	31	3	9	39	11	4	2	50

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 9 STONY · RIDER 4

Set 1

25-16

Longest run 7 STONYRIDER 3

Set 2

25-22

Longest run 4 STONYRIDER 3

Set 3*

25-12

Longest run 9 STONYRIDER 4

Bars above the line = Rider leads, below = Stony Brook leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Stony Brook

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	63%5/8	60%6/10
2	83%5/6	29%2/7
3	56%5/9	38%3/8
4	100%4/4	64%7/11
5	50%4/8	33%2/6
6	75%3/4	57%4/7
All	67%26/39	49%24/49

Rider

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	63%5/8	43%3/7
2	56%5/9	0%0/5
3	67%4/6	44%4/9
4	40%4/10	20%1/5
5	40%4/10	20%1/5
6	50%3/6	50%4/8
All	51%25/49	33%13/39

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (2 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

125 rallies

Rally log

#	STONY-RIDER	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	STONY	STONY×3	Attack err	Maisie Nawrocki		+0.5
2	2-0	STONY	STONY×3	Ace	STONY server	aced Rylah Robinson	+0.4
3	3-0	STONY	STONY×3	Kill	Ayanna Pierre Louis	set Rayanne Wheat	+0.4
4	3-1	STONY	RIDER	Kill	Anja Kelly	set Makenna Mason	+0.3
5	4-1	RIDER	STONY	Serve err	RIDER server		+0.3
6	5-1	STONY	STONY	Kill	Carey-Jean Block	set Rayanne Wheat	+0.3
7	5-2	STONY	RIDER	Kill	Molly Rohde	set Makenna Mason	+0.2
8	6-2	RIDER	STONY	Kill	Ella Sanders	set Rayanne Wheat	+0.2
9	7-2	STONY	STONY	Attack err	Maisie Nawrocki	blk Damisi Osibodu, Leimaile Lasike	+0.2
10	7-3	STONY	RIDER	Kill	Maisie Nawrocki	set Makenna Mason	+0.2
11	7-4	RIDER	RIDER	Ace	RIDER server	aced Zayda Fuertez	+0.3
12	8-4	RIDER	STONY×7	Kill	Damisi Osibodu	set Taryn Su	+0.3
13	9-4	STONY	STONY×7	Attack err	Maisie Nawrocki	blk Damisi Osibodu, Leimaile Lasike	+0.3
14	10-4	STONY	STONY×7	Kill	Quinn Anderson	set Taryn Su	+0.2
15	11-4	STONY	STONY×7	Kill	Ella Sanders	set Taryn Su	+0.1
16	12-4	STONY	STONY×7	Kill	Leimaile Lasike	set Taryn Su	+0.1
17	13-4	STONY	STONY×7	Kill	Damisi Osibodu	set Taryn Su	+0.1
18	14-4	STONY	STONY×7	Attack err	Maisie Nawrocki		+0.0
19	14-5	STONY	RIDER	Kill	Cecilia DeCaro	set Katie Cook	+0.0
20	15-5	RIDER	STONY	Serve err	RIDER server		+0.0
21	16-5	STONY	STONY	Kill	Quinn Anderson	set Zayda Fuertez	+0.0
22	16-6	STONY	RIDER	Kill	Tori Bonacci	set Katie Cook	+0.0
23	16-7	RIDER	RIDER	Ace	RIDER server	aced Ella Sanders	+0.0
24	17-7	RIDER	STONY	Kill	Ayanna Pierre Louis	set Taryn Su	+0.0
25	17-8	STONY	RIDER	Attack err	Ella Sanders		+0.0
26	18-8	RIDER	STONY	Kill	Mercedes Motton	set Rayanne Wheat	+0.0
27	18-9	STONY	RIDER	Kill	Molly Rohde	set Makenna Mason	+0.0
28	19-9	RIDER	STONY	Kill	Ella Sanders	set Rayanne Wheat	+0.0
29	20-9	STONY	STONY	Ace	STONY server	aced Simone Langford	+0.0
30	20-10	STONY	RIDER	Kill	Cecilia DeCaro	set Makenna Mason	+0.0
31	20-11	RIDER	RIDER	Attack err	Damisi Osibodu		+0.0
32	21-11	RIDER	STONY	Kill	Ella Sanders	set Rayanne Wheat	+0.0
33	21-12	STONY	RIDER	Kill	Anja Kelly	set Makenna Mason	+0.0
34	22-12	RIDER	STONY	Serve err	RIDER server		+0.0
35	22-13	STONY	RIDER	Kill	Tori Bonacci	set Katie Cook	+0.0
36	23-13	RIDER	STONY	Attack err	Rylah Robinson		+0.0
37	24-13	STONY	STONY	Ace	STONY server	aced Simone Langford	+0.0
38	24-14	STONY	RIDER×3	Kill	Rylah Robinson	set Katie Cook	+0.0
39	24-15	RIDER	RIDER×3	Kill	Tori Bonacci	set Simone Langford	+0.0
40	24-16	RIDER	RIDER×3	Attack err	Quinn Anderson		+0.0
41	25-16	RIDER	STONY	Kill	Ayanna Pierre Louis	set Taryn Su	+0.0
Set 2
1	0-1	RIDER	RIDER×3	Attack err	Carey-Jean Block	blk Molly Rohde, Anja Kelly	+0.4
2	0-2	RIDER	RIDER×3	Kill	Rylah Robinson	set Makenna Mason	+0.5
3	0-3	RIDER	RIDER×3	Attack err	Carey-Jean Block		+0.5
4	1-3	RIDER	STONY	Kill	Carey-Jean Block	set Rayanne Wheat	+0.4
5	1-4	STONY	RIDER	Kill	Molly Rohde	set Makenna Mason	+0.5
6	2-4	RIDER	STONY	Serve err	RIDER server		+0.4
7	2-5	STONY	RIDER	Serve err	STONY server		+0.5
8	2-6	RIDER	RIDER	Ace	RIDER server	aced Team	+0.6
9	3-6	RIDER	STONY	Serve err	RIDER server		+0.4
10	3-7	STONY	RIDER	Kill	Maisie Nawrocki	set Simone Langford	+0.5
11	4-7	RIDER	STONY	Kill	Damisi Osibodu	set Taryn Su	+0.4
12	4-8	STONY	RIDER	Kill	Maisie Nawrocki	set Makenna Mason	+0.6
13	5-8	RIDER	STONY×4	Serve err	RIDER server		+0.4
14	6-8	STONY	STONY×4	Ace	STONY server	aced Maisie Nawrocki	+0.6
15	7-8	STONY	STONY×4	Ace	STONY server	aced Maisie Nawrocki	+0.5
16	8-8	STONY	STONY×4	Kill	Quinn Anderson	set Rayanne Wheat	+0.5
17	8-9	STONY	RIDER	Kill	Rylah Robinson	set Simone Langford	+0.5
18	8-10	RIDER	RIDER	Kill	Rylah Robinson	set Tyler Adams	+0.7
19	9-10	RIDER	STONY	Serve err	RIDER server		+0.4
20	10-10	STONY	STONY	Kill	Ayanna Pierre Louis	set Rayanne Wheat	+0.5
21	10-11	STONY	RIDER	Kill	Rylah Robinson	set Makenna Mason	+0.5
22	11-11	RIDER	STONY	Attack err	Anja Kelly		+0.4
23	11-12	STONY	RIDER	Kill	Rylah Robinson	set Maisie Nawrocki	+0.5
24	12-12	RIDER	STONY	Kill	Damisi Osibodu		+0.5
25	13-12	STONY	STONY	Attack err	Anja Kelly		+0.5
26	13-13	STONY	RIDER	Serve err	STONY server		+0.5
27	13-14	RIDER	RIDER	Attack err	Damisi Osibodu		+0.7
28	14-14	RIDER	STONY	Kill	Ella Sanders	set Taryn Su	+0.5
29	14-15	STONY	RIDER	Kill	Tori Bonacci	set Makenna Mason	+0.6
30	15-15	RIDER	STONY	Serve err	RIDER server		+0.6
31	15-16	STONY	RIDER	Kill	Maisie Nawrocki	set Makenna Mason	+0.7
32	15-17	RIDER	RIDER	Attack err	Ella Sanders		+1.0
33	16-17	RIDER	STONY	Kill	Leimaile Lasike	set Ayanna Pierre Louis	+0.6
34	17-17	STONY	STONY	Kill	Mercedes Motton	set Rayanne Wheat	+0.8
35	17-18	STONY	RIDER	Kill	Makenna Mason	set Zayda Fuertez	+0.8
36	18-18	RIDER	STONY×3	Kill	Quinn Anderson	set Rayanne Wheat	+0.7
37	19-18	STONY	STONY×3	Kill	Ella Sanders	set Rayanne Wheat	+0.8
38	20-18	STONY	STONY×3	Kill	Mercedes Motton	set Rayanne Wheat	+0.7
39	20-19	STONY	RIDER	Kill	Rylah Robinson	set Makenna Mason	+0.6
40	21-19	RIDER	STONY	Attack err	Anja Kelly		+0.6
41	21-20	STONY	RIDER	Serve err	STONY server		+0.6
42	22-20	RIDER	STONY	Kill	Ella Sanders	set Rayanne Wheat	+0.7
43	23-20	STONY	STONY	Ace	STONY server	aced Maisie Nawrocki	+0.6
44	23-21	STONY	RIDER	Serve err	STONY server		+0.3
45	23-22	RIDER	RIDER	Kill	Aubrey Baker	set Makenna Mason	+0.8
46	24-22	RIDER	STONY	Kill	Damisi Osibodu	set Taryn Su	+0.9
47	25-22	STONY	STONY	Attack err	Anja Kelly		+0.5
Set 3
1	1-0	STONY	STONY	Attack err	Molly Rohde		+0.1
2	1-1	STONY	RIDER	Kill	Rylah Robinson	set Makenna Mason	+0.1
3	2-1	RIDER	STONY	Kill	Ayanna Pierre Louis	set Rayanne Wheat	+0.1
4	3-1	STONY	STONY	Attack err	Madison Daley	blk Damisi Osibodu, Ella Sanders	+0.1
5	3-2	STONY	RIDER	Kill	Aubrey Baker	set Makenna Mason	+0.1
6	4-2	RIDER	STONY	Kill	Mercedes Motton	set Rayanne Wheat	+0.1
7	4-3	STONY	RIDER	Kill	Tori Bonacci	set Makenna Mason	+0.1
8	5-3	RIDER	STONY×5	Kill	Leimaile Lasike	set Taryn Su	+0.1
9	6-3	STONY	STONY×5	Attack err	Tori Bonacci		+0.1
10	7-3	STONY	STONY×5	Ace	STONY server	aced Tyler Adams	+0.1
11	8-3	STONY	STONY×5	Attack err	Olivia DeSaro		+0.1
12	9-3	STONY	STONY×5	Kill	Quinn Anderson	set Taryn Su	+0.1
13	9-4	STONY	RIDER	Kill	Makenna Mason	set Makenna Mason	+0.0
14	9-5	RIDER	RIDER	Attack err	Damisi Osibodu		+0.1
15	10-5	RIDER	STONY×9	Serve err	RIDER server		+0.1
16	11-5	STONY	STONY×9	Feed gap	Placeholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known.		+0.1
17	12-5	STONY	STONY×9	Kill	Quinn Anderson	set Taryn Su	+0.0
18	13-5	STONY	STONY×9	Attack err	Rylah Robinson	blk Leimaile Lasike	+0.0
19	14-5	STONY	STONY×9	Kill	Ayanna Pierre Louis	set Taryn Su	+0.0
20	15-5	STONY	STONY×9	Ace	STONY server	aced Tyler Adams	+0.0
21	16-5	STONY	STONY×9	Ace	STONY server	aced Carly Allen	+0.0
22	17-5	STONY	STONY×9	Attack err	Rylah Robinson		+0.0
23	18-5	STONY	STONY×9	Ace	STONY server	aced Carly Allen	+0.0
24	18-6	STONY	RIDER	Attack err	Leimaile Lasike		+0.0
25	18-7	RIDER	RIDER	Kill	Rylah Robinson	set Simone Langford	+0.0
26	19-7	RIDER	STONY	Kill	Quinn Anderson	set Taryn Su	+0.0
27	19-8	STONY	RIDER	Kill	Rylah Robinson	set Makenna Mason	+0.0
28	20-8	RIDER	STONY×5	Kill	Ayanna Pierre Louis	set Rayanne Wheat	+0.0
29	21-8	STONY	STONY×5	Ace	STONY server	aced Carly Allen	+0.0
30	22-8	STONY	STONY×5	Attack err	Rylah Robinson	blk Ayanna Pierre Louis, Mercedes Motton	+0.0
31	23-8	STONY	STONY×5	Kill	Hanna Berkefelt	set Rayanne Wheat	+0.0
32	24-8	STONY	STONY×5	Attack err	Madison Daley		+0.0
33	24-9	STONY	RIDER×4	Kill	Madison Daley	set Makenna Mason	+0.0
34	24-10	RIDER	RIDER×4	Kill	Madison Daley	set Simone Langford	+0.0
35	24-11	RIDER	RIDER×4	Kill	Molly Rohde	set Makenna Mason	+0.0
36	24-12	RIDER	RIDER×4	Attack err	Hanna Berkefelt	blk Madison Daley, Molly Rohde	+0.0
37	25-12	RIDER	STONY	Kill	Ayanna Pierre Louis	set Rayanne Wheat	+0.0

Score shown after each rally, Stony Brook first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.