FinalFri, Sep 18, 2026

AwayCAA

3:0

HomeCAA

Stony Brook def. William & Mary 3–0

(25-22, 25-19, 25-19)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
STONY	25	25	25	3
WM&MRY	22	19	19	0

RallyIQ model

Win probability

WM&MRY above 50 · STONY below

Biggest swing: 4.9% to Stony Brook — set 1, STONY 21-20 WM&MRY. Kill by Ella Sanders (set by Ayanna Pierre Louis). WM&MRY win probability 32% → 27%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

STONY 70.3%29.7% WM&MRY

Stony Brook wins

3-0

23.5%

3-1

27.0%

3-2

19.8%

William & Mary wins

3-0

5.6%

3-1

10.4%

3-2

13.7%

STONY break %: 46.9% vs this opp
WM&MRY break %: 42.8% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Ella SandersKill+4.9%
Kill by Ella Sanders (set by Ayanna Pierre Louis)
Set 1 · STONY 21-20 WM&MRY · STONY 68% → 73%
02
Katherine ArnasonAttack error+4.5%
Attack error by Katherine Arnason
Set 1 · STONY 22-20 WM&MRY · STONY 73% → 77%
03
Teagan PociusKill+4.3%
Kill by Teagan Pocius (set by Cate Hatfield)
Set 1 · STONY 18-19 WM&MRY · WM&MRY 31% → 35%
04
WM&MRY serverService error+4.1%
William & Mary service error
Set 1 · STONY 23-21 WM&MRY · STONY 74% → 78%
05
Teagan PociusKill+3.9%
Kill by Teagan Pocius (set by Cate Hatfield)
Set 1 · STONY 19-20 WM&MRY · WM&MRY 32% → 36%
06
Damisi OsiboduAttack error+3.8%
Damisi Osibodu stuffed by Teagan Pocius
Set 1 · STONY 18-18 WM&MRY · WM&MRY 27% → 31%
07
Ella SandersKill+3.7%
Kill by Ella Sanders (set by Damisi Osibodu)
Set 1 · STONY 20-20 WM&MRY · STONY 64% → 68%
08
Cate HatfieldBad set+3.6%
Bad set by Cate Hatfield
Set 1 · STONY 24-21 WM&MRY · STONY 78% → 82%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Stony Brookaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
15Ella SandersOH	3	18	6	39	.308	0	0	1	13	0	1	4	3	21
14Quinn AndersonOH	3	8	4	33	.121	0	0	0	2	1	2	0	2	10
5Damisi OsiboduMB	3	4	3	12	.083	1	0	0	0	0	2	5	4.5	8.5
7Ayanna Pierre LouisMB	3	2	2	9	.000	2	1	2	1	0	0	4	2	5
10Mercedes MottonMB	3	0	2	11	-.182	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	1	1
1Rayanne WheatS	3	0	0	1	.000	18	0	1	10	0	0	0	0	0
6Leimaile LasikeMB	3	3	0	8	.375	0	0	0	1	0	0	3	1.5	4.5
3Carey-Jean BlockL/DS	3	2	1	4	.250	0	0	1	6	1	0	0	0	2
9Taryn SuS	3	1	0	1	1.000	11	0	0	7	0	0	0	0	1
18Zayda FuertezL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	3	0	1	12	0	0	0	0	0
12Avari AmstutzOH	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		38	18	118	.169	35	1	6	53	2	5	18	14	75

William & Maryhome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
22Olivia WestfortMB	3	10	1	24	.375	0	0	0	4	0	1	2	2	12
12Teagan PociusMB	3	6	2	15	.267	0	0	0	1	0	3	4	5	11
23Katherine ArnasonOH	3	4	8	24	-.167	0	1	0	11	0	0	1	0.5	5.5
16Emily McKeeOH	3	3	2	15	.067	0	1	0	17	0	0	1	0.5	4.5
4Cate HatfieldS	3	1	2	6	-.167	28	0	0	4	0	0	2	1	2
9Ava CrabtreeOH	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	3	3	1	0	0	0	0
10Audrey BrckaOH	3	6	10	31	-.129	0	0	0	4	0	0	1	0.5	6.5
11Avery HorejsiL/DS	3	0	1	1	-1.000	3	0	1	9	0	0	0	0	0
14Maya De Los ReyesL/DS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
2Regan HillOPP	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
6Sophia Van NameOH	1	3	1	5	.400	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	3.5
Team totals		33	27	121	.050	31	2	6	54	1	4	12	10	60

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 4 STONY · WM&MRY 4

Set 1

25-22

Longest run 4 STONYWM&MRY 4

Set 2

25-19

Longest run 4 STONYWM&MRY 3

Set 3

25-19

Longest run 3 STONYWM&MRY 2

Bars above the line = William & Mary leads, below = Stony Brook leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Stony Brook

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	82%9/11	38%5/13
2	80%8/10	47%7/15
3	73%8/11	27%3/11
4	58%7/12	36%4/11
5	67%6/9	45%5/11
6	75%6/8	54%7/13
All	72%44/61	42%31/74

William & Mary

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	60%9/15	22%2/9
2	50%8/16	31%4/13
3	80%8/10	11%1/9
4	55%6/11	27%3/11
5	50%6/12	40%4/10
6	60%6/10	33%3/9
All	58%43/74	28%17/61

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

135 rallies

Rally log

#	STONY-WM&MRY	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	STONY	STONY	Kill	Ella Sanders	set Rayanne Wheat	+2.0
2	1-1	STONY	WM&MRY	Kill	Emily McKee	set Cate Hatfield	+1.7
3	2-1	WM&MRY	STONY	Attack err	Avery Horejsi		+1.6
4	2-2	STONY	WM&MRY	Attack err	Quinn Anderson		+1.7
5	3-2	WM&MRY	STONY	Kill	Quinn Anderson	set Rayanne Wheat	+1.7
6	3-3	STONY	WM&MRY	Attack err	Mercedes Motton	blk Audrey Brcka, Olivia Westfort	+1.7
7	4-3	WM&MRY	STONY	Attack err	Cate Hatfield	blk Damisi Osibodu	+1.7
8	4-4	STONY	WM&MRY×3	Kill	Teagan Pocius	set Cate Hatfield	+1.8
9	4-5	WM&MRY	WM&MRY×3	Attack err	Damisi Osibodu		+2.3
10	4-6	WM&MRY	WM&MRY×3	Kill	Katherine Arnason	set Cate Hatfield	+2.5
11	5-6	WM&MRY	STONY×3	Attack err	Katherine Arnason	blk Quinn Anderson	+1.9
12	6-6	STONY	STONY×3	Attack err	Audrey Brcka	blk Damisi Osibodu, Ella Sanders	+2.3
13	7-6	STONY	STONY×3	Kill	Ella Sanders	set Taryn Su	+2.3
14	7-7	STONY	WM&MRY×4	Serve err	STONY server		+1.9
15	7-8	WM&MRY	WM&MRY×4	Attack err	Ella Sanders		+2.6
16	7-9	WM&MRY	WM&MRY×4	Attack err	Ella Sanders		+2.7
17	7-10	WM&MRY	WM&MRY×4	Bad set	Damisi Osibodu		+2.7
18	8-10	WM&MRY	STONY	Attack err	Teagan Pocius		+1.9
19	8-11	STONY	WM&MRY	Kill	Emily McKee	set Cate Hatfield	+2.3
20	8-12	WM&MRY	WM&MRY	Kill	Katherine Arnason	set Cate Hatfield	+2.7
21	9-12	WM&MRY	STONY×4	Serve err	WM&MRY server		+1.8
22	10-12	STONY	STONY×4	Attack err	Katherine Arnason		+2.5
23	11-12	STONY	STONY×4	Kill	Ayanna Pierre Louis	set Rayanne Wheat	+2.7
24	12-12	STONY	STONY×4	Kill	Ella Sanders	set Rayanne Wheat	+2.8
25	12-13	STONY	WM&MRY	Attack err	Carey-Jean Block		+2.5
26	12-14	WM&MRY	WM&MRY	Ace	WM&MRY server	aced Carey-Jean Block	+3.2
27	13-14	WM&MRY	STONY×3	Kill	Ella Sanders	set Rayanne Wheat	+2.4
28	14-14	STONY	STONY×3	Attack err	Emily McKee		+3.1
29	15-14	STONY	STONY×3	Kill	Ella Sanders	set Rayanne Wheat	+3.1
30	15-15	STONY	WM&MRY	Kill	Olivia Westfort	set Cate Hatfield	+2.6
31	16-15	WM&MRY	STONY	Kill	Quinn Anderson	set Rayanne Wheat	+2.6
32	17-15	STONY	STONY	Attack err	Audrey Brcka		+3.1
33	17-16	STONY	WM&MRY	Attack err	Damisi Osibodu		+2.4
34	18-16	WM&MRY	STONY	Kill	Ella Sanders	set Rayanne Wheat	+2.6
35	18-17	STONY	WM&MRY×3	Attack err	Quinn Anderson		+2.5
36	18-18	WM&MRY	WM&MRY×3	Attack err	Damisi Osibodu	blk Teagan Pocius	+3.8
37	18-19	WM&MRY	WM&MRY×3	Kill	Teagan Pocius	set Cate Hatfield	+4.3
38	19-19	WM&MRY	STONY	Kill	Quinn Anderson	set Taryn Su	+3.4
39	19-20	STONY	WM&MRY	Kill	Teagan Pocius	set Cate Hatfield	+3.9
40	20-20	WM&MRY	STONY×3	Kill	Ella Sanders	set Damisi Osibodu	+3.7
41	21-20	STONY	STONY×3	Kill	Ella Sanders	set Ayanna Pierre Louis	+4.9
42	22-20	STONY	STONY×3	Attack err	Katherine Arnason		+4.5
43	22-21	STONY	WM&MRY	Kill	Teagan Pocius	set Cate Hatfield	+3.1
44	23-21	WM&MRY	STONY	Serve err	WM&MRY server		+4.1
45	24-21	STONY	STONY	Bad set	Cate Hatfield		+3.6
46	24-22	STONY	WM&MRY	Kill	Olivia Westfort	set Cate Hatfield	+1.3
47	25-22	WM&MRY	STONY	Attack err	Katherine Arnason		+2.7
Set 2
1	1-0	WM&MRY	STONY	Serve err	WM&MRY server		+1.3
2	1-1	STONY	WM&MRY	Attack err	Ayanna Pierre Louis	blk Olivia Westfort	+1.4
3	2-1	WM&MRY	STONY	Kill	Quinn Anderson	set Zayda Fuertez	+1.3
4	3-1	STONY	STONY	Ace	STONY server	aced Ava Crabtree	+1.6
5	3-2	STONY	WM&MRY	Serve err	STONY server		+1.3
6	4-2	WM&MRY	STONY	Attack err	Audrey Brcka		+1.3
7	4-3	STONY	WM&MRY	Kill	Olivia Westfort	set Cate Hatfield	+1.3
8	5-3	WM&MRY	STONY×3	Attack err	Audrey Brcka	blk Damisi Osibodu, Leimaile Lasike	+1.3
9	6-3	STONY	STONY×3	Kill	Ella Sanders	set Zayda Fuertez	+1.5
10	7-3	STONY	STONY×3	Attack err	Audrey Brcka	blk Damisi Osibodu, Leimaile Lasike	+1.4
11	7-4	STONY	WM&MRY	Attack err	Ella Sanders	blk Teagan Pocius, Cate Hatfield	+1.1
12	8-4	WM&MRY	STONY	Kill	Ella Sanders	set Taryn Su	+1.1
13	8-5	STONY	WM&MRY	Kill	Katherine Arnason	set Cate Hatfield	+1.1
14	9-5	WM&MRY	STONY	Attack err	Katherine Arnason	blk Ayanna Pierre Louis, Ella Sanders	+1.2
15	9-6	STONY	WM&MRY	Kill	Katherine Arnason	set Cate Hatfield	+1.1
16	10-6	WM&MRY	STONY	Kill	Carey-Jean Block	set Rayanne Wheat	+1.2
17	10-7	STONY	WM&MRY×3	Serve err	STONY server		+1.1
18	10-8	WM&MRY	WM&MRY×3	Kill	Olivia Westfort	set Rayanne Wheat	+1.6
19	10-9	WM&MRY	WM&MRY×3	Kill	Olivia Westfort	set Cate Hatfield	+1.9
20	11-9	WM&MRY	STONY	Attack err	Emily McKee	blk Ayanna Pierre Louis, Mercedes Motton	+1.6
21	12-9	STONY	STONY	Kill	Damisi Osibodu	set Rayanne Wheat	+1.8
22	12-10	STONY	WM&MRY	Kill	Cate Hatfield		+1.4
23	13-10	WM&MRY	STONY	Kill	Ella Sanders	set Rayanne Wheat	+1.5
24	13-11	STONY	WM&MRY	Attack err	Ella Sanders		+1.4
25	14-11	WM&MRY	STONY	Kill	Damisi Osibodu	set Zayda Fuertez	+1.6
26	14-12	STONY	WM&MRY	Kill	Audrey Brcka	set Cate Hatfield	+1.5
27	15-12	WM&MRY	STONY×4	Attack err	Teagan Pocius	blk Ella Sanders	+1.6
28	16-12	STONY	STONY×4	Attack err	Audrey Brcka		+1.7
29	17-12	STONY	STONY×4	Attack err	Katherine Arnason		+1.3
30	18-12	STONY	STONY×4	Attack err	Katherine Arnason	blk Leimaile Lasike, Ayanna Pierre Louis	+1.0
31	18-13	STONY	WM&MRY	Kill	Audrey Brcka	set Cate Hatfield	+0.5
32	19-13	WM&MRY	STONY	Kill	Ella Sanders	set Taryn Su	+0.7
33	19-14	STONY	WM&MRY	Attack err	Ella Sanders	blk Teagan Pocius, Katherine Arnason	+0.5
34	20-14	WM&MRY	STONY	Kill	Ella Sanders	set Rayanne Wheat	+0.7
35	21-14	STONY	STONY	Attack err	Katherine Arnason	blk Quinn Anderson	+0.5
36	21-15	STONY	WM&MRY	Kill	Emily McKee	set Avery Horejsi	+0.2
37	22-15	WM&MRY	STONY	Kill	Quinn Anderson	set Rayanne Wheat	+0.3
38	22-16	STONY	WM&MRY	Serve err	STONY server		+0.2
39	22-17	WM&MRY	WM&MRY	Ace	WM&MRY server	aced Quinn Anderson	+0.3
40	23-17	WM&MRY	STONY	Attack err	Olivia Westfort	blk Damisi Osibodu, Mercedes Motton	+0.5
41	24-17	STONY	STONY	Attack err	Audrey Brcka		+0.2
42	24-18	STONY	WM&MRY	Kill	Audrey Brcka	set Avery Horejsi	+0.0
43	24-19	WM&MRY	WM&MRY	Attack err	Quinn Anderson	blk Teagan Pocius, Cate Hatfield	+0.1
44	25-19	WM&MRY	STONY	Kill	Damisi Osibodu	set Taryn Su	+0.2
Set 3
1	0-1	STONY	WM&MRY	Serve err	STONY server		+0.8
2	0-2	WM&MRY	WM&MRY	Attack err	Ayanna Pierre Louis	blk Teagan Pocius	+1.0
3	1-2	WM&MRY	STONY×3	Attack err	Audrey Brcka		+0.8
4	2-2	STONY	STONY×3	Bad set	Cate Hatfield		+1.0
5	3-2	STONY	STONY×3	Kill	Ayanna Pierre Louis	set Rayanne Wheat	+0.9
6	3-3	STONY	WM&MRY	Attack err	Quinn Anderson	blk Sophia Van Name, Teagan Pocius	+0.8
7	4-3	WM&MRY	STONY	Serve err	WM&MRY server		+0.8
8	4-4	STONY	WM&MRY	Kill	Sophia Van Name	set Cate Hatfield	+0.8
9	4-5	WM&MRY	WM&MRY	Attack err	Mercedes Motton	blk Olivia Westfort, Emily McKee	+1.1
10	5-5	WM&MRY	STONY	Attack err	Sophia Van Name	blk Damisi Osibodu	+0.8
11	5-6	STONY	WM&MRY	Kill	Olivia Westfort	set Cate Hatfield	+0.9
12	6-6	WM&MRY	STONY	Kill	Leimaile Lasike	set Taryn Su	+0.9
13	6-7	STONY	WM&MRY	Kill	Olivia Westfort	set Cate Hatfield	+0.9
14	7-7	WM&MRY	STONY×3	Kill	Ella Sanders	set Taryn Su	+0.9
15	8-7	STONY	STONY×3	Kill	Ella Sanders	set Taryn Su	+1.1
16	9-7	STONY	STONY×3	Attack err	Audrey Brcka		+1.0
17	9-8	STONY	WM&MRY	Kill	Olivia Westfort	set Cate Hatfield	+0.8
18	10-8	WM&MRY	STONY	Kill	Leimaile Lasike	set Ayanna Pierre Louis	+0.9
19	10-9	STONY	WM&MRY	Kill	Audrey Brcka	set Cate Hatfield	+0.9
20	11-9	WM&MRY	STONY	Kill	Ella Sanders	set Rayanne Wheat	+0.9
21	12-9	STONY	STONY	Attack err	Audrey Brcka		+1.0
22	12-10	STONY	WM&MRY	Kill	Teagan Pocius	set Cate Hatfield	+0.8
23	13-10	WM&MRY	STONY	Serve err	WM&MRY server		+0.8
24	13-11	STONY	WM&MRY	Kill	Sophia Van Name	set Cate Hatfield	+0.8
25	13-12	WM&MRY	WM&MRY	Kill	Olivia Westfort	set Cate Hatfield	+1.1
26	14-12	WM&MRY	STONY×3	Kill	Ella Sanders	set Zayda Fuertez	+1.0
27	15-12	STONY	STONY×3	Bad set	Cate Hatfield		+1.1
28	16-12	STONY	STONY×3	Kill	Leimaile Lasike	set Taryn Su	+0.9
29	16-13	STONY	WM&MRY	Kill	Sophia Van Name	set Cate Hatfield	+0.6
30	17-13	WM&MRY	STONY	Kill	Quinn Anderson	set Taryn Su	+0.8
31	18-13	STONY	STONY	Attack err	Cate Hatfield	blk Ella Sanders, Damisi Osibodu	+0.7
32	18-14	STONY	WM&MRY	Kill	Olivia Westfort	set Cate Hatfield	+0.4
33	19-14	WM&MRY	STONY	Kill	Carey-Jean Block	set Taryn Su	+0.6
34	19-15	STONY	WM&MRY	Serve err	STONY server		+0.4
35	19-16	WM&MRY	WM&MRY	Kill	Audrey Brcka	set Cate Hatfield	+0.8
36	20-16	WM&MRY	STONY	Kill	Taryn Su	set Audrey Brcka	+0.8
37	20-17	STONY	WM&MRY	Kill	Teagan Pocius	set Cate Hatfield	+0.6
38	21-17	WM&MRY	STONY	Kill	Ella Sanders	set Rayanne Wheat	+0.8
39	22-17	STONY	STONY	Kill	Quinn Anderson	set Rayanne Wheat	+0.6
40	22-18	STONY	WM&MRY	Kill	Audrey Brcka	set Avery Horejsi	+0.3
41	23-18	WM&MRY	STONY	Serve err	WM&MRY server		+0.5
42	23-19	STONY	WM&MRY	Attack err	Ella Sanders	blk Teagan Pocius	+0.2
43	24-19	WM&MRY	STONY	Kill	Damisi Osibodu	set Rayanne Wheat	+0.4
44	25-19	STONY	STONY	Kill	Quinn Anderson	set Taryn Su	+0.1

Score shown after each rally, Stony Brook first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.