FinalSat, Sep 12, 2026

AwayUAC-

0:3

HomeBIG-EAST

Xavier def. Austin Peay 3–0

(25-11, 25-23, 25-19)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
A PEAY	11	23	19	0
XAVIER	25	25	25	3

RallyIQ model

Win probability

XAVIER above 50 · A PEAY below

Biggest swing: 2.0% to Xavier — set 2, A PEAY 23-25 XAVIER. Taly Cloyd stuffed by Gabrielle Semona & Quinci Thomas. XAVIER win probability 97% → 99%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

A PEAY 7.0%93.0% XAVIER

Austin Peay wins

3-0

0.8%

3-1

2.0%

3-2

4.1%

Xavier wins

3-0

50.4%

3-1

30.9%

3-2

11.7%

A PEAY break %: 38.3% vs this opp
XAVIER break %: 49.6% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Taly CloydAttack error+2.0%
Taly Cloyd stuffed by Gabrielle Semona & Quinci Thomas
Set 2 · A PEAY 23-25 XAVIER · XAVIER 97% → 99%
02
Taly CloydKill+2.0%
Kill by Taly Cloyd (set by Brooklynn Merrell)
Set 2 · A PEAY 23-23 XAVIER · A PEAY 3% → 5%
03
Charlotte MoriartyKill+2.0%
Kill by Charlotte Moriarty (set by Macy Hatkevich)
Set 2 · A PEAY 23-24 XAVIER · XAVIER 95% → 97%
04
Charlotte MoriartyAttack error+1.1%
Attack error by Charlotte Moriarty
Set 2 · A PEAY 22-23 XAVIER · A PEAY 2% → 3%
05
XAVIER serverAce+0.7%
Xavier ace on Reagan Anderson
Set 1 · A PEAY 0-1 XAVIER · XAVIER 93% → 94%
06
Ava TildenAttack error+0.7%
Ava Tilden stuffed by Nicole Okojie & Alison Coy
Set 2 · A PEAY 6-5 XAVIER · A PEAY 4% → 4%
07
Lauren WallaceKill+0.7%
Kill by Lauren Wallace (set by Reagan Anderson)
Set 1 · A PEAY 2-3 XAVIER · A PEAY 6% → 6%
08
Macy HatkevichKill+0.7%
Kill by Macy Hatkevich (set by Kasey Quenichet)
Set 2 · A PEAY 20-23 XAVIER · XAVIER 98% → 98%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Austin Peayaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
3Lauren WallaceOH	3	7	4	30	.100	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.5	7.5
15Taly CloydOPP	3	5	3	17	.118	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	5
7Malena BenzMB	3	4	2	12	.167	0	0	0	2	0	2	1	5
1Cree HollierOH	3	4	1	9	.333	0	0	0	8	7	0	0	4
5Brooklynn MerrellL/DS	3	1	0	1	1.000	12	1	0	6	0	0	0	2
17Alison CoyOPP	2	2	3	8	-.125	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	3
11Nicole OkojieMB	3	5	1	9	.444	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	6
12Sarah ButlerS	3	0	0	3	.000	10	0	1	2	0	0	0	0
4Reagan AndersonL/DS	3	0	0	2	.000	2	0	0	13	1	0	0	0
2Callie GardnerL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	1	0	1	3	0	0	0	0
6Taylor SassOH	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
24Kaelynn AshleyOH	1	0	0	7	.000	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.5	0.5
Team totals		28	14	98	.143	26	1	2	37	12	8	4	53

Xavierhome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
4Charlotte MoriartyOH	3	13	3	26	.385	0	3	4	5	0	0	1	0.5	16.5
17Gabrielle SemonaMB	3	6	1	12	.417	0	1	1	0	0	2	2	3	10
8Macy HatkevichS	3	4	1	9	.333	29	2	1	3	0	0	0	0	6
9Quinci ThomasOH	3	4	1	15	.200	0	0	0	3	0	0	1	0.5	4.5
11Kasey QuenichetL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	3	0	1	4	1	0	0	0	0
12McKinley BoehmMB	1	3	0	3	1.000	0	2	0	1	0	0	0	0	5
15Ava TildenOH	3	7	7	19	.000	0	0	0	3	0	0	1	0.5	7.5
2Kelsey NiesenL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	6	2	0	16	0	0	0	0	2
10Cameron SherOH	2	2	0	5	.400	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	2
7Elouise CzajkowskiL/DS	2	0	0	0	–	0	1	0	6	0	0	0	0	1
14Catherine FlahartyOH	1	4	0	7	.571	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	4
16Margo KempMB	1	3	1	7	.286	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3
5Jenna BarhorstS	1	0	0	4	.000	4	1	1	3	0	0	0	0	1
18Iyanna BattleMB	1	0	0	1	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	0.5
Team totals		46	14	108	.296	42	12	8	46	1	2	6	5	75

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 4 A PEAY · XAVIER 7

Set 1

11-25

Longest run 3 A PEAYXAVIER 6

Set 2

23-25

Longest run 4 A PEAYXAVIER 7

Set 3

19-25

Longest run 4 A PEAYXAVIER 5

Bars above the line = Xavier leads, below = Austin Peay leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Austin Peay

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	47%7/15	50%6/12
2	46%6/13	13%1/8
3	55%6/11	45%5/11
4	29%5/17	25%2/8
5	71%5/7	44%4/9
6	45%5/11	17%1/6
All	46%34/74	35%19/54

Xavier

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	67%8/12	50%7/14
2	60%6/10	45%5/11
3	86%6/7	57%8/14
4	71%5/7	50%5/10
5	56%5/9	62%8/13
6	56%5/9	58%7/12
All	65%35/54	54%40/74

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

128 rallies

Rally log

#	A PEAY-XAVIER	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	0-1	XAVIER	XAVIER×3	Ace	XAVIER server	aced Reagan Anderson	+0.7
2	0-2	XAVIER	XAVIER×3	Kill	Charlotte Moriarty	set Kasey Quenichet	+0.6
3	0-3	XAVIER	XAVIER×3	Kill	Charlotte Moriarty	set Macy Hatkevich	+0.5
4	1-3	XAVIER	A PEAY	Kill	Cree Hollier	set Brooklynn Merrell	+0.4
5	2-3	A PEAY	A PEAY	Kill	Lauren Wallace	set Reagan Anderson	+0.7
6	2-4	A PEAY	XAVIER×3	Kill	Gabrielle Semona	set Macy Hatkevich	+0.5
7	2-5	XAVIER	XAVIER×3	Kill	Ava Tilden		+0.6
8	2-6	XAVIER	XAVIER×3	Ace	XAVIER server	aced Cree Hollier	+0.5
9	3-6	XAVIER	A PEAY	Kill	Taly Cloyd	set Brooklynn Merrell	+0.4
10	4-6	A PEAY	A PEAY	Attack err	Ava Tilden		+0.6
11	4-7	A PEAY	XAVIER×5	Attack err	Malena Benz	blk Gabrielle Semona	+0.5
12	4-8	XAVIER	XAVIER×5	Ace	XAVIER server	aced Cree Hollier	+0.5
13	4-9	XAVIER	XAVIER×5	Kill	Ava Tilden	set Macy Hatkevich	+0.4
14	4-10	XAVIER	XAVIER×5	Kill	Ava Tilden	set Kelsey Niesen	+0.3
15	4-11	XAVIER	XAVIER×5	Ace	XAVIER server	aced Team	+0.2
16	5-11	XAVIER	A PEAY	Kill	Malena Benz	set Brooklynn Merrell	+0.1
17	5-12	A PEAY	XAVIER	Kill	Quinci Thomas	set Macy Hatkevich	+0.2
18	6-12	XAVIER	A PEAY	Kill	Nicole Okojie	set Sarah Butler	+0.1
19	6-13	A PEAY	XAVIER	Kill	McKinley Boehm	set Macy Hatkevich	+0.2
20	6-14	XAVIER	XAVIER	Kill	McKinley Boehm	set Macy Hatkevich	+0.1
21	7-14	XAVIER	A PEAY	Kill	Cree Hollier	set Sarah Butler	+0.1
22	7-15	A PEAY	XAVIER×6	Kill	McKinley Boehm	set Macy Hatkevich	+0.1
23	7-16	XAVIER	XAVIER×6	Ace	XAVIER server	aced Cree Hollier	+0.1
24	7-17	XAVIER	XAVIER×6	Attack err	Taly Cloyd		+0.0
25	7-18	XAVIER	XAVIER×6	Attack err	Nicole Okojie	blk Gabrielle Semona	+0.0
26	7-19	XAVIER	XAVIER×6	Kill	Charlotte Moriarty	set Macy Hatkevich	+0.0
27	7-20	XAVIER	XAVIER×6	Ace	XAVIER server	aced Cree Hollier	+0.0
28	8-20	XAVIER	A PEAY×3	Kill	Cree Hollier	set Taly Cloyd	+0.0
29	9-20	A PEAY	A PEAY×3	Attack err	Gabrielle Semona		+0.0
30	10-20	A PEAY	A PEAY×3	Kill	Taly Cloyd		+0.0
31	10-21	A PEAY	XAVIER×4	Bad set	Taly Cloyd		+0.0
32	10-22	XAVIER	XAVIER×4	Kill	Cameron Sher	set Macy Hatkevich	+0.0
33	10-23	XAVIER	XAVIER×4	Ace	XAVIER server	aced Team	+0.0
34	10-24	XAVIER	XAVIER×4	Kill	Macy Hatkevich	set Macy Hatkevich	+0.0
35	11-24	XAVIER	A PEAY	Kill	Malena Benz	set Brooklynn Merrell	+0.0
36	11-25	A PEAY	XAVIER	Kill	Cameron Sher	set Macy Hatkevich	+0.0
Set 2
1	1-0	A PEAY	A PEAY	Ace	A PEAY server	aced Kasey Quenichet	+0.6
2	1-1	A PEAY	XAVIER	Kill	Charlotte Moriarty	set Macy Hatkevich	+0.4
3	2-1	XAVIER	A PEAY	Kill	Malena Benz	set Brooklynn Merrell	+0.5
4	2-2	A PEAY	XAVIER×3	Kill	Charlotte Moriarty	set Macy Hatkevich	+0.4
5	2-3	XAVIER	XAVIER×3	Kill	Quinci Thomas	set Macy Hatkevich	+0.5
6	2-4	XAVIER	XAVIER×3	Ace	XAVIER server	aced Team	+0.4
7	3-4	XAVIER	A PEAY	Kill	Lauren Wallace	set Brooklynn Merrell	+0.4
8	4-4	A PEAY	A PEAY	Kill	Alison Coy	set Brooklynn Merrell	+0.6
9	4-5	A PEAY	XAVIER	Kill	Ava Tilden	set Macy Hatkevich	+0.4
10	5-5	XAVIER	A PEAY	Kill	Lauren Wallace	set Brooklynn Merrell	+0.5
11	6-5	A PEAY	A PEAY	Attack err	Ava Tilden	blk Nicole Okojie, Alison Coy	+0.7
12	6-6	A PEAY	XAVIER×7	Kill	Margo Kemp	set Macy Hatkevich	+0.5
13	6-7	XAVIER	XAVIER×7	Kill	Margo Kemp	set Macy Hatkevich	+0.6
14	6-8	XAVIER	XAVIER×7	Kill	Macy Hatkevich	set Sarah Butler	+0.5
15	6-9	XAVIER	XAVIER×7	Attack err	Alison Coy		+0.4
16	6-10	XAVIER	XAVIER×7	Attack err	Lauren Wallace		+0.4
17	6-11	XAVIER	XAVIER×7	Attack err	Alison Coy		+0.3
18	6-12	XAVIER	XAVIER×7	Ace	XAVIER server	aced Cree Hollier	+0.2
19	7-12	XAVIER	A PEAY×4	Kill	Nicole Okojie	set Sarah Butler	+0.1
20	8-12	A PEAY	A PEAY×4	Attack err	Ava Tilden		+0.3
21	9-12	A PEAY	A PEAY×4	Attack err	Ava Tilden	blk Nicole Okojie, Alison Coy	+0.4
22	10-12	A PEAY	A PEAY×4	Attack err	Margo Kemp		+0.5
23	10-13	A PEAY	XAVIER	Serve err	A PEAY server		+0.4
24	10-14	XAVIER	XAVIER	Kill	Charlotte Moriarty	set Macy Hatkevich	+0.4
25	11-14	XAVIER	A PEAY	Kill	Cree Hollier	set Sarah Butler	+0.3
26	11-15	A PEAY	XAVIER	Kill	Margo Kemp	set Macy Hatkevich	+0.3
27	12-15	XAVIER	A PEAY	Attack err	Charlotte Moriarty		+0.3
28	12-16	A PEAY	XAVIER	Kill	Macy Hatkevich	set Kasey Quenichet	+0.3
29	13-16	XAVIER	A PEAY	Serve err	XAVIER server		+0.3
30	13-17	A PEAY	XAVIER	Kill	Charlotte Moriarty	set Kelsey Niesen	+0.3
31	13-18	XAVIER	XAVIER	Ace	XAVIER server	aced Cree Hollier	+0.3
32	14-18	XAVIER	A PEAY	Serve err	XAVIER server		+0.2
33	14-19	A PEAY	XAVIER	Attack err	Lauren Wallace		+0.2
34	15-19	XAVIER	A PEAY	Kill	Lauren Wallace	set Brooklynn Merrell	+0.2
35	16-19	A PEAY	A PEAY	Bad set	Macy Hatkevich		+0.4
36	16-20	A PEAY	XAVIER	Kill	Quinci Thomas	set Kelsey Niesen	+0.4
37	16-21	XAVIER	XAVIER	Attack err	Alison Coy		+0.3
38	17-21	XAVIER	A PEAY	Kill	Lauren Wallace	set Sarah Butler	+0.2
39	18-21	A PEAY	A PEAY	Kill	Alison Coy	set Callie Gardner	+0.3
40	18-22	A PEAY	XAVIER	Kill	Charlotte Moriarty	set Macy Hatkevich	+0.4
41	19-22	XAVIER	A PEAY	Serve err	XAVIER server		+0.2
42	20-22	A PEAY	A PEAY	Kill	Taly Cloyd	set Sarah Butler	+0.6
43	20-23	A PEAY	XAVIER	Kill	Macy Hatkevich	set Kasey Quenichet	+0.7
44	21-23	XAVIER	A PEAY×3	Kill	Nicole Okojie	set Sarah Butler	+0.4
45	22-23	A PEAY	A PEAY×3	Attack err	Charlotte Moriarty		+1.1
46	23-23	A PEAY	A PEAY×3	Kill	Taly Cloyd	set Brooklynn Merrell	+2.0
47	23-24	A PEAY	XAVIER	Kill	Charlotte Moriarty	set Macy Hatkevich	+2.0
48	23-25	XAVIER	XAVIER	Attack err	Taly Cloyd	blk Gabrielle Semona, Quinci Thomas	+2.0
Set 3
1	0-1	XAVIER	XAVIER	Kill	Quinci Thomas	set Macy Hatkevich	+0.2
2	1-1	XAVIER	A PEAY	Kill	Malena Benz	set Brooklynn Merrell	+0.2
3	1-2	A PEAY	XAVIER	Attack err	Lauren Wallace	blk Gabrielle Semona, Charlotte Moriarty	+0.2
4	2-2	XAVIER	A PEAY	Serve err	XAVIER server		+0.2
5	2-3	A PEAY	XAVIER	Kill	Gabrielle Semona	set Macy Hatkevich	+0.2
6	3-3	XAVIER	A PEAY	Attack err	Macy Hatkevich		+0.2
7	3-4	A PEAY	XAVIER	Serve err	A PEAY server		+0.2
8	4-4	XAVIER	A PEAY	Serve err	XAVIER server		+0.2
9	4-5	A PEAY	XAVIER	Kill	Catherine Flaharty	set Kelsey Niesen	+0.2
10	5-5	XAVIER	A PEAY	Kill	Nicole Okojie	set Sarah Butler	+0.2
11	5-6	A PEAY	XAVIER	Kill	Catherine Flaharty	set Jenna Barhorst	+0.2
12	6-6	XAVIER	A PEAY	Bad set	Gabrielle Semona		+0.2
13	6-7	A PEAY	XAVIER	Attack err	Cree Hollier		+0.2
14	7-7	XAVIER	A PEAY	Attack err	Charlotte Moriarty		+0.2
15	7-8	A PEAY	XAVIER	Kill	Gabrielle Semona	set Macy Hatkevich	+0.2
16	8-8	XAVIER	A PEAY×4	Serve err	XAVIER server		+0.2
17	9-8	A PEAY	A PEAY×4	Attack err	Ava Tilden	blk Malena Benz, Lauren Wallace	+0.4
18	10-8	A PEAY	A PEAY×4	Attack err	Quinci Thomas	blk Kaelynn Ashley, Malena Benz	+0.4
19	11-8	A PEAY	A PEAY×4	Attack err	Ava Tilden		+0.4
20	11-9	A PEAY	XAVIER	Kill	Gabrielle Semona	set Macy Hatkevich	+0.3
21	11-10	XAVIER	XAVIER	Ace	XAVIER server	aced Team	+0.4
22	12-10	XAVIER	A PEAY	Kill	Lauren Wallace	set Brooklynn Merrell	+0.4
23	12-11	A PEAY	XAVIER	Attack err	Lauren Wallace	blk Ava Tilden, Iyanna Battle	+0.3
24	12-12	XAVIER	XAVIER	Kill	Catherine Flaharty	set Kelsey Niesen	+0.4
25	13-12	XAVIER	A PEAY	Kill	Lauren Wallace	set Sarah Butler	+0.3
26	13-13	A PEAY	XAVIER	Kill	Ava Tilden	set Jenna Barhorst	+0.3
27	14-13	XAVIER	A PEAY	Kill	Nicole Okojie	set Sarah Butler	+0.4
28	14-14	A PEAY	XAVIER	Kill	Charlotte Moriarty	set Jenna Barhorst	+0.3
29	14-15	XAVIER	XAVIER	Attack err	Taly Cloyd		+0.4
30	15-15	XAVIER	A PEAY	Kill	Taly Cloyd	set Reagan Anderson	+0.3
31	16-15	A PEAY	A PEAY	Attack err	Ava Tilden		+0.5
32	16-16	A PEAY	XAVIER	Attack err	Malena Benz		+0.4
33	17-16	XAVIER	A PEAY	Kill	Brooklynn Merrell	set Gabrielle Semona	+0.4
34	17-17	A PEAY	XAVIER×3	Kill	Gabrielle Semona	set Macy Hatkevich	+0.4
35	17-18	XAVIER	XAVIER×3	Kill	Charlotte Moriarty	set Macy Hatkevich	+0.5
36	17-19	XAVIER	XAVIER×3	Kill	Ava Tilden	set Macy Hatkevich	+0.4
37	18-19	XAVIER	A PEAY	Serve err	XAVIER server		+0.3
38	18-20	A PEAY	XAVIER	Kill	Gabrielle Semona	set Macy Hatkevich	+0.3
39	19-20	XAVIER	A PEAY	Serve err	XAVIER server		+0.3
40	19-21	A PEAY	XAVIER×5	Kill	Charlotte Moriarty	set Macy Hatkevich	+0.4
41	19-22	XAVIER	XAVIER×5	Ace	XAVIER server	aced Cree Hollier	+0.4
42	19-23	XAVIER	XAVIER×5	Kill	Charlotte Moriarty	set Jenna Barhorst	+0.2
43	19-24	XAVIER	XAVIER×5	Kill	Ava Tilden		+0.1
44	19-25	XAVIER	XAVIER×5	Kill	Catherine Flaharty	set Kelsey Niesen	+0.0

Score shown after each rally, Austin Peay first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.