FinalThu, Sep 10, 2026

AwayBIG-SKY

3:0

HomeMOUNTAIN-WEST

Weber St. def. Nevada 3–0

(25-20, 25-20, 25-16)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
WEB ST	25	25	25	3
NEVADA	20	20	16	0

RallyIQ model

Win probability

NEVADA above 50 · WEB ST below

Biggest swing: 2.6% to Nevada — set 1, WEB ST 11-12 NEVADA. Kill by Jess Walkenhorst (set by Adriana Dorn). NEVADA win probability 21% → 24%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

WEB ST 80.0%20.0% NEVADA

Weber St. wins

3-0

31.5%

3-1

30.2%

3-2

18.3%

Nevada wins

3-0

3.3%

3-1

6.6%

3-2

10.1%

WEB ST break %: 46.0% vs this opp
NEVADA break %: 39.6% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Jess WalkenhorstKill+2.6%
Kill by Jess Walkenhorst (set by Adriana Dorn)
Set 1 · WEB ST 11-12 NEVADA · NEVADA 21% → 24%
02
Mckaley HerrAttack error+2.4%
Attack error by Mckaley Herr
Set 1 · WEB ST 13-12 NEVADA · WEB ST 78% → 81%
03
Paige ThiesKill+2.4%
Kill by Paige Thies (set by Adriana Dorn)
Set 1 · WEB ST 5-8 NEVADA · NEVADA 25% → 27%
04
Tennille GonderKill+2.2%
Kill by Tennille Gonder (set by Addison Eastwood)
Set 1 · WEB ST 14-12 NEVADA · WEB ST 81% → 83%
05
WEB ST serverAce+2.2%
Weber St. ace on Lara Pacheco
Set 1 · WEB ST 7-8 NEVADA · WEB ST 74% → 77%
06
Ceren SertAttack error+2.2%
Ceren Sert stuffed by Lexie Carlson & Stacia Barker
Set 1 · WEB ST 8-8 NEVADA · WEB ST 77% → 79%
07
Rose MooreKill+2.2%
Kill by Rose Moore (set by Adriana Dorn)
Set 1 · WEB ST 10-9 NEVADA · WEB ST 79% → 81%
08
NEVADA serverAce+2.1%
Nevada ace on Tennille Gonder
Set 1 · WEB ST 1-4 NEVADA · NEVADA 24% → 26%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Weber St.away

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
14Tennille GonderOH	3	12	1	22	.500	0	0	1	2	2	2	1	2.5	14.5
5Rose MooreOPP	3	12	3	30	.300	0	0	1	7	0	0	0	0	12
11Ziya MunyerMB	3	6	1	10	.500	0	4	1	1	0	0	1	0.5	10.5
1Lexie CarlsonOH	3	6	3	12	.250	0	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.5	6.5
19Stacia BarkerMB	3	3	1	4	.500	0	0	0	0	0	1	3	2.5	5.5
3Addison EastwoodS	3	0	0	3	.000	28	1	1	5	0	0	1	0.5	1.5
4Ashlyn AaronOPP	3	1	0	3	.333	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	1.5
9Marly PrattL/DS	3	0	0	1	.000	5	0	0	12	0	0	0	0	0
12Katelynn AlbanoL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	0	0
2Morgan PrattS	3	0	0	0	–	5	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0
6Maggie LarsenOH	2	0	0	0	–	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
18Reagan WilliamsL/DS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
21Sophia SparrowMB	1	1	0	1	1.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team totals		41	9	86	.372	38	6	5	34	3	3	8	7	75

Nevadahome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
10Paige ThiesOH	3	17	4	31	.419	1	2	1	6	1	0	0	0	19
14Karly BonaventureMB	3	4	0	12	.333	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	4.5
7Ceren SertMB	3	4	2	9	.222	0	0	1	3	0	0	1	0.5	4.5
13Adriana DornS	3	1	0	5	.200	32	1	3	7	0	1	2	2	4
5Summer SuppikL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	4	0	2	3	3	0	0	0	0
19Jess WalkenhorstOPP	2	3	3	9	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3
8Masyn NavarroL/DS	3	0	0	1	.000	1	0	1	7	1	0	0	0	0
15Lara PachecoL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	0	0
0Malia PilimaiOH	2	6	3	11	.273	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6
2Mckaley HerrOH	2	2	5	14	-.214	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2
6Madison LongOPP	1	1	1	6	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
16Kamryn TifftOH	1	1	1	2	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
17Alexa HamOH	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		39	19	100	.200	38	3	8	30	6	1	4	3	56

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 5 WEB ST · NEVADA 5

Set 1

25-20

Longest run 4 WEB STNEVADA 3

Set 2

25-20

Longest run 5 WEB STNEVADA 3

Set 3

25-16

Longest run 4 WEB STNEVADA 5

Bars above the line = Nevada leads, below = Weber St. leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Weber St.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	75%9/12	30%3/10
2	73%8/11	50%8/16
3	100%7/7	46%6/13
4	100%6/6	45%5/11
5	46%6/13	40%4/10
6	67%6/9	54%7/13
All	72%42/58	45%33/73

Nevada

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	62%8/13	27%3/11
2	42%8/19	38%5/13
3	75%6/8	0%0/8
4	50%6/12	0%0/6
5	43%6/14	45%5/11
6	86%6/7	33%3/9
All	55%40/73	28%16/58

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

131 rallies

Rally log

#	WEB ST-NEVADA	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	0-1	NEVADA	NEVADA	Kill	Paige Thies	set Adriana Dorn	+1.8
2	1-1	NEVADA	WEB ST	Kill	Rose Moore	set Addison Eastwood	+1.3
3	1-2	WEB ST	NEVADA×3	Kill	Karly Bonaventure	set Adriana Dorn	+1.4
4	1-3	NEVADA	NEVADA×3	Ace	NEVADA server	aced Tennille Gonder	+2.0
5	1-4	NEVADA	NEVADA×3	Ace	NEVADA server	aced Tennille Gonder	+2.1
6	2-4	NEVADA	WEB ST	Kill	Tennille Gonder	set Addison Eastwood	+1.4
7	2-5	WEB ST	NEVADA	Kill	Mckaley Herr	set Adriana Dorn	+1.7
8	3-5	NEVADA	WEB ST	Kill	Rose Moore	set Addison Eastwood	+1.4
9	3-6	WEB ST	NEVADA	Kill	Mckaley Herr	set Adriana Dorn	+1.7
10	4-6	NEVADA	WEB ST	Attack err	Mckaley Herr		+1.5
11	5-6	WEB ST	WEB ST	Attack err	Mckaley Herr		+2.1
12	5-7	WEB ST	NEVADA	Kill	Paige Thies	set Adriana Dorn	+1.7
13	5-8	NEVADA	NEVADA	Kill	Paige Thies	set Adriana Dorn	+2.4
14	6-8	NEVADA	WEB ST×3	Serve err	NEVADA server		+1.5
15	7-8	WEB ST	WEB ST×3	Ace	WEB ST server	aced Lara Pacheco	+2.2
16	8-8	WEB ST	WEB ST×3	Attack err	Ceren Sert	blk Lexie Carlson, Stacia Barker	+2.2
17	8-9	WEB ST	NEVADA	Serve err	WEB ST server		+1.8
18	9-9	NEVADA	WEB ST	Kill	Lexie Carlson	set Addison Eastwood	+1.6
19	10-9	WEB ST	WEB ST	Kill	Rose Moore	set Adriana Dorn	+2.2
20	10-10	WEB ST	NEVADA	Kill	Paige Thies	set Adriana Dorn	+1.7
21	11-10	NEVADA	WEB ST	Kill	Rose Moore	set Addison Eastwood	+1.6
22	11-11	WEB ST	NEVADA	Kill	Karly Bonaventure	set Adriana Dorn	+1.8
23	11-12	NEVADA	NEVADA	Kill	Jess Walkenhorst	set Adriana Dorn	+2.6
24	12-12	NEVADA	WEB ST×4	Kill	Tennille Gonder	set Masyn Navarro	+1.8
25	13-12	WEB ST	WEB ST×4	Attack err	Mckaley Herr		+2.4
26	14-12	WEB ST	WEB ST×4	Kill	Tennille Gonder	set Addison Eastwood	+2.2
27	15-12	WEB ST	WEB ST×4	Kill	Tennille Gonder	set Addison Eastwood	+1.9
28	15-13	WEB ST	NEVADA	Kill	Jess Walkenhorst	set Adriana Dorn	+1.3
29	16-13	NEVADA	WEB ST	Bad set	Adriana Dorn		+1.5
30	17-13	WEB ST	WEB ST	Kill	Ziya Munyer	set Adriana Dorn	+1.6
31	17-14	WEB ST	NEVADA	Kill	Jess Walkenhorst	set Masyn Navarro	+1.0
32	18-14	NEVADA	WEB ST	Kill	Tennille Gonder	set Addison Eastwood	+1.2
33	18-15	WEB ST	NEVADA	Serve err	WEB ST server		+1.0
34	19-15	NEVADA	WEB ST×3	Kill	Ashlyn Aaron	set Marly Pratt	+1.2
35	20-15	WEB ST	WEB ST×3	Attack err	Paige Thies	blk Stacia Barker, Ashlyn Aaron	+1.1
36	21-15	WEB ST	WEB ST×3	Ace	WEB ST server	aced Summer Suppik	+0.7
37	21-16	WEB ST	NEVADA	Kill	Ceren Sert	set Adriana Dorn	+0.3
38	21-17	NEVADA	NEVADA	Attack err	Stacia Barker		+0.6
39	22-17	NEVADA	WEB ST	Kill	Lexie Carlson	set Morgan Pratt	+0.7
40	22-18	WEB ST	NEVADA	Kill	Karly Bonaventure	set Adriana Dorn	+0.4
41	23-18	NEVADA	WEB ST	Serve err	NEVADA server		+0.6
42	23-19	WEB ST	NEVADA	Serve err	WEB ST server		+0.3
43	24-19	NEVADA	WEB ST	Attack err	Jess Walkenhorst		+0.5
44	24-20	WEB ST	NEVADA	Attack err	Ziya Munyer		+0.1
45	25-20	NEVADA	WEB ST	Serve err	NEVADA server		+0.3
Set 2
1	0-1	WEB ST	NEVADA	Attack err	Rose Moore		+1.1
2	1-1	NEVADA	WEB ST×5	Kill	Rose Moore	set Addison Eastwood	+1.0
3	2-1	WEB ST	WEB ST×5	Attack err	Mckaley Herr	blk Stacia Barker	+1.3
4	3-1	WEB ST	WEB ST×5	Attack err	Mckaley Herr		+1.2
5	4-1	WEB ST	WEB ST×5	Kill	Stacia Barker	set Addison Eastwood	+1.0
6	5-1	WEB ST	WEB ST×5	Kill	Tennille Gonder	set Marly Pratt	+0.9
7	5-2	WEB ST	NEVADA	Kill	Malia Pilimai	set Adriana Dorn	+0.7
8	6-2	NEVADA	WEB ST	Kill	Rose Moore	set Addison Eastwood	+0.7
9	6-3	WEB ST	NEVADA	Kill	Malia Pilimai	set Adriana Dorn	+0.7
10	7-3	NEVADA	WEB ST	Attack err	Ceren Sert	blk Tennille Gonder	+0.7
11	8-3	WEB ST	WEB ST	Attack err	Malia Pilimai		+0.8
12	8-4	WEB ST	NEVADA	Kill	Malia Pilimai	set Adriana Dorn	+0.5
13	9-4	NEVADA	WEB ST	Kill	Tennille Gonder	set Addison Eastwood	+0.6
14	9-5	WEB ST	NEVADA	Kill	Adriana Dorn	set Paige Thies	+0.5
15	9-6	NEVADA	NEVADA	Attack err	Lexie Carlson	blk Karly Bonaventure, Adriana Dorn	+0.9
16	10-6	NEVADA	WEB ST	Serve err	NEVADA server		+0.7
17	10-7	WEB ST	NEVADA×3	Kill	Paige Thies	set Adriana Dorn	+0.7
18	10-8	NEVADA	NEVADA×3	Ace	NEVADA server	aced Lexie Carlson	+1.2
19	10-9	NEVADA	NEVADA×3	Attack err	Rose Moore		+1.4
20	11-9	NEVADA	WEB ST×3	Serve err	NEVADA server		+1.1
21	12-9	WEB ST	WEB ST×3	Attack err	Jess Walkenhorst		+1.3
22	13-9	WEB ST	WEB ST×3	Ace	WEB ST server	aced Paige Thies	+1.1
23	13-10	WEB ST	NEVADA×3	Kill	Paige Thies	set Adriana Dorn	+0.7
24	13-11	NEVADA	NEVADA×3	Kill	Karly Bonaventure		+1.2
25	13-12	NEVADA	NEVADA×3	Attack err	Rose Moore		+1.6
26	14-12	NEVADA	WEB ST	Kill	Rose Moore	set Addison Eastwood	+1.2
27	14-13	WEB ST	NEVADA	Kill	Paige Thies	set Adriana Dorn	+1.2
28	15-13	NEVADA	WEB ST	Attack err	Jess Walkenhorst	blk Stacia Barker, Tennille Gonder	+1.3
29	15-14	WEB ST	NEVADA	Kill	Paige Thies	set Adriana Dorn	+1.3
30	16-14	NEVADA	WEB ST×3	Kill	Ziya Munyer	set Addison Eastwood	+1.4
31	17-14	WEB ST	WEB ST×3	Kill	Tennille Gonder	set Addison Eastwood	+1.6
32	18-14	WEB ST	WEB ST×3	Attack err	Malia Pilimai		+1.2
33	18-15	WEB ST	NEVADA	Attack err	Tennille Gonder	blk Adriana Dorn	+0.7
34	19-15	NEVADA	WEB ST	Serve err	NEVADA server		+0.9
35	20-15	WEB ST	WEB ST	Ace	WEB ST server	aced Masyn Navarro	+0.8
36	20-16	WEB ST	NEVADA	Kill	Paige Thies	set Adriana Dorn	+0.4
37	20-17	NEVADA	NEVADA	Kill	Paige Thies	set Adriana Dorn	+0.9
38	21-17	NEVADA	WEB ST	Kill	Lexie Carlson	set Morgan Pratt	+0.9
39	21-18	WEB ST	NEVADA	Kill	Paige Thies	set Summer Suppik	+0.6
40	22-18	NEVADA	WEB ST	Kill	Lexie Carlson	set Morgan Pratt	+0.9
41	22-19	WEB ST	NEVADA	Kill	Kamryn Tifft	set Summer Suppik	+0.6
42	23-19	NEVADA	WEB ST	Serve err	NEVADA server		+0.9
43	24-19	WEB ST	WEB ST	Attack err	Kamryn Tifft	blk Tennille Gonder	+0.5
44	24-20	WEB ST	NEVADA	Kill	Malia Pilimai	set Adriana Dorn	+0.1
45	25-20	NEVADA	WEB ST	Kill	Tennille Gonder	set Addison Eastwood	+0.2
Set 3
1	1-0	NEVADA	WEB ST×3	Serve err	NEVADA server		+0.5
2	2-0	WEB ST	WEB ST×3	Kill	Tennille Gonder	set Marly Pratt	+0.6
3	3-0	WEB ST	WEB ST×3	Kill	Rose Moore	set Marly Pratt	+0.5
4	3-1	WEB ST	NEVADA	Kill	Paige Thies	set Summer Suppik	+0.4
5	4-1	NEVADA	WEB ST	Kill	Rose Moore	set Addison Eastwood	+0.4
6	4-2	WEB ST	NEVADA	Kill	Malia Pilimai	set Adriana Dorn	+0.4
7	5-2	NEVADA	WEB ST	Kill	Ziya Munyer	set Addison Eastwood	+0.4
8	6-2	WEB ST	WEB ST	Attack err	Malia Pilimai	blk Addison Eastwood, Ziya Munyer	+0.5
9	6-3	WEB ST	NEVADA	Serve err	WEB ST server		+0.3
10	7-3	NEVADA	WEB ST	Kill	Tennille Gonder	set Addison Eastwood	+0.4
11	8-3	WEB ST	WEB ST	Kill	Lexie Carlson	set Addison Eastwood	+0.4
12	8-4	WEB ST	NEVADA×5	Kill	Ceren Sert	set Adriana Dorn	+0.3
13	8-5	NEVADA	NEVADA×5	Kill	Paige Thies	set Adriana Dorn	+0.5
14	8-6	NEVADA	NEVADA×5	Attack err	Lexie Carlson	blk Ceren Sert, Adriana Dorn	+0.6
15	8-7	NEVADA	NEVADA×5	Kill	Paige Thies	set Summer Suppik	+0.7
16	8-8	NEVADA	NEVADA×5	Attack err	Lexie Carlson		+0.8
17	9-8	NEVADA	WEB ST	Attack err	Paige Thies		+0.6
18	10-8	WEB ST	WEB ST	Ace	WEB ST server	aced Summer Suppik	+0.8
19	10-9	WEB ST	NEVADA	Kill	Paige Thies	set Adriana Dorn	+0.6
20	11-9	NEVADA	WEB ST	Kill	Stacia Barker	set Addison Eastwood	+0.6
21	11-10	WEB ST	NEVADA	Serve err	WEB ST server		+0.6
22	12-10	NEVADA	WEB ST	Kill	Rose Moore	set Addison Eastwood	+0.6
23	12-11	WEB ST	NEVADA	Kill	Madison Long	set Adriana Dorn	+0.6
24	13-11	NEVADA	WEB ST×4	Kill	Stacia Barker	set Addison Eastwood	+0.6
25	14-11	WEB ST	WEB ST×4	Attack err	Madison Long		+0.7
26	15-11	WEB ST	WEB ST×4	Attack err	Paige Thies		+0.6
27	16-11	WEB ST	WEB ST×4	Kill	Tennille Gonder	set Addison Eastwood	+0.5
28	16-12	WEB ST	NEVADA	Kill	Malia Pilimai	set Adriana Dorn	+0.3
29	17-12	NEVADA	WEB ST	Kill	Rose Moore	set Addison Eastwood	+0.3
30	17-13	WEB ST	NEVADA	Kill	Ceren Sert	set Adriana Dorn	+0.3
31	18-13	NEVADA	WEB ST	Kill	Ziya Munyer	set Addison Eastwood	+0.3
32	19-13	WEB ST	WEB ST	Kill	Ziya Munyer	set Morgan Pratt	+0.3
33	19-14	WEB ST	NEVADA	Kill	Ceren Sert	set Adriana Dorn	+0.1
34	20-14	NEVADA	WEB ST×3	Kill	Ziya Munyer	set Morgan Pratt	+0.2
35	21-14	WEB ST	WEB ST×3	Attack err	Paige Thies		+0.2
36	22-14	WEB ST	WEB ST×3	Ace	WEB ST server	aced Summer Suppik	+0.1
37	22-15	WEB ST	NEVADA	Kill	Paige Thies	set Adriana Dorn	+0.0
38	23-15	NEVADA	WEB ST	Kill	Lexie Carlson	set Marly Pratt	+0.0
39	23-16	WEB ST	NEVADA	Kill	Paige Thies	set Adriana Dorn	+0.0
40	24-16	NEVADA	WEB ST	Kill	Rose Moore	set Addison Eastwood	+0.0
41	25-16	WEB ST	WEB ST	Kill	Sophia Sparrow	set Addison Eastwood	+0.0

Score shown after each rally, Weber St. first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.