Final · 4 setsFri, Sep 18, 2026

Southern California def. UC Davis 3–1

Southern California beat visiting UC Davis 3-1 (25-16, 26-24, 30-32, 28-26) on Fri, Sep 18, 2026. Adonia Faumuina led Southern California with 14 kills; UC Davis' Brooke Hibino had a match-high 17.

Data through · final Sep 18

Set1234Sets
UC DAV162432261
USC252630283

Win probability

Southern California above 50 · UC Davis below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100+11.7% UC DAVrally 207 · set 4

Biggest swing: 11.7% to UC Davis — set 4, UC DAV 24-23 USC. Attack error by Mia Tvrdy. USC win probability 83% → 71%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

UC DAV 32.1%67.9% USC

UC Davis wins

3-0
6.3%
3-1
11.4%
3-2
14.4%

Southern California wins

3-0
21.8%
3-1
26.1%
3-2
20.0%
UC DAV break %
38.1% vs this opp
USC break %
41.6% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Mia TvrdyAttack error+11.7%

    Attack error by Mia Tvrdy

    Set 4 · UC DAV 24-23 USC · UC DAV 17% → 29%

  2. 02

    Brooke Hibino stuffed by Mia Tvrdy & Milly McGee

    Set 4 · UC DAV 25-26 USC · USC 79% → 90%

  3. 03
    Layli OstovarKill+10.1%

    Kill by Layli Ostovar (set by Milly McGee)

    Set 4 · UC DAV 26-28 USC · USC 90% → 100%

  4. 04
    Brooke HibinoKill+8.4%

    Kill by Brooke Hibino (set by Ximena Cordero Barr)

    Set 4 · UC DAV 23-23 USC · UC DAV 9% → 17%

  5. 05
    Ally ChandlerAttack error+7.9%

    Attack error by Ally Chandler

    Set 4 · UC DAV 24-24 USC · USC 71% → 79%

  6. 06
    Southern CaliforniaService error+7.9%

    Southern California service error

    Set 4 · UC DAV 25-24 USC · UC DAV 21% → 29%

  7. 07
    Brooke HibinoAttack error+7.9%

    Attack error by Brooke Hibino

    Set 4 · UC DAV 25-25 USC · USC 71% → 79%

  8. 08

    Brooke Hibino stuffed by Mia Tvrdy & Lilli Etter

    Set 2 · UC DAV 23-24 USC · USC 79% → 86%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
411843.07020580010.511.5
49421.2380050012211
47322.182000010007
4218.1253827110010.54.5
4000–1021930000
1123-.33300000010.51.5
417961.13110472254.521.5
43210.100000101436
4000–3112000001
4000–101000000
1000–000000000
1000–000000000
Team totals5029168.125463256664141198
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
414741.171001160010.514.5
410318.3890011004212
48340.12501114002110
4114.00039121600213
36210.40000230031.57.5
33518-.111011300426
45112.333123520007
4000–006910000
3000–003100000
2102.500011000213
2000–20000010.50.5
1000–000000000
1000–000000000
1000–000000000
Team totals4822145.179426216830199.5109

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 4 UC DAV · USC 4

Set 1

16-25

Longest run 2 UC DAVUSC 4

Set 2

24-26

Longest run 3 UC DAVUSC 3

Set 3

32-30

Longest run 3 UC DAVUSC 3

Set 4

26-28

Longest run 4 UC DAVUSC 3

Bars above the line = Southern California leads, below = UC Davis leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

UC Davis

SlotSideout %Break %
1
62%13/21
39%7/18
2
52%12/23
28%5/18
3
61%11/18
27%4/15
4
79%11/14
45%9/20
5
59%10/17
31%5/16
6
60%9/15
17%2/12
All
61%66/108
32%32/99

Southern California

SlotSideout %Break %
1
72%13/18
45%9/20
2
76%13/17
43%10/23
3
48%11/23
29%5/17
4
69%11/16
42%8/19
5
83%10/12
33%5/15
6
69%9/13
36%5/14
All
68%67/99
39%42/108

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

207 rallies

#UC DAV-USCSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
10-1UC DAVUSCServe errUC Davis+1.5
21-1USCUC DAVServe errSouthern California+1.6
31-2UC DAVUSC×4KillLondon Wijayset Lilli Etter+1.5
41-3USCUSC×4Attack errAlly Chandler+2.2
51-4USCUSC×4KillLeah Ford+2.1
61-5USCUSC×4AceSouthern Californiaaced Rachel Dunagan+1.8
72-5USCUC DAVKillIsabella Umpierreset Mia Starr+1.1
82-6UC DAVUSC×3Serve errUC Davis+1.2
92-7USCUSC×3Attack errIsabella Umpierre+1.6
102-8USCUSC×3Attack errAlly Chandler+1.3
113-8USCUC DAVServe errSouthern California+0.7
123-9UC DAVUSCKillAdonia Faumuinaset Lilli Etter+0.8
134-9USCUC DAVKillMia Starrset Adonia Faumuina+0.7
144-10UC DAVUSCKillMia Tvrdyset Lilli Etter+0.8
155-10USCUC DAVAttack errQuinn Loper+0.7
165-11UC DAVUSCServe errUC Davis+0.8
175-12USCUSCKillLeah Fordset Lilli Etter+0.9
186-12USCUC DAVServe errSouthern California+0.5
196-13UC DAVUSCKillQuinn Loperset Lilli Etter+0.6
206-14USCUSCBlockedIsabella Umpierreblk Quinn Loper, Leah Ford+0.6
217-14USCUC DAVKillDemi Coleset Mia Starr+0.3
228-14UC DAVUC DAVBad setLilli Etter+0.6
238-15UC DAVUSCKillAdonia Faumuinaset Lilli Etter+0.6
249-15USCUC DAVServe errSouthern California+0.4
259-16UC DAVUSCKillLondon Wijayset Lilli Etter+0.5
2610-16USCUC DAVKillMia Starrset Rachel Dunagan+0.4
2711-16UC DAVUC DAVBlockedAdonia Faumuinablk Ally Chandler, Brooke Hibino+0.8
2811-17UC DAVUSCKillMia Tvrdyset Lilli Etter+0.8
2911-18USCUSCAttack errBrooke Hibino+0.7
3012-18USCUC DAVServe errSouthern California+0.3
3112-19UC DAVUSCKillMia Tvrdyset Lilli Etter+0.4
3213-19USCUC DAVKillBrooke Hibinoset Isabella Umpierre+0.2
3313-20UC DAVUSCKillQuinn Loperset Lilli Etter+0.4
3413-21USCUSCAttack errDemi Cole+0.3
3514-21USCUC DAVBlockedQuinn Loperblk Demi Cole, Brooke Hibino+0.1
3615-21UC DAVUC DAVKillIsabella Umpierreset Mia Starr+0.2
3715-22UC DAVUSC×3KillLeah Fordset Lilli Etter+0.3
3815-23USCUSC×3BlockedDemi Coleblk Leah Ford, Quinn Loper+0.1
3915-24USCUSC×3Bad setMia Starr·
4016-24USCUC DAVKillGianna Boganset Laela Burgess·
4116-25UC DAVUSCKillAdonia Faumuinaset Lilli Etter·
Set 2
10-1USCUSCAttack errBrooke Hibino+1.9
21-1USCUC DAVServe errSouthern California+1.3
31-2UC DAVUSCServe errUC Davis+1.3
42-2USCUC DAVServe errSouthern California+1.3
52-3UC DAVUSCKillLeah Fordset Lilli Etter+1.3
63-3USCUC DAVServe errSouthern California+1.4
74-3UC DAVUC DAVKillIsabella Umpierreset Mia Starr+2.2
84-4UC DAVUSCKillLondon Wijayset Lilli Etter+1.4
94-5USCUSCAttack errBrooke Hibino+2.1
105-5USCUC DAVBlockedLilli Etterblk Brooke Hibino+1.4
116-5UC DAVUC DAVAceUC Davisaced Layli Ostovar+2.3
126-6UC DAVUSCAttack errMia Starr+1.5
137-6USCUC DAVKillBrooke Hibinoset Mia Starr+1.6
147-7UC DAVUSCServe errUC Davis+1.5
158-7USCUC DAVServe errSouthern California+1.6
169-7UC DAVUC DAVAttack errLeah Ford+2.5
179-8UC DAVUSCKillAdonia Faumuinaset Lilli Etter+1.6
189-9USCUSCKillAdonia Faumuinaset Lilli Etter+2.5
1910-9USCUC DAVAttack errLondon Wijay+1.8
2010-10UC DAVUSCServe errUC Davis+1.7
2110-11USCUSCAceSouthern Californiaaced Brooke Hibino+2.5
2211-11USCUC DAVKillAlly Chandlerset Mia Starr+1.7
2311-12UC DAVUSCKillAdonia Faumuinaset Lilli Etter+1.7
2412-12USCUC DAVKillAlly Chandlerset Mia Starr+1.8
2513-12UC DAVUC DAVBlockedAdonia Faumuinablk Allie Caldwell, Brooke Hibino+2.9
2613-13UC DAVUSCServe errUC Davis+1.9
2714-13USCUC DAVKillBrooke Hibinoset Mia Starr+2.0
2815-13UC DAVUC DAVAceUC Davisaced Taylor Deckert+3.2
2915-14UC DAVUSCKillMia Tvrdyset Lilli Etter+1.9
3015-15USCUSCAttack errBrooke Hibino+3.1
3116-15USCUC DAVKillBrooke Hibinoset Mia Starr+2.3
3216-16UC DAVUSCBlockedIsabella Umpierreblk Mia Tvrdy, Quinn Loper+2.1
3317-16USCUC DAVServe errSouthern California+2.4
3417-17UC DAVUSCBlockedGianna Boganblk Leah Ford, Quinn Loper, Lilli Etter+2.3
3518-17USCUC DAVKillGianna Boganset Mia Starr+2.6
3619-17UC DAVUC DAVAttack errAdonia Faumuina+3.9
3719-18UC DAVUSC×3KillLondon Wijayset Lilli Etter+2.2
3819-19USCUSC×3Attack errAlly Chandler+4.0
3919-20USCUSC×3KillLondon Wijayset Lilli Etter+4.2
4020-20USCUC DAVKillAlly Chandlerset Mia Starr+2.8
4120-21UC DAVUSCAttack errLondon Wijay+3.0
4220-22USCUSCAttack errIsabella Umpierre+4.3
4321-22USCUC DAV×3KillAlly Chandlerset Mia Starr+2.2
4422-22UC DAVUC DAV×3BlockedMia Tvrdyblk Allie Caldwell+5.1
4523-22UC DAVUC DAV×3Attack errLayli Ostovar+6.6
4623-23UC DAVUSCServe errUC Davis+4.1
4723-24USCUSCBlockedBrooke Hibinoblk Mia Tvrdy, Lilli Etter+7.7
4824-24USCUC DAVServe errSouthern California+5.0
4924-25UC DAVUSCServe errUC Davis+5.0
5024-26USCUSCAceSouthern Californiaaced Rachel Dunagan+7.1
Set 3
10-1UC DAVUSCServe errUC Davis+0.7
21-1USCUC DAVBlockedQuinn Loperblk Allie Caldwell, Brooke Hibino+0.8
32-1UC DAVUC DAVKillIsabella Umpierreset Ximena Cordero Barr+1.2
42-2UC DAVUSCKillLeah Fordset Lilli Etter+0.8
53-2USCUC DAV×3KillAllie Caldwellset Mia Starr+0.8
64-2UC DAVUC DAV×3KillIsabella Umpierreset Mia Starr+1.3
75-2UC DAVUC DAV×3AceUC Davisaced Layli Ostovar+1.3
85-3UC DAVUSCKillAdonia Faumuinaset Lilli Etter+0.8
95-4USCUSCKillAdonia Faumuina+1.3
106-4USCUC DAVKillAlly Chandlerset Mia Starr+0.9
116-5UC DAVUSCAttack errGianna Bogan+0.8
127-5USCUC DAVKillGianna Boganset Mia Starr+0.9
138-5UC DAVUC DAVBlockedLondon Wijayblk Mia Starr, Ally Chandler+1.4
148-6UC DAVUSC×3KillMia Tvrdyset Lilli Etter+0.8
158-7USCUSC×3KillMia Tvrdyset Lilli Etter+1.4
168-8USCUSC×3Attack errIsabella Umpierre+1.4
179-8USCUC DAVKillBrooke Hibinoset Mia Starr+1.0
189-9UC DAVUSC×3Attack errAllie Caldwell+0.9
199-10USCUSC×3KillQuinn Loperset Lilli Etter+1.4
209-11USCUSC×3KillLilli Etterset Mia Starr+1.4
2110-11USCUC DAVServe errSouthern California+0.9
2211-11UC DAVUC DAVKillIsabella Umpierreset Mia Starr+1.5
2311-12UC DAVUSCServe errUC Davis+1.0
2412-12USCUC DAVBlockedQuinn Loperblk Allie Caldwell, Brooke Hibino+1.0
2512-13UC DAVUSCKillLeah Fordset Lilli Etter+1.1
2613-13USCUC DAVKillBrooke Hibinoset Mia Starr+1.1
2714-13UC DAVUC DAVBlockedLeah Fordblk Ally Chandler+1.8
2814-14UC DAVUSC×3Serve errUC Davis+1.1
2914-15USCUSC×3KillMia Tvrdy+1.8
3014-16USCUSC×3KillMia Tvrdyset Lilli Etter+1.7
3115-16USCUC DAVKillAlly Chandlerset Mia Starr+1.0
3215-17UC DAVUSCKillAdonia Faumuinaset Lilli Etter+1.1
3316-17USCUC DAVServe errSouthern California+1.1
3416-18UC DAVUSCKillLondon Wijayset Layli Ostovar+1.2
3516-19USCUSCKillAdonia Faumuinaset Lilli Etter+1.6
3617-19USCUC DAVKillAlly Chandlerset Mia Starr+0.8
3718-19UC DAVUC DAVBlockedMia Tvrdyblk Brooke Hibino+1.7
3818-20UC DAVUSCServe errUC Davis+1.4
3919-20USCUC DAVKillBrooke Hibinoset Mia Starr+1.2
4020-20UC DAVUC DAVAttack errLondon Wijay+2.4
4120-21UC DAVUSCServe errUC Davis+1.8
4221-21USCUC DAV×3KillIsabella Umpierreset Mia Starr+1.8
4322-21UC DAVUC DAV×3BlockedAdonia Faumuinablk Allie Caldwell, Isabella Umpierre+3.3
4423-21UC DAVUC DAV×3Attack errQuinn Loper+3.3
4523-22UC DAVUSCServe errUC Davis+1.5
4623-23USCUSCAceSouthern Californiaaced Brooke Hibino+3.7
4724-23USCUC DAVServe errSouthern California+3.2
4824-24UC DAVUSCBlockedIsabella Umpierreblk Taliyah Hanks, London Wijay+3.2
4924-25USCUSCAceSouthern Californiaaced Gianna Bogan+4.5
5025-25USCUC DAVServe errSouthern California+3.0
5125-26UC DAVUSCServe errUC Davis+3.0
5226-26USCUC DAVKillGianna Boganset Mia Starr+3.0
5326-27UC DAVUSCKillMia Tvrdyset Lilli Etter+3.0
5427-27USCUC DAVKillBrooke Hibinoset Mia Starr+3.0
5527-28UC DAVUSCServe errUC Davis+3.0
5628-28USCUC DAVServe errSouthern California+3.0
5729-28UC DAVUC DAVKillBrooke Hibinoset Mia Starr+4.8
5829-29UC DAVUSCKillLayli Ostovarset Lilli Etter+3.2
5930-29USCUC DAVKillBrooke Hibinoset Mia Starr+3.2
6030-30UC DAVUSCServe errUC Davis+3.2
6131-30USCUC DAVKillIsabella Umpierreset Mia Starr+3.2
6232-30UC DAVUC DAVKillGianna Boganset Mia Starr+5.2
Set 4
10-1USCUSCAttack errIsabella Umpierre+2.8
21-1USCUC DAVKillAllie Caldwellset Mia Starr+1.9
31-2UC DAVUSC×3Serve errUC Davis+1.8
41-3USCUSC×3BlockedAllie Caldwellblk Taliyah Hanks, London Wijay+2.7
51-4USCUSC×3Attack errIsabella Umpierre+2.5
62-4USCUC DAVAttack errAdonia Faumuina+1.6
72-5UC DAVUSCKillLondon Wijayset Lilli Etter+1.6
83-5USCUC DAVKillBrooke Hibinoset Mia Starr+1.6
93-6UC DAVUSCBlockedGianna Boganblk Adonia Faumuina, Mia Tvrdy+1.7
104-6USCUC DAV×3KillAlly Chandlerset Mia Starr+1.6
115-6UC DAVUC DAV×3KillBrooke Hibinoset Mia Starr+2.8
126-6UC DAVUC DAV×3Attack errAdonia Faumuina+3.1
136-7UC DAVUSCServe errUC Davis+2.1
147-7USCUC DAVServe errSouthern California+2.2
157-8UC DAVUSCKillAdonia Faumuinaset Lilli Etter+2.2
167-9USCUSCKillAdonia Faumuinaset Lilli Etter+3.1
178-9USCUC DAVServe errSouthern California+2.0
188-10UC DAVUSCServe errUC Davis+2.1
199-10USCUC DAVAttack errAdonia Faumuina+2.1
209-11UC DAVUSC×3KillLayli Ostovarset Lilli Etter+2.2
219-12USCUSC×3Attack errBrooke Hibino+3.0
229-13USCUSC×3KillTaliyah Hanksset Lilli Etter+2.5
2310-13USCUC DAVServe errSouthern California+1.4
2410-14UC DAVUSCKillLondon Wijayset Lilli Etter+1.7
2511-14USCUC DAVKillGianna Boganset Isabella Umpierre+1.4
2612-14UC DAVUC DAVKillGianna Boganset Mia Starr+2.8
2712-15UC DAVUSCServe errUC Davis+2.1
2813-15USCUC DAVKillIsabella Umpierreset Mia Starr+1.9
2913-16UC DAVUSCKillMia Tvrdyset Lilli Etter+2.2
3013-17USCUSCKillAdonia Faumuinaset Lilli Etter+2.7
3114-17USCUC DAVKillBrooke Hibinoset Brooke Hibino+1.4
3215-17UC DAVUC DAVKillBrooke Hibinoset Mia Starr+2.9
3315-18UC DAVUSCServe errUC Davis+2.4
3416-18USCUC DAV×3KillIsabella Umpierreset Brooke Hibino+2.0
3517-18UC DAVUC DAV×3Bad setLilli Etter+4.0
3618-18UC DAVUC DAV×3KillBrooke Hibinoset Ximena Cordero Barr+5.1
3718-19UC DAVUSC×3Serve errUC Davis+3.6
3818-20USCUSC×3AceSouthern Californiaaced Rachel Dunagan+5.1
3918-21USCUSC×3KillLayli Ostovarset Mia Starr+4.1
4019-21USCUC DAVKillAllie Caldwellset Mia Starr+1.9
4119-22UC DAVUSCServe errUC Davis+2.8
4220-22USCUC DAVKillIsabella Umpierreset Mia Starr+1.8
4320-23UC DAVUSCKillAdonia Faumuinaset Lilli Etter+2.9
4421-23USCUC DAV×4Serve errSouthern California+1.6
4522-23UC DAVUC DAV×4KillAlly Chandlerset Mia Starr+4.7
4623-23UC DAVUC DAV×4KillBrooke Hibinoset Ximena Cordero Barr+8.4
4724-23UC DAVUC DAV×4Attack errMia Tvrdy+11.7
4824-24UC DAVUSCAttack errAlly Chandler+7.9
4925-24USCUC DAVServe errSouthern California+7.9
5025-25UC DAVUSCAttack errBrooke Hibino+7.9
5125-26USCUSCBlockedBrooke Hibinoblk Mia Tvrdy, Milly McGee+11.1
5226-26USCUC DAVKillBrooke Hibinoset Mia Starr+7.2
5326-27UC DAVUSCKillLayli Ostovarset Milly McGee+7.2
5426-28USCUSCKillLayli Ostovarset Milly McGee+10.1

Score shown after each rally, UC Davis first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).