FinalThu, Sep 3, 2026

AwayUAC-

0:3

HomeCUSA

Missouri St. def. Little Rock 3–0

(25-20, 25-18, 26-24)

Set	1	2	3*	Sets
UALR	20	18	24	0
MO ST	25	25	26	3

* Set 3: the NCAA play-by-play has a gap or score correction here, so this set is left out of the rotation splits.

RallyIQ model

Win probability

MO ST above 50 · UALR below

Biggest swing: 3.4% to Missouri St. — set 1, UALR 17-18 MO ST. Avery Fearnley stuffed by Hannah Gardner. MO ST win probability 76% → 79%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

UALR 21.4%78.6% MO ST

Little Rock wins

3-0

3.6%

3-1

7.2%

3-2

10.6%

Missouri St. wins

3-0

30.2%

3-1

29.8%

3-2

18.6%

UALR break %: 38.9% vs this opp
MO ST break %: 44.9% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Avery FearnleyAttack error+3.4%
Avery Fearnley stuffed by Hannah Gardner
Set 1 · UALR 17-18 MO ST · MO ST 76% → 79%
02
Rilynn FinleyAttack error+3.1%
Rilynn Finley stuffed by Alyssa Boyte & Bella Cherry
Set 1 · UALR 15-14 MO ST · UALR 23% → 26%
03
MO ST serverAce+3.1%
Missouri St. ace on Team
Set 1 · UALR 17-19 MO ST · MO ST 79% → 82%
04
Hannah GardnerAttack error+2.8%
Hannah Gardner stuffed by Lorena Keselj
Set 1 · UALR 12-9 MO ST · UALR 27% → 30%
05
Lovina TeelKill+2.7%
Kill by Lovina Teel (set by Lily King)
Set 1 · UALR 11-9 MO ST · UALR 25% → 27%
06
Rilynn FinleyKill+2.7%
Kill by Rilynn Finley (set by Hannah Gardner)
Set 3 · UALR 24-26 MO ST · MO ST 97% → 100%
07
Ashlyn BlazerKill+2.6%
Kill by Ashlyn Blazer (set by Hannah Gardner)
Set 1 · UALR 12-12 MO ST · MO ST 74% → 77%
08
Avery FearnleyAttack error+2.6%
Attack error by Avery Fearnley
Set 1 · UALR 18-21 MO ST · MO ST 83% → 85%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Little Rockaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
14Avery FearnleyOH	3	14	5	28	.321	1	1	6	1	0	0	0	14
7Lovina TeelOH	3	13	5	30	.267	0	2	4	1	0	0	0	13
12Alyssa BoyteMB	3	5	3	12	.167	0	1	0	0	0	3	1.5	6.5
13Morgan CreerOH	3	2	3	15	-.067	0	0	1	0	1	2	2	4
17Lorena KeseljMB	3	0	1	4	-.250	0	1	2	0	1	1	1.5	1.5
5Lily KingS	3	1	0	1	1.000	16	1	4	0	0	0	0	1
8Bella CherryOH	3	9	4	21	.238	1	0	0	0	0	2	1	10
4Alayna VaethS	3	0	1	1	-1.000	19	1	4	0	0	0	0	0
2Skyler PerezL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	5	0	22	0	0	0	0	0
6Victoria FontenotL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	1	0	5	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		44	22	112	.196	43	7	48	3	2	8	6	62

Missouri St.home

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
18Hannah GardnerS	3	8	1	22	.318	18	1	2	3	1	0	1	10
12Hannah RedrowMB	3	5	1	11	.364	1	0	0	0	1	4	3	8
1Chloe JuddMB	3	6	1	10	.500	0	0	2	1	0	1	0.5	6.5
13Ashlyn BlazerOH	3	4	3	19	.053	0	0	1	4	0	1	0.5	4.5
3Kya JohnsonDS	3	0	0	0	–	1	2	0	8	0	0	0	2
2Halle RillieS	3	1	0	2	.500	15	0	0	6	0	0	0	1
16Rilynn FinleyOH	3	14	1	28	.464	1	0	0	2	1	3	2.5	16.5
7Lexi WeinbergOPP	3	5	1	14	.286	0	0	0	2	1	1	1.5	6.5
8Brooke EslingerDS	3	0	0	0	–	2	0	2	11	0	0	0	0
10Riley OurthDS	3	0	0	0	–	2	0	1	6	0	0	0	0
4Jenna WaltersOH	1	0	1	3	-.333	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		43	9	109	.312	40	3	8	43	4	10	9	76

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 3 UALR · MO ST 5

Set 1

20-25

Longest run 3 UALRMO ST 5

Set 2

18-25

Longest run 2 UALRMO ST 3

Set 3*

24-26

Longest run 2 UALRMO ST 2

Bars above the line = Missouri St. leads, below = Little Rock leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Little Rock

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	46%6/13	38%3/8
2	56%5/9	45%5/11
3	44%4/9	0%0/5
4	57%4/7	20%1/5
5	100%4/4	20%1/5
6	57%4/7	20%1/5
All	55%27/49	28%11/39

Missouri St.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	86%6/7	50%5/10
2	55%6/11	45%5/11
3	100%4/4	64%7/11
4	67%4/6	43%3/7
5	80%4/5	20%1/5
6	67%4/6	20%1/5
All	72%28/39	45%22/49

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (2 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

138 rallies

Rally log

#	UALR-MO ST	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	0-1	UALR	MO ST	Serve err	UALR server		+1.2
2	1-1	MO ST	UALR×3	Serve err	MO ST server		+1.3
3	2-1	UALR	UALR×3	Attack err	Ashlyn Blazer	blk Morgan Creer, Lorena Keselj	+2.0
4	3-1	UALR	UALR×3	Kill	Lovina Teel	set Lily King	+2.1
5	3-2	UALR	MO ST	Serve err	UALR server		+1.4
6	4-2	MO ST	UALR	Serve err	MO ST server		+1.6
7	4-3	UALR	MO ST	Serve err	UALR server		+1.5
8	4-4	MO ST	MO ST	Attack err	Morgan Creer		+2.0
9	5-4	MO ST	UALR	Serve err	MO ST server		+1.6
10	5-5	UALR	MO ST	Kill	Lexi Weinberg	set Hannah Gardner	+1.5
11	5-6	MO ST	MO ST	Attack err	Bella Cherry	blk Chloe Judd, Lexi Weinberg	+2.0
12	6-6	MO ST	UALR	Attack err	Lexi Weinberg	blk Bella Cherry, Alyssa Boyte	+1.5
13	6-7	UALR	MO ST	Attack err	Avery Fearnley		+1.5
14	7-7	MO ST	UALR	Kill	Bella Cherry	set Alayna Vaeth	+1.6
15	7-8	UALR	MO ST	Kill	Rilynn Finley	set Halle Rillie	+1.5
16	8-8	MO ST	UALR	Kill	Bella Cherry	set Alayna Vaeth	+1.6
17	9-8	UALR	UALR	Attack err	Ashlyn Blazer		+2.4
18	9-9	UALR	MO ST	Kill	Hannah Gardner	set Kya Johnson	+1.7
19	10-9	MO ST	UALR×3	Kill	Avery Fearnley	set Lily King	+1.9
20	11-9	UALR	UALR×3	Kill	Lovina Teel	set Lily King	+2.7
21	12-9	UALR	UALR×3	Attack err	Hannah Gardner	blk Lorena Keselj	+2.8
22	12-10	UALR	MO ST×4	Kill	Ashlyn Blazer	set Halle Rillie	+1.7
23	12-11	MO ST	MO ST×4	Attack err	Lorena Keselj		+2.6
24	12-12	MO ST	MO ST×4	Kill	Ashlyn Blazer	set Hannah Gardner	+2.6
25	12-13	MO ST	MO ST×4	Attack err	Lovina Teel		+2.6
26	13-13	MO ST	UALR	Kill	Lovina Teel	set Lily King	+1.9
27	13-14	UALR	MO ST	Kill	Lexi Weinberg	set Hannah Gardner	+1.9
28	14-14	MO ST	UALR	Kill	Lily King	set Avery Fearnley	+2.0
29	15-14	UALR	UALR	Attack err	Rilynn Finley	blk Alyssa Boyte, Bella Cherry	+3.1
30	15-15	UALR	MO ST	Attack err	Lovina Teel		+2.1
31	16-15	MO ST	UALR	Serve err	MO ST server		+2.4
32	16-16	UALR	MO ST	Kill	Lexi Weinberg	set Hannah Gardner	+2.3
33	17-16	MO ST	UALR	Kill	Avery Fearnley	set Alayna Vaeth	+2.6
34	17-17	UALR	MO ST×3	Kill	Rilynn Finley	set Halle Rillie	+2.4
35	17-18	MO ST	MO ST×3	Attack err	Avery Fearnley	blk Hannah Gardner	+3.4
36	17-19	MO ST	MO ST×3	Ace	MO ST server	aced Team	+3.1
37	18-19	MO ST	UALR	Kill	Bella Cherry	set Alayna Vaeth	+2.1
38	18-20	UALR	MO ST×5	Kill	Chloe Judd	set Halle Rillie	+2.4
39	18-21	MO ST	MO ST×5	Attack err	Avery Fearnley		+2.6
40	18-22	MO ST	MO ST×5	Kill	Hannah Gardner	set Halle Rillie	+1.8
41	18-23	MO ST	MO ST×5	Kill	Rilynn Finley	set Halle Rillie	+0.9
42	18-24	MO ST	MO ST×5	Kill	Hannah Redrow	set Halle Rillie	+0.3
43	19-24	MO ST	UALR	Kill	Avery Fearnley	set Skyler Perez	+0.0
44	20-24	UALR	UALR	Kill	Morgan Creer	set Lily King	+0.2
45	20-25	UALR	MO ST	Kill	Hannah Redrow	set Halle Rillie	+0.3
Set 2
1	0-1	MO ST	MO ST	Attack err	Lovina Teel	blk Hannah Redrow, Rilynn Finley	+1.3
2	0-2	MO ST	MO ST	Attack err	Lovina Teel	blk Rilynn Finley, Hannah Redrow	+1.2
3	1-2	MO ST	UALR	Kill	Bella Cherry	set Alayna Vaeth	+0.9
4	1-3	UALR	MO ST	Kill	Lexi Weinberg	set Rilynn Finley	+0.9
5	2-3	MO ST	UALR	Kill	Alyssa Boyte	set Alayna Vaeth	+0.9
6	2-4	UALR	MO ST×3	Kill	Chloe Judd	set Hannah Gardner	+0.9
7	2-5	MO ST	MO ST×3	Kill	Rilynn Finley	set Halle Rillie	+1.2
8	2-6	MO ST	MO ST×3	Kill	Rilynn Finley	set Riley Ourth	+1.0
9	3-6	MO ST	UALR	Kill	Bella Cherry	set Alayna Vaeth	+0.7
10	3-7	UALR	MO ST×3	Kill	Rilynn Finley	set Halle Rillie	+0.7
11	3-8	MO ST	MO ST×3	Ace	MO ST server	aced Avery Fearnley	+0.8
12	3-9	MO ST	MO ST×3	Kill	Ashlyn Blazer		+0.7
13	4-9	MO ST	UALR	Kill	Avery Fearnley	set Lily King	+0.4
14	4-10	UALR	MO ST	Kill	Halle Rillie	set Halle Rillie	+0.5
15	5-10	MO ST	UALR	Kill	Lovina Teel	set Lily King	+0.4
16	5-11	UALR	MO ST	Kill	Hannah Gardner	set Halle Rillie	+0.5
17	5-12	MO ST	MO ST	Kill	Ashlyn Blazer	set Hannah Gardner	+0.5
18	6-12	MO ST	UALR	Kill	Alyssa Boyte	set Lily King	+0.3
19	7-12	UALR	UALR	Kill	Alyssa Boyte	set Alayna Vaeth	+0.5
20	7-13	UALR	MO ST	Kill	Hannah Redrow	set Hannah Gardner	+0.5
21	7-14	MO ST	MO ST	Attack err	Alyssa Boyte	blk Hannah Redrow, Rilynn Finley	+0.5
22	8-14	MO ST	UALR	Kill	Avery Fearnley	set Alayna Vaeth	+0.3
23	8-15	UALR	MO ST	Kill	Hannah Redrow	set Hannah Gardner	+0.3
24	8-16	MO ST	MO ST	Attack err	Alyssa Boyte		+0.3
25	9-16	MO ST	UALR	Kill	Bella Cherry	set Alayna Vaeth	+0.1
26	9-17	UALR	MO ST	Kill	Chloe Judd	set Hannah Gardner	+0.2
27	9-18	MO ST	MO ST	Attack err	Alayna Vaeth		+0.2
28	10-18	MO ST	UALR	Kill	Bella Cherry	set Alayna Vaeth	+0.1
29	10-19	UALR	MO ST	Kill	Chloe Judd	set Halle Rillie	+0.1
30	11-19	MO ST	UALR	Kill	Avery Fearnley	set Lily King	+0.1
31	12-19	UALR	UALR	Kill	Lovina Teel	set Lily King	+0.1
32	12-20	UALR	MO ST	Kill	Hannah Gardner	set Brooke Eslinger	+0.1
33	13-20	MO ST	UALR	Kill	Lovina Teel	set Skyler Perez	+0.1
34	14-20	UALR	UALR	Attack err	Ashlyn Blazer	blk Alyssa Boyte, Morgan Creer	+0.2
35	14-21	UALR	MO ST	Kill	Hannah Gardner	set Halle Rillie	+0.2
36	15-21	MO ST	UALR	Serve err	MO ST server		+0.1
37	16-21	UALR	UALR	Bad set	Hannah Gardner		+0.3
38	16-22	UALR	MO ST	Serve err	UALR server		+0.3
39	17-22	MO ST	UALR	Kill	Bella Cherry	set Alayna Vaeth	+0.1
40	17-23	UALR	MO ST	Attack err	Bella Cherry		+0.3
41	18-23	MO ST	UALR	Kill	Avery Fearnley	set Bella Cherry	+0.1
42	18-24	UALR	MO ST	Attack err	Avery Fearnley	blk Lexi Weinberg	+0.2
43	18-25	MO ST	MO ST	Attack err	Bella Cherry		+0.0
Set 3
1	0-1	UALR	MO ST	Kill	Rilynn Finley	set Riley Ourth	+0.5
2	1-1	MO ST	UALR	Serve err	MO ST server		+0.5
3	1-2	UALR	MO ST	Serve err	UALR server		+0.5
4	2-2	MO ST	UALR	Kill	Alyssa Boyte	set Alayna Vaeth	+0.6
5	2-3	UALR	MO ST	Kill	Chloe Judd	set Halle Rillie	+0.5
6	3-3	MO ST	UALR	Kill	Avery Fearnley	set Alayna Vaeth	+0.6
7	3-4	UALR	MO ST	Attack err	Avery Fearnley		+0.5
8	4-4	MO ST	UALR	Serve err	MO ST server		+0.6
9	5-4	UALR	UALR	Kill	Lovina Teel	set Skyler Perez	+0.9
10	5-5	UALR	MO ST	Kill	Hannah Gardner	set Hannah Redrow	+0.6
11	6-5	MO ST	UALR	Kill	Lovina Teel	set Lily King	+0.7
12	7-5	UALR	UALR	Kill	Lovina Teel	set Lily King	+1.0
13	7-6	UALR	MO ST	Serve err	UALR server		+0.6
14	7-7	MO ST	MO ST	Kill	Rilynn Finley	set Hannah Gardner	+0.9
15	8-7	MO ST	UALR	Kill	Lovina Teel	set Victoria Fontenot	+0.7
16	8-8	UALR	MO ST	Kill	Rilynn Finley	set Hannah Gardner	+0.7
17	9-8	MO ST	UALR	Kill	Bella Cherry	set Skyler Perez	+0.7
18	9-9	UALR	MO ST	Kill	Chloe Judd	set Hannah Gardner	+0.7
19	9-10	MO ST	MO ST	Attack err	Bella Cherry	blk Rilynn Finley	+0.9
20	10-10	MO ST	UALR	Kill	Avery Fearnley	set Alayna Vaeth	+0.7
21	11-10	UALR	UALR	Attack err	Chloe Judd		+1.1
22	11-11	UALR	MO ST	Kill	Rilynn Finley	set Halle Rillie	+0.7
23	12-11	MO ST	UALR	Feed gap	Placeholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known.		+0.8
24	12-12	UALR	MO ST	Attack err	Morgan Creer		+0.8
25	13-12	MO ST	UALR	Kill	Avery Fearnley	set Lily King	+0.9
26	14-12	UALR	UALR	Attack err	Jenna Walters	blk Morgan Creer	+1.2
27	14-13	UALR	MO ST	Bad set	Skyler Perez		+0.8
28	14-14	MO ST	MO ST	Ace	MO ST server	aced Lovina Teel	+1.2
29	15-14	MO ST	UALR	Kill	Morgan Creer	set Lily King	+0.9
30	15-15	UALR	MO ST	Attack err	Alyssa Boyte	blk Hannah Redrow	+0.9
31	15-16	MO ST	MO ST	Kill	Rilynn Finley	set Hannah Gardner	+1.2
32	16-16	MO ST	UALR	Attack err	Hannah Redrow		+0.9
33	17-16	UALR	UALR	Kill	Lovina Teel	set Skyler Perez	+1.4
34	17-17	UALR	MO ST	Kill	Rilynn Finley	set Hannah Gardner	+1.0
35	18-17	MO ST	UALR	Kill	Lovina Teel	set Alayna Vaeth	+1.1
36	18-18	UALR	MO ST	Kill	Lexi Weinberg	set Hannah Gardner	+1.0
37	19-18	MO ST	UALR	Kill	Alyssa Boyte	set Alayna Vaeth	+1.2
38	19-19	UALR	MO ST	Attack err	Lovina Teel		+1.1
39	20-19	MO ST	UALR	Kill	Avery Fearnley	set Alayna Vaeth	+1.3
40	20-20	UALR	MO ST	Kill	Hannah Gardner	set Halle Rillie	+1.2
41	21-20	MO ST	UALR	Kill	Avery Fearnley	set Skyler Perez	+1.5
42	21-21	UALR	MO ST	Kill	Hannah Gardner	set Brooke Eslinger	+1.4
43	21-22	MO ST	MO ST	Attack err	Morgan Creer	blk Hannah Redrow, Ashlyn Blazer	+2.1
44	22-22	MO ST	UALR	Kill	Avery Fearnley	set Lily King	+1.5
45	22-23	UALR	MO ST	Kill	Hannah Redrow	set Hannah Gardner	+1.7
46	23-23	MO ST	UALR	Serve err	MO ST server		+1.7
47	23-24	UALR	MO ST	Kill	Rilynn Finley	set Hannah Gardner	+2.2
48	24-24	MO ST	UALR	Kill	Lovina Teel	set Lily King	+2.2
49	24-25	UALR	MO ST	Serve err	UALR server		+2.2
50	24-26	MO ST	MO ST	Kill	Rilynn Finley	set Hannah Gardner	+2.7

Score shown after each rally, Little Rock first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.