FinalFri, Sep 4, 2026

AwaySOUTHLAND

0:3

HomeCUSA

Missouri St. def. Northwestern St. 3–0

(25-22, 25-22, 25-18)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
NW ST	22	22	18	0
MO ST	25	25	25	3

RallyIQ model

Win probability

MO ST above 50 · NW ST below

Biggest swing: 0.3% to Northwestern St. — set 1, NW ST 16-17 MO ST. Kill by Gillian Wolf (set by Jade Longlad). MO ST win probability 99% → 99%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

NW ST 1.0%99.0% MO ST

Northwestern St. wins

3-0

0.1%

3-1

0.2%

3-2

0.7%

Missouri St. wins

3-0

74.4%

3-1

21.0%

3-2

3.7%

NW ST break %: 31.8% vs this opp
MO ST break %: 49.6% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Gillian WolfKill+0.3%
Kill by Gillian Wolf (set by Jade Longlad)
Set 1 · NW ST 16-17 MO ST · NW ST 1% → 1%
02
MO ST serverAce+0.3%
Missouri St. ace on Valerie Brown
Set 1 · NW ST 19-22 MO ST · MO ST 99% → 99%
03
Rilynn FinleyKill+0.3%
Kill by Rilynn Finley (set by Halle Rillie)
Set 1 · NW ST 19-21 MO ST · MO ST 99% → 99%
04
Elsie SanchezKill+0.2%
Kill by Elsie Sanchez (set by Jade Longlad)
Set 1 · NW ST 19-20 MO ST · NW ST 1% → 1%
05
Halle KerkmanKill+0.2%
Kill by Halle Kerkman (set by Halle Rillie)
Set 2 · NW ST 22-24 MO ST · MO ST 99% → 100%
06
Olivia NziokiAttack error+0.2%
Olivia Nzioki stuffed by Chloe Judd & Rilynn Finley
Set 1 · NW ST 18-20 MO ST · MO ST 99% → 99%
07
Lexi WeinbergAttack error+0.2%
Lexi Weinberg stuffed by Jade Longlad
Set 1 · NW ST 18-19 MO ST · NW ST 1% → 1%
08
NW ST serverAce+0.2%
Northwestern St. ace on Brooke Eslinger
Set 2 · NW ST 21-22 MO ST · NW ST 0% → 1%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Northwestern St.away

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
17Elsie SanchezOH	3	15	2	33	.394	0	1	1	3	0	0	0	0	16
22Olivia NziokiMB	3	8	5	20	.150	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	9
6Amber CraigOH	3	7	4	24	.125	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	7
5Gillian WolfOH	3	5	3	17	.118	0	0	0	0	2	0	1	0.5	5.5
4Kenadii WinfreyMB	3	3	2	8	.125	0	2	2	1	0	0	0	0	5
11Jade LongladS	3	1	1	5	.000	31	0	2	7	0	1	1	1.5	2.5
16Anna Claire HebertS	3	1	0	2	.500	1	0	2	6	1	0	0	0	1
2Emmarie McFarlandL/DS	3	1	0	1	1.000	6	0	0	12	0	0	0	0	1
12Valerie BrownL/DS	3	0	0	1	.000	0	1	1	4	1	0	0	0	1
7Harper CauleyL/DS	3	0	0	1	.000	0	0	1	11	0	0	0	0	0
14Ana GjorgjievskaOH	1	0	1	2	-.500	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
1Julia WhitfieldMB	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		41	18	114	.202	38	4	9	45	5	1	4	3	62

Missouri St.home

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
16Rilynn FinleyOH	3	10	2	25	.320	0	1	0	3	0	0	2	1	12
12Hannah RedrowMB	3	8	1	12	.583	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	9
1Chloe JuddMB	3	7	1	10	.600	0	1	0	3	0	0	2	1	9
7Lexi WeinbergOPP	3	6	2	21	.190	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	6.5
18Hannah GardnerS	3	3	1	18	.111	19	0	3	4	0	1	1	1.5	4.5
3Kya JohnsonDS	3	0	0	0	–	0	2	2	7	0	0	0	0	2
8Brooke EslingerDS	3	0	0	0	–	3	1	1	20	1	0	0	0	1
2Halle RillieS	3	0	0	0	–	19	0	0	4	0	0	0	0	0
10Riley OurthDS	3	0	0	0	–	1	0	1	3	1	0	0	0	0
6Halle KerkmanOH	2	8	1	12	.583	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	8
13Ashlyn BlazerOH	1	1	1	6	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team totals		43	9	104	.327	42	5	7	46	4	1	8	5	75

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 3 NW ST · MO ST 5

Set 1

22-25

Longest run 3 NW STMO ST 3

Set 2

22-25

Longest run 3 NW STMO ST 5

Set 3

18-25

Longest run 3 NW STMO ST 4

Bars above the line = Missouri St. leads, below = Northwestern St. leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Northwestern St.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	64%9/14	33%4/12
2	69%9/13	10%1/10
3	67%8/12	31%4/13
4	41%7/17	0%0/8
5	100%7/7	30%3/10
6	64%7/11	30%3/10
All	64%47/74	24%15/63

Missouri St.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	82%9/11	43%6/14
2	90%9/10	31%4/13
3	73%8/11	11%1/9
4	89%8/9	50%8/16
5	64%7/11	42%5/12
6	64%7/11	30%3/10
All	76%48/63	36%27/74

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

137 rallies

Rally log

#	NW ST-MO ST	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	MO ST	NW ST	Serve err	MO ST server		+0.1
2	1-1	NW ST	MO ST×3	Kill	Hannah Redrow	set Hannah Gardner	+0.1
3	1-2	MO ST	MO ST×3	Kill	Rilynn Finley	set Hannah Gardner	+0.1
4	1-3	MO ST	MO ST×3	Ace	MO ST server	aced Anna Claire Hebert	+0.1
5	2-3	MO ST	NW ST	Kill	Gillian Wolf	set Jade Longlad	+0.1
6	3-3	NW ST	NW ST	Kill	Elsie Sanchez	set Hannah Gardner	+0.2
7	3-4	NW ST	MO ST	Kill	Chloe Judd	set Hannah Gardner	+0.1
8	3-5	MO ST	MO ST	Attack err	Olivia Nzioki	blk Rilynn Finley, Chloe Judd	+0.1
9	4-5	MO ST	NW ST	Kill	Emmarie McFarland	set Jade Longlad	+0.1
10	4-6	NW ST	MO ST	Kill	Chloe Judd	set Halle Rillie	+0.1
11	4-7	MO ST	MO ST	Attack err	Elsie Sanchez		+0.1
12	5-7	MO ST	NW ST	Kill	Elsie Sanchez	set Jade Longlad	+0.1
13	5-8	NW ST	MO ST	Kill	Chloe Judd	set Halle Rillie	+0.1
14	6-8	MO ST	NW ST	Kill	Elsie Sanchez	set Jade Longlad	+0.1
15	6-9	NW ST	MO ST	Attack err	Amber Craig	blk Hannah Redrow, Hannah Gardner	+0.1
16	7-9	MO ST	NW ST	Kill	Amber Craig	set Jade Longlad	+0.1
17	7-10	NW ST	MO ST×3	Attack err	Gillian Wolf		+0.1
18	7-11	MO ST	MO ST×3	Ace	MO ST server	aced Gillian Wolf	+0.1
19	7-12	MO ST	MO ST×3	Kill	Lexi Weinberg	set Hannah Gardner	+0.1
20	8-12	MO ST	NW ST	Kill	Amber Craig	set Jade Longlad	+0.0
21	9-12	NW ST	NW ST	Kill	Olivia Nzioki	set Jade Longlad	+0.1
22	9-13	NW ST	MO ST	Serve err	NW ST server		+0.1
23	10-13	MO ST	NW ST	Attack err	Chloe Judd		+0.1
24	10-14	NW ST	MO ST	Kill	Rilynn Finley	set Hannah Gardner	+0.1
25	11-14	MO ST	NW ST	Kill	Olivia Nzioki	set Jade Longlad	+0.1
26	11-15	NW ST	MO ST	Kill	Rilynn Finley	set Halle Rillie	+0.1
27	12-15	MO ST	NW ST	Kill	Elsie Sanchez	set Jade Longlad	+0.1
28	12-16	NW ST	MO ST	Kill	Ashlyn Blazer	set Halle Rillie	+0.1
29	13-16	MO ST	NW ST	Attack err	Ashlyn Blazer		+0.1
30	13-17	NW ST	MO ST	Serve err	NW ST server		+0.1
31	14-17	MO ST	NW ST×3	Serve err	MO ST server		+0.1
32	15-17	NW ST	NW ST×3	Kill	Olivia Nzioki		+0.2
33	16-17	NW ST	NW ST×3	Kill	Gillian Wolf	set Jade Longlad	+0.3
34	16-18	NW ST	MO ST	Kill	Hannah Redrow	set Hannah Gardner	+0.2
35	17-18	MO ST	NW ST	Kill	Amber Craig	set Jade Longlad	+0.2
36	17-19	NW ST	MO ST	Attack err	Gillian Wolf		+0.2
37	18-19	MO ST	NW ST	Attack err	Lexi Weinberg	blk Jade Longlad	+0.2
38	18-20	NW ST	MO ST	Attack err	Olivia Nzioki	blk Chloe Judd, Rilynn Finley	+0.2
39	19-20	MO ST	NW ST	Kill	Elsie Sanchez	set Jade Longlad	+0.2
40	19-21	NW ST	MO ST	Kill	Rilynn Finley	set Halle Rillie	+0.3
41	19-22	MO ST	MO ST	Ace	MO ST server	aced Valerie Brown	+0.3
42	20-22	MO ST	NW ST	Kill	Elsie Sanchez	set Jade Longlad	+0.1
43	20-23	NW ST	MO ST	Kill	Chloe Judd	set Halle Rillie	+0.2
44	21-23	MO ST	NW ST	Kill	Elsie Sanchez	set Jade Longlad	+0.1
45	21-24	NW ST	MO ST	Kill	Hannah Gardner	set Brooke Eslinger	+0.2
46	22-24	MO ST	NW ST	Serve err	MO ST server		+0.1
47	22-25	NW ST	MO ST	Attack err	Amber Craig		+0.1
Set 2
1	0-1	NW ST	MO ST	Kill	Lexi Weinberg	set Hannah Gardner	+0.1
2	1-1	MO ST	NW ST	Kill	Elsie Sanchez	set Emmarie McFarland	+0.1
3	1-2	NW ST	MO ST	Attack err	Amber Craig		+0.1
4	2-2	MO ST	NW ST	Kill	Amber Craig	set Jade Longlad	+0.1
5	3-2	NW ST	NW ST	Kill	Olivia Nzioki	set Jade Longlad	+0.1
6	3-3	NW ST	MO ST×3	Serve err	NW ST server		+0.1
7	3-4	MO ST	MO ST×3	Kill	Hannah Gardner	set Halle Rillie	+0.1
8	3-5	MO ST	MO ST×3	Attack err	Jade Longlad		+0.1
9	4-5	MO ST	NW ST	Kill	Amber Craig	set Jade Longlad	+0.1
10	4-6	NW ST	MO ST×5	Attack err	Olivia Nzioki		+0.1
11	4-7	MO ST	MO ST×5	Kill	Hannah Redrow	set Halle Rillie	+0.1
12	4-8	MO ST	MO ST×5	Attack err	Ana Gjorgjievska	blk Hannah Gardner	+0.0
13	4-9	MO ST	MO ST×5	Attack err	Olivia Nzioki		+0.0
14	4-10	MO ST	MO ST×5	Ace	MO ST server	aced Team	+0.0
15	5-10	MO ST	NW ST×3	Kill	Jade Longlad	set Emmarie McFarland	+0.0
16	6-10	NW ST	NW ST×3	Kill	Olivia Nzioki	set Halle Rillie	+0.0
17	7-10	NW ST	NW ST×3	Ace	NW ST server	aced Riley Ourth	+0.0
18	7-11	NW ST	MO ST	Kill	Halle Kerkman	set Halle Rillie	+0.0
19	8-11	MO ST	NW ST	Kill	Elsie Sanchez	set Anna Claire Hebert	+0.0
20	8-12	NW ST	MO ST	Kill	Lexi Weinberg	set Hannah Gardner	+0.0
21	9-12	MO ST	NW ST	Kill	Kenadii Winfrey	set Jade Longlad	+0.0
22	9-13	NW ST	MO ST	Serve err	NW ST server		+0.0
23	10-13	MO ST	NW ST	Kill	Elsie Sanchez	set Jade Longlad	+0.0
24	10-14	NW ST	MO ST	Serve err	NW ST server		+0.0
25	11-14	MO ST	NW ST	Kill	Gillian Wolf	set Emmarie McFarland	+0.0
26	12-14	NW ST	NW ST	Ace	NW ST server	aced Team	+0.1
27	12-15	NW ST	MO ST	Serve err	NW ST server		+0.1
28	12-16	MO ST	MO ST	Attack err	Amber Craig		+0.1
29	13-16	MO ST	NW ST	Kill	Olivia Nzioki	set Jade Longlad	+0.0
30	13-17	NW ST	MO ST	Kill	Chloe Judd	set Hannah Gardner	+0.0
31	14-17	MO ST	NW ST	Attack err	Hannah Gardner		+0.0
32	14-18	NW ST	MO ST	Kill	Halle Kerkman	set Halle Rillie	+0.0
33	15-18	MO ST	NW ST	Serve err	MO ST server		+0.0
34	16-18	NW ST	NW ST	Kill	Kenadii Winfrey	set Jade Longlad	+0.1
35	16-19	NW ST	MO ST	Kill	Hannah Redrow	set Hannah Gardner	+0.1
36	16-20	MO ST	MO ST	Attack err	Elsie Sanchez	blk Hannah Redrow, Lexi Weinberg	+0.1
37	17-20	MO ST	NW ST	Kill	Elsie Sanchez	set Jade Longlad	+0.0
38	18-20	NW ST	NW ST	Kill	Elsie Sanchez	set Jade Longlad	+0.1
39	18-21	NW ST	MO ST	Kill	Rilynn Finley	set Hannah Gardner	+0.1
40	19-21	MO ST	NW ST	Kill	Elsie Sanchez	set Jade Longlad	+0.1
41	19-22	NW ST	MO ST	Kill	Rilynn Finley	set Hannah Gardner	+0.1
42	20-22	MO ST	NW ST	Bad set	Halle Rillie		+0.1
43	21-22	NW ST	NW ST	Ace	NW ST server	aced Brooke Eslinger	+0.2
44	21-23	NW ST	MO ST	Kill	Rilynn Finley	set Halle Rillie	+0.2
45	22-23	MO ST	NW ST	Kill	Amber Craig	set Emmarie McFarland	+0.2
46	22-24	NW ST	MO ST	Kill	Halle Kerkman	set Halle Rillie	+0.2
47	22-25	MO ST	MO ST	Attack err	Olivia Nzioki		+0.1
Set 3
1	0-1	MO ST	MO ST	Ace	MO ST server	aced Gillian Wolf	+0.0
2	1-1	MO ST	NW ST	Serve err	MO ST server		+0.0
3	1-2	NW ST	MO ST	Serve err	NW ST server		+0.0
4	2-2	MO ST	NW ST	Kill	Olivia Nzioki	set Jade Longlad	+0.0
5	2-3	NW ST	MO ST	Serve err	NW ST server		+0.0
6	3-3	MO ST	NW ST	Attack err	Rilynn Finley	blk Olivia Nzioki, Jade Longlad	+0.0
7	3-4	NW ST	MO ST×4	Kill	Hannah Gardner	set Halle Rillie	+0.0
8	3-5	MO ST	MO ST×4	Kill	Halle Kerkman	set Halle Rillie	+0.0
9	3-6	MO ST	MO ST×4	Kill	Halle Kerkman	set Halle Rillie	+0.0
10	3-7	MO ST	MO ST×4	Attack err	Kenadii Winfrey		+0.0
11	4-7	MO ST	NW ST	Kill	Elsie Sanchez	set Jade Longlad	+0.0
12	5-7	NW ST	NW ST	Kill	Elsie Sanchez	set Jade Longlad	+0.0
13	5-8	NW ST	MO ST	Serve err	NW ST server		+0.0
14	6-8	MO ST	NW ST×3	Kill	Kenadii Winfrey	set Jade Longlad	+0.0
15	7-8	NW ST	NW ST×3	Ace	NW ST server	aced Team	+0.0
16	8-8	NW ST	NW ST×3	Attack err	Hannah Redrow		+0.1
17	8-9	NW ST	MO ST×3	Kill	Halle Kerkman	set Halle Rillie	+0.0
18	8-10	MO ST	MO ST×3	Kill	Lexi Weinberg	set Hannah Gardner	+0.0
19	8-11	MO ST	MO ST×3	Attack err	Kenadii Winfrey		+0.0
20	9-11	MO ST	NW ST	Kill	Gillian Wolf	set Jade Longlad	+0.0
21	9-12	NW ST	MO ST×3	Kill	Halle Kerkman	set Brooke Eslinger	+0.0
22	9-13	MO ST	MO ST×3	Kill	Hannah Redrow		+0.0
23	9-14	MO ST	MO ST×3	Kill	Hannah Redrow	set Hannah Gardner	+0.0
24	10-14	MO ST	NW ST	Kill	Gillian Wolf	set Jade Longlad	+0.0
25	10-15	NW ST	MO ST	Kill	Rilynn Finley	set Brooke Eslinger	+0.0
26	10-16	MO ST	MO ST	Kill	Lexi Weinberg	set Hannah Gardner	+0.0
27	11-16	MO ST	NW ST	Serve err	MO ST server		+0.0
28	11-17	NW ST	MO ST	Kill	Rilynn Finley	set Hannah Gardner	+0.0
29	12-17	MO ST	NW ST	Kill	Anna Claire Hebert	set Emmarie McFarland	+0.0
30	12-18	NW ST	MO ST	Kill	Chloe Judd	set Halle Rillie	+0.0
31	13-18	MO ST	NW ST	Serve err	MO ST server		+0.0
32	13-19	NW ST	MO ST	Kill	Chloe Judd	set Halle Rillie	+0.0
33	14-19	MO ST	NW ST	Attack err	Halle Kerkman		+0.0
34	14-20	NW ST	MO ST	Kill	Halle Kerkman	set Halle Rillie	+0.0
35	14-21	MO ST	MO ST	Kill	Lexi Weinberg	set Riley Ourth	+0.0
36	15-21	MO ST	NW ST	Kill	Amber Craig	set Emmarie McFarland	+0.0
37	16-21	NW ST	NW ST	Kill	Olivia Nzioki	set Jade Longlad	+0.0
38	16-22	NW ST	MO ST	Kill	Hannah Redrow	set Hannah Gardner	+0.0
39	17-22	MO ST	NW ST	Attack err	Rilynn Finley		+0.0
40	17-23	NW ST	MO ST	Kill	Hannah Redrow	set Hannah Gardner	+0.0
41	17-24	MO ST	MO ST	Attack err	Gillian Wolf		+0.0
42	18-24	MO ST	NW ST	Attack err	Lexi Weinberg	blk Gillian Wolf, Olivia Nzioki	+0.0
43	18-25	NW ST	MO ST	Kill	Rilynn Finley	set Hannah Gardner	+0.0

Score shown after each rally, Northwestern St. first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.