FinalFri, Sep 11, 2026

AwayCUSA

3:0

HomeMVC

Missouri St. def. Southern Ill. 3–0

(25-18, 25-16, 25-22)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
MO ST	25	25	25	3
SIU	18	16	22	0

RallyIQ model

Win probability

SIU above 50 · MO ST below

Biggest swing: 2.5% to Missouri St. — set 1, MO ST 16-16 SIU. Kill by Chloe Judd (set by Halle Rillie). SIU win probability 18% → 16%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

MO ST 86.5%13.5% SIU

Missouri St. wins

3-0

39.1%

3-1

31.5%

3-2

15.9%

Southern Ill. wins

3-0

1.9%

3-1

4.3%

3-2

7.3%

MO ST break %: 45.3% vs this opp
SIU break %: 36.9% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Chloe JuddKill+2.5%
Kill by Chloe Judd (set by Halle Rillie)
Set 1 · MO ST 16-16 SIU · MO ST 82% → 84%
02
Rilynn FinleyKill+2.4%
Kill by Rilynn Finley (set by Halle Rillie)
Set 1 · MO ST 17-16 SIU · MO ST 84% → 87%
03
Beatriz PiaiaKill+2.4%
Kill by Beatriz Piaia
Set 1 · MO ST 10-13 SIU · SIU 18% → 21%
04
Chloe AndersonAttack error+2.2%
Attack error by Chloe Anderson
Set 1 · MO ST 18-16 SIU · MO ST 87% → 89%
05
Lexi WeinbergKill+2.2%
Kill by Lexi Weinberg (set by Kya Johnson)
Set 1 · MO ST 12-13 SIU · MO ST 81% → 83%
06
Hannah GardnerKill+2.0%
Kill by Hannah Gardner (set by Halle Rillie)
Set 1 · MO ST 10-11 SIU · MO ST 81% → 83%
07
McKenzie MoellerKill+2.0%
Kill by McKenzie Moeller (set by Alexandria Arrington)
Set 1 · MO ST 14-16 SIU · SIU 18% → 20%
08
SIU serverAce+1.9%
Southern Ill. ace on Rilynn Finley
Set 1 · MO ST 3-8 SIU · SIU 21% → 23%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Missouri St.away

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
18Hannah GardnerS	3	12	3	32	.281	15	0	0	8	0	0	0	0	12
16Rilynn FinleyOH	3	11	3	28	.286	0	0	0	2	1	0	1	0.5	11.5
1Chloe JuddMB	3	6	3	15	.200	1	3	0	5	0	0	5	2.5	11.5
7Lexi WeinbergOPP	3	6	1	17	.294	0	0	0	3	0	0	2	1	7
12Hannah RedrowMB	3	5	0	8	.625	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	5
10Riley OurthDS	3	0	0	1	.000	1	2	2	5	0	0	0	0	2
4Jenna WaltersOH	3	4	6	17	-.118	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1.5	5.5
8Brooke EslingerDS	3	0	0	0	–	1	3	0	16	1	0	0	0	3
2Halle RillieS	3	0	0	0	–	21	1	1	9	0	0	1	0.5	1.5
3Kya JohnsonDS	3	0	0	0	–	4	1	0	11	1	0	0	0	1
Team totals		44	16	118	.237	43	10	3	59	3	1	10	6	75

Southern Ill.home

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
3McKenzie MoellerOH	3	14	8	50	.120	0	1	0	4	2	0	1	0.5	15.5
22Chloe AndersonMB	3	3	3	10	.000	0	0	0	0	0	1	4	3	6
8Alexandria ArringtonS	3	4	0	10	.400	16	0	1	10	0	0	0	0	4
13Beatriz PiaiaMB	3	2	0	6	.333	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	2
17Julia LaidigDS	3	0	0	2	.000	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	0
21Isabella Del RealL/DS	2	0	0	1	.000	0	0	0	7	0	0	0	0	0
14Ella SwansigerOH	3	8	4	22	.182	0	0	0	2	1	0	1	0.5	8.5
11Jillian ShaneyfeltL/DS	3	0	0	5	.000	4	1	1	20	2	0	0	0	1
2Natalie VanceOPP	1	1	2	3	-.333	0	0	0	2	0	0	2	1	2
15Ida AlmkvistOH	1	1	1	5	.000	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	1
4Ella McFarlandOPP	1	0	0	0	–	10	1	0	2	0	0	0	0	1
18Una StepicOH	1	0	1	5	-.200	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
12Carlota MoraOH	1	0	0	1	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		33	19	120	.117	30	3	2	51	10	1	8	5	56

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 7 MO ST · SIU 4

Set 1

25-18

Longest run 5 MO STSIU 3

Set 2

25-16

Longest run 7 MO STSIU 3

Set 3

25-22

Longest run 4 MO STSIU 4

Bars above the line = Southern Ill. leads, below = Missouri St. leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Missouri St.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	60%6/10	50%5/10
2	67%6/9	60%9/15
3	50%6/12	45%5/11
4	60%6/10	65%11/17
5	57%4/7	69%9/13
6	44%4/9	50%4/8
All	56%32/57	58%43/74

Southern Ill.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	40%6/15	38%3/8
2	67%6/9	40%4/10
3	43%6/14	45%5/11
4	31%5/16	54%7/13
5	36%4/11	17%1/6
6	44%4/9	56%5/9
All	42%31/74	44%25/57

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

131 rallies

Rally log

#	MO ST-SIU	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	MO ST	MO ST	Kill	Hannah Redrow	set Hannah Gardner	+1.3
2	1-1	MO ST	SIU×3	Serve err	MO ST server		+1.0
3	1-2	SIU	SIU×3	Kill	McKenzie Moeller	set Alexandria Arrington	+1.5
4	1-3	SIU	SIU×3	Ace	SIU server	aced Brooke Eslinger	+1.7
5	2-3	SIU	MO ST	Kill	Rilynn Finley	set Hannah Gardner	+1.1
6	2-4	MO ST	SIU×3	Kill	McKenzie Moeller	set Alexandria Arrington	+1.2
7	2-5	SIU	SIU×3	Kill	McKenzie Moeller	set Jillian Shaneyfelt	+1.9
8	2-6	SIU	SIU×3	Attack err	Lexi Weinberg	blk McKenzie Moeller, Chloe Anderson	+1.9
9	3-6	SIU	MO ST	Serve err	SIU server		+1.1
10	3-7	MO ST	SIU×3	Serve err	MO ST server		+1.4
11	3-8	SIU	SIU×3	Ace	SIU server	aced Rilynn Finley	+1.9
12	3-9	SIU	SIU×3	Attack err	Rilynn Finley		+1.8
13	4-9	SIU	MO ST	Kill	Chloe Judd	set Halle Rillie	+1.0
14	5-9	MO ST	MO ST	Kill	Chloe Judd	set Halle Rillie	+1.6
15	5-10	MO ST	SIU	Kill	Ella Swansiger	set Alexandria Arrington	+1.4
16	5-11	SIU	SIU	Attack err	Chloe Judd		+1.9
17	6-11	SIU	MO ST×5	Attack err	Ella Swansiger		+1.0
18	7-11	MO ST	MO ST×5	Ace	MO ST server	aced McKenzie Moeller	+1.6
19	8-11	MO ST	MO ST×5	Attack err	Una Stepic		+1.8
20	9-11	MO ST	MO ST×5	Ace	MO ST server	aced Team	+1.9
21	10-11	MO ST	MO ST×5	Kill	Hannah Gardner	set Halle Rillie	+2.0
22	10-12	MO ST	SIU	Attack err	Jenna Walters		+1.6
23	10-13	SIU	SIU	Kill	Beatriz Piaia		+2.4
24	11-13	SIU	MO ST	Kill	Hannah Gardner	set Halle Rillie	+1.4
25	12-13	MO ST	MO ST	Kill	Lexi Weinberg	set Kya Johnson	+2.2
26	12-14	MO ST	SIU	Kill	Beatriz Piaia	set Alexandria Arrington	+1.8
27	13-14	SIU	MO ST	Kill	Jenna Walters	set Kya Johnson	+1.5
28	13-15	MO ST	SIU	Bad set	Hannah Gardner		+1.9
29	14-15	SIU	MO ST	Kill	Rilynn Finley	set Hannah Gardner	+1.6
30	14-16	MO ST	SIU	Kill	McKenzie Moeller	set Alexandria Arrington	+2.0
31	15-16	SIU	MO ST×4	Attack err	Chloe Anderson	blk Lexi Weinberg, Chloe Judd	+1.7
32	16-16	MO ST	MO ST×4	Kill	Chloe Judd	set Halle Rillie	+2.5
33	17-16	MO ST	MO ST×4	Kill	Rilynn Finley	set Halle Rillie	+2.4
34	18-16	MO ST	MO ST×4	Attack err	Chloe Anderson		+2.2
35	18-17	MO ST	SIU	Kill	Ella Swansiger	set Jillian Shaneyfelt	+1.4
36	19-17	SIU	MO ST×4	Kill	Rilynn Finley	set Brooke Eslinger	+1.6
37	20-17	MO ST	MO ST×4	Kill	Hannah Gardner	set Chloe Judd	+1.8
38	21-17	MO ST	MO ST×4	Attack err	Ella Swansiger	blk Jenna Walters, Chloe Judd	+1.2
39	22-17	MO ST	MO ST×4	Ace	MO ST server	aced Jillian Shaneyfelt	+0.7
40	22-18	MO ST	SIU	Kill	Chloe Anderson	set Alexandria Arrington	+0.2
41	23-18	SIU	MO ST×3	Kill	Hannah Gardner	set Halle Rillie	+0.4
42	24-18	MO ST	MO ST×3	Kill	Jenna Walters	set Halle Rillie	+0.2
43	25-18	MO ST	MO ST×3	Kill	Hannah Gardner	set Kya Johnson	+0.0
Set 2
1	1-0	SIU	MO ST×7	Kill	Rilynn Finley	set Hannah Gardner	+0.6
2	2-0	MO ST	MO ST×7	Ace	MO ST server	aced Jillian Shaneyfelt	+0.8
3	3-0	MO ST	MO ST×7	Attack err	McKenzie Moeller		+0.7
4	4-0	MO ST	MO ST×7	Ace	MO ST server	aced Julia Laidig	+0.6
5	5-0	MO ST	MO ST×7	Kill	Rilynn Finley	set Hannah Gardner	+0.5
6	6-0	MO ST	MO ST×7	Kill	Lexi Weinberg	set Hannah Gardner	+0.4
7	7-0	MO ST	MO ST×7	Attack err	McKenzie Moeller	blk Lexi Weinberg, Chloe Judd	+0.3
8	7-1	MO ST	SIU	Attack err	Chloe Judd		+0.2
9	8-1	SIU	MO ST	Attack err	Chloe Anderson	blk Chloe Judd, Rilynn Finley	+0.2
10	8-2	MO ST	SIU	Attack err	Hannah Gardner		+0.2
11	8-3	SIU	SIU	Kill	McKenzie Moeller	set Alexandria Arrington	+0.3
12	9-3	SIU	MO ST×3	Kill	Rilynn Finley	set Halle Rillie	+0.3
13	10-3	MO ST	MO ST×3	Attack err	Natalie Vance	blk Halle Rillie, Chloe Judd	+0.3
14	11-3	MO ST	MO ST×3	Attack err	McKenzie Moeller		+0.2
15	11-4	MO ST	SIU	Kill	McKenzie Moeller	set Alexandria Arrington	+0.1
16	11-5	SIU	SIU	Kill	Chloe Anderson	set Alexandria Arrington	+0.2
17	12-5	SIU	MO ST	Kill	Hannah Gardner	set Halle Rillie	+0.2
18	13-5	MO ST	MO ST	Ace	MO ST server	aced Ella Swansiger	+0.2
19	13-6	MO ST	SIU	Attack err	Jenna Walters		+0.1
20	14-6	SIU	MO ST	Kill	Hannah Redrow	set Halle Rillie	+0.1
21	15-6	MO ST	MO ST	Attack err	Natalie Vance	blk Jenna Walters	+0.1
22	15-7	MO ST	SIU×3	Kill	Ella Swansiger	set Alexandria Arrington	+0.1
23	15-8	SIU	SIU×3	Kill	McKenzie Moeller	set Beatriz Piaia	+0.1
24	15-9	SIU	SIU×3	Attack err	Jenna Walters		+0.2
25	16-9	SIU	MO ST×3	Kill	Lexi Weinberg	set Hannah Gardner	+0.2
26	17-9	MO ST	MO ST×3	Attack err	Ella Swansiger		+0.2
27	18-9	MO ST	MO ST×3	Ace	MO ST server	aced McKenzie Moeller	+0.1
28	18-10	MO ST	SIU	Serve err	MO ST server		+0.0
29	19-10	SIU	MO ST	Kill	Hannah Redrow	set Hannah Gardner	+0.0
30	19-11	MO ST	SIU	Kill	McKenzie Moeller	set Alexandria Arrington	+0.0
31	20-11	SIU	MO ST	Kill	Rilynn Finley	set Hannah Gardner	+0.0
32	20-12	MO ST	SIU	Kill	Chloe Anderson	set Brooke Eslinger	+0.0
33	20-13	SIU	SIU	Attack err	Rilynn Finley	blk Chloe Anderson, Natalie Vance	+0.1
34	21-13	SIU	MO ST	Kill	Chloe Judd	set Halle Rillie	+0.1
35	22-13	MO ST	MO ST	Kill	Hannah Gardner	set Halle Rillie	+0.0
36	22-14	MO ST	SIU×3	Attack err	Jenna Walters	blk Natalie Vance, Chloe Anderson	+0.0
37	22-15	SIU	SIU×3	Attack err	Chloe Judd	blk Chloe Anderson	+0.0
38	22-16	SIU	SIU×3	Kill	Natalie Vance	set Jillian Shaneyfelt	+0.1
39	23-16	SIU	MO ST×3	Attack err	McKenzie Moeller		+0.1
40	24-16	MO ST	MO ST×3	Attack err	McKenzie Moeller		+0.0
41	25-16	MO ST	MO ST×3	Attack err	McKenzie Moeller		+0.0
Set 3
1	0-1	MO ST	SIU×3	Kill	Alexandria Arrington	set Ella McFarland	+0.4
2	0-2	SIU	SIU×3	Kill	McKenzie Moeller	set Ella McFarland	+0.6
3	0-3	SIU	SIU×3	Kill	McKenzie Moeller	set Ella McFarland	+0.6
4	1-3	SIU	MO ST	Kill	Hannah Gardner		+0.4
5	2-3	MO ST	MO ST	Kill	Rilynn Finley	set Hannah Gardner	+0.5
6	2-4	MO ST	SIU	Kill	McKenzie Moeller	set Ella McFarland	+0.4
7	2-5	SIU	SIU	Kill	McKenzie Moeller	set Ella McFarland	+0.6
8	3-5	SIU	MO ST	Kill	Lexi Weinberg	set Hannah Gardner	+0.4
9	4-5	MO ST	MO ST	Ace	MO ST server	aced Julia Laidig	+0.6
10	4-6	MO ST	SIU	Kill	Alexandria Arrington	set Ella McFarland	+0.4
11	4-7	SIU	SIU	Attack err	Rilynn Finley		+0.7
12	5-7	SIU	MO ST	Kill	Rilynn Finley	set Halle Rillie	+0.4
13	6-7	MO ST	MO ST	Attack err	McKenzie Moeller		+0.6
14	6-8	MO ST	SIU	Kill	Ella Swansiger	set Alexandria Arrington	+0.5
15	7-8	SIU	MO ST	Kill	Hannah Gardner	set Halle Rillie	+0.4
16	7-9	MO ST	SIU	Kill	Ella Swansiger	set Alexandria Arrington	+0.5
17	8-9	SIU	MO ST	Kill	Hannah Redrow	set Halle Rillie	+0.4
18	8-10	MO ST	SIU	Kill	Ella Swansiger	set Alexandria Arrington	+0.5
19	9-10	SIU	MO ST	Kill	Lexi Weinberg	set Hannah Gardner	+0.4
20	9-11	MO ST	SIU	Kill	Ida Almkvist	set Ella McFarland	+0.5
21	10-11	SIU	MO ST×3	Kill	Lexi Weinberg	set Hannah Gardner	+0.5
22	11-11	MO ST	MO ST×3	Kill	Chloe Judd	set Hannah Gardner	+0.7
23	12-11	MO ST	MO ST×3	Ace	MO ST server	aced Julia Laidig	+0.6
24	12-12	MO ST	SIU	Kill	McKenzie Moeller	set Ella McFarland	+0.5
25	13-12	SIU	MO ST	Serve err	SIU server		+0.4
26	14-12	MO ST	MO ST	Kill	Hannah Gardner	set Halle Rillie	+0.6
27	14-13	MO ST	SIU	Kill	Alexandria Arrington	set Ella McFarland	+0.4
28	14-14	SIU	SIU	Attack err	Hannah Gardner		+0.7
29	15-14	SIU	MO ST×4	Kill	Chloe Judd	set Halle Rillie	+0.5
30	16-14	MO ST	MO ST×4	Kill	Hannah Gardner	set Kya Johnson	+0.7
31	17-14	MO ST	MO ST×4	Attack err	McKenzie Moeller		+0.5
32	18-14	MO ST	MO ST×4	Kill	Jenna Walters	set Halle Rillie	+0.4
33	18-15	MO ST	SIU	Kill	Ella Swansiger	set Alexandria Arrington	+0.2
34	19-15	SIU	MO ST	Kill	Hannah Gardner	set Halle Rillie	+0.3
35	19-16	MO ST	SIU×3	Kill	Ella Swansiger	set Alexandria Arrington	+0.2
36	19-17	SIU	SIU×3	Attack err	Jenna Walters		+0.5
37	19-18	SIU	SIU×3	Attack err	Hannah Gardner		+0.7
38	20-18	SIU	MO ST×3	Kill	Jenna Walters	set Halle Rillie	+0.6
39	21-18	MO ST	MO ST×3	Attack err	Ella Swansiger		+0.6
40	22-18	MO ST	MO ST×3	Kill	Hannah Redrow	set Hannah Gardner	+0.4
41	22-19	MO ST	SIU×4	Attack err	Jenna Walters	blk Chloe Anderson, Ella Swansiger	+0.2
42	22-20	SIU	SIU×4	Ace	SIU server	aced Kya Johnson	+0.4
43	22-21	SIU	SIU×4	Kill	McKenzie Moeller	set Jillian Shaneyfelt	+0.8
44	22-22	SIU	SIU×4	Kill	Alexandria Arrington	set Ella McFarland	+1.3
45	23-22	SIU	MO ST×3	Attack err	Ida Almkvist		+1.1
46	24-22	MO ST	MO ST×3	Kill	Rilynn Finley	set Riley Ourth	+1.3
47	25-22	MO ST	MO ST×3	Ace	MO ST server	aced Ida Almkvist	+0.6

Score shown after each rally, Missouri St. first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.