FinalSun, Sep 13, 2026

AwayPAC-12

0:3

HomeBIG-TEN

Southern California def. Oregon St. 3–0

(25-15, 25-21, 25-21)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
ORE ST	15	21	21	0
USC	25	25	25	3

RallyIQ model

Win probability

USC above 50 · ORE ST below

Biggest swing: 0.9% to Southern California — set 1, ORE ST 0-1 USC. Kill by Leah Ford. USC win probability 91% → 92%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

ORE ST 9.3%90.7% USC

Oregon St. wins

3-0

1.2%

3-1

2.8%

3-2

5.3%

Southern California wins

3-0

45.6%

3-1

31.5%

3-2

13.5%

ORE ST break %: 37.3% vs this opp
USC break %: 47.4% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Leah FordKill+0.9%
Kill by Leah Ford
Set 1 · ORE ST 0-1 USC · USC 91% → 92%
02
Cheyenne GreenKill+0.9%
Kill by Cheyenne Green (set by AC Froehlich)
Set 1 · ORE ST 10-12 USC · ORE ST 7% → 8%
03
Abigail MullenAttack error+0.9%
Attack error by Abigail Mullen
Set 2 · ORE ST 13-14 USC · ORE ST 4% → 4%
04
Taylor TreahyAttack error+0.8%
Attack error by Taylor Treahy
Set 1 · ORE ST 0-2 USC · USC 92% → 92%
05
USC serverAce+0.8%
Southern California ace on Team
Set 2 · ORE ST 14-17 USC · USC 96% → 97%
06
AC FroehlichAttack error+0.8%
Attack error by AC Froehlich
Set 1 · ORE ST 10-14 USC · USC 93% → 94%
07
Alana MarrsKill+0.8%
Kill by Alana Marrs (set by Jackie Matias)
Set 1 · ORE ST 4-6 USC · ORE ST 7% → 7%
08
Quinn LoperAttack error+0.7%
Quinn Loper stuffed by Alana Marrs & Jackie Matias
Set 2 · ORE ST 3-3 USC · ORE ST 4% → 5%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Oregon St.away

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
3AC FroehlichOH	3	9	4	28	.179	1	1	0	6	1	0	2	1	11
29Taylor TreahyOH	3	8	9	30	-.033	0	0	0	3	0	0	4	2	10
1Alana MarrsMB	3	5	3	12	.167	0	0	0	0	0	1	6	4	9
8Taray TelaMB	3	3	2	10	.100	0	2	3	2	0	0	1	0.5	5.5
15Cheyenne GreenOH	3	3	4	17	-.059	0	0	0	5	1	0	0	0	3
14Jackie MatiasS	3	1	0	2	.500	19	0	0	2	0	0	1	0.5	1.5
16Beatrice SpadaOPP	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4Isabel BertelsenL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	2	0	0	12	2	0	0	0	0
11Yasemin NarliogluL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	1	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	0
19Ivana CvetkovicMB	2	0	1	2	-.500	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
5Kama GoldsteinDS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
23Aly CoxS	1	0	0	0	–	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		29	23	101	.059	27	3	3	33	6	1	14	8	57

Southern Californiahome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
5Abigail MullenOPP	3	14	5	30	.300	2	0	1	4	0	0	5	2.5	16.5
7Leah FordMB	3	8	2	17	.353	0	2	1	3	0	2	4	4	14
1Adonia FaumuinaOH	3	8	4	22	.182	0	0	0	3	0	0	2	1	9
8Mia TvrdyMB	3	3	2	8	.125	0	0	0	0	0	0	5	2.5	5.5
16Lilli EtterS	3	1	0	5	.200	28	0	1	4	0	0	1	0.5	1.5
2London WijayOH	1	1	1	5	.000	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	1
10Quinn LoperOH	3	8	3	18	.278	0	4	3	1	0	0	1	0.5	12.5
3Layli OstovarOH	3	0	0	0	–	1	0	0	6	2	0	0	0	0
6Taylor DeckertL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	3	0	2	9	1	0	0	0	0
24Milly McGeeS	2	0	0	0	–	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
17Paisley DouglasL/DS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		43	17	105	.248	37	6	8	33	3	2	18	11	75

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 5 ORE ST · USC 5

Set 1

15-25

Longest run 2 ORE STUSC 5

Set 2

21-25

Longest run 3 ORE STUSC 5

Set 3

21-25

Longest run 5 ORE STUSC 5

Bars above the line = Southern California leads, below = Oregon St. leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Oregon St.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	38%8/21	33%3/9
2	50%7/14	27%3/11
3	46%6/13	53%8/15
4	67%6/9	33%3/9
5	50%5/10	0%0/6
6	71%5/7	38%3/8
All	50%37/74	34%20/58

Southern California

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	89%8/9	56%9/16
2	47%7/15	63%12/19
3	70%7/10	46%6/13
4	75%6/8	25%2/8
5	71%5/7	55%6/11
6	56%5/9	29%2/7
All	66%38/58	50%37/74

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

132 rallies

Rally log

#	ORE ST-USC	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	0-1	USC	USC×5	Kill	Leah Ford		+0.9
2	0-2	USC	USC×5	Attack err	Taylor Treahy		+0.8
3	0-3	USC	USC×5	Attack err	Taylor Treahy		+0.7
4	0-4	USC	USC×5	Attack err	Taray Tela		+0.6
5	0-5	USC	USC×5	Kill	Abigail Mullen	set Taylor Deckert	+0.5
6	1-5	USC	ORE ST	Kill	Jackie Matias		+0.3
7	2-5	ORE ST	ORE ST	Attack err	Abigail Mullen	blk Alana Marrs, Taylor Treahy	+0.6
8	2-6	ORE ST	USC	Kill	Leah Ford	set Lilli Etter	+0.4
9	3-6	USC	ORE ST	Kill	Cheyenne Green	set Jackie Matias	+0.5
10	4-6	ORE ST	ORE ST	Kill	Alana Marrs	set Jackie Matias	+0.8
11	4-7	ORE ST	USC	Kill	Abigail Mullen	set London Wijay	+0.6
12	4-8	USC	USC	Attack err	Alana Marrs		+0.7
13	5-8	USC	ORE ST	Attack err	London Wijay		+0.5
14	5-9	ORE ST	USC	Kill	London Wijay	set Lilli Etter	+0.5
15	6-9	USC	ORE ST	Kill	AC Froehlich	set Jackie Matias	+0.5
16	6-10	ORE ST	USC	Kill	Abigail Mullen	set Lilli Etter	+0.5
17	6-11	USC	USC	Attack err	Taray Tela		+0.5
18	7-11	USC	ORE ST	Kill	AC Froehlich	set Jackie Matias	+0.4
19	8-11	ORE ST	ORE ST	Attack err	Adonia Faumuina	blk Taray Tela, Taylor Treahy	+0.7
20	8-12	ORE ST	USC	Kill	Adonia Faumuina	set Abigail Mullen	+0.5
21	9-12	USC	ORE ST	Kill	AC Froehlich	set Jackie Matias	+0.5
22	10-12	ORE ST	ORE ST	Kill	Cheyenne Green	set AC Froehlich	+0.9
23	10-13	ORE ST	USC×3	Kill	Leah Ford	set Lilli Etter	+0.7
24	10-14	USC	USC×3	Attack err	AC Froehlich		+0.8
25	10-15	USC	USC×3	Attack err	Cheyenne Green	blk Abigail Mullen, Leah Ford	+0.6
26	11-15	USC	ORE ST	Kill	Taylor Treahy	set Jackie Matias	+0.4
27	11-16	ORE ST	USC×3	Serve err	ORE ST server		+0.4
28	11-17	USC	USC×3	Attack err	Alana Marrs		+0.4
29	11-18	USC	USC×3	Kill	Quinn Loper	set Lilli Etter	+0.2
30	12-18	USC	ORE ST	Kill	Alana Marrs	set Jackie Matias	+0.1
31	12-19	ORE ST	USC×5	Kill	Abigail Mullen	set Taylor Deckert	+0.2
32	12-20	USC	USC×5	Kill	Quinn Loper	set Lilli Etter	+0.1
33	12-21	USC	USC×5	Ace	USC server	aced AC Froehlich	+0.0
34	12-22	USC	USC×5	Kill	Quinn Loper	set Lilli Etter	+0.0
35	12-23	USC	USC×5	Attack err	Cheyenne Green	blk Mia Tvrdy, Abigail Mullen	+0.0
36	13-23	USC	ORE ST	Kill	Taylor Treahy	set Jackie Matias	+0.0
37	14-23	ORE ST	ORE ST	Kill	AC Froehlich	set Jackie Matias	+0.0
38	14-24	ORE ST	USC	Kill	Abigail Mullen	set Lilli Etter	+0.0
39	15-24	USC	ORE ST	Kill	AC Froehlich	set Isabel Bertelsen	+0.0
40	15-25	ORE ST	USC	Kill	Mia Tvrdy	set Milly McGee	+0.0
Set 2
1	0-1	ORE ST	USC	Kill	Adonia Faumuina	set Lilli Etter	+0.5
2	0-2	USC	USC	Kill	Abigail Mullen	set Lilli Etter	+0.6
3	1-2	USC	ORE ST	Kill	AC Froehlich	set Yasemin Narlioglu	+0.4
4	1-3	ORE ST	USC	Attack err	Alana Marrs	blk Leah Ford	+0.4
5	2-3	USC	ORE ST	Kill	AC Froehlich	set Isabel Bertelsen	+0.5
6	3-3	ORE ST	ORE ST	Attack err	Quinn Loper	blk Alana Marrs, Jackie Matias	+0.7
7	3-4	ORE ST	USC	Kill	Quinn Loper	set Lilli Etter	+0.5
8	4-4	USC	ORE ST	Kill	AC Froehlich	set Jackie Matias	+0.6
9	4-5	ORE ST	USC×3	Kill	Mia Tvrdy	set Lilli Etter	+0.5
10	4-6	USC	USC×3	Kill	Mia Tvrdy	set Lilli Etter	+0.6
11	4-7	USC	USC×3	Kill	Quinn Loper	set Lilli Etter	+0.6
12	5-7	USC	ORE ST	Kill	Taylor Treahy	set Jackie Matias	+0.4
13	5-8	ORE ST	USC	Kill	Quinn Loper	set Lilli Etter	+0.4
14	6-8	USC	ORE ST	Serve err	USC server		+0.4
15	7-8	ORE ST	ORE ST	Kill	Taray Tela	set Jackie Matias	+0.7
16	7-9	ORE ST	USC	Attack err	Taylor Treahy		+0.5
17	7-10	USC	USC	Kill	Cheyenne Green	set Jackie Matias	+0.6
18	8-10	USC	ORE ST	Serve err	USC server		+0.4
19	8-11	ORE ST	USC	Kill	Abigail Mullen	set Lilli Etter	+0.5
20	9-11	USC	ORE ST	Attack err	Abigail Mullen		+0.5
21	9-12	ORE ST	USC	Kill	Adonia Faumuina	set Lilli Etter	+0.5
22	10-12	USC	ORE ST	Kill	Taylor Treahy	set Jackie Matias	+0.5
23	10-13	ORE ST	USC	Kill	Abigail Mullen	set Taylor Deckert	+0.5
24	10-14	USC	USC	Ace	USC server	aced Yasemin Narlioglu	+0.5
25	11-14	USC	ORE ST×3	Serve err	USC server		+0.4
26	12-14	ORE ST	ORE ST×3	Ace	ORE ST server	aced Layli Ostovar	+0.7
27	13-14	ORE ST	ORE ST×3	Attack err	Abigail Mullen		+0.9
28	13-15	ORE ST	USC	Kill	Abigail Mullen	set Lilli Etter	+0.7
29	14-15	USC	ORE ST	Kill	Alana Marrs	set Jackie Matias	+0.7
30	14-16	ORE ST	USC	Attack err	Cheyenne Green		+0.7
31	14-17	USC	USC	Ace	USC server	aced Team	+0.8
32	15-17	USC	ORE ST	Serve err	USC server		+0.5
33	15-18	ORE ST	USC	Attack err	Taylor Treahy	blk Mia Tvrdy, Adonia Faumuina	+0.6
34	16-18	USC	ORE ST	Kill	Taray Tela	set Jackie Matias	+0.6
35	16-19	ORE ST	USC×5	Kill	Adonia Faumuina	set Abigail Mullen	+0.6
36	16-20	USC	USC×5	Attack err	Taylor Treahy	blk Adonia Faumuina, Leah Ford	+0.6
37	16-21	USC	USC×5	Attack err	AC Froehlich		+0.4
38	16-22	USC	USC×5	Attack err	AC Froehlich	blk Abigail Mullen, Leah Ford	+0.2
39	16-23	USC	USC×5	Kill	Leah Ford	set Lilli Etter	+0.1
40	17-23	USC	ORE ST×3	Serve err	USC server		+0.0
41	18-23	ORE ST	ORE ST×3	Attack err	Adonia Faumuina		+0.1
42	19-23	ORE ST	ORE ST×3	Attack err	Adonia Faumuina	blk Alana Marrs, AC Froehlich	+0.1
43	19-24	ORE ST	USC	Kill	Abigail Mullen	set Lilli Etter	+0.2
44	20-24	USC	ORE ST	Attack err	Quinn Loper	blk Alana Marrs, Taylor Treahy	+0.0
45	21-24	ORE ST	ORE ST	Kill	Alana Marrs	set Jackie Matias	+0.2
46	21-25	ORE ST	USC	Kill	Leah Ford	set Lilli Etter	+0.3
Set 3
1	0-1	USC	USC	Attack err	Taylor Treahy	blk Abigail Mullen, Leah Ford	+0.3
2	1-1	USC	ORE ST	Kill	Cheyenne Green	set Jackie Matias	+0.2
3	1-2	ORE ST	USC×5	Attack err	Ivana Cvetkovic	blk Leah Ford	+0.2
4	1-3	USC	USC×5	Kill	Abigail Mullen		+0.3
5	1-4	USC	USC×5	Kill	Lilli Etter	set Layli Ostovar	+0.2
6	1-5	USC	USC×5	Kill	Abigail Mullen	set Jackie Matias	+0.2
7	1-6	USC	USC×5	Attack err	Taylor Treahy		+0.2
8	2-6	USC	ORE ST×5	Kill	Taray Tela	set Jackie Matias	+0.1
9	3-6	ORE ST	ORE ST×5	Attack err	Quinn Loper	blk Taylor Treahy, Alana Marrs	+0.2
10	4-6	ORE ST	ORE ST×5	Attack err	Leah Ford		+0.2
11	5-6	ORE ST	ORE ST×5	Ace	ORE ST server	aced Taylor Deckert	+0.3
12	6-6	ORE ST	ORE ST×5	Ace	ORE ST server	aced Layli Ostovar	+0.4
13	6-7	ORE ST	USC	Serve err	ORE ST server		+0.3
14	6-8	USC	USC	Kill	Abigail Mullen		+0.3
15	7-8	USC	ORE ST	Attack err	Mia Tvrdy	blk Alana Marrs	+0.2
16	7-9	ORE ST	USC	Kill	Quinn Loper	set Lilli Etter	+0.2
17	7-10	USC	USC	Kill	Quinn Loper	set Lilli Etter	+0.3
18	8-10	USC	ORE ST	Kill	AC Froehlich	set Aly Cox	+0.2
19	8-11	ORE ST	USC	Attack err	Taylor Treahy	blk Mia Tvrdy, Quinn Loper	+0.2
20	9-11	USC	ORE ST	Kill	Alana Marrs	set Aly Cox	+0.2
21	9-12	ORE ST	USC	Kill	Adonia Faumuina	set Lilli Etter	+0.2
22	10-12	USC	ORE ST	Serve err	USC server		+0.2
23	11-12	ORE ST	ORE ST	Attack err	Leah Ford		+0.4
24	11-13	ORE ST	USC	Kill	Leah Ford	set Lilli Etter	+0.3
25	12-13	USC	ORE ST	Attack err	Abigail Mullen		+0.3
26	12-14	ORE ST	USC	Kill	Adonia Faumuina	set Lilli Etter	+0.3
27	12-15	USC	USC	Kill	Leah Ford	set Jackie Matias	+0.3
28	13-15	USC	ORE ST	Kill	Taylor Treahy	set Jackie Matias	+0.2
29	14-15	ORE ST	ORE ST	Attack err	Abigail Mullen	blk Alana Marrs, AC Froehlich	+0.4
30	14-16	ORE ST	USC	Serve err	ORE ST server		+0.3
31	15-16	USC	ORE ST	Kill	Taylor Treahy	set Jackie Matias	+0.3
32	15-17	ORE ST	USC	Attack err	AC Froehlich	blk Mia Tvrdy, Abigail Mullen	+0.3
33	16-17	USC	ORE ST	Serve err	USC server		+0.4
34	16-18	ORE ST	USC×4	Attack err	Taylor Treahy		+0.4
35	16-19	USC	USC×4	Ace	USC server	aced Cheyenne Green	+0.4
36	16-20	USC	USC×4	Ace	USC server	aced Isabel Bertelsen	+0.3
37	16-21	USC	USC×4	Ace	USC server	aced Isabel Bertelsen	+0.2
38	17-21	USC	ORE ST	Serve err	USC server		+0.1
39	18-21	ORE ST	ORE ST	Attack err	Mia Tvrdy		+0.2
40	18-22	ORE ST	USC	Attack err	Cheyenne Green		+0.2
41	18-23	USC	USC	Kill	Adonia Faumuina	set Milly McGee	+0.1
42	19-23	USC	ORE ST	Kill	Taylor Treahy	set Aly Cox	+0.0
43	20-23	ORE ST	ORE ST	Attack err	Adonia Faumuina		+0.1
44	20-24	ORE ST	USC	Kill	Adonia Faumuina	set Lilli Etter	+0.2
45	21-24	USC	ORE ST	Kill	Taylor Treahy	set Aly Cox	+0.1
46	21-25	ORE ST	USC	Kill	Leah Ford	set Lilli Etter	+0.1

Score shown after each rally, Oregon St. first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.