FinalFri, Sep 11, 2026

Old Dominion def. Navy 3–0

Old Dominion beat visiting Navy 3-0 (29-27, 25-21, 25-21) on Fri, Sep 11, 2026. Old Dominion's Leilani Lawrence led with 19 kills, and Ashlyn Gent added 9 digs.

Data through · final Sep 11

Set123Sets
NAVY2721210
ODU2925253

Win probability

Old Dominion above 50 · Navy below
SET 1SET 2SET 310050100+9.7% ODUrally 148 · set 3

Biggest swing: 9.7% to Old Dominion — set 1, NAVY 23-24 ODU. Kill by Emma Schelah (set by Wiktoria Zagumny). ODU win probability 54% → 64%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

NAVY 44.0%56.0% ODU

Navy wins

3-0
10.2%
3-1
16.3%
3-2
17.6%

Old Dominion wins

3-0
15.2%
3-1
21.2%
3-2
19.6%
NAVY break %
43.5% vs this opp
ODU break %
44.7% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Emma SchelahKill+9.7%

    Kill by Emma Schelah (set by Wiktoria Zagumny)

    Set 1 · NAVY 23-24 ODU · ODU 54% → 64%

  2. 02
    Elisa MaggiKill+9.5%

    Kill by Elisa Maggi (set by Wiktoria Zagumny)

    Set 1 · NAVY 27-29 ODU · ODU 64% → 74%

  3. 03
    Leilani LawrenceAttack error+7.8%

    Attack error by Leilani Lawrence

    Set 1 · NAVY 23-22 ODU · NAVY 44% → 51%

  4. 04

    Kill by Ellen Gundlach (set by Caroline Adams)

    Set 1 · NAVY 24-24 ODU · NAVY 36% → 44%

  5. 05

    Kill by Leilani Lawrence (set by Wiktoria Zagumny)

    Set 1 · NAVY 24-25 ODU · ODU 56% → 64%

  6. 06

    Kill by Caroline Buffum (set by Isa Boyd)

    Set 1 · NAVY 25-25 ODU · NAVY 36% → 44%

  7. 07

    Kill by Leilani Lawrence (set by Wiktoria Zagumny)

    Set 1 · NAVY 25-26 ODU · ODU 56% → 64%

  8. 08
    Farrah EikeKill+7.6%

    Kill by Farrah Eike (set by Amara Chambers)

    Set 1 · NAVY 26-26 ODU · NAVY 36% → 44%

Box score

Official NCAA box

Navyaway
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
317440.3251014200017
3429.222000100215
3316.33301110010.54.5
3317.286000300214
3000–001210000
3000–16011200000
36114.35700001010.56.5
31011.0001341100005
34613-.154000100004
3000–632400003
1000–000000000
1000–000000000
Team totals381590.256368729506369
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
319534.41202364010.521.5
311123.4351102200012
3709.77801210031.59.5
38417.23500000010.58.5
3429.22200000010.54.5
31011.0004312601224
31011.000202500001
3000–100920000
3000–000200000
Team totals511294.415475931818579

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 5 NAVY · ODU 8

Set 1

27-29

Longest run 5 NAVYODU 5

Set 2

21-25

Longest run 4 NAVYODU 8

Set 3

21-25

Longest run 2 NAVYODU 3

Bars above the line = Old Dominion leads, below = Navy leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Navy

SlotSideout %Break %
1
60%3/5
50%3/6
2
100%2/2
25%1/4
3
22%2/9
50%2/4
4
67%2/3
0%0/2
5
100%2/2
33%1/3
6
67%2/3
33%1/3
All
54%13/24
36%8/22

Old Dominion

SlotSideout %Break %
1
50%3/6
33%1/3
2
75%3/4
40%2/5
3
50%2/4
0%0/2
4
100%2/2
78%7/9
5
67%2/3
33%1/3
6
67%2/3
0%0/2
All
64%14/22
46%11/24

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (1 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

148 rallies

#NAVY-ODUSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
10-1ODUODU×3Attack errGrace Burgoyne+2.4
20-2ODUODU×3KillLeilani Lawrence+2.3
30-3ODUODU×3Attack errFarrah Eike+2.2
41-3ODUNAVY×5KillFarrah Eikeset Isa Boyd+1.7
52-3NAVYNAVY×5KillFarrah Eikeset Isa Boyd+2.3
63-3NAVYNAVY×5AceNavyaced Elisa Maggi+2.5
74-3NAVYNAVY×5AceNavyaced Leilani Lawrence+2.6
85-3NAVYNAVY×5KillGrace Burgoyneset Isa Boyd+2.6
95-4NAVYODUKillLeilani Lawrenceset Ashlyn Gent+2.0
106-4ODUNAVY×3Serve errOld Dominion+2.1
117-4NAVYNAVY×3AceNavyaced Leilani Lawrence+2.6
128-4NAVYNAVY×3KillFarrah Eike+2.5
138-5NAVYODUKillEmma DiRoccoset Wiktoria Zagumny+1.7
149-5ODUNAVYAttack errKatie Rakoski+2.0
1510-5NAVYNAVYBlockedKatie Rakoskiblk Caroline Buffum, Avery Maddux+2.3
1610-6NAVYODUKillKatie Rakoskiset Wiktoria Zagumny+1.5
1711-6ODUNAVYKillEllen Gundlachset Caroline Adams+1.8
1811-7NAVYODUAttack errEllen Gundlach+1.5
1911-8ODUODUKillLeilani Lawrenceset Wiktoria Zagumny+2.3
2012-8ODUNAVYKillSiena Morganset Caroline Adams+2.1
2112-9NAVYODUServe errNavy+1.8
2212-10ODUODUKillLeilani Lawrenceset Wiktoria Zagumny+2.7
2313-10ODUNAVYServe errOld Dominion+2.4
2413-11NAVYODUKillLeilani Lawrenceset Elisa Maggi+2.1
2513-12ODUODUBlockedSiena Morganblk Leilani Lawrence, Emma DiRocco+3.1
2614-12ODUNAVYKillFarrah Eikeset Isa Boyd+2.7
2715-12NAVYNAVYAceNavyaced Leilani Lawrence+3.3
2815-13NAVYODU×5KillLeilani Lawrenceset Wiktoria Zagumny+2.2
2915-14ODU
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+3.3
3015-15ODUODU×5KillElisa Maggiset Wiktoria Zagumny+3.7
3115-16ODUODU×5AceOld Dominionaced Farrah Eike+3.8
3215-17ODUODU×5Attack errFarrah Eike+3.7
3316-17ODUNAVY×5Serve errOld Dominion+2.7
3417-17NAVYNAVY×5KillFarrah Eikeset Caroline Adams+4.0
3518-17NAVYNAVY×5Attack errEmma DiRocco+4.4
3619-17NAVYNAVY×5AceNavyaced Ashlyn Gent+4.4
3720-17NAVYNAVY×5AceNavyaced Leilani Lawrence+4.0
3820-18NAVYODUServe errNavy+2.5
3921-18ODUNAVYKillFarrah Eikeset Caroline Adams+3.3
4021-19NAVYODU×4KillKatie Rakoskiset Wiktoria Zagumny+2.5
4121-20ODUODU×4KillWiktoria Zagumnyset Adrienne Peji+4.3
4221-21ODUODU×4KillElisa Maggiset Wiktoria Zagumny+5.6
4321-22ODUODU×4Attack errEllen Gundlach+6.4
4422-22ODUNAVYKillEllen Gundlachset Amara Chambers+4.9
4523-22NAVYNAVYAttack errLeilani Lawrence+7.8
4623-23NAVYODUKillElisa Maggiset Wiktoria Zagumny+5.9
4723-24ODUODUKillEmma Schelahset Wiktoria Zagumny+9.7
4824-24ODUNAVYKillEllen Gundlachset Caroline Adams+7.6
4924-25NAVYODUKillLeilani Lawrenceset Wiktoria Zagumny+7.6
5025-25ODUNAVYKillCaroline Buffumset Isa Boyd+7.6
5125-26NAVYODUKillLeilani Lawrenceset Wiktoria Zagumny+7.6
5226-26ODUNAVYKillFarrah Eikeset Amara Chambers+7.6
5326-27NAVYODUKillLeilani Lawrenceset Wiktoria Zagumny+7.6
5427-27ODUNAVYKillFarrah Eikeset Isa Boyd+7.6
5527-28NAVYODUKillElisa Maggiset Wiktoria Zagumny+7.6
5627-29ODUODUKillElisa Maggiset Wiktoria Zagumny+9.5
Set 2
10-1NAVYODUKillLeilani Lawrenceset Wiktoria Zagumny+1.8
21-1ODUNAVYKillGrace Burgoyneset Isa Boyd+1.8
31-2NAVYODUKillLeilani Lawrenceset Wiktoria Zagumny+1.8
42-2ODUNAVYServe errOld Dominion+1.8
53-2NAVYNAVYAceNavyaced Elisa Maggi+2.4
63-3NAVYODUKillKatie Rakoskiset Wiktoria Zagumny+1.8
74-3ODUNAVYKillCaroline Adamsset Farrah Eike+1.9
84-4NAVYODUKillEmma Schelahset Wiktoria Zagumny+1.9
94-5ODUODUKillEmma Schelah+2.4
105-5ODUNAVYServe errOld Dominion+1.9
115-6NAVYODUBlockedCaroline Buffumblk Wiktoria Zagumny+2.0
126-6ODUNAVYKillEllen Gundlachset Caroline Adams+2.0
137-6NAVYNAVYBlockedLeilani Lawrenceblk Grace Burgoyne, Siena Morgan+2.6
147-7NAVYODUKillLeilani Lawrenceset Adrienne Peji+2.0
157-8ODUODUAceOld Dominionaced Caroline Buffum+2.6
168-8ODUNAVY×4KillCaroline Buffumset Isa Boyd+2.1
179-8NAVYNAVY×4KillGrace Burgoyneset Amara Chambers+2.8
1810-8NAVYNAVY×4KillFarrah Eikeset Amara Chambers+2.8
1911-8NAVYNAVY×4Serve errNavy+2.7
2011-9NAVYODUServe errNavy+1.9
2111-10ODUODUKillLeilani Lawrenceset Wiktoria Zagumny+2.7
2212-10ODUNAVYServe errOld Dominion+2.4
2312-11NAVYODUKillEmma DiRoccoset Wiktoria Zagumny+2.2
2413-11ODUNAVYKillFarrah Eikeset Isa Boyd+2.5
2514-11NAVYNAVYAttack errKatie Rakoski+3.0
2614-12NAVYODU×8KillKatie Rakoskiset Wiktoria Zagumny+2.1
2714-13ODUODU×8KillKatie Rakoski+3.0
2814-14ODUODU×8Attack errFarrah Eike+3.3
2914-15ODUODU×8KillEmma Schelahset Wiktoria Zagumny+3.4
3014-16ODUODU×8BlockedFarrah Eikeblk Emma Schelah, Katie Rakoski+3.4
3114-17ODUODU×8KillElisa Maggiset Wiktoria Zagumny+3.1
3214-18ODUODU×8KillKatie Rakoskiset Wiktoria Zagumny+2.6
3314-19ODUODU×8KillEmma Schelahset Wiktoria Zagumny+2.0
3415-19ODUNAVYAttack errKatie Rakoski+1.1
3515-20NAVYODUServe errNavy+1.5
3616-20ODUNAVYKillAvery Madduxset Caroline Adams+1.0
3717-20NAVYNAVYAceNavyaced Ashlyn Gent+1.9
3817-21NAVYODUServe errNavy+2.1
3918-21ODUNAVYAttack errLeilani Lawrence+1.4
4018-22NAVYODUKillEmma Schelahset Wiktoria Zagumny+2.1
4119-22ODUNAVYServe errOld Dominion+1.3
4219-23NAVYODUKillLeilani Lawrenceset Wiktoria Zagumny+2.0
4319-24ODUODUKillKatie Rakoskiset Wiktoria Zagumny+1.2
4420-24ODUNAVYServe errOld Dominion+0.3
4521-24NAVYNAVYKillFarrah Eikeset Isa Boyd+0.8
4621-25NAVYODUServe errNavy+1.3
Set 3
10-1ODU
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+1.4
21-1ODUNAVYKillSiena Morganset Isa Boyd+1.1
31-2NAVYODUServe errNavy+1.1
41-3ODUODUAttack errAvery Maddux+1.4
52-3ODUNAVYKillFarrah Eikeset Isa Boyd+1.1
62-4NAVYODUKillElisa Maggiset Wiktoria Zagumny+1.1
73-4ODUNAVYKillFarrah Eikeset Caroline Adams+1.1
84-4NAVYNAVYBad setWiktoria Zagumny+1.5
94-5NAVYODUKillKatie Rakoskiset Wiktoria Zagumny+1.2
105-5ODUNAVYKillCaroline Buffumset Amara Chambers+1.2
115-6NAVYODU×3Attack errEllen Gundlach+1.2
125-7ODUODU×3KillLeilani Lawrenceset Wiktoria Zagumny+1.5
135-8ODUODU×3AceOld Dominionaced Farrah Eike+1.4
146-8ODUNAVYKillSiena Morganset Caroline Adams+1.1
157-8NAVYNAVYBlockedLeilani Lawrenceblk Siena Morgan, Grace Burgoyne+1.5
167-9NAVYODUKillLeilani Lawrenceset Wiktoria Zagumny+1.3
178-9ODUNAVYKillCaroline Buffumset Isa Boyd+1.2
188-10NAVYODUKillElisa Maggiset Wiktoria Zagumny+1.3
199-10ODUNAVYKillFarrah Eikeset Isa Boyd+1.3
2010-10NAVYNAVYKillFarrah Eike+1.7
2110-11NAVYODUKillLeilani Lawrenceset Wiktoria Zagumny+1.4
2211-11ODUNAVYKillFarrah Eikeset Isa Boyd+1.4
2311-12NAVYODUKillEmma DiRoccoset Wiktoria Zagumny+1.5
2412-12ODUNAVYKillAvery Madduxset Caroline Adams+1.5
2513-12NAVYNAVYKillAvery Madduxset Caroline Adams+2.0
2613-13NAVYODUKillElisa Maggiset Wiktoria Zagumny+1.5
2713-14ODUODUBad setCaroline Adams+2.0
2814-14ODUNAVYKillCaroline Buffumset Caroline Adams+1.6
2914-15NAVYODUKillElisa Maggiset Wiktoria Zagumny+1.7
3014-16ODUODUAttack errSiena Morgan+2.1
3115-16ODUNAVYKillCaroline Buffumset Caroline Adams+1.5
3215-17NAVYODUKillAdrienne Peji+1.7
3316-17ODUNAVYServe errOld Dominion+1.6
3416-18NAVYODUKillLeilani Lawrenceset Wiktoria Zagumny+1.8
3517-18ODUNAVYKillSiena Morganset Isa Boyd+1.7
3618-18NAVYNAVYAttack errLeilani Lawrence+2.5
3718-19NAVYODUKillLeilani Lawrenceset Wiktoria Zagumny+2.1
3819-19ODUNAVYKillFarrah Eikeset Amara Chambers+2.1
3919-20NAVYODUKillEmma DiRoccoset Wiktoria Zagumny+2.3
4020-20ODUNAVYAttack errElisa Maggi+2.3
4120-21NAVYODU×3KillElisa Maggiset Wiktoria Zagumny+2.6
4220-22ODUODU×3BlockedEllen Gundlachblk Emma Schelah, Wiktoria Zagumny+3.2
4320-23ODUODU×3Attack errEllen Gundlach+2.5
4421-23ODUNAVYServe errOld Dominion+1.2
4521-24NAVYODUKillEmma Schelahset Wiktoria Zagumny+2.0
4621-25ODUODUBlockedEllen Gundlachblk Emma Schelah, Wiktoria Zagumny+1.1

Score shown after each rally, Navy first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).