Final · 4 setsFri, Oct 30, 2026Watch on YouTube

Navy def. Lafayette 3–1

RallyIQ pre-match: Navy 66.5% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Oct 30, 5:55 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Navy won at Lafayette 3-1 (26-28, 25-23, 25-18, 25-22) on Fri, Oct 30, 2026. Navy's Ellen Gundlach led with 15 kills, and Amara Chambers added 25 digs.

Data through · final Oct 30

Set1234Sets
NAVY262525253
LAFAYE282318221

Match story · written from the play-by-play

Amara Chambers dug 25 balls to keep Navy alive against Lafayette.

The match turned 3 times. Numbers are Navy's win probability from the RallyIQ model, rally by rally. RallyIQ gave Navy 66% before first serve.

  1. Turning point 1: Set 1 · Navy 25–25 Lafayette

    Lafayette won 3 of the last 4 rallies to take the set 28–26 and lead 1–0. The match swung to Lafayette.

    Navy 65% → 45%

  2. Turning point 2: Set 2 · Navy 22–22 Lafayette

    Navy closed it, 3 of the final 4 rallies, to take the set 25–23 and level the match at 1–1. The match swung to Navy.

    Navy 44% → 63%

  3. Turning point 3: Set 4 · Navy 22–22 Lafayette

    From 22–22, Navy scored 3 straight to lead 25–22.

    Navy 81% → >99%

Lafayette above 50Navy belowMax swing 10.3%

NavyLafayette

Sideout %
Navy 55.4·Lafayette 50.0
Break %
Navy 50.0·Lafayette 44.6
Hitting
Navy .236·Lafayette .172
Longest run
Navy 6·Lafayette 5

Caroline Buffum
2 of her kills came in the stretches above. 14 K, .257, 15 points.

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Lafayette above 50 · Navy below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100+10.3% LAFAYErally 192 · set 4

Biggest swing: 10.3% to Lafayette — set 1, NAVY 26-28 LAFAYE. Attack error by Paige Buzzerio. LAFAYE win probability 44% → 55%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

NAVY 64.4%35.6% LAFAYE

Navy wins

3-0
19.6%
3-1
24.7%
3-2
20.0%

Lafayette wins

3-0
7.3%
3-1
12.8%
3-2
15.5%
NAVY break %
45.7% vs this opp
LAFAYE break %
42.9% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Paige BuzzerioAttack error+10.3%

    Attack error by Paige Buzzerio

    Set 1 · NAVY 26-28 LAFAYE · LAFAYE 44% → 55%

  2. 02
    Caroline BuffumKill+10.1%

    Kill by Caroline Buffum (set by Isa Boyd)

    Set 2 · NAVY 25-23 LAFAYE · NAVY 53% → 63%

  3. 03
    Paige BuzzerioAttack error+9.6%

    Attack error by Paige Buzzerio

    Set 1 · NAVY 25-26 LAFAYE · LAFAYE 35% → 44%

  4. 04
    LafayetteAce+8.9%

    Lafayette ace

    Set 1 · NAVY 24-24 LAFAYE · LAFAYE 26% → 35%

  5. 05
    Siena MorganKill+8.5%

    Kill by Siena Morgan (set by Isa Boyd)

    Set 2 · NAVY 24-23 LAFAYE · NAVY 44% → 53%

  6. 06
    Justine PuigAttack error+7.8%

    Attack error by Justine Puig

    Set 4 · NAVY 24-22 LAFAYE · NAVY 88% → 96%

  7. 07

    Kill by Ellen Gundlach (set by Isa Boyd)

    Set 1 · NAVY 26-26 LAFAYE · NAVY 56% → 63%

  8. 08
    NavyService error+7.6%

    Navy service error

    Set 1 · NAVY 26-27 LAFAYE · LAFAYE 37% → 44%

Box score

Official NCAA box

Navyaway
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
415634.2650015004217
45011.455000200638
46420.100200410006
4339.000021400216
4102.500012500002
4004.00033111200001
414535.25701010000015
413331.32300071031.514.5
4002.0006322510003
41011.0002201700001
37222.22720020010.57.5
1013-.333000200000
Team totals6524174.23665888560168101
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
413122.5450004002114
49537.10821017202111
48523.1300122004211
45226.1152011410216
4113.0001941700005
33311.00000000010.53.5
46322.13600020010.56.5
4001.0002002110000
4001.0002500300000
37323.174000200007
Team totals5223169.1725064728012691

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Navy vs Lafayette

Season series · Navy leads 2-0

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 6 NAVY · LAFAYE 5

Set 1

26-28

Longest run 4 NAVYLAFAYE 5

Set 2

25-23

Longest run 5 NAVYLAFAYE 4

Set 3

25-18

Longest run 5 NAVYLAFAYE 4

Set 4

25-22

Longest run 6 NAVYLAFAYE 3

Bars above the line = Lafayette leads, below = Navy leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Navy

SlotSideout %Break %
1
55%11/20
50%9/18
2
64%9/14
72%23/32
3
47%8/17
40%6/15
4
67%8/12
33%4/12
5
53%8/15
38%5/13
6
50%7/14
30%3/10
All
55%51/92
50%50/100

Lafayette

SlotSideout %Break %
1
50%11/22
47%8/17
2
33%9/27
35%6/17
3
57%8/14
47%7/15
4
62%8/13
47%7/15
5
70%7/10
47%7/15
6
50%7/14
46%6/13
All
50%50/100
45%41/92

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

192 rallies

#NAVY-LAFAYESrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
11-0LAFAYENAVYBlockedJohanna Grogerblk Ellen Gundlach, Siena Morgan+1.7
22-0NAVYNAVYAttack errPaige Chmura+2.1
32-1NAVYLAFAYEKillJohanna Grogerset Mackenzie Calhoun+1.6
43-1LAFAYENAVY×3KillEllen Gundlachset Paige Buzzerio+1.6
54-1NAVYNAVY×3KillGrace Burgoyneset Caroline Adams+2.0
65-1NAVYNAVY×3KillPaige Buzzerioset Caroline Adams+1.8
75-2NAVYLAFAYEServe errNavy+1.3
86-2LAFAYENAVYKillGrace Burgoyneset Caroline Adams+1.4
96-3NAVYLAFAYE×3KillJustine Puigset Mackenzie Calhoun+1.3
106-4LAFAYELAFAYE×3KillJada Aksuset LK LaMonica+2.0
116-5LAFAYELAFAYE×3KillJustine Puigset Alyssa Chu+2.2
127-5LAFAYENAVY×3BlockedJada Aksublk Avery Maddux, Farrah Eike+1.8
138-5NAVYNAVY×3Attack errJustine Puig+2.2
149-5NAVYNAVY×3KillFarrah Eikeset Paige Buzzerio+1.9
159-6NAVYLAFAYE×5Serve errNavy+1.4
169-7LAFAYELAFAYE×5KillNoa Kamphuisset LK LaMonica+2.1
179-8LAFAYELAFAYE×5AceLafayetteaced Paige Buzzerio+2.4
189-9LAFAYELAFAYE×5KillNoa Kamphuisset Destiny McKenzie+2.7
199-10LAFAYELAFAYE×5KillDestiny McKenzieset LK LaMonica+2.9
2010-10LAFAYENAVYKillCaroline Buffumset Caroline Adams+2.2
2110-11NAVYLAFAYEServe errNavy+2.4
2210-12LAFAYELAFAYEKillJada Aksuset LK LaMonica+3.1
2311-12LAFAYENAVY×4KillCaroline Buffumset Isa Boyd+2.3
2412-12NAVYNAVY×4KillPaige Buzzerioset Isa Boyd+3.0
2513-12NAVYNAVY×4KillEllen Gundlachset Isa Boyd+3.1
2614-12NAVYNAVY×4BlockedDestiny McKenzieblk Ellen Gundlach, Siena Morgan+2.9
2714-13NAVYLAFAYE×4KillJada Aksuset LK LaMonica+2.2
2814-14LAFAYELAFAYE×4KillJohanna Grogerset Mackenzie Calhoun+3.2
2914-15LAFAYELAFAYE×4KillDestiny McKenzie+3.6
3014-16LAFAYELAFAYE×4KillJohanna Grogerset Mackenzie Calhoun+3.7
3115-16LAFAYENAVY×3Serve errLafayette+2.6
3216-16NAVYNAVY×3Attack errMackenzie Calhoun+3.6
3317-16NAVYNAVY×3Attack errPaige Chmura+3.7
3417-17NAVYLAFAYEServe errNavy+3.0
3518-17LAFAYENAVYKillAvery Madduxset Isa Boyd+3.1
3618-18NAVYLAFAYEKillPaige Chmuraset Mackenzie Calhoun+3.2
3718-19LAFAYELAFAYEAttack errHailey Jacobus+4.6
3819-19LAFAYENAVYKillGrace Burgoyneset Caroline Adams+3.4
3919-20NAVYLAFAYEKillMackenzie Calhounset Justine Puig+3.9
4020-20LAFAYENAVYKillGrace Burgoyneset Caroline Adams+3.8
4121-20NAVYNAVYAceNavy+5.2
4221-21NAVYLAFAYEBlockedFarrah Eikeblk Jada Aksu, Noa Kamphuis+4.1
4322-21LAFAYENAVYKillFarrah Eikeset Caroline Adams+4.6
4422-22NAVYLAFAYEKillNoa Kamphuisset LK LaMonica+4.6
4523-22LAFAYENAVYKillFarrah Eikeset Isa Boyd+5.5
4624-22NAVYNAVYAttack errJada Aksu+6.4
4724-23NAVYLAFAYEKillJohanna Grogerset LK LaMonica+3.0
4824-24LAFAYELAFAYEAceLafayette+8.9
4925-24LAFAYENAVYBlockedPaige Chmurablk Ellen Gundlach, Siena Morgan+7.0
5025-25NAVYLAFAYEAttack errPaige Buzzerio+7.0
5125-26LAFAYELAFAYEAttack errPaige Buzzerio+9.6
5226-26LAFAYENAVYKillEllen Gundlachset Isa Boyd+7.6
5326-27NAVYLAFAYEServe errNavy+7.6
5426-28LAFAYELAFAYEAttack errPaige Buzzerio+10.3
Set 2
11-0NAVYNAVYKillEllen Gundlachset Isa Boyd+2.6
21-1NAVYLAFAYEKillJohanna Grogerset Mackenzie Calhoun+2.1
32-1LAFAYENAVYKillCaroline Buffumset Isa Boyd+2.1
43-1NAVYNAVYAttack errJohanna Groger+2.6
53-2NAVYLAFAYEAttack errCaroline Buffum+2.0
63-3LAFAYELAFAYEBlockedEllen Gundlachblk Noa Kamphuis, Justine Puig+2.8
74-3LAFAYENAVYServe errLafayette+2.2
84-4NAVYLAFAYEKillNoa Kamphuisset Mackenzie Calhoun+2.2
95-4LAFAYENAVYKillGrace Burgoyneset Caroline Adams+2.2
105-5NAVYLAFAYEKillNoa Kamphuisset LK LaMonica+2.3
115-6LAFAYELAFAYEBad setCaroline Adams+3.1
126-6LAFAYENAVYKillFarrah Eikeset Caroline Adams+2.4
136-7NAVYLAFAYEKillNoa Kamphuisset LK LaMonica+2.5
147-7LAFAYENAVYKillSiena Morganset Caroline Adams+2.4
157-8NAVYLAFAYEKillJohanna Grogerset LK LaMonica+2.6
168-8LAFAYENAVYKillSiena Morganset Isa Boyd+2.5
179-8NAVYNAVYKillEllen Gundlachset Isa Boyd+3.2
189-9NAVYLAFAYEBlockedEllen Gundlachblk Paige Chmura, Johanna Groger+2.6
199-10LAFAYELAFAYEKillJohanna Grogerset Mackenzie Calhoun+3.5
2010-10LAFAYENAVY×5Attack errJohanna Groger+2.7
2111-10NAVYNAVY×5Attack errJohanna Groger+3.4
2212-10NAVYNAVY×5AceNavy+3.3
2313-10NAVYNAVY×5AceNavy+3.0
2414-10NAVYNAVY×5KillEllen Gundlachset Amara Chambers+2.6
2514-11NAVYLAFAYEServe errNavy+1.8
2614-12LAFAYELAFAYEAttack errAvery Maddux+2.8
2715-12LAFAYENAVY×3KillCaroline Buffumset Isa Boyd+2.5
2816-12NAVYNAVY×3KillCaroline Buffumset Amara Chambers+2.7
2917-12NAVYNAVY×3KillGrace Burgoyneset Caroline Adams+2.1
3017-13NAVYLAFAYE×4KillNoa Kamphuisset Mackenzie Calhoun+1.3
3117-14LAFAYELAFAYE×4KillJada Aksuset LK LaMonica+2.3
3217-15LAFAYELAFAYE×4KillNoa Kamphuisset LK LaMonica+3.0
3317-16LAFAYELAFAYE×4KillJustine Puigset LK LaMonica+3.8
3418-16LAFAYENAVYKillGrace Burgoyneset Caroline Adams+3.4
3519-16NAVYNAVYAttack errJustine Puig+3.8
3619-17NAVYLAFAYEKillJustine Puigset LK LaMonica+2.5
3720-17LAFAYENAVYKillAvery Madduxset Caroline Adams+3.1
3820-18NAVYLAFAYEKillNoa Kamphuisset LK LaMonica+2.5
3920-19LAFAYELAFAYEBlockedGrace Burgoyneblk Destiny McKenzie, Johanna Groger+4.4
4021-19LAFAYENAVYKillFarrah Eikeset Grace Burgoyne+4.2
4122-19NAVYNAVYAceNavy+4.3
4222-20NAVYLAFAYE×3Attack errEllen Gundlach+2.4
4322-21LAFAYELAFAYE×3AceLafayette+4.8
4422-22LAFAYELAFAYE×3AceLafayetteaced Farrah Eike+7.1
4523-22LAFAYENAVYKillPaige Buzzerioset Isa Boyd+6.7
4623-23NAVYLAFAYEKillAuma Mbeche-Odhiamboset Justine Puig+6.6
4724-23LAFAYENAVYKillSiena Morganset Isa Boyd+8.5
4825-23NAVYNAVYKillCaroline Buffumset Isa Boyd+10.1
Set 3
10-1LAFAYELAFAYEAceLafayetteaced Amara Chambers+3.1
21-1LAFAYENAVYKillSiena Morganset Isa Boyd+2.4
32-1NAVYNAVYAttack errNoa Kamphuis+3.0
42-2NAVYLAFAYEAttack errAvery Maddux+2.4
53-2LAFAYENAVYKillAvery Madduxset Isa Boyd+2.4
64-2NAVYNAVYKillCaroline Adamsset Amara Chambers+3.0
74-3NAVYLAFAYEAttack errCaroline Buffum+2.3
85-3LAFAYENAVY×4KillCaroline Buffumset Amara Chambers+2.4
96-3NAVYNAVY×4BlockedJohanna Grogerblk Grace Burgoyne, Avery Maddux+2.8
107-3NAVYNAVY×4AceNavyaced Justine Puig+2.6
118-3NAVYNAVY×4KillFarrah Eikeset Caroline Adams+2.2
128-4NAVYLAFAYEKillJada Aksuset Mackenzie Calhoun+1.5
139-4LAFAYENAVYKillFarrah Eikeset Caroline Adams+1.7
149-5NAVYLAFAYEKillAuma Mbeche-Odhiamboset Destiny McKenzie+1.6
1510-5LAFAYENAVYKillFarrah Eikeset Grace Burgoyne+1.8
1610-6NAVYLAFAYE×4KillJohanna Grogerset LK LaMonica+1.6
1710-7LAFAYELAFAYE×4KillDestiny McKenzie+2.4
1810-8LAFAYELAFAYE×4KillAuma Mbeche-Odhiamboset LK LaMonica+2.9
1910-9LAFAYELAFAYE×4AceLafayette+3.4
2011-9LAFAYENAVY×3BlockedAuma Mbeche-Odhiamboblk Farrah Eike, Siena Morgan+2.8
2112-9NAVYNAVY×3AceNavyaced Justine Puig+3.3
2213-9NAVYNAVY×3KillCaroline Buffumset Isa Boyd+2.9
2313-10NAVYLAFAYEKillNoa Kamphuisset LK LaMonica+2.0
2414-10LAFAYENAVY×5BlockedJada Aksublk Siena Morgan, Ellen Gundlach+2.3
2515-10NAVYNAVY×5AceNavyaced Destiny McKenzie+2.4
2616-10NAVYNAVY×5KillEllen Gundlachset Isa Boyd+1.8
2717-10NAVYNAVY×5Attack errDestiny McKenzie+1.3
2818-10NAVYNAVY×5KillEllen Gundlachset Isa Boyd+0.8
2918-11NAVYLAFAYEKillNoa Kamphuisset Mackenzie Calhoun+0.4
3018-12LAFAYELAFAYEAttack errEllen Gundlach+0.8
3119-12LAFAYENAVYServe errLafayette+0.9
3219-13NAVYLAFAYE×3Attack errCaroline Buffum+0.5
3319-14LAFAYELAFAYE×3Attack errGrace Burgoyne+1.1
3419-15LAFAYELAFAYE×3KillPaige Chmuraset Mackenzie Calhoun+1.7
3520-15LAFAYENAVYAttack errJustine Puig+1.8
3620-16NAVYLAFAYEKillPaige Chmuraset Mackenzie Calhoun+1.2
3721-16LAFAYENAVYKillPaige Buzzerioset Caroline Adams+1.8
3822-16NAVYNAVYBlockedAuma Mbeche-Odhiamboblk Farrah Eike, Siena Morgan+1.3
3922-17NAVYLAFAYEBlockedFarrah Eikeblk Justine Puig, Johanna Groger+0.5
4022-18LAFAYELAFAYEKillAuma Mbeche-Odhiamboset LK LaMonica+1.1
4123-18LAFAYENAVY×3KillFarrah Eikeset Caroline Adams+1.5
4224-18NAVYNAVY×3KillEllen Gundlachset Isa Boyd+0.8
4325-18NAVYNAVY×3KillFarrah Eikeset Isa Boyd+0.2
Set 4
10-1NAVYLAFAYE×3KillDestiny McKenzieset Mackenzie Calhoun+2.2
20-2LAFAYELAFAYE×3KillAuma Mbeche-Odhiamboset Mackenzie Calhoun+2.9
30-3LAFAYELAFAYE×3Attack errCaroline Buffum+2.9
41-3LAFAYENAVY×6KillCaroline Buffumset Isa Boyd+2.1
52-3NAVYNAVY×6KillEllen Gundlachset Isa Boyd+2.8
63-3NAVYNAVY×6Attack errJustine Puig+2.8
74-3NAVYNAVY×6KillBaylee Doolanset Isa Boyd+2.8
85-3NAVYNAVY×6KillCaroline Buffumset Isa Boyd+2.7
96-3NAVYNAVY×6KillCaroline Buffumset Isa Boyd+2.5
106-4NAVYLAFAYEKillJustine Puigset Alyssa Chu+1.9
117-4LAFAYENAVYKillEllen Gundlachset Isa Boyd+2.0
127-5NAVYLAFAYEKillJustine Puigset Mackenzie Calhoun+1.9
138-5LAFAYENAVYKillCaroline Buffumset Caroline Adams+2.0
148-6NAVYLAFAYEAttack errAvery Maddux+1.9
159-6LAFAYENAVYKillFarrah Eikeset Caroline Adams+2.1
1610-6NAVYNAVYAceAvery Madduxaced Alyssa Chu+2.4
1710-7NAVYLAFAYEKillNoa Kamphuisset LK LaMonica+1.7
1811-7LAFAYENAVYKillPaige Buzzerioset Caroline Adams+1.9
1911-8NAVYLAFAYEBlockedEllen Gundlachblk Johanna Groger, Destiny McKenzie+1.7
2011-9LAFAYELAFAYEKillAuma Mbeche-Odhiamboset Mackenzie Calhoun+2.6
2112-9LAFAYENAVYKillEllen Gundlachset Isa Boyd+2.3
2212-10NAVYLAFAYEServe errBaylee Doolan+2.1
2312-11LAFAYELAFAYEAttack errCaroline Buffum+3.2
2413-11LAFAYENAVY×3KillEllen Gundlachset Isa Boyd+2.6
2514-11NAVYNAVY×3KillCaroline Buffumset Isa Boyd+3.1
2615-11NAVYNAVY×3KillEllen Gundlachset Isa Boyd+2.6
2715-12NAVYLAFAYEKillJustine Puigset Mackenzie Calhoun+1.8
2815-13LAFAYELAFAYEAttack errEllen Gundlach+2.9
2916-13LAFAYENAVYServe errJohanna Groger+2.6
3017-13NAVYNAVYAttack errAuma Mbeche-Odhiambo+2.8
3117-14NAVYLAFAYE×3KillAuma Mbeche-Odhiamboset Mackenzie Calhoun+1.8
3217-15LAFAYELAFAYE×3Attack errFarrah Eike+3.0
3317-16LAFAYELAFAYE×3KillJustine Puigset LK LaMonica+3.8
3418-16LAFAYENAVYKillFarrah Eikeset Amara Chambers+3.4
3518-17NAVYLAFAYEKillJustine Puigset LK LaMonica+3.1
3618-18LAFAYELAFAYEAttack errPaige Buzzerio+4.9
3719-18LAFAYENAVYKillFarrah Eikeset Caroline Adams+4.0
3819-19NAVYLAFAYEKillNoa Kamphuisset LK LaMonica+4.1
3919-20LAFAYELAFAYEKillJada Aksuset LK LaMonica+6.0
4020-20LAFAYENAVYKillSiena Morganset Caroline Adams+4.5
4120-21NAVYLAFAYEKillDestiny McKenzieset LK LaMonica+5.3
4221-21LAFAYENAVYKillPaige Buzzerioset Isa Boyd+5.0
4322-21NAVYNAVYKillEllen Gundlachset Isa Boyd+7.2
4422-22NAVYLAFAYEServe errBaylee Doolan+5.6
4523-22LAFAYENAVY×3Attack errCaroline Buffum+6.6
4624-22NAVYNAVY×3Attack errJustine Puig+7.8
4725-22NAVYNAVY×3KillCaroline Buffumset Amara Chambers+4.3

Score shown after each rally, Navy first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).