FinalSat, Aug 29, 2026

AwayAMERICA-EAST

0:3

HomeMAC

Toledo def. Binghamton 3–0

(25-12, 25-22, 25-15)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
BINGHA	12	22	15	0
TOLEDO	25	25	25	3

RallyIQ model

Win probability

TOLEDO above 50 · BINGHA below

Biggest swing: 0.8% to Binghamton — set 2, BINGHA 15-12 TOLEDO. Kill by Francesca Pierdonati. TOLEDO win probability 97% → 96%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

BINGHA 3.3%96.7% TOLEDO

Binghamton wins

3-0

0.4%

3-1

0.9%

3-2

2.1%

Toledo wins

3-0

61.0%

3-1

27.8%

3-2

7.9%

BINGHA break %: 35.7% vs this opp
TOLEDO break %: 49.7% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Francesca PierdonatiKill+0.8%
Kill by Francesca Pierdonati
Set 2 · BINGHA 15-12 TOLEDO · BINGHA 3% → 4%
02
Caylee SharkeyKill+0.6%
Kill by Caylee Sharkey (set by Madelyn Bach)
Set 2 · BINGHA 15-14 TOLEDO · TOLEDO 96% → 97%
03
Kayla OzanichKill+0.6%
Kill by Kayla Ozanich (set by Madelyn Bach)
Set 2 · BINGHA 15-15 TOLEDO · TOLEDO 97% → 98%
04
Jessica CostlowKill+0.6%
Kill by Jessica Costlow (set by Madelyn Bach)
Set 2 · BINGHA 15-16 TOLEDO · TOLEDO 98% → 98%
05
Sophie CatalanoKill+0.5%
Kill by Sophie Catalano (set by Jessica Costlow)
Set 2 · BINGHA 12-11 TOLEDO · TOLEDO 97% → 97%
06
Viktoria DimitrovaKill+0.5%
Kill by Viktoria Dimitrova (set by Runa Redse-Arset)
Set 2 · BINGHA 14-12 TOLEDO · BINGHA 3% → 3%
07
BINGHA serverAce+0.5%
Binghamton ace on Team
Set 2 · BINGHA 7-4 TOLEDO · BINGHA 3% → 3%
08
Viktoria DimitrovaKill+0.5%
Kill by Viktoria Dimitrova (set by Magi Milicevic)
Set 2 · BINGHA 12-9 TOLEDO · BINGHA 3% → 4%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Binghamtonaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
24Magi MilicevicOH	3	7	2	29	.172	2	0	0	7	0	2	1	8
11Hannah OlmsteadMB	3	2	3	7	-.143	0	0	0	1	0	2	1	3
9Maia MarinS	3	1	0	3	.333	7	2	2	6	1	0	0	3
8Maya Coblentz-BrownOH	3	1	3	10	-.200	1	0	0	0	0	2	1	2
21Sophia ChristoffersOH	2	0	3	8	-.375	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
19Selestine Liu AsomuaOH	1	1	0	3	.333	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
12Viktoria DimitrovaOH	3	6	3	27	.111	0	0	0	4	1	2	1	7
22Briana BinagiOH	3	0	0	2	.000	0	0	0	8	0	0	0	0
2Celeste OcampoL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	3	0	0	13	2	0	0	0
23Francesca PierdonatiMB	2	1	0	4	.250	0	0	0	1	0	4	2	3
7Eleanor DorritieOH	2	1	1	10	.000	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	1
6Runa Redse-ArsetS	2	0	0	0	–	2	1	0	3	0	0	0	1
4Regan KadelS	1	0	0	0	–	2	0	0	1	0	0	0	0
Team totals		20	15	103	.049	17	3	2	46	7	12	6	49

Toledohome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
18Caylee SharkeyOH	3	11	1	19	.526	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	11
23Lilly MerkMB	3	7	0	12	.583	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	1.5	8.5
6Jessica CostlowOH	3	5	1	22	.182	1	2	0	9	0	0	1	0.5	7.5
14Ava SiefkeOH	3	6	5	17	.059	1	0	0	3	2	0	2	1	7
15Madelyn BachS	3	0	0	0	–	23	1	1	4	0	0	0	0	1
10Kayla OzanichMB	2	6	1	11	.455	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	6
16Sophie CatalanoOPP	3	10	3	21	.333	1	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	10
1Grace FreibergerL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	6	2	3	13	0	0	0	0	2
21Meg JarrettL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	1	0	2	10	0	0	0	0	0
11Brooke NaniseniOH	2	4	0	6	.667	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	4
3Janelle GreenS	2	1	1	2	.000	10	1	2	3	0	0	0	0	2
7Avery AdamskiL/DS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	0	0
9Audrey DyasMB	1	0	1	4	-.250	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	1	2
12Gabbi LeBlancS	1	0	0	0	–	5	0	2	5	0	0	0	0	0
24Lucy MonahanMB	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		50	13	114	.325	48	7	13	57	3	1	6	4	75

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 4 BINGHA · TOLEDO 6

Set 1

12-25

Longest run 2 BINGHATOLEDO 6

Set 2

22-25

Longest run 4 BINGHATOLEDO 6

Set 3

15-25

Longest run 3 BINGHATOLEDO 4

Bars above the line = Toledo leads, below = Binghamton leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Binghamton

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	50%7/14	38%3/8
2	58%7/12	13%1/8
3	46%6/13	30%3/10
4	60%6/10	25%2/8
5	38%6/16	25%2/8
6	44%4/9	25%2/8
All	49%36/74	26%13/50

Toledo

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	64%7/11	57%8/14
2	100%7/7	42%5/12
3	64%7/11	50%7/14
4	75%6/8	45%5/11
5	67%6/9	45%5/11
6	100%4/4	67%8/12
All	74%37/50	51%38/74

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

124 rallies

Rally log

#	BINGHA-TOLEDO	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	TOLEDO	BINGHA	Kill	Magi Milicevic	set Maia Marin	+0.4
2	1-1	BINGHA	TOLEDO	Kill	Ava Siefke	set Madelyn Bach	+0.3
3	1-2	TOLEDO	TOLEDO	Kill	Lilly Merk	set Madelyn Bach	+0.4
4	2-2	TOLEDO	BINGHA	Serve err	TOLEDO server		+0.3
5	2-3	BINGHA	TOLEDO×4	Kill	Ava Siefke	set Grace Freiberger	+0.3
6	2-4	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×4	Kill	Lilly Merk	set Sophie Catalano	+0.4
7	2-5	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×4	Attack err	Sophia Christoffers		+0.3
8	2-6	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×4	Ace	TOLEDO server	aced Maia Marin	+0.2
9	3-6	TOLEDO	BINGHA	Serve err	TOLEDO server		+0.2
10	3-7	BINGHA	TOLEDO	Attack err	Sophia Christoffers		+0.2
11	3-8	TOLEDO	TOLEDO	Attack err	Sophia Christoffers		+0.2
12	4-8	TOLEDO	BINGHA	Serve err	TOLEDO server		+0.1
13	5-8	BINGHA	BINGHA	Attack err	Janelle Green		+0.2
14	5-9	BINGHA	TOLEDO	Attack err	Viktoria Dimitrova	blk Jessica Costlow, Lilly Merk	+0.2
15	6-9	TOLEDO	BINGHA	Serve err	TOLEDO server		+0.2
16	6-10	BINGHA	TOLEDO	Kill	Jessica Costlow	set Grace Freiberger	+0.2
17	6-11	TOLEDO	TOLEDO	Kill	Kayla Ozanich	set Madelyn Bach	+0.2
18	7-11	TOLEDO	BINGHA	Kill	Magi Milicevic	set Madelyn Bach	+0.1
19	7-12	BINGHA	TOLEDO×6	Attack err	Hannah Olmstead		+0.2
20	7-13	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×6	Kill	Ava Siefke	set Madelyn Bach	+0.1
21	7-14	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×6	Kill	Kayla Ozanich	set Maia Marin	+0.1
22	7-15	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×6	Ace	TOLEDO server	aced Celeste Ocampo	+0.1
23	7-16	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×6	Attack err	Magi Milicevic		+0.0
24	7-17	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×6	Kill	Magi Milicevic	set Briana Binagi	+0.0
25	8-17	TOLEDO	BINGHA	Kill	Magi Milicevic	set Celeste Ocampo	+0.0
26	8-18	BINGHA	TOLEDO	Kill	Caylee Sharkey	set Madelyn Bach	+0.0
27	9-18	TOLEDO	BINGHA	Attack err	Ava Siefke	blk Maya Coblentz-Brown, Hannah Olmstead	+0.0
28	9-19	BINGHA	TOLEDO	Kill	Caylee Sharkey	set Madelyn Bach	+0.0
29	9-20	TOLEDO	TOLEDO	Kill	Sophie Catalano	set Grace Freiberger	+0.0
30	10-20	TOLEDO	BINGHA	Kill	Selestine Liu Asomua	set Maia Marin	+0.0
31	10-21	BINGHA	TOLEDO×3	Kill	Sophie Catalano	set Janelle Green	+0.0
32	10-22	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×3	Kill	Lilly Merk	set Janelle Green	+0.0
33	10-23	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×3	Kill	Janelle Green	set Celeste Ocampo	+0.0
34	11-23	TOLEDO	BINGHA	Serve err	TOLEDO server		+0.0
35	11-24	BINGHA	TOLEDO	Kill	Sophie Catalano	set Janelle Green	+0.0
36	12-24	TOLEDO	BINGHA	Kill	Magi Milicevic	set Maya Coblentz-Brown	+0.0
37	12-25	BINGHA	TOLEDO	Kill	Brooke Naniseni	set Grace Freiberger	+0.0
Set 2
1	1-0	BINGHA	BINGHA×3	Ace	BINGHA server	aced Ava Siefke	+0.3
2	2-0	BINGHA	BINGHA×3	Ace	BINGHA server	aced Ava Siefke	+0.4
3	3-0	BINGHA	BINGHA×3	Attack err	Ava Siefke		+0.4
4	3-1	BINGHA	TOLEDO	Serve err	BINGHA server		+0.3
5	4-1	TOLEDO	BINGHA	Kill	Viktoria Dimitrova	set Celeste Ocampo	+0.4
6	4-2	BINGHA	TOLEDO	Attack err	Maya Coblentz-Brown	blk Lilly Merk, Ava Siefke	+0.3
7	4-3	TOLEDO	TOLEDO	Kill	Ava Siefke	set Janelle Green	+0.4
8	5-3	TOLEDO	BINGHA	Kill	Hannah Olmstead	set Maia Marin	+0.3
9	5-4	BINGHA	TOLEDO	Kill	Sophie Catalano	set Janelle Green	+0.3
10	6-4	TOLEDO	BINGHA	Serve err	TOLEDO server		+0.4
11	7-4	BINGHA	BINGHA	Ace	BINGHA server	aced Team	+0.5
12	7-5	BINGHA	TOLEDO	Kill	Sophie Catalano	set Janelle Green	+0.3
13	8-5	TOLEDO	BINGHA	Serve err	TOLEDO server		+0.4
14	8-6	BINGHA	TOLEDO	Kill	Sophie Catalano	set Janelle Green	+0.3
15	9-6	TOLEDO	BINGHA	Attack err	Kayla Ozanich	blk Francesca Pierdonati, Magi Milicevic	+0.4
16	9-7	BINGHA	TOLEDO	Kill	Kayla Ozanich	set Madelyn Bach	+0.3
17	10-7	TOLEDO	BINGHA	Attack err	Caylee Sharkey		+0.5
18	10-8	BINGHA	TOLEDO	Kill	Ava Siefke	set Madelyn Bach	+0.4
19	11-8	TOLEDO	BINGHA	Kill	Maia Marin	set Magi Milicevic	+0.5
20	11-9	BINGHA	TOLEDO	Kill	Lilly Merk	set Madelyn Bach	+0.4
21	12-9	TOLEDO	BINGHA	Kill	Viktoria Dimitrova	set Magi Milicevic	+0.5
22	12-10	BINGHA	TOLEDO	Kill	Sophie Catalano	set Janelle Green	+0.4
23	12-11	TOLEDO	TOLEDO	Kill	Sophie Catalano	set Jessica Costlow	+0.5
24	13-11	TOLEDO	BINGHA	Kill	Magi Milicevic	set Maia Marin	+0.5
25	13-12	BINGHA	TOLEDO	Kill	Jessica Costlow	set Janelle Green	+0.4
26	14-12	TOLEDO	BINGHA	Kill	Viktoria Dimitrova	set Runa Redse-Arset	+0.5
27	15-12	BINGHA	BINGHA	Kill	Francesca Pierdonati		+0.8
28	15-13	BINGHA	TOLEDO×6	Kill	Kayla Ozanich	set Janelle Green	+0.5
29	15-14	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×6	Kill	Caylee Sharkey	set Madelyn Bach	+0.6
30	15-15	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×6	Kill	Kayla Ozanich	set Madelyn Bach	+0.6
31	15-16	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×6	Kill	Jessica Costlow	set Madelyn Bach	+0.6
32	15-17	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×6	Kill	Caylee Sharkey	set Madelyn Bach	+0.5
33	15-18	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×6	Kill	Jessica Costlow	set Meg Jarrett	+0.4
34	16-18	TOLEDO	BINGHA	Serve err	TOLEDO server		+0.2
35	16-19	BINGHA	TOLEDO×3	Kill	Jessica Costlow	set Madelyn Bach	+0.3
36	16-20	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×3	Kill	Caylee Sharkey	set Grace Freiberger	+0.3
37	16-21	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×3	Kill	Caylee Sharkey	set Madelyn Bach	+0.1
38	17-21	TOLEDO	BINGHA	Kill	Magi Milicevic	set Runa Redse-Arset	+0.1
39	17-22	BINGHA	TOLEDO	Kill	Kayla Ozanich	set Madelyn Bach	+0.1
40	17-23	TOLEDO	TOLEDO	Kill	Lilly Merk	set Madelyn Bach	+0.1
41	18-23	TOLEDO	BINGHA	Kill	Magi Milicevic	set Celeste Ocampo	+0.0
42	18-24	BINGHA	TOLEDO	Kill	Caylee Sharkey	set Ava Siefke	+0.0
43	19-24	TOLEDO	BINGHA×4	Serve err	TOLEDO server		+0.0
44	20-24	BINGHA	BINGHA×4	Attack err	Sophie Catalano	blk Viktoria Dimitrova, Francesca Pierdonati	+0.0
45	21-24	BINGHA	BINGHA×4	Attack err	Ava Siefke	blk Maya Coblentz-Brown, Francesca Pierdonati	+0.1
46	22-24	BINGHA	BINGHA×4	Attack err	Sophie Catalano	blk Viktoria Dimitrova, Francesca Pierdonati	+0.2
47	22-25	BINGHA	TOLEDO	Attack err	Viktoria Dimitrova		+0.3
Set 3
1	0-1	TOLEDO	TOLEDO	Ace	TOLEDO server	aced Viktoria Dimitrova	+0.1
2	1-1	TOLEDO	BINGHA	Kill	Viktoria Dimitrova	set Regan Kadel	+0.1
3	2-1	BINGHA	BINGHA	Attack err	Ava Siefke		+0.1
4	2-2	BINGHA	TOLEDO×3	Kill	Ava Siefke	set Madelyn Bach	+0.1
5	2-3	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×3	Attack err	Magi Milicevic		+0.1
6	2-4	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×3	Attack err	Maya Coblentz-Brown		+0.1
7	3-4	TOLEDO	BINGHA	Attack err	Ava Siefke		+0.1
8	3-5	BINGHA	TOLEDO×3	Attack err	Maya Coblentz-Brown	blk Ava Siefke, Lilly Merk	+0.1
9	3-6	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×3	Attack err	Viktoria Dimitrova		+0.1
10	3-7	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×3	Bad set	Regan Kadel		+0.1
11	4-7	TOLEDO	BINGHA	Serve err	TOLEDO server		+0.1
12	5-7	BINGHA	BINGHA	Attack err	Sophie Catalano	blk Magi Milicevic, Hannah Olmstead	+0.1
13	5-8	BINGHA	TOLEDO	Serve err	BINGHA server		+0.1
14	5-9	TOLEDO	TOLEDO	Attack err	Hannah Olmstead		+0.1
15	6-9	TOLEDO	BINGHA	Kill	Hannah Olmstead	set Maia Marin	+0.1
16	6-10	BINGHA	TOLEDO×4	Kill	Lilly Merk	set Gabbi LeBlanc	+0.1
17	6-11	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×4	Ace	TOLEDO server	aced Team	+0.1
18	6-12	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×4	Kill	Sophie Catalano	set Grace Freiberger	+0.0
19	6-13	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×4	Attack err	Hannah Olmstead	blk Audrey Dyas	+0.0
20	7-13	TOLEDO	BINGHA×3	Serve err	TOLEDO server		+0.0
21	8-13	BINGHA	BINGHA×3	Attack err	Audrey Dyas		+0.0
22	9-13	BINGHA	BINGHA×3	Kill	Viktoria Dimitrova	set Maia Marin	+0.1
23	9-14	BINGHA	TOLEDO	Kill	Sophie Catalano	set Gabbi LeBlanc	+0.0
24	10-14	TOLEDO	BINGHA	Attack err	Jessica Costlow		+0.0
25	10-15	BINGHA	TOLEDO	Kill	Caylee Sharkey	set Madelyn Bach	+0.0
26	11-15	TOLEDO	BINGHA	Kill	Maya Coblentz-Brown	set Regan Kadel	+0.0
27	11-16	BINGHA	TOLEDO	Kill	Caylee Sharkey	set Madelyn Bach	+0.0
28	11-17	TOLEDO	TOLEDO	Ace	TOLEDO server	aced Celeste Ocampo	+0.0
29	12-17	TOLEDO	BINGHA	Serve err	TOLEDO server		+0.0
30	12-18	BINGHA	TOLEDO	Kill	Caylee Sharkey	set Madelyn Bach	+0.0
31	13-18	TOLEDO	BINGHA	Serve err	TOLEDO server		+0.0
32	13-19	BINGHA	TOLEDO	Kill	Lilly Merk	set Gabbi LeBlanc	+0.0
33	14-19	TOLEDO	BINGHA	Kill	Eleanor Dorritie	set Maia Marin	+0.0
34	14-20	BINGHA	TOLEDO×3	Attack err	Eleanor Dorritie		+0.0
35	14-21	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×3	Ace	TOLEDO server	aced Team	+0.0
36	14-22	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×3	Kill	Brooke Naniseni	set Gabbi LeBlanc	+0.0
37	15-22	TOLEDO	BINGHA	Kill	Viktoria Dimitrova	set Maia Marin	+0.0
38	15-23	BINGHA	TOLEDO×3	Kill	Brooke Naniseni	set Gabbi LeBlanc	+0.0
39	15-24	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×3	Ace	TOLEDO server	aced Team	+0.0
40	15-25	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×3	Kill	Brooke Naniseni	set Madelyn Bach	+0.0

Score shown after each rally, Binghamton first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.