FinalFri, Sep 11, 2026

AwayMAC

3:0

HomeATLANTIC-10

Toledo def. VCU 3–0

(25-15, 25-21, 25-16)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
TOLEDO	25	25	25	3
VCU	15	21	16	0

RallyIQ model

Win probability

VCU above 50 · TOLEDO below

Biggest swing: 1.0% to VCU — set 2, TOLEDO 8-9 VCU. Kill by Molly McCall (set by Maddalena Fiolo). VCU win probability 5% → 6%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

TOLEDO 91.1%8.9% VCU

Toledo wins

3-0

46.3%

3-1

31.4%

3-2

13.3%

VCU wins

3-0

1.2%

3-1

2.7%

3-2

5.1%

TOLEDO break %: 48.4% vs this opp
VCU break %: 38.1% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Molly McCallKill+1.0%
Kill by Molly McCall (set by Maddalena Fiolo)
Set 2 · TOLEDO 8-9 VCU · VCU 5% → 6%
02
Jessica CostlowKill+0.9%
Kill by Jessica Costlow (set by Madelyn Bach)
Set 1 · TOLEDO 1-0 VCU · TOLEDO 91% → 92%
03
Kayla OzanichKill+0.8%
Kill by Kayla Ozanich (set by Madelyn Bach)
Set 2 · TOLEDO 10-9 VCU · TOLEDO 95% → 96%
04
Kayla OzanichKill+0.8%
Kill by Kayla Ozanich (set by Madelyn Bach)
Set 1 · TOLEDO 3-1 VCU · TOLEDO 92% → 93%
05
Olivia HeitkampAttack error+0.8%
Attack error by Olivia Heitkamp
Set 2 · TOLEDO 7-7 VCU · VCU 4% → 5%
06
Kayla OzanichKill+0.8%
Kill by Kayla Ozanich (set by Madelyn Bach)
Set 2 · TOLEDO 23-20 VCU · TOLEDO 97% → 98%
07
Molly McCallAttack error+0.7%
Attack error by Molly McCall
Set 2 · TOLEDO 11-9 VCU · TOLEDO 96% → 96%
08
TOLEDO serverService error+0.7%
Toledo service error
Set 1 · TOLEDO 1-1 VCU · VCU 8% → 9%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Toledoaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
6Jessica CostlowOH	3	14	3	34	.324	0	0	2	3	0	0	1	0.5	14.5
9Audrey DyasMB	3	10	1	15	.600	0	0	4	2	0	1	4	3	13
10Kayla OzanichMB	3	11	1	20	.500	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	1	12
16Sophie CatalanoOPP	3	4	2	18	.111	0	0	0	2	0	0	1	0.5	4.5
15Madelyn BachS	3	0	0	1	.000	25	2	1	7	0	0	0	0	2
7Avery AdamskiL/DS	3	1	0	1	1.000	1	0	1	7	0	0	0	0	1
4Olivia HeitkampOH	3	5	3	16	.125	0	0	0	2	0	0	1	0.5	5.5
14Ava SiefkeOH	3	4	2	14	.143	0	0	0	3	1	0	3	1.5	5.5
3Janelle GreenS	3	0	1	2	-.500	15	0	1	10	0	0	0	0	0
1Grace FreibergerL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	5	0	3	20	0	0	0	0	0
18Caylee SharkeyOH	1	1	1	5	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
21Meg JarrettL/DS	1	0	0	0	–	0	1	0	2	0	0	0	0	1
19Jadyn KennedyL/DS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		50	14	126	.286	46	3	13	59	1	1	12	7	75

VCUhome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
16Nina BoledovicovaMB	3	4	5	20	-.050	1	0	0	3	0	0	4	2	6
1Letizia GalliMB	3	3	2	17	.059	0	0	0	3	0	1	2	2	5
24Cansin SendirS	3	3	1	6	.333	11	0	1	8	0	0	0	0	3
4Lannah PriceOH	3	2	4	14	-.143	2	0	0	7	0	0	0	0	2
20Dunja MarticOH	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	0
7Sarah Dibbs-FrantzMB	2	3	1	9	.222	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	1	4
5Molly McCallOH	3	4	5	28	-.036	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	4
19Jordan BakshL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	1	1	1	9	0	0	0	0	1
10Kayla FoleyDS	3	0	0	0	–	2	0	1	14	1	0	0	0	0
9Julieta PortilloOH	2	2	0	10	.200	0	0	0	2	1	0	2	1	3
11Maddalena FioloS	2	0	0	0	–	3	0	0	2	0	0	1	0.5	0.5
2Gabby LaPataOH	1	3	0	11	.273	0	0	0	2	0	0	1	0.5	3.5
3Meghan TouheyL/DS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		24	18	115	.052	20	1	4	54	3	1	12	7	52

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 6 TOLEDO · VCU 4

Set 1

25-15

Longest run 5 TOLEDOVCU 3

Set 2

25-21

Longest run 6 TOLEDOVCU 3

Set 3

25-16

Longest run 5 TOLEDOVCU 4

Bars above the line = VCU leads, below = Toledo leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Toledo

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	78%7/9	57%8/14
2	78%7/9	56%9/16
3	64%7/11	36%4/11
4	75%6/8	40%4/10
5	56%5/9	64%9/14
6	57%4/7	56%5/9
All	68%36/53	53%39/74

VCU

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	64%7/11	38%3/8
2	44%7/16	30%3/10
3	60%6/10	13%1/8
4	55%6/11	33%3/9
5	42%5/12	40%4/10
6	29%4/14	38%3/8
All	47%35/74	32%17/53

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

127 rallies

Rally log

#	TOLEDO-VCU	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	TOLEDO	TOLEDO	Kill	Jessica Costlow	set Madelyn Bach	+0.9
2	1-1	TOLEDO	VCU	Serve err	TOLEDO server		+0.7
3	2-1	VCU	TOLEDO	Kill	Kayla Ozanich	set Madelyn Bach	+0.7
4	3-1	TOLEDO	TOLEDO	Kill	Kayla Ozanich	set Madelyn Bach	+0.8
5	3-2	TOLEDO	VCU	Kill	Cansin Sendir	set Cansin Sendir	+0.7
6	4-2	VCU	TOLEDO×3	Attack err	Lannah Price		+0.6
7	5-2	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×3	Kill	Ava Siefke		+0.7
8	6-2	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×3	Attack err	Lannah Price	blk Sophie Catalano, Audrey Dyas	+0.6
9	6-3	TOLEDO	VCU	Serve err	TOLEDO server		+0.5
10	7-3	VCU	TOLEDO	Kill	Audrey Dyas	set Madelyn Bach	+0.5
11	8-3	TOLEDO	TOLEDO	Kill	Olivia Heitkamp	set Janelle Green	+0.5
12	8-4	TOLEDO	VCU	Kill	Cansin Sendir	set Jordan Baksh	+0.4
13	9-4	VCU	TOLEDO×5	Attack err	Molly McCall	blk Ava Siefke, Audrey Dyas	+0.4
14	10-4	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×5	Kill	Olivia Heitkamp	set Grace Freiberger	+0.4
15	11-4	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×5	Attack err	Lannah Price		+0.3
16	12-4	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×5	Kill	Jessica Costlow	set Janelle Green	+0.2
17	13-4	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×5	Attack err	Sarah Dibbs-Frantz		+0.1
18	13-5	TOLEDO	VCU×3	Serve err	TOLEDO server		+0.1
19	13-6	VCU	VCU×3	Kill	Molly McCall	set Kayla Foley	+0.1
20	13-7	VCU	VCU×3	Kill	Lannah Price	set Cansin Sendir	+0.2
21	14-7	VCU	TOLEDO	Kill	Audrey Dyas	set Janelle Green	+0.2
22	14-8	TOLEDO	VCU	Serve err	TOLEDO server		+0.2
23	14-9	VCU	VCU	Attack err	Kayla Ozanich	blk Sarah Dibbs-Frantz, Nina Boledovicova	+0.3
24	15-9	VCU	TOLEDO	Kill	Jessica Costlow	set Grace Freiberger	+0.3
25	15-10	TOLEDO	VCU	Kill	Nina Boledovicova	set Cansin Sendir	+0.2
26	16-10	VCU	TOLEDO	Attack err	Nina Boledovicova		+0.3
27	17-10	TOLEDO	TOLEDO	Kill	Kayla Ozanich	set Madelyn Bach	+0.2
28	17-11	TOLEDO	VCU	Kill	Nina Boledovicova	set Cansin Sendir	+0.1
29	18-11	VCU	TOLEDO	Attack err	Cansin Sendir		+0.2
30	18-12	TOLEDO	VCU	Kill	Letizia Galli	set Cansin Sendir	+0.1
31	19-12	VCU	TOLEDO	Kill	Audrey Dyas	set Madelyn Bach	+0.2
32	19-13	TOLEDO	VCU	Attack err	Olivia Heitkamp		+0.1
33	19-14	VCU	VCU	Attack err	Olivia Heitkamp		+0.2
34	20-14	VCU	TOLEDO×4	Kill	Audrey Dyas	set Janelle Green	+0.3
35	21-14	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×4	Kill	Jessica Costlow	set Janelle Green	+0.2
36	22-14	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×4	Kill	Olivia Heitkamp	set Janelle Green	+0.1
37	23-14	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×4	Kill	Audrey Dyas	set Janelle Green	+0.0
38	23-15	TOLEDO	VCU	Kill	Sarah Dibbs-Frantz	set Cansin Sendir	+0.0
39	24-15	VCU	TOLEDO	Serve err	VCU server		+0.0
40	25-15	TOLEDO	TOLEDO	Attack err	Nina Boledovicova		+0.0
Set 2
1	0-1	VCU	VCU	Attack err	Jessica Costlow		+0.7
2	1-1	VCU	TOLEDO	Kill	Jessica Costlow	set Avery Adamski	+0.5
3	2-1	TOLEDO	TOLEDO	Kill	Kayla Ozanich		+0.6
4	2-2	TOLEDO	VCU	Serve err	TOLEDO server		+0.5
5	3-2	VCU	TOLEDO	Kill	Kayla Ozanich	set Madelyn Bach	+0.5
6	3-3	TOLEDO	VCU	Attack err	Sophie Catalano	blk Letizia Galli, Julieta Portillo	+0.5
7	4-3	VCU	TOLEDO	Serve err	VCU server		+0.5
8	5-3	TOLEDO	TOLEDO	Attack err	Letizia Galli	blk Ava Siefke, Audrey Dyas	+0.6
9	5-4	TOLEDO	VCU	Kill	Julieta Portillo	set Cansin Sendir	+0.5
10	6-4	VCU	TOLEDO	Attack err	Molly McCall		+0.5
11	7-4	TOLEDO	TOLEDO	Kill	Olivia Heitkamp	set Janelle Green	+0.5
12	7-5	TOLEDO	VCU×3	Kill	Molly McCall	set Maddalena Fiolo	+0.4
13	7-6	VCU	VCU×3	Attack err	Jessica Costlow		+0.7
14	7-7	VCU	VCU×3	Attack err	Olivia Heitkamp		+0.8
15	8-7	VCU	TOLEDO	Kill	Audrey Dyas	set Janelle Green	+0.6
16	8-8	TOLEDO	VCU	Serve err	TOLEDO server		+0.6
17	8-9	VCU	VCU	Kill	Molly McCall	set Maddalena Fiolo	+1.0
18	9-9	VCU	TOLEDO×6	Attack err	Molly McCall	blk Kayla Ozanich, Olivia Heitkamp	+0.7
19	10-9	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×6	Kill	Kayla Ozanich	set Madelyn Bach	+0.8
20	11-9	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×6	Attack err	Molly McCall		+0.7
21	12-9	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×6	Ace	TOLEDO server	aced Kayla Foley	+0.6
22	13-9	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×6	Kill	Kayla Ozanich	set Madelyn Bach	+0.5
23	14-9	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×6	Attack err	Nina Boledovicova	blk Kayla Ozanich, Jessica Costlow	+0.4
24	14-10	TOLEDO	VCU	Kill	Sarah Dibbs-Frantz	set Kayla Foley	+0.3
25	15-10	VCU	TOLEDO	Kill	Jessica Costlow	set Madelyn Bach	+0.3
26	15-11	TOLEDO	VCU	Serve err	TOLEDO server		+0.3
27	15-12	VCU	VCU	Kill	Letizia Galli	set Madelyn Bach	+0.5
28	16-12	VCU	TOLEDO	Serve err	VCU server		+0.4
29	16-13	TOLEDO	VCU	Serve err	TOLEDO server		+0.4
30	16-14	VCU	VCU	Attack err	Audrey Dyas	blk Letizia Galli	+0.7
31	17-14	VCU	TOLEDO	Kill	Sophie Catalano	set Madelyn Bach	+0.6
32	17-15	TOLEDO	VCU	Serve err	TOLEDO server		+0.5
33	18-15	VCU	TOLEDO	Kill	Audrey Dyas	set Janelle Green	+0.6
34	19-15	TOLEDO	TOLEDO	Kill	Jessica Costlow	set Grace Freiberger	+0.6
35	19-16	TOLEDO	VCU	Kill	Cansin Sendir		+0.4
36	20-16	VCU	TOLEDO	Serve err	VCU server		+0.5
37	20-17	TOLEDO	VCU	Serve err	TOLEDO server		+0.4
38	21-17	VCU	TOLEDO	Kill	Avery Adamski	set Janelle Green	+0.5
39	21-18	TOLEDO	VCU	Attack err	Sophie Catalano	blk Nina Boledovicova, Sarah Dibbs-Frantz	+0.3
40	22-18	VCU	TOLEDO	Kill	Jessica Costlow	set Madelyn Bach	+0.5
41	22-19	TOLEDO	VCU	Kill	Sarah Dibbs-Frantz	set Cansin Sendir	+0.3
42	22-20	VCU	VCU	Kill	Lannah Price	set Cansin Sendir	+0.7
43	23-20	VCU	TOLEDO	Kill	Kayla Ozanich	set Madelyn Bach	+0.8
44	24-20	TOLEDO	TOLEDO	Attack err	Lannah Price		+0.5
45	24-21	TOLEDO	VCU	Serve err	TOLEDO server		+0.1
46	25-21	VCU	TOLEDO	Kill	Sophie Catalano	set Madelyn Bach	+0.3
Set 3
1	1-0	TOLEDO	TOLEDO	Kill	Jessica Costlow	set Madelyn Bach	+0.3
2	2-0	TOLEDO	TOLEDO	Ace	TOLEDO server	aced Julieta Portillo	+0.2
3	2-1	TOLEDO	VCU	Kill	Letizia Galli	set Cansin Sendir	+0.2
4	3-1	VCU	TOLEDO×5	Kill	Jessica Costlow	set Madelyn Bach	+0.2
5	4-1	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×5	Kill	Ava Siefke	set Madelyn Bach	+0.2
6	5-1	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×5	Kill	Ava Siefke	set Madelyn Bach	+0.2
7	6-1	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×5	Kill	Sophie Catalano	set Madelyn Bach	+0.1
8	7-1	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×5	Kill	Kayla Ozanich	set Madelyn Bach	+0.1
9	7-2	TOLEDO	VCU	Kill	Gabby LaPata	set Cansin Sendir	+0.1
10	8-2	VCU	TOLEDO	Kill	Sophie Catalano	set Madelyn Bach	+0.1
11	8-3	TOLEDO	VCU	Kill	Nina Boledovicova	set Cansin Sendir	+0.1
12	9-3	VCU	TOLEDO×3	Kill	Audrey Dyas	set Madelyn Bach	+0.1
13	10-3	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×3	Attack err	Nina Boledovicova	blk Ava Siefke, Audrey Dyas	+0.1
14	11-3	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×3	Attack err	Nina Boledovicova	blk Audrey Dyas	+0.1
15	11-4	TOLEDO	VCU	Kill	Nina Boledovicova	set Cansin Sendir	+0.0
16	12-4	VCU	TOLEDO	Kill	Audrey Dyas	set Jordan Baksh	+0.0
17	12-5	TOLEDO	VCU	Kill	Molly McCall	set Lannah Price	+0.0
18	13-5	VCU	TOLEDO×5	Attack err	Molly McCall		+0.0
19	14-5	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×5	Kill	Jessica Costlow	set Janelle Green	+0.0
20	15-5	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×5	Kill	Jessica Costlow	set Janelle Green	+0.0
21	16-5	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×5	Attack err	Letizia Galli		+0.0
22	17-5	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×5	Kill	Olivia Heitkamp	set Janelle Green	+0.0
23	17-6	TOLEDO	VCU	Serve err	TOLEDO server		+0.0
24	17-7	VCU	VCU	Serve err	VCU server		+0.0
25	18-7	VCU	TOLEDO	Kill	Jessica Costlow	set Janelle Green	+0.0
26	18-8	TOLEDO	VCU	Kill	Gabby LaPata	set Maddalena Fiolo	+0.0
27	18-9	VCU	VCU	Attack err	Jessica Costlow	blk Gabby LaPata, Letizia Galli	+0.0
28	19-9	VCU	TOLEDO×3	Kill	Jessica Costlow	set Grace Freiberger	+0.0
29	20-9	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×3	Kill	Kayla Ozanich	set Madelyn Bach	+0.0
30	21-9	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×3	Ace	TOLEDO server	aced Team	+0.0
31	21-10	TOLEDO	VCU	Kill	Gabby LaPata	set Gabby LaPata	+0.0
32	22-10	VCU	TOLEDO	Kill	Kayla Ozanich	set Madelyn Bach	+0.0
33	23-10	TOLEDO	TOLEDO	Kill	Caylee Sharkey	set Madelyn Bach	+0.0
34	23-11	TOLEDO	VCU×4	Kill	Julieta Portillo	set Nina Boledovicova	+0.0
35	23-12	VCU	VCU×4	Attack err	Caylee Sharkey	blk Nina Boledovicova, Julieta Portillo	+0.0
36	23-13	VCU	VCU×4	Attack err	Ava Siefke	blk Nina Boledovicova, Maddalena Fiolo	+0.0
37	23-14	VCU	VCU×4	Ace	VCU server	aced Ava Siefke	+0.0
38	24-14	VCU	TOLEDO	Kill	Audrey Dyas	set Madelyn Bach	+0.0
39	24-15	TOLEDO	VCU	Serve err	TOLEDO server		+0.0
40	24-16	VCU	VCU	Attack err	Ava Siefke		+0.0
41	25-16	VCU	TOLEDO	Kill	Ava Siefke	set Grace Freiberger	+0.0

Score shown after each rally, Toledo first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.