FinalFri, Aug 28, 2026

AwayPATRIOT

0:3

HomeMAC

Ohio def. Bucknell 3–0

(25-16, 25-21, 25-19)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
BUCKNL	16	21	19	0
OHIO	25	25	25	3

RallyIQ model

Win probability

OHIO above 50 · BUCKNL below

Biggest swing: 1.5% to Bucknell — set 2, BUCKNL 21-20 OHIO. Bucknell ace on Emily Waddell. OHIO win probability 97% → 95%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

BUCKNL 4.8%95.2% OHIO

Bucknell wins

3-0

0.5%

3-1

1.3%

3-2

2.9%

Ohio wins

3-0

56.0%

3-1

29.5%

3-2

9.7%

BUCKNL break %: 35.7% vs this opp
OHIO break %: 48.4% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
BUCKNL serverAce+1.5%
Bucknell ace on Emily Waddell
Set 2 · BUCKNL 21-20 OHIO · BUCKNL 3% → 5%
02
Sarah HilliardAttack error+1.4%
Sarah Hilliard stuffed by Emily Waddell & Rose Mahin
Set 2 · BUCKNL 21-22 OHIO · OHIO 96% → 97%
03
Torre KildowAttack error+1.2%
Attack error by Torre Kildow
Set 2 · BUCKNL 19-18 OHIO · BUCKNL 3% → 4%
04
Rose MahinKill+1.1%
Kill by Rose Mahin (set by Rowan Kelly)
Set 2 · BUCKNL 21-23 OHIO · OHIO 97% → 98%
05
Rowan KellyKill+1.0%
Kill by Rowan Kelly (set by Lacy Marx)
Set 2 · BUCKNL 19-20 OHIO · OHIO 96% → 97%
06
Torre KildowKill+1.0%
Kill by Torre Kildow (set by Rose Mahin)
Set 2 · BUCKNL 21-21 OHIO · OHIO 95% → 96%
07
Bailey BlairAttack error+0.9%
Attack error by Bailey Blair
Set 2 · BUCKNL 18-18 OHIO · BUCKNL 2% → 3%
08
Kaitlyn TaylorKill+0.8%
Kill by Kaitlyn Taylor (set by Emerson Boyd)
Set 2 · BUCKNL 20-20 OHIO · BUCKNL 3% → 3%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Bucknellaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
2Kaitlyn TaylorOH	3	10	2	24	.333	0	0	4	4	0	0	0	0	10
22Cameron LloydOH	3	8	4	25	.160	1	0	1	6	0	0	0	0	8
1Sidney ShafferMB	3	5	0	12	.417	0	0	0	0	0	2	2	3	8
15Marion HaskellOPP	3	5	4	14	.071	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	1	6
4Peyton McGeeS	3	0	2	5	-.400	18	0	0	5	0	0	1	0.5	0.5
17Stephanie ErohMB	2	1	0	7	.143	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.5	1.5
8Emily KearneyDS	3	0	0	0	–	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
5Isabella CharltonL/DS	3	0	1	1	-1.000	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	0	0
33Katie O'SullivanL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	4	0	1	13	3	0	0	0	0
11Emerson BoydOPP	2	0	0	0	–	4	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
9Sarah HilliardOH	1	0	2	3	-.667	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
23Klea TarjaOH	1	0	0	1	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6Sarah WilliamsOH	1	0	0	1	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		29	15	93	.151	27	1	6	35	3	2	6	5	56

Ohiohome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
17Bailey BlairOPP	3	15	3	23	.522	1	0	3	6	0	2	1	16
7Rose MahinOH	3	9	5	25	.160	2	0	2	10	0	1	0.5	9.5
4Torre KildowOH	3	8	4	20	.200	3	0	1	5	0	1	0.5	8.5
11Emily WaddellMB	3	7	2	18	.278	0	0	1	2	1	2	1	8
23Olivia GardnerMB	3	7	1	13	.462	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	8
10Rowan KellyS	3	3	0	5	.600	38	2	2	12	0	2	1	6
22Lacy MarxL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	1	1	0	9	0	0	0	1
16Darbi RickettsL/DS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		49	15	104	.327	45	3	9	44	1	10	5	75

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 6 BUCKNL · OHIO 5

Set 1

16-25

Longest run 2 BUCKNLOHIO 3

Set 2

21-25

Longest run 6 BUCKNLOHIO 5

Set 3

19-25

Longest run 3 BUCKNLOHIO 4

Bars above the line = Ohio leads, below = Bucknell leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Bucknell

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	42%8/19	40%4/10
2	54%7/13	43%6/14
3	55%6/11	13%1/8
4	75%6/8	45%5/11
5	33%5/15	25%2/8
6	63%5/8	17%1/6
All	50%37/74	33%19/57

Ohio

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	62%8/13	42%5/12
2	64%7/11	61%11/18
3	100%6/6	40%4/10
4	50%6/12	33%3/9
5	75%6/8	54%7/13
6	71%5/7	58%7/12
All	67%38/57	50%37/74

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

131 rallies

Rally log

#	BUCKNL-OHIO	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	0-1	OHIO	OHIO	Kill	Bailey Blair	set Rowan Kelly	+0.5
2	1-1	OHIO	BUCKNL	Serve err	OHIO server		+0.4
3	2-1	BUCKNL	BUCKNL	Attack err	Rose Mahin		+0.7
4	2-2	BUCKNL	OHIO×3	Kill	Bailey Blair	set Rowan Kelly	+0.5
5	2-3	OHIO	OHIO×3	Kill	Torre Kildow	set Rose Mahin	+0.6
6	2-4	OHIO	OHIO×3	Attack err	Marion Haskell	blk Torre Kildow, Olivia Gardner	+0.5
7	3-4	OHIO	BUCKNL	Serve err	OHIO server		+0.4
8	3-5	BUCKNL	OHIO	Kill	Bailey Blair	set Rowan Kelly	+0.4
9	4-5	OHIO	BUCKNL	Attack err	Torre Kildow	blk Peyton McGee, Sidney Shaffer	+0.4
10	4-6	BUCKNL	OHIO	Serve err	BUCKNL server		+0.4
11	5-6	OHIO	BUCKNL	Attack err	Emily Waddell		+0.4
12	5-7	BUCKNL	OHIO	Attack err	Kaitlyn Taylor		+0.4
13	5-8	OHIO	OHIO	Kill	Emily Waddell		+0.5
14	6-8	OHIO	BUCKNL	Kill	Kaitlyn Taylor	set Peyton McGee	+0.4
15	6-9	BUCKNL	OHIO×3	Kill	Emily Waddell	set Rowan Kelly	+0.3
16	6-10	OHIO	OHIO×3	Attack err	Marion Haskell		+0.4
17	6-11	OHIO	OHIO×3	Attack err	Peyton McGee		+0.3
18	7-11	OHIO	BUCKNL	Serve err	OHIO server		+0.2
19	7-12	BUCKNL	OHIO×3	Kill	Rose Mahin	set Rowan Kelly	+0.2
20	7-13	OHIO	OHIO×3	Kill	Rose Mahin	set Rowan Kelly	+0.2
21	7-14	OHIO	OHIO×3	Ace	OHIO server	aced Katie O'Sullivan	+0.1
22	8-14	OHIO	BUCKNL	Kill	Cameron Lloyd	set Katie O'Sullivan	+0.1
23	8-15	BUCKNL	OHIO	Kill	Olivia Gardner	set Rowan Kelly	+0.1
24	9-15	OHIO	BUCKNL	Serve err	OHIO server		+0.1
25	9-16	BUCKNL	OHIO	Kill	Bailey Blair	set Rowan Kelly	+0.1
26	10-16	OHIO	BUCKNL	Attack err	Torre Kildow		+0.1
27	10-17	BUCKNL	OHIO	Kill	Torre Kildow	set Rowan Kelly	+0.1
28	11-17	OHIO	BUCKNL	Serve err	OHIO server		+0.1
29	11-18	BUCKNL	OHIO	Kill	Torre Kildow	set Rowan Kelly	+0.1
30	11-19	OHIO	OHIO	Kill	Emily Waddell	set Rowan Kelly	+0.1
31	12-19	OHIO	BUCKNL	Kill	Kaitlyn Taylor	set Katie O'Sullivan	+0.0
32	13-19	BUCKNL	BUCKNL	Attack err	Rose Mahin	blk Marion Haskell, Stephanie Eroh	+0.1
33	13-20	BUCKNL	OHIO	Kill	Emily Waddell	set Rowan Kelly	+0.1
34	14-20	OHIO	BUCKNL	Kill	Kaitlyn Taylor	set Peyton McGee	+0.0
35	14-21	BUCKNL	OHIO	Serve err	BUCKNL server		+0.1
36	14-22	OHIO	OHIO	Ace	OHIO server	aced Katie O'Sullivan	+0.0
37	15-22	OHIO	BUCKNL	Kill	Cameron Lloyd	set Peyton McGee	+0.0
38	15-23	BUCKNL	OHIO	Kill	Rose Mahin	set Rowan Kelly	+0.0
39	15-24	OHIO	OHIO	Kill	Olivia Gardner	set Rowan Kelly	+0.0
40	16-24	OHIO	BUCKNL	Kill	Cameron Lloyd	set Peyton McGee	+0.0
41	16-25	BUCKNL	OHIO	Kill	Bailey Blair	set Rowan Kelly	+0.0
Set 2
1	1-0	BUCKNL	BUCKNL	Kill	Marion Haskell	set Cameron Lloyd	+0.4
2	2-0	BUCKNL	BUCKNL	Bad set	Rowan Kelly		+0.5
3	2-1	BUCKNL	OHIO×5	Serve err	BUCKNL server		+0.3
4	2-2	OHIO	OHIO×5	Kill	Rose Mahin	set Rowan Kelly	+0.4
5	2-3	OHIO	OHIO×5	Attack err	Cameron Lloyd		+0.4
6	2-4	OHIO	OHIO×5	Kill	Bailey Blair	set Torre Kildow	+0.3
7	2-5	OHIO	OHIO×5	Kill	Olivia Gardner	set Rowan Kelly	+0.3
8	3-5	OHIO	BUCKNL	Kill	Cameron Lloyd	set Peyton McGee	+0.2
9	4-5	BUCKNL	BUCKNL	Attack err	Rose Mahin		+0.4
10	4-6	BUCKNL	OHIO	Kill	Rose Mahin	set Rowan Kelly	+0.2
11	4-7	OHIO	OHIO	Bad set	Peyton McGee		+0.3
12	5-7	OHIO	BUCKNL	Kill	Sidney Shaffer	set Peyton McGee	+0.2
13	5-8	BUCKNL	OHIO	Kill	Olivia Gardner	set Rowan Kelly	+0.2
14	5-9	OHIO	OHIO	Attack err	Cameron Lloyd		+0.2
15	6-9	OHIO	BUCKNL	Attack err	Bailey Blair		+0.2
16	6-10	BUCKNL	OHIO	Kill	Emily Waddell	set Rowan Kelly	+0.2
17	7-10	OHIO	BUCKNL	Serve err	OHIO server		+0.2
18	7-11	BUCKNL	OHIO	Kill	Bailey Blair	set Rowan Kelly	+0.2
19	8-11	OHIO	BUCKNL	Kill	Kaitlyn Taylor	set Peyton McGee	+0.2
20	8-12	BUCKNL	OHIO	Kill	Rose Mahin	set Rowan Kelly	+0.2
21	9-12	OHIO	BUCKNL	Kill	Stephanie Eroh	set Peyton McGee	+0.2
22	9-13	BUCKNL	OHIO×3	Attack err	Cameron Lloyd		+0.2
23	9-14	OHIO	OHIO×3	Kill	Bailey Blair	set Rowan Kelly	+0.2
24	9-15	OHIO	OHIO×3	Attack err	Cameron Lloyd	blk Bailey Blair, Olivia Gardner	+0.1
25	10-15	OHIO	BUCKNL×3	Kill	Marion Haskell	set Peyton McGee	+0.1
26	11-15	BUCKNL	BUCKNL×3	Attack err	Rose Mahin	blk Marion Haskell, Sidney Shaffer	+0.2
27	12-15	BUCKNL	BUCKNL×3	Kill	Sidney Shaffer	set Peyton McGee	+0.3
28	12-16	BUCKNL	OHIO	Kill	Torre Kildow	set Rowan Kelly	+0.2
29	13-16	OHIO	BUCKNL	Kill	Marion Haskell	set Peyton McGee	+0.2
30	13-17	BUCKNL	OHIO	Bad set	Emerson Boyd		+0.2
31	13-18	OHIO	OHIO	Kill	Torre Kildow	set Rowan Kelly	+0.2
32	14-18	OHIO	BUCKNL×6	Kill	Sidney Shaffer	set Emerson Boyd	+0.1
33	15-18	BUCKNL	BUCKNL×6	Kill	Kaitlyn Taylor	set Emerson Boyd	+0.3
34	16-18	BUCKNL	BUCKNL×6	Attack err	Emily Waddell		+0.4
35	17-18	BUCKNL	BUCKNL×6	Bad set	Rowan Kelly		+0.6
36	18-18	BUCKNL	BUCKNL×6	Attack err	Bailey Blair		+0.9
37	19-18	BUCKNL	BUCKNL×6	Attack err	Torre Kildow		+1.2
38	19-19	BUCKNL	OHIO	Kill	Torre Kildow	set Rowan Kelly	+0.8
39	19-20	OHIO	OHIO	Kill	Rowan Kelly	set Lacy Marx	+1.0
40	20-20	OHIO	BUCKNL	Kill	Kaitlyn Taylor	set Emerson Boyd	+0.8
41	21-20	BUCKNL	BUCKNL	Ace	BUCKNL server	aced Emily Waddell	+1.5
42	21-21	BUCKNL	OHIO×5	Kill	Torre Kildow	set Rose Mahin	+1.0
43	21-22	OHIO	OHIO×5	Attack err	Sarah Hilliard	blk Emily Waddell, Rose Mahin	+1.4
44	21-23	OHIO	OHIO×5	Kill	Rose Mahin	set Rowan Kelly	+1.1
45	21-24	OHIO	OHIO×5	Kill	Emily Waddell	set Rowan Kelly	+0.6
46	21-25	OHIO	OHIO×5	Attack err	Sarah Hilliard		+0.2
Set 3
1	1-0	OHIO	BUCKNL	Kill	Cameron Lloyd	set Katie O'Sullivan	+0.1
2	1-1	BUCKNL	OHIO	Serve err	BUCKNL server		+0.1
3	2-1	OHIO	BUCKNL	Kill	Cameron Lloyd	set Peyton McGee	+0.1
4	3-1	BUCKNL	BUCKNL	Kill	Sidney Shaffer		+0.2
5	3-2	BUCKNL	OHIO	Kill	Olivia Gardner	set Rowan Kelly	+0.1
6	4-2	OHIO	BUCKNL	Kill	Cameron Lloyd	set Peyton McGee	+0.2
7	4-3	BUCKNL	OHIO	Kill	Bailey Blair	set Rowan Kelly	+0.2
8	4-4	OHIO	OHIO	Attack err	Kaitlyn Taylor	blk Rowan Kelly, Emily Waddell	+0.2
9	5-4	OHIO	BUCKNL	Attack err	Rose Mahin	blk Sidney Shaffer	+0.2
10	6-4	BUCKNL	BUCKNL	Kill	Kaitlyn Taylor	set Peyton McGee	+0.3
11	6-5	BUCKNL	OHIO×3	Kill	Torre Kildow	set Rowan Kelly	+0.2
12	6-6	OHIO	OHIO×3	Kill	Rowan Kelly	set Bailey Blair	+0.2
13	6-7	OHIO	OHIO×3	Attack err	Peyton McGee		+0.2
14	7-7	OHIO	BUCKNL	Kill	Kaitlyn Taylor	set Katie O'Sullivan	+0.2
15	7-8	BUCKNL	OHIO	Kill	Rose Mahin	set Rowan Kelly	+0.1
16	7-9	OHIO	OHIO	Kill	Rowan Kelly	set Torre Kildow	+0.2
17	8-9	OHIO	BUCKNL×3	Kill	Kaitlyn Taylor	set Peyton McGee	+0.1
18	9-9	BUCKNL	BUCKNL×3	Kill	Cameron Lloyd	set Peyton McGee	+0.2
19	10-9	BUCKNL	BUCKNL×3	Attack err	Bailey Blair		+0.3
20	10-10	BUCKNL	OHIO	Serve err	BUCKNL server		+0.2
21	11-10	OHIO	BUCKNL	Kill	Marion Haskell	set Peyton McGee	+0.2
22	12-10	BUCKNL	BUCKNL	Attack err	Olivia Gardner	blk Sidney Shaffer	+0.3
23	12-11	BUCKNL	OHIO×3	Kill	Rose Mahin	set Rowan Kelly	+0.2
24	12-12	OHIO	OHIO×3	Kill	Olivia Gardner	set Rowan Kelly	+0.3
25	12-13	OHIO	OHIO×3	Attack err	Marion Haskell		+0.3
26	13-13	OHIO	BUCKNL	Attack err	Torre Kildow		+0.2
27	13-14	BUCKNL	OHIO×4	Kill	Bailey Blair	set Rowan Kelly	+0.2
28	13-15	OHIO	OHIO×4	Kill	Bailey Blair	set Torre Kildow	+0.2
29	13-16	OHIO	OHIO×4	Ace	OHIO server	aced Katie O'Sullivan	+0.2
30	13-17	OHIO	OHIO×4	Kill	Bailey Blair	set Rowan Kelly	+0.1
31	14-17	OHIO	BUCKNL	Kill	Sidney Shaffer	set Emerson Boyd	+0.1
32	14-18	BUCKNL	OHIO	Kill	Emily Waddell	set Rowan Kelly	+0.1
33	15-18	OHIO	BUCKNL	Serve err	OHIO server		+0.1
34	15-19	BUCKNL	OHIO×3	Kill	Bailey Blair	set Rowan Kelly	+0.1
35	15-20	OHIO	OHIO×3	Kill	Bailey Blair	set Rowan Kelly	+0.1
36	15-21	OHIO	OHIO×3	Attack err	Isabella Charlton	blk Rowan Kelly, Bailey Blair	+0.0
37	16-21	OHIO	BUCKNL	Serve err	OHIO server		+0.0
38	16-22	BUCKNL	OHIO	Kill	Bailey Blair	set Rowan Kelly	+0.0
39	17-22	OHIO	BUCKNL	Kill	Kaitlyn Taylor	set Peyton McGee	+0.0
40	17-23	BUCKNL	OHIO	Serve err	BUCKNL server		+0.0
41	17-24	OHIO	OHIO	Attack err	Marion Haskell		+0.0
42	18-24	OHIO	BUCKNL	Serve err	OHIO server		+0.0
43	19-24	BUCKNL	BUCKNL	Kill	Marion Haskell	set Rowan Kelly	+0.0
44	19-25	BUCKNL	OHIO	Kill	Olivia Gardner	set Rowan Kelly	+0.0

Score shown after each rally, Bucknell first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.