Toledo vs Bowling Green Volleyball: Toledo Wins 3-2 (Nov 3)

Final · 5 setsTue, Nov 3, 2026ESPN+

3:2

RallyIQ pre-match: Toledo 51.9% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Nov 3, 4:55 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Toledo won at Bowling Green 3-2 (21-25, 23-25, 25-22, 25-23, 15-8) on Tue, Nov 3, 2026. Kayla Ozanich led Toledo with 13 kills; Bowling Green's Anastasija Bozic had a match-high 18.

Data through Nov 4, 2:50 PM CT · final Nov 3

Set	1	2	3	4	5	Sets
TOLEDO	21	23	25	25	15	3
BGSU	25	25	22	23	8	2

Match story · written from the play-by-play

From 0–2 and 8%: Toledo came all the way back.

The match turned 3 times; each line shows Toledo's RallyIQ win probability at the start and end of the stretch. Toledo went in as RallyIQ's 52% pick.

Turning point 1: Set 1 · Toledo 21–20 Bowling Green
Down 20–21, Bowling Green scored 5 straight to lead 25–21. The match swung to Bowling Green.
Toledo 56% → 32%
Turning point 2: Set 3 · Toledo 5–8 Bowling Green
Toledo's low point. Toledo then won 20 of the next 34 rallies and the set 25–22.
Toledo 8% → 25%
Turning point 3: Set 4 · Toledo 22–22 Bowling Green
Toledo closed it, 3 of the final 4 rallies, to take the set 25–23 and level the match at 2–2.
Toledo 27% → 50%

Bowling Green above 50Toledo belowMax swing 10.4%

ToledoBowling Green

Sideout %: Toledo 57.3·Bowling Green 54.1
Break %: Toledo 45.9·Bowling Green 42.7
Hitting: Toledo .129·Bowling Green .126
Longest run: Toledo 6·Bowling Green 5

Lilly Merk
5 of her kills came in the stretches above. 11 K, .259, 12 points.

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Bowling Green above 50 · Toledo below

Biggest swing: 10.4% to Bowling Green — set 2, TOLEDO 23-25 BGSU. Kill by Anastasija Bozic (set by Amanda Otten). BGSU win probability 76% → 87%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

TOLEDO 53.4%46.6% BGSU

Toledo wins

3-0

14.0%

3-1

20.2%

3-2

19.3%

Bowling Green wins

3-0

11.1%

3-1

17.3%

3-2

18.1%

TOLEDO break %: 42.1% vs this opp
BGSU break %: 41.5% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

01
Anastasija BozicKill+10.4%
Kill by Anastasija Bozic (set by Amanda Otten)
Set 2 · TOLEDO 23-25 BGSU · BGSU 76% → 87%
02
Karli MolnauAttack error+10.3%
Attack error by Karli Molnau
Set 4 · TOLEDO 24-22 BGSU · TOLEDO 35% → 45%
03
Avery HobsonAttack error+9.0%
Attack error by Avery Hobson
Set 5 · TOLEDO 6-3 BGSU · TOLEDO 69% → 78%
04
Cecily Waynar&Karli MolnauBlock+8.9%
Jessica Costlow stuffed by Cecily Waynar & Karli Molnau
Set 4 · TOLEDO 22-22 BGSU · BGSU 64% → 73%
05
Kayla Ozanich&Sierra PertzbornBlock+8.8%
Anastasija Bozic stuffed by Kayla Ozanich & Sierra Pertzborn
Set 5 · TOLEDO 1-0 BGSU · TOLEDO 50% → 58%
06
Amanda OttenBad set+8.7%
Bad set by Amanda Otten
Set 5 · TOLEDO 2-0 BGSU · TOLEDO 58% → 67%
07
Sierra PertzbornKill+8.3%
Kill by Sierra Pertzborn (set by Madelyn Bach)
Set 4 · TOLEDO 25-23 BGSU · TOLEDO 41% → 50%
08
Kayla OzanichKill+7.9%
Kill by Kayla Ozanich (set by Madelyn Bach)
Set 5 · TOLEDO 10-6 BGSU · TOLEDO 82% → 90%

Box score

Official NCAA box

Toledoaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
10Kayla OzanichMB	5	13	2	33	.333	0	0	0	4	0	1	9	5.5	18.5
6Jessica CostlowOH	5	9	4	38	.132	2	2	1	18	2	1	1	1.5	12.5
23Lilly MerkMB	5	11	4	27	.259	1	0	2	6	0	0	2	1	12
14Ava SiefkeOH	5	9	5	34	.118	1	0	0	5	1	0	2	1	10
22Sierra PertzbornMB	5	6	5	23	.043	0	0	0	6	0	1	4	3	9
15Madelyn BachS	5	2	0	3	.667	23	0	1	11	0	0	0	0	2
1Grace FreibergerL/DS	5	0	0	4	.000	3	2	1	24	1	0	0	0	2
7Avery AdamskiL/DS	5	0	0	3	.000	2	1	0	17	1	0	0	0	1
3Janelle GreenS	5	0	0	4	.000	18	0	1	13	0	0	0	0	0
4Olivia HeitkampOH	4	3	6	19	-.158	0	0	0	1	0	1	4	3	6
16Sophie CatalanoOPP	1	0	2	6	-.333	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
12Gabbi LeBlancS	1	0	0	0	–	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
2Mariah GainesOH	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		53	28	194	.129	52	5	6	106	6	4	22	15	109

Bowling Greenhome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
23Anastasija BozicOH	5	18	9	57	.158	2	0	0	13	0	0	2	1	19
12Karli MolnauOH	5	16	7	35	.257	0	0	0	4	0	0	4	2	18
9Avery HobsonOH	5	14	12	72	.028	0	1	1	16	3	0	3	1.5	16.5
18Helen WilfordMB	5	6	2	21	.190	0	0	0	1	0	2	6	5	11
6Cecily WaynarOPP	5	3	2	11	.091	0	1	2	2	0	2	4	4	8
11Amanda OttenS	5	4	2	17	.118	49	3	2	13	0	0	1	0.5	7.5
3Avery AndersDS	5	0	0	0	–	3	1	3	19	0	0	0	0	1
1Sydnie HernandezDS	5	0	0	2	.000	3	0	4	32	2	0	0	0	0
17Katherine EignerDS	5	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		61	34	215	.126	57	6	13	100	5	4	20	14	103

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Toledo vs Bowling Green

Season series · Toledo leads 1-0

Tue, Nov 3, 2026Toledo at Bowling Green · Toledo won 3-2This match
Sat, Nov 14, 2026Bowling Green at ToledoPreview →

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 6 TOLEDO · BGSU 5

Set 1

21-25

Longest run 6 TOLEDOBGSU 5

Set 2

23-25

Longest run 4 TOLEDOBGSU 3

Set 3

25-22

Longest run 6 TOLEDOBGSU 5

Set 4

25-23

Longest run 4 TOLEDOBGSU 4

Set 5

15-8

Longest run 3 TOLEDOBGSU 2

Bars above the line = Bowling Green leads, below = Toledo leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Toledo

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	48%12/25	39%7/18
2	79%11/14	58%15/26
3	56%9/16	33%5/15
4	56%9/16	31%4/13
5	56%9/16	59%13/22
6	56%9/16	40%6/15
All	57%59/103	46%50/109

Bowling Green

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	48%12/25	50%9/18
2	58%11/19	43%9/21
3	63%10/16	39%7/18
4	50%9/18	44%7/16
5	53%9/17	10%1/10
6	57%8/14	55%11/20
All	54%59/109	43%44/103

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (5 of 5 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

212 rallies

#	TOLEDO-BGSU	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	BGSU	TOLEDO	Kill	Ava Siefke	set Madelyn Bach	+1.8
2	2-0	TOLEDO	TOLEDO	Attack err	Karli Molnau		+2.5
3	2-1	TOLEDO	BGSU	Kill	Avery Hobson	set Amanda Otten	+1.7
4	2-2	BGSU	BGSU	Ace	Avery Hobson	aced Ava Siefke	+2.6
5	3-2	BGSU	TOLEDO	Bad set	Sydnie Hernandez		+1.9
6	3-3	TOLEDO	BGSU×3	Kill	Anastasija Bozic	set Amanda Otten	+1.9
7	3-4	BGSU	BGSU×3	Ace	Cecily Waynar	aced Jessica Costlow	+2.7
8	3-5	BGSU	BGSU×3	Kill	Karli Molnau	set Amanda Otten	+2.7
9	4-5	BGSU	TOLEDO	Kill	Ava Siefke	set Madelyn Bach	+1.9
10	5-5	TOLEDO	TOLEDO	Kill	Lilly Merk	set Janelle Green	+2.8
11	5-6	TOLEDO	BGSU×3	Kill	Karli Molnau	set Amanda Otten	+2.0
12	5-7	BGSU	BGSU×3	Ace	Avery Anders	aced Jessica Costlow	+2.9
13	5-8	BGSU	BGSU×3	Blocked	Sophie Catalano	blk Anastasija Bozic, Helen Wilford	+2.7
14	6-8	BGSU	TOLEDO	Kill	Ava Siefke	set Janelle Green	+1.8
15	7-8	TOLEDO	TOLEDO	Attack err	Helen Wilford		+2.8
16	7-9	TOLEDO	BGSU	Kill	Helen Wilford	set Amanda Otten	+2.1
17	8-9	BGSU	TOLEDO	Kill	Jessica Costlow	set Sophie Catalano	+2.0
18	8-10	TOLEDO	BGSU	Blocked	Sophie Catalano	blk Avery Hobson, Helen Wilford	+2.2
19	8-11	BGSU	BGSU	Attack err	Jessica Costlow		+3.0
20	9-11	BGSU	TOLEDO	Serve err	Sydnie Hernandez		+1.9
21	10-11	TOLEDO	TOLEDO	Blocked	Avery Hobson	blk Sierra Pertzborn	+3.0
22	10-12	TOLEDO	BGSU	Serve err	Madelyn Bach		+2.4
23	11-12	BGSU	TOLEDO×6	Kill	Sierra Pertzborn	set Madelyn Bach	+2.2
24	12-12	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×6	Attack err	Anastasija Bozic		+3.4
25	13-12	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×6	Kill	Kayla Ozanich	set Madelyn Bach	+3.6
26	14-12	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×6	Blocked	Karli Molnau	blk Sierra Pertzborn, Kayla Ozanich	+3.5
27	15-12	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×6	Kill	Sierra Pertzborn	set Madelyn Bach	+3.3
28	16-12	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×6	Kill	Kayla Ozanich	set Madelyn Bach	+2.8
29	16-13	TOLEDO	BGSU	Kill	Avery Hobson	set Amanda Otten	+1.6
30	17-13	BGSU	TOLEDO	Kill	Sierra Pertzborn	set Madelyn Bach	+2.0
31	17-14	TOLEDO	BGSU	Serve err	Grace Freiberger		+1.6
32	18-14	BGSU	TOLEDO	Kill	Ava Siefke	set Grace Freiberger	+2.1
33	18-15	TOLEDO	BGSU×4	Kill	Anastasija Bozic	set Amanda Otten	+1.6
34	18-16	BGSU	BGSU×4	Kill	Anastasija Bozic	set Avery Anders	+3.0
35	18-17	BGSU	BGSU×4	Blocked	Lilly Merk	blk Helen Wilford	+3.8
36	18-18	BGSU	BGSU×4	Attack err	Ava Siefke		+4.5
37	19-18	BGSU	TOLEDO	Serve err	Avery Anders		+3.5
38	19-19	TOLEDO	BGSU	Kill	Anastasija Bozic	set Amanda Otten	+3.5
39	20-19	BGSU	TOLEDO	Attack err	Avery Hobson		+3.8
40	20-20	TOLEDO	BGSU	Kill	Avery Hobson	set Amanda Otten	+3.8
41	21-20	BGSU	TOLEDO	Serve err	Sydnie Hernandez		+4.2
42	21-21	TOLEDO	BGSU×5	Attack err	Jessica Costlow		+4.1
43	21-22	BGSU	BGSU×5	Kill	Anastasija Bozic	set Amanda Otten	+6.8
44	21-23	BGSU	BGSU×5	Blocked	Sierra Pertzborn	blk Cecily Waynar	+6.6
45	21-24	BGSU	BGSU×5	Kill	Karli Molnau	set Amanda Otten	+4.7
46	21-25	BGSU	BGSU×5	Kill	Avery Hobson	set Amanda Otten	+1.8
Set 2
1	0-1	TOLEDO	BGSU×3	Attack err	Lilly Merk		+1.8
2	0-2	BGSU	BGSU×3	Ace	Amanda Otten		+2.6
3	0-3	BGSU	BGSU×3	Ace	Amanda Otten	aced Avery Adamski	+2.5
4	1-3	BGSU	TOLEDO	Kill	Kayla Ozanich	set Madelyn Bach	+1.7
5	1-4	TOLEDO	BGSU	Kill	Cecily Waynar	set Amanda Otten	+1.8
6	2-4	BGSU	TOLEDO	Kill	Kayla Ozanich	set Madelyn Bach	+1.7
7	2-5	TOLEDO	BGSU	Blocked	Ava Siefke	blk Cecily Waynar, Karli Molnau	+1.9
8	3-5	BGSU	TOLEDO	Serve err	Cecily Waynar		+1.7
9	3-6	TOLEDO	BGSU	Kill	Karli Molnau	set Amanda Otten	+1.9
10	4-6	BGSU	TOLEDO	Serve err	Avery Anders		+1.8
11	4-7	TOLEDO	BGSU	Kill	Helen Wilford	set Amanda Otten	+1.9
12	5-7	BGSU	TOLEDO	Kill	Lilly Merk	set Janelle Green	+1.8
13	5-8	TOLEDO	BGSU×3	Kill	Avery Hobson	set Amanda Otten	+2.0
14	5-9	BGSU	BGSU×3	Attack err	Olivia Heitkamp		+2.6
15	5-10	BGSU	BGSU×3	Kill	Cecily Waynar		+2.3
16	6-10	BGSU	TOLEDO	Kill	Jessica Costlow	set Janelle Green	+1.3
17	6-11	TOLEDO	BGSU×3	Kill	Amanda Otten	set Avery Anders	+1.6
18	6-12	BGSU	BGSU×3	Kill	Karli Molnau	set Amanda Otten	+1.9
19	6-13	BGSU	BGSU×3	Kill	Karli Molnau	set Amanda Otten	+1.5
20	7-13	BGSU	TOLEDO	Blocked	Avery Hobson	blk Kayla Ozanich, Sierra Pertzborn	+0.8
21	8-13	TOLEDO	TOLEDO	Ace	Jessica Costlow	aced Avery Hobson	+1.4
22	8-14	TOLEDO	BGSU	Attack err	Sierra Pertzborn		+1.3
23	9-14	BGSU	TOLEDO	Kill	Kayla Ozanich	set Madelyn Bach	+1.0
24	9-15	TOLEDO	BGSU	Kill	Karli Molnau	set Amanda Otten	+1.3
25	10-15	BGSU	TOLEDO	Kill	Lilly Merk	set Madelyn Bach	+1.0
26	10-16	TOLEDO	BGSU	Kill	Karli Molnau	set Amanda Otten	+1.3
27	11-16	BGSU	TOLEDO×3	Blocked	Helen Wilford	blk Olivia Heitkamp	+0.9
28	12-16	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×3	Attack err	Anastasija Bozic		+1.8
29	13-16	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×3	Kill	Lilly Merk	set Janelle Green	+2.4
30	13-17	TOLEDO	BGSU	Kill	Amanda Otten	set Avery Anders	+2.1
31	13-18	BGSU	BGSU	Kill	Avery Hobson	set Amanda Otten	+2.4
32	14-18	BGSU	TOLEDO	Kill	Olivia Heitkamp	set Janelle Green	+1.2
33	14-19	TOLEDO	BGSU	Serve err	Lilly Merk		+1.6
34	14-20	BGSU	BGSU	Kill	Avery Hobson	set Amanda Otten	+1.5
35	15-20	BGSU	TOLEDO	Blocked	Avery Hobson	blk Olivia Heitkamp, Kayla Ozanich	+0.6
36	15-21	TOLEDO	BGSU	Kill	Avery Hobson	set Amanda Otten	+1.0
37	15-22	BGSU	BGSU	Blocked	Sierra Pertzborn	blk Cecily Waynar, Karli Molnau	+0.7
38	16-22	BGSU	TOLEDO×4	Attack err	Avery Hobson		+0.2
39	17-22	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×4	Blocked	Karli Molnau	blk Kayla Ozanich, Ava Siefke	+0.5
40	18-22	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×4	Attack err	Avery Hobson		+1.0
41	19-22	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×4	Kill	Ava Siefke	set Gabbi LeBlanc	+1.7
42	19-23	TOLEDO	BGSU	Bad set	Gabbi LeBlanc		+2.1
43	20-23	BGSU	TOLEDO×4	Blocked	Karli Molnau	blk Kayla Ozanich, Ava Siefke	+1.0
44	21-23	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×4	Attack err	Amanda Otten		+2.6
45	22-23	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×4	Attack err	Karli Molnau		+4.7
46	23-23	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×4	Attack err	Anastasija Bozic		+7.8
47	23-24	TOLEDO	BGSU	Kill	Anastasija Bozic	set Amanda Otten	+7.4
48	23-25	BGSU	BGSU	Kill	Anastasija Bozic	set Amanda Otten	+10.4
Set 3
1	0-1	BGSU	BGSU	Attack err	Kayla Ozanich		+1.7
2	1-1	BGSU	TOLEDO×3	Kill	Kayla Ozanich	set Madelyn Bach	+1.2
3	2-1	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×3	Ace	Grace Freiberger	aced Avery Hobson	+1.8
4	3-1	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×3	Ace	Grace Freiberger	aced Avery Hobson	+1.7
5	3-2	TOLEDO	BGSU	Kill	Karli Molnau	set Sydnie Hernandez	+1.2
6	3-3	BGSU	BGSU	Kill	Helen Wilford		+1.8
7	4-3	BGSU	TOLEDO	Serve err	Cecily Waynar		+1.3
8	5-3	TOLEDO	TOLEDO	Kill	Lilly Merk	set Sydnie Hernandez	+1.8
9	5-4	TOLEDO	BGSU×5	Kill	Anastasija Bozic	set Sydnie Hernandez	+1.2
10	5-5	BGSU	BGSU×5	Kill	Anastasija Bozic	set Amanda Otten	+1.9
11	5-6	BGSU	BGSU×5	Attack err	Olivia Heitkamp		+1.9
12	5-7	BGSU	BGSU×5	Blocked	Olivia Heitkamp	blk Amanda Otten, Helen Wilford	+1.9
13	5-8	BGSU	BGSU×5	Kill	Anastasija Bozic	set Amanda Otten	+1.9
14	6-8	BGSU	TOLEDO	Kill	Lilly Merk	set Janelle Green	+1.2
15	7-8	TOLEDO	TOLEDO	Kill	Lilly Merk	set Janelle Green	+1.9
16	7-9	TOLEDO	BGSU	Kill	Anastasija Bozic	set Amanda Otten	+1.5
17	8-9	BGSU	TOLEDO×6	Kill	Lilly Merk	set Janelle Green	+1.4
18	9-9	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×6	Kill	Olivia Heitkamp	set Janelle Green	+2.1
19	10-9	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×6	Kill	Kayla Ozanich	set Janelle Green	+2.2
20	11-9	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×6	Attack err	Anastasija Bozic		+2.1
21	12-9	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×6	Kill	Olivia Heitkamp	set Janelle Green	+2.0
22	13-9	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×6	Kill	Kayla Ozanich	set Janelle Green	+1.8
23	13-10	TOLEDO	BGSU	Kill	Amanda Otten	set Sydnie Hernandez	+1.1
24	14-10	BGSU	TOLEDO	Kill	Jessica Costlow	set Avery Adamski	+1.3
25	15-10	TOLEDO	TOLEDO	Attack err	Cecily Waynar		+1.5
26	15-11	TOLEDO	BGSU×4	Kill	Avery Hobson	set Amanda Otten	+0.8
27	15-12	BGSU	BGSU×4	Kill	Karli Molnau	set Amanda Otten	+1.5
28	15-13	BGSU	BGSU×4	Ace	Amanda Otten	aced Grace Freiberger	+1.9
29	15-14	BGSU	BGSU×4	Kill	Karli Molnau	set Amanda Otten	+2.3
30	16-14	BGSU	TOLEDO	Kill	Jessica Costlow	set Avery Adamski	+1.8
31	16-15	TOLEDO	BGSU	Kill	Anastasija Bozic	set Amanda Otten	+1.7
32	16-16	BGSU	BGSU	Kill	Karli Molnau	set Amanda Otten	+2.7
33	17-16	BGSU	TOLEDO	Blocked	Cecily Waynar	blk Kayla Ozanich	+2.1
34	17-17	TOLEDO	BGSU	Attack err	Sierra Pertzborn		+2.1
35	18-17	BGSU	TOLEDO	Attack err	Anastasija Bozic		+2.2
36	18-18	TOLEDO	BGSU	Kill	Karli Molnau	set Amanda Otten	+2.2
37	19-18	BGSU	TOLEDO	Kill	Lilly Merk	set Janelle Green	+2.4
38	19-19	TOLEDO	BGSU	Kill	Anastasija Bozic	set Amanda Otten	+2.4
39	19-20	BGSU	BGSU	Blocked	Lilly Merk	blk Helen Wilford	+3.7
40	20-20	BGSU	TOLEDO	Kill	Lilly Merk	set Janelle Green	+2.6
41	21-20	TOLEDO	TOLEDO	Blocked	Avery Hobson	blk Olivia Heitkamp, Kayla Ozanich	+4.1
42	21-21	TOLEDO	BGSU	Kill	Avery Hobson	set Amanda Otten	+2.8
43	22-21	BGSU	TOLEDO	Attack err	Anastasija Bozic		+3.3
44	23-21	TOLEDO	TOLEDO	Attack err	Avery Hobson		+4.4
45	23-22	TOLEDO	BGSU	Kill	Avery Hobson	set Amanda Otten	+2.2
46	24-22	BGSU	TOLEDO	Kill	Kayla Ozanich	set Madelyn Bach	+3.7
47	25-22	TOLEDO	TOLEDO	Kill	Ava Siefke	set Madelyn Bach	+2.8
Set 4
1	0-1	TOLEDO	BGSU	Kill	Karli Molnau	set Amanda Otten	+2.5
2	1-1	BGSU	TOLEDO	Serve err	Bowling Green		+2.4
3	2-1	TOLEDO	TOLEDO	Kill	Kayla Ozanich	set Madelyn Bach	+3.5
4	2-2	TOLEDO	BGSU	Attack err	Ava Siefke		+2.5
5	3-2	BGSU	TOLEDO	Serve err	Bowling Green		+2.5
6	4-2	TOLEDO	TOLEDO	Blocked	Anastasija Bozic	blk Lilly Merk, Sierra Pertzborn	+3.6
7	4-3	TOLEDO	BGSU	Attack err	Ava Siefke		+2.4
8	5-3	BGSU	TOLEDO	Kill	Madelyn Bach	set Jessica Costlow	+2.6
9	6-3	TOLEDO	TOLEDO	Kill	Ava Siefke	set Grace Freiberger	+3.5
10	6-4	TOLEDO	BGSU	Serve err	Janelle Green		+2.3
11	6-5	BGSU	BGSU	Blocked	Lilly Merk	blk Helen Wilford, Anastasija Bozic	+3.6
12	7-5	BGSU	TOLEDO	Kill	Ava Siefke	set Jessica Costlow	+2.7
13	7-6	TOLEDO	BGSU×4	Kill	Anastasija Bozic	set Amanda Otten	+2.6
14	7-7	BGSU	BGSU×4	Blocked	Olivia Heitkamp	blk Helen Wilford, Avery Hobson	+3.9
15	7-8	BGSU	BGSU×4	Kill	Avery Hobson	set Amanda Otten	+4.1
16	7-9	BGSU	BGSU×4	Kill	Amanda Otten	set Grace Freiberger	+4.1
17	8-9	BGSU	TOLEDO×3	Kill	Lilly Merk	set Janelle Green	+2.8
18	9-9	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×3	Blocked	Amanda Otten	blk Jessica Costlow	+4.2
19	10-9	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×3	Kill	Jessica Costlow	set Lilly Merk	+4.3
20	10-10	TOLEDO	BGSU	Kill	Avery Hobson	set Anastasija Bozic	+3.1
21	11-10	BGSU	TOLEDO	Serve err	Sydnie Hernandez		+3.2
22	11-11	TOLEDO	BGSU	Kill	Cecily Waynar	set Amanda Otten	+3.2
23	12-11	BGSU	TOLEDO	Serve err	Amanda Otten		+3.3
24	12-12	TOLEDO	BGSU	Kill	Karli Molnau	set Amanda Otten	+3.3
25	12-13	BGSU	BGSU	Attack err	Sierra Pertzborn		+4.9
26	13-13	BGSU	TOLEDO	Kill	Kayla Ozanich	set Madelyn Bach	+3.4
27	13-14	TOLEDO	BGSU	Kill	Anastasija Bozic	set Amanda Otten	+3.6
28	14-14	BGSU	TOLEDO	Serve err	Katherine Eigner		+3.6
29	14-15	TOLEDO	BGSU	Kill	Anastasija Bozic	set Amanda Otten	+3.8
30	15-15	BGSU	TOLEDO×4	Serve err	Avery Anders		+3.7
31	16-15	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×4	Ace	Avery Adamski	aced Sydnie Hernandez	+5.5
32	17-15	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×4	Kill	Jessica Costlow	set Grace Freiberger	+5.5
33	18-15	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×4	Attack err	Avery Hobson		+4.9
34	18-16	TOLEDO	BGSU×3	Kill	Helen Wilford	set Amanda Otten	+2.9
35	18-17	BGSU	BGSU×3	Kill	Helen Wilford	set Amanda Otten	+5.2
36	18-18	BGSU	BGSU×3	Kill	Helen Wilford	set Amanda Otten	+6.2
37	19-18	BGSU	TOLEDO	Kill	Jessica Costlow	set Janelle Green	+4.8
38	19-19	TOLEDO	BGSU	Blocked	Kayla Ozanich	blk Avery Hobson, Helen Wilford	+4.7
39	20-19	BGSU	TOLEDO×3	Serve err	Sydnie Hernandez		+5.2
40	21-19	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×3	Kill	Jessica Costlow	set Madelyn Bach	+7.1
41	22-19	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×3	Kill	Jessica Costlow	set Madelyn Bach	+5.9
42	22-20	TOLEDO	BGSU×3	Kill	Anastasija Bozic	set Amanda Otten	+2.7
43	22-21	BGSU	BGSU×3	Blocked	Jessica Costlow	blk Cecily Waynar	+6.1
44	22-22	BGSU	BGSU×3	Blocked	Jessica Costlow	blk Cecily Waynar, Karli Molnau	+8.9
45	23-22	BGSU	TOLEDO	Kill	Sierra Pertzborn	set Madelyn Bach	+7.7
46	24-22	TOLEDO	TOLEDO	Attack err	Karli Molnau		+10.3
47	24-23	TOLEDO	BGSU	Kill	Karli Molnau	set Amanda Otten	+4.0
48	25-23	BGSU	TOLEDO	Kill	Sierra Pertzborn	set Madelyn Bach	+8.3
Set 5
1	1-0	TOLEDO	TOLEDO	Blocked	Anastasija Bozic	blk Kayla Ozanich, Sierra Pertzborn	+8.8
2	2-0	TOLEDO	TOLEDO	Bad set	Amanda Otten		+8.7
3	2-1	TOLEDO	BGSU	Blocked	Ava Siefke	blk Karli Molnau, Cecily Waynar	+5.8
4	3-1	BGSU	TOLEDO	Bad set	Amanda Otten		+6.4
5	3-2	TOLEDO	BGSU	Kill	Anastasija Bozic	set Amanda Otten	+6.0
6	4-2	BGSU	TOLEDO	Attack err	Anastasija Bozic		+6.6
7	4-3	TOLEDO	BGSU	Attack err	Olivia Heitkamp		+6.2
8	5-3	BGSU	TOLEDO	Blocked	Avery Hobson	blk Olivia Heitkamp, Lilly Merk	+6.9
9	6-3	TOLEDO	TOLEDO	Attack err	Avery Hobson		+9.0
10	6-4	TOLEDO	BGSU	Attack err	Olivia Heitkamp		+5.5
11	7-4	BGSU	TOLEDO	Attack err	Avery Hobson		+6.6
12	8-4	TOLEDO	TOLEDO	Kill	Kayla Ozanich	set Janelle Green	+7.8
13	8-5	TOLEDO	BGSU	Serve err	Lilly Merk		+4.1
14	8-6	BGSU	BGSU	Bad set	Janelle Green		+7.9
15	9-6	BGSU	TOLEDO×3	Attack err	Avery Hobson		+7.2
16	10-6	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×3	Kill	Kayla Ozanich	set Madelyn Bach	+7.9
17	11-6	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×3	Blocked	Karli Molnau	blk Kayla Ozanich, Jessica Costlow	+5.4
18	11-7	TOLEDO	BGSU	Kill	Avery Hobson	set Anastasija Bozic	+2.1
19	12-7	BGSU	TOLEDO	Kill	Sierra Pertzborn	set Madelyn Bach	+3.5
20	13-7	TOLEDO	TOLEDO	Ace	Jessica Costlow	aced Sydnie Hernandez	+2.4
21	13-8	TOLEDO	BGSU	Serve err	Jessica Costlow		+0.6
22	14-8	BGSU	TOLEDO	Kill	Ava Siefke	set Madelyn Bach	+1.2
23	15-8	TOLEDO	TOLEDO	Kill	Madelyn Bach	set Ava Siefke	+0.3

Score shown after each rally, Toledo first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).

Toledo def. Bowling Green 3–2

From 0–2 and 8%: Toledo came all the way back.