Fairfield vs Marist Volleyball: Fairfield Wins 3-0 (Oct 16)

FinalFri, Oct 16, 2026

3:0

RallyIQ pre-match: Fairfield 69.6% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Oct 16, 5:56 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Fairfield won at Marist 3-0 (25-23, 27-25, 25-15) on Fri, Oct 16, 2026. Fairfield's Mamie Krubally led with 13 kills, and Natalie Carlin added 19 digs.

Data through Nov 3, 4:50 PM CT · final Oct 16

Set	1	2	3	Sets
FAIR	25	27	25	3
MARIST	23	25	15	0

Match story · written from the play-by-play

Down 9–16 in the first, Fairfield took the set and then the match.

The match turned 3 times. Numbers are Fairfield's win probability from the RallyIQ model, rally by rally. RallyIQ gave Fairfield 70% before first serve.

Turning point 1: Set 1 · Fairfield 17–20 Marist
4 straight Fairfield kills turned a 17–20 deficit into a 21–20 lead.
Fairfield 56% → 72%
Turning point 2: Set 1 · Fairfield 22–22 Marist
Fairfield won 3 of the last 4 rallies to take the set 25–23 and lead 1–0.
Fairfield 67% → 83%
Turning point 3: Set 2 · Fairfield 12–8 Marist
Down 8–12, Marist scored 7 straight to lead 15–12.
Fairfield 90% → 74%

Marist above 50Fairfield belowMax swing 8.0%

FairfieldMarist

Sideout %: Fairfield 64.1·Marist 52.6
Break %: Fairfield 47.4·Marist 35.9
Hitting: Fairfield .359·Marist .265
Longest run: Fairfield 6·Marist 7

Mamie Krubally
4 kills inside the turning points, 13 K and .524 for the match (13.5 points).

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Marist above 50 · Fairfield below

Biggest swing: 8.0% to Fairfield — set 1, FAIR 25-23 MARIST. Fairfield ace on Cecilia Potter-Pessoa. MARIST win probability 25% → 17%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

FAIR 63.9%36.1% MARIST

Fairfield wins

3-0

19.4%

3-1

24.5%

3-2

20.0%

Marist wins

3-0

7.5%

3-1

13.0%

3-2

15.6%

FAIR break %: 44.0% vs this opp
MARIST break %: 41.3% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

01
FairfieldAce+8.0%
Fairfield ace on Cecilia Potter-Pessoa
Set 1 · FAIR 25-23 MARIST · FAIR 75% → 83%
02
Sophia Nagy&Mamie KruballyBlock+7.0%
Mallory Reck stuffed by Sophia Nagy & Mamie Krubally
Set 1 · FAIR 23-22 MARIST · FAIR 67% → 74%
03
Harlan WycheBlock+6.7%
Molly Malone stuffed by Harlan Wyche
Set 2 · FAIR 27-25 MARIST · FAIR 87% → 94%
04
Mamie KruballyKill+6.3%
Kill by Mamie Krubally (set by Zofia Sykut)
Set 1 · FAIR 24-23 MARIST · FAIR 69% → 75%
05
Mallory Reck&Sarah BumsteadBlock+6.3%
Sophia Nagy stuffed by Mallory Reck & Sarah Bumstead
Set 1 · FAIR 21-22 MARIST · MARIST 31% → 38%
06
FairfieldAce+5.8%
Fairfield ace on Cecilia Potter-Pessoa
Set 2 · FAIR 23-22 MARIST · FAIR 80% → 86%
07
Sophia NagyKill+5.3%
Kill by Sophia Nagy (set by Zofia Sykut)
Set 2 · FAIR 24-23 MARIST · FAIR 82% → 87%
08
Mallory ReckKill+5.3%
Kill by Mallory Reck (set by Caelyn Dumas)
Set 2 · FAIR 24-24 MARIST · MARIST 13% → 18%

Box score

Official NCAA box

Fairfieldaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
1Mamie KruballyOH	3	13	2	21	.524	0	0	0	2	0	0	1	0.5	13.5
22Harlan WycheMB	3	8	2	15	.400	1	0	0	3	0	2	1	2.5	10.5
8Katelyn CookOH	3	7	4	28	.107	4	0	2	10	0	0	1	0.5	7.5
3Sophia NagyMB	3	5	3	11	.182	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	6
11Zofia SykutS	3	0	0	0	–	26	2	0	4	0	0	0	0	2
7Aislin OldachOH	1	0	0	2	.000	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0
6Emma BortolottiOH	3	11	1	19	.526	0	0	0	1	0	1	1	1.5	12.5
12Julie DufourtL/DS	3	10	1	19	.474	1	1	1	7	3	0	0	0	11
18Natalie CarlinL/DS	3	0	0	1	.000	1	3	0	19	1	0	0	0	3
10Noella MigliuriS	3	1	0	1	1.000	18	2	1	9	0	0	0	0	3
15Daniella SuarezOH	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		55	13	117	.359	51	8	4	57	4	3	6	6	77

Maristhome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
14Mallory ReckOH	3	9	2	29	.241	1	1	1	8	2	2	1	11
10Sarah BumsteadOH	3	8	0	17	.471	2	1	0	3	0	1	0.5	9.5
9Sara DasicOH	3	6	3	25	.120	1	1	0	7	2	0	0	7
8Molly MaloneMB	3	6	3	12	.250	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	7
22Caelyn DumasS	3	4	1	11	.273	28	0	1	9	0	0	0	4
4Claudia KasperskiL/DS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0
15Trinity WoodsMB	3	6	1	14	.357	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.5	6.5
19Kaitlyn OwensS	3	0	0	0	–	1	1	0	4	0	0	0	1
6Cecilia Potter-PessoaL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	4	0	0	10	3	0	0	0
18Savannah SmithMB	1	1	0	1	1.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
7Taylor MillerOH	1	0	0	4	.000	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0
Team totals		40	10	113	.265	37	4	3	43	8	6	3	63

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 6 FAIR · MARIST 7

Set 1

25-23

Longest run 4 FAIRMARIST 4

Set 2

27-25

Longest run 5 FAIRMARIST 7

Set 3

25-15

Longest run 6 FAIRMARIST 2

Bars above the line = Marist leads, below = Fairfield leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Fairfield

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	67%8/12	50%7/14
2	89%8/9	11%1/9
3	78%7/9	42%5/12
4	60%6/10	65%11/17
5	100%6/6	54%7/13
6	33%6/18	45%5/11
All	64%41/64	47%36/76

Marist

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	67%8/12	42%5/12
2	80%8/10	33%4/12
3	40%6/15	11%1/9
4	46%6/13	50%6/12
5	43%6/14	0%0/6
6	50%6/12	54%7/13
All	53%40/76	36%23/64

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

140 rallies

#	FAIR-MARIST	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	FAIR	FAIR	Kill	Sophia Nagy	set Zofia Sykut	+2.1
2	1-1	FAIR	MARIST×3	Kill	Sarah Bumstead	set Claudia Kasperski	+1.6
3	1-2	MARIST	MARIST×3	Attack err	Sophia Nagy		+2.3
4	1-3	MARIST	MARIST×3	Kill	Mallory Reck	set Caelyn Dumas	+2.4
5	2-3	MARIST	FAIR	Kill	Mamie Krubally	set Zofia Sykut	+1.6
6	2-4	FAIR	MARIST	Kill	Mallory Reck	set Caelyn Dumas	+1.8
7	3-4	MARIST	FAIR	Kill	Mamie Krubally	set Zofia Sykut	+1.7
8	3-5	FAIR	MARIST	Kill	Molly Malone	set Caelyn Dumas	+1.9
9	4-5	MARIST	FAIR	Kill	Harlan Wyche	set Zofia Sykut	+1.7
10	4-6	FAIR	MARIST	Kill	Sara Dasic	set Caelyn Dumas	+1.9
11	5-6	MARIST	FAIR	Kill	Emma Bortolotti	set Noella Migliuri	+1.8
12	5-7	FAIR	MARIST	Kill	Sarah Bumstead	set Caelyn Dumas	+2.0
13	6-7	MARIST	FAIR	Serve err	Marist		+1.8
14	6-8	FAIR	MARIST×4	Kill	Caelyn Dumas	set Sarah Bumstead	+2.0
15	6-9	MARIST	MARIST×4	Kill	Mallory Reck	set Cecilia Potter-Pessoa	+2.8
16	6-10	MARIST	MARIST×4	Kill	Mallory Reck	set Caelyn Dumas	+2.7
17	6-11	MARIST	MARIST×4	Attack err	Katelyn Cook		+2.4
18	7-11	MARIST	FAIR	Kill	Sophia Nagy	set Noella Migliuri	+1.4
19	7-12	FAIR	MARIST	Kill	Caelyn Dumas	set Sarah Bumstead	+1.8
20	8-12	MARIST	FAIR	Kill	Sophia Nagy	set Zofia Sykut	+1.4
21	8-13	FAIR	MARIST	Attack err	Julie Dufourt		+1.8
22	8-14	MARIST	MARIST	Kill	Trinity Woods	set Cecilia Potter-Pessoa	+2.1
23	9-14	MARIST	FAIR	Serve err	Marist		+1.1
24	9-15	FAIR	MARIST	Attack err	Harlan Wyche		+1.5
25	9-16	MARIST	MARIST	Attack err	Mamie Krubally		+1.6
26	10-16	MARIST	FAIR×3	Kill	Mamie Krubally	set Zofia Sykut	+0.8
27	11-16	FAIR	FAIR×3	Attack err	Molly Malone		+1.4
28	12-16	FAIR	FAIR×3	Kill	Julie Dufourt		+1.9
29	12-17	FAIR	MARIST	Kill	Sara Dasic	set Caelyn Dumas	+1.9
30	13-17	MARIST	FAIR	Kill	Harlan Wyche	set Noella Migliuri	+1.3
31	14-17	FAIR	FAIR	Kill	Katelyn Cook	set Noella Migliuri	+2.4
32	14-18	FAIR	MARIST	Kill	Sara Dasic	set Caelyn Dumas	+2.3
33	15-18	MARIST	FAIR×3	Kill	Harlan Wyche	set Noella Migliuri	+1.7
34	16-18	FAIR	FAIR×3	Blocked	Sara Dasic	blk Sophia Nagy, Emma Bortolotti	+3.0
35	17-18	FAIR	FAIR×3	Kill	Katelyn Cook	set Julie Dufourt	+3.6
36	17-19	FAIR	MARIST	Attack err	Katelyn Cook		+3.2
37	17-20	MARIST	MARIST	Attack err	Emma Bortolotti		+4.1
38	18-20	MARIST	FAIR×4	Kill	Emma Bortolotti	set Noella Migliuri	+2.2
39	19-20	FAIR	FAIR×4	Kill	Mamie Krubally	set Zofia Sykut	+4.0
40	20-20	FAIR	FAIR×4	Kill	Mamie Krubally	set Zofia Sykut	+4.8
41	21-20	FAIR	FAIR×4	Kill	Mamie Krubally	set Zofia Sykut	+5.2
42	21-21	FAIR	MARIST	Kill	Sarah Bumstead	set Caelyn Dumas	+3.8
43	21-22	MARIST	MARIST	Blocked	Sophia Nagy	blk Mallory Reck, Sarah Bumstead	+6.3
44	22-22	MARIST	FAIR	Kill	Katelyn Cook	set Zofia Sykut	+4.3
45	23-22	FAIR	FAIR	Blocked	Mallory Reck	blk Sophia Nagy, Mamie Krubally	+7.0
46	23-23	FAIR	MARIST	Serve err	Fairfield		+4.9
47	24-23	MARIST	FAIR	Kill	Mamie Krubally	set Zofia Sykut	+6.3
48	25-23	FAIR	FAIR	Ace	Fairfield	aced Cecilia Potter-Pessoa	+8.0
Set 2
1	1-0	MARIST	FAIR	Kill	Katelyn Cook	set Zofia Sykut	+1.3
2	1-1	FAIR	MARIST	Kill	Sarah Bumstead	set Caelyn Dumas	+1.3
3	2-1	MARIST	FAIR	Kill	Julie Dufourt	set Zofia Sykut	+1.3
4	3-1	FAIR	FAIR	Kill	Harlan Wyche	set Zofia Sykut	+1.7
5	3-2	FAIR	MARIST	Kill	Molly Malone	set Caelyn Dumas	+1.2
6	4-2	MARIST	FAIR×5	Kill	Julie Dufourt	set Zofia Sykut	+1.3
7	5-2	FAIR	FAIR×5	Bad set	Caelyn Dumas		+1.6
8	6-2	FAIR	FAIR×5	Ace	Fairfield	aced Sara Dasic	+1.4
9	7-2	FAIR	FAIR×5	Kill	Emma Bortolotti	set Noella Migliuri	+1.2
10	8-2	FAIR	FAIR×5	Ace	Fairfield	aced Mallory Reck	+1.0
11	8-3	FAIR	MARIST×5	Kill	Molly Malone	set Caelyn Dumas	+0.6
12	8-4	MARIST	MARIST×5	Kill	Molly Malone	set Caelyn Dumas	+1.1
13	8-5	MARIST	MARIST×5	Kill	Trinity Woods	set Caelyn Dumas	+1.3
14	8-6	MARIST	MARIST×5	Kill	Sara Dasic	set Mallory Reck	+1.6
15	8-7	MARIST	MARIST×5	Ace	Marist	aced Natalie Carlin	+1.9
16	9-7	MARIST	FAIR	Serve err	Marist		+1.4
17	9-8	FAIR	MARIST	Blocked	Katelyn Cook	blk Molly Malone, Trinity Woods	+1.4
18	10-8	MARIST	FAIR×3	Kill	Harlan Wyche	set Noella Migliuri	+1.5
19	11-8	FAIR	FAIR×3	Kill	Katelyn Cook	set Noella Migliuri	+1.9
20	12-8	FAIR	FAIR×3	Kill	Emma Bortolotti	set Harlan Wyche	+1.6
21	12-9	FAIR	MARIST×7	Kill	Trinity Woods	set Caelyn Dumas	+1.0
22	12-10	MARIST	MARIST×7	Kill	Sarah Bumstead		+1.8
23	12-11	MARIST	MARIST×7	Bad set	Noella Migliuri		+2.1
24	12-12	MARIST	MARIST×7	Ace	Marist	aced Julie Dufourt	+2.5
25	12-13	MARIST	MARIST×7	Attack err	Sophia Nagy		+2.7
26	12-14	MARIST	MARIST×7	Kill	Sara Dasic	set Kaitlyn Owens	+2.8
27	12-15	MARIST	MARIST×7	Attack err	Katelyn Cook		+2.8
28	13-15	MARIST	FAIR	Kill	Sophia Nagy	set Zofia Sykut	+1.7
29	14-15	FAIR	FAIR	Kill	Katelyn Cook	set Zofia Sykut	+2.7
30	14-16	FAIR	MARIST	Kill	Sara Dasic	set Caelyn Dumas	+2.3
31	15-16	MARIST	FAIR	Kill	Mamie Krubally	set Zofia Sykut	+2.0
32	15-17	FAIR	MARIST	Kill	Mallory Reck	set Caelyn Dumas	+2.4
33	16-17	MARIST	FAIR	Kill	Mamie Krubally	set Zofia Sykut	+2.1
34	16-18	FAIR	MARIST	Kill	Molly Malone	set Caelyn Dumas	+2.5
35	17-18	MARIST	FAIR	Kill	Mamie Krubally	set Zofia Sykut	+2.2
36	17-19	FAIR	MARIST	Kill	Molly Malone	set Caelyn Dumas	+2.7
37	18-19	MARIST	FAIR	Kill	Harlan Wyche	set Noella Migliuri	+2.3
38	19-19	FAIR	FAIR	Blocked	Sara Dasic	blk Emma Bortolotti	+3.7
39	19-20	FAIR	MARIST	Serve err	Fairfield		+3.1
40	20-20	MARIST	FAIR	Kill	Emma Bortolotti	set Noella Migliuri	+2.9
41	20-21	FAIR	MARIST	Kill	Trinity Woods	set Caelyn Dumas	+3.4
42	20-22	MARIST	MARIST	Kill	Sarah Bumstead	set Caelyn Dumas	+4.7
43	21-22	MARIST	FAIR×3	Kill	Emma Bortolotti	set Noella Migliuri	+2.6
44	22-22	FAIR	FAIR×3	Ace	Fairfield	aced Cecilia Potter-Pessoa	+5.0
45	23-22	FAIR	FAIR×3	Ace	Fairfield	aced Cecilia Potter-Pessoa	+5.8
46	23-23	FAIR	MARIST	Kill	Sarah Bumstead	set Caelyn Dumas	+4.1
47	24-23	MARIST	FAIR	Kill	Sophia Nagy	set Zofia Sykut	+5.3
48	24-24	FAIR	MARIST	Kill	Mallory Reck	set Caelyn Dumas	+5.3
49	25-24	MARIST	FAIR	Kill	Julie Dufourt	set Zofia Sykut	+5.3
50	25-25	FAIR	MARIST	Attack err	Harlan Wyche		+5.3
51	26-25	MARIST	FAIR	Kill	Julie Dufourt	set Zofia Sykut	+5.3
52	27-25	FAIR	FAIR	Blocked	Molly Malone	blk Harlan Wyche	+6.7
Set 3
1	0-1	FAIR	MARIST	Kill	Mallory Reck	set Caelyn Dumas	+0.8
2	1-1	MARIST	FAIR	Kill	Mamie Krubally	set Zofia Sykut	+0.7
3	1-2	FAIR	MARIST	Blocked	Mamie Krubally	blk Molly Malone, Mallory Reck	+0.8
4	2-2	MARIST	FAIR	Kill	Julie Dufourt	set Zofia Sykut	+0.7
5	3-2	FAIR	FAIR	Ace	Fairfield	aced Sara Dasic	+1.0
6	3-3	FAIR	MARIST	Bad set	Julie Dufourt		+0.8
7	4-3	MARIST	FAIR	Kill	Julie Dufourt	set Zofia Sykut	+0.7
8	5-3	FAIR	FAIR	Kill	Emma Bortolotti	set Natalie Carlin	+1.0
9	5-4	FAIR	MARIST	Kill	Trinity Woods	set Caelyn Dumas	+0.7
10	6-4	MARIST	FAIR	Attack err	Sara Dasic		+0.7
11	6-5	FAIR	MARIST	Kill	Sarah Bumstead	set Caelyn Dumas	+0.7
12	7-5	MARIST	FAIR	Kill	Katelyn Cook	set Noella Migliuri	+0.7
13	7-6	FAIR	MARIST	Kill	Caelyn Dumas	set Cecilia Potter-Pessoa	+0.7
14	7-7	MARIST	MARIST	Ace	Marist	aced Julie Dufourt	+1.1
15	8-7	MARIST	FAIR	Kill	Emma Bortolotti	set Noella Migliuri	+0.8
16	8-8	FAIR	MARIST	Kill	Caelyn Dumas	set Sara Dasic	+0.9
17	8-9	MARIST	MARIST	Ace	Marist	aced Julie Dufourt	+1.3
18	9-9	MARIST	FAIR	Kill	Mamie Krubally	set Zofia Sykut	+0.9
19	9-10	FAIR	MARIST	Serve err	Fairfield		+1.0
20	10-10	MARIST	FAIR×3	Attack err	Mallory Reck		+0.9
21	11-10	FAIR	FAIR×3	Ace	Fairfield	aced Mallory Reck	+1.3
22	12-10	FAIR	FAIR×3	Kill	Mamie Krubally		+1.2
23	12-11	FAIR	MARIST	Kill	Mallory Reck	set Caelyn Dumas	+0.9
24	12-12	MARIST	MARIST	Kill	Trinity Woods	set Cecilia Potter-Pessoa	+1.3
25	13-12	MARIST	FAIR×4	Kill	Julie Dufourt	set Katelyn Cook	+1.0
26	14-12	FAIR	FAIR×4	Kill	Julie Dufourt	set Katelyn Cook	+1.3
27	15-12	FAIR	FAIR×4	Kill	Emma Bortolotti	set Noella Migliuri	+1.2
28	16-12	FAIR	FAIR×4	Blocked	Molly Malone	blk Harlan Wyche	+1.0
29	16-13	FAIR	MARIST	Serve err	Fairfield		+0.6
30	17-13	MARIST	FAIR×6	Kill	Julie Dufourt	set Katelyn Cook	+0.7
31	18-13	FAIR	FAIR×6	Kill	Harlan Wyche	set Noella Migliuri	+0.7
32	19-13	FAIR	FAIR×6	Kill	Harlan Wyche	set Noella Migliuri	+0.5
33	20-13	FAIR	FAIR×6	Blocked	Trinity Woods	blk Katelyn Cook, Harlan Wyche	+0.3
34	21-13	FAIR	FAIR×6	Attack err	Caelyn Dumas		+0.1
35	22-13	FAIR	FAIR×6	Ace	Fairfield	aced Trinity Woods	+0.1
36	22-14	FAIR	MARIST	Kill	Savannah Smith	set Caelyn Dumas	·
37	23-14	MARIST	FAIR	Kill	Emma Bortolotti	set Noella Migliuri	·
38	24-14	FAIR	FAIR	Kill	Noella Migliuri	set Katelyn Cook	·
39	24-15	FAIR	MARIST	Kill	Mallory Reck	set Caelyn Dumas	·
40	25-15	MARIST	FAIR	Kill	Emma Bortolotti	set Noella Migliuri	·

Score shown after each rally, Fairfield first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).

Fairfield def. Marist 3–0

Down 9–16 in the first, Fairfield took the set and then the match.