FinalFri, Aug 28, 2026

AwayNEC

0:3

HomeWCC

Seattle U def. Chicago St. 3–0

(25-12, 25-21, 25-15)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
CHI ST	12	21	15	0
SEATTL	25	25	25	3

RallyIQ model

Win probability

SEATTL above 50 · CHI ST below

Biggest swing: 0.3% to Chicago St. — set 2, CHI ST 14-11 SEATTL. Kill by Kristine Bakhad (set by Nina Mitchell). SEATTL win probability 99% → 99%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

CHI ST 0.9%99.1% SEATTL

Chicago St. wins

3-0

0.1%

3-1

0.2%

3-2

0.6%

Seattle U wins

3-0

75.2%

3-1

20.5%

3-2

3.5%

CHI ST break %: 37.1% vs this opp
SEATTL break %: 55.5% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Kristine BakhadKill+0.3%
Kill by Kristine Bakhad (set by Nina Mitchell)
Set 2 · CHI ST 14-11 SEATTL · CHI ST 1% → 1%
02
CHI ST serverAce+0.2%
Chicago St. ace on Adee Butler
Set 2 · CHI ST 12-10 SEATTL · CHI ST 1% → 1%
03
Rayon ThigpenAttack error+0.2%
Attack error by Rayon Thigpen
Set 2 · CHI ST 14-13 SEATTL · SEATTL 99% → 99%
04
SEATTL serverService error+0.2%
Seattle U service error
Set 2 · CHI ST 13-11 SEATTL · CHI ST 1% → 1%
05
Kristine BakhadAttack error+0.2%
Attack error by Kristine Bakhad
Set 2 · CHI ST 14-14 SEATTL · SEATTL 99% → 99%
06
Adee ButlerKill+0.2%
Kill by Adee Butler (set by Grace Jones)
Set 2 · CHI ST 14-12 SEATTL · SEATTL 99% → 99%
07
Hailey McEllrathAttack error+0.2%
Attack error by Hailey McEllrath
Set 2 · CHI ST 9-7 SEATTL · CHI ST 1% → 1%
08
Nayella GeorgeKill+0.2%
Kill by Nayella George (set by Kristine Bakhad)
Set 2 · CHI ST 15-15 SEATTL · CHI ST 1% → 1%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Chicago St.away

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
9Nina MitchellOH	3	5	5	20	.000	1	1	3	2	1	0	2	1	7
11Nayella GeorgeOH	3	3	8	13	-.385	4	2	0	4	3	0	0	0	5
3Graci LittlejohnMB	3	2	2	12	.000	0	0	0	1	0	1	3	2.5	4.5
2Camryn McCollumOH	3	2	2	15	.000	1	0	2	4	1	0	2	1	3
8Kristine BakhadS	3	3	1	5	.400	9	0	0	4	0	0	0	0	3
4Jenesis PerrinMB	2	0	1	2	-.500	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.5	0.5
7Reece MazzierL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	6	0	0	0	0	0
12Skye RileyOH	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
1Rayon ThigpenMB	2	1	1	4	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
10Eliza CovrigL/DS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6Tenese ButtryDS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
17Hailee CollinsS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		16	20	71	-.056	15	3	8	22	7	1	8	5	48

Seattle Uhome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
6Teagan MeltonOH	3	10	4	19	.316	0	0	0	2	0	0	1	0.5	10.5
4Lexi JonesMB	3	7	3	11	.364	1	0	0	0	0	2	1	2.5	9.5
13Chloee LeslieOH	3	7	4	22	.136	0	1	5	8	1	0	1	0.5	8.5
5Adee ButlerOH	3	7	2	10	.500	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	7
7Hailey McEllrathMB	3	2	4	7	-.286	1	1	2	0	0	0	1	0.5	3.5
1Bella JonesS	3	0	0	0	–	21	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0
12Janae DemantL/DS	3	1	0	1	1.000	4	1	1	6	0	0	0	0	2
2Elaina DuongL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	2	1	9	0	0	0	0	2
10Grace JonesS	3	0	0	0	–	5	2	1	4	0	0	0	0	2
8Orinayo OlukanmiOH	2	0	0	1	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
14Linnaea MooreOH	1	2	0	4	.500	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2
3Clara GarciaL/DS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		36	17	75	.253	33	7	10	31	3	2	4	4	75

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 5 CHI ST · SEATTL 6

Set 1

12-25

Longest run 3 CHI STSEATTL 5

Set 2

21-25

Longest run 5 CHI STSEATTL 6

Set 3

15-25

Longest run 2 CHI STSEATTL 4

Bars above the line = Seattle U leads, below = Chicago St. leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Chicago St.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	32%6/19	29%2/7
2	28%5/18	45%5/11
3	50%5/10	44%4/9
4	56%5/9	50%5/10
5	50%4/8	29%2/7
6	40%4/10	20%1/5
All	39%29/74	39%19/49

Seattle U

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	75%6/8	67%10/15
2	63%5/8	75%15/20
3	42%5/12	62%8/13
4	63%5/8	50%5/10
5	83%5/6	44%4/9
6	57%4/7	43%3/7
All	61%30/49	61%45/74

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

123 rallies

Rally log

#	CHI ST-SEATTL	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	0-1	SEATTL	SEATTL	Attack err	Camryn McCollum		+0.1
2	0-2	SEATTL	SEATTL	Kill	Lexi Jones	set Bella Jones	+0.1
3	1-2	SEATTL	CHI ST	Attack err	Lexi Jones		+0.1
4	2-2	CHI ST	CHI ST	Ace	CHI ST server	aced Chloee Leslie	+0.1
5	2-3	CHI ST	SEATTL×4	Kill	Adee Butler	set Bella Jones	+0.1
6	2-4	SEATTL	SEATTL×4	Kill	Chloee Leslie	set Bella Jones	+0.1
7	2-5	SEATTL	SEATTL×4	Kill	Teagan Melton	set Janae Demant	+0.1
8	2-6	SEATTL	SEATTL×4	Attack err	Nayella George	blk Lexi Jones	+0.1
9	3-6	SEATTL	CHI ST	Kill	Camryn McCollum	set Kristine Bakhad	+0.1
10	3-7	CHI ST	SEATTL	Kill	Chloee Leslie	set Bella Jones	+0.1
11	3-8	SEATTL	SEATTL	Attack err	Jenesis Perrin	blk Hailey McEllrath, Chloee Leslie	+0.1
12	4-8	SEATTL	CHI ST	Attack err	Teagan Melton	blk Graci Littlejohn, Nina Mitchell	+0.0
13	5-8	CHI ST	CHI ST	Kill	Nina Mitchell	set Kristine Bakhad	+0.1
14	5-9	CHI ST	SEATTL×4	Kill	Hailey McEllrath	set Bella Jones	+0.1
15	5-10	SEATTL	SEATTL×4	Bad set	Kristine Bakhad		+0.1
16	5-11	SEATTL	SEATTL×4	Ace	SEATTL server	aced Nayella George	+0.0
17	5-12	SEATTL	SEATTL×4	Attack err	Graci Littlejohn		+0.0
18	6-12	SEATTL	CHI ST	Kill	Graci Littlejohn	set Kristine Bakhad	+0.0
19	6-13	CHI ST	SEATTL	Serve err	CHI ST server		+0.0
20	6-14	SEATTL	SEATTL	Attack err	Nayella George		+0.0
21	7-14	SEATTL	CHI ST	Serve err	SEATTL server		+0.0
22	7-15	CHI ST	SEATTL×4	Serve err	CHI ST server		+0.0
23	7-16	SEATTL	SEATTL×4	Ace	SEATTL server	aced Skye Riley	+0.0
24	7-17	SEATTL	SEATTL×4	Attack err	Nayella George		+0.0
25	7-18	SEATTL	SEATTL×4	Attack err	Nayella George		+0.0
26	8-18	SEATTL	CHI ST×3	Serve err	SEATTL server		+0.0
27	9-18	CHI ST	CHI ST×3	Attack err	Adee Butler		+0.0
28	10-18	CHI ST	CHI ST×3	Attack err	Adee Butler	blk Camryn McCollum, Jenesis Perrin	+0.0
29	10-19	CHI ST	SEATTL	Kill	Lexi Jones	set Grace Jones	+0.0
30	10-20	SEATTL	SEATTL	Attack err	Nina Mitchell	blk Lexi Jones	+0.0
31	11-20	SEATTL	CHI ST	Kill	Nayella George	set Kristine Bakhad	+0.0
32	12-20	CHI ST	CHI ST	Ace	CHI ST server	aced Team	+0.0
33	12-21	CHI ST	SEATTL×5	Kill	Teagan Melton	set Bella Jones	+0.0
34	12-22	SEATTL	SEATTL×5	Attack err	Nina Mitchell	blk Teagan Melton, Lexi Jones	+0.0
35	12-23	SEATTL	SEATTL×5	Kill	Lexi Jones	set Bella Jones	+0.0
36	12-24	SEATTL	SEATTL×5	Kill	Lexi Jones		+0.0
37	12-25	SEATTL	SEATTL×5	Ace	SEATTL server	aced Team	+0.0
Set 2
1	0-1	CHI ST	SEATTL	Kill	Adee Butler	set Bella Jones	+0.1
2	0-2	SEATTL	SEATTL	Ace	SEATTL server	aced Nina Mitchell	+0.1
3	1-2	SEATTL	CHI ST×4	Attack err	Chloee Leslie		+0.1
4	2-2	CHI ST	CHI ST×4	Attack err	Lexi Jones		+0.1
5	3-2	CHI ST	CHI ST×4	Kill	Rayon Thigpen	set Chloee Leslie	+0.1
6	4-2	CHI ST	CHI ST×4	Attack err	Teagan Melton		+0.1
7	4-3	CHI ST	SEATTL×5	Kill	Chloee Leslie	set Bella Jones	+0.1
8	4-4	SEATTL	SEATTL×5	Bad set	Reece Mazzier		+0.1
9	4-5	SEATTL	SEATTL×5	Kill	Teagan Melton	set Janae Demant	+0.1
10	4-6	SEATTL	SEATTL×5	Attack err	Nina Mitchell		+0.1
11	4-7	SEATTL	SEATTL×5	Attack err	Nayella George		+0.1
12	5-7	SEATTL	CHI ST×5	Kill	Nina Mitchell	set Kristine Bakhad	+0.1
13	6-7	CHI ST	CHI ST×5	Attack err	Chloee Leslie	blk Graci Littlejohn, Camryn McCollum	+0.1
14	7-7	CHI ST	CHI ST×5	Attack err	Teagan Melton	blk Nina Mitchell, Graci Littlejohn	+0.1
15	8-7	CHI ST	CHI ST×5	Kill	Nina Mitchell	set Nayella George	+0.1
16	9-7	CHI ST	CHI ST×5	Attack err	Hailey McEllrath		+0.2
17	9-8	CHI ST	SEATTL	Kill	Teagan Melton	set Bella Jones	+0.1
18	9-9	SEATTL	SEATTL	Ace	SEATTL server	aced Nayella George	+0.1
19	10-9	SEATTL	CHI ST	Kill	Graci Littlejohn	set Kristine Bakhad	+0.1
20	10-10	CHI ST	SEATTL	Serve err	CHI ST server		+0.1
21	11-10	SEATTL	CHI ST	Serve err	SEATTL server		+0.2
22	12-10	CHI ST	CHI ST	Ace	CHI ST server	aced Adee Butler	+0.2
23	12-11	CHI ST	SEATTL	Attack err	Nina Mitchell		+0.2
24	13-11	SEATTL	CHI ST	Serve err	SEATTL server		+0.2
25	14-11	CHI ST	CHI ST	Kill	Kristine Bakhad	set Nina Mitchell	+0.3
26	14-12	CHI ST	SEATTL×4	Kill	Adee Butler	set Grace Jones	+0.2
27	14-13	SEATTL	SEATTL×4	Attack err	Rayon Thigpen		+0.2
28	14-14	SEATTL	SEATTL×4	Attack err	Kristine Bakhad		+0.2
29	14-15	SEATTL	SEATTL×4	Attack err	Nayella George		+0.2
30	15-15	SEATTL	CHI ST	Kill	Nayella George	set Kristine Bakhad	+0.2
31	15-16	CHI ST	SEATTL×6	Kill	Adee Butler	set Janae Demant	+0.2
32	15-17	SEATTL	SEATTL×6	Attack err	Camryn McCollum		+0.1
33	15-18	SEATTL	SEATTL×6	Kill	Teagan Melton	set Bella Jones	+0.1
34	15-19	SEATTL	SEATTL×6	Kill	Teagan Melton	set Bella Jones	+0.1
35	15-20	SEATTL	SEATTL×6	Attack err	Nayella George		+0.0
36	15-21	SEATTL	SEATTL×6	Kill	Lexi Jones	set Kristine Bakhad	+0.0
37	16-21	SEATTL	CHI ST	Kill	Nayella George	set Camryn McCollum	+0.0
38	16-22	CHI ST	SEATTL	Kill	Chloee Leslie	set Bella Jones	+0.0
39	17-22	SEATTL	CHI ST	Serve err	SEATTL server		+0.0
40	17-23	CHI ST	SEATTL	Kill	Chloee Leslie	set Bella Jones	+0.0
41	18-23	SEATTL	CHI ST×3	Serve err	SEATTL server		+0.0
42	19-23	CHI ST	CHI ST×3	Kill	Nina Mitchell	set Kristine Bakhad	+0.0
43	20-23	CHI ST	CHI ST×3	Kill	Nina Mitchell	set Nayella George	+0.1
44	20-24	CHI ST	SEATTL	Kill	Chloee Leslie	set Grace Jones	+0.1
45	21-24	SEATTL	CHI ST	Serve err	SEATTL server		+0.0
46	21-25	CHI ST	SEATTL	Serve err	CHI ST server		+0.0
Set 3
1	0-1	SEATTL	SEATTL	Kill	Teagan Melton	set Lexi Jones	+0.0
2	1-1	SEATTL	CHI ST	Attack err	Chloee Leslie		+0.0
3	1-2	CHI ST	SEATTL	Kill	Lexi Jones	set Bella Jones	+0.0
4	2-2	SEATTL	CHI ST	Attack err	Nina Mitchell		+0.0
5	2-3	CHI ST	SEATTL	Kill	Teagan Melton	set Bella Jones	+0.0
6	3-3	SEATTL	CHI ST	Attack err	Hailey McEllrath		+0.0
7	4-3	CHI ST	CHI ST	Kill	Kristine Bakhad	set Nayella George	+0.0
8	4-4	CHI ST	SEATTL	Kill	Chloee Leslie	set Bella Jones	+0.0
9	5-4	SEATTL	CHI ST	Attack err	Hailey McEllrath		+0.0
10	6-4	CHI ST	CHI ST	Attack err	Chloee Leslie		+0.1
11	6-5	CHI ST	SEATTL×4	Serve err	CHI ST server		+0.0
12	6-6	SEATTL	SEATTL×4	Ace	SEATTL server	aced Camryn McCollum	+0.0
13	6-7	SEATTL	SEATTL×4	Kill	Hailey McEllrath	set Grace Jones	+0.0
14	6-8	SEATTL	SEATTL×4	Kill	Janae Demant	set Linnaea Moore	+0.0
15	7-8	SEATTL	CHI ST	Serve err	SEATTL server		+0.0
16	7-9	CHI ST	SEATTL	Serve err	CHI ST server		+0.0
17	8-9	SEATTL	CHI ST	Kill	Kristine Bakhad	set Nayella George	+0.0
18	8-10	CHI ST	SEATTL	Attack err	Nayella George		+0.0
19	9-10	SEATTL	CHI ST	Bad set	Bella Jones		+0.0
20	9-11	CHI ST	SEATTL×3	Kill	Adee Butler	set Bella Jones	+0.0
21	9-12	SEATTL	SEATTL×3	Kill	Teagan Melton	set Bella Jones	+0.0
22	9-13	SEATTL	SEATTL×3	Bad set	Kristine Bakhad		+0.0
23	10-13	SEATTL	CHI ST	Serve err	SEATTL server		+0.0
24	10-14	CHI ST	SEATTL×4	Serve err	CHI ST server		+0.0
25	10-15	SEATTL	SEATTL×4	Kill	Teagan Melton	set Bella Jones	+0.0
26	10-16	SEATTL	SEATTL×4	Ace	SEATTL server	aced Nayella George	+0.0
27	10-17	SEATTL	SEATTL×4	Attack err	Graci Littlejohn		+0.0
28	11-17	SEATTL	CHI ST	Attack err	Teagan Melton		+0.0
29	12-17	CHI ST	CHI ST	Attack err	Hailey McEllrath	blk Graci Littlejohn	+0.0
30	12-18	CHI ST	SEATTL	Serve err	CHI ST server		+0.0
31	12-19	SEATTL	SEATTL	Kill	Linnaea Moore	set Hailey McEllrath	+0.0
32	13-19	SEATTL	CHI ST	Kill	Camryn McCollum	set Kristine Bakhad	+0.0
33	13-20	CHI ST	SEATTL	Kill	Linnaea Moore	set Janae Demant	+0.0
34	14-20	SEATTL	CHI ST	Serve err	SEATTL server		+0.0
35	14-21	CHI ST	SEATTL	Kill	Adee Butler	set Grace Jones	+0.0
36	15-21	SEATTL	CHI ST	Attack err	Lexi Jones		+0.0
37	15-22	CHI ST	SEATTL×4	Kill	Lexi Jones	set Grace Jones	+0.0
38	15-23	SEATTL	SEATTL×4	Attack err	Nina Mitchell		+0.0
39	15-24	SEATTL	SEATTL×4	Kill	Adee Butler	set Bella Jones	+0.0
40	15-25	SEATTL	SEATTL×4	Bad set	Kristine Bakhad		+0.0

Score shown after each rally, Chicago St. first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.