San Diego St. def. CSU Bakersfield 3–1
San Diego St. beat CSU Bakersfield 3-1 (25-17, 20-25, 25-14, 25-19) on Sun, Sep 13, 2026 at a neutral site. San Diego St.'s Ella Schabort led with 17 kills.
Data through · final Sep 13
| Set | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | Sets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SDSU | 25 | 20 | 25 | 25 | 3 |
| CSUBAK | 17 | 25 | 14 | 19 | 1 |
Win probability
Biggest swing: 2.5% to CSU Bakersfield — set 3, SDSU 7-8 CSUBAK. Point CSU Bakersfield (not logged in NCAA feed). CSUBAK win probability 13% → 16%.
Pre-match
Season fit · includes this match
San Diego St. wins
CSU Bakersfield wins
- SDSU break %
- 47.0% vs this opp
- CSUBAK break %
- 35.9% vs this opp
Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.
Top plays
Largest win-probability swings
- 01Unlogged pointNCAA feed gap+2.5%
Point CSU Bakersfield (not logged in NCAA feed)
Set 3 · SDSU 7-8 CSUBAK · CSUBAK 13% → 16%
- 02Suelen LimaKill+2.3%
Kill by Suelen Lima (set by Ella Pallagi)
Set 3 · SDSU 5-6 CSUBAK · CSUBAK 13% → 15%
- 03
- 04
- 05San Diego St.Ace+1.9%
San Diego St. ace
Set 3 · SDSU 11-9 CSUBAK · SDSU 88% → 90%
- 06CSU BakersfieldAce+1.9%
CSU Bakersfield ace
Set 3 · SDSU 5-5 CSUBAK · CSUBAK 11% → 13%
- 07Layla AustinKill+1.7%
Kill by Layla Austin (set by Kendall Mairs)
Set 3 · SDSU 13-10 CSUBAK · SDSU 90% → 91%
- 08San Diego St.Service error+1.6%
San Diego St. service error
Set 3 · SDSU 9-9 CSUBAK · CSUBAK 12% → 14%
Box score
Official NCAA box
| Player | S | K | E | TA | Hit% | AST | SA | SE | DIG | RE | BS | BA | BLK | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 17 | 3 | 32 | .438 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1.5 | 20.5 | |
| 4 | 10 | 7 | 20 | .150 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | |
| 4 | 4 | 1 | 7 | .429 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 8 | |
| 4 | 5 | 3 | 14 | .143 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | |
| 4 | 1 | 0 | 6 | .167 | 44 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | |
| 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .000 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 3 | 11 | 1 | 14 | .714 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 11.5 | |
| 2 | 2 | 2 | 11 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team totals | 51 | 18 | 110 | .300 | 49 | 7 | 11 | 41 | 7 | 2 | 8 | 6 | 95 |
| Player | S | K | E | TA | Hit% | AST | SA | SE | DIG | RE | BS | BA | BLK | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 10 | 5 | 26 | .192 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 15 | |
| 4 | 10 | 2 | 27 | .296 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 11 | |
| 4 | 8 | 0 | 13 | .615 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1.5 | 9.5 | |
| 4 | 6 | 5 | 24 | .042 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 1.5 | 8.5 | |
| 4 | 2 | 4 | 8 | -.250 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | .500 | 16 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -.200 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 1.5 | |
| 4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | .000 | 14 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 0.5 | |
| 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 0.5 | |
| 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team totals | 38 | 18 | 110 | .182 | 34 | 7 | 17 | 31 | 7 | 1 | 13 | 7.5 | 75 |
Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.
Momentum
Point differential by rally
Set 1
25-17
Set 2
20-25
Set 3
25-14
Set 4
25-19
Bars above the line = CSU Bakersfield leads, below = San Diego St. leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.
Rotations
Sideout and break % by rotation slot
San Diego St.
| Slot | Sideout % | Break % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 100%6/6 | 33%2/6 |
| 2 | 46%6/13 | 33%3/9 |
| 3 | 83%5/6 | 58%7/12 |
| 4 | 83%5/6 | 17%1/6 |
| 5 | 44%4/9 | 17%1/6 |
| 6 | 80%4/5 | 20%1/5 |
| All | 67%30/45 | 34%15/44 |
CSU Bakersfield
| Slot | Sideout % | Break % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 67%6/9 | 0%0/6 |
| 2 | 42%5/12 | 54%7/13 |
| 3 | 83%5/6 | 17%1/6 |
| 4 | 83%5/6 | 17%1/6 |
| 5 | 80%4/5 | 56%5/9 |
| 6 | 67%4/6 | 20%1/5 |
| All | 66%29/44 | 33%15/45 |
Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (2 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.
Rally log
170 rallies
| # | SDSU-CSUBAK | Srv | Point | End | Player | Setter / blockers / passer | WP Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Set 1 | |||||||
| 1 | 0-1 | SDSU | CSUBAK | Kill | Defne Yanik | set Luiza Da Cruz | +0.7 |
| 2 | 1-1 | CSUBAK | SDSU×4 | Kill | Ella Schabort | set Zara Stewart | +0.6 |
| 3 | 2-1 | SDSU | SDSU×4 | Kill | Annabelle De Jager | set Kendall Mairs | +0.8 |
| 4 | 3-1 | SDSU | SDSU×4 | Blocked | Nele Broszat | blk Chelsea Cocks | +0.7 |
| 5 | 4-1 | SDSU | SDSU×4 | Blocked | Anna Bacchin | blk Ella Schabort, Chelsea Cocks | +0.6 |
| 6 | 4-2 | SDSU | CSUBAK | Attack err | Annabelle De Jager | +0.4 | |
| 7 | 5-2 | CSUBAK | SDSU | Kill | Chelsea Cocks | set Kendall Mairs | +0.4 |
| 8 | 6-2 | SDSU | SDSU | Bad set | Samantha Capinpin | +0.5 | |
| 9 | 6-3 | SDSU | CSUBAK | Kill | Nele Broszat | set Tessa Schouten | +0.3 |
| 10 | 7-3 | CSUBAK | SDSU×3 | Kill | Ella Schabort | set Kendall Mairs | +0.3 |
| 11 | 8-3 | SDSU | SDSU×3 | Attack err | Nele Broszat | +0.4 | |
| 12 | 9-3 | SDSU | SDSU×3 | Ace | San Diego St. | aced Anna Bacchin | +0.3 |
| 13 | 9-4 | SDSU | CSUBAK×3 | Serve err | San Diego St. | +0.2 | |
| 14 | 9-5 | CSUBAK | CSUBAK×3 | Blocked | Layla Austin | blk Defne Yanik | +0.4 |
| 15 | 9-6 | CSUBAK | CSUBAK×3 | Kill | Suelen Lima | set Nele Broszat | +0.5 |
| 16 | 10-6 | CSUBAK | SDSU | Serve err | CSU Bakersfield | +0.4 | |
| 17 | 11-6 | SDSU | SDSU | Attack err | Leylah Duran | +0.4 | |
| 18 | 11-7 | SDSU | CSUBAK | Kill | Defne Yanik | set Samantha Capinpin | +0.3 |
| 19 | 12-7 | CSUBAK | SDSU | Serve err | CSU Bakersfield | +0.3 | |
| 20 | 12-8 | SDSU | CSUBAK | Kill | Suelen Lima | set Anna Bacchin | +0.3 |
| 21 | 13-8 | CSUBAK | SDSU×3 | Kill | Ella Schabort | set Kendall Mairs | +0.3 |
| 22 | 14-8 | SDSU | SDSU×3 | Blocked | Suelen Lima | blk Chelsea Cocks, Ella Schabort | +0.3 |
| 23 | 15-8 | SDSU | SDSU×3 | Ace | San Diego St. | aced Anna Bacchin | +0.2 |
| 24–25 | 15-10 | CSUBAK 2 | NCAA feed gap2 points not loggedWhy?The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected. | +0.3 | |||
| 26 | 15-11 | CSUBAK | CSUBAK×3 | Attack err | Layla Austin | +0.4 | |
| 27 | 16-11 | CSUBAK | SDSU×4 | Kill | Ella Schabort | set Kendall Mairs | +0.3 |
| 28 | 17-11 | SDSU | SDSU×4 | Kill | Ella Schabort | set Kendall Mairs | +0.3 |
| 29 | 18-11 | SDSU | SDSU×4 | Attack err | Jordyn Waite-Ward | +0.2 | |
| 30 | 19-11 | SDSU | SDSU×4 | Blocked | Anna Bacchin | blk Chelsea Cocks | +0.1 |
| 31 | 19-12 | SDSU | CSUBAK | Kill | Anna Bacchin | set Luiza Da Cruz | · |
| 32 | 20-12 | CSUBAK | SDSU | Attack err | Nele Broszat | +0.1 | |
| 33 | 20-13 | SDSU | CSUBAK | Attack err | Tessa Schouten | · | |
| 34 | 20-14 | CSUBAK | CSUBAK | Kill | Suelen Lima | set Ella Pallagi | +0.1 |
| 35 | 21-14 | CSUBAK | SDSU | Kill | Kendall Mairs | set Ella Schabort | +0.1 |
| 36 | 21-15 | SDSU | CSUBAK | Kill | Nele Broszat | set Ella Pallagi | · |
| 37 | 22-15 | CSUBAK | SDSU×3 | Serve err | CSU Bakersfield | +0.1 | |
| 38 | 23-15 | SDSU | SDSU×3 | Kill | Layla Austin | set Kendall Mairs | · |
| 39 | 24-15 | SDSU | SDSU×3 | Kill | Tessa Schouten | set Kendall Mairs | · |
| 40 | 24-16 | SDSU | CSUBAK | Serve err | San Diego St. | · | |
| 41 | 24-17 | CSUBAK | CSUBAK | Kill | Defne Yanik | set Luiza Da Cruz | · |
| 42 | 25-17 | CSUBAK | SDSU | Kill | Haylee Brown | set Kendall Mairs | · |
| Set 2 | |||||||
| 1 | 1-0 | CSUBAK | SDSU | Kill | Layla Austin | set Kendall Mairs | +0.4 |
| 2 | 2-0 | SDSU | SDSU | Attack err | Nele Broszat | +0.5 | |
| 3 | 2-1 | SDSU | CSUBAK×4 | Serve err | San Diego St. | +0.3 | |
| 4 | 2-2 | CSUBAK | CSUBAK×4 | Kill | Anna Bacchin | set Suelen Lima | +0.6 |
| 5 | 2-3 | CSUBAK | CSUBAK×4 | Kill | Jordyn Waite-Ward | set Luiza Da Cruz | +0.7 |
| 6 | 2-4 | CSUBAK | CSUBAK×4 | Kill | Anna Bacchin | set Luiza Da Cruz | +0.8 |
| 7 | 3-4 | CSUBAK | SDSU | Serve err | CSU Bakersfield | +0.5 | |
| 8 | 3-5 | SDSU | CSUBAK | Kill | Jordyn Waite-Ward | set Luiza Da Cruz | +0.6 |
| 9 | 4-5 | CSUBAK | SDSU | Attack err | Jordyn Waite-Ward | +0.5 | |
| 10 | 4-6 | SDSU | CSUBAK | Kill | Jordyn Waite-Ward | set Ella Pallagi | +0.6 |
| 11 | 4-7 | CSUBAK | CSUBAK | Blocked | Haylee Brown | blk Jordyn Waite-Ward, Leylah Duran | +0.9 |
| 12 | 5-7 | CSUBAK | SDSU | Kill | Tessa Schouten | set Kendall Mairs | +0.5 |
| 13 | 6-7 | SDSU | SDSU | Kill | Layla Austin | set Kendall Mairs | +0.8 |
| 14 | 6-8 | SDSU | CSUBAK×4 | Serve err | San Diego St. | +0.7 | |
| 15 | 6-9 | CSUBAK | CSUBAK×4 | Kill | Defne Yanik | +1.0 | |
| 16 | 6-10 | CSUBAK | CSUBAK×4 | Bad set | Nazare Judd | +1.0 | |
| 17 | 6-11 | CSUBAK | CSUBAK×4 | Ace | CSU Bakersfield | aced Zara Stewart | +1.1 |
| 18 | 7-11 | CSUBAK | SDSU | Serve err | CSU Bakersfield | +0.6 | |
| 19 | 7-12 | SDSU | CSUBAK | Attack err | Layla Austin | +0.8 | |
| 20 | 8-12 | CSUBAK | SDSU | Kill | Layla Austin | set Kendall Mairs | +0.6 |
| 21 | 9-12 | SDSU | SDSU | Kill | Layla Austin | set Kendall Mairs | +0.9 |
| 22 | 9-13 | SDSU | CSUBAK | Kill | Suelen Lima | set Luiza Da Cruz | +0.8 |
| 23 | 10-13 | CSUBAK | SDSU | Serve err | CSU Bakersfield | +0.6 | |
| 24 | 10-14 | SDSU | CSUBAK | Kill | Anna Bacchin | set Luiza Da Cruz | +0.9 |
| 25 | 10-15 | CSUBAK | CSUBAK | Ace | CSU Bakersfield | aced Layla Austin | +1.1 |
| 26 | 11-15 | CSUBAK | SDSU | Kill | Ella Schabort | set Kendall Mairs | +0.6 |
| 27 | 11-16 | SDSU | CSUBAK | Blocked | Annabelle De Jager | blk Torrin Higginbotham, Jordyn Waite-Ward | +0.9 |
| 28 | 12-16 | CSUBAK | SDSU | Kill | Ella Schabort | set Kendall Mairs | +0.6 |
| 29 | 12-17 | SDSU | CSUBAK | Kill | Jordyn Waite-Ward | set Ella Pallagi | +0.9 |
| 30 | 13-17 | CSUBAK | SDSU | Kill | Annabelle De Jager | set Layla Austin | +0.6 |
| 31 | 13-18 | SDSU | CSUBAK | Attack err | Tessa Schouten | +0.9 | |
| 32 | 14-18 | CSUBAK | SDSU | Kill | Layla Austin | set Kendall Mairs | +0.5 |
| 33 | 15-18 | SDSU | SDSU | Attack err | Suelen Lima | +1.0 | |
| 34 | 15-19 | SDSU | CSUBAK | Kill | Anna Bacchin | set Ella Pallagi | +1.0 |
| 35 | 16-19 | CSUBAK | SDSU | Serve err | CSU Bakersfield | +0.7 | |
| 36 | 16-20 | SDSU | CSUBAK | Serve err | San Diego St. | +1.1 | |
| 37 | 17-20 | CSUBAK | SDSU | Kill | Chelsea Cocks | set Kendall Mairs | +0.6 |
| 38 | 17-21 | SDSU | CSUBAK | Kill | Defne Yanik | set Luiza Da Cruz | +1.1 |
| 39 | 17-22 | CSUBAK | CSUBAK | Kill | Jordyn Waite-Ward | set Luiza Da Cruz | +1.1 |
| 40 | 18-22 | CSUBAK | SDSU | Serve err | CSU Bakersfield | +0.3 | |
| 41 | 18-23 | SDSU | CSUBAK | Blocked | Ella Schabort | blk Suelen Lima, Anna Bacchin | +0.7 |
| 42 | 19-23 | CSUBAK | SDSU | Serve err | CSU Bakersfield | +0.2 | |
| 43 | 19-24 | SDSU | CSUBAK | Serve err | San Diego St. | +0.6 | |
| 44 | 20-24 | CSUBAK | SDSU | Kill | Tessa Schouten | set Kendall Mairs | +0.1 |
| 45 | 20-25 | SDSU | CSUBAK | Kill | Leylah Duran | set Ella Pallagi | +0.3 |
| Set 3 | |||||||
| 1 | 1-0 | SDSU | SDSU | Kill | Ella Schabort | set Kendall Mairs | +1.6 |
| 2 | 2-0 | SDSU | SDSU | Ace | San Diego St. | +1.4 | |
| 3 | 2-1 | SDSU | CSUBAK | Kill | Suelen Lima | set Luiza Da Cruz | +1.0 |
| 4 | 3-1 | CSUBAK | SDSU | Kill | Chelsea Cocks | set Kendall Mairs | +1.0 |
| 5 | 4-1 | SDSU | SDSU | Blocked | Anna Bacchin | blk Chelsea Cocks, Ella Schabort | +1.2 |
| 6 | 4-2 | SDSU | CSUBAK | Serve err | San Diego St. | +0.9 | |
| 7 | 5-2 | CSUBAK | SDSU | Kill | Annelise Rising | set Kendall Mairs | +0.8 |
| 8 | 5-3 | SDSU | CSUBAK×4 | Kill | Anna Bacchin | set Ella Pallagi | +0.9 |
| 9 | 5-4 | CSUBAK | CSUBAK×4 | Attack err | Annelise Rising | +1.6 | |
| 10 | 5-5 | CSUBAK | CSUBAK×4 | Ace | CSU Bakersfield | +1.9 | |
| 11 | 5-6 | CSUBAK | CSUBAK×4 | Kill | Suelen Lima | set Ella Pallagi | +2.3 |
| 12 | 6-6 | CSUBAK | SDSU | Kill | Tessa Schouten | set Kendall Mairs | +1.5 |
| 13 | 7-6 | SDSU | SDSU | Kill | Annelise Rising | +2.0 | |
| 14 | 7-7 | SDSU | CSUBAK | Kill | Jordyn Waite-Ward | set Ella Pallagi | +1.5 |
| 15–16 | 8-8 | SDSU · CSUBAK | NCAA feed gap2 points not loggedWhy?The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected. | +0.9 | |||
| 17 | 9-8 | SDSU | SDSU | Attack err | Leylah Duran | +2.1 | |
| 18 | 9-9 | SDSU | CSUBAK | Serve err | San Diego St. | +1.6 | |
| 19 | 10-9 | CSUBAK | SDSU | Kill | Tessa Schouten | set Kendall Mairs | +1.5 |
| 20 | 11-9 | SDSU | SDSU | Ace | San Diego St. | +1.9 | |
| 21 | 11-10 | SDSU | CSUBAK | Kill | Suelen Lima | set Luiza Da Cruz | +1.4 |
| 22 | 12-10 | CSUBAK | SDSU×4 | Kill | Layla Austin | set Kendall Mairs | +1.4 |
| 23 | 13-10 | SDSU | SDSU×4 | Kill | Layla Austin | set Kendall Mairs | +1.7 |
| 24 | 14-10 | SDSU | SDSU×4 | Kill | Ella Schabort | set Kendall Mairs | +1.3 |
| 25 | 15-10 | SDSU | SDSU×4 | Attack err | Anna Bacchin | +0.9 | |
| 26 | 15-11 | SDSU | CSUBAK | Kill | Suelen Lima | set Luiza Da Cruz | +0.5 |
| 27 | 15-12 | CSUBAK | CSUBAK | Attack err | Chelsea Cocks | +1.1 | |
| 28 | 16-12 | CSUBAK | SDSU×5 | Kill | Ella Schabort | set Kendall Mairs | +0.9 |
| 29 | 17-12 | SDSU | SDSU×5 | Kill | Annelise Rising | +0.9 | |
| 30 | 18-12 | SDSU | SDSU×5 | Kill | Annelise Rising | set Kendall Mairs | +0.6 |
| 31 | 19-12 | SDSU | SDSU×5 | Ace | San Diego St. | +0.3 | |
| 32 | 20-12 | SDSU | SDSU×5 | Blocked | Jordyn Waite-Ward | blk Chelsea Cocks, Annelise Rising | +0.2 |
| 33 | 20-13 | SDSU | CSUBAK | Serve err | San Diego St. | +0.1 | |
| 34 | 21-13 | CSUBAK | SDSU×4 | Kill | Leylah Duran | set Kendall Mairs | +0.1 |
| 35 | 22-13 | SDSU | SDSU×4 | Ace | San Diego St. | aced Suelen Lima | · |
| 36 | 23-13 | SDSU | SDSU×4 | Kill | Ella Schabort | set Kendall Mairs | · |
| 37 | 24-13 | SDSU | SDSU×4 | Attack err | Jordyn Waite-Ward | · | |
| 38 | 24-14 | SDSU | CSUBAK | Kill | Jordyn Waite-Ward | set Leylah Duran | · |
| 39 | 25-14 | CSUBAK | SDSU | Serve err | CSU Bakersfield | · | |
| Set 4 | |||||||
| 1 | 1-0 | CSUBAK | SDSU×3 | Serve err | CSU Bakersfield | +0.8 | |
| 2 | 2-0 | SDSU | SDSU×3 | Attack err | Anna Bacchin | +1.0 | |
| 3 | 3-0 | SDSU | SDSU×3 | Kill | Annelise Rising | set Kendall Mairs | +0.9 |
| 4 | 3-1 | SDSU | CSUBAK | Kill | Luiza Da Cruz | +0.6 | |
| 5 | 3-2 | CSUBAK | CSUBAK | Blocked | Ella Schabort | blk Anna Bacchin, Jordyn Waite-Ward | +1.1 |
| 6 | 4-2 | CSUBAK | SDSU×7 | Kill | Annelise Rising | set Kendall Mairs | +0.7 |
| 7 | 5-2 | SDSU | SDSU×7 | Attack err | Jordyn Waite-Ward | +0.9 | |
| 8 | 6-2 | SDSU | SDSU×7 | Kill | Ella Schabort | set Zara Stewart | +0.7 |
| 9 | 7-2 | SDSU | SDSU×7 | Kill | Ella Schabort | set Kendall Mairs | +0.6 |
| 10 | 8-2 | SDSU | SDSU×7 | Kill | Annelise Rising | set Kendall Mairs | +0.4 |
| 11 | 9-2 | SDSU | SDSU×7 | Kill | Annelise Rising | set Kendall Mairs | +0.3 |
| 12 | 10-2 | SDSU | SDSU×7 | Kill | Ella Schabort | set Zara Stewart | +0.2 |
| 13 | 10-3 | SDSU | CSUBAK | Serve err | San Diego St. | +0.1 | |
| 14 | 11-3 | CSUBAK | SDSU | Kill | Annelise Rising | set Kendall Mairs | +0.1 |
| 15 | 11-4 | SDSU | CSUBAK | Kill | Jordyn Waite-Ward | set Ella Pallagi | +0.1 |
| 16 | 12-4 | CSUBAK | SDSU | Serve err | CSU Bakersfield | +0.1 | |
| 17 | 12-5 | SDSU | CSUBAK | Kill | Jordyn Waite-Ward | set Ella Pallagi | +0.1 |
| 18 | 12-6 | CSUBAK | CSUBAK | Ace | CSU Bakersfield | aced Nazare Judd | +0.2 |
| 19 | 13-6 | CSUBAK | SDSU | Serve err | CSU Bakersfield | +0.2 | |
| 20 | 13-7 | SDSU | CSUBAK | Kill | Suelen Lima | set Ella Pallagi | +0.2 |
| 21 | 14-7 | CSUBAK | SDSU | Kill | Layla Austin | set Kendall Mairs | +0.2 |
| 22 | 14-8 | SDSU | CSUBAK | Attack err | Layla Austin | +0.2 | |
| 23 | 15-8 | CSUBAK | SDSU | Serve err | CSU Bakersfield | +0.2 | |
| 24 | 15-9 | SDSU | CSUBAK | Kill | Defne Yanik | set Ella Pallagi | +0.2 |
| 25 | 16-9 | CSUBAK | SDSU | Kill | Annelise Rising | set Kendall Mairs | +0.2 |
| 26 | 17-9 | SDSU | SDSU | Kill | Ella Schabort | set Kendall Mairs | +0.2 |
| 27 | 17-10 | SDSU | CSUBAK | Attack err | Ella Schabort | +0.1 | |
| 28 | 17-11 | CSUBAK | CSUBAK | Attack err | Tessa Schouten | +0.2 | |
| 29 | 18-11 | CSUBAK | SDSU | Kill | Ella Schabort | set Kendall Mairs | +0.2 |
| 30 | 19-11 | SDSU | SDSU | Ace | San Diego St. | aced Suelen Lima | +0.1 |
| 31 | 19-12 | SDSU | CSUBAK | Attack err | Layla Austin | +0.1 | |
| 32 | 20-12 | CSUBAK | SDSU | Kill | Layla Austin | set Kendall Mairs | +0.1 |
| 33 | 20-13 | SDSU | CSUBAK | Serve err | San Diego St. | · | |
| 34 | 20-14 | CSUBAK | CSUBAK | Ace | CSU Bakersfield | +0.1 | |
| 35 | 21-14 | CSUBAK | SDSU | Serve err | CSU Bakersfield | +0.1 | |
| 36 | 21-15 | SDSU | CSUBAK | Kill | Defne Yanik | set Ella Pallagi | +0.1 |
| 37 | 21-16 | CSUBAK | CSUBAK | Blocked | Layla Austin | blk Suelen Lima, Defne Yanik, Ella Pallagi | +0.2 |
| 38 | 22-16 | CSUBAK | SDSU | Kill | Chelsea Cocks | set Kendall Mairs | +0.2 |
| 39 | 23-16 | SDSU | SDSU | Serve err | San Diego St. | +0.1 | |
| 40 | 23-17 | SDSU | CSUBAK | Kill | Suelen Lima | set Luiza Da Cruz | · |
| 41 | 24-17 | CSUBAK | SDSU | Serve err | CSU Bakersfield | · | |
| 42 | 24-18 | SDSU | CSUBAK | Kill | Defne Yanik | set Luiza Da Cruz | · |
| 43 | 24-19 | CSUBAK | CSUBAK | Blocked | Layla Austin | blk Jordyn Waite-Ward, Anna Bacchin | · |
| 44 | 25-19 | CSUBAK | SDSU | Kill | Ella Schabort | set Kendall Mairs | +0.1 |
Score shown after each rally, San Diego St. first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).