Final · 4 setsSun, Sep 13, 2026 · Neutral site

San Diego St. def. CSU Bakersfield 3–1

San Diego St. beat CSU Bakersfield 3-1 (25-17, 20-25, 25-14, 25-19) on Sun, Sep 13, 2026 at a neutral site. San Diego St.'s Ella Schabort led with 17 kills.

Data through · final Sep 13

Set1234Sets
SDSU252025253
CSUBAK172514191

Win probability

CSU Bakersfield above 50 · San Diego St. below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100+2.5% CSUBAKrally 170 · set 4

Biggest swing: 2.5% to CSU Bakersfield — set 3, SDSU 7-8 CSUBAK. Point CSU Bakersfield (not logged in NCAA feed). CSUBAK win probability 13% → 16%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

SDSU 92.9%7.1% CSUBAK

San Diego St. wins

3-0
50.0%
3-1
30.9%
3-2
11.9%

CSU Bakersfield wins

3-0
0.9%
3-1
2.1%
3-2
4.2%
SDSU break %
47.0% vs this opp
CSUBAK break %
35.9% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Unlogged pointNCAA feed gap+2.5%

    Point CSU Bakersfield (not logged in NCAA feed)

    Set 3 · SDSU 7-8 CSUBAK · CSUBAK 13% → 16%

  2. 02
    Suelen LimaKill+2.3%

    Kill by Suelen Lima (set by Ella Pallagi)

    Set 3 · SDSU 5-6 CSUBAK · CSUBAK 13% → 15%

  3. 03
    Leylah DuranAttack error+2.1%

    Attack error by Leylah Duran

    Set 3 · SDSU 9-8 CSUBAK · SDSU 86% → 88%

  4. 04

    Kill by Annelise Rising

    Set 3 · SDSU 7-6 CSUBAK · SDSU 86% → 88%

  5. 05
    San Diego St.Ace+1.9%

    San Diego St. ace

    Set 3 · SDSU 11-9 CSUBAK · SDSU 88% → 90%

  6. 06
    CSU BakersfieldAce+1.9%

    CSU Bakersfield ace

    Set 3 · SDSU 5-5 CSUBAK · CSUBAK 11% → 13%

  7. 07
    Layla AustinKill+1.7%

    Kill by Layla Austin (set by Kendall Mairs)

    Set 3 · SDSU 13-10 CSUBAK · SDSU 90% → 91%

  8. 08
    San Diego St.Service error+1.6%

    San Diego St. service error

    Set 3 · SDSU 9-9 CSUBAK · CSUBAK 12% → 14%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
417332.43812230031.520.5
410720.1501139100011
4417.429000002448
45314.143010200006
4106.1674421800003
4000–000510000
4001.000311910001
311114.71400210010.511.5
22211.000002400002
2115.000000000001
1000–000000000
Team totals5118110.3004971141728695
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
410526.1920331004215
410227.2961047202111
48013.61500000111.59.5
46524.04211032031.58.5
4248-.250002200002
4102.5001602700001
4000–022600002
4125-.20010010010.51.5
4003.000140130010.50.5
2000–011000001
2002.00000000010.50.5
2000–002000000
1000–000000000
1000–100100000
Team totals3818110.182347173171137.575

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 7 SDSU · CSUBAK 4

Set 1

25-17

Longest run 4 SDSUCSUBAK 3

Set 2

20-25

Longest run 2 SDSUCSUBAK 4

Set 3

25-14

Longest run 5 SDSUCSUBAK 4

Set 4

25-19

Longest run 7 SDSUCSUBAK 2

Bars above the line = CSU Bakersfield leads, below = San Diego St. leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

San Diego St.

SlotSideout %Break %
1
100%6/6
33%2/6
2
46%6/13
33%3/9
3
83%5/6
58%7/12
4
83%5/6
17%1/6
5
44%4/9
17%1/6
6
80%4/5
20%1/5
All
67%30/45
34%15/44

CSU Bakersfield

SlotSideout %Break %
1
67%6/9
0%0/6
2
42%5/12
54%7/13
3
83%5/6
17%1/6
4
83%5/6
17%1/6
5
80%4/5
56%5/9
6
67%4/6
20%1/5
All
66%29/44
33%15/45

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (2 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

170 rallies

#SDSU-CSUBAKSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
10-1SDSUCSUBAKKillDefne Yanikset Luiza Da Cruz+0.7
21-1CSUBAKSDSU×4KillElla Schabortset Zara Stewart+0.6
32-1SDSUSDSU×4KillAnnabelle De Jagerset Kendall Mairs+0.8
43-1SDSUSDSU×4BlockedNele Broszatblk Chelsea Cocks+0.7
54-1SDSUSDSU×4BlockedAnna Bacchinblk Ella Schabort, Chelsea Cocks+0.6
64-2SDSUCSUBAKAttack errAnnabelle De Jager+0.4
75-2CSUBAKSDSUKillChelsea Cocksset Kendall Mairs+0.4
86-2SDSUSDSUBad setSamantha Capinpin+0.5
96-3SDSUCSUBAKKillNele Broszatset Tessa Schouten+0.3
107-3CSUBAKSDSU×3KillElla Schabortset Kendall Mairs+0.3
118-3SDSUSDSU×3Attack errNele Broszat+0.4
129-3SDSUSDSU×3AceSan Diego St.aced Anna Bacchin+0.3
139-4SDSUCSUBAK×3Serve errSan Diego St.+0.2
149-5CSUBAKCSUBAK×3BlockedLayla Austinblk Defne Yanik+0.4
159-6CSUBAKCSUBAK×3KillSuelen Limaset Nele Broszat+0.5
1610-6CSUBAKSDSUServe errCSU Bakersfield+0.4
1711-6SDSUSDSUAttack errLeylah Duran+0.4
1811-7SDSUCSUBAKKillDefne Yanikset Samantha Capinpin+0.3
1912-7CSUBAKSDSUServe errCSU Bakersfield+0.3
2012-8SDSUCSUBAKKillSuelen Limaset Anna Bacchin+0.3
2113-8CSUBAKSDSU×3KillElla Schabortset Kendall Mairs+0.3
2214-8SDSUSDSU×3BlockedSuelen Limablk Chelsea Cocks, Ella Schabort+0.3
2315-8SDSUSDSU×3AceSan Diego St.aced Anna Bacchin+0.2
24–2515-10CSUBAK 2
NCAA feed gap2 points not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+0.3
2615-11CSUBAKCSUBAK×3Attack errLayla Austin+0.4
2716-11CSUBAKSDSU×4KillElla Schabortset Kendall Mairs+0.3
2817-11SDSUSDSU×4KillElla Schabortset Kendall Mairs+0.3
2918-11SDSUSDSU×4Attack errJordyn Waite-Ward+0.2
3019-11SDSUSDSU×4BlockedAnna Bacchinblk Chelsea Cocks+0.1
3119-12SDSUCSUBAKKillAnna Bacchinset Luiza Da Cruz·
3220-12CSUBAKSDSUAttack errNele Broszat+0.1
3320-13SDSUCSUBAKAttack errTessa Schouten·
3420-14CSUBAKCSUBAKKillSuelen Limaset Ella Pallagi+0.1
3521-14CSUBAKSDSUKillKendall Mairsset Ella Schabort+0.1
3621-15SDSUCSUBAKKillNele Broszatset Ella Pallagi·
3722-15CSUBAKSDSU×3Serve errCSU Bakersfield+0.1
3823-15SDSUSDSU×3KillLayla Austinset Kendall Mairs·
3924-15SDSUSDSU×3KillTessa Schoutenset Kendall Mairs·
4024-16SDSUCSUBAKServe errSan Diego St.·
4124-17CSUBAKCSUBAKKillDefne Yanikset Luiza Da Cruz·
4225-17CSUBAKSDSUKillHaylee Brownset Kendall Mairs·
Set 2
11-0CSUBAKSDSUKillLayla Austinset Kendall Mairs+0.4
22-0SDSUSDSUAttack errNele Broszat+0.5
32-1SDSUCSUBAK×4Serve errSan Diego St.+0.3
42-2CSUBAKCSUBAK×4KillAnna Bacchinset Suelen Lima+0.6
52-3CSUBAKCSUBAK×4KillJordyn Waite-Wardset Luiza Da Cruz+0.7
62-4CSUBAKCSUBAK×4KillAnna Bacchinset Luiza Da Cruz+0.8
73-4CSUBAKSDSUServe errCSU Bakersfield+0.5
83-5SDSUCSUBAKKillJordyn Waite-Wardset Luiza Da Cruz+0.6
94-5CSUBAKSDSUAttack errJordyn Waite-Ward+0.5
104-6SDSUCSUBAKKillJordyn Waite-Wardset Ella Pallagi+0.6
114-7CSUBAKCSUBAKBlockedHaylee Brownblk Jordyn Waite-Ward, Leylah Duran+0.9
125-7CSUBAKSDSUKillTessa Schoutenset Kendall Mairs+0.5
136-7SDSUSDSUKillLayla Austinset Kendall Mairs+0.8
146-8SDSUCSUBAK×4Serve errSan Diego St.+0.7
156-9CSUBAKCSUBAK×4KillDefne Yanik+1.0
166-10CSUBAKCSUBAK×4Bad setNazare Judd+1.0
176-11CSUBAKCSUBAK×4AceCSU Bakersfieldaced Zara Stewart+1.1
187-11CSUBAKSDSUServe errCSU Bakersfield+0.6
197-12SDSUCSUBAKAttack errLayla Austin+0.8
208-12CSUBAKSDSUKillLayla Austinset Kendall Mairs+0.6
219-12SDSUSDSUKillLayla Austinset Kendall Mairs+0.9
229-13SDSUCSUBAKKillSuelen Limaset Luiza Da Cruz+0.8
2310-13CSUBAKSDSUServe errCSU Bakersfield+0.6
2410-14SDSUCSUBAKKillAnna Bacchinset Luiza Da Cruz+0.9
2510-15CSUBAKCSUBAKAceCSU Bakersfieldaced Layla Austin+1.1
2611-15CSUBAKSDSUKillElla Schabortset Kendall Mairs+0.6
2711-16SDSUCSUBAKBlockedAnnabelle De Jagerblk Torrin Higginbotham, Jordyn Waite-Ward+0.9
2812-16CSUBAKSDSUKillElla Schabortset Kendall Mairs+0.6
2912-17SDSUCSUBAKKillJordyn Waite-Wardset Ella Pallagi+0.9
3013-17CSUBAKSDSUKillAnnabelle De Jagerset Layla Austin+0.6
3113-18SDSUCSUBAKAttack errTessa Schouten+0.9
3214-18CSUBAKSDSUKillLayla Austinset Kendall Mairs+0.5
3315-18SDSUSDSUAttack errSuelen Lima+1.0
3415-19SDSUCSUBAKKillAnna Bacchinset Ella Pallagi+1.0
3516-19CSUBAKSDSUServe errCSU Bakersfield+0.7
3616-20SDSUCSUBAKServe errSan Diego St.+1.1
3717-20CSUBAKSDSUKillChelsea Cocksset Kendall Mairs+0.6
3817-21SDSUCSUBAKKillDefne Yanikset Luiza Da Cruz+1.1
3917-22CSUBAKCSUBAKKillJordyn Waite-Wardset Luiza Da Cruz+1.1
4018-22CSUBAKSDSUServe errCSU Bakersfield+0.3
4118-23SDSUCSUBAKBlockedElla Schabortblk Suelen Lima, Anna Bacchin+0.7
4219-23CSUBAKSDSUServe errCSU Bakersfield+0.2
4319-24SDSUCSUBAKServe errSan Diego St.+0.6
4420-24CSUBAKSDSUKillTessa Schoutenset Kendall Mairs+0.1
4520-25SDSUCSUBAKKillLeylah Duranset Ella Pallagi+0.3
Set 3
11-0SDSUSDSUKillElla Schabortset Kendall Mairs+1.6
22-0SDSUSDSUAceSan Diego St.+1.4
32-1SDSUCSUBAKKillSuelen Limaset Luiza Da Cruz+1.0
43-1CSUBAKSDSUKillChelsea Cocksset Kendall Mairs+1.0
54-1SDSUSDSUBlockedAnna Bacchinblk Chelsea Cocks, Ella Schabort+1.2
64-2SDSUCSUBAKServe errSan Diego St.+0.9
75-2CSUBAKSDSUKillAnnelise Risingset Kendall Mairs+0.8
85-3SDSUCSUBAK×4KillAnna Bacchinset Ella Pallagi+0.9
95-4CSUBAKCSUBAK×4Attack errAnnelise Rising+1.6
105-5CSUBAKCSUBAK×4AceCSU Bakersfield+1.9
115-6CSUBAKCSUBAK×4KillSuelen Limaset Ella Pallagi+2.3
126-6CSUBAKSDSUKillTessa Schoutenset Kendall Mairs+1.5
137-6SDSUSDSUKillAnnelise Rising+2.0
147-7SDSUCSUBAKKillJordyn Waite-Wardset Ella Pallagi+1.5
15–168-8SDSU · CSUBAK
NCAA feed gap2 points not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+0.9
179-8SDSUSDSUAttack errLeylah Duran+2.1
189-9SDSUCSUBAKServe errSan Diego St.+1.6
1910-9CSUBAKSDSUKillTessa Schoutenset Kendall Mairs+1.5
2011-9SDSUSDSUAceSan Diego St.+1.9
2111-10SDSUCSUBAKKillSuelen Limaset Luiza Da Cruz+1.4
2212-10CSUBAKSDSU×4KillLayla Austinset Kendall Mairs+1.4
2313-10SDSUSDSU×4KillLayla Austinset Kendall Mairs+1.7
2414-10SDSUSDSU×4KillElla Schabortset Kendall Mairs+1.3
2515-10SDSUSDSU×4Attack errAnna Bacchin+0.9
2615-11SDSUCSUBAKKillSuelen Limaset Luiza Da Cruz+0.5
2715-12CSUBAKCSUBAKAttack errChelsea Cocks+1.1
2816-12CSUBAKSDSU×5KillElla Schabortset Kendall Mairs+0.9
2917-12SDSUSDSU×5KillAnnelise Rising+0.9
3018-12SDSUSDSU×5KillAnnelise Risingset Kendall Mairs+0.6
3119-12SDSUSDSU×5AceSan Diego St.+0.3
3220-12SDSUSDSU×5BlockedJordyn Waite-Wardblk Chelsea Cocks, Annelise Rising+0.2
3320-13SDSUCSUBAKServe errSan Diego St.+0.1
3421-13CSUBAKSDSU×4KillLeylah Duranset Kendall Mairs+0.1
3522-13SDSUSDSU×4AceSan Diego St.aced Suelen Lima·
3623-13SDSUSDSU×4KillElla Schabortset Kendall Mairs·
3724-13SDSUSDSU×4Attack errJordyn Waite-Ward·
3824-14SDSUCSUBAKKillJordyn Waite-Wardset Leylah Duran·
3925-14CSUBAKSDSUServe errCSU Bakersfield·
Set 4
11-0CSUBAKSDSU×3Serve errCSU Bakersfield+0.8
22-0SDSUSDSU×3Attack errAnna Bacchin+1.0
33-0SDSUSDSU×3KillAnnelise Risingset Kendall Mairs+0.9
43-1SDSUCSUBAKKillLuiza Da Cruz+0.6
53-2CSUBAKCSUBAKBlockedElla Schabortblk Anna Bacchin, Jordyn Waite-Ward+1.1
64-2CSUBAKSDSU×7KillAnnelise Risingset Kendall Mairs+0.7
75-2SDSUSDSU×7Attack errJordyn Waite-Ward+0.9
86-2SDSUSDSU×7KillElla Schabortset Zara Stewart+0.7
97-2SDSUSDSU×7KillElla Schabortset Kendall Mairs+0.6
108-2SDSUSDSU×7KillAnnelise Risingset Kendall Mairs+0.4
119-2SDSUSDSU×7KillAnnelise Risingset Kendall Mairs+0.3
1210-2SDSUSDSU×7KillElla Schabortset Zara Stewart+0.2
1310-3SDSUCSUBAKServe errSan Diego St.+0.1
1411-3CSUBAKSDSUKillAnnelise Risingset Kendall Mairs+0.1
1511-4SDSUCSUBAKKillJordyn Waite-Wardset Ella Pallagi+0.1
1612-4CSUBAKSDSUServe errCSU Bakersfield+0.1
1712-5SDSUCSUBAKKillJordyn Waite-Wardset Ella Pallagi+0.1
1812-6CSUBAKCSUBAKAceCSU Bakersfieldaced Nazare Judd+0.2
1913-6CSUBAKSDSUServe errCSU Bakersfield+0.2
2013-7SDSUCSUBAKKillSuelen Limaset Ella Pallagi+0.2
2114-7CSUBAKSDSUKillLayla Austinset Kendall Mairs+0.2
2214-8SDSUCSUBAKAttack errLayla Austin+0.2
2315-8CSUBAKSDSUServe errCSU Bakersfield+0.2
2415-9SDSUCSUBAKKillDefne Yanikset Ella Pallagi+0.2
2516-9CSUBAKSDSUKillAnnelise Risingset Kendall Mairs+0.2
2617-9SDSUSDSUKillElla Schabortset Kendall Mairs+0.2
2717-10SDSUCSUBAKAttack errElla Schabort+0.1
2817-11CSUBAKCSUBAKAttack errTessa Schouten+0.2
2918-11CSUBAKSDSUKillElla Schabortset Kendall Mairs+0.2
3019-11SDSUSDSUAceSan Diego St.aced Suelen Lima+0.1
3119-12SDSUCSUBAKAttack errLayla Austin+0.1
3220-12CSUBAKSDSUKillLayla Austinset Kendall Mairs+0.1
3320-13SDSUCSUBAKServe errSan Diego St.·
3420-14CSUBAKCSUBAKAceCSU Bakersfield+0.1
3521-14CSUBAKSDSUServe errCSU Bakersfield+0.1
3621-15SDSUCSUBAKKillDefne Yanikset Ella Pallagi+0.1
3721-16CSUBAKCSUBAKBlockedLayla Austinblk Suelen Lima, Defne Yanik, Ella Pallagi+0.2
3822-16CSUBAKSDSUKillChelsea Cocksset Kendall Mairs+0.2
3923-16SDSUSDSUServe errSan Diego St.+0.1
4023-17SDSUCSUBAKKillSuelen Limaset Luiza Da Cruz·
4124-17CSUBAKSDSUServe errCSU Bakersfield·
4224-18SDSUCSUBAKKillDefne Yanikset Luiza Da Cruz·
4324-19CSUBAKCSUBAKBlockedLayla Austinblk Jordyn Waite-Ward, Anna Bacchin·
4425-19CSUBAKSDSUKillElla Schabortset Kendall Mairs+0.1

Score shown after each rally, San Diego St. first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).