Final · 4 setsSat, Oct 10, 2026Watch on ESPN+

Northwestern St. def. A&M-Corpus Christi 3–1

RallyIQ pre-match: A&M-Corpus Christi 78.2% · upsetLocked before first serve (Oct 10, 12:56 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Northwestern St. beat visiting A&M-Corpus Christi 3-1 (12-25, 25-21, 25-22, 25-13) on Sat, Oct 10, 2026. Elsie Sanchez led Northwestern St. with 14 kills; A&M-Corpus Christi's Kenna Buchanan had a match-high 15.

Data through · final Oct 10

Set1234Sets
TAMUCC252122131
NW ST122525253

Match story · written from the play-by-play

.379 on 29 swings: Elsie Sanchez and Northwestern St. edged A&M-Corpus Christi.

The match turned 3 times. Numbers are Northwestern St.'s win probability from the RallyIQ model, rally by rally. RallyIQ had A&M-Corpus Christi at 78% before first serve.

  1. Turning point 1: Set 2 · A&M-Corpus Christi 20–17 Northwestern St.

    From here Northwestern St. won 8 of 9 rallies to take the set 25–21.

    Northwestern St. 7% → 27%

  2. Turning point 2: Set 3 · A&M-Corpus Christi 21–22 Northwestern St.

    Northwestern St. won 3 of the last 4 rallies to take the set 25–22 and lead 2–1. The match swung to Northwestern St.

    Northwestern St. 39% → 58%

  3. Turning point 3: Set 4 · A&M-Corpus Christi 4–4 Northwestern St.

    Northwestern St. scored 8 straight to go from 4–4 to a 12–4 lead.

    Northwestern St. 59% → 93%

Northwestern St. above 50A&M-Corpus Christi belowMax swing 9.0%

A&M-Corpus ChristiNorthwestern St.

Sideout %
A&M-Corpus Christi 53.5·Northwestern St. 57.3
Break %
A&M-Corpus Christi 42.7·Northwestern St. 46.5
Hitting
A&M-Corpus Christi .246·Northwestern St. .318
Longest run
A&M-Corpus Christi 8·Northwestern St. 8

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Northwestern St. above 50 · A&M-Corpus Christi below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100+9.0% NW STrally 168 · set 4

Biggest swing: 9.0% to Northwestern St. — set 3, TAMUCC 21-23 NW ST. Bad set by Virginia Van Der Werff. NW ST win probability 39% → 48%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

TAMUCC 74.3%25.7% NW ST

A&M-Corpus Christi wins

3-0
26.5%
3-1
28.4%
3-2
19.4%

Northwestern St. wins

3-0
4.6%
3-1
8.8%
3-2
12.3%
TAMUCC break %
44.8% vs this opp
NW ST break %
39.9% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01

    Bad set by Virginia Van Der Werff

    Set 3 · TAMUCC 21-23 NW ST · NW ST 39% → 48%

  2. 02
    Elsie SanchezKill+7.9%

    Kill by Elsie Sanchez (set by Jade Longlad)

    Set 3 · TAMUCC 22-24 NW ST · NW ST 44% → 52%

  3. 03

    Kill by Kenadii Winfrey (set by Hadley Burger)

    Set 3 · TAMUCC 22-25 NW ST · NW ST 52% → 58%

  4. 04

    Madison Morrow stuffed by Olivia Nzioki & Elsie Sanchez

    Set 3 · TAMUCC 21-22 NW ST · NW ST 33% → 39%

  5. 05
    Amber CraigKill+6.1%

    Kill by Amber Craig (set by Kenadii Winfrey)

    Set 3 · TAMUCC 18-19 NW ST · NW ST 30% → 36%

  6. 06
    A&M-Corpus ChristiService error+5.5%

    A&M-Corpus Christi service error

    Set 3 · TAMUCC 20-21 NW ST · NW ST 32% → 38%

  7. 07
    Olivia NziokiBlock+5.2%

    Virginia Van Der Werff stuffed by Olivia Nzioki

    Set 3 · TAMUCC 18-18 NW ST · NW ST 25% → 30%

  8. 08

    Kill by Kenna Buchanan (set by Virginia Van Der Werff)

    Set 3 · TAMUCC 21-21 NW ST · TAMUCC 62% → 67%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
415229.4480005100015
46212.33315110010.511.5
410129.3101002000010
46416.125170040031.57.5
43110.200201200214
4013-.333210500001
43211.091000100003
4014-.250920500002
4001.0004011500000
3114.000000000001
3000–000200000
1317.286000100003
Team totals4716126.246368343506381
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
414329.3792010012216
411625.20000120132.513.5
410217.47110231010.510.5
45112.3334132900008
4002.000012610001
1126-.167000210001
49120.4000002002110
4213.3331011030002
4002.000000510000
35012.417101810005
3001.000000100000
Team totals5716129.3184641048828687

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

A&M-Corpus Christi vs Northwestern St.

Season series · Northwestern St. leads 1-0

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 8 TAMUCC · NW ST 8

Set 1

25-12

Longest run 8 TAMUCCNW ST 4

Set 2

21-25

Longest run 4 TAMUCCNW ST 4

Set 3

22-25

Longest run 3 TAMUCCNW ST 5

Set 4

13-25

Longest run 2 TAMUCCNW ST 8

Bars above the line = Northwestern St. leads, below = A&M-Corpus Christi leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

A&M-Corpus Christi

SlotSideout %Break %
1
64%9/14
13%1/8
2
75%9/12
61%14/23
3
60%9/15
47%8/17
4
44%7/16
20%2/10
5
44%7/16
42%5/12
6
38%5/13
42%5/12
All
53%46/86
43%35/82

Northwestern St.

SlotSideout %Break %
1
43%9/21
59%10/17
2
56%9/16
10%1/10
3
67%8/12
47%8/17
4
70%7/10
22%2/9
5
58%7/12
59%10/17
6
64%7/11
56%9/16
All
57%47/82
47%40/86

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

168 rallies

#TAMUCC-NW STSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
11-0NW STTAMUCC×4KillSydney Yoheset Virginia Van Der Werff+1.3
22-0TAMUCCTAMUCC×4BlockedGillian Grace Wolfblk Virginia Van Der Werff, Erin Herrmann+1.6
33-0TAMUCCTAMUCC×4AceA&M-Corpus Christiaced Gillian Grace Wolf+1.5
44-0TAMUCCTAMUCC×4AceA&M-Corpus Christiaced Emmarie McFarland+1.3
54-1TAMUCCNW STKillOlivia Nziokiset Jade Longlad+0.9
65-1NW STTAMUCCAttack errElsie Sanchez+0.9
75-2TAMUCCNW STKillOlivia Nziokiset Jade Longlad+0.9
86-2NW STTAMUCCKillHadley Burgerset Brooklyn Jaeger+1.0
96-3TAMUCCNW STKillKenadii Winfreyset Jade Longlad+0.9
107-3NW STTAMUCCKillErin Herrmannset Ava Hight+1.0
118-3TAMUCCTAMUCCKillHadley Burgerset Ava Hight+1.1
128-4TAMUCCNW STKillElsie Sanchezset Jade Longlad+0.7
138-5NW STNW STBlockedTatum Masonblk Olivia Nzioki, Amber Craig+1.3
149-5NW STTAMUCCServe errNorthwestern St.+1.0
159-6TAMUCCNW STKillGillian Grace Wolfset Jade Longlad+1.0
1610-6NW STTAMUCCKillTatum Masonset Virginia Van Der Werff+1.0
1711-6TAMUCCTAMUCCKillKenna Buchananset Jade Longlad+1.2
1811-7TAMUCCNW STKillOlivia Nziokiset Jade Longlad+0.8
1912-7NW STTAMUCC×8KillVirginia Van Der Werff+0.9
2013-7TAMUCCTAMUCC×8KillKenna Buchananset Erin Herrmann+0.9
2114-7TAMUCCTAMUCC×8AceA&M-Corpus Christiaced Anna Claire Hebert+0.6
2215-7TAMUCCTAMUCC×8AceA&M-Corpus Christiaced Emmarie McFarland+0.4
2316-7TAMUCCTAMUCC×8Attack errOlivia Nzioki+0.3
2417-7TAMUCCTAMUCC×8Attack errGillian Grace Wolf+0.1
2518-7TAMUCCTAMUCC×8KillVirginia Van Der Werffset Jade Longlad+0.1
2619-7TAMUCCTAMUCC×8KillKenna Buchananset Virginia Van Der Werff·
2719-8TAMUCCNW STKillOlivia Nzioki·
2820-8NW STTAMUCC×4KillVirginia Van Der Werffset Harper Cauley·
2921-8TAMUCCTAMUCC×4Attack errJade Longlad·
3022-8TAMUCCTAMUCC×4KillKenna Buchananset Erin Herrmann·
3123-8TAMUCCTAMUCC×4AceA&M-Corpus Christiaced Emmarie McFarland·
3223-9TAMUCCNW ST×4KillJade Longladset Elsie Sanchez·
3323-10NW STNW ST×4KillElsie Sanchezset Jade Longlad·
3423-11NW STNW ST×4KillEmmarie McFarlandset Elsie Sanchez·
3523-12NW STNW ST×4KillKenadii Winfreyset Jade Longlad·
3624-12NW STTAMUCCKillKenna Buchananset Brooklyn Jaeger·
3725-12TAMUCCTAMUCCAttack errKenadii Winfrey·
Set 2
10-1TAMUCCNW STKillOlivia Nziokiset Jade Longlad+1.1
20-2NW STNW STAttack errKenna Buchanan+1.6
31-2NW STTAMUCCKillKenna Buchananset Brooklyn Jaeger+1.1
41-3TAMUCCNW STKillOlivia Nziokiset Jade Longlad+1.2
52-3NW STTAMUCCServe errNorthwestern St.+1.1
63-3TAMUCCTAMUCCAttack errOlivia Nzioki+1.5
73-4TAMUCCNW STKillOlivia Nziokiset Jade Longlad+1.2
84-4NW STTAMUCCServe errNorthwestern St.+1.1
94-5TAMUCCNW STKillKenadii Winfreyset Jade Longlad+1.2
105-5NW STTAMUCCKillHadley Burgerset Ava Hight+1.1
115-6TAMUCCNW ST×3Serve errA&M-Corpus Christi+1.3
125-7NW STNW ST×3KillElizabeth Muguruza+1.8
135-8NW STNW ST×3KillKenadii Winfrey+1.9
146-8NW STTAMUCC×4KillTatum Masonset Virginia Van Der Werff+1.2
157-8TAMUCCTAMUCC×4AceA&M-Corpus Christiaced Kenadii Winfrey+1.7
168-8TAMUCCTAMUCC×4Attack errAmber Craig+1.8
179-8TAMUCCTAMUCC×4KillVirginia Van Der Werff+1.7
189-9TAMUCCNW STKillKenadii Winfreyset Jade Longlad+1.3
199-10NW STNW STAttack errSydney Yohe+1.9
2010-10NW STTAMUCCServe errNorthwestern St.+1.3
2110-11TAMUCCNW STKillOlivia Nziokiset Jade Longlad+1.5
2211-11NW STTAMUCCKillKenna Buchananset Virginia Van Der Werff+1.4
2312-11TAMUCCTAMUCCKillHadley Burgerset Madison Morrow+1.9
2412-12TAMUCCNW ST×3KillEmmarie McFarlandset Elizabeth Muguruza+1.4
2512-13NW STNW ST×3KillElsie Sanchezset Emmarie McFarland+2.2
2612-14NW STNW ST×3KillElsie Sanchezset Jade Longlad+2.3
2713-14NW STTAMUCCKillErin Herrmannset Ava Hight+1.5
2814-14TAMUCCTAMUCCAttack errOlivia Nzioki+2.2
2914-15TAMUCCNW STKillElsie Sanchezset Jade Longlad+1.8
3014-16NW STNW STKillElsie Sanchezset Jade Longlad+2.6
3115-16NW STTAMUCCKillTatum Masonset Elsie Sanchez+1.6
3216-16TAMUCCTAMUCCKillHadley Burgerset Brooklyn Jaeger+2.4
3316-17TAMUCCNW STKillJade Longladset Tatum Mason+2.0
3417-17NW STTAMUCC×4Serve errNorthwestern St.+1.9
3518-17TAMUCCTAMUCC×4BlockedElsie Sanchezblk Virginia Van Der Werff, Sydney Yohe+2.6
3619-17TAMUCCTAMUCC×4KillVirginia Van Der Werffset Jade Longlad+2.4
3720-17TAMUCCTAMUCC×4KillVirginia Van Der Werffset Jade Longlad+1.9
3820-18TAMUCCNW ST×4BlockedAva Hightblk Elsie Sanchez+1.1
3920-19NW STNW ST×4Attack errTatum Mason+2.3
4020-20NW STNW ST×4Attack errVirginia Van Der Werff+3.1
4120-21NW STNW ST×4KillKenadii Winfreyset Jade Longlad+3.8
4221-21NW STTAMUCCKillSydney Yoheset Virginia Van Der Werff+2.6
4321-22TAMUCCNW ST×4KillAmber Craigset Jade Longlad+3.2
4421-23NW STNW ST×4Attack errVirginia Van Der Werff+4.6
4521-24NW STNW ST×4BlockedKenna Buchananblk Olivia Nzioki, Amber Craig+3.6
4621-25NW STNW ST×4Bad setVirginia Van Der Werff+1.5
Set 3
11-0NW STTAMUCC×3KillKenna Buchananset Virginia Van Der Werff+1.9
22-0TAMUCCTAMUCC×3AceA&M-Corpus Christiaced Valerie Brown+2.5
33-0TAMUCCTAMUCC×3Attack errOlivia Nzioki+2.2
43-1TAMUCCNW STBad setVirginia Van Der Werff+1.6
54-1NW STTAMUCC×3KillKenna Buchananset Virginia Van Der Werff+1.6
65-1TAMUCCTAMUCC×3AceA&M-Corpus Christiaced Elizabeth Muguruza+2.0
76-1TAMUCCTAMUCC×3Attack errOlivia Nzioki+1.7
86-2TAMUCCNW STKillElsie Sanchezset Jade Longlad+1.1
96-3NW STNW STAttack errErin Herrmann+1.9
107-3NW STTAMUCCKillKenna Buchananset Ava Hight+1.5
117-4TAMUCCNW STKillJade Longlad+1.4
128-4NW STTAMUCCKillHadley Burgerset Ava Hight+1.5
139-4TAMUCCTAMUCCKillHadley Burgerset Ava Hight+1.7
149-5TAMUCCNW STKillKenadii Winfreyset Jade Longlad+1.1
159-6NW STNW STKillAmber Craigset Emmarie McFarland+1.9
1610-6NW STTAMUCCKillHadley Burgerset Ava Hight+1.6
1710-7TAMUCCNW STKillAmber Craigset Jade Longlad+1.5
1811-7NW STTAMUCCKillSydney Yoheset Virginia Van Der Werff+1.6
1911-8TAMUCCNW ST×5KillAmber Craigset Jade Longlad+1.5
2011-9NW STNW ST×5KillJade Longlad+2.5
2111-10NW STNW ST×5Bad setVirginia Van Der Werff+3.1
2211-11NW STNW ST×5KillOlivia Nziokiset Jade Longlad+3.7
2311-12NW STNW ST×5AceNorthwestern St.+4.1
2412-12NW STTAMUCCServe errNorthwestern St.+2.9
2512-13TAMUCCNW STKillJade Longladset Jade Longlad+3.2
2613-13NW STTAMUCCBlockedElsie Sanchezblk Erin Herrmann, Virginia Van Der Werff+3.0
2713-14TAMUCCNW STKillOlivia Nziokiset Jade Longlad+3.3
2814-14NW STTAMUCCKillErin Herrmannset Ava Hight+3.1
2914-15TAMUCCNW STKillElsie Sanchezset Jade Longlad+3.5
3015-15NW STTAMUCCKillAlly Salehset Ava Hight+3.3
3115-16TAMUCCNW STKillKenadii Winfreyset Jade Longlad+3.7
3216-16NW STTAMUCC×3KillHadley Burgerset Ava Hight+3.5
3317-16TAMUCCTAMUCC×3KillSydney Yoheset Virginia Van Der Werff+4.8
3418-16TAMUCCTAMUCC×3Attack errKenadii Winfrey+4.4
3518-17TAMUCCNW ST×3KillAmber Craigset Jade Longlad+3.0
3618-18NW STNW ST×3BlockedVirginia Van Der Werffblk Olivia Nzioki+5.2
3718-19NW STNW ST×3KillAmber Craigset Kenadii Winfrey+6.1
3819-19NW STTAMUCCServe errNorthwestern St.+4.2
3919-20TAMUCCNW STKillAmber Craigset Jade Longlad+5.0
4020-20NW STTAMUCCKillSydney Yoheset Virginia Van Der Werff+4.6
4120-21TAMUCCNW STServe errA&M-Corpus Christi+5.5
4221-21NW STTAMUCCKillKenna Buchananset Virginia Van Der Werff+5.1
4321-22TAMUCCNW STBlockedMadison Morrowblk Olivia Nzioki, Elsie Sanchez+6.3
4421-23NW STNW STBad setVirginia Van Der Werff+9.0
4522-23NW STTAMUCCKillKenna Buchananset Virginia Van Der Werff+4.5
4622-24TAMUCCNW STKillElsie Sanchezset Jade Longlad+7.9
4722-25NW STNW STKillKenadii Winfreyset Hadley Burger+6.6
Set 4
10-1TAMUCCNW STKillElizabeth Muguruzaset Jade Longlad+3.0
21-1NW STTAMUCCKillSydney Yoheset Virginia Van Der Werff+2.8
31-2TAMUCCNW STKillOlivia Nziokiset Jade Longlad+3.1
41-3NW STNW STKillElsie Sanchezset Jade Longlad+4.5
52-3NW STTAMUCCKillKenna Buchananset Virginia Van Der Werff+3.0
63-3TAMUCCTAMUCCAttack errEmmarie McFarland+4.1
73-4TAMUCCNW STKillElsie Sanchezset Jade Longlad+3.3
84-4NW STTAMUCCKillKenna Buchananset Hadley Burger+3.0
94-5TAMUCCNW ST×8KillElizabeth Muguruzaset Jade Longlad+3.4
104-6NW STNW ST×8KillElsie Sanchezset Jade Longlad+4.8
114-7NW STNW ST×8AceNorthwestern St.aced Kenna Buchanan+5.0
124-8NW STNW ST×8Attack errHadley Burger+5.0
134-9NW STNW ST×8Attack errHadley Burger+4.8
144-10NW STNW ST×8BlockedVirginia Van Der Werffblk Elsie Sanchez, Kenadii Winfrey+4.3
154-11NW STNW ST×8AceNorthwestern St.+3.8
164-12NW STNW ST×8Attack errAlly Saleh+3.1
175-12NW STTAMUCCKillAbigail Huddlestonset Sydney Yohe+1.6
185-13TAMUCCNW STKillAmber Craigset Jade Longlad+2.2
195-14NW STNW STBad setMadison Morrow+2.3
206-14NW STTAMUCCKillHadley Burgerset Virginia Van Der Werff+1.0
216-15TAMUCCNW STKillKenadii Winfreyset Jade Longlad+1.6
227-15NW STTAMUCCKillAbigail Huddlestonset Virginia Van Der Werff+0.9
237-16TAMUCCNW STKillAmber Craigset Jade Longlad+1.5
248-16NW STTAMUCCServe errNorthwestern St.+0.8
259-16TAMUCCTAMUCCAttack errOlivia Nzioki+1.6
269-17TAMUCCNW STServe errA&M-Corpus Christi+1.9
2710-17NW STTAMUCCKillKenna Buchananset Virginia Van Der Werff+1.1
2810-18TAMUCCNW STKillElsie Sanchezset Jade Longlad+1.7
2911-18NW STTAMUCCServe errNorthwestern St.+0.9
3011-19TAMUCCNW STKillElsie Sanchezset Jade Longlad+1.5
3111-20NW STNW STAceNorthwestern St.+1.2
3212-20NW STTAMUCCServe errNorthwestern St.+0.4
3312-21TAMUCCNW STServe errA&M-Corpus Christi+0.7
3412-22NW STNW STKillElizabeth Muguruzaset Jade Longlad+0.4
3513-22NW STTAMUCCKillAbigail Huddlestonset Madison Morrow+0.1
3613-23TAMUCCNW ST×3KillElizabeth Muguruzaset Jade Longlad+0.2
3713-24NW STNW ST×3Attack errSydney Yohe+0.1
3813-25NW STNW ST×3Attack errAbigail Huddleston·

Score shown after each rally, A&M-Corpus Christi first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).