FinalSat, Sep 5, 2026

AwaySOUTHLAND

0:3

HomeUAC-

Little Rock def. Northwestern St. 3–0

(25-8, 25-18, 25-11)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
NW ST	8	18	11	0
UALR	25	25	25	3

RallyIQ model

Win probability

UALR above 50 · NW ST below

Biggest swing: 0.5% to Northwestern St. — set 2, NW ST 9-8 UALR. Avery Fearnley stuffed by Olivia Nzioki & Camila Torquati. UALR win probability 98% → 98%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

NW ST 3.5%96.5% UALR

Northwestern St. wins

3-0

0.4%

3-1

1.0%

3-2

2.2%

Little Rock wins

3-0

60.2%

3-1

28.1%

3-2

8.2%

NW ST break %: 36.8% vs this opp
UALR break %: 50.7% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Avery FearnleyAttack error+0.5%
Avery Fearnley stuffed by Olivia Nzioki & Camila Torquati
Set 2 · NW ST 9-8 UALR · NW ST 2% → 2%
02
Lovina TeelKill+0.5%
Kill by Lovina Teel (set by Avery Fearnley)
Set 2 · NW ST 12-13 UALR · UALR 98% → 98%
03
UALR serverService error+0.4%
Little Rock service error
Set 2 · NW ST 12-11 UALR · NW ST 2% → 3%
04
Lovina TeelKill+0.4%
Kill by Lovina Teel (set by Lily King)
Set 1 · NW ST 1-2 UALR · UALR 96% → 97%
05
Gillian WolfKill+0.4%
Kill by Gillian Wolf (set by Camila Torquati)
Set 2 · NW ST 11-10 UALR · NW ST 2% → 3%
06
Ana GjorgjievskaKill+0.4%
Kill by Ana Gjorgjievska (set by Emmarie McFarland)
Set 1 · NW ST 1-0 UALR · NW ST 4% → 4%
07
Julia WhitfieldAttack error+0.4%
Julia Whitfield stuffed by Lovina Teel
Set 2 · NW ST 13-15 UALR · UALR 98% → 99%
08
NW ST serverAce+0.4%
Northwestern St. ace on Avery Fearnley
Set 2 · NW ST 6-5 UALR · NW ST 2% → 2%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Northwestern St.away

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
5Gillian WolfOH	3	6	2	19	.211	0	0	1	2	2	0	0	0	6
4Kenadii WinfreyMB	3	4	5	15	-.067	0	1	1	1	0	0	1	0.5	5.5
14Ana GjorgjievskaOH	3	4	5	22	-.045	0	0	0	2	3	1	0	1	5
22Olivia NziokiMB	3	1	1	6	.000	0	0	0	1	0	1	2	2	3
6Amber CraigOH	1	2	1	4	.250	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2
11Jade LongladS	1	0	0	1	.000	4	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	0
7Harper CauleyL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	1	2	2	3	1	0	0	0	2
16Anna Claire HebertS	3	1	0	2	.500	3	0	0	4	0	0	0	0	1
2Emmarie McFarlandL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	3	1	1	10	1	0	0	0	1
12Valerie BrownL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
18Camila TorquatiS	2	0	0	1	.000	6	0	0	1	0	0	3	1.5	1.5
1Julia WhitfieldMB	2	1	3	7	-.286	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team totals		19	17	77	.026	18	4	5	28	9	2	6	5	37

Little Rockhome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
7Lovina TeelOH	3	7	1	17	.353	0	0	0	3	1	1	2	2	9
14Avery FearnleyOH	3	7	4	17	.176	1	1	2	6	2	0	0	0	8
12Alyssa BoyteMB	3	6	1	10	.500	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	7
17Lorena KeseljMB	3	3	0	5	.600	2	1	1	2	0	1	1	1.5	5.5
5Lily KingS	3	1	0	1	1.000	17	0	1	3	0	0	0	0	1
13Morgan CreerOH	2	4	0	6	.667	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	5
8Bella CherryOH	3	10	0	17	.588	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.5	10.5
6Victoria FontenotL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	4	2	7	0	0	0	0	4
2Skyler PerezL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	3	3	0	7	0	0	0	0	3
4Alayna VaethS	3	0	0	0	–	14	0	2	6	0	0	0	0	0
10Polianna HernandezOH	2	5	0	6	.833	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	5
1Miranda BledsoeL/DS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		43	6	79	.468	39	9	8	36	4	3	6	6	75

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 4 NW ST · UALR 8

Set 1

8-25

Longest run 3 NW STUALR 7

Set 2

18-25

Longest run 3 NW STUALR 5

Set 3

11-25

Longest run 4 NW STUALR 8

Bars above the line = Little Rock leads, below = Northwestern St. leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Northwestern St.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	38%5/13	38%3/8
2	24%4/17	17%1/6
3	29%4/14	0%0/4
4	33%4/12	33%2/6
5	57%4/7	33%2/6
6	36%4/11	50%4/8
All	34%25/74	32%12/38

Little Rock

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	86%6/7	62%8/13
2	80%4/5	76%13/17
3	80%4/5	67%8/12
4	80%4/5	56%5/9
5	44%4/9	69%9/13
6	57%4/7	60%6/10
All	68%26/38	66%49/74

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

112 rallies

Rally log

#	NW ST-UALR	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	UALR	NW ST	Kill	Ana Gjorgjievska	set Emmarie McFarland	+0.4
2	1-1	NW ST	UALR×5	Kill	Avery Fearnley	set Lily King	+0.4
3	1-2	UALR	UALR×5	Kill	Lovina Teel	set Lily King	+0.4
4	1-3	UALR	UALR×5	Ace	UALR server	aced Ana Gjorgjievska	+0.4
5	1-4	UALR	UALR×5	Kill	Morgan Creer	set Lily King	+0.3
6	1-5	UALR	UALR×5	Attack err	Ana Gjorgjievska		+0.2
7	2-5	UALR	NW ST	Kill	Ana Gjorgjievska	set Jade Longlad	+0.2
8	2-6	NW ST	UALR×6	Kill	Lovina Teel	set Morgan Creer	+0.2
9	2-7	UALR	UALR×6	Attack err	Olivia Nzioki	blk Lovina Teel, Alyssa Boyte	+0.2
10	2-8	UALR	UALR×6	Kill	Alyssa Boyte		+0.1
11	2-9	UALR	UALR×6	Attack err	Gillian Wolf	blk Morgan Creer	+0.1
12	2-10	UALR	UALR×6	Kill	Morgan Creer	set Lorena Keselj	+0.1
13	2-11	UALR	UALR×6	Kill	Lovina Teel	set Anna Claire Hebert	+0.0
14	3-11	UALR	NW ST	Kill	Gillian Wolf	set Jade Longlad	+0.0
15	3-12	NW ST	UALR×3	Serve err	NW ST server		+0.0
16	3-13	UALR	UALR×3	Kill	Bella Cherry	set Skyler Perez	+0.0
17	3-14	UALR	UALR×3	Kill	Bella Cherry	set Alayna Vaeth	+0.0
18	4-14	UALR	NW ST	Kill	Kenadii Winfrey	set Jade Longlad	+0.0
19	4-15	NW ST	UALR×3	Attack err	Amber Craig	blk Bella Cherry, Alyssa Boyte	+0.0
20	4-16	UALR	UALR×3	Kill	Avery Fearnley	set Alayna Vaeth	+0.0
21	4-17	UALR	UALR×3	Kill	Alyssa Boyte	set Alayna Vaeth	+0.0
22	5-17	UALR	NW ST	Kill	Amber Craig	set Jade Longlad	+0.0
23	5-18	NW ST	UALR×7	Kill	Avery Fearnley	set Alayna Vaeth	+0.0
24	5-19	UALR	UALR×7	Ace	UALR server	aced Team	+0.0
25	5-20	UALR	UALR×7	Kill	Bella Cherry	set Alayna Vaeth	+0.0
26	5-21	UALR	UALR×7	Ace	UALR server	aced Ana Gjorgjievska	+0.0
27	5-22	UALR	UALR×7	Ace	UALR server	aced Team	+0.0
28	5-23	UALR	UALR×7	Kill	Bella Cherry	set Alayna Vaeth	+0.0
29	5-24	UALR	UALR×7	Kill	Bella Cherry	set Lorena Keselj	+0.0
30	6-24	UALR	NW ST×3	Attack err	Avery Fearnley	blk Ana Gjorgjievska	+0.0
31	7-24	NW ST	NW ST×3	Ace	NW ST server	aced Avery Fearnley	+0.0
32	8-24	NW ST	NW ST×3	Kill	Amber Craig	set Harper Cauley	+0.0
33	8-25	NW ST	UALR	Serve err	NW ST server		+0.0
Set 2
1	1-0	NW ST	NW ST	Kill	Kenadii Winfrey		+0.3
2	1-1	NW ST	UALR	Kill	Avery Fearnley	set Lily King	+0.2
3	1-2	UALR	UALR	Attack err	Ana Gjorgjievska		+0.3
4	2-2	UALR	NW ST	Serve err	UALR server		+0.2
5	3-2	NW ST	NW ST	Kill	Julia Whitfield	set Emmarie McFarland	+0.4
6	3-3	NW ST	UALR	Kill	Morgan Creer	set Lily King	+0.3
7	4-3	UALR	NW ST	Kill	Kenadii Winfrey	set Anna Claire Hebert	+0.3
8	4-4	NW ST	UALR	Kill	Alyssa Boyte	set Lily King	+0.3
9	4-5	UALR	UALR	Attack err	Ana Gjorgjievska		+0.3
10	5-5	UALR	NW ST	Serve err	UALR server		+0.3
11	6-5	NW ST	NW ST	Ace	NW ST server	aced Avery Fearnley	+0.4
12	6-6	NW ST	UALR×3	Kill	Bella Cherry	set Alayna Vaeth	+0.3
13	6-7	UALR	UALR×3	Ace	UALR server	aced Harper Cauley	+0.3
14	6-8	UALR	UALR×3	Kill	Avery Fearnley	set Alyssa Boyte	+0.3
15	7-8	UALR	NW ST×3	Kill	Ana Gjorgjievska	set Camila Torquati	+0.2
16	8-8	NW ST	NW ST×3	Attack err	Alyssa Boyte	blk Olivia Nzioki	+0.4
17	9-8	NW ST	NW ST×3	Attack err	Avery Fearnley	blk Olivia Nzioki, Camila Torquati	+0.5
18	9-9	NW ST	UALR	Kill	Bella Cherry	set Alayna Vaeth	+0.3
19	10-9	UALR	NW ST	Kill	Gillian Wolf	set Camila Torquati	+0.4
20	10-10	NW ST	UALR	Kill	Lorena Keselj	set Alayna Vaeth	+0.3
21	11-10	UALR	NW ST	Kill	Gillian Wolf	set Camila Torquati	+0.4
22	11-11	NW ST	UALR	Kill	Lily King	set Skyler Perez	+0.4
23	12-11	UALR	NW ST	Serve err	UALR server		+0.4
24	12-12	NW ST	UALR	Kill	Lovina Teel	set Lily King	+0.4
25	12-13	UALR	UALR	Kill	Lovina Teel	set Avery Fearnley	+0.5
26	13-13	UALR	NW ST	Kill	Ana Gjorgjievska	set Anna Claire Hebert	+0.4
27	13-14	NW ST	UALR×3	Kill	Morgan Creer	set Lily King	+0.4
28	13-15	UALR	UALR×3	Attack err	Julia Whitfield	blk Lovina Teel	+0.4
29	13-16	UALR	UALR×3	Attack err	Julia Whitfield		+0.3
30	14-16	UALR	NW ST	Serve err	UALR server		+0.3
31	14-17	NW ST	UALR×5	Serve err	NW ST server		+0.3
32	14-18	UALR	UALR×5	Bad set	Camila Torquati		+0.3
33	14-19	UALR	UALR×5	Ace	UALR server	aced Gillian Wolf	+0.2
34	14-20	UALR	UALR×5	Ace	UALR server	aced Gillian Wolf	+0.1
35	14-21	UALR	UALR×5	Ace	UALR server	aced Emmarie McFarland	+0.0
36	15-21	UALR	NW ST	Serve err	UALR server		+0.0
37	15-22	NW ST	UALR	Kill	Alyssa Boyte	set Alayna Vaeth	+0.0
38	16-22	UALR	NW ST	Attack err	Avery Fearnley	blk Olivia Nzioki, Camila Torquati	+0.0
39	17-22	NW ST	NW ST	Kill	Gillian Wolf	set Emmarie McFarland	+0.0
40	17-23	NW ST	UALR	Kill	Bella Cherry	set Alayna Vaeth	+0.0
41	17-24	UALR	UALR	Attack err	Gillian Wolf		+0.0
42	18-24	UALR	NW ST	Serve err	UALR server		+0.0
43	18-25	NW ST	UALR	Kill	Polianna Hernandez	set Lily King	+0.0
Set 3
1	0-1	UALR	UALR×5	Attack err	Kenadii Winfrey		+0.1
2	0-2	UALR	UALR×5	Kill	Lorena Keselj	set Lily King	+0.1
3	0-3	UALR	UALR×5	Attack err	Kenadii Winfrey		+0.1
4	0-4	UALR	UALR×5	Kill	Avery Fearnley		+0.1
5	0-5	UALR	UALR×5	Kill	Polianna Hernandez	set Lily King	+0.0
6	1-5	UALR	NW ST	Kill	Anna Claire Hebert	set Julia Whitfield	+0.0
7	1-6	NW ST	UALR	Serve err	NW ST server		+0.0
8	1-7	UALR	UALR	Attack err	Kenadii Winfrey	blk Lorena Keselj	+0.0
9	2-7	UALR	NW ST	Attack err	Lovina Teel		+0.0
10	2-8	NW ST	UALR×3	Kill	Avery Fearnley	set Lily King	+0.0
11	2-9	UALR	UALR×3	Ace	UALR server	aced Ana Gjorgjievska	+0.0
12	2-10	UALR	UALR×3	Kill	Polianna Hernandez	set Lily King	+0.0
13	3-10	UALR	NW ST	Serve err	UALR server		+0.0
14	4-10	NW ST	NW ST	Ace	NW ST server	aced Lovina Teel	+0.0
15	4-11	NW ST	UALR	Serve err	NW ST server		+0.0
16	5-11	UALR	NW ST	Kill	Olivia Nzioki	set Camila Torquati	+0.0
17	5-12	NW ST	UALR	Kill	Alyssa Boyte	set Alayna Vaeth	+0.0
18	5-13	UALR	UALR	Kill	Alyssa Boyte	set Alayna Vaeth	+0.0
19	6-13	UALR	NW ST×4	Serve err	UALR server		+0.0
20	7-13	NW ST	NW ST×4	Kill	Gillian Wolf	set Camila Torquati	+0.0
21	8-13	NW ST	NW ST×4	Ace	NW ST server	aced Team	+0.0
22	9-13	NW ST	NW ST×4	Kill	Kenadii Winfrey	set Camila Torquati	+0.1
23	9-14	NW ST	UALR	Kill	Bella Cherry	set Alayna Vaeth	+0.0
24	10-14	UALR	NW ST	Attack err	Avery Fearnley	blk Kenadii Winfrey, Camila Torquati	+0.0
25	10-15	NW ST	UALR×3	Kill	Bella Cherry	set Skyler Perez	+0.1
26	10-16	UALR	UALR×3	Attack err	Kenadii Winfrey		+0.0
27	10-17	UALR	UALR×3	Attack err	Julia Whitfield		+0.0
28	11-17	UALR	NW ST	Kill	Gillian Wolf	set Anna Claire Hebert	+0.0
29	11-18	NW ST	UALR×8	Kill	Polianna Hernandez	set Lily King	+0.0
30	11-19	UALR	UALR×8	Kill	Lorena Keselj	set Lily King	+0.0
31	11-20	UALR	UALR×8	Kill	Polianna Hernandez	set Lily King	+0.0
32	11-21	UALR	UALR×8	Attack err	Ana Gjorgjievska		+0.0
33	11-22	UALR	UALR×8	Kill	Lovina Teel	set Lily King	+0.0
34	11-23	UALR	UALR×8	Attack err	Kenadii Winfrey	blk Lovina Teel, Lorena Keselj	+0.0
35	11-24	UALR	UALR×8	Kill	Lovina Teel	set Lily King	+0.0
36	11-25	UALR	UALR×8	Attack err	Ana Gjorgjievska		+0.0

Score shown after each rally, Northwestern St. first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.