Final · 5 setsThu, Oct 1, 2026Watch on ESPN+

Southeastern La. def. Northwestern St. 3–2

RallyIQ pre-match: Southeastern La. 79.2% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Oct 1, 6:25 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Southeastern La. won at Northwestern St. 3-2 (25-19, 21-25, 20-25, 25-18, 15-8) on Thu, Oct 1, 2026. Southeastern La.'s Kyra McKelvey led with 18 kills, and Abby Bailey added 12 digs.

Data through · final Oct 1

Set12345Sets
SE LA25212025153
NW ST1925251882

Match story · written from the play-by-play

Kyra McKelvey had 18 kills to lead Southeastern La. past Northwestern St. in a close one.

The match turned 3 times; each line shows Southeastern La.'s RallyIQ win probability at the start and end of the stretch. RallyIQ gave Southeastern La. 79% before first serve.

  1. Turning point 1: Set 3 · Southeastern La. 13–14 Northwestern St.

    5 straight Northwestern St. points stretched a 14–13 lead to 19–13. The match swung to Northwestern St.

    Southeastern La. 67% → 47%

  2. Turning point 2: Set 4 · Southeastern La. 1–1 Northwestern St.

    4 straight Northwestern St. points broke a 1–1 tie and made it 5–1.

    Southeastern La. 42% → 25%

  3. Turning point 3: Set 5 · Southeastern La. 2–1 Northwestern St.

    Up 2–1, Southeastern La. scored 4 straight to make it 6–1.

    Southeastern La. 73% → 94%

Northwestern St. above 50Southeastern La. belowMax swing 7.1%

Southeastern La.Northwestern St.

Sideout %
Southeastern La. 58.3·Northwestern St. 52.4
Break %
Southeastern La. 47.6·Northwestern St. 41.7
Hitting
Southeastern La. .308·Northwestern St. .211
Longest run
Southeastern La. 5·Northwestern St. 5

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Northwestern St. above 50 · Southeastern La. below
S1S2S3S4S510050100+7.1% SE LArally 201 · set 5

Biggest swing: 7.1% to Southeastern La. — set 5, SE LA 2-0 NW ST. Kill by Keira Beverly (set by Ashley Richardson). NW ST win probability 29% → 22%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

SE LA 86.3%13.7% NW ST

Southeastern La. wins

3-0
38.8%
3-1
31.5%
3-2
16.0%

Northwestern St. wins

3-0
2.0%
3-1
4.3%
3-2
7.4%
SE LA break %
46.8% vs this opp
NW ST break %
38.5% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Keira BeverlyKill+7.1%

    Kill by Keira Beverly (set by Ashley Richardson)

    Set 5 · SE LA 2-0 NW ST · SE LA 71% → 78%

  2. 02
    Jade LongladBad set+6.5%

    Bad set by Jade Longlad

    Set 5 · SE LA 4-1 NW ST · SE LA 78% → 84%

  3. 03
    Northwestern St.Service error+5.6%

    Northwestern St. service error

    Set 5 · SE LA 1-0 NW ST · SE LA 65% → 71%

  4. 04
    Keira BeverlyKill+5.3%

    Kill by Keira Beverly (set by Ashley Richardson)

    Set 5 · SE LA 3-1 NW ST · SE LA 73% → 78%

  5. 05
    Southeastern La.Ace+5.3%

    Southeastern La. ace

    Set 5 · SE LA 5-1 NW ST · SE LA 84% → 90%

  6. 06

    Kill by Elizabeth Muguruza (set by Jade Longlad)

    Set 5 · SE LA 2-1 NW ST · NW ST 22% → 27%

  7. 07
    Elsie SanchezKill+4.8%

    Kill by Elsie Sanchez (set by Jade Longlad)

    Set 3 · SE LA 13-16 NW ST · NW ST 37% → 42%

  8. 08

    Kyra McKelvey stuffed by Olivia Nzioki & Elsie Sanchez

    Set 4 · SE LA 1-5 NW ST · NW ST 70% → 75%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
518643.2791117004221
514226.46200000313.517.5
57324.167010123010.58.5
5418.3753722110010.56.5
43210.100100100214
3034-.750000010000
57115.4001201020009
4509.55611030031.57.5
41011.000401720001
3000–210800001
2305.600000000003
21011.000600100001
2000–001220000
1000–001100000
Team totals6318146.308538663143129106
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
518657.21114320010.522.5
515329.4140001000015
510322.31800020010.510.5
56314.214130600009
54625-.080001520004
52110.1004701500002
5000–043410004
5000–020820002
5001.0002121910001
5001.000000400000
2102.500000010001
Team totals5622161.21151141056802195

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 5 SE LA · NW ST 5

Set 1

25-19

Longest run 5 SE LANW ST 4

Set 2

21-25

Longest run 5 SE LANW ST 5

Set 3

20-25

Longest run 4 SE LANW ST 5

Set 4

25-18

Longest run 4 SE LANW ST 4

Set 5

15-8

Longest run 4 SE LANW ST 2

Bars above the line = Northwestern St. leads, below = Southeastern La. leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Southeastern La.

SlotSideout %Break %
1
65%11/17
50%9/18
2
56%10/18
33%5/15
3
50%9/18
63%15/24
4
82%9/11
53%10/19
5
53%9/17
31%4/13
6
53%8/15
44%7/16
All
58%56/96
48%50/105

Northwestern St.

SlotSideout %Break %
1
57%12/21
41%7/17
2
45%9/20
45%9/20
3
35%9/26
25%3/12
4
75%9/12
47%8/17
5
60%9/15
36%5/14
6
64%7/11
50%8/16
All
52%55/105
42%40/96

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (5 of 5 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

201 rallies

#SE LA-NW STSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
11-0SE LASE LABlockedGillian Grace Wolfblk Keira Beverly, Kyra McKelvey+1.7
21-1SE LANW STKillOlivia Nziokiset Jade Longlad+1.3
31-2NW STNW STAceNorthwestern St.aced Abby Bailey+1.9
42-2NW STSE LA×3Serve errNorthwestern St.+1.3
53-2SE LASE LA×3Attack errOlivia Nzioki+1.8
64-2SE LASE LA×3KillKyra McKelveyset Ashley Richardson+1.6
74-3SE LANW STServe errSoutheastern La.+1.2
85-3NW STSE LAKillKyra McKelveyset Audrey Vielguth+1.2
95-4SE LANW STKillOlivia Nziokiset Jade Longlad+1.3
106-4NW STSE LAKillKyra McKelveyset Audrey Vielguth+1.2
116-5SE LANW STKillElsie Sanchezset Jade Longlad+1.3
127-5NW STSE LAServe errNorthwestern St.+1.3
138-5SE LASE LAAceSoutheastern La.aced Gillian Grace Wolf+1.6
148-6SE LANW STKillAmber Craigset Jade Longlad+1.1
159-6NW STSE LAAttack errGillian Grace Wolf+1.2
169-7SE LANW ST×4KillKenadii Winfreyset Jade Longlad+1.2
179-8NW STNW ST×4Attack errGracie Mann+1.9
189-9NW STNW ST×4KillAmber Craigset Jade Longlad+2.2
199-10NW STNW ST×4AceNorthwestern St.aced Gracie Mann+2.5
2010-10NW STSE LAAttack errGillian Grace Wolf+1.7
2110-11SE LANW STKillAmber Craigset Jade Longlad+1.9
2211-11NW STSE LAKillKeira Beverlyset Ashley Richardson+1.8
2312-11SE LASE LAKillKeira Beverlyset Jade Longlad+2.4
2412-12SE LANW STKillGillian Grace Wolfset Jade Longlad+1.8
2513-12NW STSE LA×5KillAbby Baileyset Ashley Richardson+1.8
2614-12SE LASE LA×5Bad setJade Longlad+2.3
2715-12SE LASE LA×5KillAbby Baileyset Kyra McKelvey+2.0
2816-12SE LASE LA×5KillKyra McKelveyset Ashley Richardson+1.6
2917-12SE LASE LA×5KillAinsley Driskaset Ashley Richardson+1.2
3017-13SE LANW STServe errSoutheastern La.+0.7
3118-13NW STSE LAKillKyra McKelveyset Audrey Vielguth+0.8
3218-14SE LANW STKillElsie Sanchezset Jade Longlad+0.6
3319-14NW STSE LABlockedAmber Craigblk Ainsley Driska, Abby Bailey+0.8
3419-15SE LANW STKillElsie Sanchezset Jade Longlad+0.6
3519-16NW STNW STAceNorthwestern St.+1.3
3620-16NW STSE LA×3Serve errNorthwestern St.+1.2
3721-16SE LASE LA×3KillCarissa Youngset Brea Payne+1.1
3822-16SE LASE LA×3BlockedKenadii Winfreyblk Keira Beverly+0.6
3922-17SE LANW STKillAmber Craigset Jade Longlad+0.2
4023-17NW STSE LAKillCarissa Youngset Brea Payne+0.3
4124-17SE LASE LAKillKyra McKelveyset Audrey Vielguth+0.1
4224-18SE LANW STKillOlivia Nziokiset Jade Longlad·
4324-19NW STNW STAceNorthwestern St.+0.1
4425-19NW STSE LAKillKeira Beverlyset Ashley Richardson+0.1
Set 2
10-1NW STNW STAceNorthwestern St.+1.4
21-1NW STSE LAKillKeira Beverlyset Jade Longlad+1.0
31-2SE LANW ST×5KillGillian Grace Wolfset Jade Longlad+1.1
41-3NW STNW ST×5Attack errKyra McKelvey+1.6
51-4NW STNW ST×5AceNorthwestern St.aced Abby Bailey+1.7
61-5NW STNW ST×5AceNorthwestern St.aced Abby Bailey+1.7
71-6NW STNW ST×5Attack errKyra McKelvey+1.6
82-6NW STSE LAKillMelina Gonzalezset Ashley Richardson+1.0
92-7SE LANW STKillElsie Sanchezset Jade Longlad+1.2
102-8NW STNW STKillElsie Sanchezset Jade Longlad+1.5
113-8NW STSE LA×5Attack errKyra McKelvey+0.9
124-8SE LASE LA×5Attack errElsie Sanchez+1.4
135-8SE LASE LA×5BlockedElsie Sanchezblk Ainsley Driska, Kyra McKelvey+1.5
146-8SE LASE LA×5Attack errElsie Sanchez+1.6
157-8SE LASE LA×5Attack errElsie Sanchez+1.7
167-9SE LANW STKillElsie Sanchezset Jade Longlad+1.4
178-9NW STSE LAKillAbby Baileyset Ashley Richardson+1.3
188-10SE LANW STKillKenadii Winfreyset Jade Longlad+1.5
199-10NW STSE LAKillAshley Richardsonset Ainsley Driska+1.3
209-11SE LANW STKillKenadii Winfreyset Jade Longlad+1.5
2110-11NW STSE LAKillMelina Gonzalezset Ashley Richardson+1.3
2210-12SE LANW STKillOlivia Nziokiset Jade Longlad+1.6
2310-13NW STNW STAceNorthwestern St.aced Kaelyn Sharp+2.1
2411-13NW STSE LABlockedElsie Sanchezblk Keira Beverly+1.3
2512-13SE LASE LAKillMelina Gonzalezset Ashley Richardson+2.0
2612-14SE LANW STServe errSoutheastern La.+1.7
2713-14NW STSE LAServe errNorthwestern St.+1.5
2814-14SE LASE LAAceSoutheastern La.aced Gillian Grace Wolf+2.1
2914-15SE LANW STKillElsie Sanchezset Emmarie McFarland+1.7
3014-16NW STNW STAceNorthwestern St.aced Audrey Vielguth+2.5
3115-16NW STSE LAKillAbby Baileyset Ashley Richardson+1.6
3215-17SE LANW STKillKenadii Winfreyset Jade Longlad+2.0
3316-17NW STSE LAKillKyra McKelveyset Ashley Richardson+1.7
3416-18SE LANW ST×5KillElsie Sanchezset Jade Longlad+2.1
3516-19NW STNW ST×5AceNorthwestern St.aced Melina Gonzalez+2.7
3616-20NW STNW ST×5Attack errKyra McKelvey+2.4
3716-21NW STNW ST×5AceNorthwestern St.aced Audrey Vielguth+1.8
3816-22NW STNW ST×5AceNorthwestern St.aced Kaelyn Sharp+1.1
3917-22NW STSE LA×5Serve errNorthwestern St.+0.3
4018-22SE LASE LA×5KillAshley Richardsonset Gillian Grace Wolf+0.8
4119-22SE LASE LA×5Attack errGillian Grace Wolf+1.3
4220-22SE LASE LA×5KillKyra McKelveyset Ashley Richardson+2.1
4321-22SE LASE LA×5Attack errKenadii Winfrey+3.0
4421-23SE LANW ST×3KillAmber Craigset Jade Longlad+3.3
4521-24NW STNW ST×3KillOlivia Nziokiset Jade Longlad+3.5
4621-25NW STNW ST×3Attack errAinsley Driska+1.5
Set 3
11-0SE LASE LAAceSoutheastern La.aced Emmarie McFarland+2.6
21-1SE LANW STKillOlivia Nziokiset Jade Longlad+2.0
32-1NW STSE LAKillKeira Beverlyset Emmarie McFarland+1.9
42-2SE LANW STAttack errKeira Beverly+2.0
53-2NW STSE LAKillAudrey Vielguthset Ashley Richardson+1.9
63-3SE LANW ST×4KillKenadii Winfreyset Jade Longlad+2.1
73-4NW STNW ST×4Attack errAbby Bailey+3.1
83-5NW STNW ST×4KillElsie Sanchezset Jade Longlad+3.3
93-6NW STNW ST×4KillElsie Sanchezset Abby Bailey+3.5
104-6NW STSE LAKillKyra McKelveyset Ashley Richardson+2.2
114-7SE LANW STKillAmber Craigset Jade Longlad+2.6
125-7NW STSE LAServe errNorthwestern St.+2.3
135-8SE LANW ST×3KillAmber Craigset Jade Longlad+2.7
145-9NW STNW ST×3AceNorthwestern St.aced Melina Gonzalez+3.6
155-10NW STNW ST×3KillAmber Craigset Jade Longlad+3.5
166-10NW STSE LAKillAinsley Driskaset Brea Payne+2.0
176-11SE LANW STServe errSoutheastern La.+2.6
187-11NW STSE LAKillBrea Payne+2.0
198-11SE LASE LABlockedJade Longladblk Keira Beverly+3.2
208-12SE LANW STBad setAshley Richardson+2.9
219-12NW STSE LAKillKeira Beverlyset Melina Gonzalez+2.3
229-13SE LANW STKillElsie Sanchezset Jade Longlad+3.0
239-14NW STNW STAttack errKyra McKelvey+3.7
2410-14NW STSE LA×4Serve errNorthwestern St.+2.0
2511-14SE LASE LA×4AceSoutheastern La.aced Harper Cauley+3.3
2612-14SE LASE LA×4KillAshley Richardsonset Jade Longlad+3.8
2713-14SE LASE LA×4KillAbby Baileyset Ashley Richardson+4.1
2813-15SE LANW ST×5KillElsie Sanchezset Jade Longlad+3.5
2913-16NW STNW ST×5KillElsie Sanchezset Jade Longlad+4.8
3013-17NW STNW ST×5KillKenadii Winfrey+4.4
3113-18NW STNW ST×5Attack errAbby Bailey+3.7
3213-19NW STNW ST×5Attack errGracie Mann+2.9
3314-19NW STSE LAKillKyra McKelveyset Ashley Richardson+1.2
3414-20SE LANW STKillElsie Sanchezset Jade Longlad+2.0
3514-21NW STNW STAttack errGracie Mann+1.7
3615-21NW STSE LAKillAinsley Driskaset Brea Payne+0.6
3715-22SE LANW STAttack errAinsley Driska+1.0
3815-23NW STNW STKillGillian Grace Wolfset Kenadii Winfrey+0.6
3916-23NW STSE LAKillMelina Gonzalezset Brea Payne+0.1
4016-24SE LANW STKillAmber Craigset Jade Longlad+0.3
4117-24NW STSE LA×4KillCarissa Youngset Brea Payne·
4218-24SE LASE LA×4BlockedGillian Grace Wolfblk Gracie Brown, Kyra McKelvey+0.1
4319-24SE LASE LA×4AceSoutheastern La.aced Anna Claire Hebert+0.3
4420-24SE LASE LA×4KillMelina Gonzalezset Ashley Richardson+0.6
4520-25SE LANW STKillOlivia Nziokiset Jade Longlad+1.0
Set 4
10-1NW STNW STKillJade Longladset Ashley Richardson+4.1
21-1NW STSE LAKillKyra McKelveyset Ashley Richardson+2.8
31-2SE LANW ST×4Serve errSoutheastern La.+3.1
41-3NW STNW ST×4KillElsie Sanchezset Jade Longlad+4.5
51-4NW STNW ST×4Attack errKyra McKelvey+4.7
61-5NW STNW ST×4BlockedKyra McKelveyblk Olivia Nzioki, Elsie Sanchez+4.7
72-5NW STSE LA×3KillKeira Beverlyset Ashley Richardson+3.0
83-5SE LASE LA×3KillKeira Beverlyset Ashley Richardson+4.3
94-5SE LASE LA×3KillKeira Beverlyset Ashley Richardson+4.4
104-6SE LANW STKillOlivia Nzioki+3.6
115-6NW STSE LA×4Serve errNorthwestern St.+3.3
126-6SE LASE LA×4KillKyra McKelveyset Ashley Richardson+4.5
137-6SE LASE LA×4BlockedElsie Sanchezblk Gracie Brown, Kyra McKelvey+4.3
148-6SE LASE LA×4AceSoutheastern La.aced Harper Cauley+4.0
158-7SE LANW STAttack errAshley Richardson+2.9
168-8NW STNW STKillAmber Craigset Jade Longlad+4.6
179-8NW STSE LAAttack errKenadii Winfrey+3.3
1810-8SE LASE LAKillAbby Baileyset Ashley Richardson+4.3
1910-9SE LANW STKillAmber Craigset Emmarie McFarland+3.1
2011-9NW STSE LAKillGracie Brownset Ashley Richardson+3.2
2111-10SE LANW STKillAmber Craigset Jade Longlad+3.2
2212-10NW STSE LAKillGracie Brownset Ashley Richardson+3.3
2312-11SE LANW STKillAmber Craigset Jade Longlad+3.3
2413-11NW STSE LAAttack errOlivia Nzioki+3.4
2513-12SE LANW STAttack errKeira Beverly+3.4
2614-12NW STSE LAKillMelina Gonzalezset Ashley Richardson+3.6
2715-12SE LASE LAKillKeira Beverlyset Ashley Richardson+4.3
2815-13SE LANW STKillElsie Sanchezset Jade Longlad+2.9
2916-13NW STSE LA×4KillKyra McKelveyset Lindsey Wickersham+3.2
3017-13SE LASE LA×4KillKyra McKelveyset Gracie Brown+3.5
3118-13SE LASE LA×4KillGracie Brownset Lindsey Wickersham+2.6
3219-13SE LASE LA×4KillAbby Baileyset Ashley Richardson+1.7
3319-14SE LANW STKillJade Longladset Elsie Sanchez+0.8
3420-14NW STSE LAKillKyra McKelveyset Ashley Richardson+1.1
3521-14SE LASE LAAceSoutheastern La.aced Elizabeth Muguruza+0.8
3621-15SE LANW STAttack errAbby Bailey+0.3
3722-15NW STSE LAKillGracie Brownset Jade Longlad+0.5
3822-16SE LANW ST×3KillAmber Craigset Jade Longlad+0.2
3922-17NW STNW ST×3Attack errMelina Gonzalez+0.6
4022-18NW STNW ST×3AceNorthwestern St.+1.1
4123-18NW STSE LA×3Attack errAmber Craig+1.4
4224-18SE LASE LA×3Attack errOlivia Nzioki+0.7
4325-18SE LASE LA×3Attack errAmber Craig+1.2
Set 5
11-0NW STSE LAServe errNorthwestern St.+5.6
22-0SE LASE LAKillKeira Beverlyset Ashley Richardson+7.1
32-1SE LANW STKillElizabeth Muguruzaset Jade Longlad+5.2
43-1NW STSE LA×4KillKeira Beverlyset Ashley Richardson+5.3
54-1SE LASE LA×4Bad setJade Longlad+6.5
65-1SE LASE LA×4AceSoutheastern La.+5.3
76-1SE LASE LA×4KillKyra McKelveyset Ashley Richardson+4.0
86-2SE LANW STKillElsie Sanchezset Jade Longlad+2.3
97-2NW STSE LAKillKyra McKelveyset Ashley Richardson+2.9
107-3SE LANW STKillElsie Sanchezset Jade Longlad+2.3
118-3NW STSE LAKillKyra McKelveyset Ashley Richardson+2.9
129-3SE LASE LAKillAshley Richardsonset Jade Longlad+2.6
139-4SE LANW STServe errSoutheastern La.+1.2
1410-4NW STSE LABlockedGillian Grace Wolfblk Gracie Brown, Ashley Richardson+1.8
1511-4SE LASE LAKillGracie Brownset Ashley Richardson+1.3
1611-5SE LANW STKillAmber Craigset Jade Longlad+0.5
1712-5NW STSE LAKillMelina Gonzalezset Ashley Richardson+0.8
1812-6SE LANW STKillGillian Grace Wolfset Jade Longlad+0.3
1912-7NW STNW STKillOlivia Nziokiset Jade Longlad+0.9
2013-7NW STSE LAServe errNorthwestern St.+1.1
2113-8SE LANW STKillOlivia Nziokiset Jade Longlad+0.4
2214-8NW STSE LAKillKeira Beverlyset Ashley Richardson+0.8
2315-8SE LASE LAKillKeira Beverlyset Lindsey Wickersham+0.2

Score shown after each rally, Southeastern La. first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).