Northwestern State def. Nicholls 3-0 Volleyball (Oct 15)

FinalThu, Oct 15, 2026ESPN+

3:0

RallyIQ pre-match: Nicholls 60.9% · upsetLocked before first serve (Oct 15, 6:26 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Northwestern St. won at Nicholls 3-0 (25-18, 25-18, 25-19) on Thu, Oct 15, 2026. Northwestern St.'s Elsie Sanchez led with 13 kills, and Emmarie McFarland added 17 digs.

Data through Nov 3, 8:35 PM CT · final Oct 15

Set	1	2	3	Sets
NW ST	25	25	25	3
NICHST	18	18	19	0

Match story · written from the play-by-play

Northwestern St. won 6 of the last 8 rallies to close out Nicholls.

2 stretches decided it. Percentages are Northwestern St.'s RallyIQ win probability before and after each. RallyIQ had Nicholls at 61% before first serve.

Turning point 1: Set 1 · Northwestern St. 13–14 Nicholls
Northwestern St. scored 5 straight to turn a 13–14 deficit into an 18–14 lead. The match swung to Northwestern St.
Northwestern St. 36% → 53%
Turning point 2: Set 2 · Northwestern St. 5–3 Nicholls
8 straight Northwestern St. points stretched a 5–3 lead to 13–3.
Northwestern St. 66% → 81%

Nicholls above 50Northwestern St. belowMax swing 3.8%

Northwestern St.Nicholls

Sideout %: Northwestern St. 63.2·Nicholls 46.6
Break %: Northwestern St. 53.4·Nicholls 36.8
Hitting: Northwestern St. .311·Nicholls .112
Longest run: Northwestern St. 8·Nicholls 8

Elsie Sanchez
13 kills on .267, 14.5 points; 3 of those kills came in the turning points.

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Nicholls above 50 · Northwestern St. below

Biggest swing: 3.8% to Northwestern St. — set 1, NW ST 16-14 NICHST. Attack error by Amelie Shalfoon. NICHST win probability 57% → 53%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

NW ST 44.9%55.1% NICHST

Northwestern St. wins

3-0

10.5%

3-1

16.6%

3-2

17.8%

Nicholls wins

3-0

14.8%

3-1

20.9%

3-2

19.5%

NW ST break %: 43.1% vs this opp
NICHST break %: 44.1% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

01
Amelie ShalfoonAttack error+3.8%
Attack error by Amelie Shalfoon
Set 1 · NW ST 16-14 NICHST · NW ST 43% → 47%
02
Northwestern St.Ace+3.7%
Northwestern St. ace
Set 1 · NW ST 15-14 NICHST · NW ST 39% → 43%
03
Northwestern St.Ace+3.6%
Northwestern St. ace
Set 1 · NW ST 17-14 NICHST · NW ST 47% → 50%
04
Amelie Shalfoon&Maya SchirmerBlock+3.4%
Elsie Sanchez stuffed by Amelie Shalfoon & Maya Schirmer
Set 1 · NW ST 13-14 NICHST · NICHST 60% → 64%
05
Elizabeth MuguruzaKill+3.4%
Kill by Elizabeth Muguruza (set by Jade Longlad)
Set 3 · NW ST 17-15 NICHST · NW ST 86% → 90%
06
Madison SmithAttack error+3.3%
Attack error by Madison Smith
Set 3 · NW ST 16-15 NICHST · NW ST 83% → 86%
07
Northwestern St.Ace+3.3%
Northwestern St. ace on Lizzie Kraft
Set 3 · NW ST 19-16 NICHST · NW ST 90% → 93%
08
Kenadii Winfrey&Amber CraigBlock+3.2%
Kera Arrington stuffed by Kenadii Winfrey & Amber Craig
Set 1 · NW ST 20-16 NICHST · NW ST 51% → 55%

Box score

Official NCAA box

Northwestern St.away

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
9Elizabeth MuguruzaOH	3	10	3	27	.259	3	2	1	5	1	0	0	0	12
4Kenadii WinfreyMB	3	3	3	11	.000	0	2	0	0	0	3	3	4.5	9.5
6Amber CraigOH	3	8	0	20	.400	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	1	9
22Olivia NziokiMB	3	5	0	11	.455	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	1.5	6.5
11Jade LongladS	3	3	0	4	.750	33	2	1	7	0	0	1	0.5	5.5
12Valerie BrownL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	7	0	0	0	0	0
17Elsie SanchezOH	3	13	5	30	.267	2	0	1	6	0	0	3	1.5	14.5
16Anna Claire HebertS	3	0	0	0	–	4	3	3	5	0	0	0	0	3
2Emmarie McFarlandL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	1	0	3	17	2	0	0	0	0
1Julia WhitfieldMB	2	1	0	2	.500	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
7Harper CauleyL/DS	1	1	0	1	1.000	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	1
10Melis OzipekOH	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		44	11	106	.311	43	9	9	51	4	3	12	9	75

Nichollshome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
19Madison SmithOH	3	7	3	29	.138	1	2	2	9	3	0	0	9
5Maya SchirmerMB	3	2	2	7	.000	1	0	0	1	0	3	1.5	3.5
15Harper HoldenMB	3	1	0	3	.333	0	1	0	3	0	1	0.5	2.5
8Isabella PadillaS	3	0	0	0	–	9	0	0	4	0	0	0	0
1Lizzie KraftDS	3	0	0	0	–	1	0	0	3	1	0	0	0
3Zahahrah Edwards-WyllieOH	2	8	2	13	.462	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	8
18Kera ArringtonOH	3	7	4	23	.130	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	7
7Amelie ShalfoonOH	3	2	6	18	-.222	0	0	0	1	0	2	1	3
11Natalia NavarroL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	6	1	0	14	1	0	0	1
12Jenna CicherskiS	3	0	0	1	.000	11	0	1	6	0	0	0	0
10Tierney TerrellOH	2	2	1	9	.111	0	0	0	0	1	2	1	3
16Mckenzie MitchellOH	1	1	0	4	.250	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
2Ava-Claire CalaisS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		30	18	107	.112	29	4	3	44	9	8	4	55

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 8 NW ST · NICHST 8

Set 1

25-18

Longest run 5 NW STNICHST 3

Set 2

25-18

Longest run 8 NW STNICHST 8

Set 3

25-19

Longest run 3 NW STNICHST 3

Bars above the line = Nicholls leads, below = Northwestern St. leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Northwestern St.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	47%8/17	60%9/15
2	100%7/7	53%8/15
3	46%6/13	54%7/13
4	63%5/8	50%5/10
5	83%5/6	50%5/10
6	83%5/6	50%5/10
All	63%36/57	53%39/73

Nicholls

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	54%7/13	46%6/13
2	44%7/16	30%3/10
3	33%5/15	0%0/7
4	50%5/10	67%10/15
5	50%5/10	17%1/6
6	56%5/9	17%1/6
All	47%34/73	37%21/57

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

130 rallies

#	NW ST-NICHST	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	0-1	NICHST	NICHST×3	Kill	Zahahrah Edwards-Wyllie	set Isabella Padilla	+2.3
2	0-2	NICHST	NICHST×3	Kill	Madison Smith	set Natalia Navarro	+2.3
3	0-3	NICHST	NICHST×3	Kill	Zahahrah Edwards-Wyllie	set Isabella Padilla	+2.1
4	1-3	NICHST	NW ST	Attack err	Madison Smith		+1.5
5	2-3	NW ST	NW ST	Kill	Elizabeth Muguruza	set Jade Longlad	+2.3
6	2-4	NW ST	NICHST	Kill	Zahahrah Edwards-Wyllie	set Natalia Navarro	+1.8
7	3-4	NICHST	NW ST	Kill	Elizabeth Muguruza	set Jade Longlad	+1.8
8	3-5	NW ST	NICHST	Kill	Zahahrah Edwards-Wyllie	set Maya Schirmer	+1.8
9	4-5	NICHST	NW ST	Kill	Elsie Sanchez	set Jade Longlad	+1.8
10	4-6	NW ST	NICHST	Kill	Amelie Shalfoon	set Jenna Cicherski	+1.9
11	5-6	NICHST	NW ST	Kill	Kenadii Winfrey	set Jade Longlad	+1.8
12	6-6	NW ST	NW ST	Blocked	Amber Craig	blk Kenadii Winfrey	+2.6
13	6-7	NW ST	NICHST	Kill	Madison Smith	set Jenna Cicherski	+2.0
14	7-7	NICHST	NW ST	Kill	Elsie Sanchez	set Elizabeth Muguruza	+2.1
15	7-8	NW ST	NICHST	Kill	Kera Arrington	set Jenna Cicherski	+2.1
16	8-8	NICHST	NW ST×3	Kill	Amber Craig	set Elizabeth Muguruza	+2.1
17	9-8	NW ST	NW ST×3	Kill	Amber Craig	set Jade Longlad	+2.9
18	10-8	NW ST	NW ST×3	Ace	Northwestern St.	aced Madison Smith	+3.0
19	10-9	NW ST	NICHST	Kill	Kera Arrington	set Isabella Padilla	+2.1
20	10-10	NICHST	NICHST	Attack err	Elizabeth Muguruza		+3.0
21	11-10	NICHST	NW ST	Kill	Amber Craig	set Jade Longlad	+2.4
22	11-11	NW ST	NICHST	Serve err	Northwestern St.		+2.3
23	12-11	NICHST	NW ST	Kill	Elizabeth Muguruza	set Jade Longlad	+2.5
24	12-12	NW ST	NICHST	Serve err	Northwestern St.		+2.4
25	13-12	NICHST	NW ST	Serve err	Jenna Cicherski		+2.6
26	13-13	NW ST	NICHST	Kill	Madison Smith	set Jenna Cicherski	+2.5
27	13-14	NICHST	NICHST	Blocked	Elsie Sanchez	blk Amelie Shalfoon, Maya Schirmer	+3.4
28	14-14	NICHST	NW ST×5	Kill	Elsie Sanchez	set Jade Longlad	+2.6
29	15-14	NW ST	NW ST×5	Ace	Northwestern St.		+3.7
30	16-14	NW ST	NW ST×5	Attack err	Amelie Shalfoon		+3.8
31	17-14	NW ST	NW ST×5	Ace	Northwestern St.		+3.6
32	18-14	NW ST	NW ST×5	Attack err	Maya Schirmer		+3.1
33	18-15	NW ST	NICHST	Kill	Kera Arrington	set Jenna Cicherski	+1.8
34	18-16	NICHST	NICHST	Ace	Natalia Navarro	aced Emmarie McFarland	+3.1
35	19-16	NICHST	NW ST×4	Kill	Amber Craig	set Jade Longlad	+3.0
36	20-16	NW ST	NW ST×4	Blocked	Kera Arrington	blk Kenadii Winfrey, Amber Craig	+3.2
37	21-16	NW ST	NW ST×4	Kill	Kenadii Winfrey	set Jade Longlad	+2.3
38	22-16	NW ST	NW ST×4	Bad set	Jenna Cicherski		+1.4
39	22-17	NW ST	NICHST	Kill	Kera Arrington		+0.5
40	23-17	NICHST	NW ST	Kill	Elizabeth Muguruza	set Jade Longlad	+0.9
41	24-17	NW ST	NW ST	Kill	Elizabeth Muguruza	set Jade Longlad	+0.4
42	24-18	NW ST	NICHST	Kill	Zahahrah Edwards-Wyllie	set Isabella Padilla	+0.1
43	25-18	NICHST	NW ST	Kill	Amber Craig	set Jade Longlad	+0.1
Set 2
1	1-0	NW ST	NW ST×5	Kill	Jade Longlad	set Elsie Sanchez	+2.7
2	2-0	NW ST	NW ST×5	Kill	Elsie Sanchez	set Jade Longlad	+2.8
3	3-0	NW ST	NW ST×5	Ace	Northwestern St.		+2.8
4	4-0	NW ST	NW ST×5	Ace	Northwestern St.	aced Madison Smith	+2.7
5	5-0	NW ST	NW ST×5	Ace	Northwestern St.	aced Natalia Navarro	+2.5
6	5-1	NW ST	NICHST×3	Serve err	Northwestern St.		+1.6
7	5-2	NICHST	NICHST×3	Bad set	Jade Longlad		+2.4
8	5-3	NICHST	NICHST×3	Blocked	Elizabeth Muguruza	blk Tierney Terrell, Maya Schirmer	+2.7
9	6-3	NICHST	NW ST×8	Kill	Jade Longlad	set Elsie Sanchez	+2.3
10	7-3	NW ST	NW ST×8	Kill	Olivia Nzioki	set Jade Longlad	+2.8
11	8-3	NW ST	NW ST×8	Kill	Elsie Sanchez	set Anna Claire Hebert	+2.6
12	9-3	NW ST	NW ST×8	Kill	Elsie Sanchez	set Anna Claire Hebert	+2.3
13	10-3	NW ST	NW ST×8	Ace	Northwestern St.	aced Madison Smith	+1.9
14	11-3	NW ST	NW ST×8	Kill	Olivia Nzioki	set Jade Longlad	+1.5
15	12-3	NW ST	NW ST×8	Blocked	Tierney Terrell	blk Elsie Sanchez, Olivia Nzioki	+1.2
16	13-3	NW ST	NW ST×8	Ace	Northwestern St.	aced Tierney Terrell	+0.8
17	13-4	NW ST	NICHST	Kill	Mckenzie Mitchell	set Isabella Padilla	+0.4
18	14-4	NICHST	NW ST×4	Kill	Olivia Nzioki	set Jade Longlad	+0.6
19	15-4	NW ST	NW ST×4	Kill	Jade Longlad		+0.5
20	16-4	NW ST	NW ST×4	Kill	Elsie Sanchez	set Jade Longlad	+0.3
21	17-4	NW ST	NW ST×4	Kill	Kenadii Winfrey	set Jade Longlad	+0.2
22	17-5	NW ST	NICHST×8	Serve err	Northwestern St.		+0.1
23	17-6	NICHST	NICHST×8	Ace	Madison Smith	aced Emmarie McFarland	+0.1
24	17-7	NICHST	NICHST×8	Attack err	Kenadii Winfrey		+0.2
25	17-8	NICHST	NICHST×8	Blocked	Elsie Sanchez	blk Maya Schirmer, Amelie Shalfoon	+0.3
26	17-9	NICHST	NICHST×8	Attack err	Kenadii Winfrey		+0.5
27	17-10	NICHST	NICHST×8	Kill	Kera Arrington	set Jenna Cicherski	+0.7
28	17-11	NICHST	NICHST×8	Attack err	Elsie Sanchez		+1.1
29	17-12	NICHST	NICHST×8	Ace	Madison Smith	aced Harper Cauley	+1.5
30	18-12	NICHST	NW ST	Kill	Elsie Sanchez	set Jade Longlad	+1.6
31	18-13	NW ST	NICHST	Kill	Amelie Shalfoon	set Natalia Navarro	+1.1
32	19-13	NICHST	NW ST	Kill	Harper Cauley	set Jade Longlad	+1.6
33	19-14	NW ST	NICHST	Attack err	Elsie Sanchez		+1.0
34	20-14	NICHST	NW ST	Kill	Elizabeth Muguruza	set Jade Longlad	+1.5
35	20-15	NW ST	NICHST	Kill	Tierney Terrell	set Isabella Padilla	+0.8
36	21-15	NICHST	NW ST	Kill	Amber Craig	set Emmarie McFarland	+1.4
37	21-16	NW ST	NICHST	Blocked	Elizabeth Muguruza	blk Tierney Terrell, Harper Holden	+0.7
38	21-17	NICHST	NICHST	Ace	Harper Holden	aced Elizabeth Muguruza	+1.5
39	22-17	NICHST	NW ST	Kill	Elizabeth Muguruza	set Jade Longlad	+1.9
40	22-18	NW ST	NICHST	Attack err	Elsie Sanchez		+0.9
41	23-18	NICHST	NW ST×3	Kill	Julia Whitfield	set Jade Longlad	+1.7
42	24-18	NW ST	NW ST×3	Blocked	Amelie Shalfoon	blk Kenadii Winfrey, Elsie Sanchez	+0.9
43	25-18	NW ST	NW ST×3	Attack err	Amelie Shalfoon		+0.2
Set 3
1	1-0	NICHST	NW ST	Kill	Elizabeth Muguruza	set Jade Longlad	+1.6
2	1-1	NW ST	NICHST	Kill	Harper Holden	set Isabella Padilla	+1.5
3	2-1	NICHST	NW ST	Blocked	Madison Smith	blk Olivia Nzioki, Jade Longlad	+1.6
4	3-1	NW ST	NW ST	Attack err	Kera Arrington		+2.2
5	3-2	NW ST	NICHST	Kill	Maya Schirmer	set Isabella Padilla	+1.6
6	4-2	NICHST	NW ST×3	Kill	Olivia Nzioki	set Jade Longlad	+1.7
7	5-2	NW ST	NW ST×3	Blocked	Maya Schirmer	blk Kenadii Winfrey	+2.2
8	6-2	NW ST	NW ST×3	Kill	Elsie Sanchez	set Jade Longlad	+2.1
9	6-3	NW ST	NICHST	Serve err	Northwestern St.		+1.4
10	6-4	NICHST	NICHST	Kill	Madison Smith	set Natalia Navarro	+2.0
11	7-4	NICHST	NW ST	Kill	Elsie Sanchez	set Jade Longlad	+1.7
12	7-5	NW ST	NICHST	Serve err	Northwestern St.		+1.6
13	8-5	NICHST	NW ST	Serve err	Madison Smith		+1.8
14	8-6	NW ST	NICHST	Kill	Madison Smith	set Natalia Navarro	+1.6
15	8-7	NICHST	NICHST	Kill	Maya Schirmer	set Lizzie Kraft	+2.3
16	9-7	NICHST	NW ST	Kill	Amber Craig	set Jade Longlad	+1.9
17	9-8	NW ST	NICHST×3	Kill	Zahahrah Edwards-Wyllie	set Jenna Cicherski	+1.8
18	9-9	NICHST	NICHST×3	Kill	Zahahrah Edwards-Wyllie	set Madison Smith	+2.5
19	9-10	NICHST	NICHST×3	Kill	Kera Arrington	set Jenna Cicherski	+2.5
20	10-10	NICHST	NW ST	Serve err	Madison Smith		+1.9
21	10-11	NW ST	NICHST	Kill	Zahahrah Edwards-Wyllie	set Natalia Navarro	+2.0
22	11-11	NICHST	NW ST	Attack err	Zahahrah Edwards-Wyllie		+2.0
23	11-12	NW ST	NICHST	Kill	Kera Arrington	set Jenna Cicherski	+2.0
24	12-12	NICHST	NW ST	Kill	Olivia Nzioki	set Jade Longlad	+2.1
25	13-12	NW ST	NW ST	Attack err	Kera Arrington		+2.9
26	13-13	NW ST	NICHST	Serve err	Northwestern St.		+2.2
27	13-14	NICHST	NICHST	Attack err	Kenadii Winfrey		+2.9
28	14-14	NICHST	NW ST	Blocked	Amelie Shalfoon	blk Kenadii Winfrey, Elsie Sanchez	+2.2
29	14-15	NW ST	NICHST	Kill	Madison Smith	set Isabella Padilla	+2.3
30	15-15	NICHST	NW ST×3	Kill	Elsie Sanchez	set Elizabeth Muguruza	+2.4
31	16-15	NW ST	NW ST×3	Attack err	Madison Smith		+3.3
32	17-15	NW ST	NW ST×3	Kill	Elizabeth Muguruza	set Jade Longlad	+3.4
33	17-16	NW ST	NICHST	Serve err	Northwestern St.		+2.3
34	18-16	NICHST	NW ST	Kill	Amber Craig	set Jade Longlad	+2.8
35	19-16	NW ST	NW ST	Ace	Northwestern St.	aced Lizzie Kraft	+3.3
36	19-17	NW ST	NICHST	Kill	Madison Smith	set Jenna Cicherski	+2.0
37	20-17	NICHST	NW ST	Blocked	Kera Arrington	blk Olivia Nzioki, Amber Craig	+2.7
38	20-18	NW ST	NICHST	Serve err	Northwestern St.		+2.0
39	21-18	NICHST	NW ST	Kill	Elizabeth Muguruza	set Jade Longlad	+2.8
40	22-18	NW ST	NW ST	Attack err	Zahahrah Edwards-Wyllie		+2.8
41	22-19	NW ST	NICHST	Kill	Tierney Terrell	set Jenna Cicherski	+1.2
42	23-19	NICHST	NW ST×3	Kill	Elsie Sanchez	set Anna Claire Hebert	+2.1
43	24-19	NW ST	NW ST×3	Attack err	Amelie Shalfoon		+1.3
44	25-19	NW ST	NW ST×3	Kill	Elsie Sanchez	set Anna Claire Hebert	+0.3

Score shown after each rally, Northwestern St. first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).

Northwestern St. def. Nicholls 3–0

Northwestern St. won 6 of the last 8 rallies to close out Nicholls.