Final · 4 setsSat, Oct 17, 2026Watch on ESPN+

Northern Ariz. def. Idaho 3–1

RallyIQ pre-match: Northern Ariz. 75.1% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Oct 17, 7:56 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Northern Ariz. won at Idaho 3-1 (19-25, 25-21, 25-16, 25-23) on Sat, Oct 17, 2026. Northern Ariz.'s Hanah Stoddard led with 16 kills, and Kate Federico added 16 digs.

Data through · final Oct 17

Set1234Sets
NAU192525253
IDAHO252116231

Match story · written from the play-by-play

Northern Ariz. held on against Idaho.

3 stretches decided it. Percentages are Northern Ariz.'s RallyIQ win probability before and after each. Northern Ariz. went in as RallyIQ's 75% pick.

  1. Turning point 1: Set 2 · Northern Ariz. 20–21 Idaho

    Northern Ariz. scored 5 straight to turn a 20–21 deficit into a 25–21 lead. The match swung to Northern Ariz.

    Northern Ariz. 45% → 70%

  2. Turning point 2: Set 4 · Northern Ariz. 20–19 Idaho

    Idaho scored 4 straight to turn a 19–20 deficit into a 23–20 lead.

    Northern Ariz. 88% → 66%

  3. Turning point 3: Set 4 · Northern Ariz. 21–23 Idaho

    4 of the last 4 rallies went to Northern Ariz., enough to take the set 25–23 and win the match 3–1.

    Northern Ariz. 68% → >99%

Idaho above 50Northern Ariz. belowMax swing 9.7%

Northern Ariz.Idaho

Sideout %
Northern Ariz. 55.8·Idaho 50.5
Break %
Northern Ariz. 49.5·Idaho 44.2
Hitting
Northern Ariz. .246·Idaho .159
Longest run
Northern Ariz. 8·Idaho 4

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Idaho above 50 · Northern Ariz. below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100+9.7% NAUrally 179 · set 4

Biggest swing: 9.7% to Northern Ariz. — set 4, NAU 24-23 IDAHO. Kill by Hanah Stoddard (set by Kate Federico). IDAHO win probability 18% → 9%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

NAU 76.9%23.1% IDAHO

Northern Ariz. wins

3-0
28.6%
3-1
29.3%
3-2
19.0%

Idaho wins

3-0
4.0%
3-1
7.8%
3-2
11.3%
NAU break %
46.4% vs this opp
IDAHO break %
40.8% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01

    Kill by Hanah Stoddard (set by Kate Federico)

    Set 4 · NAU 24-23 IDAHO · NAU 82% → 91%

  2. 02

    Kill by Hanah Stoddard (set by Taryn Davis)

    Set 4 · NAU 25-23 IDAHO · NAU 91% → 100%

  3. 03

    Kill by Avery Gottschalk

    Set 4 · NAU 23-23 IDAHO · NAU 74% → 82%

  4. 04
    Alaina ArmstrongAttack error+7.4%

    Attack error by Alaina Armstrong

    Set 2 · NAU 22-21 IDAHO · NAU 50% → 57%

  5. 05

    Kill by Alaina Armstrong (set by Kiana Greer)

    Set 2 · NAU 20-21 IDAHO · IDAHO 48% → 55%

  6. 06
    Quincey CoyleKill+6.7%

    Kill by Quincey Coyle (set by Kate Federico)

    Set 2 · NAU 23-21 IDAHO · NAU 57% → 64%

  7. 07

    Ace by Csenge Krakoczki on Hanah Stoddard

    Set 4 · NAU 20-22 IDAHO · IDAHO 22% → 28%

  8. 08
    Ella HosfeldBad set+6.2%

    Bad set by Ella Hosfeld

    Set 4 · NAU 20-21 IDAHO · IDAHO 16% → 22%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
416453.226204121010.516.5
415232.4060138000016
48628.07100010233.511.5
4519.44400110111.56.5
4428.250100201226
4102.5001901900001
4329.11110010010.53.5
4000–18301100003
3001.000100320000
3000–5001610000
Team totals5217142.246474964648894
Idahohome
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
415846.15212313000017
49217.41200000010.59.5
44318.056011101227
46318.16700010010.56.5
4004.000362180010.52.5
310731.0970002000010
4000–010910001
4002.0004002010000
3000–101500000
2218.12500020010.52.5
2207.286001000002
2000–000000000
1000–000300000
Team totals4824151.159426764416485

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Northern Ariz. vs Idaho

Season series · Northern Ariz. leads 2-0

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 8 NAU · IDAHO 4

Set 1

19-25

Longest run 5 NAUIDAHO 4

Set 2

25-21

Longest run 5 NAUIDAHO 3

Set 3

25-16

Longest run 8 NAUIDAHO 3

Set 4

25-23

Longest run 5 NAUIDAHO 4

Bars above the line = Idaho leads, below = Northern Ariz. leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Northern Ariz.

SlotSideout %Break %
1
56%10/18
33%4/12
2
60%9/15
41%7/17
3
53%8/15
62%13/21
4
62%8/13
58%11/19
5
54%7/13
22%2/9
6
50%6/12
60%9/15
All
56%48/86
49%46/93

Idaho

SlotSideout %Break %
1
91%10/11
56%10/18
2
43%9/21
40%6/15
3
32%8/25
31%4/13
4
70%7/10
47%7/15
5
64%7/11
46%6/13
6
40%6/15
42%5/12
All
51%47/93
44%38/86

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

179 rallies

#NAU-IDAHOSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
10-1IDAHOIDAHOKillSarah Sullivanset Csenge Krakoczki+2.1
21-1IDAHONAUKillGigi Greenleeset Ella Hosfeld+1.5
31-2NAUIDAHO×4KillKiana Greerset Csenge Krakoczki+1.6
41-3IDAHOIDAHO×4BlockedHanah Stoddardblk Sarah Sullivan, Koen Makaula+2.2
51-4IDAHOIDAHO×4KillAlaina Armstrongset Csenge Krakoczki+2.3
61-5IDAHOIDAHO×4KillAlaina Armstrongset Csenge Krakoczki+2.3
72-5IDAHONAUAttack errKiana Greer+1.5
82-6NAUIDAHOKillAlaina Armstrongset Csenge Krakoczki+1.8
93-6IDAHONAUKillHanah Stoddardset Lilly Holmes+1.5
103-7NAUIDAHOKillAlaina Armstrongset Csenge Krakoczki+1.8
114-7IDAHONAUKillAvery Gottschalkset Taryn Davis+1.5
124-8NAUIDAHOKillKoen Makaulaset Csenge Krakoczki+1.9
135-8IDAHONAUBad setCsenge Krakoczki+1.6
146-8NAUNAUAttack errGabrielle Smith+2.3
156-9NAUIDAHOServe errElla Hosfeld+2.0
166-10IDAHOIDAHOAttack errHanah Stoddard+2.6
177-10IDAHONAUKillQuincey Coyleset Ella Hosfeld+1.6
187-11NAUIDAHO×4KillGabrielle Smithset Csenge Krakoczki+2.0
197-12IDAHOIDAHO×4KillGabrielle Smith+2.4
207-13IDAHOIDAHO×4AceKiana Greer+2.1
217-14IDAHOIDAHO×4KillAlaina Armstrongset Ella Hosfeld+1.8
228-14IDAHONAUKillGigi Greenleeset Ella Hosfeld+0.9
238-15NAUIDAHOKillSarah Sullivanset Csenge Krakoczki+1.3
249-15IDAHONAU×5KillHanah Stoddardset Ella Hosfeld+0.9
2510-15NAUNAU×5AceTaryn Davis+1.5
2611-15NAUNAU×5Attack errSarah Sullivan+1.9
2712-15NAUNAU×5KillAvery Gottschalkset Koen Makaula+2.3
2813-15NAUNAU×5Attack errSarah Sullivan+2.7
2913-16NAUIDAHOBad setLilly Holmes+2.5
3014-16IDAHONAUKillHanah Stoddardset Taryn Davis+2.0
3115-16NAUNAUKillQuincey Coyleset Taryn Davis+3.1
3215-17NAUIDAHOServe errHanah Stoddard+2.8
3315-18IDAHOIDAHOKillKiana Greerset Csenge Krakoczki+3.6
3416-18IDAHONAUAttack errKiana Greer+2.1
3516-19NAUIDAHO×3Bad setTaryn Davis+2.9
3616-20IDAHOIDAHO×3Attack errGigi Greenlee+3.2
3716-21IDAHOIDAHO×3AceKoen Makaulaaced Lilly Holmes+2.4
3817-21IDAHONAUKillGigi Greenleeset Taryn Davis+1.0
3917-22NAUIDAHOKillGabrielle Smithset Csenge Krakoczki+1.7
4017-23IDAHOIDAHOAceCsenge Krakoczkiaced Lilly Holmes+1.2
4118-23IDAHONAUServe errCsenge Krakoczki+0.3
4218-24NAUIDAHOServe errQuincey Coyle+0.7
4319-24IDAHONAUKillGigi Greenleeset Ella Hosfeld+0.1
4419-25NAUIDAHOAttack errHanah Stoddard+0.3
Set 2
10-1NAUIDAHOServe errHanah Stoddard+2.2
20-2IDAHOIDAHOAttack errAvery Gottschalk+3.0
31-2IDAHONAUKillHanah Stoddardset Taryn Davis+2.1
42-2NAUNAUKillLauren Edlundset Hanah Stoddard+2.8
52-3NAUIDAHOKillAlaina Armstrongset Csenge Krakoczki+2.3
63-3IDAHONAUBlockedAlaina Armstrongblk Gigi Greenlee+2.1
73-4NAUIDAHOKillKoen Makaulaset Csenge Krakoczki+2.3
84-4IDAHONAUKillHanah Stoddardset Ella Hosfeld+2.2
94-5NAUIDAHO×3KillKiana Greerset Csenge Krakoczki+2.4
104-6IDAHOIDAHO×3KillKiana Greerset Csenge Krakoczki+3.3
114-7IDAHOIDAHO×3KillKiana Greer+3.4
125-7IDAHONAUBad setKoen Makaula+2.3
135-8NAUIDAHOKillGabrielle Smithset Csenge Krakoczki+2.7
146-8IDAHONAUKillAvery Gottschalkset Ella Hosfeld+2.3
157-8NAUNAUBlockedSarah Sullivanblk Hanah Stoddard, Avery Gottschalk+3.3
167-9NAUIDAHOKillKiana Greerset Csenge Krakoczki+2.8
177-10IDAHOIDAHOKillGabrielle Smith+3.7
188-10IDAHONAUServe errKiana Greer+2.4
199-10NAUNAUKillQuincey Coyleset Taryn Davis+3.5
209-11NAUIDAHOKillAlaina Armstrongset Csenge Krakoczki+3.0
2110-11IDAHONAUKillAvery Gottschalkset Taryn Davis+2.7
2210-12NAUIDAHOServe errAvery Gottschalk+3.1
2311-12IDAHONAU×4Serve errSophie Danielson+2.7
2412-12NAUNAU×4Attack errAlaina Armstrong+3.8
2513-12NAUNAU×4Bad setKeira Kleidon+3.8
2614-12NAUNAU×4Attack errKiana Greer+3.5
2714-13NAUIDAHOAttack errQuincey Coyle+2.6
2814-14IDAHOIDAHOKillKiana Greerset Csenge Krakoczki+4.0
2915-14IDAHONAUBlockedKiana Greerblk Masina Perez, Gigi Greenlee+3.1
3015-15NAUIDAHOKillKoen Makaulaset Csenge Krakoczki+3.2
3116-15IDAHONAUServe errKoen Makaula+3.2
3216-16NAUIDAHOKillKiana Greerset Csenge Krakoczki+3.4
3317-16IDAHONAUKillMasina Perezset Ella Hosfeld+3.4
3417-17NAUIDAHOKillKiana Greerset Csenge Krakoczki+3.6
3517-18IDAHOIDAHOAceKiana Greer+5.4
3618-18IDAHONAUServe errKiana Greer+3.9
3718-19NAUIDAHOServe errHanah Stoddard+4.5
3819-19IDAHONAUKillLauren Edlundset Taryn Davis+4.2
3920-19NAUNAUAttack errAlaina Armstrong+5.9
4020-20NAUIDAHOKillSophie Danielsonset Csenge Krakoczki+4.5
4120-21IDAHOIDAHOKillAlaina Armstrongset Kiana Greer+7.1
4221-21IDAHONAU×5KillQuincey Coyleset Taryn Davis+5.0
4322-21NAUNAU×5Attack errAlaina Armstrong+7.4
4423-21NAUNAU×5KillQuincey Coyleset Kate Federico+6.7
4524-21NAUNAU×5KillQuincey Coyleset Ella Hosfeld+4.4
4625-21NAUNAU×5KillHanah Stoddardset Ella Hosfeld+1.6
Set 3
10-1IDAHOIDAHOAttack errQuincey Coyle+3.0
20-2IDAHOIDAHOKillSophie Danielsonset Csenge Krakoczki+3.2
31-2IDAHONAUAttack errKiana Greer+2.2
41-3NAUIDAHOKillGabrielle Smithset Csenge Krakoczki+2.5
51-4IDAHOIDAHOAttack errLauren Edlund+3.4
62-4IDAHONAUKillQuincey Coyleset Masina Perez+2.3
72-5NAUIDAHO×3KillKiana Greerset Kyriah Trefren+2.6
82-6IDAHOIDAHO×3Attack errGigi Greenlee+3.4
92-7IDAHOIDAHO×3BlockedGigi Greenleeblk Koen Makaula+3.3
103-7IDAHONAUAttack errKoen Makaula+2.0
114-7NAUNAUKillHanah Stoddardset Ella Hosfeld+3.1
124-8NAUIDAHOKillKiana Greerset Csenge Krakoczki+2.7
134-9IDAHOIDAHOAttack errGigi Greenlee+3.4
145-9IDAHONAUKillGigi Greenleeset Ella Hosfeld+2.1
155-10NAUIDAHOKillAlaina Armstrongset Csenge Krakoczki+2.6
165-11IDAHOIDAHOBlockedHanah Stoddardblk Gabrielle Smith, Csenge Krakoczki+3.1
176-11IDAHONAU×3KillMasina Perezset Ella Hosfeld+1.8
187-11NAUNAU×3KillQuincey Coyleset Taryn Davis+2.8
198-11NAUNAU×3AceTaryn Davis+3.2
208-12NAUIDAHOKillAlaina Armstrongset Csenge Krakoczki+3.0
219-12IDAHONAU×4KillHanah Stoddardset Taryn Davis+2.4
2210-12NAUNAU×4Attack errAlaina Armstrong+3.7
2311-12NAUNAU×4Attack errAlaina Armstrong+3.9
2412-12NAUNAU×4Bad setSophie Danielson+4.1
2512-13NAUIDAHOKillGabrielle Smithset Csenge Krakoczki+3.3
2613-13IDAHONAUKillQuincey Coyleset Lauren Edlund+3.1
2713-14NAUIDAHOBad setLauren Edlund+3.5
2814-14IDAHONAUKillQuincey Coyleset Taryn Davis+3.3
2915-14NAUNAUKillQuincey Coyleset Ella Hosfeld+4.4
3015-15NAUIDAHOKillKoen Makaulaset Csenge Krakoczki+3.4
3116-15IDAHONAU×8KillQuincey Coyleset Ella Hosfeld+3.4
3217-15NAUNAU×8Attack errKiana Greer+4.3
3318-15NAUNAU×8BlockedKoen Makaulablk Gigi Greenlee, Masina Perez+3.7
3419-15NAUNAU×8AceQuincey Coyleaced Kailee Wakatake+2.9
3520-15NAUNAU×8KillMasina Perezset Ella Hosfeld+2.0
3621-15NAUNAU×8KillGigi Greenleeset Sarah Sullivan+1.2
3722-15NAUNAU×8BlockedKiana Greerblk Masina Perez+0.6
3823-15NAUNAU×8Bad setZola Zuccolo+0.2
3923-16NAUIDAHOServe errQuincey Coyle·
4024-16IDAHONAUKillHanah Stoddardset Ella Hosfeld+0.1
4125-16NAUNAUBlockedAlaina Armstrongblk Avery Gottschalk·
Set 4
10-1NAUIDAHOServe errHanah Stoddard+1.9
20-2IDAHOIDAHOKillSarah Sullivanset Keira Kleidon+2.6
31-2IDAHONAU×3KillQuincey Coyleset Taryn Davis+1.8
42-2NAUNAU×3KillQuincey Coyleset Taryn Davis+2.5
53-2NAUNAU×3BlockedKiana Greerblk Gigi Greenlee, Lauren Edlund+2.4
63-3NAUIDAHOKillKiana Greerset Csenge Krakoczki+1.8
73-4IDAHOIDAHOAttack errLauren Edlund+2.7
84-4IDAHONAUKillGigi Greenleeset Taryn Davis+1.9
95-4NAUNAUKillHanah Stoddardset Kate Federico+2.5
105-5NAUIDAHO×4KillKiana Greerset Csenge Krakoczki+1.9
115-6IDAHOIDAHO×4KillAllie Ferrin+2.8
125-7IDAHOIDAHO×4Attack errGigi Greenlee+3.0
135-8IDAHOIDAHO×4KillAllie Ferrinset Keira Kleidon+3.1
146-8IDAHONAUServe errKiana Greer+2.0
157-8NAUNAUKillElla Hosfeldset Keira Kleidon+2.9
167-9NAUIDAHOServe errQuincey Coyle+2.4
178-9IDAHONAUKillHanah Stoddardset Ella Hosfeld+2.2
189-9NAUNAUAttack errGabrielle Smith+3.0
199-10NAUIDAHOAttack errMasina Perez+2.4
2010-10IDAHONAUKillHanah Stoddardset Kate Federico+2.3
2111-10NAUNAUAceTaryn Davisaced Keira Kleidon+3.0
2211-11NAUIDAHO×3KillGabrielle Smithset Csenge Krakoczki+2.3
2311-12IDAHOIDAHO×3AceKailee Wakatakeaced Kate Federico+3.4
2411-13IDAHOIDAHO×3KillSarah Sullivanset Csenge Krakoczki+3.6
2512-13IDAHONAUKillHanah Stoddardset Taryn Davis+2.5
2612-14NAUIDAHOKillSarah Sullivanset Keira Kleidon+2.9
2713-14IDAHONAU×4KillQuincey Coyleset Kate Federico+2.6
2814-14NAUNAU×4KillLauren Edlundset Hanah Stoddard+3.6
2915-14NAUNAU×4KillGigi Greenleeset Taryn Davis+3.6
3016-14NAUNAU×4Attack errKoen Makaula+3.4
3116-15NAUIDAHOKillSarah Sullivanset Csenge Krakoczki+2.4
3217-15IDAHONAUServe errKyriah Trefren+2.6
3317-16NAUIDAHOKillKiana Greerset Keira Kleidon+2.5
3417-17IDAHOIDAHOBad setElla Hosfeld+4.1
3518-17IDAHONAUAttack errCsenge Krakoczki+3.2
3619-17NAUNAUAttack errAllie Ferrin+4.0
3719-18NAUIDAHOKillKiana Greerset Csenge Krakoczki+2.7
3819-19IDAHOIDAHOBlockedGigi Greenleeblk Koen Makaula, Allie Ferrin+4.7
3920-19IDAHONAUKillHanah Stoddardset Ella Hosfeld+3.7
4020-20NAUIDAHO×4KillGabrielle Smithset Csenge Krakoczki+3.9
4120-21IDAHOIDAHO×4Bad setElla Hosfeld+6.2
4220-22IDAHOIDAHO×4AceCsenge Krakoczkiaced Hanah Stoddard+6.5
4320-23IDAHOIDAHO×4Attack errMasina Perez+5.5
4421-23IDAHONAU×5KillMasina Perezset Ella Hosfeld+2.3
4522-23NAUNAU×5Bad setKeira Kleidon+5.2
4623-23NAUNAU×5KillAvery Gottschalk+8.0
4724-23NAUNAU×5KillHanah Stoddardset Kate Federico+9.7
4825-23NAUNAU×5KillHanah Stoddardset Taryn Davis+8.6

Score shown after each rally, Northern Ariz. first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).