Wake Forest vs Florida State: Florida State Wins 3-0 (Oct 4)

FinalSun, Oct 4, 2026ACCNX

0:3

RallyIQ pre-match: Florida St. 81.8% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Oct 4, 11:56 AM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Florida St. beat visiting Wake Forest 3-0 (25-20, 25-22, 25-23) on Sun, Oct 4, 2026. Florida St.'s Bailey Higgins led with 11 kills, and Kyleene Filimaua added 8 digs.

Data through Nov 3, 3:00 PM CT · final Oct 4

Set	1	2	3	Sets
WAKE	20	22	23	0
FSU	25	25	25	3

Match story · written from the play-by-play

All three sets were decided by five or fewer, and Florida St. won each one, leading every phase.

No single rally moved win probability more than 4.2 points. Wake Forest peaked at 31% in Set 1. These are the numbers behind it. RallyIQ gave Florida St. 82% before first serve.

Wake ForestFlorida St.

Break %+8.2 pts
36.444.6
Points won on own serve: 33 of 74 vs 24 of 66. Wake Forest sided out 55.4% of the time.
Hitting+.092
.136.228
38 K / 15 E against 34 K / 20 E.
Longest run+1
45
5 straight Florida St. points in the second set turned a 20–22 deficit into a 25–22 lead. That set ended 25–22.

Florida St. above 50Wake Forest belowMax swing 4.2%

Wake ForestFlorida St.

Aces: Wake Forest 5·Florida St. 6
Serve err: Wake Forest 6·Florida St. 9
Blocks: Wake Forest 5·Florida St. 70 BS · 10 BA vs 3 BS · 8 BA
Digs: Wake Forest 38·Florida St. 41

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Florida St. above 50 · Wake Forest below

Biggest swing: 4.2% to Florida St. — set 2, WAKE 22-23 FSU. Kill by Sofia Moss (set by Callie Kieffer). FSU win probability 87% → 92%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

WAKE 24.2%75.8% FSU

Wake Forest wins

3-0

4.2%

3-1

8.3%

3-2

11.7%

Florida St. wins

3-0

27.7%

3-1

28.9%

3-2

19.2%

WAKE break %: 37.9% vs this opp
FSU break %: 43.2% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

01
Sofia MossKill+4.2%
Kill by Sofia Moss (set by Callie Kieffer)
Set 2 · WAKE 22-23 FSU · FSU 87% → 92%
02
Ryleigh WhitekettleAttack error+3.8%
Attack error by Ryleigh Whitekettle
Set 2 · WAKE 22-22 FSU · FSU 84% → 87%
03
Lyla StewartAttack error+3.5%
Attack error by Lyla Stewart
Set 2 · WAKE 22-24 FSU · FSU 92% → 95%
04
Bailey HigginsAttack error+3.4%
Attack error by Bailey Higgins
Set 2 · WAKE 21-19 FSU · WAKE 14% → 17%
05
Lyla StewartAttack error+3.1%
Attack error by Lyla Stewart
Set 1 · WAKE 17-18 FSU · FSU 79% → 83%
06
Sofia Moss&Nenu KpeaBlock+3.0%
Ryleigh Whitekettle stuffed by Sofia Moss & Nenu Kpea
Set 1 · WAKE 16-16 FSU · FSU 77% → 80%
07
Wake ForestAce+2.8%
Wake Forest ace on Sofia Moss
Set 2 · WAKE 19-18 FSU · WAKE 11% → 14%
08
Florida St.Ace+2.8%
Florida St. ace
Set 1 · WAKE 17-19 FSU · FSU 83% → 85%

Box score

Official NCAA box

Wake Forestaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
21Lyla StewartOH	3	9	6	24	.125	0	1	1	7	1	0	0	10
10Catherine BurkeMB	3	6	2	9	.444	0	0	1	1	0	2	1	7
22Ryleigh WhitekettleOH	3	6	5	17	.059	0	0	0	2	0	1	0.5	6.5
15Amina NdiayeOH	3	3	2	17	.059	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	3
18Becca BellowsS	3	0	0	0	–	12	2	0	1	0	0	0	2
23Sanaa WilliamsMB	2	2	2	11	.000	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.5	2.5
16Laiya EboOH	3	7	1	19	.316	0	0	0	2	0	4	2	9
8Emma KeepingS	3	0	0	0	–	10	1	2	8	0	0	0	1
9Andrea RomanDS	3	0	0	1	.000	3	0	1	8	1	0	0	0
13Mattea SaundersL/DS	3	0	0	1	.000	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0
6Camille McCoyMB	1	1	2	3	-.333	0	0	0	1	0	2	1	2
3Ava RoddeyS	1	0	0	1	.000	5	1	0	2	0	0	0	1
11Sadie PoeckOH	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		34	20	103	.136	30	5	6	38	6	10	5	65

Florida St.home

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
21Bailey HigginsOPP	3	11	3	25	.320	0	2	0	7	0	0	3	1.5	14.5
12Kyleene FilimauaOH	3	9	7	30	.067	0	2	6	8	0	0	0	0	11
16Nenu KpeaMB	3	7	2	14	.357	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	1.5	8.5
24Delaney EwingMB	3	4	0	10	.400	0	0	0	0	0	1	3	2.5	6.5
17Sofia MossOH	3	5	2	19	.158	1	0	0	5	2	0	1	0.5	5.5
9Emma LiloS	3	2	1	2	.500	31	0	1	7	0	1	0	1	3
13Bennett RatermanMB	3	0	0	0	–	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
6Victoria DavidOH	3	0	0	0	–	0	1	1	4	1	0	0	0	1
15Johanna SovaOPP	3	0	0	1	.000	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0
18Maile ChanL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	7	0	0	0	0	0
10Callie KiefferS	2	0	0	0	–	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		38	15	101	.228	36	6	9	41	5	3	8	7	75

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 4 WAKE · FSU 5

Set 1

20-25

Longest run 4 WAKEFSU 4

Set 2

22-25

Longest run 3 WAKEFSU 5

Set 3

23-25

Longest run 4 WAKEFSU 3

Bars above the line = Florida St. leads, below = Wake Forest leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Wake Forest

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	50%8/16	54%7/13
2	73%8/11	33%4/12
3	41%7/17	27%3/11
4	64%7/11	30%3/10
5	50%6/12	13%1/8
6	71%5/7	50%6/12
All	55%41/74	36%24/66

Florida St.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	67%8/12	42%5/12
2	62%8/13	43%6/14
3	89%8/9	43%6/14
4	70%7/10	53%8/15
5	60%6/10	33%3/9
6	42%5/12	50%5/10
All	64%42/66	45%33/74

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

140 rallies

#	WAKE-FSU	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	FSU	WAKE	Kill	Catherine Burke	set Becca Bellows	+1.3
2	1-1	WAKE	FSU	Kill	Kyleene Filimaua	set Sofia Moss	+1.2
3	2-1	FSU	WAKE×4	Serve err	Florida St.		+1.3
4	3-1	WAKE	WAKE×4	Kill	Ryleigh Whitekettle	set Becca Bellows	+2.0
5	4-1	WAKE	WAKE×4	Blocked	Sofia Moss	blk Ryleigh Whitekettle, Sanaa Williams	+2.1
6	5-1	WAKE	WAKE×4	Kill	Lyla Stewart	set Becca Bellows	+2.1
7	5-2	WAKE	FSU×4	Serve err	Wake Forest		+1.3
8	5-3	FSU	FSU×4	Kill	Bailey Higgins	set Emma Lilo	+1.9
9	5-4	FSU	FSU×4	Attack err	Sanaa Williams		+2.0
10	5-5	FSU	FSU×4	Attack err	Lyla Stewart		+1.9
11	6-5	FSU	WAKE	Kill	Lyla Stewart	set Becca Bellows	+1.5
12	6-6	WAKE	FSU	Kill	Bailey Higgins	set Emma Lilo	+1.3
13	7-6	FSU	WAKE	Kill	Sanaa Williams	set Emma Keeping	+1.5
14	7-7	WAKE	FSU	Kill	Kyleene Filimaua	set Emma Lilo	+1.4
15	8-7	FSU	WAKE×4	Kill	Laiya Ebo	set Sofia Moss	+1.6
16	9-7	WAKE	WAKE×4	Attack err	Laiya Ebo		+2.4
17	10-7	WAKE	WAKE×4	Attack err	Nenu Kpea		+2.5
18	11-7	WAKE	WAKE×4	Blocked	Kyleene Filimaua	blk Laiya Ebo, Catherine Burke	+2.4
19	11-8	WAKE	FSU	Kill	Nenu Kpea	set Emma Lilo	+1.4
20	11-9	FSU	FSU	Kill	Kyleene Filimaua	set Emma Lilo	+2.2
21	12-9	FSU	WAKE×3	Attack err	Kyleene Filimaua		+1.9
22	13-9	WAKE	WAKE×3	Ace	Wake Forest	aced Sofia Moss	+2.6
23	14-9	WAKE	WAKE×3	Attack err	Bailey Higgins		+2.4
24	14-10	WAKE	FSU×4	Kill	Kyleene Filimaua	set Emma Lilo	+1.2
25	14-11	FSU	FSU×4	Blocked	Amina Ndiaye	blk Delaney Ewing, Bailey Higgins	+2.1
26	14-12	FSU	FSU×4	Kill	Kyleene Filimaua	set Emma Lilo	+2.4
27	14-13	FSU	FSU×4	Attack err	Ryleigh Whitekettle		+2.6
28	15-13	FSU	WAKE	Kill	Amina Ndiaye	set Becca Bellows	+2.2
29	15-14	WAKE	FSU	Blocked	Catherine Burke	blk Delaney Ewing, Bailey Higgins	+1.8
30	16-14	FSU	WAKE	Serve err	Florida St.		+2.3
31	16-15	WAKE	FSU	Attack err	Sofia Moss		+1.9
32	16-16	FSU	FSU	Blocked	Ryleigh Whitekettle	blk Sofia Moss, Nenu Kpea	+3.0
33	17-16	FSU	WAKE	Kill	Lyla Stewart	set Becca Bellows	+2.3
34	17-17	WAKE	FSU×4	Kill	Nenu Kpea	set Emma Lilo	+2.1
35	17-18	FSU	FSU×4	Attack err	Lyla Stewart		+3.1
36	17-19	FSU	FSU×4	Ace	Florida St.		+2.8
37	17-20	FSU	FSU×4	Ace	Florida St.	aced Lyla Stewart	+2.2
38	18-20	FSU	WAKE	Kill	Laiya Ebo	set Emma Keeping	+1.2
39	19-20	WAKE	WAKE	Ace	Wake Forest	aced Victoria David	+2.6
40	19-21	WAKE	FSU×3	Attack err	Nenu Kpea		+2.2
41	19-22	FSU	FSU×3	Kill	Emma Lilo	set Nenu Kpea	+2.5
42	19-23	FSU	FSU×3	Attack err	Kyleene Filimaua		+1.4
43	20-23	FSU	WAKE	Kill	Laiya Ebo	set Emma Keeping	+0.5
44	20-24	WAKE	FSU	Kill	Kyleene Filimaua	set Callie Kieffer	+0.8
45	20-25	FSU	FSU	Attack err	Laiya Ebo		+0.3
Set 2
1	0-1	WAKE	FSU×4	Kill	Delaney Ewing	set Emma Lilo	+0.8
2	0-2	FSU	FSU×4	Ace	Florida St.	aced Amina Ndiaye	+1.1
3	0-3	FSU	FSU×4	Attack err	Ryleigh Whitekettle		+1.0
4	0-4	FSU	FSU×4	Blocked	Catherine Burke	blk Delaney Ewing	+0.8
5	1-4	FSU	WAKE	Kill	Amina Ndiaye	set Ava Roddey	+0.5
6	1-5	WAKE	FSU	Kill	Bailey Higgins	set Emma Lilo	+0.6
7	2-5	FSU	WAKE	Kill	Lyla Stewart	set Ava Roddey	+0.6
8	2-6	WAKE	FSU	Kill	Bailey Higgins	set Emma Lilo	+0.6
9	3-6	FSU	WAKE×3	Kill	Ryleigh Whitekettle	set Ava Roddey	+0.6
10	4-6	WAKE	WAKE×3	Attack err	Nenu Kpea		+1.0
11	5-6	WAKE	WAKE×3	Ace	Wake Forest		+1.2
12	5-7	WAKE	FSU	Attack err	Lyla Stewart		+0.8
13	6-7	FSU	WAKE	Kill	Sanaa Williams	set Nenu Kpea	+0.9
14	6-8	WAKE	FSU	Kill	Kyleene Filimaua	set Emma Lilo	+0.9
15	7-8	FSU	WAKE	Kill	Amina Ndiaye	set Emma Keeping	+0.9
16	8-8	WAKE	WAKE	Blocked	Kyleene Filimaua	blk Laiya Ebo, Catherine Burke	+1.5
17	8-9	WAKE	FSU	Serve err	Wake Forest		+1.0
18	9-9	FSU	WAKE	Kill	Laiya Ebo	set Emma Keeping	+1.1
19	9-10	WAKE	FSU	Kill	Bailey Higgins	set Emma Lilo	+1.1
20	10-10	FSU	WAKE	Serve err	Florida St.		+1.1
21	11-10	WAKE	WAKE	Kill	Lyla Stewart	set Andrea Roman	+1.8
22	11-11	WAKE	FSU	Attack err	Bailey Higgins		+1.2
23	12-11	FSU	WAKE	Kill	Catherine Burke	set Ava Roddey	+1.4
24	12-12	WAKE	FSU	Kill	Bailey Higgins	set Emma Lilo	+1.2
25	13-12	FSU	WAKE	Attack err	Emma Lilo		+1.4
26	13-13	WAKE	FSU	Serve err	Wake Forest		+1.3
27	14-13	FSU	WAKE	Kill	Lyla Stewart	set Emma Keeping	+1.5
28	14-14	WAKE	FSU×4	Kill	Sanaa Williams		+1.4
29	14-15	FSU	FSU×4	Kill	Kyleene Filimaua	set Emma Lilo	+1.9
30	14-16	FSU	FSU×4	Kill	Delaney Ewing	set Emma Lilo	+1.8
31	14-17	FSU	FSU×4	Ace	Florida St.	aced Andrea Roman	+1.5
32	15-17	FSU	WAKE	Kill	Laiya Ebo	set Emma Keeping	+0.9
33	16-17	WAKE	WAKE	Attack err	Kyleene Filimaua		+1.7
34	16-18	WAKE	FSU	Kill	Delaney Ewing	set Emma Lilo	+1.3
35	17-18	FSU	WAKE×3	Attack err	Amina Ndiaye		+1.3
36	18-18	WAKE	WAKE×3	Kill	Catherine Burke		+2.4
37	19-18	WAKE	WAKE×3	Ace	Wake Forest	aced Sofia Moss	+2.8
38	19-19	WAKE	FSU	Kill	Bailey Higgins	set Emma Lilo	+1.9
39	20-19	FSU	WAKE	Serve err	Florida St.		+2.2
40	21-19	WAKE	WAKE	Attack err	Bailey Higgins		+3.4
41	21-20	WAKE	FSU	Attack err	Lyla Stewart		+1.8
42	22-20	FSU	WAKE	Kill	Ryleigh Whitekettle	set Ava Roddey	+2.7
43	22-21	WAKE	FSU×5	Kill	Sofia Moss	set Emma Lilo	+1.9
44	22-22	FSU	FSU×5	Attack err	Ryleigh Whitekettle		+3.8
45	22-23	FSU	FSU×5	Kill	Sofia Moss	set Callie Kieffer	+4.2
46	22-24	FSU	FSU×5	Attack err	Lyla Stewart		+3.5
47	22-25	FSU	FSU×5	Kill	Sofia Moss	set Callie Kieffer	+1.7
Set 3
1	1-0	FSU	WAKE	Kill	Lyla Stewart	set Andrea Roman	+0.5
2	1-1	WAKE	FSU	Kill	Delaney Ewing	set Emma Lilo	+0.4
3	1-2	FSU	FSU	Attack err	Camille McCoy		+0.6
4	2-2	FSU	WAKE	Serve err	Florida St.		+0.4
5	2-3	WAKE	FSU	Kill	Sofia Moss	set Emma Lilo	+0.4
6	3-3	FSU	WAKE	Kill	Catherine Burke	set Emma Keeping	+0.5
7	3-4	WAKE	FSU	Kill	Nenu Kpea	set Emma Lilo	+0.4
8	4-4	FSU	WAKE	Attack err	Sofia Moss		+0.5
9	4-5	WAKE	FSU	Kill	Sofia Moss	set Emma Lilo	+0.4
10	5-5	FSU	WAKE	Kill	Catherine Burke	set Becca Bellows	+0.5
11	5-6	WAKE	FSU	Kill	Nenu Kpea	set Emma Lilo	+0.5
12	6-6	FSU	WAKE	Serve err	Florida St.		+0.5
13	6-7	WAKE	FSU	Kill	Kyleene Filimaua	set Emma Lilo	+0.5
14	7-7	FSU	WAKE	Serve err	Florida St.		+0.5
15	7-8	WAKE	FSU	Serve err	Wake Forest		+0.5
16	7-9	FSU	FSU	Ace	Florida St.		+0.7
17	8-9	FSU	WAKE	Serve err	Florida St.		+0.5
18	8-10	WAKE	FSU	Kill	Bailey Higgins	set Emma Lilo	+0.5
19	8-11	FSU	FSU	Attack err	Amina Ndiaye		+0.6
20	9-11	FSU	WAKE	Serve err	Florida St.		+0.4
21	10-11	WAKE	WAKE	Ace	Wake Forest		+0.7
22	10-12	WAKE	FSU	Kill	Nenu Kpea	set Emma Lilo	+0.5
23	10-13	FSU	FSU	Bad set	Becca Bellows		+0.6
24	11-13	FSU	WAKE	Kill	Ryleigh Whitekettle	set Becca Bellows	+0.4
25	11-14	WAKE	FSU	Kill	Nenu Kpea	set Emma Lilo	+0.4
26	11-15	FSU	FSU	Blocked	Lyla Stewart	blk Nenu Kpea	+0.5
27	12-15	FSU	WAKE	Kill	Catherine Burke	set Becca Bellows	+0.3
28	13-15	WAKE	WAKE	Kill	Lyla Stewart	set Becca Bellows	+0.6
29	13-16	WAKE	FSU	Serve err	Wake Forest		+0.5
30	14-16	FSU	WAKE×4	Kill	Ryleigh Whitekettle	set Becca Bellows	+0.4
31	15-16	WAKE	WAKE×4	Attack err	Bailey Higgins		+0.8
32	16-16	WAKE	WAKE×4	Attack err	Kyleene Filimaua		+1.0
33	17-16	WAKE	WAKE×4	Kill	Camille McCoy	set Emma Keeping	+1.2
34	17-17	WAKE	FSU×3	Serve err	Wake Forest		+0.8
35	17-18	FSU	FSU×3	Attack err	Bailey Higgins		+1.2
36	17-19	FSU	FSU×3	Blocked	Camille McCoy	blk Bailey Higgins, Delaney Ewing	+1.0
37	18-19	FSU	WAKE×3	Kill	Lyla Stewart	set Andrea Roman	+0.7
38	19-19	WAKE	WAKE×3	Attack err	Kyleene Filimaua		+1.3
39	20-19	WAKE	WAKE×3	Blocked	Kyleene Filimaua	blk Camille McCoy, Laiya Ebo	+1.5
40	20-20	WAKE	FSU	Kill	Bailey Higgins	set Emma Lilo	+1.0
41	20-21	FSU	FSU	Kill	Bailey Higgins	set Emma Lilo	+1.5
42	21-21	FSU	WAKE	Kill	Laiya Ebo	set Emma Keeping	+1.1
43	21-22	WAKE	FSU	Kill	Bailey Higgins	set Emma Lilo	+1.2
44	21-23	FSU	FSU	Ace	Florida St.		+1.5
45	22-23	FSU	WAKE	Kill	Laiya Ebo	set Emma Keeping	+0.7
46	22-24	WAKE	FSU	Attack err	Ryleigh Whitekettle		+1.2
47	23-24	FSU	WAKE	Kill	Ryleigh Whitekettle	set Becca Bellows	+0.7
48	23-25	WAKE	FSU	Kill	Nenu Kpea	set Becca Bellows	+1.5

Score shown after each rally, Wake Forest first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).

Florida St. def. Wake Forest 3–0

All three sets were decided by five or fewer, and Florida St. won each one, leading every phase.