Final · 5 setsFri, Nov 6, 2026Watch on ACCNX

California def. Florida St. 3–2

RallyIQ pre-match: Florida St. 51.7% · upsetLocked before first serve (Nov 6, 4:55 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

California won at Florida St. 3-2 (22-25, 20-25, 25-22, 25-18, 15-8) on Fri, Nov 6, 2026. Abby Zimmerman led California with 17 kills; Florida St.'s Kyleene Filimaua had a match-high 23.

Data through · final Nov 6

Set12345Sets
CAL22202525153
FSU2525221882

Match story · written from the play-by-play

12 blocks, led by Cari Bohm: California won it at the net.

3 stretches decided it. Percentages are California's RallyIQ win probability before and after each. Pre-match, Florida St. was RallyIQ's 52% pick.

  1. Turning point 1: Set 2 · California 11–6 Florida St.

    Down 6–11, Florida St. scored 8 straight to lead 14–11.

    California 43% → 20%

  2. Turning point 2: Set 4 · California 9–9 Florida St.

    California scored 5 straight to go from 9–9 to a 14–9 lead.

    California 25% → 43%

  3. Turning point 3: Set 5 · California 0–0 Florida St.

    California opened the set with 9 straight points for a 9–0 lead. The match swung to California.

    California 48% → 99%

Florida St. above 50California belowMax swing 9.3%

CaliforniaFlorida St.

Sideout %
California 57.1·Florida St. 52.3
Break %
California 47.7·Florida St. 42.9
Hitting
California .242·Florida St. .167
Longest run
California 9·Florida St. 8
Blocks
California 12·Florida St. 92 BS · 20 BA vs 6 BS · 6 BA

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Florida St. above 50 · California below
S1S2S3S4S510050100+9.3% CALrally 205 · set 5

Biggest swing: 9.3% to California — set 5, CAL 1-0 FSU. Kill by Abby Zimmerman (set by Sophia Johnson). FSU win probability 52% → 43%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

CAL 50.4%49.6% FSU

California wins

3-0
12.7%
3-1
18.9%
3-2
18.8%

Florida St. wins

3-0
12.3%
3-1
18.6%
3-2
18.7%
CAL break %
39.3% vs this opp
FSU break %
39.2% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01

    Kill by Abby Zimmerman (set by Sophia Johnson)

    Set 5 · CAL 1-0 FSU · CAL 48% → 57%

  2. 02
    CaliforniaAce+9.3%

    California ace on Payton Whalen

    Set 5 · CAL 2-0 FSU · CAL 57% → 66%

  3. 03
    Bailey HigginsAttack error+8.7%

    Attack error by Bailey Higgins

    Set 5 · CAL 3-0 FSU · CAL 66% → 75%

  4. 04

    Kill by Abby Zimmerman (set by Anna Flores)

    Set 5 · CAL 4-0 FSU · CAL 75% → 82%

  5. 05

    Kill by Abby Zimmerman (set by Francesca Popescu)

    Set 5 · CAL 5-0 FSU · CAL 82% → 89%

  6. 06
    Ashley LiAttack error+5.0%

    Attack error by Ashley Li

    Set 2 · CAL 18-20 FSU · FSU 74% → 79%

  7. 07

    Bailey Higgins stuffed by Dominique Phills & Cari Bohm

    Set 3 · CAL 24-22 FSU · CAL 16% → 21%

  8. 08
    Cari BohmKill+4.7%

    Kill by Cari Bohm (set by Emma Lilo)

    Set 2 · CAL 18-18 FSU · CAL 24% → 29%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
5171056.12501418014321
512020.60001311031.514.5
58116.43800010073.511.5
510528.1790022002111
54016.25042111001227
5000–101610000
5001.000022510002
5001.0002001610000
47316.25000040010.57.5
14Elise LauL/DS
4000–011100001
23211.09101010010.54.5
2000–100000000
1000–000000000
Team totals6121165.2424671465722012107
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
5231056.232012130111.525.5
514538.23710110012216
58419.211013100009
54721-.143001613037
56116.313000000217
5129-.1114630170010.54.5
5002.000321810002
5001.000001330000
5000–3001100000
2000–001000000
2000–000000000
1000–000001011
1000–000000000
Team totals5629162.1675371069766998

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 9 CAL · FSU 8

Set 1

22-25

Longest run 3 CALFSU 4

Set 2

20-25

Longest run 4 CALFSU 8

Set 3

25-22

Longest run 3 CALFSU 4

Set 4

25-18

Longest run 5 CALFSU 2

Set 5

15-8

Longest run 9 CALFSU 5

Bars above the line = Florida St. leads, below = California leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

California

SlotSideout %Break %
1
50%6/12
69%11/16
2
46%6/13
50%6/12
3
100%6/6
14%1/7
4
45%5/11
58%7/12
5
60%3/5
17%1/6
6
30%3/10
40%2/5
All
51%29/57
48%28/58

Florida St.

SlotSideout %Break %
1
33%6/18
71%10/14
2
60%6/10
50%6/12
3
75%6/8
40%4/10
4
45%5/11
33%3/9
5
57%4/7
43%3/7
6
75%3/4
40%2/5
All
52%30/58
49%28/57

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 5 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

205 rallies

#CAL-FSUSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
11-0FSUCAL×3KillAshley Liset Anna Flores+1.7
22-0CALCAL×3BlockedKyleene Filimauablk Sawyer Thomsen+2.7
33-0CALCAL×3KillSawyer Thomsenset Anna Flores+2.6
43-1CALFSUKillDelaney Ewingset Emma Lilo+1.5
54-1FSUCALKillAbby Zimmermanset Anna Flores+1.7
64-2CALFSUServe errCalifornia+1.5
75-2FSUCALKillGrace Agolliset Anna Flores+1.7
85-3CALFSUServe errCalifornia+1.6
95-4FSUFSUAttack errAbby Zimmerman+2.7
106-4FSUCALKillCari Bohmset Anna Flores+1.9
116-5CALFSUKillNenu Kpeaset Emma Lilo+1.8
127-5FSUCAL×3KillCari Bohmset Anna Flores+1.9
138-5CALCAL×3KillAshley Li+2.9
149-5CALCAL×3KillGrace Agolliset Sophia Johnson+2.6
159-6CALFSUKillKyleene Filimauaset Emma Lilo+1.4
1610-6FSUCALKillAshley Liset Anna Flores+1.7
1711-6CALCALKillSawyer Thomsenset Anna Flores+2.3
1811-7CALFSU×4KillKyleene Filimauaset Emma Lilo+1.2
1911-8FSUFSU×4KillBailey Higginsset Emma Lilo+2.3
2011-9FSUFSU×4Attack errAshley Li+2.7
2111-10FSUFSU×4KillDelaney Ewingset Emma Lilo+3.1
2212-10FSUCALKillSawyer Thomsenset Francesca Popescu+2.2
2312-11CALFSU×4KillDelaney Ewingset Emma Lilo+2.1
2412-12FSUFSU×4BlockedAshley Liblk Payton Whalen+3.6
2512-13FSUFSU×4AceKyleene Filimaua+3.7
2612-14FSUFSU×4BlockedAbby Zimmermanblk Delaney Ewing, Bailey Higgins+3.7
2713-14FSUCALAttack errKyleene Filimaua+2.2
2813-15CALFSUServe errCalifornia+2.4
2914-15FSUCALKillAbby Zimmermanset Anna Flores+2.2
3015-15CALCALBlockedPayton Whalenblk Abby Zimmerman, Cari Bohm+4.0
3115-16CALFSU×3KillBailey Higginsset Emma Lilo+2.7
3215-17FSUFSU×3KillKyleene Filimauaset Emma Lilo+4.2
3315-18FSUFSU×3BlockedAbby Zimmermanblk Payton Whalen+3.8
3416-18FSUCALKillCari Bohmset Anna Flores+1.9
3516-19CALFSUAttack errGrace Agolli+2.5
3617-19FSUCALAttack errNenu Kpea+1.9
3717-20CALFSUKillKyleene Filimauaset Emma Lilo+2.6
3818-20FSUCALServe errNenu Kpea+1.9
3918-21CALFSUKillKyleene Filimauaset Emma Lilo+2.7
4019-21FSUCALKillAnna Flores+1.8
4119-22CALFSUKillBailey Higginsset Emma Lilo+2.8
4220-22FSUCALKillSawyer Thomsenset Anna Flores+1.7
4320-23CALFSUKillPayton Whalenset Victoria David+2.9
4421-23FSUCALServe errVictoria David+1.5
4521-24CALFSUKillNenu Kpeaset Emma Lilo+2.9
4622-24FSUCALKillCari Bohmset Anna Flores+1.0
4722-25CALFSUServe errCalifornia+2.5
Set 2
11-0CALCALKillSawyer Thomsenset Anna Flores+2.6
21-1CALFSUServe errCalifornia+1.7
31-2FSUFSUKillBailey Higginsset Emma Lilo+2.7
42-2FSUCAL×3BlockedBailey Higginsblk Sawyer Thomsen, Grace Agolli+1.7
53-2CALCAL×3KillGrace Agolli+2.8
64-2CALCAL×3AceCalifornia+2.8
74-3CALFSUKillPayton Whalenset Emma Lilo+1.7
85-3FSUCALKillAbby Zimmermanset Anna Flores+1.8
95-4CALFSUServe errCalifornia+1.7
106-4FSUCAL×4BlockedPayton Whalenblk Anna Flores, Cari Bohm+1.8
117-4CALCAL×4AceCalifornia+2.8
128-4CALCAL×4Attack errEmma Lilo+2.5
139-4CALCAL×4BlockedPayton Whalenblk Anna Flores, Cari Bohm+2.2
149-5CALFSUKillNenu Kpeaset Emma Lilo+1.2
1510-5FSUCALKillAshley Liset Anna Flores+1.4
1610-6CALFSUServe errCalifornia+1.2
1711-6FSUCALBlockedKyleene Filimauablk Anna Flores+1.4
1811-7CALFSU×8KillDelaney Ewingset Emma Lilo+1.1
1911-8FSUFSU×8KillKyleene Filimauaset Maile Chan+2.2
2011-9FSUFSU×8KillBailey Higginsset Emma Lilo+2.7
2111-10FSUFSU×8KillBailey Higginsset Emma Lilo+3.1
2211-11FSUFSU×8AceEmma Liloaced Francesca Popescu+3.4
2311-12FSUFSU×8KillKyleene Filimauaset Emma Lilo+3.5
2411-13FSUFSU×8KillBailey Higginsset Emma Lilo+3.5
2511-14FSUFSU×8BlockedAbby Zimmermanblk Delaney Ewing, Bailey Higgins+3.2
2612-14FSUCALKillAbby Zimmermanset Anna Flores+1.8
2712-15CALFSUKillKyleene Filimauaset Emma Lilo+2.1
2812-16FSUFSUAttack errGrace Agolli+2.8
2913-16FSUCALServe errKyleene Filimaua+1.4
3013-17CALFSUKillDelaney Ewingset Emma Lilo+1.8
3114-17FSUCALKillAbby Zimmermanset Anna Flores+1.4
3215-17CALCALAttack errNenu Kpea+2.9
3315-18CALFSUKillNenu Kpeaset Emma Lilo+2.3
3416-18FSUCAL×3Serve errBailey Higgins+1.9
3517-18CALCAL×3Attack errPayton Whalen+3.9
3618-18CALCAL×3KillCari Bohmset Emma Lilo+4.7
3718-19CALFSU×4KillNenu Kpeaset Emma Lilo+3.3
3818-20FSUFSU×4Attack errAshley Li+5.0
3918-21FSUFSU×4Attack errCari Bohm+4.2
4018-22FSUFSU×4KillNenu Kpeaset Emma Lilo+2.8
4119-22FSUCALKillAshley Liset Sophia Johnson+0.9
4220-22CALCALAceCaliforniaaced Caylan Russ+2.7
4320-23CALFSU×3KillNenu Kpeaset Emma Lilo+2.8
4420-24FSUFSU×3BlockedAbby Zimmermanblk Kelsey Perry+2.3
4520-25FSUFSU×3AceNenu Kpeaaced Sawyer Thomsen+0.6
Set 3
10-1FSUFSUKillKyleene Filimauaset Emma Lilo+1.7
21-1FSUCALKillSawyer Thomsenset Anna Flores+1.1
31-2CALFSU×3KillBailey Higginsset Emma Lilo+1.1
41-3FSUFSU×3KillEmma Liloset Anna Flores+1.7
51-4FSUFSU×3AceVictoria David+1.6
62-4FSUCALKillSawyer Thomsenset Anna Flores+1.0
72-5CALFSUServe errCalifornia+1.1
83-5FSUCALKillAbby Zimmermanset Anna Flores+1.0
94-5CALCALAttack errKyleene Filimaua+1.7
104-6CALFSUServe errCalifornia+1.2
115-6FSUCALKillAnna Flores+1.1
126-6CALCALBlockedNenu Kpeablk Ashley Li, Cari Bohm+1.9
136-7CALFSUKillKyleene Filimauaset Emma Lilo+1.2
147-7FSUCALKillAshley Liset Anna Flores+1.2
158-7CALCALAttack errKyleene Filimaua+2.0
168-8CALFSU×4KillBailey Higginsset Emma Lilo+1.3
178-9FSUFSU×4KillKyleene Filimauaset Emma Lilo+2.0
188-10FSUFSU×4KillKyleene Filimauaset Emma Lilo+2.0
198-11FSUFSU×4Attack errAbby Zimmerman+1.9
209-11FSUCALKillAshley Liset Anna Flores+1.1
219-12CALFSUKillDelaney Ewingset Emma Lilo+1.2
2210-12FSUCALServe errKyleene Filimaua+1.1
2310-13CALFSUKillBailey Higginsset Emma Lilo+1.3
2410-14FSUFSUBlockedDominique Phillsblk Bailey Higgins+1.7
2511-14FSUCAL×3Attack errBailey Higgins+0.9
2612-14CALCAL×3BlockedPayton Whalenblk Cari Bohm, Abby Zimmerman+1.8
2713-14CALCAL×3Attack errPayton Whalen+2.1
2813-15CALFSUKillPayton Whalenset Victoria David+1.5
2914-15FSUCAL×3KillAbby Zimmermanset Anna Flores+1.4
3015-15CALCAL×3KillAnna Floresset Emma Lilo+2.5
3116-15CALCAL×3AceCaliforniaaced Victoria David+2.7
3216-16CALFSUKillPayton Whalenset Victoria David+1.7
3317-16CAL
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+1.8
3418-16CALCALKillAnna Floresset Emma Lilo+2.8
3518-17CALFSUKillKyleene Filimauaset Emma Lilo+1.6
3619-17FSUCALServe errNenu Kpea+1.9
3719-18CALFSUKillKyleene Filimauaset Emma Lilo+1.7
3819-19FSUFSUAceEmma Lilo+3.2
3920-19FSUCALKillSawyer Thomsenset Anna Flores+2.3
4020-20CALFSUKillKyleene Filimauaset Emma Lilo+2.2
4120-21FSUFSUKillBailey Higginsset Emma Lilo+3.9
4221-21FSUCALKillSawyer Thomsenset Portia Sherman+2.4
4322-21CALCALKillAbby Zimmermanset Anna Flores+4.5
4422-22CALFSUAttack errDominique Phills+2.7
4523-22FSUCAL×3KillAbby Zimmermanset Anna Flores+3.4
4624-22CALCAL×3BlockedBailey Higginsblk Dominique Phills, Cari Bohm+5.0
4725-22CALCAL×3Attack errNenu Kpea+2.6
Set 4
10-1CALFSUAttack errAshley Li+2.2
20-2FSUFSUBlockedAshley Liblk Kyleene Filimaua+3.5
31-2FSUCALServe errCaylan Russ+2.1
41-3FSU
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+2.3
51-4FSUFSUAttack errKyleene Filimaua+3.4
62-4FSUCAL×3KillDominique Phillsset Anna Flores+2.0
73-4CALCAL×3KillCari Bohm+3.5
84-4CALCAL×3Attack errKyleene Filimaua+3.7
94-5CALFSUBlockedDominique Phillsblk Emma Lilo, Kyleene Filimaua+2.4
105-5FSUCALKillAbby Zimmermanset Abby Zimmerman+2.4
116-5CALCALKillDominique Phills+4.0
126-6CALFSUServe errCalifornia+2.5
137-6FSUCALKillDominique Phillsset Anna Flores+2.6
147-7CALFSUKillBailey Higginsset Emma Lilo+2.6
158-7FSUCALKillCari Bohmset Anna Flores+2.7
168-8CALFSUBlockedAbby Zimmermanblk Payton Whalen+2.6
179-8FSUCALKillAshley Liset Anna Flores+2.8
189-9CALFSUKillPayton Whalenset Maile Chan+2.7
1910-9FSUCAL×5Serve errPayton Whalen+2.8
2011-9CALCAL×5KillDominique Phillsset Nenu Kpea+4.4
2112-9CALCAL×5AceCaliforniaaced Caylan Russ+4.2
2213-9CALCAL×5KillDominique Phillsset Anna Flores+3.7
2314-9CALCAL×5KillDominique Phills+3.0
2414-10CALFSUKillKyleene Filimauaset Bailey Higgins+1.5
2515-10FSUCALServe errNenu Kpea+1.9
2615-11CALFSUServe errCalifornia+1.4
2715-12FSUFSUAceEmma Liloaced Siena MacCudden+3.0
2816-12FSUCALKillAbby Zimmermanset Anna Flores+2.5
2917-12CALCALAttack errDelaney Ewing+3.0
3017-13CALFSUKillKyleene Filimauaset Emma Lilo+1.3
3117-14FSUFSUKillBailey Higginsset Maile Chan+3.0
3218-14FSUCAL×3KillDominique Phillsset Anna Flores+2.5
3319-14CALCAL×3Attack errBailey Higgins+2.9
3420-14CALCAL×3Attack errPayton Whalen+1.8
3520-15CALFSUServe errCalifornia+0.6
3620-16FSUFSUAceVictoria Davidaced Sophia Johnson+1.6
3721-16FSUCALKillAshley Liset Anna Flores+1.7
3821-17CALFSUKillBailey Higginsset Emma Lilo+0.9
3922-17FSUCAL×3Serve errCallie Kieffer+1.5
4023-17CALCAL×3KillAbby Zimmerman+1.1
4124-17CALCAL×3KillAbby Zimmermanset Anna Flores+0.3
4224-18CALFSUServe errCalifornia·
4325-18FSUCALKillSawyer Thomsenset Anna Flores+1.6
Set 5
11-0CALCAL×9KillAbby Zimmermanset Sophia Johnson+9.3
22-0CALCAL×9AceCaliforniaaced Payton Whalen+9.3
33-0CALCAL×9Attack errBailey Higgins+8.7
44-0CALCAL×9KillAbby Zimmermanset Anna Flores+7.6
55-0CALCAL×9KillAbby Zimmermanset Francesca Popescu+6.2
66-0CALCAL×9BlockedKyleene Filimauablk Sawyer Thomsen, Abby Zimmerman+4.6
77-0CALCAL×9Attack errKyleene Filimaua+3.1
88-0CALCAL×9KillSawyer Thomsenset Anna Flores+1.9
99-0CALCAL×9KillAshley Liset Anna Flores+1.0
109-1CALFSUAttack errAbby Zimmerman+0.3
119-2FSUFSUKillKyleene Filimauaset Emma Lilo+0.8
1210-2FSUCAL×3KillAbby Zimmermanset Anna Flores+0.9
1311-2CALCAL×3AceCaliforniaaced Caylan Russ+0.6
1412-2CALCAL×3Attack errKyleene Filimaua+0.2
1512-3CALFSU×5Serve errCalifornia·
1612-4FSUFSU×5KillKyleene Filimauaset Victoria David+0.1
1712-5FSUFSU×5Attack errAbby Zimmerman+0.3
1812-6FSUFSU×5KillKyleene Filimauaset Emma Lilo+0.6
1912-7FSUFSU×5KillKyleene Filimauaset Emma Lilo+1.1
2013-7FSUCALKillSawyer Thomsenset Anna Flores+1.4
2113-8CALFSUKillKyleene Filimauaset Emma Lilo+0.4
2214-8FSUCALAttack errSiena MacCudden+0.9
2315-8CALCALKillCari Bohmset Anna Flores+0.3

Score shown after each rally, California first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).