FinalTue, Sep 1, 2026

AwayBIG-WEST

0:3

HomeWCC

San Francisco def. CSU Bakersfield 3–0

(25-18, 25-18, 25-16)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
CSUBAK	18	18	16	0
S FRAN	25	25	25	3

RallyIQ model

Win probability

S FRAN above 50 · CSUBAK below

Biggest swing: 4.3% to San Francisco — set 2, CSUBAK 17-19 S FRAN. Attack error by Nele Broszat. S FRAN win probability 75% → 80%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

CSUBAK 46.0%54.0% S FRAN

CSU Bakersfield wins

3-0

10.9%

3-1

17.1%

3-2

18.0%

San Francisco wins

3-0

14.3%

3-1

20.4%

3-2

19.3%

CSUBAK break %: 41.1% vs this opp
S FRAN break %: 41.8% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Nele BroszatAttack error+4.3%
Attack error by Nele Broszat
Set 2 · CSUBAK 17-19 S FRAN · S FRAN 75% → 80%
02
Jordan SmartBad set+4.1%
Bad set by Jordan Smart
Set 2 · CSUBAK 17-17 S FRAN · CSUBAK 24% → 28%
03
Katariina KorhonenKill+3.7%
Kill by Katariina Korhonen (set by Jordan Smart)
Set 2 · CSUBAK 17-20 S FRAN · S FRAN 80% → 83%
04
Maeve BaileyAttack error+3.2%
Maeve Bailey stuffed by Defne Yanik
Set 2 · CSUBAK 14-15 S FRAN · CSUBAK 21% → 24%
05
Katariina KorhonenKill+3.1%
Kill by Katariina Korhonen (set by True Takemoto)
Set 2 · CSUBAK 17-18 S FRAN · S FRAN 72% → 75%
06
Leylah DuranAttack error+3.0%
Leylah Duran stuffed by Katariina Korhonen
Set 2 · CSUBAK 9-10 S FRAN · S FRAN 71% → 74%
07
Anna BacchinAttack error+3.0%
Attack error by Anna Bacchin
Set 2 · CSUBAK 9-11 S FRAN · S FRAN 74% → 77%
08
Katariina KorhonenKill+3.0%
Kill by Katariina Korhonen (set by True Takemoto)
Set 1 · CSUBAK 7-8 S FRAN · S FRAN 53% → 56%

Official NCAA box

Box score

CSU Bakersfieldaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
7Suelen LimaOH	3	9	2	25	.280	0	0	1	9	2	0	0	0	9
6Anna BacchinOH	3	6	6	29	.000	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	7
14Defne YanikMB	3	2	1	8	.125	1	0	0	3	0	1	1	1.5	3.5
19Leylah DuranMB	3	2	1	8	.125	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.5	2.5
1Luiza Da CruzS	3	1	0	2	.500	13	0	2	3	0	0	0	0	1
9Nele BroszatMB	2	3	1	6	.333	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1.5	4.5
20Jordyn Waite-WardMB	3	5	2	14	.214	0	0	0	3	0	0	1	0.5	5.5
5Analiese GaglianoL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	1	1	0	6	0	0	0	0	1
11Boden LiljedahlL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
15Samantha CapinpinS	2	0	1	1	-1.000	6	0	1	4	0	0	0	0	0
8Taly AcherboimL/DS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	0	0
18Reese JacksonMB	1	0	2	2	-1.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
3Ana Franca BenjaminOH	1	0	0	1	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
10Ella PallagiS	1	0	0	1	.000	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
12Ema ThompsonS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
2Torrin HigginbothamOH	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		28	16	97	.124	23	2	7	35	6	2	4	4	52

San Franciscohome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
12Katariina KorhonenOH	3	13	2	26	.423	0	1	0	7	0	1	0	1	15
21Petra FritzOH	3	12	3	26	.346	0	1	2	5	1	0	1	0.5	13.5
14Emma NeukirchenMB	3	7	1	16	.375	1	0	1	1	0	1	1	1.5	8.5
16Maeve BaileyMB	3	6	3	13	.231	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	1	7
19Hokulani PerezMB	3	1	2	4	-.250	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	1
4Adelynn LegatesS	3	0	0	1	.000	14	1	1	10	0	0	0	0	1
8Anica BobicOH	3	6	1	13	.385	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.5	6.5
13Jordan SmartS	3	0	0	0	–	15	3	1	11	0	0	0	0	3
11True TakemotoDS	2	0	0	0	–	8	0	0	4	1	0	0	0	0
15Simona IvanovaMB	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	0.5
1Talula LenoirOH	1	0	1	1	-1.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
18Laura AmaroL/DS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	2	6	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		45	13	100	.320	39	6	7	47	2	2	6	5	75

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 4 CSUBAK · S FRAN 7

Set 1

18-25

Longest run 3 CSUBAKS FRAN 3

Set 2

18-25

Longest run 4 CSUBAKS FRAN 7

Set 3

16-25

Longest run 3 CSUBAKS FRAN 4

Bars above the line = San Francisco leads, below = CSU Bakersfield leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

CSU Bakersfield

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	54%7/13	13%1/8
2	55%6/11	46%6/13
3	67%6/9	45%5/11
4	60%6/10	25%2/8
5	40%6/15	0%0/6
6	33%5/15	25%2/8
All	49%36/73	30%16/54

San Francisco

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	78%7/9	58%7/12
2	47%7/15	36%4/11
3	67%6/9	40%4/10
4	86%6/7	50%6/12
5	86%6/7	14%1/7
6	86%6/7	71%15/21
All	70%38/54	51%37/73

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

127 rallies

Rally log

#	CSUBAK-S FRAN	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	0-1	CSUBAK	S FRAN	Serve err	CSUBAK server		+1.8
2	0-2	S FRAN	S FRAN	Ace	S FRAN server	aced Suelen Lima	+2.5
3	1-2	S FRAN	CSUBAK	Attack err	Petra Fritz		+1.7
4	2-2	CSUBAK	CSUBAK	Kill	Defne Yanik	set Luiza Da Cruz	+2.6
5	2-3	CSUBAK	S FRAN	Kill	Petra Fritz	set Adelynn Legates	+1.9
6	2-4	S FRAN	S FRAN	Kill	Petra Fritz	set Emma Neukirchen	+2.6
7	3-4	S FRAN	CSUBAK×3	Attack err	Maeve Bailey		+1.8
8	4-4	CSUBAK	CSUBAK×3	Ace	CSUBAK server	aced True Takemoto	+2.7
9	5-4	CSUBAK	CSUBAK×3	Kill	Nele Broszat		+2.8
10	5-5	CSUBAK	S FRAN	Kill	Maeve Bailey	set Adelynn Legates	+2.0
11	6-5	S FRAN	CSUBAK	Kill	Nele Broszat	set Ella Pallagi	+2.0
12	6-6	CSUBAK	S FRAN	Kill	Maeve Bailey	set Jordan Smart	+2.0
13	7-6	S FRAN	CSUBAK	Attack err	Katariina Korhonen	blk Jordyn Waite-Ward, Nele Broszat	+2.1
14	7-7	CSUBAK	S FRAN×3	Kill	Katariina Korhonen	set Jordan Smart	+2.1
15	7-8	S FRAN	S FRAN×3	Kill	Katariina Korhonen	set True Takemoto	+3.0
16	7-9	S FRAN	S FRAN×3	Kill	Anica Bobic	set Jordan Smart	+2.9
17	8-9	S FRAN	CSUBAK	Kill	Jordyn Waite-Ward	set Samantha Capinpin	+2.0
18	8-10	CSUBAK	S FRAN	Kill	Anica Bobic	set Jordan Smart	+2.1
19	8-11	S FRAN	S FRAN	Attack err	Jordyn Waite-Ward		+2.8
20	9-11	S FRAN	CSUBAK	Kill	Defne Yanik	set Samantha Capinpin	+1.8
21	9-12	CSUBAK	S FRAN	Attack err	Anna Bacchin	blk Emma Neukirchen	+2.1
22	9-13	S FRAN	S FRAN	Kill	Petra Fritz	set Adelynn Legates	+2.6
23	10-13	S FRAN	CSUBAK	Attack err	Petra Fritz		+1.5
24	11-13	CSUBAK	CSUBAK	Kill	Suelen Lima	set Analiese Gagliano	+2.7
25	11-14	CSUBAK	S FRAN	Kill	Petra Fritz	set Adelynn Legates	+2.2
26	12-14	S FRAN	CSUBAK	Kill	Leylah Duran	set Luiza Da Cruz	+1.9
27	12-15	CSUBAK	S FRAN	Kill	Maeve Bailey	set Adelynn Legates	+2.3
28	12-16	S FRAN	S FRAN	Ace	S FRAN server	aced Anna Bacchin	+2.7
29	13-16	S FRAN	CSUBAK	Kill	Luiza Da Cruz		+1.6
30	13-17	CSUBAK	S FRAN	Kill	Anica Bobic	set Jordan Smart	+2.0
31	14-17	S FRAN	CSUBAK	Serve err	S FRAN server		+1.5
32	14-18	CSUBAK	S FRAN×3	Kill	Maeve Bailey	set Jordan Smart	+2.0
33	14-19	S FRAN	S FRAN×3	Kill	Emma Neukirchen	set Anica Bobic	+2.1
34	14-20	S FRAN	S FRAN×3	Kill	Katariina Korhonen	set True Takemoto	+1.4
35	15-20	S FRAN	CSUBAK	Kill	Suelen Lima		+0.6
36	15-21	CSUBAK	S FRAN	Kill	Anica Bobic	set Suelen Lima	+0.9
37	15-22	S FRAN	S FRAN	Attack err	Defne Yanik		+0.6
38	16-22	S FRAN	CSUBAK	Kill	Jordyn Waite-Ward	set Samantha Capinpin	+0.2
39	17-22	CSUBAK	CSUBAK	Attack err	Hokulani Perez		+0.5
40	17-23	CSUBAK	S FRAN	Serve err	CSUBAK server		+0.6
41	17-24	S FRAN	S FRAN	Kill	Petra Fritz	set Adelynn Legates	+0.3
42	18-24	S FRAN	CSUBAK	Kill	Anna Bacchin	set Luiza Da Cruz	+0.0
43	18-25	CSUBAK	S FRAN	Serve err	CSUBAK server		+0.1
Set 2
1	1-0	S FRAN	CSUBAK	Kill	Anna Bacchin	set Luiza Da Cruz	+1.7
2	1-1	CSUBAK	S FRAN	Kill	Katariina Korhonen	set True Takemoto	+1.7
3	2-1	S FRAN	CSUBAK×4	Kill	Anna Bacchin	set Luiza Da Cruz	+1.8
4	3-1	CSUBAK	CSUBAK×4	Kill	Anna Bacchin	set Luiza Da Cruz	+2.5
5	4-1	CSUBAK	CSUBAK×4	Attack err	Petra Fritz	blk Defne Yanik, Leylah Duran	+2.4
6	5-1	CSUBAK	CSUBAK×4	Kill	Suelen Lima	set Boden Liljedahl	+2.3
7	5-2	CSUBAK	S FRAN	Kill	Hokulani Perez	set Adelynn Legates	+1.5
8	6-2	S FRAN	CSUBAK	Kill	Suelen Lima	set Luiza Da Cruz	+1.7
9	6-3	CSUBAK	S FRAN×4	Attack err	Anna Bacchin		+1.5
10	6-4	S FRAN	S FRAN×4	Attack err	Samantha Capinpin		+2.4
11	6-5	S FRAN	S FRAN×4	Kill	Petra Fritz	set True Takemoto	+2.6
12	6-6	S FRAN	S FRAN×4	Ace	S FRAN server	aced Team	+2.7
13	7-6	S FRAN	CSUBAK	Kill	Suelen Lima	set Samantha Capinpin	+2.0
14	7-7	CSUBAK	S FRAN	Kill	Petra Fritz	set True Takemoto	+2.0
15	8-7	S FRAN	CSUBAK	Serve err	S FRAN server		+2.1
16	8-8	CSUBAK	S FRAN	Serve err	CSUBAK server		+2.0
17	9-8	S FRAN	CSUBAK	Kill	Jordyn Waite-Ward	set Samantha Capinpin	+2.1
18	9-9	CSUBAK	S FRAN×4	Kill	Anica Bobic	set Luiza Da Cruz	+2.1
19	9-10	S FRAN	S FRAN×4	Attack err	Leylah Duran	blk Katariina Korhonen	+3.0
20	9-11	S FRAN	S FRAN×4	Attack err	Anna Bacchin		+3.0
21	9-12	S FRAN	S FRAN×4	Serve err	S FRAN server		+2.8
22	10-12	S FRAN	CSUBAK	Kill	Nele Broszat	set Luiza Da Cruz	+1.8
23	11-12	CSUBAK	CSUBAK	Attack err	Katariina Korhonen		+2.9
24	11-13	CSUBAK	S FRAN	Kill	Emma Neukirchen	set Adelynn Legates	+2.3
25	11-14	S FRAN	S FRAN	Kill	Emma Neukirchen	set True Takemoto	+3.0
26	12-14	S FRAN	CSUBAK	Attack err	Hokulani Perez	blk Nele Broszat	+1.9
27	12-15	CSUBAK	S FRAN	Serve err	CSUBAK server		+2.2
28	13-15	S FRAN	CSUBAK	Kill	Suelen Lima	set Luiza Da Cruz	+1.9
29	14-15	CSUBAK	CSUBAK	Attack err	Maeve Bailey	blk Defne Yanik	+3.2
30	14-16	CSUBAK	S FRAN	Serve err	CSUBAK server		+2.6
31	15-16	S FRAN	CSUBAK	Serve err	S FRAN server		+2.4
32	15-17	CSUBAK	S FRAN	Kill	Petra Fritz	set Jordan Smart	+2.7
33	16-17	S FRAN	CSUBAK	Kill	Jordyn Waite-Ward	set Samantha Capinpin	+2.5
34	17-17	CSUBAK	CSUBAK	Bad set	Jordan Smart		+4.1
35	17-18	CSUBAK	S FRAN×7	Kill	Katariina Korhonen	set True Takemoto	+3.1
36	17-19	S FRAN	S FRAN×7	Attack err	Nele Broszat		+4.3
37	17-20	S FRAN	S FRAN×7	Kill	Katariina Korhonen	set Jordan Smart	+3.7
38	17-21	S FRAN	S FRAN×7	Kill	Anica Bobic	set Jordan Smart	+2.8
39	17-22	S FRAN	S FRAN×7	Kill	Katariina Korhonen	set True Takemoto	+1.7
40	17-23	S FRAN	S FRAN×7	Kill	Emma Neukirchen	set Samantha Capinpin	+0.8
41	17-24	S FRAN	S FRAN×7	Kill	Katariina Korhonen	set Jordan Smart	+0.3
42	18-24	S FRAN	CSUBAK	Kill	Anna Bacchin	set Defne Yanik	+0.0
43	18-25	CSUBAK	S FRAN	Kill	Katariina Korhonen	set Jordan Smart	+0.1
Set 3
1	0-1	CSUBAK	S FRAN	Kill	Katariina Korhonen	set Adelynn Legates	+1.1
2	1-1	S FRAN	CSUBAK×3	Kill	Jordyn Waite-Ward	set Luiza Da Cruz	+1.1
3	2-1	CSUBAK	CSUBAK×3	Kill	Suelen Lima		+1.6
4	3-1	CSUBAK	CSUBAK×3	Attack err	Emma Neukirchen		+1.6
5	3-2	CSUBAK	S FRAN	Kill	Emma Neukirchen	set Adelynn Legates	+1.1
6	4-2	S FRAN	CSUBAK	Attack err	Maeve Bailey		+1.2
7	4-3	CSUBAK	S FRAN	Kill	Petra Fritz	set Adelynn Legates	+1.1
8	5-3	S FRAN	CSUBAK	Attack err	Anica Bobic		+1.2
9	6-3	CSUBAK	CSUBAK	Bad set	Jordan Smart		+1.7
10	6-4	CSUBAK	S FRAN	Attack err	Suelen Lima	blk Maeve Bailey, Petra Fritz	+1.1
11	7-4	S FRAN	CSUBAK	Kill	Suelen Lima	set Luiza Da Cruz	+1.2
12	7-5	CSUBAK	S FRAN×3	Serve err	CSUBAK server		+1.1
13	7-6	S FRAN	S FRAN×3	Kill	Emma Neukirchen	set Jordan Smart	+1.7
14	7-7	S FRAN	S FRAN×3	Attack err	Anna Bacchin		+1.8
15	8-7	S FRAN	CSUBAK	Serve err	S FRAN server		+1.4
16	8-8	CSUBAK	S FRAN	Kill	Katariina Korhonen	set Jordan Smart	+1.3
17	9-8	S FRAN	CSUBAK	Serve err	S FRAN server		+1.4
18	9-9	CSUBAK	S FRAN	Kill	Katariina Korhonen	set Adelynn Legates	+1.4
19	10-9	S FRAN	CSUBAK	Kill	Anna Bacchin	set Luiza Da Cruz	+1.4
20	11-9	CSUBAK	CSUBAK	Ace	CSUBAK server	aced Petra Fritz	+2.0
21	11-10	CSUBAK	S FRAN×4	Kill	Emma Neukirchen	set Adelynn Legates	+1.3
22	11-11	S FRAN	S FRAN×4	Attack err	Jordyn Waite-Ward		+2.1
23	11-12	S FRAN	S FRAN×4	Kill	Maeve Bailey	set Adelynn Legates	+2.1
24	11-13	S FRAN	S FRAN×4	Kill	Petra Fritz		+2.1
25	12-13	S FRAN	CSUBAK	Serve err	S FRAN server		+1.4
26	12-14	CSUBAK	S FRAN×3	Kill	Petra Fritz	set Adelynn Legates	+1.5
27	12-15	S FRAN	S FRAN×3	Ace	S FRAN server	aced Team	+2.0
28	12-16	S FRAN	S FRAN×3	Attack err	Suelen Lima		+1.7
29	13-16	S FRAN	CSUBAK	Kill	Leylah Duran	set Luiza Da Cruz	+1.0
30	13-17	CSUBAK	S FRAN	Attack err	Anna Bacchin	blk Maeve Bailey, Anica Bobic	+1.2
31	13-18	S FRAN	S FRAN	Ace	S FRAN server	aced Team	+1.4
32	14-18	S FRAN	CSUBAK	Kill	Suelen Lima	set Luiza Da Cruz	+0.7
33	14-19	CSUBAK	S FRAN×4	Kill	Maeve Bailey	set Jordan Smart	+0.9
34	14-20	S FRAN	S FRAN×4	Kill	Katariina Korhonen	set Jordan Smart	+0.9
35	14-21	S FRAN	S FRAN×4	Kill	Petra Fritz	set Jordan Smart	+0.5
36	14-22	S FRAN	S FRAN×4	Attack err	Reese Jackson		+0.2
37	15-22	S FRAN	CSUBAK	Serve err	S FRAN server		+0.1
38	16-22	CSUBAK	CSUBAK	Attack err	Talula Lenoir		+0.2
39	16-23	CSUBAK	S FRAN×3	Attack err	Reese Jackson		+0.2
40	16-24	S FRAN	S FRAN×3	Attack err	Anna Bacchin	blk Emma Neukirchen, Simona Ivanova	+0.1
41	16-25	S FRAN	S FRAN×3	Ace	S FRAN server	aced Suelen Lima	+0.0

Score shown after each rally, CSU Bakersfield first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.