FinalSat, Aug 29, 2026

AwayUAC-

0:3

HomeBIG-12

Colorado def. Central Ark. 3–0

(25-13, 27-25, 25-18)

Set	1*	2	3	Sets
C ARK	13	25	18	0
COLO	25	27	25	3

* Set 1: the NCAA play-by-play has a gap or score correction here, so this set is left out of the rotation splits.

RallyIQ model

Win probability

COLO above 50 · C ARK below

Biggest swing: 0.7% to Colorado — set 2, C ARK 24-24 COLO. Colorado ace on Ella Chaney. COLO win probability 99% → 99%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

C ARK 0.5%99.5% COLO

Central Ark. wins

3-0

0.0%

3-1

0.1%

3-2

0.3%

Colorado wins

3-0

80.0%

3-1

17.2%

3-2

2.3%

C ARK break %: 32.9% vs this opp
COLO break %: 52.7% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
COLO serverAce+0.7%
Colorado ace on Ella Chaney
Set 2 · C ARK 24-24 COLO · COLO 99% → 99%
02
Ana BurilovicAttack error+0.5%
Ana Burilovic stuffed by Nicole Sargent & McKinzee Haas
Set 2 · C ARK 24-22 COLO · C ARK 1% → 2%
03
Nicole SargentAttack error+0.5%
Attack error by Nicole Sargent
Set 2 · C ARK 25-24 COLO · C ARK 1% → 1%
04
Ana BurilovicKill+0.5%
Kill by Ana Burilovic (set by Jenna Ylivainio)
Set 2 · C ARK 25-25 COLO · COLO 99% → 99%
05
Greyson ButtonAttack error+0.4%
Attack error by Greyson Button
Set 2 · C ARK 25-26 COLO · COLO 99% → 100%
06
Lily DwinellAttack error+0.4%
Lily Dwinell stuffed by McKinzee Haas & Nicole Sargent
Set 2 · C ARK 22-20 COLO · C ARK 1% → 1%
07
Sarah CarnathanKill+0.4%
Kill by Sarah Carnathan (set by Sophie Skinner)
Set 2 · C ARK 23-21 COLO · C ARK 1% → 1%
08
Cayla PayneAttack error+0.3%
Attack error by Cayla Payne
Set 2 · C ARK 19-16 COLO · C ARK 1% → 1%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Central Ark.away

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
10Ella ChaneyOH	3	7	7	23	.000	0	0	0	6	2	1	0.5	7.5
8McKinzee HaasMB	3	4	1	8	.375	0	0	0	0	0	5	2.5	6.5
12Sarah CarnathanOH	3	4	9	25	-.200	0	0	0	2	1	1	0.5	4.5
16Tatelyn BrandsmaS	3	1	1	6	.000	9	0	0	2	0	1	0.5	1.5
2Trinity HamiltonOH	3	0	0	0	–	1	1	1	4	3	0	0	1
3Karlyn FrazierMB	2	0	2	3	-.667	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6Nicole SargentOPP	3	6	1	13	.385	0	0	0	0	0	5	2.5	8.5
22Cameron McDanielL/DS	3	1	0	1	1.000	0	0	1	11	0	0	0	1
5Olivia KremerL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	3	1	0	3	1	0	0	1
23Sophie SkinnerS	3	0	0	0	–	11	0	1	6	0	0	0	0
20Greyson ButtonMB	2	5	3	15	.133	0	0	0	1	1	3	1.5	6.5
Team totals		28	24	94	.043	24	2	3	35	8	16	8	56

Coloradohome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
11Ana BurilovicOH	3	14	6	32	.250	2	1	3	4	0	0	1	0.5	15.5
21Lily DwinellOH	3	8	1	18	.389	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	9
10Sydney JordanOH	3	7	1	20	.300	0	0	3	11	1	1	1	1.5	8.5
33Cayla PayneMB	3	6	4	15	.133	0	0	0	2	0	1	1	1.5	7.5
7Barbora RakauskaiteMB	3	4	1	7	.429	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	2	6
2Jenna YlivainioS	3	1	1	6	.000	30	0	1	3	0	0	1	0.5	1.5
9Avery BollesL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	1	5	1	4	1	0	0	0	5
13Katie SalongaL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	1
22Tinons Munar GalmesL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	4	1	2	10	0	0	0	0	1
20Peyton NealL/DS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
8Ines LosadaOH	1	1	0	1	1.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
4Audrey AslesonS	1	0	0	0	–	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		41	14	99	.273	38	8	10	35	2	2	10	7	77

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 3 C ARK · COLO 5

Set 1*

13-25

Longest run 3 C ARKCOLO 4

Set 2

25-27

Longest run 3 C ARKCOLO 3

Set 3

18-25

Longest run 2 C ARKCOLO 5

Bars above the line = Colorado leads, below = Central Ark. leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Central Ark.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	67%6/9	38%3/8
2	83%5/6	45%5/11
3	50%5/10	17%1/6
4	40%4/10	29%2/7
5	67%4/6	43%3/7
6	40%4/10	20%1/5
All	55%28/51	34%15/44

Colorado

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	67%6/9	55%6/11
2	60%6/10	14%1/7
3	71%5/7	50%5/10
4	67%4/6	56%5/9
5	67%4/6	33%2/6
6	67%4/6	50%4/8
All	66%29/44	45%23/51

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (2 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

133 rallies

Rally log

#	C ARK-COLO	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	0-1	C ARK	COLO×4	Kill	Ana Burilovic	set Jenna Ylivainio	+0.0
2	0-2	COLO	COLO×4	Attack err	Ella Chaney		+0.1
3	0-3	COLO	COLO×4	Kill	Ana Burilovic	set Jenna Ylivainio	+0.0
4	0-4	COLO	COLO×4	Attack err	Karlyn Frazier		+0.0
5	1-4	COLO	C ARK	Serve err	COLO server		+0.0
6	2-4	C ARK	C ARK	Attack err	Cayla Payne	blk Tatelyn Brandsma, McKinzee Haas	+0.0
7	2-5	C ARK	COLO×4	Kill	Cayla Payne	set Cameron McDaniel	+0.0
8	2-6	COLO	COLO×4	Attack err	Sarah Carnathan		+0.0
9	2-7	COLO	COLO×4	Kill	Ana Burilovic	set Jenna Ylivainio	+0.0
10	2-8	COLO	COLO×4	Feed gap	Placeholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known.		+0.0
11	3-8	COLO	C ARK	Kill	McKinzee Haas	set Tatelyn Brandsma	+0.0
12	3-9	C ARK	COLO	Kill	Cayla Payne	set Jenna Ylivainio	+0.0
13	3-10	COLO	COLO	Ace	COLO server	aced Sarah Carnathan	+0.0
14	4-10	COLO	C ARK	Serve err	COLO server		+0.0
15	5-10	C ARK	C ARK	Ace	C ARK server	aced Avery Bolles	+0.0
16	5-11	C ARK	COLO×3	Kill	Sydney Jordan	set Jenna Ylivainio	+0.0
17	5-12	COLO	COLO×3	Kill	Barbora Rakauskaite	set Jenna Ylivainio	+0.0
18	5-13	COLO	COLO×3	Attack err	McKinzee Haas		+0.0
19	6-13	COLO	C ARK	Kill	Nicole Sargent	set Sophie Skinner	+0.0
20	7-13	C ARK	C ARK	Kill	Nicole Sargent	set Sophie Skinner	+0.0
21	7-14	C ARK	COLO	Kill	Sydney Jordan	set Jenna Ylivainio	+0.0
22	8-14	COLO	C ARK	Kill	Ella Chaney	set Sophie Skinner	+0.0
23	8-15	C ARK	COLO	Attack err	Ella Chaney	blk Barbora Rakauskaite, Sydney Jordan	+0.0
24	9-15	COLO	C ARK	Kill	Ella Chaney	set Tatelyn Brandsma	+0.0
25	9-16	C ARK	COLO×4	Attack err	Sarah Carnathan		+0.0
26	9-17	COLO	COLO×4	Ace	COLO server	aced Ella Chaney	+0.0
27	9-18	COLO	COLO×4	Attack err	Karlyn Frazier	blk Cayla Payne, Ana Burilovic	+0.0
28	9-19	COLO	COLO×4	Kill	Lily Dwinell	set Jenna Ylivainio	+0.0
29	10-19	COLO	C ARK	Kill	Sarah Carnathan	set Tatelyn Brandsma	+0.0
30	10-20	C ARK	COLO×3	Kill	Lily Dwinell	set Jenna Ylivainio	+0.0
31	10-21	COLO	COLO×3	Attack err	Tatelyn Brandsma	blk Cayla Payne	+0.0
32	10-22	COLO	COLO×3	Ace	COLO server	aced Trinity Hamilton	+0.0
33	11-22	COLO	C ARK×3	Kill	Ella Chaney	set Tatelyn Brandsma	+0.0
34	12-22	C ARK	C ARK×3	Kill	Nicole Sargent	set Sophie Skinner	+0.0
35	13-22	C ARK	C ARK×3	Attack err	Ana Burilovic		+0.0
36	13-23	C ARK	COLO×3	Kill	Cayla Payne	set Audrey Asleson	+0.0
37	13-24	COLO	COLO×3	Kill	Ines Losada	set Avery Bolles	+0.0
38	13-25	COLO	COLO×3	Attack err	Sarah Carnathan		+0.0
Set 2
1	0-1	COLO	COLO	Bad set	Ella Chaney		+0.0
2	1-1	COLO	C ARK	Serve err	COLO server		+0.0
3	1-2	C ARK	COLO	Kill	Ana Burilovic	set Jenna Ylivainio	+0.0
4	2-2	COLO	C ARK	Kill	McKinzee Haas	set Sophie Skinner	+0.0
5	2-3	C ARK	COLO	Kill	Lily Dwinell	set Jenna Ylivainio	+0.0
6	2-4	COLO	COLO	Kill	Ana Burilovic	set Jenna Ylivainio	+0.0
7	3-4	COLO	C ARK	Attack err	Ana Burilovic	blk Greyson Button, Nicole Sargent	+0.0
8	4-4	C ARK	C ARK	Attack err	Cayla Payne	blk Ella Chaney, Greyson Button	+0.1
9	4-5	C ARK	COLO	Serve err	C ARK server		+0.0
10	4-6	COLO	COLO	Attack err	Greyson Button		+0.0
11	5-6	COLO	C ARK	Serve err	COLO server		+0.0
12	6-6	C ARK	C ARK	Attack err	Cayla Payne	blk Greyson Button, Sarah Carnathan	+0.1
13	6-7	C ARK	COLO	Attack err	Sarah Carnathan		+0.0
14	7-7	COLO	C ARK	Kill	Greyson Button	set Tatelyn Brandsma	+0.1
15	8-7	C ARK	C ARK	Attack err	Ana Burilovic		+0.1
16	8-8	C ARK	COLO	Kill	Sydney Jordan	set Jenna Ylivainio	+0.1
17	9-8	COLO	C ARK	Serve err	COLO server		+0.1
18	10-8	C ARK	C ARK	Attack err	Sydney Jordan	blk Nicole Sargent, McKinzee Haas	+0.1
19	10-9	C ARK	COLO	Serve err	C ARK server		+0.1
20	10-10	COLO	COLO	Kill	Barbora Rakauskaite		+0.1
21	11-10	COLO	C ARK×3	Serve err	COLO server		+0.1
22	12-10	C ARK	C ARK×3	Attack err	Ana Burilovic		+0.1
23	13-10	C ARK	C ARK×3	Kill	Nicole Sargent	set Olivia Kremer	+0.2
24	13-11	C ARK	COLO	Kill	Lily Dwinell	set Jenna Ylivainio	+0.1
25	14-11	COLO	C ARK	Kill	Ella Chaney	set Olivia Kremer	+0.2
26	15-11	C ARK	C ARK	Kill	Nicole Sargent	set Olivia Kremer	+0.2
27	15-12	C ARK	COLO×3	Kill	Ana Burilovic	set Jenna Ylivainio	+0.1
28	15-13	COLO	COLO×3	Kill	Ana Burilovic	set Jenna Ylivainio	+0.2
29	15-14	COLO	COLO×3	Ace	COLO server	aced Greyson Button	+0.2
30	16-14	COLO	C ARK	Kill	Greyson Button	set Sophie Skinner	+0.2
31	17-14	C ARK	C ARK	Ace	C ARK server	aced Sydney Jordan	+0.3
32	17-15	C ARK	COLO	Kill	Sydney Jordan	set Ana Burilovic	+0.1
33	17-16	COLO	COLO	Attack err	Ella Chaney		+0.2
34	18-16	COLO	C ARK	Kill	Greyson Button	set Tatelyn Brandsma	+0.2
35	19-16	C ARK	C ARK	Attack err	Cayla Payne		+0.3
36	19-17	C ARK	COLO	Kill	Jenna Ylivainio	set Tinons Munar Galmes	+0.2
37	20-17	COLO	C ARK	Attack err	Barbora Rakauskaite		+0.3
38	20-18	C ARK	COLO×3	Serve err	C ARK server		+0.2
39	20-19	COLO	COLO×3	Attack err	Sarah Carnathan	blk Lily Dwinell, Barbora Rakauskaite	+0.3
40	20-20	COLO	COLO×3	Kill	Sydney Jordan	set Jenna Ylivainio	+0.3
41	21-20	COLO	C ARK	Bad set	Barbora Rakauskaite		+0.2
42	22-20	C ARK	C ARK	Attack err	Lily Dwinell	blk McKinzee Haas, Nicole Sargent	+0.4
43	22-21	C ARK	COLO	Kill	Barbora Rakauskaite	set Jenna Ylivainio	+0.2
44	23-21	COLO	C ARK	Kill	Sarah Carnathan	set Sophie Skinner	+0.4
45	23-22	C ARK	COLO	Kill	Ana Burilovic	set Tinons Munar Galmes	+0.2
46	24-22	COLO	C ARK	Attack err	Ana Burilovic	blk Nicole Sargent, McKinzee Haas	+0.5
47	24-23	C ARK	COLO	Kill	Ana Burilovic	set Jenna Ylivainio	+0.2
48	24-24	COLO	COLO	Ace	COLO server	aced Ella Chaney	+0.7
49	25-24	COLO	C ARK	Attack err	Nicole Sargent		+0.5
50	25-25	C ARK	COLO×3	Kill	Ana Burilovic	set Jenna Ylivainio	+0.5
51	25-26	COLO	COLO×3	Attack err	Greyson Button		+0.4
52	25-27	COLO	COLO×3	Attack err	Ella Chaney		+0.3
Set 3
1	0-1	C ARK	COLO	Kill	Ana Burilovic	set Jenna Ylivainio	+0.0
2	0-2	COLO	COLO	Attack err	Sarah Carnathan		+0.0
3	1-2	COLO	C ARK	Serve err	COLO server		+0.0
4	2-2	C ARK	C ARK	Kill	Ella Chaney	set Sophie Skinner	+0.0
5	2-3	C ARK	COLO	Kill	Lily Dwinell	set Ana Burilovic	+0.0
6	2-4	COLO	COLO	Ace	COLO server	aced Olivia Kremer	+0.0
7	3-4	COLO	C ARK	Kill	Ella Chaney	set Sophie Skinner	+0.0
8	3-5	C ARK	COLO	Attack err	Nicole Sargent		+0.0
9	4-5	COLO	C ARK	Serve err	COLO server		+0.0
10	4-6	C ARK	COLO	Attack err	Ella Chaney		+0.0
11	5-6	COLO	C ARK	Kill	Greyson Button	set Tatelyn Brandsma	+0.0
12	5-7	C ARK	COLO	Kill	Sydney Jordan	set Jenna Ylivainio	+0.0
13	5-8	COLO	COLO	Kill	Lily Dwinell	set Tinons Munar Galmes	+0.0
14	6-8	COLO	C ARK	Kill	Greyson Button	set Tatelyn Brandsma	+0.0
15	6-9	C ARK	COLO	Kill	Lily Dwinell	set Jenna Ylivainio	+0.0
16	7-9	COLO	C ARK	Attack err	Jenna Ylivainio		+0.0
17	8-9	C ARK	C ARK	Kill	McKinzee Haas	set Sydney Jordan	+0.0
18	8-10	C ARK	COLO	Kill	Lily Dwinell	set Jenna Ylivainio	+0.0
19	9-10	COLO	C ARK	Kill	Sarah Carnathan	set Sophie Skinner	+0.0
20	10-10	C ARK	C ARK	Attack err	Ana Burilovic	blk Nicole Sargent, McKinzee Haas	+0.0
21	10-11	C ARK	COLO	Kill	Cayla Payne	set Jenna Ylivainio	+0.0
22	11-11	COLO	C ARK	Serve err	COLO server		+0.0
23	11-12	C ARK	COLO	Kill	Cayla Payne	set Jenna Ylivainio	+0.0
24	11-13	COLO	COLO	Kill	Cayla Payne		+0.0
25	12-13	COLO	C ARK	Kill	Ella Chaney	set Sophie Skinner	+0.0
26	12-14	C ARK	COLO×3	Kill	Sydney Jordan	set Jenna Ylivainio	+0.0
27	12-15	COLO	COLO×3	Attack err	Ella Chaney	blk Barbora Rakauskaite, Jenna Ylivainio	+0.0
28	12-16	COLO	COLO×3	Ace	COLO server	aced Trinity Hamilton	+0.0
29	13-16	COLO	C ARK	Kill	Tatelyn Brandsma	set Tatelyn Brandsma	+0.0
30	14-16	C ARK	C ARK	Kill	Sarah Carnathan	set Tatelyn Brandsma	+0.0
31	14-17	C ARK	COLO	Attack err	Greyson Button	blk Sydney Jordan	+0.0
32	14-18	COLO	COLO	Attack err	Sarah Carnathan		+0.0
33	15-18	COLO	C ARK	Kill	Cameron McDaniel	set Jenna Ylivainio	+0.0
34	15-19	C ARK	COLO×5	Kill	Barbora Rakauskaite	set Jenna Ylivainio	+0.0
35	15-20	COLO	COLO×5	Kill	Ana Burilovic	set Tinons Munar Galmes	+0.0
36	15-21	COLO	COLO×5	Attack err	Sarah Carnathan		+0.0
37	15-22	COLO	COLO×5	Attack err	Sarah Carnathan	blk Barbora Rakauskaite, Lily Dwinell	+0.0
38	15-23	COLO	COLO×5	Attack err	Ella Chaney		+0.0
39	16-23	COLO	C ARK	Serve err	COLO server		+0.0
40	16-24	C ARK	COLO	Kill	Ana Burilovic	set Jenna Ylivainio	+0.0
41	17-24	COLO	C ARK	Kill	McKinzee Haas	set Tatelyn Brandsma	+0.0
42	18-24	C ARK	C ARK	Kill	Nicole Sargent		+0.0
43	18-25	C ARK	COLO	Kill	Ana Burilovic	set Jenna Ylivainio	+0.0

Score shown after each rally, Central Ark. first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.