Final · 5 setsThu, Oct 29, 2026Watch on ESPN+

Colorado def. Cincinnati 3–2

RallyIQ pre-match: Colorado 75.8% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Oct 29, 7:55 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Colorado beat visiting Cincinnati 3-2 (25-17, 23-25, 25-20, 8-25, 15-12) on Thu, Oct 29, 2026. Ana Burilovic led Colorado with 22 kills; Cincinnati's Sydney Nolan had a match-high 24.

Data through · final Oct 29

Set12345Sets
CINCY17252025122
COLO2523258153

Match story · written from the play-by-play

Ana Burilovic's 22 kills carried Colorado in five.

3 stretches decided it. Percentages are Colorado's RallyIQ win probability before and after each. Colorado went in as RallyIQ's 76% pick.

  1. Turning point 1: Set 5 · Cincinnati 0–3 Colorado

    Down 0–3, Cincinnati scored 4 straight to lead 4–3.

    Colorado 83% → 52%

  2. Turning point 2: Set 5 · Cincinnati 8–11 Colorado

    3 straight Cincinnati points erased an 8–11 deficit: 11–11.

    Colorado 89% → 59%

  3. Turning point 3: Set 5 · Cincinnati 11–12 Colorado

    Colorado won 3 of the last 4 rallies to take the set 15–12 and win the match 3–2.

    Colorado 72% → >99%

Colorado above 50Cincinnati belowMax swing 15.1%

CincinnatiColorado

Sideout %
Cincinnati 57.9·Colorado 56.0
Break %
Cincinnati 44.0·Colorado 42.1
Hitting
Cincinnati .208·Colorado .237
Longest run
Cincinnati 6·Colorado 4

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Colorado above 50 · Cincinnati below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 4SET 510050100+15.1% COLOrally 195 · set 5

Biggest swing: 15.1% to Colorado — set 5, CINCY 11-13 COLO. Ace by Ines Losada on Ava Ledebuhr. COLO win probability 72% → 87%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

CINCY 29.1%70.9% COLO

Cincinnati wins

3-0
5.5%
3-1
10.2%
3-2
13.5%

Colorado wins

3-0
23.9%
3-1
27.2%
3-2
19.8%
CINCY break %
40.5% vs this opp
COLO break %
44.7% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Ines LosadaAce+15.1%

    Ace by Ines Losada on Ava Ledebuhr

    Set 5 · CINCY 11-13 COLO · COLO 72% → 87%

  2. 02
    Ines LosadaAttack error+14.7%

    Attack error by Ines Losada

    Set 5 · CINCY 11-11 COLO · CINCY 26% → 41%

  3. 03
    Ana BurilovicKill+12.6%

    Kill by Ana Burilovic (set by Jenna Ylivainio)

    Set 5 · CINCY 12-14 COLO · COLO 79% → 91%

  4. 04
    Ines LosadaKill+12.2%

    Kill by Ines Losada (set by Jenna Ylivainio)

    Set 5 · CINCY 11-12 COLO · COLO 59% → 72%

  5. 05

    Ana Burilovic stuffed by Nina Scrucca & Lilian Entenmann

    Set 5 · CINCY 6-5 COLO · CINCY 39% → 49%

  6. 06

    Sydney Nolan stuffed by Jenna Ylivainio & Cayla Payne

    Set 5 · CINCY 6-7 COLO · COLO 58% → 69%

  7. 07
    Ligia WilliamsBlock+10.3%

    Maria Splawska stuffed by Ligia Williams

    Set 5 · CINCY 10-11 COLO · CINCY 16% → 26%

  8. 08
    Ana BurilovicAttack error+9.9%

    Attack error by Ana Burilovic

    Set 5 · CINCY 4-3 COLO · CINCY 38% → 48%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
524665.2770103002126
511320.40000000254.515.5
5305.60045301300428
53312.000230900006
5228.000003000424
5000–1121720001
57520.100001000218
5000–4221510002
5000–100610000
34514-.07100000010.54.5
1000–000000000
1000–000000000
Team totals5424144.208531086342181199
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
522654.29611211202124
59315.4000000006312
59829.03402230010.511.5
56322.136000000428
55110.40010230052.57.5
5307.42941111400426
5102.5006021110001
5000–202400000
5000–301750000
4215.200000100002
1115.000000000001
1103.333000000001
1000–000000000
14Nikki OttL/DS
1000–000000000
Team totals5923152.2375441254100221196

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 6 CINCY · COLO 4

Set 1

17-25

Longest run 4 CINCYCOLO 4

Set 2

25-23

Longest run 4 CINCYCOLO 3

Set 3

20-25

Longest run 3 CINCYCOLO 3

Set 4

25-8

Longest run 6 CINCYCOLO 1

Set 5

12-15

Longest run 4 CINCYCOLO 3

Bars above the line = Colorado leads, below = Cincinnati leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Cincinnati

SlotSideout %Break %
1
57%8/14
33%4/12
2
53%8/15
67%16/24
3
54%7/13
50%7/14
4
75%6/8
22%2/9
5
55%6/11
14%1/7
6
55%6/11
33%3/9
All
57%41/72
44%33/75

Colorado

SlotSideout %Break %
1
50%9/18
36%4/11
2
35%8/23
53%9/17
3
70%7/10
38%5/13
4
67%6/9
40%4/10
5
100%6/6
40%4/10
6
67%6/9
45%5/11
All
56%42/75
43%31/72

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 5 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

195 rallies

#CINCY-COLOSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
10-1COLOCOLOKillInes Losadaset Jenna Ylivainio+1.9
21-1COLOCINCYKillSydney Nolanset Kate Lijic+1.4
31-2CINCYCOLOKillMaria Splawskaset Jenna Ylivainio+1.4
42-2COLOCINCY×4KillSydney Nolanset Kate Lijic+1.5
53-2CINCYCINCY×4Attack errAna Burilovic+2.1
64-2CINCYCINCY×4KillNina Scruccaset Kate Lijic+2.3
75-2CINCYCINCY×4AceCincinnatiaced Peyton Neal+2.3
85-3CINCYCOLO×3KillAna Burilovicset Jenna Ylivainio+1.5
95-4COLOCOLO×3KillAna Burilovicset Jenna Ylivainio+2.2
105-5COLOCOLO×3Attack errNina Scrucca+2.2
116-5COLOCINCYKillSydney Nolanset Kate Lijic+1.7
126-6CINCYCOLOKillJenna Ylivainioset Tinons Munar Galmes+1.6
137-6COLOCINCYServe errColorado+1.8
147-7CINCYCOLO×3KillCayla Payneset Jenna Ylivainio+1.7
157-8COLOCOLO×3Attack errNina Scrucca+2.2
167-9COLOCOLO×3Attack errAndrea Simovski+2.1
178-9COLOCINCYKillLigia Williamsset Kate Lijic+1.5
188-10CINCYCOLO×4KillInes Losadaset Jenna Ylivainio+1.6
198-11COLOCOLO×4BlockedAndrea Simovskiblk Maria Splawska, Lily Dwinell+1.9
208-12COLOCOLO×4AceJenna Ylivainioaced Ava Ledebuhr+1.6
218-13COLOCOLO×4KillInes Losadaset Jenna Ylivainio+1.3
229-13COLOCINCYServe errJenna Ylivainio+0.8
239-14CINCYCOLOAttack errSydney Nolan+1.0
2410-14COLOCINCYKillSydney Nolanset Kate Lijic+0.8
2511-14CINCYCINCYAceCincinnatiaced Peyton Neal+1.5
2611-15CINCYCOLO×4KillAna Burilovicset Jenna Ylivainio+1.3
2711-16COLOCOLO×4KillAna Burilovicset Jenna Ylivainio+1.3
2811-17COLOCOLO×4Attack errLilian Entenmann+0.9
2911-18COLOCOLO×4KillAna Burilovicset Jenna Ylivainio+0.6
3012-18COLOCINCYKillKate Lijicset Andrea Simovski+0.3
3113-18CINCYCINCYAceCincinnatiaced Peyton Neal+0.6
3213-19CINCYCOLOKillCayla Payneset Jenna Ylivainio+0.6
3313-20COLOCOLOAttack errLilian Entenmann+0.5
3414-20COLOCINCYKillSydney Nolanset Kate Lijic+0.2
3514-21CINCYCOLOKillCayla Payneset Jenna Ylivainio+0.3
3614-22COLOCOLOBad setKate Lijic+0.2
3715-22COLOCINCYServe errColorado+0.1
3815-23CINCYCOLOKillCayla Payneset Jenna Ylivainio+0.1
3916-23COLOCINCYKillLigia Williamsset Kate Lijic·
4016-24CINCYCOLOServe errCincinnati+0.1
4117-24COLOCINCYKillLigia Williamsset Kate Lijic·
4217-25CINCYCOLOKillLily Dwinellset Jenna Ylivainio·
Set 2
11-0CINCYCINCY×4BlockedInes Losadablk Ligia Williams, Kate Lijic+1.6
22-0CINCYCINCY×4Attack errLily Dwinell+1.7
33-0CINCYCINCY×4KillSydney Nolanset Kate Lijic+1.8
44-0CINCYCINCY×4KillLilian Entenmannset Kate Lijic+1.8
54-1CINCYCOLOServe errCincinnati+1.1
64-2COLOCOLOAceInes Losadaaced Viktoria Ninova+1.6
75-2COLOCINCYKillSydney Nolanset Viktoria Ninova+1.4
85-3CINCYCOLOKillAna Burilovicset Jenna Ylivainio+1.2
95-4COLOCOLOKillAna Burilovicset Jenna Ylivainio+1.7
106-4COLOCINCYKillNina Scruccaset Kate Lijic+1.4
116-5CINCYCOLOKillAna Burilovicset Tinons Munar Galmes+1.3
127-5COLOCINCYAttack errCayla Payne+1.4
137-6CINCYCOLOServe errCincinnati+1.3
148-6COLOCINCYKillLigia Williamsset Kate Lijic+1.5
158-7CINCYCOLO×3KillInes Losadaset Jenna Ylivainio+1.3
168-8COLOCOLO×3Attack errIzzy Busignani+1.9
178-9COLOCOLO×3Attack errIzzy Busignani+1.8
189-9COLOCINCY×3KillIzzy Busignaniset Kate Lijic+1.4
1910-9CINCYCINCY×3BlockedAna Burilovicblk Ligia Williams+2.1
2011-9CINCYCINCY×3KillKate Lijicset Ava Ledebuhr+2.2
2111-10CINCYCOLOKillInes Losadaset Jenna Ylivainio+1.5
2212-10COLOCINCYKillSydney Nolanset Kate Lijic+1.7
2312-11CINCYCOLOKillInes Losadaset Jenna Ylivainio+1.5
2412-12COLOCOLOKillAna Burilovicset Tinons Munar Galmes+2.2
2513-12COLOCINCYServe errColorado+1.7
26–2714-13CINCY · COLO
NCAA feed gap2 points not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+0.2
2815-13CINCYCINCYKillNina Scruccaset Kate Lijic+2.6
2915-14CINCYCOLOKillLily Dwinellset Tinons Munar Galmes+1.7
3016-14COLOCINCYKillNina Scruccaset Kate Lijic+2.0
3116-15CINCYCOLO×3KillAna Burilovicset Peyton Neal+1.8
3216-16COLOCOLO×3AceAna Burilovicaced Kayla Hostetler+2.6
3316-17COLOCOLO×3BlockedNina Scruccablk Ines Losada, Cayla Payne+2.6
3417-17COLOCINCYKillLigia Williamsset Kate Lijic+2.0
3518-17CINCYCINCYBlockedCayla Payneblk Ligia Williams, Izzy Busignani+3.1
3618-18CINCYCOLOServe errCincinnati+2.1
3719-18COLOCINCY×4Attack errInes Losada+2.5
3820-18CINCYCINCY×4Attack errInes Losada+3.5
3921-18CINCYCINCY×4KillSydney Nolanset Kate Lijic+3.2
4022-18CINCYCINCY×4BlockedInes Losadablk Ligia Williams, Kate Lijic+2.5
4122-19CINCYCOLOKillAna Burilovicset Jenna Ylivainio+1.0
4223-19COLOCINCYKillSydney Nolanset Kate Lijic+1.8
4323-20CINCYCOLOKillLily Dwinellset Jenna Ylivainio+0.8
4424-20COLOCINCYServe errColorado+1.6
4524-21CINCYCOLO×3KillMaria Splawskaset Jenna Ylivainio+0.5
4624-22COLOCOLO×3KillAna Burilovic+1.4
4724-23COLOCOLO×3Attack errSydney Nolan+3.2
4825-23COLOCINCYKillSydney Nolanset Kate Lijic+5.8
Set 3
11-0COLOCINCYAttack errInes Losada+2.2
21-1CINCYCOLO×3KillMaria Splawskaset Jenna Ylivainio+2.1
31-2COLOCOLO×3BlockedSydney Nolanblk Maria Splawska, Lily Dwinell+2.8
41-3COLOCOLO×3Attack errLigia Williams+2.6
52-3COLOCINCYKillSydney Nolanset Kate Lijic+1.9
62-4CINCYCOLOKillAna Burilovicset Jenna Ylivainio+1.9
73-4COLOCINCYServe errColorado+2.0
83-5CINCYCOLOKillCayla Payneset Jenna Ylivainio+2.0
94-5COLOCINCYKillNina Scruccaset Kate Lijic+2.0
105-5CINCYCINCYAttack errAna Burilovic+3.1
115-6CINCYCOLOBlockedNina Scruccablk Ana Burilovic, Cayla Payne+2.2
125-7COLOCOLOBlockedIzzy Busignaniblk Cayla Payne, Jenna Ylivainio+2.9
136-7COLOCINCYKillLilian Entenmannset Kate Lijic+2.1
146-8CINCYCOLOServe errCincinnati+2.2
156-9COLOCOLOKillJenna Ylivainioset Avery Bolles+2.7
167-9COLOCINCYServe errColorado+1.9
177-10CINCYCOLOServe errCincinnati+2.0
188-10COLOCINCY×3KillIzzy Busignaniset Kate Lijic+1.9
199-10CINCYCINCY×3BlockedInes Losadablk Sydney Nolan, Ligia Williams+3.1
2010-10CINCYCINCY×3KillSydney Nolanset Kate Lijic+3.6
2110-11CINCYCOLOKillMaria Splawskaset Jenna Ylivainio+2.6
2210-12COLOCOLOKillMaria Splawskaset Jenna Ylivainio+3.4
2311-12COLOCINCYKillLigia Williamsset Kate Lijic+2.5
2411-13CINCYCOLOKillAna Burilovicset Jenna Ylivainio+2.6
2511-14COLOCOLOKillAna Burilovicset Peyton Neal+3.1
2612-14COLOCINCYKillSydney Nolanset Kate Lijic+2.1
2712-15CINCYCOLOKillCayla Payneset Jenna Ylivainio+2.3
2813-15COLOCINCYKillSydney Nolanset Kate Lijic+2.1
2913-16CINCYCOLOBlockedIzzy Busignaniblk Cayla Payne, Jenna Ylivainio+2.4
3013-17COLOCOLOKillInes Losadaset Jenna Ylivainio+2.7
3114-17COLOCINCYKillIzzy Busignani+1.6
3214-18CINCYCOLOServe errCincinnati+2.0
3315-18COLOCINCYServe errColorado+1.6
3415-19CINCYCOLO×3BlockedIzzy Busignaniblk Jenna Ylivainio, Maria Splawska+2.0
3515-20COLOCOLO×3Attack errLigia Williams+1.9
3615-21COLOCOLO×3KillAna Burilovicset Jenna Ylivainio+1.1
3716-21COLOCINCY×3KillLigia Williamsset Kate Lijic+0.4
3817-21CINCYCINCY×3AceAndrea Simovskiaced Ana Burilovic+1.1
3918-21CINCYCINCY×3AceAndrea Simovski+1.8
4018-22CINCYCOLOBlockedLigia Williamsblk Maria Splawska, Lily Dwinell+2.0
4119-22COLOCINCYServe errColorado+1.2
4219-23CINCYCOLOServe errCincinnati+1.9
4320-23COLOCINCYKillSydney Nolanset Kate Lijic+0.9
4420-24CINCYCOLOKillCayla Payneset Jenna Ylivainio+1.7
4520-25COLOCOLOAttack errSydney Nolan+0.6
Set 4
10-1CINCYCOLOKillAna Burilovic+1.6
21-1COLOCINCY×4KillLigia Williamsset Kate Lijic+1.7
32-1CINCYCINCY×4AceViktoria Ninovaaced Peyton Neal+2.5
43-1CINCYCINCY×4KillSydney Nolanset Kate Lijic+2.7
54-1CINCYCINCY×4Attack errLily Dwinell+2.8
64-2CINCYCOLOKillAna Burilovicset Jenna Ylivainio+1.8
75-2COLOCINCY×3KillSydney Nolanset Kate Lijic+2.1
86-2CINCYCINCY×3AceKate Lijicaced Peyton Neal+2.8
97-2CINCYCINCY×3KillSydney Nolanset Viktoria Ninova+2.7
107-3CINCYCOLOKillTinons Munar Galmesset Jenna Ylivainio+1.6
118-3COLOCINCY×3Serve errColorado+2.0
129-3CINCYCINCY×3KillNina Scruccaset Viktoria Ninova+2.5
1310-3CINCYCINCY×3AceSydney Nolanaced Tinons Munar Galmes+2.2
1410-4CINCYCOLOKillAna Burilovicset Jenna Ylivainio+1.2
1511-4COLOCINCYBlockedInes Losadablk Lilian Entenmann, Nina Scrucca+1.6
1611-5CINCYCOLOKillSydney Jordanset Jenna Ylivainio+1.2
1712-5COLOCINCYKillLigia Williamsset Kate Lijic+1.6
1813-5CINCYCINCYAceAva Ledebuhraced Ana Burilovic+1.7
1913-6CINCYCOLOKillSydney Jordanset Maria Splawska+0.9
2014-6COLOCINCY×5KillAndrea Simovskiset Kate Lijic+1.2
2115-6CINCYCINCY×5BlockedSydney Jordanblk Sydney Nolan, Ligia Williams+1.2
2216-6CINCYCINCY×5AceAndrea Simovski+0.8
2317-6CINCYCINCY×5KillSydney Nolanset Kate Lijic+0.5
2418-6CINCYCINCY×5KillSydney Nolanset Kate Lijic+0.3
2518-7CINCYCOLOKillBarbora Rakauskaiteset Jenna Ylivainio+0.1
2619-7COLOCINCY×6KillLigia Williamsset Kate Lijic+0.2
2720-7CINCYCINCY×6KillSydney Nolanset Viktoria Ninova+0.1
2821-7CINCYCINCY×6Attack errAna Burilovic·
2922-7CINCYCINCY×6Attack errLily Dwinell·
3023-7CINCYCINCY×6KillIzzy Busignaniset Kate Lijic·
3124-7CINCYCINCY×6BlockedDumebi Okoyeblk Lilian Entenmann, Kate Lijic·
3224-8CINCYCOLOKillDumebi Okoyeset Tinons Munar Galmes·
3325-8COLOCINCYKillKate Lijicset Andrea Simovski+1.1
Set 5
10-1CINCYCOLO×3KillAna Burilovicset Tinons Munar Galmes+5.7
20-2COLOCOLO×3KillAna Burilovicset Jenna Ylivainio+7.4
30-3COLOCOLO×3BlockedSydney Nolanblk Cayla Payne, Lily Dwinell+6.5
41-3COLOCINCY×4KillLigia Williamsset Kate Lijic+4.4
52-3CINCYCINCY×4KillSydney Nolanset Kate Lijic+7.4
63-3CINCYCINCY×4BlockedCayla Payneblk Lilian Entenmann, Kate Lijic+8.8
74-3CINCYCINCY×4Attack errAna Burilovic+9.9
84-4CINCYCOLOKillCayla Payneset Jenna Ylivainio+6.9
94-5COLOCOLOKillCayla Payneset Jenna Ylivainio+9.5
105-5COLOCINCYServe errColorado+7.2
116-5CINCYCINCYBlockedAna Burilovicblk Nina Scrucca, Lilian Entenmann+10.9
126-6CINCYCOLO×3KillJenna Ylivainioset Peyton Neal+7.6
136-7COLOCOLO×3BlockedSydney Nolanblk Jenna Ylivainio, Cayla Payne+10.6
146-8COLOCOLO×3KillInes Losadaset Jenna Ylivainio+9.8
157-8COLOCINCYKillSydney Nolanset Kate Lijic+6.7
167-9CINCYCOLOAttack errNina Scrucca+7.5
178-9COLOCINCYKillAndrea Simovskiset Kate Lijic+7.0
188-10CINCYCOLOAttack errAndrea Simovski+8.1
198-11COLOCOLOKillLily Dwinellset Kate Lijic+9.0
209-11COLOCINCY×3KillNina Scruccaset Kayla Hostetler+5.0
2110-11CINCYCINCY×3BlockedMaria Splawskablk Ligia Williams+10.3
2211-11CINCYCINCY×3Attack errInes Losada+14.7
2311-12CINCYCOLOKillInes Losadaset Jenna Ylivainio+12.2
2411-13COLOCOLOAceInes Losadaaced Ava Ledebuhr+15.1
2512-13COLOCINCYKillAndrea Simovskiset Kate Lijic+8.1
2612-14CINCYCOLOKillAna Burilovicset Jenna Ylivainio+12.6
2712-15COLOCOLOKillLily Dwinellset Ana Burilovic+8.9

Score shown after each rally, Cincinnati first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).