FinalSun, Sep 13, 2026

AwayACC

3:0

HomeMAC

Stanford def. Ohio 3–0

(25-18, 25-17, 25-16)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
STAN	25	25	25	3
OHIO	18	17	16	0

RallyIQ model

Win probability

OHIO above 50 · STAN below

Biggest swing: 1.2% to Ohio — set 1, STAN 14-16 OHIO. Attack error by Jordyn Harvey. OHIO win probability 5% → 6%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

STAN 97.0%3.0% OHIO

Stanford wins

3-0

62.5%

3-1

27.2%

3-2

7.4%

Ohio wins

3-0

0.3%

3-1

0.8%

3-2

1.9%

STAN break %: 48.7% vs this opp
OHIO break %: 34.3% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Jordyn HarveyAttack error+1.2%
Attack error by Jordyn Harvey
Set 1 · STAN 14-16 OHIO · OHIO 5% → 6%
02
Bailey BlairKill+1.0%
Kill by Bailey Blair (set by Rose Mahin)
Set 1 · STAN 9-12 OHIO · OHIO 5% → 6%
03
Jordyn HarveyKill+1.0%
Kill by Jordyn Harvey (set by Lilly Wagner)
Set 1 · STAN 16-16 OHIO · STAN 95% → 96%
04
Emily WaddellAttack error+0.9%
Attack error by Emily Waddell
Set 1 · STAN 17-16 OHIO · STAN 96% → 97%
05
OHIO serverAce+0.9%
Ohio ace on Ipar Kurt
Set 1 · STAN 9-11 OHIO · OHIO 4% → 5%
06
Lilly WagnerKill+0.9%
Kill by Lilly Wagner (set by Lillie Meinhart)
Set 1 · STAN 12-13 OHIO · STAN 94% → 95%
07
STAN serverAce+0.9%
Stanford ace on Rose Mahin
Set 1 · STAN 14-14 OHIO · STAN 95% → 96%
08
Emily WaddellAttack error+0.8%
Emily Waddell stuffed by Ipar Kurt & Ella Andrews
Set 1 · STAN 19-17 OHIO · STAN 97% → 97%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Stanfordaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
7Julia BlyashovOH	3	8	1	15	.467	3	2	3	3	1	0	1	0.5	10.5
15Ipar KurtOH	3	8	0	13	.615	1	0	0	0	1	0	2	1	9
11Lizzy AndrewMB	3	6	0	13	.462	0	1	1	1	0	1	2	2	9
5Jordyn HarveyOPP	3	7	1	14	.429	0	0	2	1	0	0	1	0.5	7.5
16Ella AndrewsMB	3	4	1	10	.300	1	0	0	0	0	1	3	2.5	6.5
26Lilly WagnerS	3	3	1	6	.333	24	0	0	9	0	0	1	0.5	3.5
9Spencer EtzlerL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	5	2	0	10	0	0	0	0	2
14Malyssa CawaDS	3	0	0	0	–	1	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0
19Simone RoslonOH	3	0	0	0	–	1	0	1	4	0	0	0	0	0
10Kaci DemariaOH	1	2	1	3	.333	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2
1Sarah HickmanOPP	1	1	0	1	1.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	1.5
8Sidney DuncanMB	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	0.5
6Koko KirschDS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0
Team totals		39	5	75	.453	36	5	7	30	3	2	12	8	75

Ohiohome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
7Rose MahinOH	3	7	7	21	.000	2	1	1	4	4	0	0	8
17Bailey BlairOPP	3	7	3	18	.222	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.5	7.5
1Cienna LapsleyMB	3	6	1	13	.385	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	6
23Olivia GardnerMB	3	5	5	15	.000	1	0	0	2	0	1	0.5	5.5
3Gentry BrownOH	3	5	4	13	.077	1	0	1	2	1	0	0	5
18Lillie MeinhartS	3	0	0	1	.000	17	0	0	3	0	0	0	0
11Emily WaddellMB	3	6	2	14	.286	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	6
13Bryn JankeS	3	0	1	2	-.500	14	1	0	7	0	0	0	1
16Darbi RickettsL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	1	1	3	0	0	0	1
22Lacy MarxL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0
2Kendall HickeyL/DS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		36	23	97	.134	35	3	5	26	5	2	1	51

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 7 STAN · OHIO 4

Set 1

25-18

Longest run 7 STANOHIO 4

Set 2

25-17

Longest run 7 STANOHIO 4

Set 3

25-16

Longest run 6 STANOHIO 4

Bars above the line = Ohio leads, below = Stanford leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Stanford

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	67%6/9	71%12/17
2	67%6/9	50%6/12
3	75%6/8	14%1/7
4	55%6/11	45%5/11
5	56%5/9	64%9/14
6	83%5/6	62%8/13
All	65%34/52	55%41/74

Ohio

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	43%6/14	0%0/5
2	60%6/10	33%3/9
3	75%6/8	40%4/10
4	43%6/14	40%4/10
5	50%5/10	33%3/9
6	22%4/18	44%4/9
All	45%33/74	35%18/52

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

126 rallies

Rally log

#	STAN-OHIO	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	0-1	STAN	OHIO	Kill	Cienna Lapsley	set Lillie Meinhart	+0.3
2	1-1	OHIO	STAN×4	Kill	Ipar Kurt	set Lilly Wagner	+0.3
3	2-1	STAN	STAN×4	Attack err	Bailey Blair	blk Lizzy Andrew, Ipar Kurt	+0.4
4	3-1	STAN	STAN×4	Attack err	Cienna Lapsley		+0.3
5	4-1	STAN	STAN×4	Attack err	Bailey Blair		+0.3
6	4-2	STAN	OHIO	Kill	Gentry Brown	set Lillie Meinhart	+0.2
7	5-2	OHIO	STAN	Serve err	OHIO server		+0.2
8	5-3	STAN	OHIO	Kill	Olivia Gardner	set Lillie Meinhart	+0.2
9	6-3	OHIO	STAN	Kill	Lizzy Andrew	set Lilly Wagner	+0.2
10	6-4	STAN	OHIO	Kill	Olivia Gardner	set Bryn Janke	+0.2
11	7-4	OHIO	STAN	Attack err	Rose Mahin		+0.2
12	7-5	STAN	OHIO×4	Kill	Emily Waddell	set Bryn Janke	+0.2
13	7-6	OHIO	OHIO×4	Attack err	Lilly Wagner		+0.4
14	7-7	OHIO	OHIO×4	Kill	Rose Mahin	set Bryn Janke	+0.5
15	7-8	OHIO	OHIO×4	Kill	Rose Mahin	set Bryn Janke	+0.6
16	8-8	OHIO	STAN	Attack err	Rose Mahin	blk Jordyn Harvey, Ella Andrews	+0.4
17	8-9	STAN	OHIO	Serve err	STAN server		+0.5
18	9-9	OHIO	STAN	Attack err	Rose Mahin		+0.4
19	9-10	STAN	OHIO×3	Kill	Cienna Lapsley	set Lillie Meinhart	+0.5
20	9-11	OHIO	OHIO×3	Ace	OHIO server	aced Ipar Kurt	+0.9
21	9-12	OHIO	OHIO×3	Kill	Bailey Blair	set Rose Mahin	+1.0
22	10-12	OHIO	STAN	Kill	Ipar Kurt	set Lilly Wagner	+0.6
23	10-13	STAN	OHIO	Kill	Bailey Blair	set Lillie Meinhart	+0.8
24	11-13	OHIO	STAN	Serve err	OHIO server		+0.6
25	12-13	STAN	STAN	Kill	Lilly Wagner	set Lillie Meinhart	+0.9
26	12-14	STAN	OHIO	Serve err	STAN server		+0.8
27	13-14	OHIO	STAN	Kill	Julia Blyashov	set Lilly Wagner	+0.6
28	14-14	STAN	STAN	Ace	STAN server	aced Rose Mahin	+0.9
29	14-15	STAN	OHIO	Serve err	STAN server		+0.7
30	14-16	OHIO	OHIO	Attack err	Jordyn Harvey		+1.2
31	15-16	OHIO	STAN×3	Attack err	Rose Mahin		+0.7
32	16-16	STAN	STAN×3	Kill	Jordyn Harvey	set Lilly Wagner	+1.0
33	17-16	STAN	STAN×3	Attack err	Emily Waddell		+0.9
34	17-17	STAN	OHIO	Kill	Emily Waddell	set Bryn Janke	+0.7
35	18-17	OHIO	STAN×7	Serve err	OHIO server		+0.6
36	19-17	STAN	STAN×7	Attack err	Emily Waddell	blk Ipar Kurt, Ella Andrews	+0.8
37	20-17	STAN	STAN×7	Kill	Ella Andrews	set Lilly Wagner	+0.6
38	21-17	STAN	STAN×7	Kill	Ipar Kurt	set Lilly Wagner	+0.4
39	22-17	STAN	STAN×7	Kill	Jordyn Harvey	set Lilly Wagner	+0.2
40	23-17	STAN	STAN×7	Attack err	Rose Mahin		+0.1
41	24-17	STAN	STAN×7	Attack err	Bryn Janke		+0.0
42	24-18	STAN	OHIO	Serve err	STAN server		+0.0
43	25-18	OHIO	STAN	Kill	Jordyn Harvey	set Lilly Wagner	+0.0
Set 2
1	1-0	OHIO	STAN	Kill	Ella Andrews	set Lilly Wagner	+0.2
2	1-1	STAN	OHIO	Kill	Cienna Lapsley	set Lillie Meinhart	+0.2
3	2-1	OHIO	STAN	Kill	Lilly Wagner	set Julia Blyashov	+0.2
4	2-2	STAN	OHIO	Kill	Cienna Lapsley	set Lillie Meinhart	+0.2
5	3-2	OHIO	STAN	Kill	Ipar Kurt	set Lilly Wagner	+0.2
6	3-3	STAN	OHIO×4	Kill	Gentry Brown	set Lillie Meinhart	+0.2
7	3-4	OHIO	OHIO×4	Kill	Gentry Brown	set Olivia Gardner	+0.3
8	3-5	OHIO	OHIO×4	Ace	OHIO server	aced Julia Blyashov	+0.4
9	3-6	OHIO	OHIO×4	Kill	Emily Waddell	set Bryn Janke	+0.5
10	4-6	OHIO	STAN	Kill	Lizzy Andrew	set Lilly Wagner	+0.3
11	4-7	STAN	OHIO	Kill	Olivia Gardner	set Bryn Janke	+0.4
12	4-8	OHIO	OHIO	Kill	Rose Mahin	set Gentry Brown	+0.6
13	5-8	OHIO	STAN	Bad set	Bryn Janke		+0.3
14	5-9	STAN	OHIO	Kill	Emily Waddell	set Bryn Janke	+0.4
15	5-10	OHIO	OHIO	Kill	Rose Mahin	set Bryn Janke	+0.6
16	6-10	OHIO	STAN	Kill	Ella Andrews	set Lilly Wagner	+0.3
17	6-11	STAN	OHIO	Kill	Rose Mahin	set Bryn Janke	+0.5
18	7-11	OHIO	STAN×3	Kill	Ipar Kurt	set Lilly Wagner	+0.3
19	8-11	STAN	STAN×3	Kill	Lizzy Andrew	set Lilly Wagner	+0.5
20	9-11	STAN	STAN×3	Ace	STAN server	aced Rose Mahin	+0.5
21	9-12	STAN	OHIO	Kill	Cienna Lapsley	set Lillie Meinhart	+0.5
22	10-12	OHIO	STAN	Serve err	OHIO server		+0.4
23	10-13	STAN	OHIO	Serve err	STAN server		+0.5
24	10-14	OHIO	OHIO	Kill	Bailey Blair		+0.7
25	11-14	OHIO	STAN	Kill	Lilly Wagner	set Julia Blyashov	+0.4
26	12-14	STAN	STAN	Attack err	Olivia Gardner	blk Lizzy Andrew	+0.6
27	12-15	STAN	OHIO	Kill	Olivia Gardner	set Lillie Meinhart	+0.5
28	13-15	OHIO	STAN×5	Attack err	Olivia Gardner		+0.4
29	14-15	STAN	STAN×5	Attack err	Gentry Brown		+0.6
30	15-15	STAN	STAN×5	Attack err	Gentry Brown		+0.6
31	16-15	STAN	STAN×5	Attack err	Gentry Brown		+0.5
32	17-15	STAN	STAN×5	Kill	Julia Blyashov	set Ella Andrews	+0.4
33	17-16	STAN	OHIO	Kill	Emily Waddell	set Bryn Janke	+0.3
34	18-16	OHIO	STAN	Kill	Julia Blyashov	set Lilly Wagner	+0.3
35	18-17	STAN	OHIO	Kill	Olivia Gardner	set Bryn Janke	+0.3
36	19-17	OHIO	STAN×7	Kill	Julia Blyashov	set Lilly Wagner	+0.3
37	20-17	STAN	STAN×7	Kill	Jordyn Harvey	set Gentry Brown	+0.4
38	21-17	STAN	STAN×7	Ace	STAN server	aced Rose Mahin	+0.2
39	22-17	STAN	STAN×7	Kill	Jordyn Harvey	set Ipar Kurt	+0.1
40	23-17	STAN	STAN×7	Kill	Jordyn Harvey	set Spencer Etzler	+0.0
41	24-17	STAN	STAN×7	Ace	STAN server	aced Rose Mahin	+0.0
42	25-17	STAN	STAN×7	Kill	Ipar Kurt	set Lilly Wagner	+0.0
Set 3
1	1-0	STAN	STAN	Kill	Ipar Kurt	set Spencer Etzler	+0.1
2	1-1	STAN	OHIO	Kill	Cienna Lapsley	set Lillie Meinhart	+0.1
3	2-1	OHIO	STAN	Kill	Lizzy Andrew	set Lilly Wagner	+0.1
4	3-1	STAN	STAN	Attack err	Gentry Brown	blk Lizzy Andrew, Lilly Wagner	+0.1
5	3-2	STAN	OHIO	Serve err	STAN server		+0.1
6	4-2	OHIO	STAN	Kill	Lizzy Andrew	set Lilly Wagner	+0.1
7	4-3	STAN	OHIO	Kill	Bailey Blair	set Lillie Meinhart	+0.1
8	5-3	OHIO	STAN×3	Kill	Lizzy Andrew	set Lilly Wagner	+0.1
9	6-3	STAN	STAN×3	Kill	Julia Blyashov	set Malyssa Cawa	+0.1
10	7-3	STAN	STAN×3	Attack err	Olivia Gardner	blk Ella Andrews	+0.1
11	7-4	STAN	OHIO	Kill	Emily Waddell	set Bryn Janke	+0.0
12	8-4	OHIO	STAN	Serve err	OHIO server		+0.0
13	8-5	STAN	OHIO	Kill	Rose Mahin	set Bryn Janke	+0.0
14	9-5	OHIO	STAN×3	Kill	Julia Blyashov	set Lilly Wagner	+0.0
15	10-5	STAN	STAN×3	Bad set	Bryn Janke		+0.0
16	11-5	STAN	STAN×3	Kill	Ella Andrews	set Lilly Wagner	+0.0
17	11-6	STAN	OHIO	Serve err	STAN server		+0.0
18	12-6	OHIO	STAN×6	Attack err	Rose Mahin		+0.0
19	13-6	STAN	STAN×6	Kill	Jordyn Harvey	set Spencer Etzler	+0.0
20	14-6	STAN	STAN×6	Kill	Ipar Kurt		+0.0
21	15-6	STAN	STAN×6	Kill	Kaci Demaria	set Spencer Etzler	+0.0
22	16-6	STAN	STAN×6	Ace	STAN server	aced Gentry Brown	+0.0
23	17-6	STAN	STAN×6	Kill	Kaci Demaria	set Julia Blyashov	+0.0
24	17-7	STAN	OHIO	Kill	Rose Mahin	set Lillie Meinhart	+0.0
25	17-8	OHIO	OHIO	Kill	Gentry Brown	set Rose Mahin	+0.0
26	18-8	OHIO	STAN	Bad set	Lillie Meinhart		+0.0
27	18-9	STAN	OHIO×4	Kill	Bailey Blair	set Lillie Meinhart	+0.0
28	18-10	OHIO	OHIO×4	Ace	OHIO server	aced Koko Kirsch	+0.0
29	18-11	OHIO	OHIO×4	Attack err	Julia Blyashov		+0.0
30	18-12	OHIO	OHIO×4	Attack err	Kaci Demaria	blk Bailey Blair, Olivia Gardner	+0.0
31	19-12	OHIO	STAN	Attack err	Bailey Blair		+0.0
32	19-13	STAN	OHIO	Kill	Bailey Blair	set Lillie Meinhart	+0.0
33	19-14	OHIO	OHIO	Kill	Gentry Brown	set Lillie Meinhart	+0.0
34	20-14	OHIO	STAN	Kill	Julia Blyashov	set Simone Roslon	+0.0
35	21-14	STAN	STAN	Attack err	Olivia Gardner		+0.0
36	21-15	STAN	OHIO	Kill	Bailey Blair	set Lillie Meinhart	+0.0
37	21-16	OHIO	OHIO	Attack err	Ella Andrews		+0.0
38	22-16	OHIO	STAN×4	Kill	Julia Blyashov	set Lilly Wagner	+0.0
39	23-16	STAN	STAN×4	Attack err	Rose Mahin	blk Sarah Hickman, Ella Andrews	+0.0
40	24-16	STAN	STAN×4	Attack err	Olivia Gardner	blk Sidney Duncan, Julia Blyashov	+0.0
41	25-16	STAN	STAN×4	Kill	Sarah Hickman	set Spencer Etzler	+0.0

Score shown after each rally, Stanford first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.