FinalFri, Aug 28, 2026

AwayMEAC

3:0

HomeSWAC

N.C. Central def. Ark.-Pine Bluff 3–0

(25-20, 26-24, 25-17)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
NC CEN	25	26	25	3
ARK PB	20	24	17	0

RallyIQ model

Win probability

ARK PB above 50 · NC CEN below

Biggest swing: 4.4% to N.C. Central — set 2, NC CEN 24-24 ARK PB. Attack error by Haley Reeves. ARK PB win probability 13% → 9%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

NC CEN 88.4%11.6% ARK PB

N.C. Central wins

3-0

41.8%

3-1

31.6%

3-2

14.9%

Ark.-Pine Bluff wins

3-0

1.6%

3-1

3.6%

3-2

6.4%

NC CEN break %: 51.6% vs this opp
ARK PB break %: 42.4% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Haley ReevesAttack error+4.4%
Attack error by Haley Reeves
Set 2 · NC CEN 24-24 ARK PB · NC CEN 87% → 91%
02
Allyson RouseKill+3.6%
Kill by Allyson Rouse (set by Lusiana Damuni)
Set 2 · NC CEN 25-24 ARK PB · NC CEN 91% → 95%
03
Ashanti ButlerKill+3.1%
Kill by Ashanti Butler (set by Ava Miller)
Set 2 · NC CEN 21-23 ARK PB · ARK PB 11% → 14%
04
Shalyn BellKill+3.0%
Kill by Shalyn Bell (set by Lusiana Damuni)
Set 2 · NC CEN 26-24 ARK PB · NC CEN 95% → 98%
05
Tabitha NewlinAttack error+2.7%
Attack error by Tabitha Newlin
Set 2 · NC CEN 21-22 ARK PB · ARK PB 8% → 11%
06
ARK PB serverAce+2.7%
Ark.-Pine Bluff ace on Isabella Rodriguez
Set 2 · NC CEN 21-24 ARK PB · ARK PB 14% → 16%
07
Haley ReevesAttack error+2.3%
Attack error by Haley Reeves
Set 2 · NC CEN 23-24 ARK PB · NC CEN 85% → 87%
08
Kaylen RobinsonKill+2.1%
Kill by Kaylen Robinson (set by Ava Miller)
Set 2 · NC CEN 21-21 ARK PB · ARK PB 6% → 8%

Official NCAA box

Box score

N.C. Centralaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
3Allyson RouseMB	3	10	2	14	.571	0	0	3	1	0	1	2	2	12
7Aniah BassOH	3	6	1	10	.500	0	0	0	5	0	0	1	0.5	6.5
8Peyton JenkinsMB	3	5	1	7	.571	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	5.5
6Breylan FairleyS	3	0	1	4	-.250	22	2	1	5	0	0	0	0	2
16Talia EmmenOH	2	7	1	15	.400	0	0	2	7	1	0	0	0	7
12Shalyn BellOH	2	3	0	8	.375	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	3
22Tabitha NewlinOH	3	7	5	22	.091	0	0	0	3	1	0	1	0.5	7.5
13Lusiana DamuniS	3	1	2	4	-.250	19	3	1	6	0	0	0	0	4
4Hailey GibbonsDS	3	1	0	3	.333	1	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	1
11Jayla EgertonDS	3	0	0	0	–	1	1	0	9	0	0	0	0	1
14Mya SmithOH	3	0	3	4	-.750	0	0	0	2	0	0	1	0.5	0.5
10Kayla RileyOH	2	5	3	13	.154	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	5
17Alex FullerDS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0
1Isabella RodriguezDS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0
Team totals		45	19	104	.250	44	6	9	43	6	1	6	4	76

Ark.-Pine Bluffhome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
10Ashanti ButlerMB	3	7	3	18	.222	0	0	0	2	0	0	3	1.5	8.5
20Kennedy AdamsMB	3	3	0	8	.375	1	3	1	0	0	0	1	0.5	6.5
5Martyna LubowiczS	3	1	0	5	.200	9	3	2	5	0	0	0	0	4
8Zuzanna ZietekOPP	3	3	1	8	.250	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.5	3.5
2Haley ReevesOH	2	4	6	16	-.125	0	0	0	2	0	0	1	0.5	4.5
6Kinsley HooperL/DS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0
12Kaylen RobinsonOH	3	4	1	11	.273	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	2	6
1Jnireah HenryL/DS	3	0	0	2	.000	3	0	2	7	2	0	0	0	0
22Karli GloverOH	2	2	3	13	-.077	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	2
14Ngozi NwosuMB	2	2	2	11	.000	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	2
13Ava MillerS	2	0	1	1	-1.000	8	0	0	5	1	0	0	0	0
7London KingMB	1	0	0	0	–	2	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
4Trinity GibbsL/DS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		26	17	93	.097	24	6	6	27	6	1	8	5	61

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 8 NC CEN · ARK PB 9

Set 1

25-20

Longest run 4 NC CENARK PB 3

Set 2

26-24

Longest run 8 NC CENARK PB 9

Set 3

25-17

Longest run 8 NC CENARK PB 3

Bars above the line = Ark.-Pine Bluff leads, below = N.C. Central leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

N.C. Central

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	46%6/13	64%9/14
2	67%6/9	54%7/13
3	75%6/8	54%7/13
4	63%5/8	50%5/10
5	71%5/7	64%9/14
6	29%5/17	55%6/11
All	53%33/62	57%43/75

Ark.-Pine Bluff

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	55%6/11	50%5/10
2	40%6/15	60%9/15
3	55%6/11	0%0/6
4	29%5/17	25%2/8
5	63%5/8	44%4/9
6	31%4/13	64%9/14
All	43%32/75	47%29/62

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

137 rallies

Rally log

#	NC CEN-ARK PB	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	NC CEN	NC CEN	Attack err	Haley Reeves		+1.0
2	1-1	NC CEN	ARK PB	Kill	Ashanti Butler	set Martyna Lubowicz	+1.0
3	1-2	ARK PB	ARK PB	Kill	Haley Reeves	set Jnireah Henry	+1.2
4	2-2	ARK PB	NC CEN	Kill	Allyson Rouse	set Breylan Fairley	+1.0
5	2-3	NC CEN	ARK PB	Kill	Haley Reeves	set Martyna Lubowicz	+1.1
6	3-3	ARK PB	NC CEN	Kill	Talia Emmen	set Breylan Fairley	+1.0
7	3-4	NC CEN	ARK PB	Kill	Ashanti Butler	set Martyna Lubowicz	+1.2
8	3-5	ARK PB	ARK PB	Attack err	Peyton Jenkins		+1.5
9	4-5	ARK PB	NC CEN	Serve err	ARK PB server		+1.2
10	4-6	NC CEN	ARK PB	Attack err	Lusiana Damuni		+1.4
11	4-7	ARK PB	ARK PB	Attack err	Mya Smith	blk Kaylen Robinson	+1.6
12	5-7	ARK PB	NC CEN	Kill	Talia Emmen	set Hailey Gibbons	+1.3
13	6-7	NC CEN	NC CEN	Attack err	Ngozi Nwosu		+1.4
14	6-8	NC CEN	ARK PB	Kill	Kaylen Robinson	set Ava Miller	+1.5
15	7-8	ARK PB	NC CEN	Kill	Hailey Gibbons		+1.3
16	8-8	NC CEN	NC CEN	Kill	Shalyn Bell	set Lusiana Damuni	+1.4
17	8-9	NC CEN	ARK PB	Kill	Haley Reeves	set Ava Miller	+1.4
18	9-9	ARK PB	NC CEN×3	Kill	Allyson Rouse	set Lusiana Damuni	+1.3
19	10-9	NC CEN	NC CEN×3	Attack err	Haley Reeves		+1.4
20	11-9	NC CEN	NC CEN×3	Ace	NC CEN server	aced Jnireah Henry	+1.2
21	11-10	NC CEN	ARK PB	Kill	Ashanti Butler	set Ava Miller	+1.2
22	11-11	ARK PB	ARK PB	Ace	ARK PB server	aced Hailey Gibbons	+1.5
23	12-11	ARK PB	NC CEN	Kill	Allyson Rouse	set Breylan Fairley	+1.3
24	12-12	NC CEN	ARK PB	Serve err	NC CEN server		+1.4
25	13-12	ARK PB	NC CEN×4	Kill	Allyson Rouse	set Breylan Fairley	+1.4
26	14-12	NC CEN	NC CEN×4	Kill	Talia Emmen	set Breylan Fairley	+1.4
27	15-12	NC CEN	NC CEN×4	Kill	Aniah Bass	set Breylan Fairley	+1.2
28	16-12	NC CEN	NC CEN×4	Kill	Peyton Jenkins	set Breylan Fairley	+1.0
29	16-13	NC CEN	ARK PB	Serve err	NC CEN server		+0.8
30	17-13	ARK PB	NC CEN	Kill	Aniah Bass	set Breylan Fairley	+0.9
31	18-13	NC CEN	NC CEN	Attack err	Haley Reeves		+0.8
32	18-14	NC CEN	ARK PB	Attack err	Kayla Riley		+0.5
33	18-15	ARK PB	ARK PB	Kill	Ngozi Nwosu		+0.9
34	19-15	ARK PB	NC CEN	Kill	Peyton Jenkins	set Lusiana Damuni	+1.0
35	19-16	NC CEN	ARK PB	Kill	Kennedy Adams	set Ava Miller	+0.8
36	19-17	ARK PB	ARK PB	Attack err	Peyton Jenkins		+1.3
37	20-17	ARK PB	NC CEN×4	Kill	Tabitha Newlin	set Lusiana Damuni	+1.4
38	21-17	NC CEN	NC CEN×4	Kill	Tabitha Newlin	set Lusiana Damuni	+1.1
39	22-17	NC CEN	NC CEN×4	Attack err	Kaylen Robinson	blk Tabitha Newlin, Allyson Rouse	+0.7
40	23-17	NC CEN	NC CEN×4	Ace	NC CEN server	aced Jnireah Henry	+0.4
41	23-18	NC CEN	ARK PB×3	Attack err	Tabitha Newlin		+0.1
42	23-19	ARK PB	ARK PB×3	Ace	ARK PB server	aced Talia Emmen	+0.3
43	23-20	ARK PB	ARK PB×3	Attack err	Lusiana Damuni	blk Haley Reeves, Ashanti Butler	+0.6
44	24-20	ARK PB	NC CEN	Kill	Tabitha Newlin	set Kayla Riley	+0.9
45	25-20	NC CEN	NC CEN	Kill	Tabitha Newlin	set Lusiana Damuni	+0.3
Set 2
1	0-1	ARK PB	ARK PB	Attack err	Allyson Rouse		+0.8
2	1-1	ARK PB	NC CEN	Kill	Allyson Rouse	set Breylan Fairley	+0.7
3	1-2	NC CEN	ARK PB	Serve err	NC CEN server		+0.8
4	2-2	ARK PB	NC CEN×3	Kill	Tabitha Newlin	set Breylan Fairley	+0.7
5	3-2	NC CEN	NC CEN×3	Kill	Tabitha Newlin	set Jayla Egerton	+0.7
6	4-2	NC CEN	NC CEN×3	Kill	Talia Emmen	set Breylan Fairley	+0.7
7	4-3	NC CEN	ARK PB	Kill	Zuzanna Zietek	set Jnireah Henry	+0.6
8	5-3	ARK PB	NC CEN	Serve err	ARK PB server		+0.6
9	5-4	NC CEN	ARK PB	Kill	Zuzanna Zietek	set Martyna Lubowicz	+0.7
10	6-4	ARK PB	NC CEN	Kill	Aniah Bass	set Breylan Fairley	+0.6
11	6-5	NC CEN	ARK PB	Kill	Karli Glover	set Ava Miller	+0.7
12	6-6	ARK PB	ARK PB	Kill	Kennedy Adams		+0.9
13	7-6	ARK PB	NC CEN	Kill	Talia Emmen	set Lusiana Damuni	+0.7
14	8-6	NC CEN	NC CEN	Attack err	Haley Reeves		+0.8
15	8-7	NC CEN	ARK PB	Serve err	NC CEN server		+0.7
16	9-7	ARK PB	NC CEN	Serve err	ARK PB server		+0.7
17	9-8	NC CEN	ARK PB	Attack err	Tabitha Newlin	blk Ashanti Butler, Kaylen Robinson	+0.7
18	10-8	ARK PB	NC CEN	Kill	Allyson Rouse	set Lusiana Damuni	+0.7
19	10-9	NC CEN	ARK PB×4	Kill	Ashanti Butler	set Martyna Lubowicz	+0.8
20	10-10	ARK PB	ARK PB×4	Attack err	Allyson Rouse		+1.0
21	10-11	ARK PB	ARK PB×4	Kill	Martyna Lubowicz	set Jnireah Henry	+1.2
22	10-12	ARK PB	ARK PB×4	Attack err	Tabitha Newlin		+1.3
23	11-12	ARK PB	NC CEN	Kill	Tabitha Newlin	set Breylan Fairley	+1.0
24	11-13	NC CEN	ARK PB	Attack err	Talia Emmen		+1.2
25	12-13	ARK PB	NC CEN	Kill	Allyson Rouse	set Breylan Fairley	+1.1
26	12-14	NC CEN	ARK PB	Serve err	NC CEN server		+1.3
27	13-14	ARK PB	NC CEN×8	Kill	Talia Emmen	set Breylan Fairley	+1.1
28	14-14	NC CEN	NC CEN×8	Kill	Lusiana Damuni	set Breylan Fairley	+1.3
29	15-14	NC CEN	NC CEN×8	Attack err	Karli Glover		+1.2
30	16-14	NC CEN	NC CEN×8	Attack err	Karli Glover		+1.1
31	17-14	NC CEN	NC CEN×8	Attack err	Ava Miller		+0.9
32	18-14	NC CEN	NC CEN×8	Attack err	Karli Glover	blk Mya Smith, Peyton Jenkins	+0.7
33	19-14	NC CEN	NC CEN×8	Kill	Talia Emmen	set Lusiana Damuni	+0.5
34	20-14	NC CEN	NC CEN×8	Ace	NC CEN server	aced Ava Miller	+0.3
35	20-15	NC CEN	ARK PB	Serve err	NC CEN server		+0.2
36	21-15	ARK PB	NC CEN	Kill	Peyton Jenkins	set Lusiana Damuni	+0.3
37	21-16	NC CEN	ARK PB×9	Serve err	NC CEN server		+0.2
38	21-17	ARK PB	ARK PB×9	Attack err	Mya Smith		+0.3
39	21-18	ARK PB	ARK PB×9	Kill	Haley Reeves	set Ava Miller	+0.6
40	21-19	ARK PB	ARK PB×9	Attack err	Tabitha Newlin	blk Ashanti Butler, Kaylen Robinson	+1.0
41	21-20	ARK PB	ARK PB×9	Kill	Kaylen Robinson	set Kennedy Adams	+1.5
42	21-21	ARK PB	ARK PB×9	Kill	Kaylen Robinson	set Ava Miller	+2.1
43	21-22	ARK PB	ARK PB×9	Attack err	Tabitha Newlin		+2.7
44	21-23	ARK PB	ARK PB×9	Kill	Ashanti Butler	set Ava Miller	+3.1
45	21-24	ARK PB	ARK PB×9	Ace	ARK PB server	aced Isabella Rodriguez	+2.7
46	22-24	ARK PB	NC CEN×5	Kill	Shalyn Bell	set Lusiana Damuni	+1.0
47	23-24	NC CEN	NC CEN×5	Attack err	Haley Reeves		+2.3
48	24-24	NC CEN	NC CEN×5	Attack err	Haley Reeves		+4.4
49	25-24	NC CEN	NC CEN×5	Kill	Allyson Rouse	set Lusiana Damuni	+3.6
50	26-24	NC CEN	NC CEN×5	Kill	Shalyn Bell	set Lusiana Damuni	+3.0
Set 3
1	1-0	NC CEN	NC CEN	Ace	NC CEN server	aced Zuzanna Zietek	+0.3
2	1-1	NC CEN	ARK PB×3	Kill	Karli Glover	set Martyna Lubowicz	+0.3
3	1-2	ARK PB	ARK PB×3	Attack err	Aniah Bass		+0.4
4	1-3	ARK PB	ARK PB×3	Ace	ARK PB server	aced Team	+0.5
5	2-3	ARK PB	NC CEN	Serve err	ARK PB server		+0.4
6	2-4	NC CEN	ARK PB	Kill	Zuzanna Zietek	set Martyna Lubowicz	+0.4
7	3-4	ARK PB	NC CEN×3	Kill	Kayla Riley	set Breylan Fairley	+0.4
8	4-4	NC CEN	NC CEN×3	Attack err	Ashanti Butler		+0.4
9	5-4	NC CEN	NC CEN×3	Bad set	Martyna Lubowicz		+0.4
10	5-5	NC CEN	ARK PB	Serve err	NC CEN server		+0.4
11	5-6	ARK PB	ARK PB	Attack err	Kayla Riley	blk Zuzanna Zietek, Kennedy Adams	+0.5
12	6-6	ARK PB	NC CEN×5	Kill	Kayla Riley	set Breylan Fairley	+0.4
13	7-6	NC CEN	NC CEN×5	Ace	NC CEN server	aced Karli Glover	+0.4
14	8-6	NC CEN	NC CEN×5	Kill	Kayla Riley	set Lusiana Damuni	+0.4
15	9-6	NC CEN	NC CEN×5	Ace	NC CEN server	aced Kinsley Hooper	+0.3
16	10-6	NC CEN	NC CEN×5	Kill	Kayla Riley	set Lusiana Damuni	+0.3
17	10-7	NC CEN	ARK PB	Kill	Kennedy Adams	set Martyna Lubowicz	+0.2
18	10-8	ARK PB	ARK PB	Attack err	Kayla Riley		+0.3
19	11-8	ARK PB	NC CEN	Serve err	ARK PB server		+0.3
20	12-8	NC CEN	NC CEN	Kill	Peyton Jenkins	set Lusiana Damuni	+0.3
21	12-9	NC CEN	ARK PB	Serve err	NC CEN server		+0.2
22	13-9	ARK PB	NC CEN	Kill	Peyton Jenkins	set Lusiana Damuni	+0.3
23	14-9	NC CEN	NC CEN	Kill	Allyson Rouse	set Lusiana Damuni	+0.2
24	14-10	NC CEN	ARK PB×3	Kill	Ngozi Nwosu	set London King	+0.2
25	14-11	ARK PB	ARK PB×3	Attack err	Mya Smith		+0.3
26	14-12	ARK PB	ARK PB×3	Ace	ARK PB server	aced Tabitha Newlin	+0.4
27	15-12	ARK PB	NC CEN	Kill	Allyson Rouse	set Lusiana Damuni	+0.4
28	15-13	NC CEN	ARK PB×3	Kill	Kaylen Robinson	set London King	+0.3
29	15-14	ARK PB	ARK PB×3	Ace	ARK PB server	aced Alex Fuller	+0.5
30	15-15	ARK PB	ARK PB×3	Kill	Ashanti Butler	set Martyna Lubowicz	+0.6
31	16-15	ARK PB	NC CEN×8	Serve err	ARK PB server		+0.5
32	17-15	NC CEN	NC CEN×8	Kill	Aniah Bass	set Breylan Fairley	+0.6
33	18-15	NC CEN	NC CEN×8	Attack err	Ashanti Butler	blk Aniah Bass, Allyson Rouse	+0.5
34	19-15	NC CEN	NC CEN×8	Kill	Kayla Riley	set Breylan Fairley	+0.4
35	20-15	NC CEN	NC CEN×8	Attack err	Ashanti Butler		+0.3
36	21-15	NC CEN	NC CEN×8	Attack err	Zuzanna Zietek		+0.2
37	22-15	NC CEN	NC CEN×8	Attack err	Ngozi Nwosu	blk Allyson Rouse	+0.1
38	23-15	NC CEN	NC CEN×8	Bad set	Martyna Lubowicz		+0.0
39	23-16	NC CEN	ARK PB	Attack err	Breylan Fairley		+0.0
40	24-16	ARK PB	NC CEN	Kill	Aniah Bass	set Breylan Fairley	+0.0
41	24-17	NC CEN	ARK PB	Kill	Ashanti Butler	set Zuzanna Zietek	+0.0
42	25-17	ARK PB	NC CEN	Kill	Aniah Bass	set Breylan Fairley	+0.0

Score shown after each rally, N.C. Central first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.