Final · 4 setsFri, Oct 2, 2026Watch on ESPN+

Iowa St. def. Arizona 3–1

RallyIQ pre-match: Arizona 55.5% · upsetLocked before first serve (Oct 2, 7:56 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Iowa St. won at Arizona 3-1 (19-25, 25-20, 25-16, 25-10) on Fri, Oct 2, 2026. Iowa St.'s Nayeli Gonzalez led with 16 kills.

Data through · final Oct 2

Set1234Sets
IOWAST192525253
ARIZ252016101

Match story · written from the play-by-play

Iowa St. won 6 of the last 8 rallies to close out Arizona.

The match turned twice. Numbers are Iowa St.'s win probability from the RallyIQ model, rally by rally. Arizona went in at 56% by RallyIQ.

  1. Turning point 1: Set 3 · Iowa St. 7–7 Arizona

    Iowa St. scored 6 straight to go from 7–7 to a 13–7 lead. The match swung to Iowa St.

    Iowa St. 46% → 66%

  2. Turning point 2: Set 4 · Iowa St. 5–2 Arizona

    Iowa St. scored 8 straight to stretch a 5–2 lead to 13–2.

    Iowa St. 84% → 99%

Arizona above 50Iowa St. belowMax swing 4.2%

Iowa St.Arizona

Sideout %
Iowa St. 62.5·Arizona 47.3
Break %
Iowa St. 52.7·Arizona 37.5
Hitting
Iowa St. .168·Arizona .029
Longest run
Iowa St. 8·Arizona 4

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Arizona above 50 · Iowa St. below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100+4.2% ARIZrally 165 · set 4

Biggest swing: 4.2% to Arizona — set 1, IOWAST 16-18 ARIZ. Attack error by Alea Goolsby. ARIZ win probability 59% → 63%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

IOWAST 60.0%40.0% ARIZ

Iowa St. wins

3-0
17.2%
3-1
22.9%
3-2
19.9%

Arizona wins

3-0
8.7%
3-1
14.6%
3-2
16.7%
IOWAST break %
42.4% vs this opp
ARIZ break %
40.4% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Alea GoolsbyAttack error+4.2%

    Attack error by Alea Goolsby

    Set 1 · IOWAST 16-18 ARIZ · ARIZ 59% → 63%

  2. 02

    Carlie Cisneros stuffed by Daaliyah Kemp & Pam McCune

    Set 3 · IOWAST 9-7 ARIZ · IOWAST 49% → 53%

  3. 03
    Daaliyah KempKill+4.1%

    Kill by Daaliyah Kemp (set by Ella Florez)

    Set 1 · IOWAST 16-16 ARIZ · IOWAST 40% → 44%

  4. 04
    Daaliyah KempKill+4.0%

    Kill by Daaliyah Kemp (set by Ella Florez)

    Set 3 · IOWAST 10-7 ARIZ · IOWAST 53% → 57%

  5. 05

    Kill by Carlie Cisneros (set by Gigi Whann)

    Set 3 · IOWAST 6-6 ARIZ · ARIZ 50% → 54%

  6. 06
    Carlie CisnerosAttack error+3.8%

    Attack error by Carlie Cisneros

    Set 3 · IOWAST 6-4 ARIZ · IOWAST 48% → 52%

  7. 07

    Kill by Nayeli Gonzalez (set by Rachel Van Gorp)

    Set 3 · IOWAST 5-4 ARIZ · IOWAST 45% → 48%

  8. 08
    Iowa St.Ace+3.7%

    Iowa St. ace

    Set 4 · IOWAST 3-1 ARIZ · IOWAST 75% → 79%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
416738.2370004000016
411936.05612017000013
45116.250000201438
4116.000000002234
4000–1911800001
35921-.19001281010.56.5
410015.6670001004212
4001.0007201700002
4000–23111100001
3000–102100000
24110.30000230212.56.5
1000–000000000
1000–000000000
Team totals5228143.16851787235121194
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
481138-.07902170111.511.5
4408.500000104259
46230.133103701017
42412-.167112101225
4000–1501900000
35119.211000301227
4000–000000000
4000–4001500000
4000–801800000
33318.00000000010.53.5
2137-.286000000001
1113.000000100001
1011-1.000000010000
1000–000000000
Team totals3026136.0292938527881271

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 8 IOWAST · ARIZ 4

Set 1

19-25

Longest run 4 IOWASTARIZ 4

Set 2

25-20

Longest run 6 IOWASTARIZ 3

Set 3

25-16

Longest run 6 IOWASTARIZ 4

Set 4

25-10

Longest run 8 IOWASTARIZ 2

Bars above the line = Arizona leads, below = Iowa St. leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Iowa St.

SlotSideout %Break %
1
69%9/13
33%4/12
2
73%8/11
47%7/15
3
70%7/10
67%14/21
4
64%7/11
59%10/17
5
50%7/14
56%9/16
6
54%7/13
42%5/12
All
63%45/72
53%49/93

Arizona

SlotSideout %Break %
1
64%9/14
36%4/11
2
50%8/16
36%5/14
3
37%7/19
20%2/10
4
29%7/24
36%4/11
5
54%7/13
42%5/12
6
86%6/7
50%7/14
All
47%44/93
38%27/72

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

165 rallies

#IOWAST-ARIZSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
11-0ARIZIOWASTKillMacie Lupkesset Ava Martin+1.8
21-1IOWASTARIZAttack errAlea Goolsby+1.8
32-1ARIZIOWASTServe errArizona+1.8
43-1IOWASTIOWASTAttack errCarlie Cisneros+2.7
53-2IOWASTARIZKillCarlie Cisnerosset Maria Olga Siapani+1.7
63-3ARIZARIZBlockedAlea Goolsbyblk Kristen Dear, Kennedy Osunsanmi+2.7
74-3ARIZIOWASTKillNayeli Gonzalezset Ava Martin+1.9
84-4IOWASTARIZKillKennedy Osunsanmiset Maria Olga Siapani+1.9
94-5ARIZARIZAttack errPam McCune+2.8
105-5ARIZIOWAST×4KillAlea Goolsbyset Ella Florez+1.9
116-5IOWASTIOWAST×4AceIowa St.+2.9
127-5IOWASTIOWAST×4KillDaaliyah Kempset Ella Florez+2.9
138-5IOWASTIOWAST×4KillDaaliyah Kempset Ella Florez+2.8
148-6IOWASTARIZ×3Attack errNayeli Ti'a+1.8
158-7ARIZARIZ×3KillDestiny Ndam-Simpsonset Harmony Sample+2.8
168-8ARIZARIZ×3AceArizonaaced Alea Goolsby+3.0
179-8ARIZIOWAST×3Attack errRenee Jones+2.2
1810-8IOWASTIOWAST×3KillNayeli Ti'aset Ella Florez+3.2
1911-8IOWASTIOWAST×3Attack errKristen Dear+3.0
2011-9IOWASTARIZ×4KillRenee Jonesset Harmony Sample+1.9
2111-10ARIZARIZ×4KillRenee Jonesset Kristen Dear+3.1
2211-11ARIZARIZ×4BlockedNayeli Ti'ablk Journey Tucker+3.3
2311-12ARIZARIZ×4AceArizona+3.4
2412-12ARIZIOWASTKillNayeli Ti'aset Ella Florez+2.4
2512-13IOWASTARIZKillJourney Tuckerset Harmony Sample+2.4
2612-14ARIZARIZKillKennedy Osunsanmiset Gigi Whann+3.5
2713-14ARIZIOWASTKillNayeli Gonzalezset Ava Martin+2.2
2813-15IOWASTARIZKillKennedy Osunsanmiset Maria Olga Siapani+2.5
2914-15ARIZIOWASTServe errArizona+2.3
3014-16IOWASTARIZBlockedNayeli Gonzalezblk Carlie Cisneros+2.6
3115-16ARIZIOWASTKillAlea Goolsbyset Rachel Van Gorp+2.4
3216-16IOWASTIOWASTKillDaaliyah Kempset Ella Florez+4.1
3316-17IOWASTARIZ×3Attack errAlea Goolsby+3.0
3416-18ARIZARIZ×3Attack errAlea Goolsby+4.2
3516-19ARIZARIZ×3Attack errAlea Goolsby+3.7
3617-19ARIZIOWASTKillDaaliyah Kempset Ella Florez+2.0
3717-20IOWASTARIZ×3Serve errIowa St.+2.6
3817-21ARIZARIZ×3KillRenee Jonesset Harmony Sample+2.9
3917-22ARIZARIZ×3AceArizona+1.7
4018-22ARIZIOWASTKillNayeli Ti'aset Ella Florez+0.6
4118-23IOWASTARIZKillKristen Dearset Harmony Sample+1.0
4219-23ARIZIOWASTKillNayeli Ti'aset Ella Florez+0.4
4319-24IOWASTARIZServe errIowa St.+0.8
4419-25ARIZARIZBlockedNayeli Ti'ablk Destiny Ndam-Simpson+0.3
Set 2
10-1IOWASTARIZKillDestiny Ndam-Simpsonset Maria Olga Siapani+1.6
20-2ARIZARIZAttack errAlea Goolsby+2.4
31-2ARIZIOWASTKillNayeli Gonzalezset Ava Martin+1.6
42-2IOWASTIOWASTKillNayeli Gonzalezset Ava Martin+2.4
52-3IOWASTARIZBlockedNayeli Gonzalezblk Journey Tucker+1.7
63-3ARIZIOWASTKillNayeli Gonzalezset Ava Martin+1.7
73-4IOWASTARIZKillCarlie Cisnerosset Maria Olga Siapani+1.8
84-4ARIZIOWAST×3KillNayeli Gonzalezset Rachel Van Gorp+1.8
95-4IOWASTIOWAST×3Attack errRenee Jones+2.7
106-4IOWASTIOWAST×3KillAlea Goolsbyset Ella Florez+2.7
116-5IOWASTARIZServe errIowa St.+1.8
127-5ARIZIOWASTServe errArizona+1.9
137-6IOWASTARIZKillDestiny Ndam-Simpsonset Gigi Whann+1.8
147-7ARIZARIZKillJourney Tuckerset Ella Florez+2.8
158-7ARIZIOWASTServe errArizona+2.0
168-8IOWASTARIZ×3Bad setElla Florez+2.0
178-9ARIZARIZ×3BlockedNayeli Ti'ablk Kennedy Osunsanmi+2.9
188-10ARIZARIZ×3KillDestiny Ndam-Simpsonset Maria Olga Siapani+2.9
199-10ARIZIOWASTKillNayeli Ti'aset Ella Florez+1.9
209-11IOWASTARIZAttack errNayeli Ti'a+2.0
2110-11ARIZIOWASTServe errArizona+1.9
2211-11IOWASTIOWASTKillNayeli Gonzalezset Rachel Van Gorp+3.1
2311-12IOWASTARIZKillCarlie Cisnerosset Maria Olga Siapani+2.2
2412-12ARIZIOWAST×3KillAlea Goolsbyset Ava Martin+2.2
2513-12IOWASTIOWAST×3Bad setMaria Olga Siapani+3.4
2614-12IOWASTIOWAST×3KillNayeli Gonzalezset Ava Martin+3.4
2714-13IOWASTARIZKillCarlie Cisnerosset Maria Olga Siapani+2.2
2815-13ARIZIOWAST×6Attack errRenee Jones+2.5
2916-13IOWASTIOWAST×6Attack errCarlie Cisneros+3.4
3017-13IOWASTIOWAST×6KillDaaliyah Kempset Ella Florez+2.9
3118-13IOWASTIOWAST×6AceIowa St.aced Britt Carlson+2.2
3219-13IOWASTIOWAST×6BlockedBritt Carlsonblk Pam McCune, Daaliyah Kemp+1.6
3320-13IOWASTIOWAST×6BlockedCarlie Cisnerosblk Pam McCune, Alea Goolsby+1.0
3420-14IOWASTARIZKillKristen Dearset Harmony Sample+0.3
3520-15ARIZARIZBlockedAlea Goolsbyblk Kristen Dear+0.8
3621-15ARIZIOWASTKillDaaliyah Kempset Ella Florez+0.9
3721-16IOWASTARIZServe errIowa St.+0.4
3821-17ARIZARIZBlockedNayeli Ti'ablk Journey Tucker+1.1
3922-17ARIZIOWASTServe errArizona+1.3
4022-18IOWASTARIZKillJourney Tuckerset Harmony Sample+0.6
4123-18ARIZIOWASTKillDaaliyah Kempset Ella Florez+1.1
4224-18IOWASTIOWASTKillNayeli Ti'aset Ava Martin+0.6
4324-19IOWASTARIZAttack errMacie Lupkes+0.1
4424-20ARIZARIZBlockedNayeli Gonzalezblk Journey Tucker, Carlie Cisneros+0.3
4525-20ARIZIOWASTKillNayeli Ti'aset Ava Martin+0.5
Set 3
11-0ARIZIOWAST×3BlockedDestiny Ndam-Simpsonblk Macie Lupkes+2.4
22-0IOWASTIOWAST×3BlockedKennedy Osunsanmiblk Macie Lupkes+3.5
33-0IOWASTIOWAST×3KillAlea Goolsbyset Ava Martin+3.4
43-1IOWASTARIZ×4KillDestiny Ndam-Simpsonset Gigi Whann+2.2
53-2ARIZARIZ×4Bad setMacie Lupkes+3.4
63-3ARIZARIZ×4Attack errAlea Goolsby+3.6
73-4ARIZARIZ×4Attack errAlea Goolsby+3.6
84-4ARIZIOWAST×3KillNayeli Gonzalezset Ava Martin+2.5
95-4IOWASTIOWAST×3KillNayeli Gonzalezset Rachel Van Gorp+3.8
106-4IOWASTIOWAST×3Attack errCarlie Cisneros+3.8
116-5IOWASTARIZAttack errNayeli Gonzalez+2.5
126-6ARIZARIZKillCarlie Cisnerosset Gigi Whann+3.8
137-6ARIZIOWASTKillPam McCuneset Ava Martin+2.7
147-7IOWASTARIZBlockedMesaiya Bettisblk Kristen Dear, Kennedy Osunsanmi+2.7
158-7ARIZIOWAST×6Serve errArizona+2.8
169-7IOWASTIOWAST×6BlockedCarlie Cisnerosblk Daaliyah Kemp, Pam McCune+4.1
1710-7IOWASTIOWAST×6KillDaaliyah Kempset Ella Florez+4.0
1811-7IOWASTIOWAST×6BlockedCarlie Cisnerosblk Daaliyah Kemp, Pam McCune+3.6
1912-7IOWASTIOWAST×6KillDaaliyah Kempset Ella Florez+3.2
2013-7IOWASTIOWAST×6KillPam McCune+2.6
2113-8IOWASTARIZServe errIowa St.+1.3
2214-8ARIZIOWASTKillNayeli Ti'aset Ella Florez+1.8
2314-9IOWASTARIZAttack errNayeli Ti'a+1.3
2414-10ARIZARIZBlockedNayeli Ti'ablk Journey Tucker, Renee Jones+2.5
2515-10ARIZIOWASTKillNayeli Ti'aset Ella Florez+2.2
2615-11IOWASTARIZBlockedNayeli Gonzalezblk Journey Tucker+1.7
2716-11ARIZIOWASTKillNayeli Gonzalezset Ava Martin+2.2
2816-12IOWASTARIZAttack errNayeli Gonzalez+1.6
2917-12ARIZIOWASTKillNayeli Gonzalezset Nayeli Ti'a+2.2
3017-13IOWASTARIZKillKennedy Osunsanmiset Maria Olga Siapani+1.6
3118-13ARIZIOWASTKillNayeli Gonzalezset Ava Martin+2.2
3218-14IOWASTARIZKillKennedy Osunsanmiset Maria Olga Siapani+1.5
3319-14ARIZIOWASTKillPam McCuneset Ella Florez+2.2
3419-15IOWASTARIZKillCarlie Cisnerosset Destiny Ndam-Simpson+1.4
3520-15ARIZIOWAST×4KillNayeli Ti'aset Rachel Van Gorp+2.1
3621-15IOWASTIOWAST×4KillDaaliyah Kempset Reagan Hanfelt+1.9
3722-15IOWASTIOWAST×4Attack errKristen Dear+0.9
3823-15IOWASTIOWAST×4BlockedKristen Dearblk Macie Lupkes, Daaliyah Kemp+0.4
3923-16IOWASTARIZServe errIowa St.+0.1
4024-16ARIZIOWASTKillNayeli Ti'aset Ella Florez+0.1
4125-16IOWASTIOWASTAceIowa St.·
Set 4
11-0IOWASTIOWASTAttack errDestiny Ndam-Simpson+3.6
21-1IOWASTARIZKillDestiny Ndam-Simpsonset Maria Olga Siapani+2.5
32-1ARIZIOWAST×4KillNayeli Gonzalezset Ava Martin+2.6
43-1IOWASTIOWAST×4AceIowa St.+3.7
54-1IOWASTIOWAST×4BlockedCarlie Cisnerosblk Macie Lupkes, Mesaiya Bettis+3.7
65-1IOWASTIOWAST×4AceIowa St.+3.4
75-2IOWASTARIZKillCarlie Cisnerosset Maria Olga Siapani+2.1
86-2ARIZIOWAST×8BlockedPayton Woodsblk Mesaiya Bettis+2.4
97-2IOWASTIOWAST×8Attack errCarlie Cisneros+3.2
108-2IOWASTIOWAST×8KillNayeli Gonzalezset Ava Martin+2.7
119-2IOWASTIOWAST×8BlockedKristen Dearblk Pam McCune+2.3
1210-2IOWASTIOWAST×8AceIowa St.+1.8
1311-2IOWASTIOWAST×8AceIowa St.+1.3
1412-2IOWASTIOWAST×8KillPam McCuneset Ava Martin+0.9
1513-2IOWASTIOWAST×8Attack errCarlie Cisneros+0.6
1613-3IOWASTARIZKillPayton Woodsset Maria Olga Siapani+0.2
1713-4ARIZARIZAttack errNayeli Gonzalez+0.5
1814-4ARIZIOWAST×3KillMesaiya Bettisset Rachel Van Gorp+0.5
1915-4IOWASTIOWAST×3Attack errCarlie Cisneros+0.5
2016-4IOWASTIOWAST×3KillMesaiya Bettisset Ella Florez+0.3
2116-5IOWASTARIZKillCarlie Cisnerosset Harmony Sample+0.1
2217-5ARIZIOWASTKillMesaiya Bettisset Ella Florez+0.2
2318-5IOWASTIOWASTAttack errHayden Reeder+0.1
2418-6IOWASTARIZServe errIowa St.·
2518-7ARIZARIZAttack errNayeli Ti'a+0.1
2619-7ARIZIOWASTKillPam McCuneset Ella Florez+0.1
2719-8IOWASTARIZServe errIowa St.·
2820-8ARIZIOWASTServe errArizona+0.1
2921-8IOWASTIOWASTAttack errPayton Woods·
3021-9IOWASTARIZKillHayden Reederset Maria Olga Siapani·
3122-9ARIZIOWASTKillNayeli Gonzalezset Ava Martin·
3222-10IOWASTARIZKillJourney Tuckerset Maria Olga Siapani·
3323-10ARIZIOWAST×3KillMesaiya Bettisset Rachel Van Gorp·
3424-10IOWASTIOWAST×3Attack errPayton Woods·
3525-10IOWASTIOWAST×3BlockedCarlie Cisnerosblk Mesaiya Bettis·

Score shown after each rally, Iowa St. first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).