Final · 5 setsSun, Oct 25, 2026Watch on ESPN+

Cincinnati def. Arizona 3–2

RallyIQ pre-match: Cincinnati 71.1% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Oct 25, 10:56 AM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Cincinnati beat visiting Arizona 3-2 (25-16, 19-25, 21-25, 27-25, 15-11) on Sun, Oct 25, 2026. Cincinnati's Sydney Nolan led with 30 kills, and Viktoria Ninova added 34 digs.

Data through · final Oct 25

Set12345Sets
ARIZ16252525112
CINCY25192127153

Match story · written from the play-by-play

34 digs from Viktoria Ninova kept Cincinnati alive against Arizona.

The match turned 3 times. Numbers are Cincinnati's win probability from the RallyIQ model, rally by rally. Cincinnati went in as RallyIQ's 71% pick.

  1. Turning point 1: Set 4 · Arizona 17–18 Cincinnati

    Down 17–18, Arizona scored 4 straight to lead 21–18.

    Cincinnati 40% → 11%

  2. Turning point 2: Set 4 · Arizona 24–22 Cincinnati

    From here Cincinnati won 5 of 6 rallies to take the set 27–25. That flipped the match to Cincinnati.

    Cincinnati 8% → 61%

  3. Turning point 3: Set 5 · Arizona 0–0 Cincinnati

    Cincinnati opened the set with 3 straight points for a 3–0 lead.

    Cincinnati 61% → 81%

Cincinnati above 50Arizona belowMax swing 16.9%

ArizonaCincinnati

Sideout %
Arizona 57.5·Cincinnati 60.2
Break %
Arizona 39.8·Cincinnati 42.5
Hitting
Arizona .179·Cincinnati .200
Longest run
Arizona 6·Cincinnati 4

Andrea Simovski
4 kills inside the turning points, 24 K and .288 for the match (28 points).

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Cincinnati above 50 · Arizona below
S1S2S3S4S510050100+16.9% CINCYrally 209 · set 5

Biggest swing: 16.9% to Cincinnati — set 4, ARIZ 24-24 CINCY. Kill by Andrea Simovski (set by Kate Lijic). CINCY win probability 14% → 30%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

ARIZ 24.2%75.8% CINCY

Arizona wins

3-0
4.2%
3-1
8.2%
3-2
11.7%

Cincinnati wins

3-0
27.7%
3-1
28.9%
3-2
19.2%
ARIZ break %
39.8% vs this opp
CINCY break %
45.2% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Andrea SimovskiKill+16.9%

    Kill by Andrea Simovski (set by Kate Lijic)

    Set 4 · ARIZ 24-24 CINCY · CINCY 14% → 30%

  2. 02
    Andrea SimovskiKill+15.3%

    Kill by Andrea Simovski (set by Kate Lijic)

    Set 4 · ARIZ 24-25 CINCY · CINCY 30% → 46%

  3. 03
    Destiny Ndam-SimpsonAttack error+15.0%

    Attack error by Destiny Ndam-Simpson

    Set 4 · ARIZ 25-27 CINCY · CINCY 46% → 61%

  4. 04

    Kill by Destiny Ndam-Simpson (set by Maria Olga Siapani)

    Set 4 · ARIZ 24-22 CINCY · ARIZ 79% → 92%

  5. 05

    Kill by Destiny Ndam-Simpson (set by Harmony Sample)

    Set 4 · ARIZ 25-25 CINCY · ARIZ 54% → 65%

  6. 06
    Andrea SimovskiKill+11.1%

    Kill by Andrea Simovski (set by Kate Lijic)

    Set 4 · ARIZ 25-26 CINCY · CINCY 35% → 46%

  7. 07
    Andrea SimovskiBlock+10.5%

    Carlie Cisneros stuffed by Andrea Simovski

    Set 4 · ARIZ 22-22 CINCY · CINCY 21% → 31%

  8. 08

    Kill by Destiny Ndam-Simpson (set by Harmony Sample)

    Set 4 · ARIZ 23-22 CINCY · ARIZ 69% → 79%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
519680.16322119112223
513742.143021163031.516.5
58122.3180000008412
53212.08344001800425
2106.167000200212
2114.000000100001
5000–1111200001
5000–2011700000
45116.250000000427
4329.11100011073.56.5
3000–102200000
2000–000000000
1104.250000000001
11011.000000000001
Team totals5520196.179505688713016102
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
530985.2470018000030
524759.28823222410128
511225.36000010111.512.5
5218.12500210010.52.5
5114.00043121000002
5000–4101500001
5000–7213410002
5000–200600000
43818-.278001400003
2214.25000020111.53.5
2126-.167140160010.51.5
2011-1.000000100000
Team totals7432210.200727101105345107

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 6 ARIZ · CINCY 4

Set 1

16-25

Longest run 3 ARIZCINCY 4

Set 2

25-19

Longest run 6 ARIZCINCY 3

Set 3

25-21

Longest run 5 ARIZCINCY 4

Set 4

25-27

Longest run 5 ARIZCINCY 4

Set 5

11-15

Longest run 2 ARIZCINCY 3

Bars above the line = Cincinnati leads, below = Arizona leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Arizona

SlotSideout %Break %
1
50%13/26
29%5/17
2
52%11/21
45%10/22
3
77%10/13
23%3/13
4
64%9/14
50%10/20
5
64%9/14
44%7/16
6
50%9/18
40%6/15
All
58%61/106
40%41/103

Cincinnati

SlotSideout %Break %
1
57%13/23
52%11/21
2
65%11/17
46%11/24
3
50%10/20
38%6/16
4
59%10/17
29%4/14
5
56%9/16
31%4/13
6
90%9/10
50%9/18
All
60%62/103
42%45/106

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (5 of 5 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

209 rallies

#ARIZ-CINCYSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
10-1ARIZCINCYKillLigia Williamsset Kate Lijic+1.5
20-2CINCYCINCYAceViktoria Ninovaaced Carlie Cisneros+2.0
31-2CINCYARIZKillMarina Voslooset Harmony Sample+1.4
41-3ARIZCINCYServe errArizona+1.5
51-4CINCYCINCYAttack errMarina Vosloo+1.8
62-4CINCYARIZKillCarlie Cisnerosset Harmony Sample+1.3
72-5ARIZCINCYKillNina Scruccaset Kate Lijic+1.4
82-6CINCYCINCYKillAndrea Simovskiset Kate Lijic+1.7
93-6CINCYARIZKillDestiny Ndam-Simpsonset Harmony Sample+1.1
104-6ARIZARIZAttack errNina Scrucca+1.8
114-7ARIZCINCYServe errArizona+1.4
125-7CINCYARIZ×3BlockedAndrea Simovskiblk Journey Tucker, Harmony Sample+1.4
136-7ARIZARIZ×3Attack errNina Scrucca+2.2
147-7ARIZARIZ×3KillHarmony Sampleset Destiny Ndam-Simpson+2.5
157-8ARIZCINCYServe errArizona+1.8
167-9CINCYCINCYAttack errDestiny Ndam-Simpson+2.4
178-9CINCYARIZBlockedKate Lijicblk Carlie Cisneros, Journey Tucker+1.7
188-10ARIZCINCYKillAndrea Simovskiset Kate Lijic+1.8
199-10CINCYARIZKillCarlie Cisnerosset Harmony Sample+1.8
209-11ARIZCINCYKillSydney Nolanset Kate Lijic+1.8
219-12CINCYCINCYKillSydney Nolanset Kate Lijic+2.3
2210-12CINCYARIZKillKennedy Osunsanmiset Harmony Sample+1.5
2310-13ARIZCINCY×4KillSydney Nolanset Kate Lijic+1.7
2410-14CINCYCINCY×4Attack errCarlie Cisneros+2.0
2510-15CINCYCINCY×4AceKate Lijicaced Carlie Cisneros+1.6
2610-16CINCYCINCY×4KillSydney Nolanset Viktoria Ninova+1.1
2711-16CINCYARIZServe errKate Lijic+0.6
2811-17ARIZCINCYKillLilian Entenmannset Kate Lijic+0.8
2912-17CINCYARIZBlockedAndrea Simovskiblk Kennedy Osunsanmi, Journey Tucker+0.6
3012-18ARIZCINCYAttack errHarmony Sample+0.8
3112-19CINCYCINCYKillNina Scruccaset Andrea Simovski+0.7
3213-19CINCYARIZServe errLilian Entenmann+0.3
3313-20ARIZCINCYKillAndrea Simovskiset Kate Lijic+0.4
3414-20CINCYARIZServe errNina Scrucca+0.2
3514-21ARIZCINCY×3KillAndrea Simovskiset Viktoria Ninova+0.4
3614-22CINCYCINCY×3KillLigia Williamsset Kate Lijic+0.2
3714-23CINCYCINCY×3KillSydney Nolanset Ava Ledebuhr+0.1
3815-23CINCYARIZKillHayden Reederset Harmony Sample·
3915-24ARIZCINCYKillSydney Nolanset Kate Lijic·
4016-24CINCYARIZKillMaya Flemisterset Harmony Sample·
4116-25ARIZCINCYKillSydney Nolanset Kate Lijic·
Set 2
10-1CINCYCINCYAceAndrea Simovski+1.7
21-1CINCYARIZServe errAndrea Simovski+1.3
31-2ARIZCINCYAttack errCarlie Cisneros+1.3
42-2CINCYARIZBlockedSydney Nolanblk Journey Tucker, Kennedy Osunsanmi+1.3
52-3ARIZCINCYKillSydney Nolanset Kate Lijic+1.3
63-3CINCYARIZServe errKate Lijic+1.3
73-4ARIZCINCYKillAndrea Simovski+1.3
83-5CINCYCINCYKillAndrea Simovskiset Viktoria Ninova+1.7
94-5CINCYARIZ×3KillCarlie Cisnerosset Harmony Sample+1.3
105-5ARIZARIZ×3KillKristen Dearset Kate Lijic+1.9
116-5ARIZARIZ×3AceArizonaaced Andrea Simovski+2.1
126-6ARIZCINCYKillNina Scruccaset Kate Lijic+1.5
137-6CINCYARIZServe errLilian Entenmann+1.6
147-7ARIZCINCYKillAndrea Simovskiset Kate Lijic+1.5
157-8CINCYCINCYKillAndrea Simovskiset Kate Lijic+2.0
168-8CINCYARIZKillDestiny Ndam-Simpsonset Harmony Sample+1.5
178-9ARIZCINCYKillAndrea Simovskiset Kayla Hostetler+1.5
189-9CINCYARIZ×3KillJourney Tuckerset Harmony Sample+1.6
1910-9ARIZARIZ×3KillDestiny Ndam-Simpsonset Harmony Sample+2.3
2011-9ARIZARIZ×3KillCarlie Cisnerosset Harmony Sample+2.4
2111-10ARIZCINCY×3KillSydney Nolanset Kate Lijic+1.6
2211-11CINCYCINCY×3KillSydney Nolanset Kate Lijic+2.3
2311-12CINCYCINCY×3KillSydney Nolanset Kate Lijic+2.3
2412-12CINCYARIZKillRenee Jonesset Harmony Sample+1.8
2512-13ARIZCINCYKillSydney Nolanset Kate Lijic+1.8
2613-13CINCYARIZ×6BlockedSydney Nolanblk Kristen Dear, Renee Jones+1.8
2714-13ARIZARIZ×6KillDestiny Ndam-Simpsonset Harmony Sample+2.7
2815-13ARIZARIZ×6KillDestiny Ndam-Simpson+2.9
2916-13ARIZARIZ×6BlockedNina Scruccablk Carlie Cisneros, Kristen Dear+2.8
3017-13ARIZARIZ×6BlockedNina Scruccablk Kristen Dear, Carlie Cisneros+2.5
3118-13ARIZARIZ×6Attack errSydney Nolan+2.1
3218-14ARIZCINCYKillSydney Nolanset Kate Lijic+1.0
3319-14CINCYARIZ×3KillCarlie Cisnerosset Harmony Sample+1.5
3420-14ARIZARIZ×3AceArizonaaced Andrea Simovski+1.5
3521-14ARIZARIZ×3KillHarmony Sampleset Kate Lijic+0.9
3621-15ARIZCINCYKillAndrea Simovskiset Kate Lijic+0.3
3722-15CINCYARIZBlockedNina Scruccablk Destiny Ndam-Simpson, Kristen Dear+0.5
3822-16ARIZCINCYKillAndrea Simovskiset Kate Lijic+0.2
3923-16CINCYARIZKillDestiny Ndam-Simpsonset Harmony Sample+0.4
4023-17ARIZCINCYAttack errDestiny Ndam-Simpson+0.1
4123-18CINCYCINCYKillSydney Nolanset Kate Lijic+0.3
4224-18CINCYARIZServe errAndrea Simovski+0.5
4324-19ARIZCINCYKillSydney Nolanset Viktoria Ninova+0.1
4425-19CINCYARIZKillJourney Tuckerset Harmony Sample+0.2
Set 3
10-1ARIZCINCYKillLigia Williamsset Kate Lijic+2.1
20-2CINCYCINCYKillSydney Nolanset Kate Lijic+2.8
31-2CINCYARIZ×4KillDestiny Ndam-Simpsonset Gigi Whann+2.0
42-2ARIZARIZ×4KillCarlie Cisnerosset Harmony Sample+3.1
53-2ARIZARIZ×4BlockedSydney Nolanblk Journey Tucker, Renee Jones+3.3
64-2ARIZARIZ×4AceArizonaaced Andrea Simovski+3.5
74-3ARIZCINCYKillSydney Nolanset Viktoria Ninova+2.4
85-3CINCYARIZKillCarlie Cisnerosset Destiny Ndam-Simpson+2.6
95-4ARIZCINCYKillSydney Nolanset Kate Lijic+2.4
106-4CINCYARIZKillRenee Jonesset Harmony Sample+2.7
116-5ARIZCINCY×3Attack errKristen Dear+2.5
126-6CINCYCINCY×3Attack errCarlie Cisneros+3.5
136-7CINCYCINCY×3KillAndrea Simovskiset Kayla Hostetler+3.4
147-7CINCYARIZKillDestiny Ndam-Simpsonset Harmony Sample+2.6
157-8ARIZCINCYKillLigia Williamsset Kate Lijic+2.5
168-8CINCYARIZKillCarlie Cisnerosset Harmony Sample+2.7
179-8ARIZARIZBlockedAndrea Simovskiblk Harmony Sample, Journey Tucker+3.9
189-9ARIZCINCYServe errArizona+2.8
199-10CINCYCINCYKillSydney Nolanset Ava Ledebuhr+3.8
2010-10CINCYARIZ×5KillDestiny Ndam-Simpsonset Harmony Sample+2.8
2111-10ARIZARIZ×5KillDestiny Ndam-Simpsonset Harmony Sample+4.2
2212-10ARIZARIZ×5KillJourney Tuckerset Harmony Sample+4.4
2313-10ARIZARIZ×5KillJourney Tuckerset Harmony Sample+4.4
2414-10ARIZARIZ×5Attack errSydney Nolan+4.1
2514-11ARIZCINCYKillSydney Nolanset Andi Spies+2.4
2615-11CINCYARIZBlockedAndi Spiesblk Destiny Ndam-Simpson+3.1
2715-12ARIZCINCYKillLilian Entenmannset Andi Spies+2.4
2816-12CINCYARIZKillRenee Jonesset Harmony Sample+3.2
2917-12ARIZARIZKillRenee Jonesset Harmony Sample+3.6
3017-13ARIZCINCYServe errArizona+1.9
3118-13CINCYARIZAttack errLilian Entenmann+2.7
3218-14ARIZCINCYAttack errDestiny Ndam-Simpson+1.8
3319-14CINCYARIZAttack errKayla Edginton+2.7
3419-15ARIZCINCY×4KillAndrea Simovskiset Andi Spies+1.7
3519-16CINCYCINCY×4KillAndrea Simovskiset Ava Ledebuhr+3.3
3619-17CINCYCINCY×4AceAva Ledebuhraced Kristen Dear+4.3
3719-18CINCYCINCY×4Attack errCarlie Cisneros+5.4
3820-18CINCYARIZAttack errAndrea Simovski+4.9
3920-19ARIZCINCYAttack errHarmony Sample+4.1
4020-20CINCYCINCYKillLigia Williamsset Andi Spies+6.7
4121-20CINCYARIZKillJourney Tuckerset Harmony Sample+5.8
4222-20ARIZARIZAttack errSydney Nolan+8.0
4322-21ARIZCINCYAttack errDestiny Ndam-Simpson+4.5
4423-21CINCYARIZ×3KillDestiny Ndam-Simpsonset Harmony Sample+6.8
4524-21ARIZARIZ×3AceArizonaaced Viktoria Ninova+6.9
4625-21ARIZARIZ×3KillRenee Jonesset Harmony Sample+2.9
Set 4
10-1CINCYCINCY×3KillLigia Williamsset Andi Spies+3.7
20-2CINCYCINCY×3AceAndrea Simovskiaced Carlie Cisneros+3.5
30-3CINCYCINCY×3AceAndrea Simovskiaced Destiny Ndam-Simpson+3.2
41-3CINCYARIZKillJourney Tuckerset Harmony Sample+2.3
51-4ARIZCINCY×4KillLigia Williamsset Andi Spies+2.4
61-5CINCYCINCY×4Attack errRenee Jones+2.9
71-6CINCYCINCY×4KillSydney Nolanset Andi Spies+2.5
81-7CINCYCINCY×4AceViktoria Ninova+2.0
92-7CINCYARIZBlockedSydney Nolanblk Renee Jones, Journey Tucker+1.3
102-8ARIZCINCYKillAndi Spiesset Ava Ledebuhr+1.5
113-8CINCYARIZKillKristen Dearset Harmony Sample+1.3
123-9ARIZCINCYKillSydney Nolanset Andi Spies+1.5
134-9CINCYARIZAttack errAndrea Simovski+1.3
145-9ARIZARIZAttack errNina Scrucca+2.2
155-10ARIZCINCYKillJulia Horanset Andi Spies+1.9
166-10CINCYARIZ×5BlockedNina Scruccablk Destiny Ndam-Simpson, Kristen Dear+1.7
177-10ARIZARIZ×5BlockedAndrea Simovskiblk Harmony Sample, Journey Tucker+2.8
188-10ARIZARIZ×5Attack errNina Scrucca+3.5
199-10ARIZARIZ×5KillDestiny Ndam-Simpson+4.2
2010-10ARIZARIZ×5KillDestiny Ndam-Simpsonset Brenna Ginder+4.8
2110-11ARIZCINCY×3KillLigia Williamsset Andi Spies+3.5
2210-12CINCYCINCY×3BlockedDestiny Ndam-Simpsonblk Ligia Williams, Andi Spies+4.6
2310-13CINCYCINCY×3KillLigia Williamsset Andi Spies+4.1
2411-13CINCYARIZKillDestiny Ndam-Simpsonset Harmony Sample+2.8
2511-14ARIZCINCYKillAndrea Simovskiset Andi Spies+3.1
2611-15CINCYCINCYBlockedCarlie Cisnerosblk Ligia Williams+3.5
2712-15CINCYARIZ×4Attack errAndi Spies+2.2
2813-15ARIZARIZ×4Attack errLigia Williams+3.9
2914-15ARIZARIZ×4Attack errLigia Williams+4.9
3015-15ARIZARIZ×4KillCarlie Cisnerosset Harmony Sample+5.8
3115-16ARIZCINCYKillLigia Williamsset Andi Spies+4.4
3216-16CINCYARIZKillCarlie Cisnerosset Harmony Sample+4.6
3317-16ARIZARIZKillKristen Dearset Harmony Sample+6.9
3417-17ARIZCINCYKillSydney Nolanset Andi Spies+4.9
3517-18CINCYCINCYKillSydney Nolanset Viktoria Ninova+6.9
3618-18CINCYARIZ×4Serve errAndi Spies+5.1
3719-18ARIZARIZ×4KillDestiny Ndam-Simpsonset Harmony Sample+8.0
3820-18ARIZARIZ×4AceArizonaaced Andrea Simovski+8.3
3921-18ARIZARIZ×4BlockedSydney Nolanblk Kristen Dear, Harmony Sample+7.6
4021-19ARIZCINCYKillJulia Horanset Kate Lijic+3.9
4121-20CINCYCINCYBlockedKristen Dearblk Julia Horan+7.4
4222-20CINCYARIZServe errSydney Nolan+7.4
4322-21ARIZCINCYKillAndrea Simovskiset Kate Lijic+5.6
4422-22CINCYCINCYBlockedCarlie Cisnerosblk Andrea Simovski+10.5
4523-22CINCYARIZKillDestiny Ndam-Simpsonset Harmony Sample+9.7
4624-22ARIZARIZKillDestiny Ndam-Simpsonset Maria Olga Siapani+13.4
4724-23ARIZCINCY×3KillAndrea Simovskiset Kate Lijic+5.4
4824-24CINCYCINCY×3KillAndrea Simovskiset Kate Lijic+16.9
4924-25CINCYCINCY×3KillAndrea Simovskiset Kate Lijic+15.3
5025-25CINCYARIZKillDestiny Ndam-Simpsonset Harmony Sample+11.1
5125-26ARIZCINCYKillAndrea Simovskiset Kate Lijic+11.1
5225-27CINCYCINCYAttack errDestiny Ndam-Simpson+15.0
Set 5
10-1ARIZCINCY×3KillLigia Williamsset Kate Lijic+5.9
20-2CINCYCINCY×3KillSydney Nolanset Kate Lijic+7.7
30-3CINCYCINCY×3Attack errJourney Tucker+6.9
41-3CINCYARIZServe errViktoria Ninova+4.7
51-4ARIZCINCYKillSydney Nolanset Kate Lijic+5.1
62-4CINCYARIZKillJourney Tuckerset Harmony Sample+4.8
72-5ARIZCINCYKillSydney Nolanset Kate Lijic+5.3
83-5CINCYARIZAttack errJulia Horan+4.9
94-5ARIZARIZAttack errAndrea Simovski+8.2
104-6ARIZCINCYKillAndrea Simovskiset Kate Lijic+6.6
115-6CINCYARIZKillHarmony Sampleset Gigi Whann+6.3
125-7ARIZCINCYKillAndrea Simovskiset Kate Lijic+6.9
136-7CINCYARIZKillCarlie Cisnerosset Harmony Sample+6.6
146-8ARIZCINCYServe errArizona+7.3
157-8CINCYARIZKillDestiny Ndam-Simpsonset Harmony Sample+6.9
167-9ARIZCINCYKillSydney Nolanset Kate Lijic+7.8
177-10CINCYCINCYKillSydney Nolanset Kate Lijic+9.0
188-10CINCYARIZKillJourney Tuckerset Harmony Sample+5.2
198-11ARIZCINCYKillKate Lijicset Andrea Simovski+6.8
208-12CINCYCINCYKillSydney Nolanset Kate Lijic+6.4
219-12CINCYARIZKillCarlie Cisnerosset Harmony Sample+2.8
2210-12ARIZARIZBlockedSydney Nolanblk Kristen Dear, Renee Jones+6.6
2310-13ARIZCINCYBlockedCarlie Cisnerosblk Lilian Entenmann, Julia Horan+7.4
2410-14CINCYCINCYKillAndrea Simovskiset Viktoria Ninova+5.4
2511-14CINCYARIZKillCarlie Cisnerosset Harmony Sample+1.2
2611-15ARIZCINCYKillAndrea Simovskiset Kate Lijic+2.7

Score shown after each rally, Arizona first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).