FinalTue, Sep 8, 2026

AwayBIG-SOUTH

3:0

HomeMEAC

UNC Asheville def. N.C. Central 3–0

(25-16, 25-13, 25-20)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
UNC A	25	25	25	3
NC CEN	16	13	20	0

RallyIQ model

Win probability

NC CEN above 50 · UNC A below

Biggest swing: 1.4% to N.C. Central — set 1, UNC A 4-4 NC CEN. Kill by Aniah Bass (set by Breylan Fairley). NC CEN win probability 11% → 13%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

UNC A 87.2%12.8% NC CEN

UNC Asheville wins

3-0

40.1%

3-1

31.6%

3-2

15.6%

N.C. Central wins

3-0

1.8%

3-1

4.0%

3-2

7.0%

UNC A break %: 47.4% vs this opp
NC CEN break %: 38.7% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Aniah BassKill+1.4%
Kill by Aniah Bass (set by Breylan Fairley)
Set 1 · UNC A 4-4 NC CEN · NC CEN 11% → 13%
02
Shalyn BellAttack error+1.2%
Attack error by Shalyn Bell
Set 1 · UNC A 6-4 NC CEN · UNC A 88% → 89%
03
Lusiana DamuniBad set+1.2%
Bad set by Lusiana Damuni
Set 1 · UNC A 1-0 NC CEN · UNC A 87% → 88%
04
Talia EmmenKill+1.1%
Kill by Talia Emmen (set by Breylan Fairley)
Set 1 · UNC A 4-3 NC CEN · NC CEN 10% → 11%
05
UNC A serverAce+1.1%
UNC Asheville ace on Hailey Gibbons
Set 1 · UNC A 2-0 NC CEN · UNC A 88% → 89%
06
Addie BrookbankAttack error+1.1%
Attack error by Addie Brookbank
Set 3 · UNC A 17-19 NC CEN · NC CEN 4% → 5%
07
Breylan FairleyBad set+1.0%
Bad set by Breylan Fairley
Set 1 · UNC A 7-4 NC CEN · UNC A 89% → 90%
08
Addie BrookbankKill+1.0%
Kill by Addie Brookbank (set by Olivia Callipo)
Set 3 · UNC A 19-19 NC CEN · UNC A 96% → 97%

Official NCAA box

Box score

UNC Ashevilleaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
23Sarah WadsworthOH	3	11	1	24	.417	1	2	0	5	0	0	0	0	13
14Lydia PateMB	3	9	0	14	.643	0	1	3	4	0	2	0	2	12
5Addie BrookbankOH	3	9	3	25	.240	0	2	1	10	1	0	0	0	11
32Albertine van der GootOH	3	4	1	12	.250	0	0	0	4	0	1	1	1.5	5.5
13Cadence NicholsMB	3	3	0	8	.375	0	0	0	1	0	2	1	2.5	5.5
18Elise JensenS	3	0	0	0	–	15	4	2	2	0	0	0	0	4
7Lily BannisterOH	3	3	1	9	.222	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	3
22Olivia CallipoS	3	0	0	0	–	15	2	4	8	0	0	0	0	2
4Izzy PerkinsL/DS	3	0	0	1	.000	2	1	1	9	0	0	0	0	1
17Catherine HubiakL/DS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		39	6	93	.355	34	12	11	44	1	5	2	6	75

N.C. Centralhome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BLK	PTS
12Shalyn BellOH	3	6	5	16	.063	1	0	4	12	0	0	0	6
3Allyson RouseMB	3	3	0	7	.429	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	3
16Talia EmmenOH	2	2	3	12	-.083	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	2
2Morgan WingoMB	2	2	0	7	.286	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	2
14Mya SmithOH	2	1	0	5	.200	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
13Lusiana DamuniS	2	0	1	2	-.500	9	0	0	4	0	0	0	0
7Aniah BassOH	3	9	2	17	.412	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	9
11Jayla EgertonDS	3	1	0	2	.500	2	0	1	7	2	0	0	1
6Breylan FairleyS	3	0	0	1	.000	16	1	1	2	0	0	0	1
4Hailey GibbonsDS	3	0	0	2	.000	2	0	0	4	3	0	0	0
17Alex FullerDS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0
22Tabitha NewlinOH	2	4	0	9	.444	0	0	1	2	1	1	1	5
8Peyton JenkinsMB	2	1	1	5	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
10Kayla RileyOH	1	2	0	9	.222	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	2
Team totals		31	12	94	.202	30	1	9	44	12	1	1	49

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 6 UNC A · NC CEN 4

Set 1

25-16

Longest run 4 UNC ANC CEN 3

Set 2

25-13

Longest run 6 UNC ANC CEN 2

Set 3

25-20

Longest run 6 UNC ANC CEN 4

Bars above the line = N.C. Central leads, below = UNC Asheville leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

UNC Asheville

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	88%7/8	63%10/16
2	50%6/12	60%9/15
3	67%6/9	33%3/9
4	75%6/8	57%8/14
5	71%5/7	55%6/11
6	67%4/6	56%5/9
All	68%34/50	55%41/74

N.C. Central

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	37%7/19	38%3/8
2	46%6/13	13%1/8
3	60%6/10	50%6/12
4	43%6/14	25%2/8
5	31%4/13	25%2/8
6	80%4/5	33%2/6
All	45%33/74	32%16/50

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

124 rallies

Rally log

#	UNC A-NC CEN	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	UNC A	UNC A×3	Bad set	Lusiana Damuni		+1.2
2	2-0	UNC A	UNC A×3	Ace	UNC A server	aced Hailey Gibbons	+1.1
3	3-0	UNC A	UNC A×3	Ace	UNC A server	aced Talia Emmen	+0.9
4	3-1	UNC A	NC CEN	Kill	Morgan Wingo	set Lusiana Damuni	+0.7
5	4-1	NC CEN	UNC A	Kill	Sarah Wadsworth	set Elise Jensen	+0.7
6	4-2	UNC A	NC CEN×3	Kill	Talia Emmen	set Lusiana Damuni	+0.7
7	4-3	NC CEN	NC CEN×3	Kill	Talia Emmen	set Breylan Fairley	+1.1
8	4-4	NC CEN	NC CEN×3	Kill	Aniah Bass	set Breylan Fairley	+1.4
9	5-4	NC CEN	UNC A×3	Kill	Lydia Pate	set Elise Jensen	+1.0
10	6-4	UNC A	UNC A×3	Attack err	Shalyn Bell		+1.2
11	7-4	UNC A	UNC A×3	Bad set	Breylan Fairley		+1.0
12	7-5	UNC A	NC CEN	Kill	Shalyn Bell	set Breylan Fairley	+0.8
13	8-5	NC CEN	UNC A	Attack err	Talia Emmen	blk Cadence Nichols, Albertine van der Goot	+0.8
14	9-5	UNC A	UNC A	Kill	Addie Brookbank	set Olivia Callipo	+0.9
15	9-6	UNC A	NC CEN	Serve err	UNC A server		+0.6
16	10-6	NC CEN	UNC A	Attack err	Shalyn Bell		+0.7
17	11-6	UNC A	UNC A	Attack err	Aniah Bass		+0.7
18	11-7	UNC A	NC CEN	Kill	Aniah Bass	set Breylan Fairley	+0.5
19	12-7	NC CEN	UNC A	Attack err	Talia Emmen	blk Cadence Nichols	+0.5
20	12-8	UNC A	NC CEN	Kill	Morgan Wingo	set Lusiana Damuni	+0.5
21	13-8	NC CEN	UNC A×4	Kill	Sarah Wadsworth	set Olivia Callipo	+0.6
22	14-8	UNC A	UNC A×4	Kill	Lydia Pate		+0.6
23	15-8	UNC A	UNC A×4	Ace	UNC A server	aced Alex Fuller	+0.4
24	16-8	UNC A	UNC A×4	Kill	Sarah Wadsworth	set Elise Jensen	+0.2
25	16-9	UNC A	NC CEN	Kill	Shalyn Bell	set Hailey Gibbons	+0.1
26	17-9	NC CEN	UNC A	Kill	Sarah Wadsworth	set Elise Jensen	+0.2
27	17-10	UNC A	NC CEN	Kill	Allyson Rouse	set Lusiana Damuni	+0.1
28	18-10	NC CEN	UNC A	Attack err	Shalyn Bell		+0.2
29	18-11	UNC A	NC CEN	Serve err	UNC A server		+0.1
30	18-12	NC CEN	NC CEN	Kill	Allyson Rouse	set Breylan Fairley	+0.2
31	19-12	NC CEN	UNC A	Attack err	Talia Emmen		+0.2
32	20-12	UNC A	UNC A	Attack err	Shalyn Bell	blk Cadence Nichols	+0.2
33	20-13	UNC A	NC CEN	Serve err	UNC A server		+0.1
34	21-13	NC CEN	UNC A	Serve err	NC CEN server		+0.1
35	22-13	UNC A	UNC A	Ace	UNC A server	aced Tabitha Newlin	+0.1
36	22-14	UNC A	NC CEN	Kill	Aniah Bass	set Breylan Fairley	+0.0
37	23-14	NC CEN	UNC A	Kill	Cadence Nichols	set Olivia Callipo	+0.0
38	23-15	UNC A	NC CEN	Kill	Tabitha Newlin	set Lusiana Damuni	+0.0
39	24-15	NC CEN	UNC A	Kill	Sarah Wadsworth	set Olivia Callipo	+0.0
40	24-16	UNC A	NC CEN	Serve err	UNC A server		+0.0
41	25-16	NC CEN	UNC A	Kill	Sarah Wadsworth	set Elise Jensen	+0.0
Set 2
1	1-0	NC CEN	UNC A×4	Kill	Sarah Wadsworth	set Elise Jensen	+0.6
2	2-0	UNC A	UNC A×4	Kill	Lydia Pate		+0.8
3	3-0	UNC A	UNC A×4	Kill	Lydia Pate	set Elise Jensen	+0.7
4	4-0	UNC A	UNC A×4	Kill	Addie Brookbank	set Elise Jensen	+0.6
5	4-1	UNC A	NC CEN	Kill	Shalyn Bell	set Lusiana Damuni	+0.4
6	5-1	NC CEN	UNC A	Kill	Addie Brookbank	set Elise Jensen	+0.4
7	5-2	UNC A	NC CEN	Serve err	UNC A server		+0.4
8	5-3	NC CEN	NC CEN	Kill	Aniah Bass	set Breylan Fairley	+0.7
9	6-3	NC CEN	UNC A	Serve err	NC CEN server		+0.5
10	6-4	UNC A	NC CEN	Kill	Kayla Riley	set Shalyn Bell	+0.5
11	7-4	NC CEN	UNC A×3	Kill	Addie Brookbank	set Olivia Callipo	+0.5
12	8-4	UNC A	UNC A×3	Kill	Cadence Nichols	set Olivia Callipo	+0.6
13	9-4	UNC A	UNC A×3	Ace	UNC A server	aced Team	+0.5
14	9-5	UNC A	NC CEN	Attack err	Lily Bannister		+0.3
15	10-5	NC CEN	UNC A	Kill	Cadence Nichols	set Olivia Callipo	+0.4
16	10-6	UNC A	NC CEN	Kill	Kayla Riley	set Hailey Gibbons	+0.3
17	11-6	NC CEN	UNC A	Serve err	NC CEN server		+0.4
18	12-6	UNC A	UNC A	Attack err	Shalyn Bell	blk Lydia Pate	+0.4
19	12-7	UNC A	NC CEN	Kill	Peyton Jenkins	set Lusiana Damuni	+0.2
20	12-8	NC CEN	NC CEN	Kill	Shalyn Bell	set Lusiana Damuni	+0.5
21	13-8	NC CEN	UNC A	Kill	Lydia Pate	set Elise Jensen	+0.4
22	13-9	UNC A	NC CEN	Kill	Mya Smith	set Lusiana Damuni	+0.4
23	13-10	NC CEN	NC CEN	Attack err	Addie Brookbank		+0.6
24	14-10	NC CEN	UNC A	Kill	Albertine van der Goot	set Elise Jensen	+0.5
25	15-10	UNC A	UNC A	Ace	UNC A server	aced Team	+0.5
26	15-11	UNC A	NC CEN	Kill	Allyson Rouse	set Breylan Fairley	+0.3
27	16-11	NC CEN	UNC A×3	Serve err	NC CEN server		+0.4
28	17-11	UNC A	UNC A×3	Kill	Lily Bannister	set Izzy Perkins	+0.4
29	18-11	UNC A	UNC A×3	Ace	UNC A server	aced Kayla Riley	+0.2
30	18-12	UNC A	NC CEN	Kill	Aniah Bass	set Breylan Fairley	+0.1
31	19-12	NC CEN	UNC A	Kill	Addie Brookbank	set Olivia Callipo	+0.2
32	19-13	UNC A	NC CEN	Serve err	UNC A server		+0.1
33	20-13	NC CEN	UNC A×6	Attack err	Peyton Jenkins		+0.1
34	21-13	UNC A	UNC A×6	Attack err	Lusiana Damuni	blk Lydia Pate	+0.1
35	22-13	UNC A	UNC A×6	Kill	Lydia Pate	set Olivia Callipo	+0.0
36	23-13	UNC A	UNC A×6	Ace	UNC A server	aced Hailey Gibbons	+0.0
37	24-13	UNC A	UNC A×6	Kill	Lily Bannister	set Sarah Wadsworth	+0.0
38	25-13	UNC A	UNC A×6	Kill	Lydia Pate	set Olivia Callipo	+0.0
Set 3
1	1-0	UNC A	UNC A	Ace	UNC A server	aced Jayla Egerton	+0.4
2	2-0	UNC A	UNC A	Bad set	Breylan Fairley		+0.4
3	2-1	UNC A	NC CEN	Kill	Aniah Bass	set Breylan Fairley	+0.3
4	3-1	NC CEN	UNC A	Serve err	NC CEN server		+0.3
5	4-1	UNC A	UNC A	Kill	Albertine van der Goot	set Elise Jensen	+0.3
6	4-2	UNC A	NC CEN×4	Kill	Aniah Bass	set Breylan Fairley	+0.2
7	4-3	NC CEN	NC CEN×4	Kill	Shalyn Bell	set Breylan Fairley	+0.4
8	4-4	NC CEN	NC CEN×4	Attack err	Albertine van der Goot		+0.5
9	4-5	NC CEN	NC CEN×4	Kill	Shalyn Bell	set Breylan Fairley	+0.5
10	5-5	NC CEN	UNC A	Kill	Lydia Pate	set Elise Jensen	+0.4
11	5-6	UNC A	NC CEN	Serve err	UNC A server		+0.4
12	6-6	NC CEN	UNC A	Kill	Albertine van der Goot	set Elise Jensen	+0.4
13	6-7	UNC A	NC CEN×3	Serve err	UNC A server		+0.4
14	6-8	NC CEN	NC CEN×3	Attack err	Addie Brookbank		+0.6
15	6-9	NC CEN	NC CEN×3	Kill	Tabitha Newlin	set Breylan Fairley	+0.7
16	7-9	NC CEN	UNC A	Serve err	NC CEN server		+0.4
17	7-10	UNC A	NC CEN×3	Kill	Tabitha Newlin	set Jayla Egerton	+0.5
18	7-11	NC CEN	NC CEN×3	Kill	Jayla Egerton	set Lily Bannister	+0.7
19	7-12	NC CEN	NC CEN×3	Attack err	Sarah Wadsworth	blk Tabitha Newlin	+0.7
20	8-12	NC CEN	UNC A	Kill	Sarah Wadsworth	set Olivia Callipo	+0.4
21	8-13	UNC A	NC CEN×3	Serve err	UNC A server		+0.5
22	8-14	NC CEN	NC CEN×3	Kill	Tabitha Newlin	set Jayla Egerton	+0.6
23	8-15	NC CEN	NC CEN×3	Ace	NC CEN server	aced Addie Brookbank	+0.5
24	9-15	NC CEN	UNC A	Serve err	NC CEN server		+0.3
25	10-15	UNC A	UNC A	Attack err	Aniah Bass	blk Albertine van der Goot	+0.4
26	10-16	UNC A	NC CEN	Serve err	UNC A server		+0.5
27	11-16	NC CEN	UNC A×6	Kill	Sarah Wadsworth	set Lily Bannister	+0.3
28	12-16	UNC A	UNC A×6	Ace	UNC A server	aced Team	+0.5
29	13-16	UNC A	UNC A×6	Ace	UNC A server	aced Jayla Egerton	+0.6
30	14-16	UNC A	UNC A×6	Kill	Addie Brookbank	set Elise Jensen	+0.7
31	15-16	UNC A	UNC A×6	Kill	Albertine van der Goot	set Breylan Fairley	+0.8
32	16-16	UNC A	UNC A×6	Kill	Lydia Pate		+0.8
33	16-17	UNC A	NC CEN	Kill	Aniah Bass	set Breylan Fairley	+0.7
34	17-17	NC CEN	UNC A	Serve err	NC CEN server		+0.6
35	17-18	UNC A	NC CEN	Kill	Aniah Bass	set Breylan Fairley	+0.7
36	17-19	NC CEN	NC CEN	Attack err	Addie Brookbank		+1.1
37	18-19	NC CEN	UNC A×5	Kill	Addie Brookbank	set Elise Jensen	+0.7
38	19-19	UNC A	UNC A×5	Kill	Addie Brookbank	set Olivia Callipo	+1.0
39	20-19	UNC A	UNC A×5	Kill	Lily Bannister	set Izzy Perkins	+1.0
40	21-19	UNC A	UNC A×5	Ace	UNC A server	aced Hailey Gibbons	+0.9
41	22-19	UNC A	UNC A×5	Kill	Addie Brookbank	set Olivia Callipo	+0.6
42	22-20	UNC A	NC CEN	Serve err	UNC A server		+0.3
43	23-20	NC CEN	UNC A×3	Serve err	NC CEN server		+0.5
44	24-20	UNC A	UNC A×3	Kill	Sarah Wadsworth	set Olivia Callipo	+0.3
45	25-20	UNC A	UNC A×3	Kill	Sarah Wadsworth	set Olivia Callipo	+0.1

Score shown after each rally, UNC Asheville first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.