Final · 5 setsFri, Oct 23, 2026Watch on MEAC Network

Delaware St. def. N.C. Central 3–2

RallyIQ pre-match: Delaware St. 63.0% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Oct 23, 4:55 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Delaware St. won at N.C. Central 3-2 (25-18, 16-25, 25-19, 17-25, 15-13) on Fri, Oct 23, 2026. Delaware St.'s Aaliyah Mitchell led with 17 kills.

Data through · final Oct 23

Set12345Sets
DEL ST25162517153
NC CEN18251925132

Match story · written from the play-by-play

Delaware St. was outhit .252 to .184, and won anyway.

The match turned 3 times. Numbers are Delaware St.'s win probability from the RallyIQ model, rally by rally. Delaware St. went in as RallyIQ's 63% pick.

  1. Turning point 1: Set 4 · Delaware St. 9–6 N.C. Central

    N.C. Central scored 7 straight to turn a 6–9 deficit into a 13–9 lead.

    Delaware St. 89% → 67%

  2. Turning point 2: Set 5 · Delaware St. 8–8 N.C. Central

    From 8–8, Delaware St. scored 3 straight to lead 11–8.

    Delaware St. 55% → 86%

  3. Turning point 3: Set 5 · Delaware St. 12–12 N.C. Central

    3 of the last 4 rallies went to Delaware St., enough to take the set 15–13 and win the match 3–2.

    Delaware St. 55% → >99%

N.C. Central above 50Delaware St. belowMax swing 24.1%

Delaware St.N.C. Central

Sideout %
Delaware St. 59.4·N.C. Central 60.8
Break %
Delaware St. 39.2·N.C. Central 40.6
Hitting
Delaware St. .184·N.C. Central .252
Longest run
Delaware St. 5·N.C. Central 7

Aaliyah Mitchell
2 kills inside the turning points, 17 K and .196 for the match (17.5 points).

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

N.C. Central above 50 · Delaware St. below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 4SET 510050100+24.1% DEL STrally 198 · set 5

Biggest swing: 24.1% to Delaware St. — set 5, DEL ST 15-13 NC CEN. Attack error by Talia Emmen. NC CEN win probability 24% → 0%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

DEL ST 62.5%37.5% NC CEN

Delaware St. wins

3-0
18.6%
3-1
23.9%
3-2
20.0%

N.C. Central wins

3-0
7.9%
3-1
13.6%
3-2
16.0%
DEL ST break %
46.0% vs this opp
NC CEN break %
43.6% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Talia EmmenAttack error+24.1%

    Attack error by Talia Emmen

    Set 5 · DEL ST 15-13 NC CEN · DEL ST 76% → 100%

  2. 02
    Morgan WingoAttack error+20.8%

    Attack error by Morgan Wingo

    Set 5 · DEL ST 14-13 NC CEN · DEL ST 55% → 76%

  3. 03
    Emma PatmonAttack error+16.5%

    Attack error by Emma Patmon

    Set 5 · DEL ST 12-12 NC CEN · NC CEN 29% → 45%

  4. 04

    Kill by Aaliyah Mitchell (set by Ailena Mykins)

    Set 5 · DEL ST 13-12 NC CEN · DEL ST 55% → 71%

  5. 05
    Morgan WingoKill+15.9%

    Kill by Morgan Wingo (set by Lusiana Damuni)

    Set 5 · DEL ST 13-13 NC CEN · NC CEN 29% → 45%

  6. 06

    Kill by Aaliyah Mitchell (set by Courtney Nix)

    Set 5 · DEL ST 10-8 NC CEN · DEL ST 65% → 77%

  7. 07
    Jalia DublinKill+11.3%

    Kill by Jalia Dublin (set by Paige Ahakuelo)

    Set 5 · DEL ST 12-10 NC CEN · DEL ST 69% → 81%

  8. 08
    Hannah SandersKill+11.2%

    Kill by Hannah Sanders (set by Paige Ahakuelo)

    Set 5 · DEL ST 8-7 NC CEN · DEL ST 53% → 65%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
517846.196202131010.517.5
510323.30400010212.512.5
510424.25000112110111
58420.200100000219
53210.100000100214
5114.0002411900002
511833.0910005000011
5001.00012101310001
5001.00018011100000
5001.000100000000
Team totals6030163.184582565436698
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
515841.171023120010.517.5
58428.143114130212.511.5
58321.2381002014311
58419.21100040132.510.5
5000–2502300000
36110.50000020031.57.5
51011.0007001010001
5001.0002002700000
44012.333000100215
4000–111200001
3509.55600020111.56.5
34111.27300000010.54.5
3102.500001400001
Team totals6021155.2525541362251613100

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Delaware St. vs N.C. Central

Season series · Delaware St. leads 2-0

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 5 DEL ST · NC CEN 7

Set 1

25-18

Longest run 4 DEL STNC CEN 3

Set 2

16-25

Longest run 2 DEL STNC CEN 4

Set 3

25-19

Longest run 5 DEL STNC CEN 3

Set 4

17-25

Longest run 5 DEL STNC CEN 7

Set 5

15-13

Longest run 3 DEL STNC CEN 2

Bars above the line = N.C. Central leads, below = Delaware St. leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Delaware St.

SlotSideout %Break %
1
71%12/17
44%7/16
2
56%10/18
45%10/22
3
71%10/14
47%9/19
4
53%10/19
17%2/12
5
63%10/16
44%8/18
6
47%8/17
20%2/10
All
59%60/101
39%38/97

N.C. Central

SlotSideout %Break %
1
60%12/20
21%3/14
2
48%10/21
50%10/20
3
63%10/16
38%6/16
4
63%10/16
29%4/14
5
64%9/14
50%10/20
6
80%8/10
47%8/17
All
61%59/97
41%41/101

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (5 of 5 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

198 rallies

#DEL ST-NC CENSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
10-1DEL STNC CENKillTalia Emmenset Breylan Fairley+1.9
20-2NC CENNC CENAttack errPaige Ahakuelo+2.4
31-2NC CENDEL ST×4KillHannah Sandersset Paige Ahakuelo+1.8
42-2DEL STDEL ST×4Attack errShalyn Bell+2.3
53-2DEL STDEL ST×4KillAaliyah Mitchellset Paige Ahakuelo+2.3
64-2DEL STDEL ST×4BlockedShalyn Bellblk Hannah Sanders+2.2
74-3DEL STNC CENKillHailey Gibbonsset Paige Ahakuelo+1.8
85-3NC CENDEL STKillAaliyah Mitchellset Paige Ahakuelo+1.8
96-3DEL STDEL STKillAaliyah Mitchellset Paige Ahakuelo+2.1
106-4DEL STNC CENKillAllyson Rouseset Breylan Fairley+1.7
117-4NC CENDEL STKillJalia Dublinset Paige Ahakuelo+1.8
128-4DEL STDEL STAttack errAllyson Rouse+2.0
138-5DEL STNC CENAttack errAaliyah Mitchell+1.5
148-6NC CENNC CENAttack errAaliyah Mitchell+2.1
159-6NC CENDEL STServe errN.C. Central+1.9
1610-6DEL STDEL STKillDuura Kpeaset Ailena Mykins+2.1
1710-7DEL STNC CENServe errDelaware St.+1.5
1811-7NC CENDEL STKillEmma Patmonset Ailena Mykins+1.7
1912-7DEL STDEL STKillEmma Patmonset Autumn Richardson+1.8
2012-8DEL STNC CENKillKayla Rileyset Lusiana Damuni+1.3
2112-9NC CENNC CENBlockedEmma Patmonblk Talia Emmen, Aniah Bass+1.9
2213-9NC CENDEL ST×3KillAmanda Santos Juliaoset Courtney Nix+1.8
2314-9DEL STDEL ST×3Attack errMorgan Wingo+1.8
2415-9DEL STDEL ST×3KillJalia Dublinset Paige Ahakuelo+1.4
2515-10DEL STNC CENBlockedHannah Sandersblk Morgan Wingo+0.9
2615-11NC CENNC CENAceN.C. Central+1.5
2716-11NC CENDEL STKillHannah Sandersset Paige Ahakuelo+1.5
2816-12DEL STNC CENKillAniah Bassset Breylan Fairley+1.2
2916-13NC CENNC CENBlockedAaliyah Mitchellblk Aniah Bass, Allyson Rouse+2.0
3017-13NC CENDEL ST×4KillAmanda Santos Juliaoset Paige Ahakuelo+2.0
3118-13DEL STDEL ST×4KillDuura Kpeaset Paige Ahakuelo+1.9
3219-13DEL STDEL ST×4Attack errShalyn Bell+1.3
3320-13DEL STDEL ST×4BlockedAniah Bassblk Aaliyah Mitchell, Duura Kpea+0.8
3420-14DEL STNC CENKillShalyn Bellset Breylan Fairley+0.4
3521-14NC CENDEL STAttack errTalia Emmen+0.6
3621-15DEL STNC CEN×3Attack errAaliyah Mitchell+0.3
3721-16NC CENNC CEN×3BlockedEmma Patmonblk Kayla Riley, Peyton Jenkins+0.7
3821-17NC CENNC CEN×3AceN.C. Centralaced Amanda Santos Juliao+1.1
3922-17NC CENDEL ST×3Serve errN.C. Central+1.4
4023-17DEL STDEL ST×3KillAmanda Santos Juliaoset Ailena Mykins+0.9
4124-17DEL STDEL ST×3KillAmanda Santos Juliaoset Courtney Nix+0.3
4224-18DEL STNC CENKillTalia Emmenset Lusiana Damuni+0.1
4325-18NC CENDEL STKillAmanda Santos Juliaoset Courtney Nix+0.1
Set 2
11-0NC CENDEL STServe errN.C. Central+1.6
22-0DEL STDEL STAttack errTalia Emmen+1.9
32-1DEL STNC CENAttack errAaliyah Mitchell+1.5
42-2NC CENNC CENKillAniah Bassset Breylan Fairley+2.0
53-2NC CENDEL STKillAaliyah Mitchellset Jalia Dublin+1.6
64-2DEL STDEL STAceDelaware St.+2.0
74-3DEL STNC CENKillShalyn Bellset Breylan Fairley+1.6
84-4NC CENNC CENBlockedJalia Dublinblk Shalyn Bell+2.1
95-4NC CENDEL STKillAmanda Santos Juliaoset Paige Ahakuelo+1.7
105-5DEL STNC CENKillShalyn Bellset Breylan Fairley+1.8
115-6NC CENNC CENKillMya Smithset Lusiana Damuni+2.3
126-6NC CENDEL STServe errN.C. Central+1.8
136-7DEL STNC CENKillMorgan Wingoset Lusiana Damuni+1.9
146-8NC CENNC CENKillMya Smith+2.4
157-8NC CENDEL STServe errN.C. Central+1.9
167-9DEL STNC CENKillTalia Emmenset Lusiana Damuni+2.0
178-9NC CENDEL STKillAmanda Santos Juliaoset Ailena Mykins+1.9
188-10DEL STNC CENKillMya Smithset Lusiana Damuni+2.1
199-10NC CENDEL STBlockedTalia Emmenblk Amanda Santos Juliao+2.0
209-11DEL STNC CENKillAniah Bassset Hailey Gibbons+2.2
2110-11NC CENDEL STKillHannah Sandersset Paige Ahakuelo+2.0
2210-12DEL STNC CENKillShalyn Bellset Hailey Gibbons+2.2
2310-13NC CENNC CENBlockedJalia Dublinblk Shalyn Bell+2.7
2411-13NC CENDEL STKillAaliyah Mitchellset Paige Ahakuelo+1.9
2511-14DEL STNC CENKillMorgan Wingoset Breylan Fairley+2.3
2612-14NC CENDEL STKillEmma Patmonset Ailena Mykins+2.0
2712-15DEL STNC CEN×4Attack errDuura Kpea+2.4
2812-16NC CENNC CEN×4KillMorgan Wingo+2.6
2912-17NC CENNC CEN×4KillTalia Emmenset Lusiana Damuni+2.2
3012-18NC CENNC CEN×4Attack errDuura Kpea+1.7
3113-18NC CENDEL STServe errN.C. Central+1.0
3213-19DEL STNC CENBlockedAmanda Santos Juliaoblk Mya Smith, Morgan Wingo+1.4
3313-20NC CENNC CENAttack errHannah Sanders+1.1
3414-20NC CENDEL STKillAmanda Santos Juliaoset Courtney Nix+0.5
3515-20DEL STDEL STKillHannah Sandersset Paige Ahakuelo+1.0
3615-21DEL STNC CENKillTalia Emmenset Hailey Gibbons+1.2
3716-21NC CENDEL STKillHannah Sandersset Paige Ahakuelo+0.7
3816-22DEL STNC CEN×4KillTalia Emmenset Breylan Fairley+1.1
3916-23NC CENNC CEN×4KillPeyton Jenkinsset Aniah Bass+0.7
4016-24NC CENNC CEN×4KillShalyn Bellset Hailey Gibbons+0.2
4116-25NC CENNC CEN×4KillAniah Bassset Breylan Fairley·
Set 3
11-0DEL STDEL ST×4AceDelaware St.aced Hailey Gibbons+3.0
22-0DEL STDEL ST×4Attack errTalia Emmen+2.9
33-0DEL STDEL ST×4BlockedAniah Bassblk Jalia Dublin, Hannah Sanders+2.7
44-0DEL STDEL ST×4KillJalia Dublin+2.5
54-1DEL STNC CEN×3Serve errDelaware St.+1.9
64-2NC CENNC CEN×3KillPeyton Jenkinsset Breylan Fairley+2.7
74-3NC CENNC CEN×3AceN.C. Centralaced Aaliyah Mitchell+3.0
85-3NC CENDEL STServe errN.C. Central+2.5
96-3DEL STDEL STBlockedPeyton Jenkinsblk Hannah Sanders+2.9
106-4DEL STNC CENServe errDelaware St.+2.3
117-4NC CENDEL ST×3KillHannah Sandersset Paige Ahakuelo+2.4
128-4DEL STDEL ST×3Attack errMorgan Wingo+2.7
139-4DEL STDEL ST×3KillAaliyah Mitchell+2.4
149-5DEL STNC CENKillAniah Bassset Breylan Fairley+1.7
1510-5NC CENDEL STKillAaliyah Mitchellset Courtney Nix+1.9
1611-5DEL STDEL STAttack errMorgan Wingo+2.0
1711-6DEL STNC CENKillShalyn Bellset Lusiana Damuni+1.4
1812-6NC CENDEL STKillEmma Patmonset Ailena Mykins+1.6
1913-6DEL STDEL STKillEmma Patmonset Ailena Mykins+1.6
2013-7DEL STNC CENKillMorgan Wingoset Lusiana Damuni+1.0
2114-7NC CENDEL STServe errN.C. Central+1.2
2214-8DEL STNC CENKillPeyton Jenkinsset Lusiana Damuni+0.9
2315-8NC CENDEL STServe errN.C. Central+1.2
2415-9DEL STNC CENKillPeyton Jenkinsset Breylan Fairley+0.9
2516-9NC CENDEL ST×5KillHannah Sandersset Paige Ahakuelo+1.2
2617-9DEL STDEL ST×5Attack errTalia Emmen+1.0
2718-9DEL STDEL ST×5KillAaliyah Mitchellset Courtney Nix+0.6
2819-9DEL STDEL ST×5KillJalia Dublinset Aaliyah Mitchell+0.3
2920-9DEL STDEL ST×5KillAaliyah Mitchellset Courtney Nix+0.2
3020-10DEL STNC CENKillAniah Bassset Breylan Fairley+0.1
3120-11NC CENNC CENAttack errJalia Dublin+0.1
3221-11NC CENDEL STKillAaliyah Mitchellset Courtney Nix+0.2
3321-12DEL STNC CENKillMorgan Wingoset Breylan Fairley+0.1
3422-12NC CENDEL STServe errN.C. Central+0.1
3522-13DEL STNC CEN×3KillTabitha Newlinset Lusiana Damuni·
3622-14NC CENNC CEN×3KillKayla Rileyset Lusiana Damuni+0.1
3722-15NC CENNC CEN×3KillMya Smithset Lusiana Damuni+0.2
3823-15NC CENDEL STKillAmanda Santos Juliaoset Ailena Mykins+0.3
3923-16DEL STNC CENKillMorgan Wingoset Lusiana Damuni+0.1
4023-17NC CENNC CENAttack errAmanda Santos Juliao+0.2
4124-17NC CENDEL STKillEmma Patmonset Ailena Mykins+0.4
4224-18DEL STNC CENKillMya Smithset Lusiana Damuni+0.1
4324-19NC CENNC CENKillKayla Riley+0.2
4425-19NC CENDEL STBad setBreylan Fairley+0.4
Set 4
11-0NC CENDEL STKillJalia Dublinset Courtney Nix+2.2
21-1DEL STNC CENKillAllyson Rouseset Breylan Fairley+2.2
32-1NC CENDEL STKillAaliyah Mitchellset Paige Ahakuelo+2.2
42-2DEL STNC CENKillAniah Bassset Breylan Fairley+2.3
53-2NC CENDEL STKillJalia Dublinset Paige Ahakuelo+2.3
63-3DEL STNC CENKillMorgan Wingoset Breylan Fairley+2.3
73-4NC CENNC CENBlockedEmma Patmonblk Mya Smith+3.0
84-4NC CENDEL ST×5KillAaliyah Mitchellset Ailena Mykins+2.4
95-4DEL STDEL ST×5KillEmma Patmonset Ailena Mykins+2.9
106-4DEL STDEL ST×5Attack errShalyn Bell+2.9
117-4DEL STDEL ST×5Attack errTalia Emmen+2.7
128-4DEL STDEL ST×5KillEmma Patmonset Courtney Nix+2.4
138-5DEL STNC CENBlockedAmanda Santos Juliaoblk Morgan Wingo, Shalyn Bell+1.8
148-6NC CENNC CENAttack errAmanda Santos Juliao+2.6
159-6NC CENDEL STBad setLusiana Damuni+2.3
169-7DEL STNC CEN×7KillTalia Emmenset Lusiana Damuni+2.2
179-8NC CENNC CEN×7KillTalia Emmenset Lusiana Damuni+3.0
189-9NC CENNC CEN×7KillTalia Emmenset Shalyn Bell+3.3
199-10NC CENNC CEN×7Attack errHannah Sanders+3.6
209-11NC CENNC CEN×7KillTalia Emmenset Jayla Egerton+3.7
219-12NC CENNC CEN×7KillKayla Riley+3.6
229-13NC CENNC CEN×7AceN.C. Centralaced Courtney Nix+3.4
2310-13NC CENDEL STKillEmma Patmonset Ailena Mykins+2.3
2410-14DEL STNC CENKillTalia Emmenset Lusiana Damuni+2.8
2511-14NC CENDEL STKillHannah Sandersset Paige Ahakuelo+2.4
2611-15DEL STNC CENKillAllyson Rouseset Breylan Fairley+2.9
2712-15NC CENDEL STServe errN.C. Central+2.4
2812-16DEL STNC CENKillShalyn Bellset Breylan Fairley+3.0
2912-17NC CENNC CENBad setPaige Ahakuelo+3.1
3013-17NC CENDEL STKillJalia Dublinset Courtney Nix+1.9
3113-18DEL STNC CENKillShalyn Bellset Breylan Fairley+2.5
3213-19NC CENNC CENAttack errEmma Patmon+2.3
3314-19NC CENDEL STKillAaliyah Mitchellset Ailena Mykins+1.2
3414-20DEL STNC CENBlockedEmma Patmonblk Kayla Riley, Morgan Wingo+1.8
3515-20NC CENDEL STKillDuura Kpeaset Ailena Mykins+1.1
3615-21DEL STNC CENKillTalia Emmenset Hailey Gibbons+1.7
3716-21NC CENDEL STKillEmma Patmonset Ailena Mykins+0.9
3816-22DEL STNC CENKillTalia Emmenset Hailey Gibbons+1.5
3917-22NC CENDEL STKillHannah Sandersset Paige Ahakuelo+0.7
4017-23DEL STNC CEN×3KillTalia Emmenset Breylan Fairley+1.3
4117-24NC CENNC CEN×3BlockedAaliyah Mitchellblk Aniah Bass+0.6
4217-25NC CENNC CEN×3KillAniah Bassset Breylan Fairley+0.6
Set 5
10-1NC CENNC CENBlockedJalia Dublinblk Allyson Rouse, Aniah Bass+8.3
21-1NC CENDEL STAttack errTalia Emmen+6.7
31-2DEL STNC CENKillAllyson Rouseset Breylan Fairley+7.1
42-2NC CENDEL STServe errTalia Emmen+6.9
52-3DEL STNC CENKillAllyson Rouseset Breylan Fairley+7.4
63-3NC CENDEL STKillAaliyah Mitchellset Paige Ahakuelo+7.2
73-4DEL STNC CENServe errAilena Mykins+7.7
84-4NC CENDEL STKillEmma Patmonset Ailena Mykins+7.5
94-5DEL STNC CENServe errAaliyah Mitchell+8.1
105-5NC CENDEL STServe errShalyn Bell+7.9
115-6DEL STNC CENAttack errEmma Patmon+8.5
126-6NC CENDEL STKillAaliyah Mitchellset Ailena Mykins+8.3
136-7DEL STNC CENKillAllyson Rouseset Lusiana Damuni+9.1
147-7NC CENDEL STKillAmanda Santos Juliaoset Paige Ahakuelo+8.8
158-7DEL STDEL STKillHannah Sandersset Paige Ahakuelo+11.2
168-8DEL STNC CENKillTalia Emmen+9.3
179-8NC CENDEL ST×3KillPaige Ahakueloset Aaliyah Mitchell+9.8
1810-8DEL STDEL ST×3KillAaliyah Mitchellset Courtney Nix+11.6
1911-8DEL STDEL ST×3BlockedAniah Bassblk Duura Kpea, Jalia Dublin+9.9
2011-9DEL STNC CENBlockedAaliyah Mitchellblk Aniah Bass, Allyson Rouse+6.2
2111-10NC CENNC CENAttack errAaliyah Mitchell+10.9
2212-10NC CENDEL STKillJalia Dublinset Paige Ahakuelo+11.3
2312-11DEL STNC CENAttack errEmma Patmon+9.4
2412-12NC CENNC CENAttack errEmma Patmon+16.5
2513-12NC CENDEL STKillAaliyah Mitchellset Ailena Mykins+16.2
2613-13DEL STNC CENKillMorgan Wingoset Lusiana Damuni+15.9
2714-13NC CENDEL STAttack errMorgan Wingo+20.8
2815-13DEL STDEL STAttack errTalia Emmen+24.1

Score shown after each rally, Delaware St. first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).