FinalFri, Sep 11, 2026

AwaySWAC

0:3

HomeHORIZON

NIU def. Ark.-Pine Bluff 3–0

(25-11, 25-18, 25-15)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
ARK PB	11	18	15	0
NIU	25	25	25	3

RallyIQ model

Win probability

NIU above 50 · ARK PB below

Biggest swing: 0.1% to Ark.-Pine Bluff — set 2, ARK PB 10-8 NIU. Kill by Karli Glover (set by Martyna Lubowicz). NIU win probability 100% → 100%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

ARK PB 0.4%99.6% NIU

Ark.-Pine Bluff wins

3-0

0.0%

3-1

0.1%

3-2

0.3%

NIU wins

3-0

81.7%

3-1

16.0%

3-2

2.0%

ARK PB break %: 36.2% vs this opp
NIU break %: 56.9% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Karli GloverKill+0.1%
Kill by Karli Glover (set by Martyna Lubowicz)
Set 2 · ARK PB 10-8 NIU · ARK PB 0% → 0%
02
Ashanti ButlerKill+0.1%
Kill by Ashanti Butler (set by Autumn Flynn)
Set 2 · ARK PB 11-10 NIU · ARK PB 0% → 0%
03
Zuzanna ZietekKill+0.1%
Kill by Zuzanna Zietek (set by Martyna Lubowicz)
Set 2 · ARK PB 9-8 NIU · ARK PB 0% → 0%
04
Autumn FlynnKill+0.1%
Kill by Autumn Flynn (set by Viktoria Djukic)
Set 2 · ARK PB 10-10 NIU · NIU 100% → 100%
05
Rylea AlvinKill+0.1%
Kill by Rylea Alvin (set by Viktoria Djukic)
Set 2 · ARK PB 10-9 NIU · NIU 100% → 100%
06
Naomi DowdAttack error+0.1%
Attack error by Naomi Dowd
Set 2 · ARK PB 5-3 NIU · ARK PB 0% → 0%
07
Karli GloverAttack error+0.1%
Attack error by Karli Glover
Set 2 · ARK PB 11-12 NIU · NIU 100% → 100%
08
Ava GrevengoedKill+0.1%
Kill by Ava Grevengoed (set by Viktoria Djukic)
Set 2 · ARK PB 11-11 NIU · NIU 100% → 100%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Ark.-Pine Bluffaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
14Ngozi NwosuMB	3	5	4	18	.056	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	5
8Zuzanna ZietekOPP	3	4	1	10	.300	0	0	0	3	1	2	1	5
22Karli GloverOH	3	4	6	16	-.125	0	0	2	4	3	0	0	4
10Ashanti ButlerMB	3	4	3	14	.071	1	0	0	3	0	0	0	4
20Kennedy AdamsMB	3	3	2	6	.167	0	0	1	0	0	2	1	4
5Martyna LubowiczS	3	0	0	1	.000	11	0	2	3	0	0	0	0
11Marlina AndersonOH	3	3	2	9	.111	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	3
13Ava MillerS	3	0	0	1	.000	8	1	0	4	0	0	0	1
6Kinsley HooperL/DS	3	1	0	1	1.000	1	0	0	6	1	0	0	1
4Trinity GibbsL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	1	0	1	3	1	0	0	0
Team totals		24	18	76	.079	22	1	6	29	13	4	2	44

NIUhome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
3Ava GrevengoedOH	3	9	3	21	.286	1	3	2	10	0	0	1	0.5	12.5
15Autumn FlynnMB	3	7	0	8	.875	0	2	0	2	0	2	1	2.5	11.5
11Katie PahlOH	3	7	1	13	.462	0	3	3	5	0	0	1	0.5	10.5
9Delaney SteersOH	3	5	1	15	.267	0	3	1	3	1	0	0	0	8
8Rylea AlvinMB	3	3	4	11	-.091	0	0	0	0	0	4	1	4.5	7.5
6Viktoria DjukicS	3	0	0	1	.000	13	0	1	0	0	1	0	1	1
5Kylie SchulzeS	3	1	0	1	1.000	17	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	2
18Charlotte GramzowL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	2	1	1	5	0	0	0	0	1
4Kiana ShieldsMB	2	2	0	5	.400	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	0	2
14Naomi DowdOH	2	1	2	3	-.333	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
21Charizma LoftonOH	1	1	0	1	1.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
16Lilly AbneyOH	1	1	0	1	1.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team totals		37	11	80	.325	33	13	8	30	1	7	4	9	75

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 4 ARK PB · NIU 5

Set 1

11-25

Longest run 2 ARK PBNIU 5

Set 2

18-25

Longest run 3 ARK PBNIU 4

Set 3

15-25

Longest run 4 ARK PBNIU 5

Bars above the line = NIU leads, below = Ark.-Pine Bluff leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Ark.-Pine Bluff

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	58%7/12	0%0/6
2	41%7/17	36%4/11
3	33%6/18	22%2/9
4	50%4/8	40%4/10
5	50%4/8	33%2/6
6	40%4/10	0%0/4
All	44%32/73	26%12/46

NIU

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	78%7/9	50%5/10
2	78%7/9	46%6/13
3	67%6/9	70%14/20
4	60%6/10	54%7/13
5	80%4/5	67%8/12
6	100%4/4	20%1/5
All	74%34/46	56%41/73

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

119 rallies

Rally log

#	ARK PB-NIU	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	0-1	ARK PB	NIU	Kill	Katie Pahl	set Viktoria Djukic	+0.0
2	0-2	NIU	NIU	Attack err	Karli Glover		+0.0
3	1-2	NIU	ARK PB	Attack err	Katie Pahl		+0.0
4	1-3	ARK PB	NIU×5	Kill	Katie Pahl	set Viktoria Djukic	+0.0
5	1-4	NIU	NIU×5	Attack err	Ashanti Butler	blk Autumn Flynn	+0.0
6	1-5	NIU	NIU×5	Ace	NIU server	aced Karli Glover	+0.0
7	1-6	NIU	NIU×5	Ace	NIU server	aced Karli Glover	+0.0
8	1-7	NIU	NIU×5	Kill	Ava Grevengoed	set Viktoria Djukic	+0.0
9	2-7	NIU	ARK PB	Kill	Ashanti Butler	set Martyna Lubowicz	+0.0
10	3-7	ARK PB	ARK PB	Attack err	Ava Grevengoed	blk Zuzanna Zietek, Kennedy Adams	+0.0
11	3-8	ARK PB	NIU	Kill	Autumn Flynn	set Kylie Schulze	+0.0
12	3-9	NIU	NIU	Ace	NIU server	aced Team	+0.0
13	4-9	NIU	ARK PB	Serve err	NIU server		+0.0
14	4-10	ARK PB	NIU	Kill	Autumn Flynn	set Kylie Schulze	+0.0
15	4-11	NIU	NIU	Ace	NIU server	aced Team	+0.0
16	5-11	NIU	ARK PB	Kill	Ngozi Nwosu	set Ava Miller	+0.0
17	6-11	ARK PB	ARK PB	Attack err	Rylea Alvin		+0.0
18	6-12	ARK PB	NIU	Serve err	ARK PB server		+0.0
19	7-12	NIU	ARK PB	Kill	Karli Glover	set Ava Miller	+0.0
20	7-13	ARK PB	NIU×4	Attack err	Karli Glover		+0.0
21	7-14	NIU	NIU×4	Ace	NIU server	aced Team	+0.0
22	7-15	NIU	NIU×4	Kill	Rylea Alvin		+0.0
23	7-16	NIU	NIU×4	Attack err	Marlina Anderson	blk Rylea Alvin, Ava Grevengoed	+0.0
24	8-16	NIU	ARK PB	Serve err	NIU server		+0.0
25	8-17	ARK PB	NIU×3	Serve err	ARK PB server		+0.0
26	8-18	NIU	NIU×3	Attack err	Zuzanna Zietek	blk Katie Pahl, Autumn Flynn	+0.0
27	8-19	NIU	NIU×3	Attack err	Karli Glover		+0.0
28	9-19	NIU	ARK PB	Serve err	NIU server		+0.0
29	9-20	ARK PB	NIU×4	Serve err	ARK PB server		+0.0
30	9-21	NIU	NIU×4	Attack err	Ashanti Butler		+0.0
31	9-22	NIU	NIU×4	Ace	NIU server	aced Team	+0.0
32	9-23	NIU	NIU×4	Attack err	Ngozi Nwosu	blk Viktoria Djukic	+0.0
33	10-23	NIU	ARK PB	Serve err	NIU server		+0.0
34	10-24	ARK PB	NIU	Kill	Charizma Lofton	set Kylie Schulze	+0.0
35	11-24	NIU	ARK PB	Kill	Kennedy Adams	set Martyna Lubowicz	+0.0
36	11-25	ARK PB	NIU	Kill	Autumn Flynn	set Kylie Schulze	+0.0
Set 2
1	1-0	NIU	ARK PB	Attack err	Rylea Alvin		+0.0
2	1-1	ARK PB	NIU	Kill	Ava Grevengoed	set Viktoria Djukic	+0.0
3	2-1	NIU	ARK PB	Kill	Zuzanna Zietek	set Martyna Lubowicz	+0.0
4	2-2	ARK PB	NIU	Kill	Katie Pahl	set Viktoria Djukic	+0.0
5	3-2	NIU	ARK PB	Serve err	NIU server		+0.0
6	3-3	ARK PB	NIU	Kill	Ava Grevengoed	set Kylie Schulze	+0.0
7	4-3	NIU	ARK PB	Serve err	NIU server		+0.0
8	5-3	ARK PB	ARK PB	Attack err	Naomi Dowd		+0.1
9	5-4	ARK PB	NIU	Kill	Kylie Schulze	set Karli Glover	+0.0
10	5-5	NIU	NIU	Attack err	Kennedy Adams	blk Rylea Alvin	+0.0
11	6-5	NIU	ARK PB	Kill	Ngozi Nwosu	set Ava Miller	+0.1
12	6-6	ARK PB	NIU	Kill	Naomi Dowd	set Kylie Schulze	+0.0
13	6-7	NIU	NIU	Kill	Delaney Steers	set Viktoria Djukic	+0.0
14	7-7	NIU	ARK PB	Kill	Kinsley Hooper	set Trinity Gibbs	+0.0
15	7-8	ARK PB	NIU	Kill	Delaney Steers	set Ava Grevengoed	+0.0
16	8-8	NIU	ARK PB×3	Kill	Marlina Anderson	set Ava Miller	+0.1
17	9-8	ARK PB	ARK PB×3	Kill	Zuzanna Zietek	set Martyna Lubowicz	+0.1
18	10-8	ARK PB	ARK PB×3	Kill	Karli Glover	set Martyna Lubowicz	+0.1
19	10-9	ARK PB	NIU	Kill	Rylea Alvin	set Viktoria Djukic	+0.1
20	10-10	NIU	NIU	Kill	Autumn Flynn	set Viktoria Djukic	+0.1
21	11-10	NIU	ARK PB	Kill	Ashanti Butler	set Autumn Flynn	+0.1
22	11-11	ARK PB	NIU×4	Kill	Ava Grevengoed	set Viktoria Djukic	+0.1
23	11-12	NIU	NIU×4	Attack err	Karli Glover		+0.1
24	11-13	NIU	NIU×4	Kill	Autumn Flynn		+0.1
25	11-14	NIU	NIU×4	Kill	Ava Grevengoed	set Martyna Lubowicz	+0.0
26	12-14	NIU	ARK PB	Serve err	NIU server		+0.0
27	13-14	ARK PB	ARK PB	Attack err	Naomi Dowd		+0.1
28	13-15	ARK PB	NIU	Kill	Autumn Flynn	set Kylie Schulze	+0.1
29	14-15	NIU	ARK PB	Kill	Ngozi Nwosu	set Martyna Lubowicz	+0.1
30	14-16	ARK PB	NIU×4	Attack err	Kennedy Adams	blk Autumn Flynn	+0.1
31	14-17	NIU	NIU×4	Kill	Delaney Steers	set Kylie Schulze	+0.1
32	14-18	NIU	NIU×4	Kill	Rylea Alvin	set Kylie Schulze	+0.0
33	14-19	NIU	NIU×4	Kill	Kiana Shields	set Kylie Schulze	+0.0
34	15-19	NIU	ARK PB	Kill	Marlina Anderson	set Ava Miller	+0.0
35	15-20	ARK PB	NIU	Kill	Kiana Shields	set Kylie Schulze	+0.0
36	16-20	NIU	ARK PB	Serve err	NIU server		+0.0
37	16-21	ARK PB	NIU	Attack err	Marlina Anderson		+0.0
38	17-21	NIU	ARK PB	Attack err	Rylea Alvin		+0.0
39	17-22	ARK PB	NIU	Kill	Katie Pahl	set Viktoria Djukic	+0.0
40	18-22	NIU	ARK PB	Attack err	Ava Grevengoed		+0.0
41	18-23	ARK PB	NIU×3	Kill	Katie Pahl	set Viktoria Djukic	+0.0
42	18-24	NIU	NIU×3	Kill	Ava Grevengoed	set Charlotte Gramzow	+0.0
43	18-25	NIU	NIU×3	Ace	NIU server	aced Kinsley Hooper	+0.0
Set 3
1	0-1	ARK PB	NIU	Serve err	ARK PB server		+0.0
2	1-1	NIU	ARK PB×3	Kill	Karli Glover	set Martyna Lubowicz	+0.0
3	2-1	ARK PB	ARK PB×3	Kill	Zuzanna Zietek	set Ashanti Butler	+0.0
4	3-1	ARK PB	ARK PB×3	Kill	Zuzanna Zietek	set Kinsley Hooper	+0.0
5	3-2	ARK PB	NIU×3	Serve err	ARK PB server		+0.0
6	3-3	NIU	NIU×3	Attack err	Karli Glover	blk Rylea Alvin	+0.0
7	3-4	NIU	NIU×3	Kill	Ava Grevengoed	set Charlotte Gramzow	+0.0
8	4-4	NIU	ARK PB	Kill	Ashanti Butler	set Martyna Lubowicz	+0.0
9	5-4	ARK PB	ARK PB	Attack err	Rylea Alvin	blk Zuzanna Zietek, Kennedy Adams	+0.0
10	5-5	ARK PB	NIU×3	Kill	Ava Grevengoed	set Kylie Schulze	+0.0
11	5-6	NIU	NIU×3	Attack err	Ngozi Nwosu	blk Rylea Alvin	+0.0
12	5-7	NIU	NIU×3	Kill	Delaney Steers	set Kylie Schulze	+0.0
13	6-7	NIU	ARK PB×4	Attack err	Delaney Steers		+0.0
14	7-7	ARK PB	ARK PB×4	Ace	ARK PB server	aced Delaney Steers	+0.0
15	8-7	ARK PB	ARK PB×4	Kill	Ngozi Nwosu	set Ava Miller	+0.0
16	9-7	ARK PB	ARK PB×4	Kill	Kennedy Adams	set Ava Miller	+0.0
17	9-8	ARK PB	NIU	Kill	Delaney Steers	set Kylie Schulze	+0.0
18	10-8	NIU	ARK PB	Attack err	Ava Grevengoed		+0.0
19	10-9	ARK PB	NIU	Kill	Autumn Flynn	set Kylie Schulze	+0.0
20	11-9	NIU	ARK PB	Kill	Marlina Anderson	set Ava Miller	+0.0
21	11-10	ARK PB	NIU×3	Serve err	ARK PB server		+0.0
22	11-11	NIU	NIU×3	Ace	NIU server	aced Karli Glover	+0.0
23	11-12	NIU	NIU×3	Ace	NIU server	aced Team	+0.0
24	12-12	NIU	ARK PB	Kill	Ashanti Butler	set Ava Miller	+0.0
25	12-13	ARK PB	NIU×3	Kill	Katie Pahl	set Viktoria Djukic	+0.0
26	12-14	NIU	NIU×3	Ace	NIU server	aced Trinity Gibbs	+0.0
27	12-15	NIU	NIU×3	Attack err	Ashanti Butler	blk Rylea Alvin	+0.0
28	13-15	NIU	ARK PB	Kill	Karli Glover	set Martyna Lubowicz	+0.0
29	13-16	ARK PB	NIU	Kill	Katie Pahl	set Viktoria Djukic	+0.0
30	14-16	NIU	ARK PB	Kill	Ngozi Nwosu	set Martyna Lubowicz	+0.0
31	14-17	ARK PB	NIU×5	Attack err	Karli Glover		+0.0
32	14-18	NIU	NIU×5	Bad set	Martyna Lubowicz		+0.0
33	14-19	NIU	NIU×5	Attack err	Ngozi Nwosu		+0.0
34	14-20	NIU	NIU×5	Ace	NIU server	aced Team	+0.0
35	14-21	NIU	NIU×5	Ace	NIU server	aced Zuzanna Zietek	+0.0
36	15-21	NIU	ARK PB	Kill	Kennedy Adams	set Martyna Lubowicz	+0.0
37	15-22	ARK PB	NIU×4	Attack err	Ngozi Nwosu		+0.0
38	15-23	NIU	NIU×4	Kill	Ava Grevengoed	set Kylie Schulze	+0.0
39	15-24	NIU	NIU×4	Kill	Lilly Abney	set Kylie Schulze	+0.0
40	15-25	NIU	NIU×4	Ace	NIU server	aced Team	+0.0

Score shown after each rally, Ark.-Pine Bluff first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.