FinalSat, Sep 12, 2026

AwaySWAC

3:0

HomeNEC

Ark.-Pine Bluff def. Chicago St. 3–0

(25-23, 25-23, 25-21)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
ARK PB	25	25	25	3
CHI ST	23	23	21	0

RallyIQ model

Win probability

CHI ST above 50 · ARK PB below

Biggest swing: 6.5% to Ark.-Pine Bluff — set 1, ARK PB 25-23 CHI ST. Kill by Zuzanna Zietek (set by Martyna Lubowicz). CHI ST win probability 21% → 14%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

ARK PB 74.2%25.8% CHI ST

Ark.-Pine Bluff wins

3-0

26.4%

3-1

28.4%

3-2

19.4%

Chicago St. wins

3-0

4.6%

3-1

8.9%

3-2

12.3%

ARK PB break %: 50.7% vs this opp
CHI ST break %: 45.7% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Zuzanna ZietekKill+6.5%
Kill by Zuzanna Zietek (set by Martyna Lubowicz)
Set 1 · ARK PB 25-23 CHI ST · ARK PB 79% → 86%
02
Kaylen RobinsonKill+5.2%
Kill by Kaylen Robinson (set by Ava Miller)
Set 2 · ARK PB 25-23 CHI ST · ARK PB 90% → 95%
03
CHI ST serverService error+4.2%
Chicago St. service error
Set 1 · ARK PB 23-21 CHI ST · ARK PB 77% → 81%
04
Graci LittlejohnAttack error+3.8%
Attack error by Graci Littlejohn
Set 1 · ARK PB 20-19 CHI ST · ARK PB 72% → 76%
05
ARK PB serverAce+3.7%
Ark.-Pine Bluff ace on Nayella George
Set 1 · ARK PB 19-19 CHI ST · ARK PB 68% → 72%
06
ARK PB serverAce+3.6%
Ark.-Pine Bluff ace on Nayella George
Set 1 · ARK PB 21-19 CHI ST · ARK PB 76% → 79%
07
CHI ST serverAce+3.6%
Chicago St. ace on Team
Set 1 · ARK PB 16-18 CHI ST · CHI ST 31% → 34%
08
Camryn McCollumKill+3.5%
Kill by Camryn McCollum (set by Kristine Bakhad)
Set 1 · ARK PB 17-19 CHI ST · CHI ST 31% → 35%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Ark.-Pine Bluffaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
22Karli GloverOH	3	10	5	31	.161	0	1	1	11	0	0	0	11
8Zuzanna ZietekOPP	3	9	4	18	.278	1	0	0	4	0	1	0.5	9.5
14Ngozi NwosuMB	3	6	4	15	.133	0	0	0	5	3	1	0.5	6.5
20Kennedy AdamsMB	3	3	1	11	.182	1	2	0	1	0	3	1.5	6.5
10Ashanti ButlerMB	3	4	5	19	-.053	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	4
5Martyna LubowiczS	3	0	0	0	–	20	0	3	3	0	0	0	0
6Kinsley HooperL/DS	3	0	2	3	-.667	3	1	1	16	1	0	0	1
13Ava MillerS	3	0	0	0	–	7	1	1	2	0	0	0	1
4Trinity GibbsL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	1	0	3	2	0	0	1
12Kaylen RobinsonOH	2	4	0	5	.800	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.5	4.5
11Marlina AndersonOH	1	1	2	4	-.250	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
3J'nyah OdomMB	1	0	0	0	–	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	0
7London KingMB	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		37	23	106	.132	34	6	7	48	9	6	3	75

Chicago St.home

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
3Graci LittlejohnMB	3	6	6	20	.000	0	0	0	0	0	1	7	4.5	10.5
9Nina MitchellOH	3	7	3	29	.138	0	1	3	0	0	0	0	0	8
8Kristine BakhadS	3	2	4	15	-.133	17	3	1	6	0	0	3	1.5	6.5
11Nayella GeorgeOH	3	4	3	20	.050	0	0	0	15	3	0	2	1	5
2Camryn McCollumOH	3	4	4	13	.000	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	4
17Hailee CollinsS	3	0	0	1	.000	7	0	1	3	0	0	0	0	0
4Jenesis PerrinMB	3	3	0	3	1.000	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	1	4
7Reece MazzierL/DS	3	1	0	1	1.000	0	3	0	3	0	0	0	0	4
6Tenese ButtryDS	3	0	0	0	–	0	2	0	1	0	0	0	0	2
12Skye RileyOH	3	0	0	0	–	1	0	1	8	1	0	0	0	0
10Eliza CovrigL/DS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
1Rayon ThigpenMB	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		27	20	102	.069	26	9	6	39	6	1	14	8	67

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 7 ARK PB · CHI ST 7

Set 1

25-23

Longest run 5 ARK PBCHI ST 4

Set 2

25-23

Longest run 5 ARK PBCHI ST 7

Set 3

25-21

Longest run 7 ARK PBCHI ST 6

Bars above the line = Chicago St. leads, below = Ark.-Pine Bluff leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Ark.-Pine Bluff

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	54%7/13	57%8/14
2	50%5/10	74%14/19
3	83%5/6	64%9/14
4	28%5/18	44%4/9
5	63%5/8	29%2/7
6	38%5/13	55%6/11
All	47%32/68	58%43/74

Chicago St.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	33%7/21	58%7/12
2	28%5/18	46%6/13
3	50%5/10	50%5/10
4	56%5/9	58%7/12
5	83%5/6	55%6/11
6	40%4/10	50%5/10
All	42%31/74	53%36/68

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

142 rallies

Rally log

#	ARK PB-CHI ST	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	ARK PB	ARK PB	Kill	Zuzanna Zietek	set Kinsley Hooper	+1.7
2	2-0	ARK PB	ARK PB	Kill	Karli Glover	set Martyna Lubowicz	+1.6
3	2-1	ARK PB	CHI ST×4	Kill	Nayella George	set Hailee Collins	+1.5
4	2-2	CHI ST	CHI ST×4	Attack err	Ashanti Butler		+1.8
5	2-3	CHI ST	CHI ST×4	Attack err	Karli Glover		+2.0
6	2-4	CHI ST	CHI ST×4	Attack err	Zuzanna Zietek	blk Graci Littlejohn, Kristine Bakhad	+2.1
7	3-4	CHI ST	ARK PB	Kill	Ashanti Butler	set Martyna Lubowicz	+1.8
8	4-4	ARK PB	ARK PB	Kill	Zuzanna Zietek	set Martyna Lubowicz	+1.9
9	4-5	ARK PB	CHI ST	Kill	Graci Littlejohn	set Hailee Collins	+1.9
10	5-5	CHI ST	ARK PB	Serve err	CHI ST server		+1.8
11	5-6	ARK PB	CHI ST	Kill	Nina Mitchell	set Camryn McCollum	+2.0
12	6-6	CHI ST	ARK PB	Kill	Ngozi Nwosu	set Martyna Lubowicz	+1.9
13	6-7	ARK PB	CHI ST	Kill	Nina Mitchell	set Kristine Bakhad	+2.1
14	7-7	CHI ST	ARK PB	Serve err	CHI ST server		+2.0
15	7-8	ARK PB	CHI ST×4	Kill	Nayella George	set Kristine Bakhad	+2.1
16	7-9	CHI ST	CHI ST×4	Kill	Graci Littlejohn	set Kristine Bakhad	+2.4
17	7-10	CHI ST	CHI ST×4	Attack err	Karli Glover	blk Graci Littlejohn, Jenesis Perrin	+2.5
18	7-11	CHI ST	CHI ST×4	Ace	CHI ST server	aced Trinity Gibbs	+2.4
19	8-11	CHI ST	ARK PB	Kill	Marlina Anderson	set Ava Miller	+1.9
20	8-12	ARK PB	CHI ST	Kill	Nayella George	set Kristine Bakhad	+2.3
21	8-13	CHI ST	CHI ST	Attack err	Marlina Anderson	blk Graci Littlejohn, Nayella George	+2.3
22	9-13	CHI ST	ARK PB×4	Kill	Karli Glover		+1.8
23	10-13	ARK PB	ARK PB×4	Attack err	Kristine Bakhad		+2.1
24	11-13	ARK PB	ARK PB×4	Kill	Zuzanna Zietek	set Ashanti Butler	+2.4
25	12-13	ARK PB	ARK PB×4	Attack err	Graci Littlejohn		+2.5
26	12-14	ARK PB	CHI ST	Serve err	ARK PB server		+2.7
27	13-14	CHI ST	ARK PB	Kill	Karli Glover	set Kinsley Hooper	+2.4
28	13-15	ARK PB	CHI ST	Kill	Kristine Bakhad	set Hailee Collins	+2.8
29	14-15	CHI ST	ARK PB	Attack err	Kristine Bakhad	blk Ngozi Nwosu, Kennedy Adams	+2.5
30	14-16	ARK PB	CHI ST	Attack err	Kinsley Hooper		+3.0
31	15-16	CHI ST	ARK PB	Serve err	CHI ST server		+2.7
32	16-16	ARK PB	ARK PB	Attack err	Camryn McCollum		+3.0
33	16-17	ARK PB	CHI ST	Kill	Nina Mitchell	set Kristine Bakhad	+3.1
34	16-18	CHI ST	CHI ST	Ace	CHI ST server	aced Team	+3.6
35	17-18	CHI ST	ARK PB	Serve err	CHI ST server		+2.9
36	17-19	ARK PB	CHI ST	Kill	Camryn McCollum	set Kristine Bakhad	+3.5
37	18-19	CHI ST	ARK PB×5	Kill	Kennedy Adams	set Ava Miller	+3.1
38	19-19	ARK PB	ARK PB×5	Ace	ARK PB server	aced Nayella George	+3.7
39	20-19	ARK PB	ARK PB×5	Attack err	Graci Littlejohn		+3.8
40	21-19	ARK PB	ARK PB×5	Ace	ARK PB server	aced Nayella George	+3.6
41	22-19	ARK PB	ARK PB×5	Kill	Karli Glover	set Skye Riley	+3.0
42	22-20	ARK PB	CHI ST	Kill	Jenesis Perrin	set Kristine Bakhad	+2.1
43	22-21	CHI ST	CHI ST	Attack err	Marlina Anderson	blk Graci Littlejohn, Nayella George	+3.5
44	23-21	CHI ST	ARK PB	Serve err	CHI ST server		+4.2
45	24-21	ARK PB	ARK PB	Bad set	Hailee Collins		+3.3
46	24-22	ARK PB	CHI ST	Serve err	ARK PB server		+1.5
47	24-23	CHI ST	CHI ST	Attack err	Zuzanna Zietek	blk Kristine Bakhad, Graci Littlejohn	+3.5
48	25-23	CHI ST	ARK PB	Kill	Zuzanna Zietek	set Martyna Lubowicz	+6.5
Set 2
1	1-0	CHI ST	ARK PB×4	Kill	Ashanti Butler	set Martyna Lubowicz	+1.3
2	2-0	ARK PB	ARK PB×4	Kill	Zuzanna Zietek	set Martyna Lubowicz	+1.3
3	3-0	ARK PB	ARK PB×4	Attack err	Graci Littlejohn		+1.2
4	4-0	ARK PB	ARK PB×4	Attack err	Nayella George		+1.1
5	4-1	ARK PB	CHI ST	Attack err	Karli Glover		+1.0
6	5-1	CHI ST	ARK PB	Kill	Zuzanna Zietek	set Kinsley Hooper	+1.0
7	6-1	ARK PB	ARK PB	Bad set	Hailee Collins		+1.0
8	6-2	ARK PB	CHI ST	Kill	Graci Littlejohn	set Hailee Collins	+0.8
9	6-3	CHI ST	CHI ST	Attack err	Ngozi Nwosu		+1.1
10	7-3	CHI ST	ARK PB	Kill	Zuzanna Zietek	set Martyna Lubowicz	+1.1
11	7-4	ARK PB	CHI ST	Kill	Nina Mitchell	set Hailee Collins	+1.0
12	7-5	CHI ST	CHI ST	Ace	CHI ST server	aced Ngozi Nwosu	+1.3
13	8-5	CHI ST	ARK PB	Bad set	Nina Mitchell		+1.3
14	8-6	ARK PB	CHI ST	Serve err	ARK PB server		+1.2
15	9-6	CHI ST	ARK PB	Serve err	CHI ST server		+1.3
16	9-7	ARK PB	CHI ST	Kill	Nayella George	set Kristine Bakhad	+1.3
17	10-7	CHI ST	ARK PB	Attack err	Nayella George		+1.3
18	10-8	ARK PB	CHI ST	Attack err	Karli Glover	blk Jenesis Perrin, Graci Littlejohn	+1.3
19	10-9	CHI ST	CHI ST	Attack err	Ashanti Butler	blk Graci Littlejohn, Kristine Bakhad	+1.6
20	11-9	CHI ST	ARK PB×4	Kill	Kaylen Robinson	set Ava Miller	+1.5
21	12-9	ARK PB	ARK PB×4	Attack err	Kristine Bakhad		+1.5
22	13-9	ARK PB	ARK PB×4	Attack err	Graci Littlejohn		+1.3
23	14-9	ARK PB	ARK PB×4	Attack err	Graci Littlejohn		+1.1
24	14-10	ARK PB	CHI ST	Kill	Graci Littlejohn	set Hailee Collins	+0.9
25	14-11	CHI ST	CHI ST	Kill	Nina Mitchell	set Hailee Collins	+1.2
26	15-11	CHI ST	ARK PB×5	Kill	Karli Glover	set Martyna Lubowicz	+1.3
27	16-11	ARK PB	ARK PB×5	Ace	ARK PB server	aced Team	+1.1
28	17-11	ARK PB	ARK PB×5	Bad set	Kristine Bakhad		+0.9
29	18-11	ARK PB	ARK PB×5	Attack err	Nina Mitchell		+0.6
30	19-11	ARK PB	ARK PB×5	Attack err	Nina Mitchell		+0.4
31	19-12	ARK PB	CHI ST	Attack err	Zuzanna Zietek		+0.2
32	20-12	CHI ST	ARK PB	Kill	Ngozi Nwosu	set Martyna Lubowicz	+0.3
33	21-12	ARK PB	ARK PB	Ace	ARK PB server	aced Nayella George	+0.2
34	21-13	ARK PB	CHI ST×7	Kill	Nina Mitchell	set Kristine Bakhad	+0.1
35	21-14	CHI ST	CHI ST×7	Attack err	Zuzanna Zietek		+0.2
36	21-15	CHI ST	CHI ST×7	Attack err	Kinsley Hooper		+0.3
37	21-16	CHI ST	CHI ST×7	Ace	CHI ST server	aced Ngozi Nwosu	+0.5
38	21-17	CHI ST	CHI ST×7	Kill	Camryn McCollum	set Kristine Bakhad	+0.8
39	21-18	CHI ST	CHI ST×7	Ace	CHI ST server	aced Team	+1.2
40	21-19	CHI ST	CHI ST×7	Kill	Jenesis Perrin	set Skye Riley	+1.8
41	22-19	CHI ST	ARK PB	Kill	Kennedy Adams	set Martyna Lubowicz	+2.2
42	23-19	ARK PB	ARK PB	Attack err	Camryn McCollum	blk Kennedy Adams, Kaylen Robinson	+1.6
43	23-20	ARK PB	CHI ST	Attack err	Ngozi Nwosu		+0.9
44	24-20	CHI ST	ARK PB	Kill	Kaylen Robinson	set Ava Miller	+1.4
45	24-21	ARK PB	CHI ST×3	Kill	Jenesis Perrin	set Kristine Bakhad	+0.5
46	24-22	CHI ST	CHI ST×3	Ace	CHI ST server	aced Trinity Gibbs	+1.3
47	24-23	CHI ST	CHI ST×3	Kill	Graci Littlejohn	set Kristine Bakhad	+2.8
48	25-23	CHI ST	ARK PB	Kill	Kaylen Robinson	set Ava Miller	+5.2
Set 3
1	1-0	ARK PB	ARK PB	Kill	Karli Glover		+0.7
2	1-1	ARK PB	CHI ST	Serve err	ARK PB server		+0.7
3	2-1	CHI ST	ARK PB×7	Bad set	Skye Riley		+0.7
4	3-1	ARK PB	ARK PB×7	Kill	Ngozi Nwosu	set Martyna Lubowicz	+0.7
5	4-1	ARK PB	ARK PB×7	Attack err	Nina Mitchell		+0.7
6	5-1	ARK PB	ARK PB×7	Bad set	Kristine Bakhad		+0.6
7	6-1	ARK PB	ARK PB×7	Kill	Zuzanna Zietek	set Martyna Lubowicz	+0.5
8	7-1	ARK PB	ARK PB×7	Kill	Ngozi Nwosu	set Martyna Lubowicz	+0.4
9	8-1	ARK PB	ARK PB×7	Attack err	Camryn McCollum		+0.4
10	8-2	ARK PB	CHI ST×5	Serve err	ARK PB server		+0.3
11	8-3	CHI ST	CHI ST×5	Attack err	Ngozi Nwosu		+0.4
12	8-4	CHI ST	CHI ST×5	Kill	Nina Mitchell	set Kristine Bakhad	+0.5
13	8-5	CHI ST	CHI ST×5	Kill	Graci Littlejohn	set Kristine Bakhad	+0.6
14	8-6	CHI ST	CHI ST×5	Bad set	Ngozi Nwosu		+0.7
15	9-6	CHI ST	ARK PB×5	Kill	Ashanti Butler	set Martyna Lubowicz	+0.7
16	10-6	ARK PB	ARK PB×5	Kill	Karli Glover	set Zuzanna Zietek	+0.7
17	11-6	ARK PB	ARK PB×5	Kill	Karli Glover	set Martyna Lubowicz	+0.6
18	12-6	ARK PB	ARK PB×5	Attack err	Graci Littlejohn	blk Kennedy Adams, Zuzanna Zietek	+0.5
19	13-6	ARK PB	ARK PB×5	Kill	Kennedy Adams	set Martyna Lubowicz	+0.4
20	13-7	ARK PB	CHI ST	Serve err	ARK PB server		+0.3
21	14-7	CHI ST	ARK PB×3	Attack err	Kristine Bakhad		+0.3
22	15-7	ARK PB	ARK PB×3	Kill	Ngozi Nwosu	set Kennedy Adams	+0.3
23	16-7	ARK PB	ARK PB×3	Ace	ARK PB server	aced Team	+0.2
24	16-8	ARK PB	CHI ST×6	Attack err	Ngozi Nwosu		+0.1
25	16-9	CHI ST	CHI ST×6	Ace	CHI ST server	aced Ngozi Nwosu	+0.2
26	16-10	CHI ST	CHI ST×6	Attack err	Kennedy Adams	blk Graci Littlejohn	+0.3
27	16-11	CHI ST	CHI ST×6	Ace	CHI ST server	aced Team	+0.4
28	16-12	CHI ST	CHI ST×6	Ace	CHI ST server	aced Kinsley Hooper	+0.5
29	16-13	CHI ST	CHI ST×6	Kill	Reece Mazzier	set Kristine Bakhad	+0.7
30	17-13	CHI ST	ARK PB	Kill	Ngozi Nwosu	set Ava Miller	+0.7
31	18-13	ARK PB	ARK PB	Ace	ARK PB server	aced Skye Riley	+0.6
32	18-14	ARK PB	CHI ST	Kill	Kristine Bakhad	set Hailee Collins	+0.5
33	19-14	CHI ST	ARK PB×3	Kill	Kaylen Robinson	set J'nyah Odom	+0.6
34	20-14	ARK PB	ARK PB×3	Attack err	Nayella George		+0.4
35	21-14	ARK PB	ARK PB×3	Attack err	Camryn McCollum		+0.3
36	21-15	ARK PB	CHI ST×5	Serve err	ARK PB server		+0.1
37	21-16	CHI ST	CHI ST×5	Attack err	Ashanti Butler		+0.3
38	21-17	CHI ST	CHI ST×5	Attack err	Ashanti Butler		+0.4
39	21-18	CHI ST	CHI ST×5	Attack err	Ashanti Butler		+0.6
40	21-19	CHI ST	CHI ST×5	Kill	Camryn McCollum	set Kristine Bakhad	+1.0
41	22-19	CHI ST	ARK PB	Kill	Karli Glover	set Ava Miller	+1.2
42	23-19	ARK PB	ARK PB	Kill	Karli Glover	set Martyna Lubowicz	+0.9
43	23-20	ARK PB	CHI ST	Kill	Camryn McCollum	set Kristine Bakhad	+0.5
44	23-21	CHI ST	CHI ST	Attack err	Karli Glover		+0.9
45	24-21	CHI ST	ARK PB	Kill	Zuzanna Zietek	set Martyna Lubowicz	+1.3
46	25-21	ARK PB	ARK PB	Kill	Ashanti Butler	set Martyna Lubowicz	+0.6

Score shown after each rally, Ark.-Pine Bluff first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.