Final · 4 setsSat, Oct 10, 2026Watch on ESPN+

UT Arlington def. Little Rock 3–1

RallyIQ pre-match: Little Rock 66.7% · upsetLocked before first serve (Oct 10, 12:56 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

UT Arlington won at Little Rock 3-1 (19-25, 27-25, 25-23, 25-19) on Sat, Oct 10, 2026. Camryn Mcminn led UT Arlington with 15 kills; Little Rock's Polianna Hernandez had a match-high 19.

Data through · final Oct 10

Set1234Sets
TX ARL192725253
UALR252523191

Match story · written from the play-by-play

4 aces from Eliana Collins, and UT Arlington needed each of them.

The match turned 3 times. Numbers are UT Arlington's win probability from the RallyIQ model, rally by rally. Pre-match, Little Rock was RallyIQ's 67% pick.

  1. Turning point 1: Set 3 · UT Arlington 8–5 Little Rock

    Down 5–8, Little Rock scored 5 straight to lead 10–8.

    UT Arlington 48% → 30%

  2. Turning point 2: Set 3 · UT Arlington 22–22 Little Rock

    UT Arlington closed it, 3 of the final 4 rallies, to take the set 25–23 and lead 2–1. The match swung to UT Arlington.

    UT Arlington 38% → 65%

  3. Turning point 3: Set 4 · UT Arlington 3–4 Little Rock

    UT Arlington scored 6 straight to turn a 3–4 deficit into a 9–4 lead.

    UT Arlington 63% → 87%

Little Rock above 50UT Arlington belowMax swing 14.5%

UT ArlingtonLittle Rock

Sideout %
UT Arlington 57.0·Little Rock 54.7
Break %
UT Arlington 45.3·Little Rock 43.0
Hitting
UT Arlington .189·Little Rock .217
Longest run
UT Arlington 6·Little Rock 5

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Little Rock above 50 · UT Arlington below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100+14.5% TX ARLrally 188 · set 4

Biggest swing: 14.5% to UT Arlington — set 3, TX ARL 25-23 UALR. Attack error by Alyssa Boyte. UALR win probability 49% → 35%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

TX ARL 47.7%52.3% UALR

UT Arlington wins

3-0
11.6%
3-1
17.8%
3-2
18.4%

Little Rock wins

3-0
13.5%
3-1
19.7%
3-2
19.1%
TX ARL break %
42.0% vs this opp
UALR break %
42.4% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Alyssa BoyteAttack error+14.5%

    Attack error by Alyssa Boyte

    Set 3 · TX ARL 25-23 UALR · TX ARL 51% → 65%

  2. 02
    Hana AianaKill+10.6%

    Kill by Hana Aiana (set by Erica Dellesky)

    Set 3 · TX ARL 23-22 UALR · TX ARL 38% → 48%

  3. 03
    Hana AianaKill+9.7%

    Kill by Hana Aiana (set by Erica Dellesky)

    Set 3 · TX ARL 24-23 UALR · TX ARL 41% → 51%

  4. 04

    Polianna Hernandez stuffed by Hana Aiana & Evyn Snook

    Set 2 · TX ARL 27-25 UALR · TX ARL 28% → 37%

  5. 05
    Avery FearnleyAttack error+7.3%

    Attack error by Avery Fearnley

    Set 3 · TX ARL 21-21 UALR · TX ARL 30% → 38%

  6. 06
    Lorena KeseljKill+7.1%

    Kill by Lorena Keselj (set by Lily King)

    Set 3 · TX ARL 23-23 UALR · UALR 52% → 59%

  7. 07
    Camryn McminnAttack error+6.2%

    Attack error by Camryn Mcminn

    Set 2 · TX ARL 23-23 UALR · UALR 72% → 78%

  8. 08

    Kill by Polianna Hernandez (set by Lily King)

    Set 3 · TX ARL 21-22 UALR · UALR 62% → 68%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
415542.23821315100016
412340.2250218104216
412631.1941012016416
47619.05300010010.57.5
4208.250100000213
4001.00039101500423
4000–041000004
4104.25000000010.51.5
4001.0003121710001
4000–010700001
4012-.500000000000
4000–000000000
4000–000000000
Team totals4921148.189461086531181096
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
419535.4000006002120
415741.195014123132.518.5
412532.21910030132.514.5
46018.3331114014310
42320-.05000020010.52.5
4103.3332511400002
4214.2502200300213
4023-.667000000000
4001.0001032010000
4000–001000000
4000–000000000
4000–000500000
4000–302730000
Team totals5723157.21753312661031510.592

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

UT Arlington vs Little Rock

Season series · Series tied 1-1

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 6 TX ARL · UALR 5

Set 1

19-25

Longest run 3 TX ARLUALR 4

Set 2

27-25

Longest run 4 TX ARLUALR 5

Set 3

25-23

Longest run 3 TX ARLUALR 5

Set 4

25-19

Longest run 6 TX ARLUALR 4

Bars above the line = Little Rock leads, below = UT Arlington leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

UT Arlington

SlotSideout %Break %
1
67%8/12
40%4/10
2
54%7/13
43%6/14
3
64%7/11
22%2/9
4
67%6/9
50%6/12
5
60%6/10
60%9/15
6
38%5/13
38%3/8
All
57%39/68
44%30/68

Little Rock

SlotSideout %Break %
1
62%8/13
30%3/10
2
58%7/12
50%7/14
3
55%6/11
46%6/13
4
55%6/11
25%2/8
5
55%6/11
45%5/11
6
50%5/10
50%6/12
All
56%38/68
43%29/68

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

188 rallies

#TX ARL-UALRSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
11-0UALRTX ARLKillEvyn Snookset Samantha Glenn+1.7
21-1TX ARLUALRKillPolianna Hernandezset Lily King+1.6
32-1UALRTX ARLBlockedAlyssa Boyteblk Hana Aiana, Evyn Snook+1.7
42-2TX ARLUALR×3KillAlyssa Boyteset Alayna Vaeth+1.7
52-3UALRUALR×3KillAvery Fearnleyset Alayna Vaeth+2.3
62-4UALRUALR×3BlockedHana Aianablk Avery Fearnley+2.2
73-4UALRTX ARL×3KillHana Aianaset Erica Dellesky+1.6
84-4TX ARLTX ARL×3AceUT Arlingtonaced Skyler Perez+2.4
95-4TX ARLTX ARL×3Attack errAvery Fearnley+2.6
105-5TX ARLUALRAttack errCamryn Mcminnset Erica Dellesky+1.8
115-6UALRUALRKillAvery Fearnleyset Alayna Vaeth+2.5
126-6UALRTX ARLServe errLittle Rock+1.8
136-7TX ARLUALR×4KillAvery Fearnleyset Alayna Vaeth+1.8
146-8UALRUALR×4KillLorena Keseljset Alayna Vaeth+2.5
156-9UALRUALR×4AceLittle Rockaced Evyn Snook+2.3
166-10UALRUALR×4KillPolianna Hernandezset Lily King+2.0
177-10UALRTX ARLKillCamryn Mcminnset Erica Dellesky+1.3
187-11TX ARLUALRKillLorena Keseljset Lily King+1.4
198-11UALRTX ARLServe errLittle Rock+1.3
209-11TX ARLTX ARLAceUT Arlington+2.2
219-12TX ARLUALRKillPolianna Hernandezset Lily King+1.7
229-13UALRUALRKillPolianna Hernandezset Lily King+2.1
2310-13UALRTX ARLKillMazi Smithset Erica Dellesky+1.3
2410-14TX ARLUALRServe errUT Arlington+1.5
2511-14UALRTX ARLKillMazi Smithset Erica Dellesky+1.3
2611-15TX ARLUALRKillAlyssa Boyteset Alayna Vaeth+1.6
2711-16UALRUALRKillAvery Fearnleyset Alayna Vaeth+1.7
2812-16UALRTX ARLBlockedAlyssa Boyteblk Hana Aiana, Evyn Snook+0.9
2913-16TX ARLTX ARLKillCamryn Mcminnset Avery Fearnley+1.8
3013-17TX ARLUALRKillAlyssa Boyteset Alayna Vaeth+1.6
3113-18UALRUALRBlockedHana Aianablk Lorena Keselj+1.7
3214-18UALRTX ARL×3Serve errLittle Rock+0.9
3315-18TX ARLTX ARL×3KillCamryn Mcminnset Erica Dellesky+1.8
3416-18TX ARLTX ARL×3KillCamryn Mcminn+2.5
3516-19TX ARLUALRServe errUT Arlington+2.2
3616-20UALRUALRBlockedLorena Keseljblk Little Rock, Polianna Hernandez+2.4
3717-20UALRTX ARLKillCamryn Mcminnset Erica Dellesky+1.2
3817-21TX ARLUALRAttack errMazi Smithset Samantha Glenn+1.7
3918-21UALRTX ARLKillCamryn Mcminnset Erica Dellesky+1.1
4018-22TX ARLUALRKillPolianna Hernandezset Lily King+1.7
4119-22UALRTX ARLServe errLittle Rock+1.0
4219-23TX ARLUALR×3KillPolianna Hernandezset Lily King+1.6
4319-24UALRUALR×3KillLovina Teelset Skyler Perez+1.0
4419-25UALRUALR×3KillAlyssa Boyte+0.2
Set 2
10-1TX ARLUALRKillPolianna Hernandezset Lily King+1.3
2–31-2TX ARL · UALR
NCAA feed gap2 points not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+0.5
42-2TX ARLTX ARLAceUT Arlingtonaced Avery Fearnley+2.0
52-3TX ARLUALR×5KillPolianna Hernandezset Lily King+1.4
62-4UALRUALR×5KillPolianna Hernandezset Lily King+1.9
72-5UALRUALR×5BlockedKarisa Martinblk Alyssa Boyte, Lovina Teel+1.8
82-6UALRUALR×5KillPolianna Hernandezset Lorena Keselj+1.6
92-7UALRUALR×5AceLittle Rockaced Camryn Mcminn+1.4
103-7UALRTX ARL×4Bad setLily King+0.9
114-7TX ARLTX ARL×4KillEvyn Snookset Erica Dellesky+1.5
125-7TX ARLTX ARL×4AceUT Arlington+1.7
136-7TX ARLTX ARL×4BlockedLovina Teelblk Erica Dellesky, Hana Aiana+2.0
146-8TX ARLUALRKillAlyssa Boyteset Lily King+1.5
157-8UALRTX ARL×3KillEvyn Snookset Erica Dellesky+1.5
168-8TX ARLTX ARL×3BlockedLovina Teelblk Erica Dellesky, Hana Aiana+2.3
179-8TX ARLTX ARL×3AceUT Arlington+2.5
189-9TX ARLUALRKillAlayna Vaethset Skyler Perez+1.7
1910-9UALRTX ARLServe errLittle Rock+1.9
2010-10TX ARLUALRServe errUT Arlington+1.8
2111-10UALRTX ARLServe errLittle Rock+1.9
2211-11TX ARLUALRKillAvery Fearnleyset Alayna Vaeth+1.8
2311-12UALRUALRBlockedMazi Smithblk Avery Fearnley, Lorena Keselj+2.6
2412-12UALRTX ARLKillMazi Smithset Samantha Glenn+1.9
2512-13TX ARLUALRKillAvery Fearnley+1.9
2612-14UALRUALRKillPolianna Hernandezset Lily King+2.6
2713-14UALRTX ARL×4Serve errLittle Rock+1.8
2814-14TX ARLTX ARL×4BlockedPolianna Hernandezblk Hana Aiana, Evyn Snook+2.9
2915-14TX ARLTX ARL×4KillMazi Smithset Erica Dellesky+3.1
3016-14TX ARLTX ARL×4KillHana Aianaset Erica Dellesky+3.3
3116-15TX ARLUALR×3Attack errCamryn Mcminnset Erica Dellesky+2.1
3216-16UALR
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+3.2
3316-17UALRUALR×3Attack errHana Aiana+3.3
3417-17UALRTX ARLKillMazi Smithset Erica Dellesky+2.4
3518-17TX ARLTX ARLKillHana Aianaset Erica Dellesky+3.7
3618-18TX ARLUALRKillAvery Fearnleyset Skyler Perez+2.6
3718-19UALRUALRBlockedEvyn Snookblk Alyssa Boyte, Alayna Vaeth+3.8
3819-19UALRTX ARLKillEvyn Snookset Erica Dellesky+2.7
3919-20TX ARLUALRKillAlyssa Boyteset Alayna Vaeth+2.9
4020-20UALRTX ARLServe errLittle Rock+3.0
4121-20TX ARLTX ARLAceUT Arlingtonaced Avery Fearnley+4.9
4221-21TX ARLUALRKillAlyssa Boyteset Alayna Vaeth+3.3
4322-21UALRTX ARLKillCamryn Mcminnset Erica Dellesky+4.0
4423-21TX ARLTX ARLKillCamryn Mcminnset Erica Dellesky+5.6
4523-22TX ARLUALRKillAvery Fearnleyset Alayna Vaeth+2.8
4623-23UALRUALRAttack errCamryn Mcminn+6.2
4724-23UALRTX ARLServe errLittle Rock+6.0
4824-24TX ARLUALRBlockedMazi Smithblk Lorena Keselj, Avery Fearnley+6.0
4925-24UALRTX ARLAttack errLovina Teelset Lily King+6.0
5025-25TX ARLUALRBall handlingErica Dellesky+6.0
5126-25UALRTX ARLKillEvyn Snookset Erica Dellesky+6.0
5227-25TX ARLTX ARLBlockedPolianna Hernandezblk Hana Aiana, Evyn Snook+8.9
Set 3
11-0UALRTX ARLBall handlingLorena Keselj+2.4
21-1TX ARLUALRKillAvery Fearnleyset Lily King+2.3
31-2UALRUALRAttack errMazi Smith+3.2
42-2UALRTX ARLKillHana Aianaset Erica Dellesky+2.3
52-3TX ARLUALRKillPolianna Hernandezset Lily King+2.3
63-3UALRTX ARLKillEvyn Snookset Samantha Glenn+2.4
74-3TX ARLTX ARLKillCamryn Mcminnset Erica Dellesky+3.5
84-4TX ARLUALRKillPolianna Hernandezset Lily King+2.4
95-4UALRTX ARL×3Attack errBella Cherryset Alayna Vaeth+2.6
106-4TX ARLTX ARL×3BlockedBella Cherryblk Milica Peci, Erica Dellesky+3.7
117-4TX ARLTX ARL×3KillCamryn Mcminnset Erica Dellesky+3.7
127-5TX ARLUALRKillAvery Fearnleyset Alayna Vaeth+2.4
138-5UALRTX ARLKillMilica Peciset Erica Dellesky+2.8
148-6TX ARLUALR×5KillAlyssa Boyteset Alayna Vaeth+2.4
158-7UALRUALR×5BlockedCamryn Mcminnblk Alayna Vaeth, Lorena Keselj+3.7
168-8UALRUALR×5KillAvery Fearnley+3.8
178-9UALRUALR×5BlockedMazi Smithblk Lorena Keselj, Avery Fearnley+3.8
188-10UALRUALR×5KillLorena Keseljset Alayna Vaeth+3.6
199-10UALRTX ARLKillMazi Smithset Erica Dellesky+2.5
209-11TX ARLUALRServe errUT Arlington+2.7
2110-11UALRTX ARLKillEvyn Snookset Erica Dellesky+2.6
2211-11TX ARLTX ARLAttack errAvery Fearnley+4.1
2311-12TX ARLUALRServe errUT Arlington+3.0
2411-13UALRUALRKillPolianna Hernandezset Lily King+4.0
2512-13UALRTX ARLKillHana Aianaset Erica Dellesky+2.8
2613-13TX ARLTX ARLAttack errAvery Fearnley+4.4
2713-14TX ARLUALRKillPolianna Hernandezset Lily King+3.2
2813-15UALRUALRBlockedEvyn Snookblk Alyssa Boyte, Polianna Hernandez+4.4
2914-15UALRTX ARLKillEvyn Snookset Hana Aiana+3.0
3014-16TX ARLUALRServe errUT Arlington+3.2
3115-16UALRTX ARLKillHana Aiana+3.1
3215-17TX ARLUALRKillAlyssa Boyteset Alayna Vaeth+3.4
3316-17UALRTX ARLAttack errAlyssa Boyteset Alayna Vaeth+3.2
3416-18TX ARLUALR×3KillAvery Fearnleyset Alayna Vaeth+3.6
3516-19UALRUALR×3KillLorena Keselj+4.4
3616-20UALRUALR×3Attack errMazi Smith+3.3
3717-20UALRTX ARLServe errLittle Rock+1.7
3818-20TX ARLTX ARLAttack errPolianna Hernandez+3.5
3918-21TX ARLUALRServe errUT Arlington+3.4
4019-21UALRTX ARL×3KillDixie Nesslset Erica Dellesky+2.5
4120-21TX ARLTX ARL×3KillHana Aianaset Erica Dellesky+5.3
4221-21TX ARLTX ARL×3Attack errAvery Fearnley+7.3
4321-22TX ARLUALRKillPolianna Hernandezset Lily King+6.0
4422-22UALRTX ARLKillHana Aiana+6.0
4523-22TX ARLTX ARLKillHana Aianaset Erica Dellesky+10.6
4623-23TX ARLUALRKillLorena Keseljset Lily King+7.1
4724-23UALRTX ARLKillHana Aianaset Erica Dellesky+9.7
4825-23TX ARLTX ARLAttack errAlyssa Boyte+14.5
Set 4
10-1TX ARLUALRServe errUT Arlington+2.6
21-1UALRTX ARLKillEvyn Snookset Erica Dellesky+2.7
31-2TX ARLUALRKillPolianna Hernandezset Lily King+2.7
42-2UALRTX ARLKillEvyn Snookset Erica Dellesky+2.7
52-3TX ARLUALRKillPolianna Hernandezset Alyssa Boyte+2.7
63-3UALRTX ARLBlockedAlayna Vaethblk Hana Aiana+2.8
73-4TX ARLUALRAttack errHana Aianaset Erica Dellesky+2.8
84-4UALRTX ARL×6KillCamryn Mcminnset Erica Dellesky+2.9
95-4TX ARLTX ARL×6AceUT Arlingtonaced Skyler Perez+4.3
106-4TX ARLTX ARL×6AceUT Arlingtonaced Victoria Fontenot+4.4
117-4TX ARLTX ARL×6BlockedAvery Fearnleyblk Erica Dellesky, Dixie Nessl+4.4
128-4TX ARLTX ARL×6KillCamryn Mcminnset Erica Dellesky+4.3
139-4TX ARLTX ARL×6AceUT Arlingtonaced Skyler Perez+3.9
149-5TX ARLUALRKillAlyssa Boyteset Alayna Vaeth+2.3
1510-5UALRTX ARL×3KillDixie Nesslset Erica Dellesky+2.9
1611-5TX ARLTX ARL×3BlockedAvery Fearnleyblk Dixie Nessl, Mazi Smith+3.4
1712-5TX ARLTX ARL×3AceUT Arlingtonaced Avery Fearnley+2.8
1812-6TX ARLUALR×3KillAvery Fearnleyset Alayna Vaeth+1.5
1912-7UALRUALR×3KillPolianna Hernandezset Lily King+2.6
2012-8UALRUALR×3KillAvery Fearnleyset Lily King+3.2
2113-8UALRTX ARL×3KillCamryn Mcminnset Erica Dellesky+3.0
2214-8TX ARLTX ARL×3Attack errPolianna Hernandez+3.4
2315-8TX ARLTX ARL×3Attack errAvery Fearnley+2.7
2415-9TX ARLUALR×4KillLorena Keseljset Lily King+1.3
2515-10UALRUALR×4KillLorena Keselj+2.4
2615-11UALRUALR×4AceLittle Rockaced Samantha Glenn+3.2
2715-12UALRUALR×4KillLily King+4.0
2816-12UALRTX ARL×4Serve errLittle Rock+3.6
2917-12TX ARLTX ARL×4KillHana Aianaset Erica Dellesky+4.2
3018-12TX ARLTX ARL×4Attack errPolianna Hernandez+3.2
3119-12TX ARLTX ARL×4KillEvyn Snookset Camryn Mcminn+2.1
3219-13TX ARLUALR×3KillAvery Fearnley+0.8
3319-14UALRUALR×3BlockedHana Aianablk Alyssa Boyte+1.8
3419-15UALRUALR×3Attack errEvyn Snook+2.7
3520-15UALRTX ARLKillMazi Smithset Erica Dellesky+2.9
3620-16TX ARLUALRKillAlyssa Boyteset Lily King+1.7
3721-16UALRTX ARLKillEvyn Snookset Erica Dellesky+2.8
3822-16TX ARLTX ARLAttack errAlyssa Boyte+2.3
3922-17TX ARLUALRKillLovina Teel+0.7
4022-18UALRUALRAttack errHana Aiana+1.7
4123-18UALRTX ARLKillHana Aianaset Camryn Mcminn+2.3
4223-19TX ARLUALRKillAlyssa Boyteset Alayna Vaeth+0.8
4324-19UALRTX ARLKillCamryn Mcminnset Erica Dellesky+1.8
4425-19TX ARLTX ARLKillCamryn Mcminnset Erica Dellesky+0.6

Score shown after each rally, UT Arlington first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).