FinalFri, Sep 11, 2026

AwayCAA

0:3

HomeSUN-BELT

App State def. William & Mary 3–0

(25-18, 25-16, 25-19)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
WM&MRY	18	16	19	0
APP ST	25	25	25	3

RallyIQ model

Win probability

APP ST above 50 · WM&MRY below

Biggest swing: 2.3% to William & Mary — set 1, WM&MRY 9-6 APP ST. Kill by Emily McKee. APP ST win probability 79% → 77%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

WM&MRY 16.0%84.0% APP ST

William & Mary wins

3-0

2.4%

3-1

5.2%

3-2

8.4%

App State wins

3-0

35.8%

3-1

31.1%

3-2

17.0%

WM&MRY break %: 38.4% vs this opp
APP ST break %: 45.9% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Emily McKeeKill+2.3%
Kill by Emily McKee
Set 1 · WM&MRY 9-6 APP ST · WM&MRY 21% → 23%
02
WM&MRY serverAce+2.1%
William & Mary ace on Team
Set 1 · WM&MRY 8-6 APP ST · WM&MRY 19% → 21%
03
Olivia WestfortAttack error+2.0%
Olivia Westfort stuffed by Bella Hutchens & Nevaeh Hays
Set 1 · WM&MRY 9-8 APP ST · APP ST 78% → 80%
04
Nevaeh HaysKill+2.0%
Kill by Nevaeh Hays
Set 1 · WM&MRY 9-9 APP ST · APP ST 80% → 82%
05
Audrey BrckaAttack error+2.0%
Attack error by Audrey Brcka
Set 1 · WM&MRY 10-11 APP ST · APP ST 82% → 84%
06
Emily McKeeKill+2.0%
Kill by Emily McKee (set by Cate Hatfield)
Set 1 · WM&MRY 7-6 APP ST · WM&MRY 17% → 19%
07
Audrey BrckaAttack error+1.8%
Audrey Brcka stuffed by Nevaeh Hays & Delanie Grevengoed
Set 1 · WM&MRY 10-12 APP ST · APP ST 84% → 86%
08
Bella HutchensAttack error+1.6%
Attack error by Bella Hutchens
Set 1 · WM&MRY 1-0 APP ST · WM&MRY 16% → 18%

Official NCAA box

Box score

William & Maryaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BLK	PTS
10Audrey BrckaOH	3	9	7	31	.065	0	0	1	2	0	1	1	10
22Olivia WestfortMB	3	9	1	13	.615	0	0	2	0	0	1	1	10
23Katherine ArnasonOH	3	3	3	14	.000	0	1	1	8	2	0	0	4
12Teagan PociusMB	3	2	3	11	-.091	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	3
4Cate HatfieldS	3	1	1	3	.000	28	0	0	5	0	0	0	1
16Emily McKeeOH	2	5	2	11	.273	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	5
9Ava CrabtreeOH	3	1	2	5	-.200	0	0	4	2	0	0	0	1
11Avery HorejsiL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	2	0	3	15	3	0	0	0
6Sophia Van NameOH	2	2	2	7	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2
14Maya De Los ReyesL/DS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2Regan HillOPP	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		32	21	95	.116	30	1	11	36	8	3	3	53

App Statehome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
10Bella HutchensOH	3	9	7	30	.067	0	1	2	6	0	0	4	2	12
20Nevaeh HaysMB	3	6	1	14	.357	0	0	0	0	0	2	3	3.5	9.5
23Delanie GrevengoedOH	3	8	1	16	.438	0	0	0	5	0	0	2	1	9
8Chelsea GilmoreMB	3	4	2	9	.222	0	0	0	1	0	0	4	2	6
2Brooke DohertyOH	3	5	2	13	.231	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	5.5
18Raegan RichardsonS	3	1	1	3	.000	25	4	0	5	0	0	0	0	5
14Amelia MancinoOH	3	1	0	2	.500	1	2	1	4	0	0	0	0	3
4MeMe DavisL/DS	3	1	0	2	.500	3	1	1	9	0	0	0	0	2
24Iris WilliamsL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
5Caroline FarthingL/DS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	0
6Bella DaffornL/DS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0
0Charlotte ThompsonOH	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		35	14	89	.236	29	8	4	36	1	2	14	9	75

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 5 WM&MRY · APP ST 7

Set 1

18-25

Longest run 4 WM&MRYAPP ST 5

Set 2

16-25

Longest run 2 WM&MRYAPP ST 7

Set 3

19-25

Longest run 5 WM&MRYAPP ST 7

Bars above the line = App State leads, below = William & Mary leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

William & Mary

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	33%7/21	33%3/9
2	46%6/13	13%1/8
3	86%6/7	14%1/7
4	55%6/11	50%6/12
5	75%6/8	40%4/10
6	31%4/13	33%3/9
All	48%35/73	33%18/55

App State

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	64%7/11	76%16/21
2	100%6/6	50%6/12
3	75%6/8	54%7/13
4	50%6/12	33%3/9
5	67%6/9	40%4/10
6	67%6/9	25%2/8
All	67%37/55	52%38/73

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

128 rallies

Rally log

#	WM&MRY-APP ST	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	WM&MRY	WM&MRY	Attack err	Bella Hutchens		+1.6
2	1-1	WM&MRY	APP ST	Kill	Delanie Grevengoed	set Raegan Richardson	+1.1
3	2-1	APP ST	WM&MRY	Serve err	APP ST server		+1.3
4	2-2	WM&MRY	APP ST	Kill	Delanie Grevengoed	set Raegan Richardson	+1.1
5	2-3	APP ST	APP ST	Attack err	Teagan Pocius	blk Brooke Doherty, Chelsea Gilmore	+1.5
6	3-3	APP ST	WM&MRY	Kill	Audrey Brcka	set Cate Hatfield	+1.2
7	3-4	WM&MRY	APP ST	Kill	Delanie Grevengoed	set Raegan Richardson	+1.1
8	4-4	APP ST	WM&MRY	Bad set	MeMe Davis		+1.2
9	4-5	WM&MRY	APP ST	Kill	Brooke Doherty	set Raegan Richardson	+1.1
10	5-5	APP ST	WM&MRY	Kill	Katherine Arnason	set Avery Horejsi	+1.2
11	5-6	WM&MRY	APP ST	Attack err	Katherine Arnason	blk Bella Hutchens, Chelsea Gilmore	+1.2
12	6-6	APP ST	WM&MRY×4	Kill	Olivia Westfort	set Cate Hatfield	+1.3
13	7-6	WM&MRY	WM&MRY×4	Kill	Emily McKee	set Cate Hatfield	+2.0
14	8-6	WM&MRY	WM&MRY×4	Ace	WM&MRY server	aced Team	+2.1
15	9-6	WM&MRY	WM&MRY×4	Kill	Emily McKee		+2.3
16	9-7	WM&MRY	APP ST×3	Kill	Bella Hutchens	set MeMe Davis	+1.4
17	9-8	APP ST	APP ST×3	Attack err	Olivia Westfort	blk Bella Hutchens, Nevaeh Hays	+2.0
18	9-9	APP ST	APP ST×3	Kill	Nevaeh Hays		+2.0
19	10-9	APP ST	WM&MRY	Attack err	Bella Hutchens		+1.6
20	10-10	WM&MRY	APP ST×5	Kill	Delanie Grevengoed	set Raegan Richardson	+1.5
21	10-11	APP ST	APP ST×5	Attack err	Audrey Brcka		+2.0
22	10-12	APP ST	APP ST×5	Attack err	Audrey Brcka	blk Nevaeh Hays, Delanie Grevengoed	+1.8
23	10-13	APP ST	APP ST×5	Ace	APP ST server	aced Avery Horejsi	+1.6
24	10-14	APP ST	APP ST×5	Kill	Brooke Doherty		+1.3
25	11-14	APP ST	WM&MRY	Kill	Olivia Westfort	set Cate Hatfield	+0.8
26	11-15	WM&MRY	APP ST×5	Serve err	WM&MRY server		+0.9
27	11-16	APP ST	APP ST×5	Attack err	Audrey Brcka		+1.0
28	11-17	APP ST	APP ST×5	Kill	Brooke Doherty	set MeMe Davis	+0.7
29	11-18	APP ST	APP ST×5	Attack err	Teagan Pocius		+0.4
30	11-19	APP ST	APP ST×5	Ace	APP ST server	aced Katherine Arnason	+0.2
31	12-19	APP ST	WM&MRY	Kill	Teagan Pocius	set Cate Hatfield	+0.1
32	12-20	WM&MRY	APP ST	Kill	Chelsea Gilmore	set Raegan Richardson	+0.1
33	13-20	APP ST	WM&MRY	Kill	Audrey Brcka	set Cate Hatfield	+0.1
34	14-20	WM&MRY	WM&MRY	Attack err	Bella Hutchens	blk Teagan Pocius	+0.2
35	14-21	WM&MRY	APP ST×3	Kill	Chelsea Gilmore	set Raegan Richardson	+0.2
36	14-22	APP ST	APP ST×3	Kill	Bella Hutchens	set Raegan Richardson	+0.1
37	14-23	APP ST	APP ST×3	Attack err	Katherine Arnason	blk Chelsea Gilmore, Bella Hutchens	+0.0
38	15-23	APP ST	WM&MRY×3	Serve err	APP ST server		+0.0
39	16-23	WM&MRY	WM&MRY×3	Attack err	Bella Hutchens		+0.0
40	17-23	WM&MRY	WM&MRY×3	Kill	Olivia Westfort	set Cate Hatfield	+0.1
41	17-24	WM&MRY	APP ST	Serve err	WM&MRY server		+0.1
42	18-24	APP ST	WM&MRY	Kill	Cate Hatfield		+0.0
43	18-25	WM&MRY	APP ST	Kill	Bella Hutchens	set Raegan Richardson	+0.0
Set 2
1	0-1	APP ST	APP ST	Attack err	Audrey Brcka		+1.0
2	1-1	APP ST	WM&MRY	Kill	Teagan Pocius	set Cate Hatfield	+0.8
3	1-2	WM&MRY	APP ST	Serve err	WM&MRY server		+0.8
4	2-2	APP ST	WM&MRY	Kill	Katherine Arnason	set Cate Hatfield	+0.8
5	2-3	WM&MRY	APP ST	Serve err	WM&MRY server		+0.8
6	3-3	APP ST	WM&MRY	Kill	Emily McKee	set Cate Hatfield	+0.8
7	3-4	WM&MRY	APP ST	Kill	Chelsea Gilmore	set Raegan Richardson	+0.8
8	4-4	APP ST	WM&MRY	Kill	Emily McKee	set Cate Hatfield	+0.9
9	5-4	WM&MRY	WM&MRY	Kill	Olivia Westfort	set Cate Hatfield	+1.3
10	5-5	WM&MRY	APP ST	Attack err	Katherine Arnason		+0.9
11	6-5	APP ST	WM&MRY	Kill	Audrey Brcka	set Cate Hatfield	+1.0
12	6-6	WM&MRY	APP ST	Kill	Amelia Mancino	set Raegan Richardson	+0.9
13	7-6	APP ST	WM&MRY	Kill	Audrey Brcka	set Cate Hatfield	+1.1
14	7-7	WM&MRY	APP ST	Kill	Nevaeh Hays	set Raegan Richardson	+1.0
15	7-8	APP ST	APP ST	Ace	APP ST server	aced Avery Horejsi	+1.3
16	8-8	APP ST	WM&MRY	Kill	Audrey Brcka	set Cate Hatfield	+1.0
17	8-9	WM&MRY	APP ST	Serve err	WM&MRY server		+0.9
18	9-9	APP ST	WM&MRY	Kill	Katherine Arnason	set Avery Horejsi	+1.0
19	9-10	WM&MRY	APP ST	Kill	Nevaeh Hays	set Raegan Richardson	+1.0
20	10-10	APP ST	WM&MRY	Kill	Emily McKee	set Cate Hatfield	+1.1
21	11-10	WM&MRY	WM&MRY	Attack err	Brooke Doherty		+1.6
22	11-11	WM&MRY	APP ST×3	Kill	Chelsea Gilmore	set Raegan Richardson	+1.1
23	11-12	APP ST	APP ST×3	Attack err	Emily McKee		+1.5
24	11-13	APP ST	APP ST×3	Attack err	Cate Hatfield		+1.4
25	12-13	APP ST	WM&MRY	Attack err	Brooke Doherty		+1.0
26	12-14	WM&MRY	APP ST	Kill	Brooke Doherty	set Raegan Richardson	+1.0
27	12-15	APP ST	APP ST	Ace	APP ST server	aced Team	+1.2
28	13-15	APP ST	WM&MRY	Kill	Audrey Brcka	set Cate Hatfield	+0.8
29	13-16	WM&MRY	APP ST	Kill	Bella Hutchens	set MeMe Davis	+0.9
30	13-17	APP ST	APP ST	Attack err	Audrey Brcka		+1.0
31	14-17	APP ST	WM&MRY	Attack err	Nevaeh Hays	blk Audrey Brcka	+0.6
32	14-18	WM&MRY	APP ST×7	Kill	Nevaeh Hays	set Raegan Richardson	+0.7
33	14-19	APP ST	APP ST×7	Kill	Bella Hutchens		+0.7
34	14-20	APP ST	APP ST×7	Attack err	Sophia Van Name	blk Nevaeh Hays	+0.4
35	14-21	APP ST	APP ST×7	Kill	Bella Hutchens	set Amelia Mancino	+0.2
36	14-22	APP ST	APP ST×7	Kill	MeMe Davis	set Avery Horejsi	+0.1
37	14-23	APP ST	APP ST×7	Kill	Bella Hutchens	set Raegan Richardson	+0.0
38	14-24	APP ST	APP ST×7	Ace	APP ST server	aced Team	+0.0
39	15-24	APP ST	WM&MRY	Kill	Audrey Brcka	set Cate Hatfield	+0.0
40	16-24	WM&MRY	WM&MRY	Attack err	Bella Hutchens		+0.0
41	16-25	WM&MRY	APP ST	Attack err	Emily McKee	blk Nevaeh Hays, Bella Hutchens	+0.0
Set 3
1	0-1	WM&MRY	APP ST	Kill	Nevaeh Hays	set Raegan Richardson	+0.4
2	0-2	APP ST	APP ST	Attack err	Teagan Pocius		+0.5
3	1-2	APP ST	WM&MRY	Attack err	Delanie Grevengoed		+0.4
4	1-3	WM&MRY	APP ST×3	Serve err	WM&MRY server		+0.4
5	1-4	APP ST	APP ST×3	Attack err	Ava Crabtree	blk Delanie Grevengoed, Chelsea Gilmore	+0.4
6	1-5	APP ST	APP ST×3	Attack err	Sophia Van Name		+0.4
7	2-5	APP ST	WM&MRY	Kill	Sophia Van Name	set Cate Hatfield	+0.3
8	2-6	WM&MRY	APP ST	Serve err	WM&MRY server		+0.3
9	3-6	APP ST	WM&MRY×5	Kill	Sophia Van Name	set Cate Hatfield	+0.3
10	4-6	WM&MRY	WM&MRY×5	Kill	Olivia Westfort	set Cate Hatfield	+0.4
11	5-6	WM&MRY	WM&MRY×5	Kill	Olivia Westfort	set Cate Hatfield	+0.5
12	6-6	WM&MRY	WM&MRY×5	Attack err	Raegan Richardson		+0.6
13	7-6	WM&MRY	WM&MRY×5	Attack err	Chelsea Gilmore		+0.7
14	7-7	WM&MRY	APP ST	Kill	Brooke Doherty	set Raegan Richardson	+0.5
15	8-7	APP ST	WM&MRY	Kill	Ava Crabtree	set Cate Hatfield	+0.6
16	8-8	WM&MRY	APP ST	Serve err	WM&MRY server		+0.5
17	8-9	APP ST	APP ST	Attack err	Audrey Brcka	blk Nevaeh Hays	+0.7
18	9-9	APP ST	WM&MRY	Kill	Olivia Westfort	set Cate Hatfield	+0.5
19	9-10	WM&MRY	APP ST	Serve err	WM&MRY server		+0.5
20	10-10	APP ST	WM&MRY×3	Kill	Audrey Brcka	set Cate Hatfield	+0.5
21	11-10	WM&MRY	WM&MRY×3	Attack err	Bella Hutchens		+0.8
22	12-10	WM&MRY	WM&MRY×3	Bad set	MeMe Davis		+0.9
23	12-11	WM&MRY	APP ST	Kill	Raegan Richardson		+0.6
24	12-12	APP ST	APP ST	Attack err	Audrey Brcka		+0.8
25	13-12	APP ST	WM&MRY	Serve err	APP ST server		+0.7
26	13-13	WM&MRY	APP ST	Kill	Delanie Grevengoed	set Raegan Richardson	+0.6
27	14-13	APP ST	WM&MRY	Serve err	APP ST server		+0.7
28	15-13	WM&MRY	WM&MRY	Attack err	Chelsea Gilmore	blk Olivia Westfort	+1.0
29	15-14	WM&MRY	APP ST	Kill	Delanie Grevengoed	set Raegan Richardson	+0.7
30	15-15	APP ST	APP ST	Attack err	Ava Crabtree		+1.0
31	16-15	APP ST	WM&MRY	Kill	Olivia Westfort	set Cate Hatfield	+0.8
32	16-16	WM&MRY	APP ST	Serve err	WM&MRY server		+0.7
33	16-17	APP ST	APP ST	Ace	APP ST server	aced Avery Horejsi	+1.0
34	17-17	APP ST	WM&MRY	Attack err	Bella Hutchens		+0.8
35	18-17	WM&MRY	WM&MRY	Kill	Audrey Brcka	set Cate Hatfield	+1.2
36	18-18	WM&MRY	APP ST	Serve err	WM&MRY server		+0.8
37	19-18	APP ST	WM&MRY	Kill	Olivia Westfort	set Cate Hatfield	+1.0
38	19-19	WM&MRY	APP ST×7	Kill	Nevaeh Hays	set Raegan Richardson	+0.9
39	19-20	APP ST	APP ST×7	Ace	APP ST server	aced Team	+1.3
40	19-21	APP ST	APP ST×7	Kill	Bella Hutchens	set Raegan Richardson	+1.1
41	19-22	APP ST	APP ST×7	Kill	Bella Hutchens	set Raegan Richardson	+0.8
42	19-23	APP ST	APP ST×7	Kill	Delanie Grevengoed		+0.5
43	19-24	APP ST	APP ST×7	Ace	APP ST server	aced Katherine Arnason	+0.2
44	19-25	APP ST	APP ST×7	Kill	Delanie Grevengoed	set Raegan Richardson	+0.0

Score shown after each rally, William & Mary first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.