Final · 4 setsSun, Sep 13, 2026 · Neutral site

William & Mary def. North Florida 3–1

William & Mary beat North Florida 3-1 (22-25, 28-26, 25-20, 25-22) on Sun, Sep 13, 2026 at a neutral site. William & Mary's Audrey Brcka led with 24 kills, and Cate Hatfield added 17 digs.

Data through · final Sep 13

Set1234Sets
NO FLA252620221
WM&MRY222825253

Win probability

William & Mary above 50 · North Florida below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100+9.6% WM&MRYrally 193 · set 4

Biggest swing: 9.6% to William & Mary — set 4, NO FLA 22-24 WM&MRY. Kill by Audrey Brcka (set by Cate Hatfield). WM&MRY win probability 83% → 92%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

NO FLA 68.2%31.8% WM&MRY

North Florida wins

3-0
22.0%
3-1
26.2%
3-2
20.0%

William & Mary wins

3-0
6.2%
3-1
11.2%
3-2
14.3%
NO FLA break %
44.2% vs this opp
WM&MRY break %
40.6% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Audrey BrckaKill+9.6%

    Kill by Audrey Brcka (set by Cate Hatfield)

    Set 4 · NO FLA 22-24 WM&MRY · WM&MRY 83% → 92%

  2. 02
    Dakota SpurrierAttack error+8.7%

    Attack error by Dakota Spurrier

    Set 2 · NO FLA 26-28 WM&MRY · WM&MRY 27% → 36%

  3. 03
    Audrey BrckaKill+8.7%

    Kill by Audrey Brcka (set by Emily McKee)

    Set 4 · NO FLA 19-21 WM&MRY · WM&MRY 75% → 84%

  4. 04
    Audrey BrckaKill+8.0%

    Kill by Audrey Brcka (set by Cate Hatfield)

    Set 2 · NO FLA 26-27 WM&MRY · WM&MRY 19% → 27%

  5. 05
    North FloridaAce+7.7%

    North Florida ace on Emily McKee

    Set 4 · NO FLA 22-23 WM&MRY · NO FLA 10% → 17%

  6. 06

    Kill by Katherine Arnason (set by Cate Hatfield)

    Set 4 · NO FLA 22-25 WM&MRY · WM&MRY 92% → 100%

  7. 07
    Audrey BrckaKill+7.6%

    Kill by Audrey Brcka (set by Katherine Arnason)

    Set 4 · NO FLA 19-22 WM&MRY · WM&MRY 84% → 91%

  8. 08
    Audrey BrckaAttack error+7.5%

    Attack error by Audrey Brcka

    Set 4 · NO FLA 19-19 WM&MRY · NO FLA 24% → 31%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
414646.1741228002117
4151046.10900121010.515.5
412229.34500212104214
48211.5450002006311
4005.0004200300000
3126-.167000000001
4000–033200003
4000–0011410000
3000–000200000
1004.00000000010.50.5
1002.000000000000
1000–100200000
Team totals5022149.1884459475014793
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
424543.4420003000024
414337.29720013002115
47319.21110120334.511.5
46419.10500010212.58.5
4305.6004501170111.54.5
36618.00010152010.56.5
4057-.714024510002
4002.000020300002
4000–7011100000
3112.000000100001
2000–010010001
1001.000000000000
Team totals6127153.22256586156810100

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 5 NO FLA · WM&MRY 4

Set 1

25-22

Longest run 5 NO FLAWM&MRY 3

Set 2

26-28

Longest run 3 NO FLAWM&MRY 3

Set 3

20-25

Longest run 4 NO FLAWM&MRY 4

Set 4

22-25

Longest run 5 NO FLAWM&MRY 4

Bars above the line = William & Mary leads, below = North Florida leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

North Florida

SlotSideout %Break %
1
57%8/14
14%1/7
2
44%7/16
50%8/16
3
58%7/12
61%11/18
4
67%6/9
14%1/7
5
55%6/11
33%3/9
6
50%5/10
40%4/10
All
54%39/72
42%28/67

William & Mary

SlotSideout %Break %
1
57%8/14
46%6/13
2
44%7/16
50%7/14
3
55%6/11
46%6/13
4
100%6/6
25%2/8
5
55%6/11
45%5/11
6
67%6/9
54%7/13
All
58%39/67
46%33/72

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

193 rallies

#NO FLA-WM&MRYSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
11-0WM&MRYNO FLAKillKaili Doctorset Sofia Dawson+1.6
22-0NO FLANO FLAKillKaili Doctorset Sofia Dawson+2.1
32-1NO FLAWM&MRYAttack errDakota Spurrier+1.5
42-2WM&MRYWM&MRYAceWilliam & Mary+2.3
53-2WM&MRYNO FLAServe errWilliam & Mary+1.7
63-3NO FLAWM&MRYKillKatherine Arnasonset Cate Hatfield+1.7
74-3WM&MRYNO FLAKillLeah McDonaldset Sofia Dawson+1.7
84-4NO FLAWM&MRYBad setEmma Pohlmann+1.8
95-4WM&MRYNO FLAKillDakota Spurrierset Sofia Dawson+1.7
105-5NO FLAWM&MRYKillOlivia Westfortset Cate Hatfield+1.8
116-5WM&MRYNO FLAKillDakota Spurrierset Sofia Dawson+1.8
127-5NO FLANO FLAKillHaleina Bowersset Cate Hatfield+2.3
137-6NO FLAWM&MRY×3KillKatherine Arnasonset Cate Hatfield+1.7
147-7WM&MRYWM&MRY×3Bad setSofia Dawson+2.6
157-8WM&MRYWM&MRY×3BlockedHaleina Bowersblk Teagan Pocius+2.8
168-8WM&MRYNO FLAKillDakota Spurrierset Sofia Dawson+2.0
178-9NO FLAWM&MRYKillAudrey Brckaset Cate Hatfield+2.1
188-10WM&MRYWM&MRYKillAudrey Brckaset Cate Hatfield+3.0
199-10WM&MRYNO FLA×5Serve errWilliam & Mary+2.0
2010-10NO FLANO FLA×5KillKaili Doctorset Sofia Dawson+2.9
2111-10NO FLANO FLA×5AceNorth Floridaaced Emily McKee+2.9
2212-10NO FLANO FLA×5Attack errTeagan Pocius+2.7
2313-10NO FLANO FLA×5KillKaili Doctorset Sofia Dawson+2.5
2413-11NO FLAWM&MRY×3KillKatherine Arnasonset Avery Horejsi+1.7
2513-12WM&MRYWM&MRY×3BlockedKaili Doctorblk Teagan Pocius+2.7
2613-13WM&MRYWM&MRY×3Attack errKaili Doctor+3.1
2714-13WM&MRYNO FLA×3KillKaili Doctorset Sofia Dawson+2.4
2815-13NO FLANO FLA×3BlockedEmily McKeeblk Leah McDonald, Yarimar Francis Garay+3.1
2916-13NO FLANO FLA×3BlockedEmily McKeeblk Leah McDonald, Yarimar Francis Garay+2.7
3016-14NO FLAWM&MRYKillTeagan Pociusset Cate Hatfield+1.8
3116-15WM&MRYWM&MRYKillKatherine Arnasonset Avery Horejsi+3.0
3217-15WM&MRYNO FLAServe errWilliam & Mary+2.5
3317-16NO FLAWM&MRYKillOlivia Westfortset Cate Hatfield+2.3
3418-16WM&MRYNO FLAKillLeah McDonaldset Sofia Dawson+2.6
3518-17NO FLAWM&MRYKillEmily McKeeset Cate Hatfield+2.4
3618-18WM&MRYWM&MRYKillOlivia Westfortset Cate Hatfield+4.1
3719-18WM&MRYNO FLAKillLeah McDonaldset Sofia Dawson+3.2
3820-18NO FLANO FLAAttack errOlivia Westfort+4.1
3920-19NO FLAWM&MRYBlockedHaleina Bowersblk Cate Hatfield+2.7
4021-19WM&MRYNO FLAKillDakota Spurrierset Sofia Dawson+3.2
4121-20NO FLAWM&MRYKillAudrey Brckaset Cate Hatfield+2.8
4222-20WM&MRYNO FLAKillKaili Doctorset Sofia Dawson+3.6
4323-20NO FLANO FLAAceNorth Floridaaced Maya De Los Reyes+3.7
4423-21NO FLAWM&MRYServe errNorth Florida+1.5
4524-21WM&MRYNO FLAServe errWilliam & Mary+2.7
4624-22NO FLAWM&MRYKillTeagan Pociusset Cate Hatfield+1.1
4725-22WM&MRYNO FLAAttack errEmily McKee+2.4
Set 2
10-1NO FLAWM&MRYKillKatherine Arnasonset Cate Hatfield+1.4
20-2WM&MRYWM&MRYAceWilliam & Maryaced Leah McDonald+2.0
31-2WM&MRYNO FLAKillKaili Doctorset Sofia Dawson+1.4
41-3NO FLAWM&MRY×3Serve errNorth Florida+1.5
51-4WM&MRYWM&MRY×3KillKatherine Arnasonset Olivia Westfort+2.1
61-5WM&MRYWM&MRY×3BlockedYarimar Francis Garayblk Olivia Westfort+2.0
72-5WM&MRYNO FLAKillYarimar Francis Garayset Sofia Dawson+1.3
82-6NO FLAWM&MRYKillKatherine Arnasonset Cate Hatfield+1.5
93-6WM&MRYNO FLAKillYarimar Francis Garayset Sofia Dawson+1.3
104-6NO FLANO FLAKillKaili Doctorset Sofia Dawson+2.0
114-7NO FLAWM&MRYServe errNorth Florida+1.7
124-8WM&MRYWM&MRYAceWilliam & Maryaced Emma Pohlmann+2.2
135-8WM&MRYNO FLAKillDakota Spurrierset Sofia Dawson+1.4
145-9NO FLAWM&MRYKillCate Hatfield+1.6
156-9WM&MRYNO FLAKillDakota Spurrierset Sofia Dawson+1.4
167-9NO FLANO FLAAttack errAudrey Brcka+2.1
177-10NO FLAWM&MRYKillTeagan Pociusset Cate Hatfield+1.8
187-11WM&MRYWM&MRYKillKatherine Arnasonset Avery Horejsi+2.3
198-11WM&MRYNO FLAKillDakota Spurrierset Sofia Dawson+1.4
208-12NO FLAWM&MRYKillAudrey Brckaset Cate Hatfield+1.7
219-12WM&MRYNO FLAKillKaili Doctorset Sofia Dawson+1.4
229-13NO FLAWM&MRYKillTeagan Pociusset Cate Hatfield+1.8
239-14WM&MRYWM&MRYAceWilliam & Maryaced Dakota Spurrier+2.1
2410-14WM&MRYNO FLAKillYarimar Francis Garayset Sofia Dawson+1.2
2511-14NO FLANO FLAAttack errAva Crabtree+2.0
2611-15NO FLAWM&MRYKillKatherine Arnasonset Cate Hatfield+1.9
2712-15WM&MRYNO FLA×3BlockedAva Crabtreeblk Kaili Doctor, Yarimar Francis Garay+1.5
2813-15NO FLA
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+2.4
2914-15NO FLANO FLA×3KillDakota Spurrierset Sofia Dawson+2.7
3014-16NO FLAWM&MRYAttack errDakota Spurrier+2.3
3114-17WM&MRYWM&MRYBlockedKaili Doctorblk Olivia Westfort+3.0
3215-17WM&MRYNO FLA×3Attack errOlivia Westfort+1.8
3316-17NO FLANO FLA×3KillLeah McDonaldset Sofia Dawson+3.0
3417-17NO FLANO FLA×3KillDakota Spurrierset Sofia Dawson+3.3
3517-18NO FLAWM&MRYKillAudrey Brckaset Cate Hatfield+2.7
3618-18WM&MRYNO FLAAttack errTeagan Pocius+2.5
3718-19NO FLAWM&MRYAttack errDakota Spurrier+2.9
3818-20WM&MRYWM&MRYKillTeagan Pociusset Cate Hatfield+4.0
3919-20WM&MRYNO FLAAttack errTeagan Pocius+2.5
4019-21NO FLAWM&MRYKillAudrey Brckaset Cate Hatfield+3.2
4120-21WM&MRYNO FLABad setAvery Horejsi+2.6
4220-22NO FLAWM&MRYBad setSofia Dawson+3.6
4321-22WM&MRYNO FLAAttack errAva Crabtree+2.7
4422-22NO FLANO FLABlockedAva Crabtreeblk Leah McDonald, Yarimar Francis Garay+5.1
4522-23NO FLAWM&MRYKillKatherine Arnasonset Cate Hatfield+4.7
4623-23WM&MRYNO FLAKillLeah McDonaldset Sofia Dawson+4.4
4724-23NO FLANO FLAAttack errAva Crabtree+7.5
4824-24NO FLAWM&MRYKillOlivia Westfortset Cate Hatfield+5.5
4925-24WM&MRYNO FLAKillLeah McDonaldset Sofia Dawson+5.5
5025-25NO FLAWM&MRYServe errNorth Florida+5.5
5126-25WM&MRYNO FLAKillDakota Spurrierset Sofia Dawson+5.5
5226-26NO FLAWM&MRY×3Attack errDakota Spurrier+5.5
5326-27WM&MRYWM&MRY×3KillAudrey Brckaset Cate Hatfield+8.0
5426-28WM&MRYWM&MRY×3Attack errDakota Spurrier+8.7
Set 3
10-1WM&MRYWM&MRYKillAudrey Brckaset Avery Horejsi+3.2
20-2WM&MRYWM&MRYBlockedKaili Doctorblk Katherine Arnason, Teagan Pocius+3.4
31-2WM&MRYNO FLAKillKaili Doctorset Sofia Dawson+2.3
41-3NO FLAWM&MRYKillAudrey Brckaset Cate Hatfield+2.6
52-3WM&MRYNO FLA×3Serve errWilliam & Mary+2.4
63-3NO FLANO FLA×3KillYarimar Francis Garay+3.3
74-3NO FLANO FLA×3BlockedEmily McKeeblk Yarimar Francis Garay, Kaili Doctor+3.2
84-4NO FLAWM&MRYKillTeagan Pociusset Cate Hatfield+2.4
94-5WM&MRYWM&MRYAceWilliam & Mary+3.5
105-5WM&MRYNO FLAKillLeah McDonaldset Sofia Dawson+2.5
115-6NO FLAWM&MRYKillCate Hatfieldset Leah McDonald+2.7
126-6WM&MRYNO FLAKillLeah McDonaldset Avery Horejsi+2.6
136-7NO FLAWM&MRYKillCate Hatfield+2.8
147-7WM&MRYNO FLABlockedOlivia Westfortblk Sasha Bespaly, Dakota Spurrier+2.7
157-8NO FLAWM&MRYKillAudrey Brckaset Cate Hatfield+2.9
167-9WM&MRYWM&MRYKillAudrey Brckaset Cate Hatfield+4.0
178-9WM&MRYNO FLAServe errWilliam & Mary+2.7
189-9NO FLANO FLAAttack errTeagan Pocius+3.9
199-10NO FLAWM&MRYKillAudrey Brckaset Cate Hatfield+3.1
2010-10WM&MRYNO FLAAttack errAudrey Brcka+2.9
2110-11NO FLAWM&MRYKillKatherine Arnasonset Cate Hatfield+3.2
2211-11WM&MRYNO FLA×4KillYarimar Francis Garayset Haydin Froehlich+3.0
2312-11NO FLANO FLA×4KillLeah McDonaldset Sofia Dawson+4.1
2413-11NO FLANO FLA×4Attack errKatherine Arnason+3.9
2514-11NO FLANO FLA×4Bad setCate Hatfield+3.5
2614-12NO FLAWM&MRYKillKatherine Arnasonset Cate Hatfield+2.4
2714-13WM&MRYWM&MRYBlockedLeah McDonaldblk Katherine Arnason, Olivia Westfort+3.9
2815-13WM&MRYNO FLAKillYarimar Francis Garayset Sofia Dawson+3.1
2916-13NO FLANO FLAAttack errKatherine Arnason+3.8
3016-14NO FLAWM&MRYKillEmily McKeeset Cate Hatfield+2.5
3117-14WM&MRYNO FLAKillYarimar Francis Garayset Sofia Dawson+2.9
3217-15NO FLAWM&MRYKillOlivia Westfortset Cate Hatfield+2.5
3317-16WM&MRYWM&MRYKillAudrey Brckaset Cate Hatfield+4.4
3418-16WM&MRYNO FLAServe errWilliam & Mary+3.6
3518-17NO FLAWM&MRYKillAudrey Brckaset Cate Hatfield+3.4
3618-18WM&MRYWM&MRYKillAudrey Brckaset Cate Hatfield+5.6
3719-18WM&MRYNO FLAKillDakota Spurrierset Kaili Doctor+4.4
3819-19NO FLAWM&MRY×3Serve errNorth Florida+4.5
3919-20WM&MRYWM&MRY×3KillAudrey Brckaset Avery Horejsi+7.0
4019-21WM&MRYWM&MRY×3Attack errKaili Doctor+7.2
4120-21WM&MRYNO FLAKillKaili Doctorset Sofia Dawson+4.3
4220-22NO FLAWM&MRY×4KillAudrey Brckaset Avery Horejsi+6.0
4320-23WM&MRYWM&MRY×4KillEmily McKeeset Cate Hatfield+6.7
4420-24WM&MRYWM&MRY×4Attack errKaili Doctor+4.0
4520-25WM&MRYWM&MRY×4KillEmily McKeeset Avery Horejsi+1.3
Set 4
10-1NO FLAWM&MRYKillAudrey Brckaset Cate Hatfield+2.9
21-1WM&MRYNO FLAServe errWilliam & Mary+2.8
32-1NO FLANO FLAAceNorth Floridaaced Ava Crabtree+3.7
42-2NO FLAWM&MRYKillKatherine Arnasonset Cate Hatfield+2.8
53-2WM&MRYNO FLAKillDakota Spurrierset Sofia Dawson+2.8
63-3NO FLAWM&MRY×3BlockedLeah McDonaldblk Olivia Westfort, Emily McKee+2.9
73-4WM&MRYWM&MRY×3Attack errDakota Spurrier+4.1
83-5WM&MRYWM&MRY×3KillEmily McKeeset Cate Hatfield+4.3
94-5WM&MRYNO FLAKillDakota Spurrierset Sofia Dawson+3.0
104-6NO FLAWM&MRYServe errNorth Florida+3.3
114-7WM&MRYWM&MRYAttack errDakota Spurrier+4.4
125-7WM&MRYNO FLA×3KillDakota Spurrierset Sofia Dawson+2.9
136-7NO FLANO FLA×3KillKaili Doctor+4.3
147-7NO FLANO FLA×3Attack errAudrey Brcka+4.4
157-8NO FLAWM&MRYKillAudrey Brckaset Cate Hatfield+3.4
168-8WM&MRYNO FLAKillKaili Doctorset Sofia Dawson+3.3
178-9NO FLAWM&MRYServe errNorth Florida+3.6
189-9WM&MRYNO FLAKillYarimar Francis Garayset Avery Horejsi+3.4
199-10NO FLAWM&MRYKillAudrey Brckaset Cate Hatfield+3.7
209-11WM&MRYWM&MRYKillSophia Van Nameset Cate Hatfield+5.1
2110-11WM&MRYNO FLAKillLeah McDonaldset Sofia Dawson+3.5
2211-11NO FLANO FLAAttack errEmily McKee+5.0
2311-12NO FLAWM&MRY×4Serve errNorth Florida+3.9
2411-13WM&MRYWM&MRY×4Attack errDakota Spurrier+5.5
2511-14WM&MRYWM&MRY×4BlockedYarimar Francis Garayblk Olivia Westfort+5.4
2611-15WM&MRYWM&MRY×4Attack errDakota Spurrier+5.0
2712-15WM&MRYNO FLA×5BlockedEmily McKeeblk Yarimar Francis Garay, Leah McDonald+2.9
2813-15NO FLANO FLA×5Attack errSophia Van Name+4.8
2914-15NO FLANO FLA×5KillLeah McDonaldset Sofia Dawson+5.5
3015-15NO FLANO FLA×5Attack errKatherine Arnason+5.9
3116-15NO FLANO FLA×5KillDakota Spurrierset Sofia Dawson+6.0
3216-16NO FLAWM&MRYKillOlivia Westfortset Cate Hatfield+4.5
3317-16WM&MRYNO FLAKillLeah McDonaldset Sofia Dawson+4.6
3417-17NO FLAWM&MRY×3Serve errNorth Florida+4.7
3517-18WM&MRYWM&MRY×3KillEmily McKeeset Cate Hatfield+7.2
3617-19WM&MRYWM&MRY×3BlockedDakota Spurrierblk Cate Hatfield, Olivia Westfort+7.4
3718-19WM&MRYNO FLAServe errWilliam & Mary+4.7
3819-19NO FLANO FLAAttack errAudrey Brcka+7.5
3919-20NO FLAWM&MRY×4KillOlivia Westfortset Cate Hatfield+6.3
4019-21WM&MRYWM&MRY×4KillAudrey Brckaset Emily McKee+8.7
4119-22WM&MRYWM&MRY×4KillAudrey Brckaset Katherine Arnason+7.6
4219-23WM&MRYWM&MRY×4KillAudrey Brckaset Katherine Arnason+5.3
4320-23WM&MRYNO FLA×3KillKaili Doctorset Sofia Dawson+1.8
4421-23NO FLANO FLA×3Attack errAudrey Brcka+4.5
4522-23NO FLANO FLA×3AceNorth Floridaaced Emily McKee+7.7
4622-24NO FLAWM&MRYKillAudrey Brckaset Cate Hatfield+9.6
4722-25WM&MRYWM&MRYKillKatherine Arnasonset Cate Hatfield+7.7

Score shown after each rally, North Florida first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).