FinalFri, Oct 2, 2026Watch on ESPN+

CSU Bakersfield def. Cal St. Fullerton 3–0

RallyIQ pre-match: CSU Bakersfield 86.3% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Oct 2, 7:56 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

CSU Bakersfield beat visiting Cal St. Fullerton 3-0 (27-25, 25-19, 25-23) on Fri, Oct 2, 2026. CSU Bakersfield's Suelen Lima led with 10 kills, and Samantha Capinpin added 10 digs.

Data through · final Oct 2

Set123Sets
CSFULL2519230
CSUBAK2725253

Match story · written from the play-by-play

CSU Bakersfield swept Cal St. Fullerton without a set decided by more than six and led every phase.

The biggest single-rally swing was 5.0 points, and Cal St. Fullerton's high was 20% in Set 1. The numbers below are where it was won. RallyIQ gave CSU Bakersfield 86% before first serve.

Cal St. FullertonCSU Bakersfield
  • Hitting+.085
    .123.208

    44 K / 18 E against 32 K / 19 E.

  • Longest run+-1
    65

    5 straight CSU Bakersfield points in the second set turned a 4–6 deficit into a 9–6 lead. That set ended 25–19.

CSU Bakersfield above 50Cal St. Fullerton belowMax swing 5.0%

Cal St. FullertonCSU Bakersfield

Aces
Cal St. Fullerton 4·CSU Bakersfield 5
Serve err
Cal St. Fullerton 9·CSU Bakersfield 13
Blocks
Cal St. Fullerton 7·CSU Bakersfield 81 BS · 12 BA vs 1 BS · 14 BA
Digs
Cal St. Fullerton 50·CSU Bakersfield 46

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

CSU Bakersfield above 50 · Cal St. Fullerton below
SET 1SET 2SET 310050100+5.0% CSUBAKrally 144 · set 3

Biggest swing: 5.0% to CSU Bakersfield — set 1, CSFULL 25-27 CSUBAK. CSU Bakersfield ace on Kaia Herweg. CSUBAK win probability 88% → 93%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

CSFULL 19.6%80.4% CSUBAK

Cal St. Fullerton wins

3-0
3.2%
3-1
6.5%
3-2
9.9%

CSU Bakersfield wins

3-0
31.9%
3-1
30.3%
3-2
18.2%
CSFULL break %
39.3% vs this opp
CSUBAK break %
45.8% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    CSU BakersfieldAce+5.0%

    CSU Bakersfield ace on Kaia Herweg

    Set 1 · CSFULL 25-27 CSUBAK · CSUBAK 88% → 93%

  2. 02
    Anna BacchinAttack error+4.6%

    Attack error by Anna Bacchin

    Set 1 · CSFULL 23-23 CSUBAK · CSFULL 12% → 16%

  3. 03
    Suelen LimaKill+4.3%

    Kill by Suelen Lima (set by Analiese Gagliano)

    Set 1 · CSFULL 23-24 CSUBAK · CSUBAK 84% → 88%

  4. 04
    Bella RislingKill+4.3%

    Kill by Bella Risling (set by Italia Bernal)

    Set 1 · CSFULL 24-24 CSUBAK · CSFULL 12% → 16%

  5. 05
    Suelen LimaKill+4.3%

    Kill by Suelen Lima (set by Luiza Da Cruz)

    Set 1 · CSFULL 24-25 CSUBAK · CSUBAK 84% → 88%

  6. 06
    Bella RislingKill+4.3%

    Kill by Bella Risling (set by Italia Bernal)

    Set 1 · CSFULL 25-25 CSUBAK · CSFULL 12% → 16%

  7. 07

    Kill by Jordyn Waite-Ward (set by Samantha Capinpin)

    Set 1 · CSFULL 25-26 CSUBAK · CSUBAK 84% → 88%

  8. 08

    Sofia Shine stuffed by Suelen Lima & Defne Yanik

    Set 1 · CSFULL 21-22 CSUBAK · CSUBAK 83% → 87%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
310520.2500003002111
35113.30801170111.57.5
37526.077001430007
3104.2502121600003
30311-.27300000031.51.5
2001.000001000211
34423.00010030031.55.5
3001.0004021710000
3000–201800000
2416.500000000004
2000–411100001
11011.00000110010.51.5
1000–000000000
Team totals3219106.1233249505112767
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
310326.26901130031.512.5
37321.1900233012211
38734.02911262010.59.5
37014.50010030031.58.5
3327.14320000052.55.5
3102.5001501300001
37216.313000100007
3000–113700001
3001.000401900000
3001.00013011000000
1113.000000000001
1000–001100000
Team totals4418125.20837513464114877

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Cal St. Fullerton vs CSU Bakersfield

Season series · CSU Bakersfield leads 2-0

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 6 CSFULL · CSUBAK 5

Set 1

25-27

Longest run 6 CSFULLCSUBAK 4

Set 2

19-25

Longest run 3 CSFULLCSUBAK 5

Set 3

23-25

Longest run 3 CSFULLCSUBAK 3

Bars above the line = CSU Bakersfield leads, below = Cal St. Fullerton leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Cal St. Fullerton

SlotSideout %Break %
1
62%8/13
22%2/9
2
67%8/12
38%5/13
3
47%7/15
33%4/12
4
50%7/14
42%5/12
5
67%6/9
46%6/13
6
42%5/12
40%4/10
All
55%41/75
38%26/69

CSU Bakersfield

SlotSideout %Break %
1
67%8/12
57%8/14
2
62%8/13
38%5/13
3
73%8/11
11%1/9
4
64%7/11
63%12/19
5
44%7/16
42%5/12
6
83%5/6
38%3/8
All
62%43/69
45%34/75

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

144 rallies

#CSFULL-CSUBAKSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
11-0CSFULLCSFULLAceCal St. Fullertonaced Anna Bacchin+1.5
21-1CSFULLCSUBAKKillSuelen Limaset Luiza Da Cruz+1.0
32-1CSUBAKCSFULLKillBella Rislingset Italia Bernal+1.1
42-2CSFULLCSUBAKAttack errParys Taylor+1.0
52-3CSUBAKCSUBAKAttack errZariah Crosby+1.4
63-3CSUBAKCSFULLBlockedJordyn Waite-Wardblk Bella Risling, Zariah Crosby+1.1
73-4CSFULLCSUBAKKillSuelen Limaset Samantha Capinpin+1.0
84-4CSUBAKCSFULLKillKaia Herwegset Mia Feldhaus+1.1
94-5CSFULLCSUBAK×4KillReese Jacksonset Samantha Capinpin+1.0
104-6CSUBAKCSUBAK×4KillAnna Bacchinset Boden Liljedahl+1.3
114-7CSUBAKCSUBAK×4Attack errSofia Shine+1.1
124-8CSUBAKCSUBAK×4AceCSU Bakersfield+0.9
135-8CSUBAKCSFULL×6Serve errCSU Bakersfield+0.7
146-8CSFULLCSFULL×6BlockedReese Jacksonblk Sofia Shine, Emilia Graham+1.1
157-8CSFULLCSFULL×6KillKaia Herwegset Italia Bernal+1.4
168-8CSFULLCSFULL×6Attack errAnna Bacchin+1.7
179-8CSFULLCSFULL×6Attack errAnna Bacchin+1.9
1810-8CSFULLCSFULL×6KillSofia Shineset Kaieva Christensen+2.1
1910-9CSFULLCSUBAKServe errCal St. Fullerton+1.4
2011-9CSUBAKCSFULLAttack errDefne Yanik+1.6
2111-10CSFULLCSUBAK×3KillDefne Yanikset Luiza Da Cruz+1.4
2211-11CSUBAKCSUBAK×3KillLeylah Duranset Luiza Da Cruz+2.0
2311-12CSUBAKCSUBAK×3Attack errBella Risling+1.9
2412-12CSUBAKCSFULLKillBella Rislingset Italia Bernal+1.5
2512-13CSFULLCSUBAKKillAnna Bacchinset Leylah Duran+1.4
2613-13CSUBAKCSFULLServe errCSU Bakersfield+1.5
2713-14CSFULLCSUBAKServe errCal St. Fullerton+1.5
2814-14CSUBAKCSFULLBlockedSuelen Limablk Zariah Crosby, Bella Risling+1.6
2915-14CSFULLCSFULLKillKaia Herwegset Italia Bernal+2.5
3015-15CSFULLCSUBAK×4KillReese Jacksonset Analiese Gagliano+1.7
3115-16CSUBAKCSUBAK×4Attack errZariah Crosby+2.3
3215-17CSUBAKCSUBAK×4Attack errKaia Herweg+2.1
3315-18CSUBAKCSUBAK×4KillAnna Bacchin+1.7
3416-18CSUBAKCSFULL×3Serve errCSU Bakersfield+1.1
3517-18CSFULLCSFULL×3Attack errAnna Bacchin+2.0
3618-18CSFULLCSFULL×3KillItalia Bernalset Mia Feldhaus+2.7
3718-19CSFULLCSUBAKKillJordyn Waite-Wardset Samantha Capinpin+2.0
3819-19CSUBAKCSFULLKillSofia Shineset Italia Bernal+2.2
3920-19CSFULLCSFULLAttack errDefne Yanik+3.6
4020-20CSFULLCSUBAKKillReese Jacksonset Samantha Capinpin+2.4
4121-20CSUBAKCSFULLKillSofia Shineset Italia Bernal+3.0
4221-21CSFULLCSUBAK×3KillAnna Bacchinset Luiza Da Cruz+2.7
4321-22CSUBAKCSUBAK×3BlockedSofia Shineblk Suelen Lima, Defne Yanik+4.0
4421-23CSUBAKCSUBAK×3AceCSU Bakersfieldaced Kaia Herweg+3.4
4522-23CSUBAKCSFULLBlockedSuelen Limablk Sofia Shine, Emilia Graham+1.8
4623-23CSFULLCSFULLAttack errAnna Bacchin+4.6
4723-24CSFULLCSUBAKKillSuelen Limaset Analiese Gagliano+4.3
4824-24CSUBAKCSFULLKillBella Rislingset Italia Bernal+4.3
4924-25CSFULLCSUBAKKillSuelen Limaset Luiza Da Cruz+4.3
5025-25CSUBAKCSFULLKillBella Rislingset Italia Bernal+4.3
5125-26CSFULLCSUBAKKillJordyn Waite-Wardset Samantha Capinpin+4.3
5225-27CSUBAKCSUBAKAceCSU Bakersfieldaced Kaia Herweg+5.0
Set 2
10-1CSUBAKCSUBAKBlockedKaia Herwegblk Defne Yanik, Leylah Duran+0.9
20-2CSUBAKCSUBAKBlockedBella Rislingblk Suelen Lima, Defne Yanik+0.8
31-2CSUBAKCSFULL×3Serve errCSU Bakersfield+0.6
42-2CSFULLCSFULL×3Attack errAnna Bacchin+1.0
53-2CSFULLCSFULL×3KillKaia Herwegset Italia Bernal+1.1
63-3CSFULLCSUBAKServe errCal St. Fullerton+0.8
74-3CSUBAKCSFULLServe errCSU Bakersfield+0.9
84-4CSFULLCSUBAKKillJordyn Waite-Wardset Luiza Da Cruz+0.8
95-4CSUBAKCSFULLServe errCSU Bakersfield+0.9
106-4CSFULLCSFULLAttack errJordyn Waite-Ward+1.3
116-5CSFULLCSUBAK×5Serve errCal St. Fullerton+0.9
126-6CSUBAKCSUBAK×5Attack errSofia Shine+1.2
136-7CSUBAKCSUBAK×5KillJordyn Waite-Wardset Samantha Capinpin+1.1
146-8CSUBAKCSUBAK×5KillAnna Bacchinset Samantha Capinpin+1.0
156-9CSUBAKCSUBAK×5KillReese Jacksonset Samantha Capinpin+0.8
167-9CSUBAKCSFULLKillSofia Shineset Kaieva Christensen+0.6
177-10CSFULLCSUBAKKillJordyn Waite-Wardset Samantha Capinpin+0.6
187-11CSUBAKCSUBAKKillReese Jacksonset Defne Yanik+0.7
198-11CSUBAKCSFULLAttack errAnna Bacchin+0.5
209-11CSFULLCSFULLAceCal St. Fullerton+0.9
219-12CSFULLCSUBAK×3KillAnna Bacchinset Samantha Capinpin+0.7
229-13CSUBAKCSUBAK×3KillAnna Bacchin+0.8
239-14CSUBAKCSUBAK×3BlockedBella Rislingblk Defne Yanik, Leylah Duran+0.6
2410-14CSUBAKCSFULLServe errCSU Bakersfield+0.4
2510-15CSFULLCSUBAKKillLeylah Duranset Luiza Da Cruz+0.4
2610-16CSUBAKCSUBAKAttack errKaia Herweg+0.4
2711-16CSUBAKCSFULLKillBella Rislingset Italia Bernal+0.2
2811-17CSFULLCSUBAK×4Attack errZariah Crosby+0.3
2911-18CSUBAKCSUBAK×4KillLeylah Duranset Analiese Gagliano+0.2
3011-19CSUBAKCSUBAK×4KillLeylah Duran+0.1
3111-20CSUBAKCSUBAK×4BlockedBella Rislingblk Suelen Lima, Jordyn Waite-Ward+0.1
3212-20CSUBAKCSFULL×3KillKaia Herwegset Italia Bernal·
3313-20CSFULLCSFULL×3AceCal St. Fullertonaced Anna Bacchin+0.1
3414-20CSFULLCSFULL×3KillNeeva Gaineset Kaieva Christensen+0.1
3514-21CSFULLCSUBAKKillSuelen Limaset Luiza Da Cruz+0.1
3615-21CSUBAKCSFULLKillKaia Herwegset Sibley Oster+0.1
3715-22CSFULLCSUBAKKillSuelen Limaset Samantha Capinpin+0.1
3816-22CSUBAKCSFULLBlockedReese Jacksonblk Parys Taylor, Zariah Crosby·
3916-23CSFULLCSUBAKKillJordyn Waite-Wardset Samantha Capinpin+0.1
4016-24CSUBAKCSUBAKAceCSU Bakersfieldaced Kaia Herweg·
4117-24CSUBAKCSFULL×3KillNeeva Gaineset Sibley Oster·
4218-24CSFULLCSFULL×3BlockedAmyri Robinsonblk Parys Taylor·
4319-24CSFULLCSFULL×3AceCal St. Fullerton·
4419-25CSFULLCSUBAKKillAmyri Robinsonset Defne Yanik+0.1
Set 3
10-1CSFULLCSUBAKKillDefne Yanikset Luiza Da Cruz+0.3
21-1CSUBAKCSFULLKillKaia Herwegset Italia Bernal+0.4
32-1CSFULLCSFULLKillBella Rislingset Italia Bernal+0.5
42-2CSFULLCSUBAKKillLeylah Duranset Luiza Da Cruz+0.4
53-2CSUBAKCSFULLKillBella Rislingset Italia Bernal+0.4
63-3CSFULLCSUBAK×3Serve errCal St. Fullerton+0.4
73-4CSUBAKCSUBAK×3KillReese Jacksonset Samantha Capinpin+0.5
83-5CSUBAKCSUBAK×3BlockedKaia Herwegblk Jordyn Waite-Ward+0.4
94-5CSUBAKCSFULLServe errCSU Bakersfield+0.3
104-6CSFULLCSUBAKServe errCal St. Fullerton+0.3
115-6CSUBAKCSFULLServe errCSU Bakersfield+0.3
125-7CSFULLCSUBAKKillReese Jacksonset Analiese Gagliano+0.3
136-7CSUBAKCSFULLKillNeeva Gaineset Sibley Oster+0.4
147-7CSFULLCSFULLKillParys Taylorset Italia Bernal+0.6
157-8CSFULLCSUBAKServe errCal St. Fullerton+0.4
167-9CSUBAKCSUBAKKillLeylah Duran+0.5
178-9CSUBAKCSFULLKillBella Rislingset Italia Bernal+0.4
188-10CSFULLCSUBAK×3KillSuelen Limaset Luiza Da Cruz+0.4
198-11CSUBAKCSUBAK×3Attack errBella Risling+0.5
208-12CSUBAKCSUBAK×3BlockedKaia Herwegblk Jordyn Waite-Ward, Leylah Duran+0.4
219-12CSUBAKCSFULLKillBella Rislingset Italia Bernal+0.2
2210-12CSFULLCSFULLKillParys Taylorset Italia Bernal+0.4
2310-13CSFULLCSUBAKKillSuelen Limaset Luiza Da Cruz+0.3
2411-13CSUBAKCSFULLKillHannah Hassset Italia Bernal+0.3
2511-14CSFULLCSUBAK×3KillSuelen Limaset Samantha Capinpin+0.4
2611-15CSUBAKCSUBAK×3Attack errSofia Shine+0.4
2711-16CSUBAKCSUBAK×3AceCSU Bakersfieldaced Kaieva Christensen+0.3
2812-16CSUBAKCSFULLServe errCSU Bakersfield+0.2
2912-17CSFULLCSUBAKKillJordyn Waite-Wardset Samantha Capinpin+0.2
3013-17CSUBAKCSFULLServe errCSU Bakersfield+0.2
3113-18CSFULLCSUBAKServe errCal St. Fullerton+0.2
3213-19CSUBAKCSUBAKBlockedNeeva Gaineblk Anna Bacchin, Defne Yanik+0.2
3314-19CSUBAKCSFULLKillNeeva Gaineset Sibley Oster+0.1
3414-20CSFULLCSUBAKKillDefne Yanikset Luiza Da Cruz+0.1
3515-20CSUBAKCSFULLServe errCSU Bakersfield+0.1
3615-21CSFULLCSUBAKServe errCal St. Fullerton+0.1
3716-21CSUBAKCSFULLKillBella Rislingset Italia Bernal+0.1
3817-21CSFULLCSFULLAttack errSuelen Lima+0.2
3917-22CSFULLCSUBAKKillLeylah Duranset Luiza Da Cruz+0.2
4018-22CSUBAKCSFULLBlockedJordyn Waite-Wardblk Hannah Hass, Sofia Shine+0.1
4119-22CSFULLCSFULLKillParys Taylorset Italia Bernal+0.3
4219-23CSFULLCSUBAKKillSuelen Limaset Luiza Da Cruz+0.3
4320-23CSUBAKCSFULL×3Serve errCSU Bakersfield+0.1
4421-23CSFULLCSFULL×3Attack errAnna Bacchin+0.4
4522-23CSFULLCSFULL×3KillParys Taylorset Sofia Shine+0.9
4622-24CSFULLCSUBAKKillAnna Bacchinset Luiza Da Cruz+1.0
4723-24CSUBAKCSFULLKillParys Taylorset Kaieva Christensen+0.6
4823-25CSFULLCSUBAKKillLuiza Da Cruzset Anna Bacchin+1.2

Score shown after each rally, Cal St. Fullerton first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).