Final · 4 setsSat, Aug 29, 2026 · Neutral site

Miami (OH) def. Cal St. Fullerton 3–1

Miami (OH) beat Cal St. Fullerton 3-1 (23-25, 25-18, 25-3, 25-16) on Sat, Aug 29, 2026 at a neutral site. Miami (OH)'s Molly Creech led with 20 kills, and Grace Kreutz added 16 digs.

Data through · final Aug 29

Set1234Sets
CSFULL25183161
MIA OH232525253

Win probability

Miami (OH) above 50 · Cal St. Fullerton below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100+5.9% CSFULLrally 160 · set 4

Biggest swing: 5.9% to Cal St. Fullerton — set 1, CSFULL 25-23 MIA OH. Cal St. Fullerton ace. MIA OH win probability 88% → 82%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

CSFULL 5.4%94.6% MIA OH

Cal St. Fullerton wins

3-0
0.6%
3-1
1.5%
3-2
3.3%

Miami (OH) wins

3-0
54.2%
3-1
30.0%
3-2
10.3%
CSFULL break %
34.9% vs this opp
MIA OH break %
47.1% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Cal St. FullertonAce+5.9%

    Cal St. Fullerton ace

    Set 1 · CSFULL 25-23 MIA OH · CSFULL 12% → 18%

  2. 02
    Molly CreechKill+3.8%

    Kill by Molly Creech (set by Rachel Morgan)

    Set 2 · CSFULL 16-16 MIA OH · MIA OH 74% → 78%

  3. 03
    Cal St. FullertonAce+3.8%

    Cal St. Fullerton ace on Chelsea Williams

    Set 2 · CSFULL 12-8 MIA OH · CSFULL 29% → 32%

  4. 04

    Lauren Coyne stuffed by Arianna Ellis & Emilia Graham

    Set 2 · CSFULL 11-8 MIA OH · CSFULL 25% → 29%

  5. 05
    Sofia ShineAttack error+3.5%

    Attack error by Sofia Shine

    Set 2 · CSFULL 16-17 MIA OH · MIA OH 78% → 81%

  6. 06
    Lauren CoyneKill+3.5%

    Kill by Lauren Coyne (set by Holland Van Deusen)

    Set 2 · CSFULL 14-13 MIA OH · MIA OH 72% → 75%

  7. 07
    Molly CreechKill+3.3%

    Kill by Molly Creech (set by Holland Van Deusen)

    Set 1 · CSFULL 23-23 MIA OH · MIA OH 88% → 91%

  8. 08
    Cal St. FullertonAce+3.2%

    Cal St. Fullerton ace

    Set 2 · CSFULL 10-8 MIA OH · CSFULL 22% → 25%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
411433.2120001002112
48735.02901252010.59.5
44110.30010020111.55.5
4102.50022221300003
4012-.500222830002
4012-.50000200031.51.5
46527.03700020010.56.5
4013-.3332201020002
4112.000313900002
1213.333000100002
1003.000000000000
1003.000000010000
Team totals3322125.08830811511118562
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
420246.3912227110123
410221.38100020031.511.5
48113.5380132004211
4015-.2000501600005
4011-1.0002022700002
4004.000000300000
49115.53300021010.59.5
4001.0001412300001
4000–5001310000
3306.50000000010.53.5
3000–101300000
1128-.12500001010.51.5
1011-1.000000100000
1000–200300000
Team totals5111121.331441110628110698

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 7 CSFULL · MIA OH 16

Set 1

25-23

Longest run 7 CSFULLMIA OH 3

Set 2

18-25

Longest run 4 CSFULLMIA OH 5

Set 3

3-25

Longest run 1 CSFULLMIA OH 16

Set 4

16-25

Longest run 2 CSFULLMIA OH 5

Bars above the line = Miami (OH) leads, below = Cal St. Fullerton leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Cal St. Fullerton

SlotSideout %Break %
1
27%8/30
36%4/11
2
44%8/18
0%0/8
3
47%7/15
22%2/9
4
50%6/12
50%7/14
5
50%6/12
25%2/8
6
50%5/10
54%7/13
All
41%40/97
35%22/63

Miami (OH)

SlotSideout %Break %
1
89%8/9
50%6/12
2
100%8/8
74%23/31
3
70%7/10
47%7/15
4
47%7/15
56%9/16
5
55%6/11
54%7/13
6
50%5/10
50%5/10
All
65%41/63
59%57/97

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

160 rallies

#CSFULL-MIA OHSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
11-0CSFULLCSFULLKillArianna Ellisset Kaieva Christensen+0.8
21-1CSFULLMIA OHBlockedKaieva Christensenblk Lauren Coyne+0.5
32-1MIA OHCSFULLKillArianna Ellisset Italia Bernal+0.6
42-2CSFULLMIA OH×3KillLauren Coyneset Holland Van Deusen+0.5
52-3MIA OHMIA OH×3KillLauren Coyne+0.7
62-4MIA OHMIA OH×3Attack errHannah Hass+0.6
73-4MIA OHCSFULLKillHannah Hassset Italia Bernal+0.4
84-4CSFULLCSFULLAttack errLauren Coyne+0.8
94-5CSFULLMIA OHKillMolly Creechset Holland Van Deusen+0.5
105-5MIA OHCSFULLKillBella Rislingset Kaieva Christensen+0.6
115-6CSFULLMIA OHKillMolly Creechset Kamryn Utley+0.5
126-6MIA OHCSFULLServe errMiami (OH)+0.6
136-7CSFULLMIA OHKillChelsea Williamsset Rachel Morgan+0.5
147-7MIA OHCSFULLKillSofia Shineset Italia Bernal+0.6
158-7CSFULLCSFULLAceCal St. Fullertonaced Rachel Morgan+1.0
168-8CSFULLMIA OHServe errCal St. Fullerton+0.7
178-9MIA OHMIA OHAttack errSofia Shine+0.9
189-9MIA OHCSFULLKillSofia Shineset Italia Bernal+0.7
199-10CSFULLMIA OH×3Serve errCal St. Fullerton+0.6
209-11MIA OHMIA OH×3AceMiami (OH)+0.8
219-12MIA OHMIA OH×3KillMolly Creechset Holland Van Deusen+0.6
2210-12MIA OHCSFULLAttack errLindy Radaszewski+0.4
2310-13CSFULLMIA OHServe errCal St. Fullerton+0.4
2411-13MIA OHCSFULLBlockedHolland Van Deusenblk Bella Risling, Hannah Hass+0.5
2511-14CSFULLMIA OHAttack errBella Risling+0.5
2611-15MIA OHMIA OHKillSydney Wallerset Rachel Morgan+0.5
2712-15MIA OHCSFULL×7KillBella Rislingset Italia Bernal+0.3
2813-15CSFULLCSFULL×7BlockedSydney Wallerblk Hannah Hass+0.7
2914-15CSFULLCSFULL×7AceCal St. Fullerton+0.9
3015-15CSFULLCSFULL×7KillSofia Shineset Mia Feldhaus+1.3
3116-15CSFULLCSFULL×7Attack errMolly Creech+1.6
3217-15CSFULLCSFULL×7Attack errMolly Creech+1.9
3318-15CSFULLCSFULL×7KillBella Rislingset Italia Bernal+2.0
3418-16CSFULLMIA OHServe errCal St. Fullerton+1.0
3518-17MIA OHMIA OHAttack errSofia Shine+1.7
3619-17MIA OHCSFULLKillBella Rislingset Italia Bernal+1.6
3719-18CSFULLMIA OHKillChelsea Williamsset Madison Brown+1.2
3819-19MIA OHMIA OHKillLindy Radaszewski+1.9
3920-19MIA OHCSFULLAttack errSydney Waller+1.6
4021-19CSFULLCSFULLAceCal St. Fullertonaced Sydney Waller+2.6
4121-20CSFULLMIA OHKillLindy Radaszewskiset Madison Brown+1.4
4222-20MIA OHCSFULLKillArianna Ellisset Italia Bernal+2.1
4322-21CSFULLMIA OHKillChelsea Williamsset Holland Van Deusen+1.5
4423-21MIA OHCSFULLKillArianna Ellisset Italia Bernal+2.5
4523-22CSFULLMIA OHKillMolly Creechset Holland Van Deusen+1.6
4623-23MIA OHMIA OHKillMolly Creechset Holland Van Deusen+3.3
4724-23MIA OHCSFULLKillArianna Ellisset Italia Bernal+3.2
4825-23CSFULLCSFULLAceCal St. Fullerton+5.9
Set 2
11-0MIA OHCSFULLServe errMiami (OH)+1.4
21-1CSFULLMIA OH×4KillMolly Creechset Holland Van Deusen+1.2
31-2MIA OHMIA OH×4KillMolly Creechset Holland Van Deusen+1.7
41-3MIA OHMIA OH×4Attack errArianna Ellis+1.4
51-4MIA OHMIA OH×4KillLauren Coyneset Holland Van Deusen+1.2
62-4MIA OHCSFULLKillJaiden Mojicaset Hannah Hass+0.9
72-5CSFULLMIA OHServe errCal St. Fullerton+0.8
83-5MIA OHCSFULLServe errMiami (OH)+0.9
93-6CSFULLMIA OHKillMolly Creechset Holland Van Deusen+0.8
104-6MIA OHCSFULLAttack errGrace Kreutz+0.9
114-7CSFULLMIA OHKillMolly Creechset Piper Willinger+0.9
125-7MIA OHCSFULL×4KillSofia Shineset Italia Bernal+0.9
136-7CSFULLCSFULL×4KillBella Rislingset Italia Bernal+1.7
147-7CSFULLCSFULL×4BlockedKendall Bosseblk Emilia Graham, Sofia Shine+2.2
158-7CSFULLCSFULL×4KillBella Rislingset Mia Feldhaus+2.6
168-8CSFULLMIA OHKillChelsea Williamsset Piper Willinger+1.6
179-8MIA OHCSFULL×4KillArianna Ellisset Italia Bernal+2.0
1810-8CSFULLCSFULL×4AceCal St. Fullerton+3.2
1911-8CSFULLCSFULL×4BlockedLauren Coyneblk Arianna Ellis, Emilia Graham+3.6
2012-8CSFULLCSFULL×4AceCal St. Fullertonaced Chelsea Williams+3.8
2112-9CSFULLMIA OHKillChelsea Williamsset Piper Willinger+2.0
2212-10MIA OHMIA OHAttack errBella Risling+3.2
2313-10MIA OHCSFULLKillArianna Ellisset Italia Bernal+2.8
2413-11CSFULLMIA OHKillChelsea Williamsset Holland Van Deusen+2.2
2514-11MIA OHCSFULLKillHannah Hass+3.0
2614-12CSFULLMIA OHBad setBella Risling+2.3
2714-13MIA OHMIA OHKillLauren Coyneset Holland Van Deusen+3.5
2815-13MIA OHCSFULLServe errMiami (OH)+3.0
2915-14CSFULLMIA OHAttack errBella Risling+2.4
3016-14MIA OHCSFULLServe errMiami (OH)+3.2
3116-15CSFULLMIA OH×5KillMolly Creechset Piper Willinger+2.6
3216-16MIA OHMIA OH×5KillMolly Creechset Rachel Morgan+3.8
3316-17MIA OHMIA OH×5Attack errSofia Shine+3.5
3416-18MIA OHMIA OH×5Attack errSofia Shine+3.0
3516-19MIA OHMIA OH×5AceMiami (OH)aced Mia Feldhaus+2.3
3617-19MIA OHCSFULLServe errMiami (OH)+1.4
3717-20CSFULLMIA OHKillChelsea Williamsset Piper Willinger+1.6
3818-20MIA OHCSFULLServe errMiami (OH)+1.4
3918-21CSFULLMIA OH×5BlockedArianna Ellisblk Lindy Radaszewski, Chelsea Williams+1.7
4018-22MIA OHMIA OH×5Attack errBella Risling+1.5
4118-23MIA OHMIA OH×5AceMiami (OH)aced Kaieva Christensen+0.7
4218-24MIA OHMIA OH×5AceMiami (OH)aced Kaieva Christensen+0.2
4318-25MIA OHMIA OH×5KillLindy Radaszewskiset Holland Van Deusen·
Set 3
10-1CSFULLMIA OH×16KillLindy Radaszewskiset Holland Van Deusen+0.9
20-2MIA OHMIA OH×16BlockedArianna Ellisblk Molly Creech+1.2
30-3MIA OHMIA OH×16Attack errBella Risling+1.0
40-4MIA OHMIA OH×16BlockedBella Rislingblk Lindy Radaszewski, Lauren Coyne+0.8
50-5MIA OHMIA OH×16KillMolly Creechset Holland Van Deusen+0.6
60-6MIA OHMIA OH×16KillMolly Creechset Holland Van Deusen+0.5
70-7MIA OHMIA OH×16KillLauren Coyneset Rachel Morgan+0.3
80-8MIA OHMIA OH×16AceMiami (OH)aced Mia Feldhaus+0.2
90-9MIA OHMIA OH×16AceMiami (OH)+0.2
100-10MIA OHMIA OH×16KillLindy Radaszewski+0.1
110-11MIA OHMIA OH×16AceMiami (OH)aced Bella Risling+0.1
120-12MIA OHMIA OH×16KillMolly Creech·
130-13MIA OHMIA OH×16KillLauren Coyneset Kaieva Christensen·
140-14MIA OHMIA OH×16Attack errEmilia Graham·
150-15MIA OHMIA OH×16KillLindy Radaszewskiset Holland Van Deusen·
160-16MIA OHMIA OH×16KillLauren Coyneset Holland Van Deusen·
171-16MIA OHCSFULLKillArianna Ellisset Italia Bernal·
181-17CSFULLMIA OHKillLindy Radaszewskiset Holland Van Deusen·
191-18MIA OHMIA OHAceMiami (OH)aced Parys Taylor·
202-18MIA OHCSFULLKillHannah Hassset Italia Bernal·
212-19CSFULLMIA OH×5Serve errCal St. Fullerton·
222-20MIA OHMIA OH×5KillMolly Creechset Piper Willinger·
232-21MIA OHMIA OH×5Attack errBella Risling·
242-22MIA OHMIA OH×5KillSophia Stallworthset Piper Willinger·
252-23MIA OHMIA OH×5KillMolly Creechset Piper Willinger·
263-23MIA OHCSFULLKillItalia Bernal·
273-24CSFULLMIA OHBad setSofia Shine·
283-25MIA OHMIA OHBlockedSofia Shineblk Lindy Radaszewski, Sophia Stallworth·
Set 4
11-0MIA OHCSFULLServe errMiami (OH)+0.9
21-1CSFULLMIA OH×4Serve errCal St. Fullerton+0.8
31-2MIA OHMIA OH×4AceMiami (OH)aced Kaieva Christensen+1.0
41-3MIA OHMIA OH×4KillLauren Coyneset Rachel Morgan+0.9
51-4MIA OHMIA OH×4Attack errArianna Ellis+0.7
62-4MIA OHCSFULLKillHannah Hassset Italia Bernal+0.5
72-5CSFULLMIA OH×3KillLauren Coyneset Holland Van Deusen+0.5
82-6MIA OHMIA OH×3Attack errJaiden Mojica+0.6
92-7MIA OHMIA OH×3KillLauren Coyneset Italia Bernal+0.5
103-7MIA OHCSFULLKillBella Rislingset Italia Bernal+0.3
114-7CSFULLCSFULLKillBella Rislingset Italia Bernal+0.6
124-8CSFULLMIA OH×5Serve errCal St. Fullerton+0.4
134-9MIA OHMIA OH×5KillMolly Creechset Piper Willinger+0.5
144-10MIA OHMIA OH×5AceMiami (OH)aced Bella Risling+0.4
154-11MIA OHMIA OH×5Attack errMia Feldhaus+0.2
164-12MIA OHMIA OH×5KillMolly Creechset Piper Willinger+0.2
175-12MIA OHCSFULLKillSofia Shineset Jaiden Mojica+0.1
186-12CSFULLCSFULLAceCal St. Fullerton+0.2
196-13CSFULLMIA OHKillSophia Stallworthset Piper Willinger+0.2
207-13MIA OHCSFULLKillAva Pondset Jaiden Mojica+0.1
218-13CSFULLCSFULLBlockedChelsea Williamsblk Emilia Graham, Arianna Ellis+0.3
228-14CSFULLMIA OH×4KillChelsea Williamsset Molly Creech+0.2
238-15MIA OHMIA OH×4KillMolly Creechset Piper Willinger+0.2
248-16MIA OHMIA OH×4KillLindy Radaszewskiset Piper Willinger+0.1
258-17MIA OHMIA OH×4KillChelsea Williamsset Piper Willinger+0.1
269-17MIA OHCSFULLKillArianna Ellisset Italia Bernal·
279-18CSFULLMIA OHServe errCal St. Fullerton·
2810-18MIA OHCSFULLKillArianna Ellisset Italia Bernal·
2910-19CSFULLMIA OHBad setItalia Bernal·
3011-19MIA OHCSFULLKillArianna Ellisset Italia Bernal·
3111-20CSFULLMIA OHServe errCal St. Fullerton·
3212-20MIA OHCSFULLServe errMiami (OH)·
3312-21CSFULLMIA OHKillMolly Creechset Holland Van Deusen·
3413-21MIA OHCSFULLServe errMiami (OH)·
3514-21CSFULLCSFULLAceCal St. Fullertonaced Molly Creech·
3614-22CSFULLMIA OHAttack errAva Pond·
3714-23MIA OHMIA OHAceMiami (OH)·
3815-23MIA OHCSFULLKillAva Pondset Jaiden Mojica·
3916-23CSFULLCSFULLKillSofia Shineset Piper Willinger·
4016-24CSFULLMIA OHServe errCal St. Fullerton·
4116-25MIA OHMIA OHKillSophia Stallworthset Molly Creech·

Score shown after each rally, Cal St. Fullerton first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).