Final · 4 setsSat, Aug 29, 2026

AwayBIG-WEST

1:3

HomeMAC

Miami (OH) def. Cal St. Fullerton 3–1

(23-25, 25-18, 25-3, 25-16)

Set	1	2	3	4	Sets
CSFULL	25	18	3	16	1
MIA OH	23	25	25	25	3

RallyIQ model

Win probability

MIA OH above 50 · CSFULL below

Biggest swing: 4.3% to Cal St. Fullerton — set 1, CSFULL 25-23 MIA OH. Cal St. Fullerton ace on Team. MIA OH win probability 92% → 88%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

CSFULL 2.9%97.1% MIA OH

Cal St. Fullerton wins

3-0

0.3%

3-1

0.8%

3-2

1.8%

Miami (OH) wins

3-0

62.8%

3-1

27.1%

3-2

7.3%

CSFULL break %: 35.2% vs this opp
MIA OH break %: 49.7% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
CSFULL serverAce+4.3%
Cal St. Fullerton ace on Team
Set 1 · CSFULL 25-23 MIA OH · CSFULL 8% → 12%
02
CSFULL serverAce+3.3%
Cal St. Fullerton ace on Chelsea Williams
Set 2 · CSFULL 12-8 MIA OH · CSFULL 21% → 24%
03
Molly CreechKill+3.1%
Kill by Molly Creech (set by Rachel Morgan)
Set 2 · CSFULL 16-16 MIA OH · MIA OH 81% → 84%
04
Lauren CoyneAttack error+3.0%
Lauren Coyne stuffed by Arianna Ellis & Emilia Graham
Set 2 · CSFULL 11-8 MIA OH · CSFULL 18% → 21%
05
Lauren CoyneKill+2.9%
Kill by Lauren Coyne (set by Holland Van Deusen)
Set 2 · CSFULL 14-13 MIA OH · MIA OH 79% → 82%
06
MIA OH serverService error+2.9%
Miami (OH) service error
Set 2 · CSFULL 16-14 MIA OH · CSFULL 19% → 22%
07
Sofia ShineAttack error+2.8%
Attack error by Sofia Shine
Set 2 · CSFULL 16-17 MIA OH · MIA OH 84% → 87%
08
Hannah HassKill+2.7%
Kill by Hannah Hass
Set 2 · CSFULL 14-11 MIA OH · CSFULL 20% → 23%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Cal St. Fullertonaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
14Arianna EllisOH	4	11	4	33	.212	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	1	12
5Bella RislingOH	4	8	7	35	.029	0	1	2	5	2	0	1	0.5	9.5
9Hannah HassMB	4	4	1	10	.300	1	0	0	2	0	1	1	1.5	5.5
12Italia BernalS	4	1	0	2	.500	22	2	2	13	0	0	0	0	3
15Kaieva ChristensenL/DS	4	0	1	2	-.500	2	2	2	8	3	0	0	0	2
13Emilia GrahamMB	4	0	1	2	-.500	0	0	2	0	0	0	3	1.5	1.5
3Sofia ShineOH	4	6	5	27	.037	0	0	0	2	0	0	1	0.5	6.5
11Mia FeldhausL/DS	4	0	1	3	-.333	2	2	0	10	2	0	0	0	2
7Jaiden MojicaS	4	1	1	2	.000	3	1	3	9	0	0	0	0	2
21Ava PondOH	1	2	1	3	.333	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	2
8Kaia HerwegL/DS	1	0	0	3	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2Parys TaylorOH	1	0	0	3	.000	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0
Team totals		33	22	125	.088	30	8	11	51	11	1	8	5	62

Miami (OH)home

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
6Molly CreechOH	4	20	2	46	.391	2	2	2	7	1	1	0	1	23
17Lauren CoyneOPP	4	10	2	21	.381	0	0	0	2	0	0	3	1.5	11.5
20Lindy RadaszewskiMB	4	8	1	13	.538	0	1	3	2	0	0	4	2	11
13Grace KreutzOH	4	0	1	5	-.200	0	5	0	16	0	0	0	0	5
18Holland Van DeusenS	4	0	1	1	-1.000	20	2	2	7	0	0	0	0	2
1Raegan LantzOH	4	0	0	4	.000	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	0
7Chelsea WilliamsOH	4	9	1	15	.533	0	0	0	2	1	0	1	0.5	9.5
16Piper WillingerS	4	0	0	1	.000	14	1	2	3	0	0	0	0	1
9Rachel MorganL/DS	4	0	0	0	–	5	0	0	13	1	0	0	0	0
4Sophia StallworthOH	3	3	0	6	.500	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	3.5
14Kamryn UtleyS	3	0	0	0	–	1	0	1	3	0	0	0	0	0
12Sydney WallerOPP	1	1	2	8	-.125	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.5	1.5
19Kendall BosseMB	1	0	1	1	-1.000	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
10Madison BrownS	1	0	0	0	–	2	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		51	11	121	.331	44	11	10	62	8	1	10	6	98

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 7 CSFULL · MIA OH 16

Set 1

25-23

Longest run 7 CSFULLMIA OH 3

Set 2

18-25

Longest run 4 CSFULLMIA OH 5

Set 3

3-25

Longest run 1 CSFULLMIA OH 16

Set 4

16-25

Longest run 2 CSFULLMIA OH 5

Bars above the line = Miami (OH) leads, below = Cal St. Fullerton leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Cal St. Fullerton

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	27%8/30	36%4/11
2	44%8/18	0%0/8
3	47%7/15	22%2/9
4	50%6/12	50%7/14
5	50%6/12	25%2/8
6	50%5/10	54%7/13
All	41%40/97	35%22/63

Miami (OH)

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	89%8/9	50%6/12
2	100%8/8	74%23/31
3	70%7/10	47%7/15
4	47%7/15	56%9/16
5	55%6/11	54%7/13
6	50%5/10	50%5/10
All	65%41/63	59%57/97

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

160 rallies

Rally log

#	CSFULL-MIA OH	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	CSFULL	CSFULL	Kill	Arianna Ellis	set Kaieva Christensen	+0.5
2	1-1	CSFULL	MIA OH	Attack err	Kaieva Christensen	blk Lauren Coyne	+0.3
3	2-1	MIA OH	CSFULL	Kill	Arianna Ellis	set Italia Bernal	+0.4
4	2-2	CSFULL	MIA OH×3	Kill	Lauren Coyne	set Holland Van Deusen	+0.3
5	2-3	MIA OH	MIA OH×3	Kill	Lauren Coyne		+0.4
6	2-4	MIA OH	MIA OH×3	Attack err	Hannah Hass		+0.3
7	3-4	MIA OH	CSFULL	Kill	Hannah Hass	set Italia Bernal	+0.3
8	4-4	CSFULL	CSFULL	Attack err	Lauren Coyne		+0.4
9	4-5	CSFULL	MIA OH	Kill	Molly Creech	set Holland Van Deusen	+0.3
10	5-5	MIA OH	CSFULL	Kill	Bella Risling	set Kaieva Christensen	+0.4
11	5-6	CSFULL	MIA OH	Kill	Molly Creech	set Kamryn Utley	+0.3
12	6-6	MIA OH	CSFULL	Serve err	MIA OH server		+0.4
13	6-7	CSFULL	MIA OH	Kill	Chelsea Williams	set Rachel Morgan	+0.3
14	7-7	MIA OH	CSFULL	Kill	Sofia Shine	set Italia Bernal	+0.4
15	8-7	CSFULL	CSFULL	Ace	CSFULL server	aced Rachel Morgan	+0.6
16	8-8	CSFULL	MIA OH	Serve err	CSFULL server		+0.4
17	8-9	MIA OH	MIA OH	Attack err	Sofia Shine		+0.5
18	9-9	MIA OH	CSFULL	Kill	Sofia Shine	set Italia Bernal	+0.4
19	9-10	CSFULL	MIA OH×3	Serve err	CSFULL server		+0.4
20	9-11	MIA OH	MIA OH×3	Ace	MIA OH server	aced Team	+0.5
21	9-12	MIA OH	MIA OH×3	Kill	Molly Creech	set Holland Van Deusen	+0.4
22	10-12	MIA OH	CSFULL	Attack err	Lindy Radaszewski		+0.3
23	10-13	CSFULL	MIA OH	Serve err	CSFULL server		+0.3
24	11-13	MIA OH	CSFULL	Attack err	Holland Van Deusen	blk Bella Risling, Hannah Hass	+0.3
25	11-14	CSFULL	MIA OH	Attack err	Bella Risling		+0.3
26	11-15	MIA OH	MIA OH	Kill	Sydney Waller	set Rachel Morgan	+0.3
27	12-15	MIA OH	CSFULL×7	Kill	Bella Risling	set Italia Bernal	+0.2
28	13-15	CSFULL	CSFULL×7	Attack err	Sydney Waller	blk Hannah Hass	+0.4
29	14-15	CSFULL	CSFULL×7	Ace	CSFULL server	aced Team	+0.6
30	15-15	CSFULL	CSFULL×7	Kill	Sofia Shine	set Mia Feldhaus	+0.8
31	16-15	CSFULL	CSFULL×7	Attack err	Molly Creech		+1.0
32	17-15	CSFULL	CSFULL×7	Attack err	Molly Creech		+1.3
33	18-15	CSFULL	CSFULL×7	Kill	Bella Risling	set Italia Bernal	+1.4
34	18-16	CSFULL	MIA OH	Serve err	CSFULL server		+0.8
35	18-17	MIA OH	MIA OH	Attack err	Sofia Shine		+1.2
36	19-17	MIA OH	CSFULL	Kill	Bella Risling	set Italia Bernal	+1.1
37	19-18	CSFULL	MIA OH	Kill	Chelsea Williams	set Madison Brown	+0.9
38	19-19	MIA OH	MIA OH	Kill	Lindy Radaszewski		+1.3
39	20-19	MIA OH	CSFULL	Attack err	Sydney Waller		+1.1
40	21-19	CSFULL	CSFULL	Ace	CSFULL server	aced Sydney Waller	+1.8
41	21-20	CSFULL	MIA OH	Kill	Lindy Radaszewski	set Madison Brown	+1.0
42	22-20	MIA OH	CSFULL	Kill	Arianna Ellis	set Italia Bernal	+1.6
43	22-21	CSFULL	MIA OH	Kill	Chelsea Williams	set Holland Van Deusen	+1.1
44	23-21	MIA OH	CSFULL	Kill	Arianna Ellis	set Italia Bernal	+1.8
45	23-22	CSFULL	MIA OH	Kill	Molly Creech	set Holland Van Deusen	+1.2
46	23-23	MIA OH	MIA OH	Kill	Molly Creech	set Holland Van Deusen	+2.3
47	24-23	MIA OH	CSFULL	Kill	Arianna Ellis	set Italia Bernal	+2.4
48	25-23	CSFULL	CSFULL	Ace	CSFULL server	aced Team	+4.3
Set 2
1	1-0	MIA OH	CSFULL	Serve err	MIA OH server		+1.1
2	1-1	CSFULL	MIA OH×4	Kill	Molly Creech	set Holland Van Deusen	+1.0
3	1-2	MIA OH	MIA OH×4	Kill	Molly Creech	set Holland Van Deusen	+1.2
4	1-3	MIA OH	MIA OH×4	Attack err	Arianna Ellis		+1.0
5	1-4	MIA OH	MIA OH×4	Kill	Lauren Coyne	set Holland Van Deusen	+0.8
6	2-4	MIA OH	CSFULL	Kill	Jaiden Mojica	set Hannah Hass	+0.7
7	2-5	CSFULL	MIA OH	Serve err	CSFULL server		+0.6
8	3-5	MIA OH	CSFULL	Serve err	MIA OH server		+0.7
9	3-6	CSFULL	MIA OH	Kill	Molly Creech	set Holland Van Deusen	+0.6
10	4-6	MIA OH	CSFULL	Attack err	Grace Kreutz		+0.7
11	4-7	CSFULL	MIA OH	Kill	Molly Creech	set Piper Willinger	+0.7
12	5-7	MIA OH	CSFULL×4	Kill	Sofia Shine	set Italia Bernal	+0.7
13	6-7	CSFULL	CSFULL×4	Kill	Bella Risling	set Italia Bernal	+1.3
14	7-7	CSFULL	CSFULL×4	Attack err	Kendall Bosse	blk Emilia Graham, Sofia Shine	+1.6
15	8-7	CSFULL	CSFULL×4	Kill	Bella Risling	set Mia Feldhaus	+2.1
16	8-8	CSFULL	MIA OH	Kill	Chelsea Williams	set Piper Willinger	+1.3
17	9-8	MIA OH	CSFULL×4	Kill	Arianna Ellis	set Italia Bernal	+1.7
18	10-8	CSFULL	CSFULL×4	Ace	CSFULL server	aced Team	+2.6
19	11-8	CSFULL	CSFULL×4	Attack err	Lauren Coyne	blk Arianna Ellis, Emilia Graham	+3.0
20	12-8	CSFULL	CSFULL×4	Ace	CSFULL server	aced Chelsea Williams	+3.3
21	12-9	CSFULL	MIA OH	Kill	Chelsea Williams	set Piper Willinger	+1.8
22	12-10	MIA OH	MIA OH	Attack err	Bella Risling		+2.7
23	13-10	MIA OH	CSFULL	Kill	Arianna Ellis	set Italia Bernal	+2.5
24	13-11	CSFULL	MIA OH	Kill	Chelsea Williams	set Holland Van Deusen	+1.9
25	14-11	MIA OH	CSFULL	Kill	Hannah Hass		+2.7
26	14-12	CSFULL	MIA OH	Bad set	Bella Risling		+2.0
27	14-13	MIA OH	MIA OH	Kill	Lauren Coyne	set Holland Van Deusen	+2.9
28	15-13	MIA OH	CSFULL	Serve err	MIA OH server		+2.7
29	15-14	CSFULL	MIA OH	Attack err	Bella Risling		+2.1
30	16-14	MIA OH	CSFULL	Serve err	MIA OH server		+2.9
31	16-15	CSFULL	MIA OH×5	Kill	Molly Creech	set Piper Willinger	+2.3
32	16-16	MIA OH	MIA OH×5	Kill	Molly Creech	set Rachel Morgan	+3.1
33	16-17	MIA OH	MIA OH×5	Attack err	Sofia Shine		+2.8
34	16-18	MIA OH	MIA OH×5	Attack err	Sofia Shine		+2.3
35	16-19	MIA OH	MIA OH×5	Ace	MIA OH server	aced Mia Feldhaus	+1.7
36	17-19	MIA OH	CSFULL	Serve err	MIA OH server		+1.1
37	17-20	CSFULL	MIA OH	Kill	Chelsea Williams	set Piper Willinger	+1.3
38	18-20	MIA OH	CSFULL	Serve err	MIA OH server		+1.2
39	18-21	CSFULL	MIA OH×5	Attack err	Arianna Ellis	blk Lindy Radaszewski, Chelsea Williams	+1.4
40	18-22	MIA OH	MIA OH×5	Attack err	Bella Risling		+1.2
41	18-23	MIA OH	MIA OH×5	Ace	MIA OH server	aced Kaieva Christensen	+0.5
42	18-24	MIA OH	MIA OH×5	Ace	MIA OH server	aced Kaieva Christensen	+0.2
43	18-25	MIA OH	MIA OH×5	Kill	Lindy Radaszewski	set Holland Van Deusen	+0.0
Set 3
1	0-1	CSFULL	MIA OH×16	Kill	Lindy Radaszewski	set Holland Van Deusen	+0.7
2	0-2	MIA OH	MIA OH×16	Attack err	Arianna Ellis	blk Molly Creech	+0.8
3	0-3	MIA OH	MIA OH×16	Attack err	Bella Risling		+0.7
4	0-4	MIA OH	MIA OH×16	Attack err	Bella Risling	blk Lindy Radaszewski, Lauren Coyne	+0.5
5	0-5	MIA OH	MIA OH×16	Kill	Molly Creech	set Holland Van Deusen	+0.4
6	0-6	MIA OH	MIA OH×16	Kill	Molly Creech	set Holland Van Deusen	+0.3
7	0-7	MIA OH	MIA OH×16	Kill	Lauren Coyne	set Rachel Morgan	+0.2
8	0-8	MIA OH	MIA OH×16	Ace	MIA OH server	aced Mia Feldhaus	+0.1
9	0-9	MIA OH	MIA OH×16	Ace	MIA OH server	aced Team	+0.1
10	0-10	MIA OH	MIA OH×16	Kill	Lindy Radaszewski		+0.1
11	0-11	MIA OH	MIA OH×16	Ace	MIA OH server	aced Bella Risling	+0.0
12	0-12	MIA OH	MIA OH×16	Kill	Molly Creech		+0.0
13	0-13	MIA OH	MIA OH×16	Kill	Lauren Coyne	set Kaieva Christensen	+0.0
14	0-14	MIA OH	MIA OH×16	Attack err	Emilia Graham		+0.0
15	0-15	MIA OH	MIA OH×16	Kill	Lindy Radaszewski	set Holland Van Deusen	+0.0
16	0-16	MIA OH	MIA OH×16	Kill	Lauren Coyne	set Holland Van Deusen	+0.0
17	1-16	MIA OH	CSFULL	Kill	Arianna Ellis	set Italia Bernal	+0.0
18	1-17	CSFULL	MIA OH	Kill	Lindy Radaszewski	set Holland Van Deusen	+0.0
19	1-18	MIA OH	MIA OH	Ace	MIA OH server	aced Parys Taylor	+0.0
20	2-18	MIA OH	CSFULL	Kill	Hannah Hass	set Italia Bernal	+0.0
21	2-19	CSFULL	MIA OH×5	Serve err	CSFULL server		+0.0
22	2-20	MIA OH	MIA OH×5	Kill	Molly Creech	set Piper Willinger	+0.0
23	2-21	MIA OH	MIA OH×5	Attack err	Bella Risling		+0.0
24	2-22	MIA OH	MIA OH×5	Kill	Sophia Stallworth	set Piper Willinger	+0.0
25	2-23	MIA OH	MIA OH×5	Kill	Molly Creech	set Piper Willinger	+0.0
26	3-23	MIA OH	CSFULL	Kill	Italia Bernal		+0.0
27	3-24	CSFULL	MIA OH	Bad set	Sofia Shine		+0.0
28	3-25	MIA OH	MIA OH	Attack err	Sofia Shine	blk Lindy Radaszewski, Sophia Stallworth	+0.0
Set 4
1	1-0	MIA OH	CSFULL	Serve err	MIA OH server		+0.7
2	1-1	CSFULL	MIA OH×4	Serve err	CSFULL server		+0.6
3	1-2	MIA OH	MIA OH×4	Ace	MIA OH server	aced Kaieva Christensen	+0.7
4	1-3	MIA OH	MIA OH×4	Kill	Lauren Coyne	set Rachel Morgan	+0.6
5	1-4	MIA OH	MIA OH×4	Attack err	Arianna Ellis		+0.5
6	2-4	MIA OH	CSFULL	Kill	Hannah Hass	set Italia Bernal	+0.4
7	2-5	CSFULL	MIA OH×3	Kill	Lauren Coyne	set Holland Van Deusen	+0.4
8	2-6	MIA OH	MIA OH×3	Attack err	Jaiden Mojica		+0.4
9	2-7	MIA OH	MIA OH×3	Kill	Lauren Coyne	set Italia Bernal	+0.3
10	3-7	MIA OH	CSFULL	Kill	Bella Risling	set Italia Bernal	+0.2
11	4-7	CSFULL	CSFULL	Kill	Bella Risling	set Italia Bernal	+0.4
12	4-8	CSFULL	MIA OH×5	Serve err	CSFULL server		+0.3
13	4-9	MIA OH	MIA OH×5	Kill	Molly Creech	set Piper Willinger	+0.3
14	4-10	MIA OH	MIA OH×5	Ace	MIA OH server	aced Bella Risling	+0.2
15	4-11	MIA OH	MIA OH×5	Attack err	Mia Feldhaus		+0.2
16	4-12	MIA OH	MIA OH×5	Kill	Molly Creech	set Piper Willinger	+0.1
17	5-12	MIA OH	CSFULL	Kill	Sofia Shine	set Jaiden Mojica	+0.1
18	6-12	CSFULL	CSFULL	Ace	CSFULL server	aced Team	+0.1
19	6-13	CSFULL	MIA OH	Kill	Sophia Stallworth	set Piper Willinger	+0.1
20	7-13	MIA OH	CSFULL	Kill	Ava Pond	set Jaiden Mojica	+0.1
21	8-13	CSFULL	CSFULL	Attack err	Chelsea Williams	blk Emilia Graham, Arianna Ellis	+0.2
22	8-14	CSFULL	MIA OH×4	Kill	Chelsea Williams	set Molly Creech	+0.2
23	8-15	MIA OH	MIA OH×4	Kill	Molly Creech	set Piper Willinger	+0.2
24	8-16	MIA OH	MIA OH×4	Kill	Lindy Radaszewski	set Piper Willinger	+0.1
25	8-17	MIA OH	MIA OH×4	Kill	Chelsea Williams	set Piper Willinger	+0.0
26	9-17	MIA OH	CSFULL	Kill	Arianna Ellis	set Italia Bernal	+0.0
27	9-18	CSFULL	MIA OH	Serve err	CSFULL server		+0.0
28	10-18	MIA OH	CSFULL	Kill	Arianna Ellis	set Italia Bernal	+0.0
29	10-19	CSFULL	MIA OH	Bad set	Italia Bernal		+0.0
30	11-19	MIA OH	CSFULL	Kill	Arianna Ellis	set Italia Bernal	+0.0
31	11-20	CSFULL	MIA OH	Serve err	CSFULL server		+0.0
32	12-20	MIA OH	CSFULL	Serve err	MIA OH server		+0.0
33	12-21	CSFULL	MIA OH	Kill	Molly Creech	set Holland Van Deusen	+0.0
34	13-21	MIA OH	CSFULL	Serve err	MIA OH server		+0.0
35	14-21	CSFULL	CSFULL	Ace	CSFULL server	aced Molly Creech	+0.0
36	14-22	CSFULL	MIA OH	Attack err	Ava Pond		+0.0
37	14-23	MIA OH	MIA OH	Ace	MIA OH server	aced Team	+0.0
38	15-23	MIA OH	CSFULL	Kill	Ava Pond	set Jaiden Mojica	+0.0
39	16-23	CSFULL	CSFULL	Kill	Sofia Shine	set Piper Willinger	+0.0
40	16-24	CSFULL	MIA OH	Serve err	CSFULL server		+0.0
41	16-25	MIA OH	MIA OH	Kill	Sophia Stallworth	set Molly Creech	+0.0

Score shown after each rally, Cal St. Fullerton first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.