Final · 4 setsFri, Sep 4, 2026

AwayBIG-TEN

1:3

HomeSEC

Mississippi St. def. Northwestern 3–1

(25-18, 16-25, 25-13, 25-18)

Set	1	2	3	4	Sets
NW	18	25	13	18	1
MISSST	25	16	25	25	3

RallyIQ model

Win probability

MISSST above 50 · NW below

Biggest swing: 3.0% to Northwestern — set 4, NW 10-10 MISSST. Kill by Isabella Bullington (set by Ellie Stiernagle). MISSST win probability 89% → 86%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

NW 24.3%75.7% MISSST

Northwestern wins

3-0

4.3%

3-1

8.3%

3-2

11.8%

Mississippi St. wins

3-0

27.6%

3-1

28.9%

3-2

19.2%

NW break %: 39.1% vs this opp
MISSST break %: 44.4% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Isabella BullingtonKill+3.0%
Kill by Isabella Bullington (set by Ellie Stiernagle)
Set 4 · NW 10-10 MISSST · NW 11% → 14%
02
Mara StiglicAttack error+3.0%
Attack error by Mara Stiglic
Set 4 · NW 11-13 MISSST · MISSST 88% → 91%
03
Noella ObiKill+2.8%
Kill by Noella Obi (set by Cayley Hanson)
Set 3 · NW 1-2 MISSST · MISSST 70% → 73%
04
Hayley SchaafKill+2.7%
Kill by Hayley Schaaf (set by Ellie Stiernagle)
Set 4 · NW 4-3 MISSST · NW 13% → 16%
05
Mara StiglicKill+2.7%
Kill by Mara Stiglic (set by Ellie Stiernagle)
Set 3 · NW 3-4 MISSST · NW 23% → 26%
06
Paloma RoutaboulKill+2.7%
Kill by Paloma Routaboul (set by Cayley Hanson)
Set 4 · NW 6-7 MISSST · MISSST 86% → 88%
07
Bernardita AguilarKill+2.6%
Kill by Bernardita Aguilar (set by McKenna Yates)
Set 3 · NW 1-3 MISSST · MISSST 73% → 76%
08
Lindsey MangelsonKill+2.6%
Kill by Lindsey Mangelson (set by Bernardita Aguilar)
Set 4 · NW 11-14 MISSST · MISSST 91% → 94%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Northwesternaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
12Mara StiglicOH	4	18	9	46	.196	0	0	7	0	0	1	0.5	18.5
22Isabella BullingtonOH	4	11	5	26	.231	0	4	5	1	0	0	0	11
17Maya StillwellMB	4	6	1	16	.313	0	0	1	0	1	0	1	7
25Campbell ParisOH	4	5	6	25	-.040	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	5
11Ellie StiernagleS	4	3	0	6	.500	45	1	8	0	0	2	1	4
2Drew WrightL/DS	4	0	0	0	–	2	3	12	2	0	0	0	0
9Hayley SchaafMB	4	9	2	15	.467	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	9.5
7Lauren DignanL/DS	4	1	0	1	1.000	1	0	10	0	0	0	0	1
23Gigi NavarreteL/DS	4	0	0	0	–	0	0	8	0	0	0	0	0
6Clara SchrammOH	2	0	2	2	-1.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
24Cate SchnellOH	2	0	0	0	–	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
8Gabrielle GerryMB	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
5Kaitlyn BodnarS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		53	25	137	.204	48	9	54	4	1	4	3	74

Mississippi St.home

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
3Lindsey MangelsonOH	4	17	3	34	.412	2	1	0	6	0	0	0	18
1Bernardita AguilarOH	4	15	3	33	.364	1	1	0	10	0	4	2	18
20Noella ObiOPP	4	8	2	15	.400	0	0	1	1	1	1	1.5	9.5
24Cayley HansonS	4	5	0	5	1.000	37	1	1	10	0	2	1	7
22Gha'Naye Whitfield-MossMB	4	2	2	17	.000	0	0	0	2	0	5	2.5	4.5
8Mary NealDS	4	0	0	1	.000	2	0	0	4	0	0	0	0
4McKenna YatesDS	4	0	0	0	–	3	0	3	14	0	0	0	0
10Paloma RoutaboulOH	3	4	1	12	.250	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	4
17Kyla ScharfmanDS	3	0	0	0	–	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	1
28Olivia StantOH	2	1	2	5	-.200	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	1
13Sydnie WallerOH	2	0	0	1	.000	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0
21Ava AndersonMB	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		52	13	123	.317	45	4	6	51	1	12	7	91

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 5 NW · MISSST 8

Set 1

18-25

Longest run 4 NWMISSST 8

Set 2

25-16

Longest run 5 NWMISSST 3

Set 3

13-25

Longest run 2 NWMISSST 5

Set 4

18-25

Longest run 2 NWMISSST 4

Bars above the line = Mississippi St. leads, below = Northwestern leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Northwestern

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	75%9/12	46%6/13
2	43%9/21	25%3/12
3	42%8/19	40%6/15
4	62%8/13	38%5/13
5	44%7/16	27%3/11
6	67%6/9	36%4/11
All	52%47/90	36%27/75

Mississippi St.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	60%9/15	27%3/11
2	82%9/11	59%13/22
3	50%9/18	50%9/18
4	80%8/10	47%7/15
5	78%7/9	42%5/12
6	50%6/12	50%6/12
All	64%48/75	48%43/90

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

165 rallies

Rally log

#	NW-MISSST	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	MISSST	NW	Kill	Mara Stiglic	set Ellie Stiernagle	+1.5
2	1-1	NW	MISSST×8	Kill	Lindsey Mangelson	set Cayley Hanson	+1.4
3	1-2	MISSST	MISSST×8	Attack err	Campbell Paris	blk Bernardita Aguilar, Gha'Naye Whitfield-Moss	+1.9
4	1-3	MISSST	MISSST×8	Kill	Bernardita Aguilar	set McKenna Yates	+1.8
5	1-4	MISSST	MISSST×8	Kill	Gha'Naye Whitfield-Moss	set Cayley Hanson	+1.6
6	1-5	MISSST	MISSST×8	Attack err	Mara Stiglic		+1.4
7	1-6	MISSST	MISSST×8	Ace	MISSST server	aced Drew Wright	+1.2
8	1-7	MISSST	MISSST×8	Kill	Lindsey Mangelson	set Cayley Hanson	+1.0
9	1-8	MISSST	MISSST×8	Attack err	Mara Stiglic		+0.8
10	2-8	MISSST	NW	Kill	Mara Stiglic	set Ellie Stiernagle	+0.5
11	2-9	NW	MISSST×3	Attack err	Campbell Paris		+0.5
12	2-10	MISSST	MISSST×3	Bad set	Clara Schramm		+0.6
13	2-11	MISSST	MISSST×3	Kill	Bernardita Aguilar		+0.4
14	3-11	MISSST	NW×4	Kill	Maya Stillwell	set Ellie Stiernagle	+0.2
15	4-11	NW	NW×4	Attack err	Gha'Naye Whitfield-Moss		+0.4
16	5-11	NW	NW×4	Attack err	Bernardita Aguilar		+0.6
17	6-11	NW	NW×4	Kill	Isabella Bullington	set Ellie Stiernagle	+0.8
18	6-12	NW	MISSST	Attack err	Clara Schramm		+0.7
19	7-12	MISSST	NW	Serve err	MISSST server		+0.6
20	7-13	NW	MISSST×3	Kill	Noella Obi	set Cayley Hanson	+0.7
21	7-14	MISSST	MISSST×3	Attack err	Hayley Schaaf		+0.7
22	7-15	MISSST	MISSST×3	Kill	Olivia Stant	set Cayley Hanson	+0.5
23	8-15	MISSST	NW	Kill	Hayley Schaaf	set Ellie Stiernagle	+0.2
24	8-16	NW	MISSST	Serve err	NW server		+0.3
25	9-16	MISSST	NW×3	Kill	Mara Stiglic	set Ellie Stiernagle	+0.2
26	10-16	NW	NW×3	Attack err	Noella Obi	blk Maya Stillwell	+0.5
27	11-16	NW	NW×3	Attack err	Lindsey Mangelson		+0.7
28	11-17	NW	MISSST	Attack err	Mara Stiglic	blk Noella Obi, Cayley Hanson	+0.7
29	12-17	MISSST	NW×3	Kill	Mara Stiglic	set Ellie Stiernagle	+0.5
30	13-17	NW	NW×3	Kill	Campbell Paris	set Drew Wright	+1.0
31	14-17	NW	NW×3	Kill	Mara Stiglic	set Ellie Stiernagle	+1.5
32	14-18	NW	MISSST	Kill	Lindsey Mangelson	set Cayley Hanson	+1.3
33	14-19	MISSST	MISSST	Attack err	Mara Stiglic	blk Gha'Naye Whitfield-Moss, Bernardita Aguilar	+1.3
34	15-19	MISSST	NW	Kill	Maya Stillwell	set Ellie Stiernagle	+0.7
35	15-20	NW	MISSST×3	Kill	Lindsey Mangelson	set Cayley Hanson	+0.9
36	15-21	MISSST	MISSST×3	Ace	MISSST server	aced Isabella Bullington	+0.7
37	15-22	MISSST	MISSST×3	Attack err	Isabella Bullington	blk Gha'Naye Whitfield-Moss, Bernardita Aguilar	+0.4
38	16-22	MISSST	NW	Attack err	Gha'Naye Whitfield-Moss		+0.1
39	16-23	NW	MISSST	Kill	Bernardita Aguilar	set Cayley Hanson	+0.2
40	17-23	MISSST	NW	Kill	Campbell Paris	set Ellie Stiernagle	+0.1
41	17-24	NW	MISSST	Kill	Noella Obi	set Cayley Hanson	+0.1
42	18-24	MISSST	NW	Kill	Ellie Stiernagle		+0.0
43	18-25	NW	MISSST	Serve err	NW server		+0.0
Set 2
1	0-1	NW	MISSST	Attack err	Isabella Bullington		+1.0
2	0-2	MISSST	MISSST	Kill	Gha'Naye Whitfield-Moss	set Cayley Hanson	+1.4
3	1-2	MISSST	NW	Kill	Campbell Paris	set Ellie Stiernagle	+1.0
4	1-3	NW	MISSST	Kill	Bernardita Aguilar	set Cayley Hanson	+1.0
5	2-3	MISSST	NW×5	Kill	Hayley Schaaf	set Ellie Stiernagle	+1.0
6	3-3	NW	NW×5	Attack err	Olivia Stant		+1.6
7	4-3	NW	NW×5	Kill	Isabella Bullington	set Ellie Stiernagle	+1.8
8	5-3	NW	NW×5	Attack err	Bernardita Aguilar		+1.9
9	6-3	NW	NW×5	Attack err	Olivia Stant		+1.9
10	6-4	NW	MISSST	Kill	Bernardita Aguilar	set Cayley Hanson	+1.2
11	6-5	MISSST	MISSST	Kill	Cayley Hanson	set Ellie Stiernagle	+1.8
12	7-5	MISSST	NW	Kill	Hayley Schaaf	set Ellie Stiernagle	+1.4
13	8-5	NW	NW	Kill	Hayley Schaaf	set Ellie Stiernagle	+2.0
14	8-6	NW	MISSST	Kill	Noella Obi	set Lindsey Mangelson	+1.3
15	9-6	MISSST	NW	Kill	Hayley Schaaf	set Ellie Stiernagle	+1.5
16	9-7	NW	MISSST	Kill	Cayley Hanson	set Lauren Dignan	+1.3
17	10-7	MISSST	NW×4	Kill	Mara Stiglic	set Ellie Stiernagle	+1.6
18	11-7	NW	NW×4	Attack err	Lindsey Mangelson		+2.1
19	12-7	NW	NW×4	Kill	Mara Stiglic	set Ellie Stiernagle	+1.9
20	13-7	NW	NW×4	Kill	Mara Stiglic	set Ellie Stiernagle	+1.7
21	13-8	NW	MISSST	Kill	Lindsey Mangelson	set Cayley Hanson	+0.9
22	14-8	MISSST	NW	Kill	Mara Stiglic	set Ellie Stiernagle	+1.2
23	15-8	NW	NW	Kill	Campbell Paris	set Ellie Stiernagle	+1.3
24	15-9	NW	MISSST	Kill	Lindsey Mangelson	set Cayley Hanson	+0.6
25	16-9	MISSST	NW	Serve err	MISSST server		+0.9
26	16-10	NW	MISSST	Kill	Bernardita Aguilar	set Cayley Hanson	+0.6
27	17-10	MISSST	NW	Kill	Isabella Bullington	set Ellie Stiernagle	+0.9
28	17-11	NW	MISSST	Kill	Bernardita Aguilar	set Cayley Hanson	+0.5
29	18-11	MISSST	NW	Serve err	MISSST server		+0.8
30	18-12	NW	MISSST	Kill	Bernardita Aguilar	set Cayley Hanson	+0.5
31	19-12	MISSST	NW×3	Kill	Hayley Schaaf	set Ellie Stiernagle	+0.8
32	20-12	NW	NW×3	Kill	Mara Stiglic	set Drew Wright	+0.7
33	21-12	NW	NW×3	Kill	Mara Stiglic	set Ellie Stiernagle	+0.3
34	21-13	NW	MISSST	Serve err	NW server		+0.1
35	22-13	MISSST	NW	Kill	Mara Stiglic	set Ellie Stiernagle	+0.2
36	22-14	NW	MISSST×3	Kill	Lindsey Mangelson	set Cayley Hanson	+0.1
37	22-15	MISSST	MISSST×3	Ace	MISSST server	aced Team	+0.1
38	22-16	MISSST	MISSST×3	Kill	Lindsey Mangelson	set Mary Neal	+0.3
39	23-16	MISSST	NW×3	Kill	Maya Stillwell	set Ellie Stiernagle	+0.4
40	24-16	NW	NW×3	Kill	Isabella Bullington	set Ellie Stiernagle	+0.2
41	25-16	NW	NW×3	Kill	Maya Stillwell	set Ellie Stiernagle	+0.0
Set 3
1	1-0	MISSST	NW	Kill	Mara Stiglic	set Lauren Dignan	+2.2
2	1-1	NW	MISSST×4	Kill	Bernardita Aguilar	set McKenna Yates	+2.1
3	1-2	MISSST	MISSST×4	Kill	Noella Obi	set Cayley Hanson	+2.8
4	1-3	MISSST	MISSST×4	Kill	Bernardita Aguilar	set McKenna Yates	+2.6
5	1-4	MISSST	MISSST×4	Attack err	Hayley Schaaf		+2.4
6	2-4	MISSST	NW	Bad set	Cayley Hanson		+1.7
7	3-4	NW	NW	Kill	Mara Stiglic	set Ellie Stiernagle	+2.7
8	3-5	NW	MISSST×4	Serve err	NW server		+2.0
9	3-6	MISSST	MISSST×4	Ace	MISSST server	aced Drew Wright	+2.5
10	3-7	MISSST	MISSST×4	Attack err	Mara Stiglic		+2.2
11	3-8	MISSST	MISSST×4	Kill	Cayley Hanson	set Ellie Stiernagle	+1.8
12	4-8	MISSST	NW	Kill	Mara Stiglic	set Ellie Stiernagle	+1.2
13	5-8	NW	NW	Attack err	Bernardita Aguilar	blk Mara Stiglic, Ellie Stiernagle	+2.0
14	5-9	NW	MISSST	Kill	Paloma Routaboul	set Cayley Hanson	+1.6
15	6-9	MISSST	NW	Kill	Mara Stiglic	set Ellie Stiernagle	+1.5
16	7-9	NW	NW	Attack err	Lindsey Mangelson		+2.5
17	7-10	NW	MISSST	Kill	Noella Obi	set Cayley Hanson	+2.0
18	8-10	MISSST	NW	Kill	Isabella Bullington	set Ellie Stiernagle	+1.9
19	8-11	NW	MISSST	Kill	Lindsey Mangelson	set Cayley Hanson	+2.0
20	8-12	MISSST	MISSST	Attack err	Isabella Bullington		+2.4
21	9-12	MISSST	NW	Kill	Isabella Bullington	set Ellie Stiernagle	+1.5
22	9-13	NW	MISSST	Kill	Bernardita Aguilar	set Cayley Hanson	+1.7
23	9-14	MISSST	MISSST	Attack err	Isabella Bullington		+1.9
24	10-14	MISSST	NW	Attack err	Paloma Routaboul	blk Hayley Schaaf, Ellie Stiernagle	+1.1
25	10-15	NW	MISSST	Serve err	NW server		+1.4
26	11-15	MISSST	NW	Kill	Hayley Schaaf	set Ellie Stiernagle	+1.1
27	11-16	NW	MISSST	Kill	Bernardita Aguilar	set Cayley Hanson	+1.4
28	11-17	MISSST	MISSST	Kill	Bernardita Aguilar	set Cayley Hanson	+1.4
29	12-17	MISSST	NW	Bad set	Lindsey Mangelson		+0.7
30	12-18	NW	MISSST×5	Kill	Cayley Hanson		+0.9
31	12-19	MISSST	MISSST×5	Kill	Cayley Hanson		+0.8
32	12-20	MISSST	MISSST×5	Attack err	Campbell Paris		+0.4
33	12-21	MISSST	MISSST×5	Attack err	Maya Stillwell	blk Noella Obi	+0.2
34	12-22	MISSST	MISSST×5	Attack err	Campbell Paris		+0.1
35	13-22	MISSST	NW	Attack err	Noella Obi		+0.0
36	13-23	NW	MISSST×3	Kill	Lindsey Mangelson	set Cayley Hanson	+0.0
37	13-24	MISSST	MISSST×3	Kill	Lindsey Mangelson	set Mary Neal	+0.0
38	13-25	MISSST	MISSST×3	Kill	Bernardita Aguilar	set Cayley Hanson	+0.0
Set 4
1	1-0	NW	NW	Kill	Lauren Dignan	set Ellie Stiernagle	+2.5
2	1-1	NW	MISSST	Kill	Noella Obi	set Cayley Hanson	+1.7
3	2-1	MISSST	NW	Kill	Isabella Bullington	set Ellie Stiernagle	+1.9
4	2-2	NW	MISSST	Kill	Lindsey Mangelson	set Cayley Hanson	+1.7
5	2-3	MISSST	MISSST	Attack err	Isabella Bullington		+2.4
6	3-3	MISSST	NW	Kill	Hayley Schaaf	set Ellie Stiernagle	+1.8
7	4-3	NW	NW	Kill	Hayley Schaaf	set Ellie Stiernagle	+2.7
8	4-4	NW	MISSST	Serve err	NW server		+1.8
9	5-4	MISSST	NW	Kill	Mara Stiglic	set Ellie Stiernagle	+2.0
10	5-5	NW	MISSST	Serve err	NW server		+1.9
11	6-5	MISSST	NW	Kill	Ellie Stiernagle	set Ellie Stiernagle	+2.1
12	6-6	NW	MISSST×3	Attack err	Mara Stiglic	blk Gha'Naye Whitfield-Moss, Bernardita Aguilar	+1.9
13	6-7	MISSST	MISSST×3	Kill	Paloma Routaboul	set Cayley Hanson	+2.7
14	6-8	MISSST	MISSST×3	Attack err	Campbell Paris		+2.5
15	7-8	MISSST	NW	Kill	Maya Stillwell	set Mara Stiglic	+1.8
16	7-9	NW	MISSST	Kill	Paloma Routaboul	set Cayley Hanson	+1.8
17	8-9	MISSST	NW	Kill	Isabella Bullington	set Ellie Stiernagle	+1.8
18	8-10	NW	MISSST	Kill	Lindsey Mangelson	set Cayley Hanson	+1.9
19	9-10	MISSST	NW	Kill	Campbell Paris	set Ellie Stiernagle	+1.9
20	10-10	NW	NW	Kill	Isabella Bullington	set Ellie Stiernagle	+3.0
21	10-11	NW	MISSST	Kill	Noella Obi	set Cayley Hanson	+2.1
22	11-11	MISSST	NW	Serve err	MISSST server		+2.3
23	11-12	NW	MISSST×3	Kill	Lindsey Mangelson	set Cayley Hanson	+2.2
24	11-13	MISSST	MISSST×3	Attack err	Mara Stiglic		+3.0
25	11-14	MISSST	MISSST×3	Kill	Lindsey Mangelson	set Bernardita Aguilar	+2.6
26	12-14	MISSST	NW	Kill	Mara Stiglic	set Ellie Stiernagle	+1.7
27	12-15	NW	MISSST	Attack err	Mara Stiglic	blk Cayley Hanson, Gha'Naye Whitfield-Moss	+1.9
28	12-16	MISSST	MISSST	Kill	Lindsey Mangelson	set Cayley Hanson	+2.2
29	13-16	MISSST	NW	Kill	Ellie Stiernagle	set McKenna Yates	+1.3
30	13-17	NW	MISSST×4	Serve err	NW server		+1.6
31	13-18	MISSST	MISSST×4	Attack err	Mara Stiglic		+1.6
32	13-19	MISSST	MISSST×4	Attack err	Campbell Paris		+1.1
33	13-20	MISSST	MISSST×4	Kill	Paloma Routaboul	set Cayley Hanson	+0.6
34	14-20	MISSST	NW	Serve err	MISSST server		+0.2
35	15-20	NW	NW	Kill	Isabella Bullington	set Ellie Stiernagle	+0.6
36	15-21	NW	MISSST	Kill	Bernardita Aguilar	set Lindsey Mangelson	+0.6
37	16-21	MISSST	NW	Kill	Maya Stillwell	set Ellie Stiernagle	+0.3
38	16-22	NW	MISSST	Kill	Noella Obi	set Cayley Hanson	+0.5
39	16-23	MISSST	MISSST	Attack err	Clara Schramm		+0.3
40	17-23	MISSST	NW	Kill	Isabella Bullington	set Ellie Stiernagle	+0.1
41	17-24	NW	MISSST	Kill	Lindsey Mangelson	set Cayley Hanson	+0.1
42	18-24	MISSST	NW	Serve err	MISSST server		+0.0
43	18-25	NW	MISSST	Serve err	NW server		+0.1

Score shown after each rally, Northwestern first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.