Mississippi State def. Northwestern 3-1 Volleyball (Sep 4)

Final · 4 setsFri, Sep 4, 2026

1:3

Mississippi St. beat visiting Northwestern 3-1 (25-18, 16-25, 25-13, 25-18) on Fri, Sep 4, 2026. Lindsey Mangelson led Mississippi St. with 17 kills; Northwestern's Mara Stiglic had a match-high 18.

Data through Nov 3, 3:00 PM CT · final Sep 4

Set	1	2	3	4	Sets
NW	18	25	13	18	1
MISSST	25	16	25	25	3

Win probability

Mississippi St. above 50 · Northwestern below

Biggest swing: 2.1% to Northwestern — set 4, NW 10-10 MISSST. Kill by Isabella Bullington (set by Ellie Stiernagle). MISSST win probability 94% → 92%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

NW 11.0%89.0% MISSST

Northwestern wins

3-0

1.5%

3-1

3.4%

3-2

6.1%

Mississippi St. wins

3-0

42.8%

3-1

31.6%

3-2

14.6%

NW break %: 36.9% vs this opp
MISSST break %: 46.3% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

01
Isabella BullingtonKill+2.1%
Kill by Isabella Bullington (set by Ellie Stiernagle)
Set 4 · NW 10-10 MISSST · NW 6% → 8%
02
Noella ObiKill+2.0%
Kill by Noella Obi (set by Cayley Hanson)
Set 3 · NW 1-2 MISSST · MISSST 83% → 85%
03
Mara StiglicAttack error+1.9%
Attack error by Mara Stiglic
Set 4 · NW 11-13 MISSST · MISSST 93% → 95%
04
Hayley SchaafKill+1.9%
Kill by Hayley Schaaf (set by Ellie Stiernagle)
Set 4 · NW 4-3 MISSST · NW 7% → 9%
05
Mara StiglicKill+1.9%
Kill by Mara Stiglic (set by Ellie Stiernagle)
Set 3 · NW 3-4 MISSST · NW 13% → 15%
06
Bernardita AguilarKill+1.8%
Kill by Bernardita Aguilar (set by McKenna Yates)
Set 3 · NW 1-3 MISSST · MISSST 85% → 87%
07
Paloma RoutaboulKill+1.8%
Kill by Paloma Routaboul (set by Cayley Hanson)
Set 4 · NW 6-7 MISSST · MISSST 92% → 93%
08
Lindsey MangelsonAttack error+1.7%
Attack error by Lindsey Mangelson
Set 3 · NW 7-9 MISSST · NW 11% → 13%

Box score

Official NCAA box

Northwesternaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
12Mara StiglicOH	4	18	9	46	.196	0	0	7	0	0	1	0.5	18.5
22Isabella BullingtonOH	4	11	5	26	.231	0	4	5	1	0	0	0	11
17Maya StillwellMB	4	6	1	16	.313	0	0	1	0	1	0	1	7
25Campbell ParisOH	4	5	6	25	-.040	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	5
11Ellie StiernagleS	4	3	0	6	.500	45	1	8	0	0	2	1	4
2Drew WrightL/DS	4	0	0	0	–	2	3	12	2	0	0	0	0
9Hayley SchaafMB	4	9	2	15	.467	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	9.5
7Lauren DignanL/DS	4	1	0	1	1.000	1	0	10	0	0	0	0	1
23Gigi NavarreteL/DS	4	0	0	0	–	0	0	8	0	0	0	0	0
6Clara SchrammOH	2	0	2	2	-1.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
24Cate SchnellOH	2	0	0	0	–	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
8Gabrielle GerryMB	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
5Kaitlyn BodnarS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		53	25	137	.204	48	9	54	4	1	4	3	74

Mississippi St.home

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
3Lindsey MangelsonOH	4	17	3	34	.412	2	1	0	6	0	0	0	18
1Bernardita AguilarOH	4	15	3	33	.364	1	1	0	10	0	4	2	18
20Noella ObiOPP	4	8	2	15	.400	0	0	1	1	1	1	1.5	9.5
24Cayley HansonS	4	5	0	5	1.000	37	1	1	10	0	2	1	7
22Gha'Naye Whitfield-MossMB	4	2	2	17	.000	0	0	0	2	0	5	2.5	4.5
8Mary NealDS	4	0	0	1	.000	2	0	0	4	0	0	0	0
4McKenna YatesDS	4	0	0	0	–	3	0	3	14	0	0	0	0
10Paloma RoutaboulOH	3	4	1	12	.250	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	4
17Kyla ScharfmanDS	3	0	0	0	–	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	1
28Olivia StantOH	2	1	2	5	-.200	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	1
13Sydnie WallerOH	2	0	0	1	.000	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0
21Ava AndersonMB	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		52	13	123	.317	45	4	6	51	1	12	7	91

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 5 NW · MISSST 8

Set 1

18-25

Longest run 4 NWMISSST 8

Set 2

25-16

Longest run 5 NWMISSST 3

Set 3

13-25

Longest run 2 NWMISSST 5

Set 4

18-25

Longest run 2 NWMISSST 4

Bars above the line = Mississippi St. leads, below = Northwestern leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Northwestern

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	75%9/12	46%6/13
2	43%9/21	25%3/12
3	42%8/19	40%6/15
4	62%8/13	38%5/13
5	44%7/16	27%3/11
6	67%6/9	36%4/11
All	52%47/90	36%27/75

Mississippi St.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	60%9/15	27%3/11
2	82%9/11	59%13/22
3	50%9/18	50%9/18
4	80%8/10	47%7/15
5	78%7/9	42%5/12
6	50%6/12	50%6/12
All	64%48/75	48%43/90

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

165 rallies

#	NW-MISSST	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	MISSST	NW	Kill	Mara Stiglic	set Ellie Stiernagle	+0.9
2	1-1	NW	MISSST×8	Kill	Lindsey Mangelson	set Cayley Hanson	+0.8
3	1-2	MISSST	MISSST×8	Blocked	Campbell Paris	blk Bernardita Aguilar, Gha'Naye Whitfield-Moss	+1.1
4	1-3	MISSST	MISSST×8	Kill	Bernardita Aguilar	set McKenna Yates	+1.0
5	1-4	MISSST	MISSST×8	Kill	Gha'Naye Whitfield-Moss	set Cayley Hanson	+0.9
6	1-5	MISSST	MISSST×8	Attack err	Mara Stiglic		+0.7
7	1-6	MISSST	MISSST×8	Ace	Mississippi St.	aced Drew Wright	+0.6
8	1-7	MISSST	MISSST×8	Kill	Lindsey Mangelson	set Cayley Hanson	+0.4
9	1-8	MISSST	MISSST×8	Attack err	Mara Stiglic		+0.3
10	2-8	MISSST	NW	Kill	Mara Stiglic	set Ellie Stiernagle	+0.2
11	2-9	NW	MISSST×3	Attack err	Campbell Paris		+0.2
12	2-10	MISSST	MISSST×3	Bad set	Clara Schramm		+0.2
13	2-11	MISSST	MISSST×3	Kill	Bernardita Aguilar		+0.2
14	3-11	MISSST	NW×4	Kill	Maya Stillwell	set Ellie Stiernagle	+0.1
15	4-11	NW	NW×4	Attack err	Gha'Naye Whitfield-Moss		+0.2
16	5-11	NW	NW×4	Attack err	Bernardita Aguilar		+0.3
17	6-11	NW	NW×4	Kill	Isabella Bullington	set Ellie Stiernagle	+0.4
18	6-12	NW	MISSST	Attack err	Clara Schramm		+0.3
19	7-12	MISSST	NW	Serve err	Mississippi St.		+0.3
20	7-13	NW	MISSST×3	Kill	Noella Obi	set Cayley Hanson	+0.3
21	7-14	MISSST	MISSST×3	Attack err	Hayley Schaaf		+0.3
22	7-15	MISSST	MISSST×3	Kill	Olivia Stant	set Cayley Hanson	+0.2
23	8-15	MISSST	NW	Kill	Hayley Schaaf	set Ellie Stiernagle	+0.1
24	8-16	NW	MISSST	Serve err	Northwestern		+0.1
25	9-16	MISSST	NW×3	Kill	Mara Stiglic	set Ellie Stiernagle	+0.1
26	10-16	NW	NW×3	Blocked	Noella Obi	blk Maya Stillwell	+0.2
27	11-16	NW	NW×3	Attack err	Lindsey Mangelson		+0.3
28	11-17	NW	MISSST	Blocked	Mara Stiglic	blk Noella Obi, Cayley Hanson	+0.3
29	12-17	MISSST	NW×3	Kill	Mara Stiglic	set Ellie Stiernagle	+0.2
30	13-17	NW	NW×3	Kill	Campbell Paris	set Drew Wright	+0.5
31	14-17	NW	NW×3	Kill	Mara Stiglic	set Ellie Stiernagle	+0.8
32	14-18	NW	MISSST	Kill	Lindsey Mangelson	set Cayley Hanson	+0.7
33	14-19	MISSST	MISSST	Blocked	Mara Stiglic	blk Gha'Naye Whitfield-Moss, Bernardita Aguilar	+0.7
34	15-19	MISSST	NW	Kill	Maya Stillwell	set Ellie Stiernagle	+0.3
35	15-20	NW	MISSST×3	Kill	Lindsey Mangelson	set Cayley Hanson	+0.5
36	15-21	MISSST	MISSST×3	Ace	Mississippi St.	aced Isabella Bullington	+0.4
37	15-22	MISSST	MISSST×3	Blocked	Isabella Bullington	blk Gha'Naye Whitfield-Moss, Bernardita Aguilar	+0.2
38	16-22	MISSST	NW	Attack err	Gha'Naye Whitfield-Moss		·
39	16-23	NW	MISSST	Kill	Bernardita Aguilar	set Cayley Hanson	+0.1
40	17-23	MISSST	NW	Kill	Campbell Paris	set Ellie Stiernagle	·
41	17-24	NW	MISSST	Kill	Noella Obi	set Cayley Hanson	·
42	18-24	MISSST	NW	Kill	Ellie Stiernagle		·
43	18-25	NW	MISSST	Serve err	Northwestern		·
Set 2
1	0-1	NW	MISSST	Attack err	Isabella Bullington		+0.5
2	0-2	MISSST	MISSST	Kill	Gha'Naye Whitfield-Moss	set Cayley Hanson	+0.7
3	1-2	MISSST	NW	Kill	Campbell Paris	set Ellie Stiernagle	+0.5
4	1-3	NW	MISSST	Kill	Bernardita Aguilar	set Cayley Hanson	+0.5
5	2-3	MISSST	NW×5	Kill	Hayley Schaaf	set Ellie Stiernagle	+0.5
6	3-3	NW	NW×5	Attack err	Olivia Stant		+0.8
7	4-3	NW	NW×5	Kill	Isabella Bullington	set Ellie Stiernagle	+1.0
8	5-3	NW	NW×5	Attack err	Bernardita Aguilar		+1.1
9	6-3	NW	NW×5	Attack err	Olivia Stant		+1.2
10	6-4	NW	MISSST	Kill	Bernardita Aguilar	set Cayley Hanson	+0.7
11	6-5	MISSST	MISSST	Kill	Cayley Hanson	set Ellie Stiernagle	+1.0
12	7-5	MISSST	NW	Kill	Hayley Schaaf	set Ellie Stiernagle	+0.9
13	8-5	NW	NW	Kill	Hayley Schaaf	set Ellie Stiernagle	+1.3
14	8-6	NW	MISSST	Kill	Noella Obi	set Lindsey Mangelson	+0.8
15	9-6	MISSST	NW	Kill	Hayley Schaaf	set Ellie Stiernagle	+1.0
16	9-7	NW	MISSST	Kill	Cayley Hanson	set Lauren Dignan	+0.8
17	10-7	MISSST	NW×4	Kill	Mara Stiglic	set Ellie Stiernagle	+1.0
18	11-7	NW	NW×4	Attack err	Lindsey Mangelson		+1.4
19	12-7	NW	NW×4	Kill	Mara Stiglic	set Ellie Stiernagle	+1.3
20	13-7	NW	NW×4	Kill	Mara Stiglic	set Ellie Stiernagle	+1.2
21	13-8	NW	MISSST	Kill	Lindsey Mangelson	set Cayley Hanson	+0.6
22	14-8	MISSST	NW	Kill	Mara Stiglic	set Ellie Stiernagle	+0.9
23	15-8	NW	NW	Kill	Campbell Paris	set Ellie Stiernagle	+1.0
24	15-9	NW	MISSST	Kill	Lindsey Mangelson	set Cayley Hanson	+0.5
25	16-9	MISSST	NW	Serve err	Mississippi St.		+0.7
26	16-10	NW	MISSST	Kill	Bernardita Aguilar	set Cayley Hanson	+0.4
27	17-10	MISSST	NW	Kill	Isabella Bullington	set Ellie Stiernagle	+0.7
28	17-11	NW	MISSST	Kill	Bernardita Aguilar	set Cayley Hanson	+0.4
29	18-11	MISSST	NW	Serve err	Mississippi St.		+0.7
30	18-12	NW	MISSST	Kill	Bernardita Aguilar	set Cayley Hanson	+0.4
31	19-12	MISSST	NW×3	Kill	Hayley Schaaf	set Ellie Stiernagle	+0.6
32	20-12	NW	NW×3	Kill	Mara Stiglic	set Drew Wright	+0.6
33	21-12	NW	NW×3	Kill	Mara Stiglic	set Ellie Stiernagle	+0.3
34	21-13	NW	MISSST	Serve err	Northwestern		+0.1
35	22-13	MISSST	NW	Kill	Mara Stiglic	set Ellie Stiernagle	+0.2
36	22-14	NW	MISSST×3	Kill	Lindsey Mangelson	set Cayley Hanson	·
37	22-15	MISSST	MISSST×3	Ace	Mississippi St.		+0.1
38	22-16	MISSST	MISSST×3	Kill	Lindsey Mangelson	set Mary Neal	+0.2
39	23-16	MISSST	NW×3	Kill	Maya Stillwell	set Ellie Stiernagle	+0.3
40	24-16	NW	NW×3	Kill	Isabella Bullington	set Ellie Stiernagle	+0.1
41	25-16	NW	NW×3	Kill	Maya Stillwell	set Ellie Stiernagle	·
Set 3
1	1-0	MISSST	NW	Kill	Mara Stiglic	set Lauren Dignan	+1.7
2	1-1	NW	MISSST×4	Kill	Bernardita Aguilar	set McKenna Yates	+1.5
3	1-2	MISSST	MISSST×4	Kill	Noella Obi	set Cayley Hanson	+2.0
4	1-3	MISSST	MISSST×4	Kill	Bernardita Aguilar	set McKenna Yates	+1.8
5	1-4	MISSST	MISSST×4	Attack err	Hayley Schaaf		+1.5
6	2-4	MISSST	NW	Bad set	Cayley Hanson		+1.1
7	3-4	NW	NW	Kill	Mara Stiglic	set Ellie Stiernagle	+1.9
8	3-5	NW	MISSST×4	Serve err	Northwestern		+1.3
9	3-6	MISSST	MISSST×4	Ace	Mississippi St.	aced Drew Wright	+1.6
10	3-7	MISSST	MISSST×4	Attack err	Mara Stiglic		+1.4
11	3-8	MISSST	MISSST×4	Kill	Cayley Hanson	set Ellie Stiernagle	+1.1
12	4-8	MISSST	NW	Kill	Mara Stiglic	set Ellie Stiernagle	+0.7
13	5-8	NW	NW	Blocked	Bernardita Aguilar	blk Mara Stiglic, Ellie Stiernagle	+1.3
14	5-9	NW	MISSST	Kill	Paloma Routaboul	set Cayley Hanson	+1.0
15	6-9	MISSST	NW	Kill	Mara Stiglic	set Ellie Stiernagle	+1.0
16	7-9	NW	NW	Attack err	Lindsey Mangelson		+1.7
17	7-10	NW	MISSST	Kill	Noella Obi	set Cayley Hanson	+1.3
18	8-10	MISSST	NW	Kill	Isabella Bullington	set Ellie Stiernagle	+1.3
19	8-11	NW	MISSST	Kill	Lindsey Mangelson	set Cayley Hanson	+1.3
20	8-12	MISSST	MISSST	Attack err	Isabella Bullington		+1.5
21	9-12	MISSST	NW	Kill	Isabella Bullington	set Ellie Stiernagle	+1.0
22	9-13	NW	MISSST	Kill	Bernardita Aguilar	set Cayley Hanson	+1.1
23	9-14	MISSST	MISSST	Attack err	Isabella Bullington		+1.2
24	10-14	MISSST	NW	Blocked	Paloma Routaboul	blk Hayley Schaaf, Ellie Stiernagle	+0.7
25	10-15	NW	MISSST	Serve err	Northwestern		+0.8
26	11-15	MISSST	NW	Kill	Hayley Schaaf	set Ellie Stiernagle	+0.7
27	11-16	NW	MISSST	Kill	Bernardita Aguilar	set Cayley Hanson	+0.8
28	11-17	MISSST	MISSST	Kill	Bernardita Aguilar	set Cayley Hanson	+0.8
29	12-17	MISSST	NW	Bad set	Lindsey Mangelson		+0.4
30	12-18	NW	MISSST×5	Kill	Cayley Hanson		+0.5
31	12-19	MISSST	MISSST×5	Kill	Cayley Hanson		+0.5
32	12-20	MISSST	MISSST×5	Attack err	Campbell Paris		+0.2
33	12-21	MISSST	MISSST×5	Blocked	Maya Stillwell	blk Noella Obi	+0.1
34	12-22	MISSST	MISSST×5	Attack err	Campbell Paris		·
35	13-22	MISSST	NW	Attack err	Noella Obi		·
36	13-23	NW	MISSST×3	Kill	Lindsey Mangelson	set Cayley Hanson	·
37	13-24	MISSST	MISSST×3	Kill	Lindsey Mangelson	set Mary Neal	·
38	13-25	MISSST	MISSST×3	Kill	Bernardita Aguilar	set Cayley Hanson	·
Set 4
1	1-0	NW	NW	Kill	Lauren Dignan	set Ellie Stiernagle	+1.7
2	1-1	NW	MISSST	Kill	Noella Obi	set Cayley Hanson	+1.1
3	2-1	MISSST	NW	Kill	Isabella Bullington	set Ellie Stiernagle	+1.3
4	2-2	NW	MISSST	Kill	Lindsey Mangelson	set Cayley Hanson	+1.2
5	2-3	MISSST	MISSST	Attack err	Isabella Bullington		+1.6
6	3-3	MISSST	NW	Kill	Hayley Schaaf	set Ellie Stiernagle	+1.2
7	4-3	NW	NW	Kill	Hayley Schaaf	set Ellie Stiernagle	+1.9
8	4-4	NW	MISSST	Serve err	Northwestern		+1.2
9	5-4	MISSST	NW	Kill	Mara Stiglic	set Ellie Stiernagle	+1.4
10	5-5	NW	MISSST	Serve err	Northwestern		+1.3
11	6-5	MISSST	NW	Kill	Ellie Stiernagle	set Ellie Stiernagle	+1.5
12	6-6	NW	MISSST×3	Blocked	Mara Stiglic	blk Gha'Naye Whitfield-Moss, Bernardita Aguilar	+1.3
13	6-7	MISSST	MISSST×3	Kill	Paloma Routaboul	set Cayley Hanson	+1.8
14	6-8	MISSST	MISSST×3	Attack err	Campbell Paris		+1.6
15	7-8	MISSST	NW	Kill	Maya Stillwell	set Mara Stiglic	+1.2
16	7-9	NW	MISSST	Kill	Paloma Routaboul	set Cayley Hanson	+1.1
17	8-9	MISSST	NW	Kill	Isabella Bullington	set Ellie Stiernagle	+1.2
18	8-10	NW	MISSST	Kill	Lindsey Mangelson	set Cayley Hanson	+1.2
19	9-10	MISSST	NW	Kill	Campbell Paris	set Ellie Stiernagle	+1.2
20	10-10	NW	NW	Kill	Isabella Bullington	set Ellie Stiernagle	+2.1
21	10-11	NW	MISSST	Kill	Noella Obi	set Cayley Hanson	+1.4
22	11-11	MISSST	NW	Serve err	Mississippi St.		+1.6
23	11-12	NW	MISSST×3	Kill	Lindsey Mangelson	set Cayley Hanson	+1.5
24	11-13	MISSST	MISSST×3	Attack err	Mara Stiglic		+1.9
25	11-14	MISSST	MISSST×3	Kill	Lindsey Mangelson	set Bernardita Aguilar	+1.6
26	12-14	MISSST	NW	Kill	Mara Stiglic	set Ellie Stiernagle	+1.1
27	12-15	NW	MISSST	Blocked	Mara Stiglic	blk Cayley Hanson, Gha'Naye Whitfield-Moss	+1.2
28	12-16	MISSST	MISSST	Kill	Lindsey Mangelson	set Cayley Hanson	+1.3
29	13-16	MISSST	NW	Kill	Ellie Stiernagle	set McKenna Yates	+0.8
30	13-17	NW	MISSST×4	Serve err	Northwestern		+0.9
31	13-18	MISSST	MISSST×4	Attack err	Mara Stiglic		+0.9
32	13-19	MISSST	MISSST×4	Attack err	Campbell Paris		+0.6
33	13-20	MISSST	MISSST×4	Kill	Paloma Routaboul	set Cayley Hanson	+0.3
34	14-20	MISSST	NW	Serve err	Mississippi St.		+0.1
35	15-20	NW	NW	Kill	Isabella Bullington	set Ellie Stiernagle	+0.3
36	15-21	NW	MISSST	Kill	Bernardita Aguilar	set Lindsey Mangelson	+0.3
37	16-21	MISSST	NW	Kill	Maya Stillwell	set Ellie Stiernagle	+0.2
38	16-22	NW	MISSST	Kill	Noella Obi	set Cayley Hanson	+0.3
39	16-23	MISSST	MISSST	Attack err	Clara Schramm		+0.2
40	17-23	MISSST	NW	Kill	Isabella Bullington	set Ellie Stiernagle	·
41	17-24	NW	MISSST	Kill	Lindsey Mangelson	set Cayley Hanson	+0.1
42	18-24	MISSST	NW	Serve err	Mississippi St.		·
43	18-25	NW	MISSST	Serve err	Northwestern		·

Score shown after each rally, Northwestern first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).

Mississippi St. def. Northwestern 3–1