Final · 4 setsTue, Sep 8, 2026

Mississippi St. def. Wake Forest 3–1

Mississippi St. won at Wake Forest 3-1 (25-18, 25-14, 21-25, 25-18) on Tue, Sep 8, 2026. Mississippi St.'s Lindsey Mangelson led with 16 kills, and McKenna Yates added 21 digs.

Data through · final Sep 8

Set1234Sets
MISSST252521253
WAKE181425181

Win probability

Wake Forest above 50 · Mississippi St. below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100+2.5% WAKErally 171 · set 4

Biggest swing: 2.5% to Wake Forest — set 1, MISSST 13-13 WAKE. Attack error by Lindsey Mangelson. WAKE win probability 18% → 21%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

MISSST 80.6%19.4% WAKE

Mississippi St. wins

3-0
32.1%
3-1
30.4%
3-2
18.1%

Wake Forest wins

3-0
3.1%
3-1
6.4%
3-2
9.9%
MISSST break %
44.9% vs this opp
WAKE break %
38.3% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Lindsey MangelsonAttack error+2.5%

    Attack error by Lindsey Mangelson

    Set 1 · MISSST 13-13 WAKE · WAKE 18% → 21%

  2. 02
    Lyla StewartAttack error+2.5%

    Attack error by Lyla Stewart

    Set 1 · MISSST 16-14 WAKE · MISSST 81% → 83%

  3. 03
    Bernardita AguilarAttack error+2.3%

    Attack error by Bernardita Aguilar

    Set 1 · MISSST 4-8 WAKE · WAKE 26% → 29%

  4. 04
    Lindsey MangelsonAttack error+2.3%

    Attack error by Lindsey Mangelson

    Set 1 · MISSST 3-6 WAKE · WAKE 24% → 26%

  5. 05

    Kill by Lindsey Mangelson (set by Cayley Hanson)

    Set 1 · MISSST 9-9 WAKE · MISSST 77% → 79%

  6. 06
    Emma KeepingBad set+2.3%

    Bad set by Emma Keeping

    Set 1 · MISSST 11-10 WAKE · MISSST 79% → 81%

  7. 07
    Amina NdiayeAttack error+2.2%

    Attack error by Amina Ndiaye

    Set 1 · MISSST 7-8 WAKE · MISSST 75% → 77%

  8. 08
    Lyla StewartKill+2.2%

    Kill by Lyla Stewart (set by Ava Roddey)

    Set 4 · MISSST 3-3 WAKE · WAKE 9% → 11%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
416547.23420214002117
412436.22240015002113
47013.53801210233.511.5
4203.667382390010.54.5
4001.000101710000
2206.333000000213
47325.16010000010.57.5
41011.0003012110001
36213.30810010010.56.5
2001.000100000000
2000–000100000
1000–000000000
Team totals5314146.2675139693212896
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
413637.18901215000014
48121.3330000014311
49836.02800010010.59.5
48217.35300100031.59.5
46528.036002110217
4104.2503101110010.51.5
4209.22200020031.53.5
4000–2132010001
4011-1.000100810000
2000–910300001
2000–100600000
1035-.600000000000
Team totals4726158.1334439673114875

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 6 MISSST · WAKE 4

Set 1

25-18

Longest run 3 MISSSTWAKE 3

Set 2

25-14

Longest run 5 MISSSTWAKE 2

Set 3

21-25

Longest run 3 MISSSTWAKE 4

Set 4

25-18

Longest run 6 MISSSTWAKE 3

Bars above the line = Wake Forest leads, below = Mississippi St. leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Mississippi St.

SlotSideout %Break %
1
56%10/18
50%8/16
2
64%9/14
52%11/21
3
67%8/12
43%6/14
4
80%8/10
43%6/14
5
57%8/14
33%4/12
6
88%7/8
61%11/18
All
66%50/76
48%46/95

Wake Forest

SlotSideout %Break %
1
50%10/20
50%9/18
2
47%8/17
25%3/12
3
62%8/13
33%4/12
4
47%8/17
33%4/12
5
57%8/14
20%2/10
6
50%7/14
33%4/12
All
52%49/95
34%26/76

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

171 rallies

#MISSST-WAKESrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
11-0WAKEMISSSTAttack errRyleigh Whitekettle+1.2
21-1MISSSTWAKE×3KillCatherine Burkeset Andrea Roman+1.2
31-2WAKEWAKE×3Attack errBernardita Aguilar+1.9
41-3WAKEWAKE×3KillRyleigh Whitekettleset Emma Keeping+2.1
52-3WAKEMISSSTKillLindsey Mangelsonset Cayley Hanson+1.3
62-4MISSSTWAKEServe errMississippi St.+1.5
73-4WAKEMISSSTServe errWake Forest+1.4
83-5MISSSTWAKEServe errMississippi St.+1.6
93-6WAKEWAKEAttack errLindsey Mangelson+2.3
104-6WAKEMISSSTServe errWake Forest+1.4
114-7MISSSTWAKEKillLyla Stewartset Emma Keeping+1.7
124-8WAKEWAKEAttack errBernardita Aguilar+2.3
135-8WAKEMISSST×3KillMcKenna Yatesset Paloma Routaboul+1.4
146-8MISSSTMISSST×3KillPaloma Routaboulset Cayley Hanson+2.1
157-8MISSSTMISSST×3Attack errAmina Ndiaye+2.2
167-9MISSSTWAKEKillSanaa Williamsset Emma Keeping+1.8
178-9WAKEMISSSTKillPaloma Routaboulset Cayley Hanson+1.6
189-9MISSSTMISSSTKillLindsey Mangelsonset Cayley Hanson+2.3
199-10MISSSTWAKEServe errMississippi St.+1.8
2010-10WAKEMISSST×3Attack errAmina Ndiaye+1.6
2111-10MISSSTMISSST×3Bad setEmma Keeping+2.3
2212-10MISSSTMISSST×3KillCayley Hansonset Mary Neal+2.1
2312-11MISSSTWAKEKillCatherine Burkeset Emma Keeping+1.5
2413-11WAKEMISSSTKillBernardita Aguilarset Cayley Hanson+1.5
2513-12MISSSTWAKEKillLyla Stewartset Emma Keeping+1.5
2613-13WAKEWAKEAttack errLindsey Mangelson+2.5
2714-13WAKEMISSSTAttack errLyla Stewart+1.8
2814-14MISSSTWAKEKillRyleigh Whitekettleset Emma Keeping+1.9
2915-14WAKEMISSST×3Serve errWake Forest+1.9
3016-14MISSSTMISSST×3Attack errLyla Stewart+2.5
3117-14MISSSTMISSST×3AceMississippi St.aced Dhru Lalaji+2.1
3217-15MISSSTWAKEKillSanaa Williamsset Emma Keeping+1.3
3318-15WAKEMISSST×3Serve errWake Forest+1.5
3419-15MISSSTMISSST×3Attack errAmina Ndiaye+1.6
3520-15MISSSTMISSST×3KillGha'Naye Whitfield-Mossset Cayley Hanson+1.1
3620-16MISSSTWAKEBlockedPaloma Routaboulblk Emma Keeping, Sanaa Williams+0.5
3721-16WAKEMISSSTBlockedLyla Stewartblk Paloma Routaboul, Gha'Naye Whitfield-Moss+0.7
3822-16MISSSTMISSSTBlockedAmina Ndiayeblk Cayley Hanson, Gha'Naye Whitfield-Moss+0.5
3922-17MISSSTWAKEKillCatherine Burkeset Emma Keeping+0.2
4023-17WAKEMISSSTAttack errAmina Ndiaye+0.3
4123-18MISSSTWAKEKillCatherine Burkeset Emma Keeping+0.1
4224-18WAKEMISSSTAttack errLyla Stewart+0.2
4325-18MISSSTMISSSTKillLindsey Mangelsonset Bernardita Aguilar+0.1
Set 2
10-1MISSSTWAKEKillRyleigh Whitekettleset Emma Keeping+1.0
21-1WAKEMISSSTKillGha'Naye Whitfield-Mossset Cayley Hanson+0.9
32-1MISSSTMISSSTBlockedCatherine Burkeblk Noella Obi+1.3
42-2MISSSTWAKEServe errMississippi St.+1.0
53-2WAKEMISSSTKillLindsey Mangelsonset Cayley Hanson+0.9
63-3MISSSTWAKEServe errMississippi St.+1.0
74-3WAKEMISSST×3KillLindsey Mangelsonset Cayley Hanson+0.9
85-3MISSSTMISSST×3KillPaloma Routaboulset Cayley Hanson+1.2
96-3MISSSTMISSST×3KillLindsey Mangelsonset Cayley Hanson+1.1
106-4MISSSTWAKEKillEmma Keepingset Mattea Saunders+0.8
117-4WAKEMISSSTKillBernardita Aguilarset Cayley Hanson+0.8
127-5MISSSTWAKEServe errMississippi St.+0.8
138-5WAKEMISSSTKillBernardita Aguilarset McKenna Yates+0.8
149-5MISSSTMISSSTKillPaloma Routaboulset Cayley Hanson+1.0
159-6MISSSTWAKEKillAmina Ndiayeset Emma Keeping+0.6
1610-6WAKEMISSSTServe errWake Forest+0.7
1711-6MISSSTMISSSTKillLindsey Mangelsonset Cayley Hanson+0.8
1811-7MISSSTWAKEKillRyleigh Whitekettleset Emma Keeping+0.5
1912-7WAKEMISSSTAttack errRyleigh Whitekettle+0.6
2012-8MISSSTWAKEKillCatherine Burkeset Emma Keeping+0.5
2112-9WAKEWAKEKillLyla Stewartset Emma Keeping+0.9
2213-9WAKEMISSST×3KillNoella Obiset Cayley Hanson+0.7
2314-9MISSSTMISSST×3Attack errLyla Stewart+0.8
2415-9MISSSTMISSST×3Attack errDhru Lalaji+0.6
2515-10MISSSTWAKEKillSanaa Williamsset Emma Keeping+0.3
2616-10WAKEMISSSTKillBernardita Aguilarset Cayley Hanson+0.4
2716-11MISSSTWAKEKillSanaa Williamsset Emma Keeping+0.3
2817-11WAKEMISSSTServe errWake Forest+0.4
2917-12MISSSTWAKEKillAmina Ndiayeset Emma Keeping+0.3
3017-13WAKEWAKEServe errWake Forest+0.6
3118-13WAKEMISSST×3KillBernardita Aguilarset Cayley Hanson+0.6
3219-13MISSSTMISSST×3Attack errCamille McCoy+0.5
3320-13MISSSTMISSST×3Attack errCamille McCoy+0.3
3420-14MISSSTWAKEKillAmina Ndiayeset Emma Keeping+0.1
3521-14WAKEMISSST×5KillAva Andersonset Cayley Hanson+0.2
3622-14MISSSTMISSST×5Attack errEmma Keeping+0.1
3723-14MISSSTMISSST×5Attack errCamille McCoy·
3824-14MISSSTMISSST×5Bad setAndrea Roman·
3925-14MISSSTMISSST×5KillAva Andersonset Cayley Hanson·
Set 3
10-1WAKEWAKE×4KillLyla Stewartset Emma Keeping+0.7
20-2WAKEWAKE×4Attack errBernardita Aguilar+0.8
30-3WAKEWAKE×4KillLyla Stewartset Dhru Lalaji+0.8
40-4WAKEWAKE×4AceWake Forest+0.8
51-4WAKEMISSSTKillNoella Obiset Cayley Hanson+0.5
61-5MISSSTWAKEKillSanaa Williamsset Emma Keeping+0.6
71-6WAKEWAKEAceWake Forestaced Mary Neal+0.8
82-6WAKEMISSSTKillBernardita Aguilarset Cayley Hanson+0.5
93-6MISSSTMISSSTKillNoella Obiset Cayley Hanson+0.8
103-7MISSSTWAKEKillSanaa Williamsset Ava Roddey+0.7
113-8WAKEWAKEAttack errBernardita Aguilar+0.9
124-8WAKEMISSSTKillNoella Obiset Cayley Hanson+0.5
135-8MISSSTMISSSTKillBernardita Aguilarset Lindsey Mangelson+0.8
145-9MISSSTWAKEKillAmina Ndiayeset Ava Roddey+0.7
156-9WAKEMISSSTKillPaloma Routaboulset Cayley Hanson+0.6
167-9MISSSTMISSSTKillPaloma Routaboulset Cayley Hanson+0.9
177-10MISSSTWAKEBlockedLindsey Mangelsonblk Sadie Poeck, Catherine Burke+0.7
188-10WAKEMISSSTAttack errRyleigh Whitekettle+0.6
199-10MISSSTMISSSTKillAva Andersonset Cayley Hanson+0.9
209-11MISSSTWAKEKillCatherine Burkeset Emma Keeping+0.8
2110-11WAKEMISSSTKillLindsey Mangelsonset Cayley Hanson+0.7
2210-12MISSSTWAKEKillCatherine Burkeset Emma Keeping+0.8
2310-13WAKEWAKEBlockedLindsey Mangelsonblk Ryleigh Whitekettle, Sanaa Williams+1.1
2411-13WAKEMISSST×3KillLindsey Mangelsonset Cayley Hanson+0.7
2512-13MISSSTMISSST×3BlockedSanaa Williamsblk Bernardita Aguilar, Noella Obi+1.0
2613-13MISSSTMISSST×3Serve errMississippi St.+1.0
2713-14MISSSTWAKEServe errMississippi St.+0.8
2814-14WAKEMISSSTKillLindsey Mangelsonset McKenna Yates+0.8
2914-15MISSSTWAKEKillLyla Stewartset Ava Roddey+0.9
3015-15WAKEMISSSTKillNoella Obiset Lyla Stewart+0.8
3115-16MISSSTWAKEServe errMississippi St.+0.9
3215-17WAKEWAKEAttack errPaloma Routaboul+1.4
3316-17WAKEMISSSTKillAva Andersonset Cayley Hanson+0.8
3417-17MISSSTMISSSTBad setAva Roddey+1.3
3517-18MISSSTWAKEBlockedAva Andersonblk Sadie Poeck, Catherine Burke+1.0
3617-19WAKEWAKEKillAmina Ndiaye+1.5
3718-19WAKEMISSSTKillCayley Hansonset Bernardita Aguilar+0.9
3819-19MISSSTMISSSTKillLindsey Mangelsonset Bernardita Aguilar+1.5
3919-20MISSSTWAKEKillRyleigh Whitekettleset Emma Keeping+1.2
4020-20WAKEMISSSTKillLindsey Mangelsonset Cayley Hanson+1.1
4120-21MISSSTWAKE×4KillLyla Stewartset Emma Keeping+1.4
4220-22WAKEWAKE×4BlockedLindsey Mangelsonblk Ryleigh Whitekettle, Sanaa Williams+2.0
4320-23WAKEWAKE×4KillLyla Stewartset Andrea Roman+1.7
4420-24WAKEWAKE×4KillRyleigh Whitekettleset Emma Keeping+1.1
4521-24WAKEMISSSTServe errWake Forest+0.2
4621-25MISSSTWAKEKillSanaa Williamsset Emma Keeping+0.6
Set 4
11-0MISSSTMISSSTKillAva Andersonset Cayley Hanson+2.0
21-1MISSSTWAKEKillLyla Stewartset Emma Keeping+1.5
32-1WAKEMISSSTServe errWake Forest+1.4
43-1MISSSTMISSSTAceMississippi St.aced Andrea Roman+1.9
53-2MISSSTWAKEKillLyla Stewartset Emma Keeping+1.4
63-3WAKEWAKEKillLyla Stewartset Ava Roddey+2.2
74-3WAKEMISSST×3KillLindsey Mangelsonset Bernardita Aguilar+1.5
85-3MISSSTMISSST×3KillNoella Obiset Cayley Hanson+2.0
96-3MISSSTMISSST×3BlockedSanaa Williamsblk Noella Obi+1.8
106-4MISSSTWAKEServe errMississippi St.+1.2
117-4WAKEMISSST×4KillBernardita Aguilarset Cayley Hanson+1.3
128-4MISSSTMISSST×4KillPaloma Routaboulset Cayley Hanson+1.6
139-4MISSSTMISSST×4KillAva Anderson+1.3
1410-4MISSSTMISSST×4Attack errAmina Ndiaye+1.0
1510-5MISSSTWAKEKillAmina Ndiayeset Ava Roddey+0.6
1611-5WAKEMISSSTBlockedAmina Ndiayeblk Bernardita Aguilar, Ava Anderson+0.7
1711-6MISSSTWAKEBlockedPaloma Routaboulblk Sadie Poeck, Catherine Burke+0.6
1811-7WAKEWAKEKillAmina Ndiayeset Andrea Roman+1.1
1912-7WAKEMISSSTKillBernardita Aguilarset Lindsey Mangelson+0.9
2012-8MISSSTWAKEKillAmina Ndiayeset Emma Keeping+0.8
2112-9WAKEWAKEKillLyla Stewartset Emma Keeping+1.5
2213-9WAKEMISSSTKillLindsey Mangelsonset Ava Anderson+1.2
2313-10MISSSTWAKEKillCatherine Burkeset Andrea Roman+1.1
2414-10WAKEMISSST×6KillBernardita Aguilarset Cayley Hanson+1.2
2515-10MISSSTMISSST×6BlockedRyleigh Whitekettleblk Lindsey Mangelson, Noella Obi+1.4
2616-10MISSSTMISSST×6KillBernardita Aguilarset Cayley Hanson+1.0
2717-10MISSSTMISSST×6Attack errLyla Stewart+0.6
2818-10MISSSTMISSST×6AceMississippi St.aced Ryleigh Whitekettle+0.4
2919-10MISSSTMISSST×6BlockedRyleigh Whitekettleblk Lindsey Mangelson, Noella Obi+0.2
3019-11MISSSTWAKEKillLyla Stewartset Emma Keeping+0.1
3120-11WAKEMISSSTKillBernardita Aguilarset Cayley Hanson+0.1
3220-12MISSSTWAKE×3KillSadie Poeckset Ava Roddey+0.1
3320-13WAKEWAKE×3KillAmina Ndiayeset Ava Roddey+0.1
3420-14WAKEWAKE×3AceWake Forestaced McKenna Yates+0.3
3521-14WAKEMISSSTKillNoella Obiset Cayley Hanson+0.3
3621-15MISSSTWAKEKillSanaa Williamsset Ava Roddey+0.1
3722-15WAKEMISSSTServe errWake Forest+0.2
3822-16MISSSTWAKE×3KillSadie Poeckset Ava Roddey+0.1
3922-17WAKEWAKE×3BlockedAva Andersonblk Catherine Burke+0.3
4022-18WAKEWAKE×3BlockedBernardita Aguilarblk Amina Ndiaye, Catherine Burke+0.6
4123-18WAKEMISSST×3Attack errAmina Ndiaye+0.7
4224-18MISSSTMISSST×3KillLindsey Mangelsonset Sydnie Waller+0.4
4325-18MISSSTMISSST×3KillLindsey Mangelsonset McKenna Yates+0.1

Score shown after each rally, Mississippi St. first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).